trying to nail the start of WW3..

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trying to nail the start of WW3..

Postby bigearth » Fri Oct 31, 2008 11:29 am

Intelligence chief sees growing potential for conflict
Fri Oct 31, 2008 7:57am EDT

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By JoAnne Allen

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The risk of international conflict will increase in the next two decades as China, India and Russia become major powers and competition for resources grows, the top U.S. intelligence official said on Thursday.

The next 20 years of transition to a new international system will be fraught with risks and challenges with the rise of emerging powers and a historic transfer of wealth and economic power from West to East, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell told an intelligence conference in Nashville, Tennessee.


"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, demographics, access to natural resources, investments and technological innovation," McConnell said in a transcript of a speech provided by his office.

If current trends persist, by 2025, China will be en route to becoming the world's largest economy, a major military power and likely the world's largest importer of natural resources, McConnell said.

India and Russia would be close behind with more wealth and power, he said.

Economic and population growth will put increasing pressure on a number of strategic resources, such as energy, food and water.

"Just think about it: 1.4 billion people without these basic necessities will create significant tensions on the globe, tensions that world bodies and larger states will have to contend (with)," McConnell said.

"Given the confluence of factors from a new global international system, increasing tension over natural resources, weapons proliferation, things of this nature, we predict an increased likelihood for conflict," he added.

The official, who briefs the U.S. president daily on intelligence matters, said his agency had met with the two major presidential candidates, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, focusing mostly on terrorism.

McConnell said that immediately after Tuesday's election, the president-elect would start getting full daily intelligence briefings.

(Writing by Joanne Allen; Editing by Peter Cooney)

http://www.reuters.com/article/domestic ... TZ20081031
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Postby zhivkov » Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:45 am

bigearth, thanks once again for your contributions to this forum! China's position in world affairs intrigues me very much. On paper I know they are in a number of alliances with countries that on paper at least form a powerful anti-USA bloc. However I kind of feel that China is a fascist/capitalist police state parading under the banner of communism. If horrific WW3 type events ever start unfolding I wonder which treaty obligations they would honor. Who knows maybe all of them-I just still feel that China may have some surprises in store for the world as her power grows.
"you gave me in secret one thing to perceive, the tall blue starry strangeness of being here at all"-Franz Wright
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Postby bigearth » Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:28 pm

hi zhivkov :)

zhivkov wrote:China is a fascist/capitalist police state parading under the banner of communism.

ain't THAT the truth!

also don't forget what they are doing/have done the uyghur's, as well as the tibetans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uyghur_people

i actually see "china" as one big self-contained empire, already.

in reality, a very large part of western "china" should be carved off and denied them and their peoples set free. but that's just me, i think big like that!

zhivkov wrote:If horrific WW3 type events ever start unfolding I wonder which treaty obligations they would honor. Who knows maybe all of them-I just still feel that China may have some surprises in store for the world as her power grows.

well, i'm hoping civil unrest will undermine any sort of japanese-1940's-style imperliasm..e.g. (found today): Beijing neighbourhood campaign suffers blow


that kind of thing...india too has it's problems..

this whole inevitability of india and china becoming "superpowers" is, imho, nowhere near a forgone conclusion..


also, it has to be said..IF some sort of uber conflaguration with china DOES come to pass, 1.5bn muslims are gonna be FAR MORE useful to us than a few blue eyed "jews" in their miltary ghetto in palestine..but that's another subject ;)

don't forget that the chinese miltary now numbers some 200m.
. is it a wise man, who knows that he is not wise
. it's good to have cynicism but not be cynical
. the more truth you live with, in your life, the stronger you are
. intelligence is merely an attitude to knowledge and learning
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Postby zhivkov » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:33 am

I definitely agree about India and China. Every major power and bloc of powers on this planet have huge internal and external problems. This is what scares me so much about the competition for resources and struggle for internal control. I am worried it will just take a very small spark (probably a mistake) to set off a huge conflagration.
"you gave me in secret one thing to perceive, the tall blue starry strangeness of being here at all"-Franz Wright
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