by starroute » Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:06 pm
Part of the answer, I think, is a "with enough eyes all bugs are shallow" kind of approach.<br><br>We all miss things. We're all capable of obsessing about things that don't really add up. But by laying our ideas out at a board like this, getting feedback, finding out whether what seems convincing evidence to us will also convince others, we're much less likely to get caught in blind alleys.<br><br>Another useful guideline for me comes out of the statement of the great linguist de Saussure: "A language is a system in which everything hangs together." Similarly, a conspiracy theory to be convincing has to hang together, with all the parts reinforcing one another and none of them working at odds. <br><br>If I suspect two people or groups of conspiring together today, I become more confident about that if I discover they also conspired together 20 years ago. If, on the other hand, I can't find any other connections between them, I let the suspicion go, or at least put it on the back burner. Human beings tend to conspire with people they know well and feel comfortable with -- they're very rarely willing to put that degree of trust in the hands of total strangers.<br><br>Taking that line of thought a step further, if I find that they were deadly enemies 20 years ago, I accept that as strong counter-evidence. I don't start theorizing that they were just pretending to be enemies as part of some sort of elaborate psy ops maneuver -- at least not unless I have a really good independent reason to think so.<br><br>Einstein is quoted as having said about the laws of physics that God may be subtle, but he is not malicious. In the same way, conspiracy theory as I understand it requires us to look for subtle connections -- but not to believe that the path is strewn with deliberate booby traps. The people doing it just aren't that clever or that original, and their ideas of security tend to run more towards blackmail or murder than towards Machiavellian obfuscation. <p></p><i>Edited by: <A HREF=http://p216.ezboard.com/brigorousintuition.showUserPublicProfile?gid=starroute>starroute</A> at: 3/24/06 5:08 pm<br></i>