rigorousintuition.ca

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Killing 30 People
http://www.vbs.tv/blog/killing-30-people

Anonymous blogger Security Crank observed earlier this month that US and NATO air strikes in Afghanistan have a conspicuous tendency to kill 30 Afghan or Pakistani militants on every raid. Since last year, at least twelve bombers have returned reporting 30 Taliban dead, a probability of 1 in 1.12156655 × 10^-13 given ideal conditions (whatever that means when you’re bombing people). This, of course violates basic principles of probability and indicates some shady if not outright deceitful book keeping. Phony numbers make it impossible for anyone to judge the success of these campaigns. For what it’s worth, at least we’re not alone in our number grooming: search through this timeline of events in Pakistan for the number 30 and prepare for a real head spin. So when did 30 become a grim, magic number? 2003ish. And Why? For PR of course! In a 2007 interview with Salon, former Pentagon chief of high-value targeting Marc Garlasco said that any strike expected to kill more than 30 civilians needed clearance from either Donald Rumsfeld or GW Bush.

[smoking since 1879]

ok, i took the bait...