what with all those old eastern european fascists dying out..
not saying she's much different, her parents were terrorists and possibly murdered british people (i've yet to get to the bottom of that one, but her parents certainly met whilst robbing a british train)..
Livni favourite to win Israel leadership
By Tobias Buck in Jerusalem
Published: September 16 2008 16:38 | Last updated: September 16 2008 16:38
Tzipi Livni, Israel’s foreign minister, enters a crucial party primary on Wednesday as the hot favourite to succeed Ehud Olmert both as boss of the centrist Kadima party and as the country’s next prime minister.
According to the latest polls taken among the party’s 74,000 members, Ms Livni is expected to trounce her main rival, Shaul Mofaz, and capture more than the 40 per cent that are required to avoid a second ballot. A poll published by Haaretz newspaper on Tuesday gave the popular foreign minister 47 per cent support against 28 per cent for the hawkish transport minister.
Kadima primaries
Profile of contenders
However, analysts warned against writing off Mr Mofaz, pointing out that with such a small electorate mobilisation was just as important as overall popularity. The former career soldier and general has made a point of courting local Kadima leaders and hopes to benefit from a high turn-out of his supporters.
Less than one in a hundred Israelis will vote in Wednesday’s primaries, yet few doubt that the outcome has the potential to shape national and regional politics for many years to come.
Mr Olmert, tarnished by a string of corruption allegations, has promised to step aside as prime minister of Israel in favour of the winner. Though both candidates may struggle to put together a governing majority, the new Kadima boss will therefore be the clear frontrunner to lead Israel at a pivotal moment for the Jewish state.
Above all, he or she will inherit two sets of potentially ground-breaking but unfinished peace talks started by Mr Olmert: one with the Palestinians, the other with the Syrian government. Israel’s next leader will also have to decide how to deal with the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme, and must secure the support of a new US president who starts his term early next year.
Both on political substance and on the tactical level, Kadima members face a clear choice: Keen to avoid an early election, Mr Mofaz wants to hold together the coalition government assembled by Mr Olmert, which ranges from the centre-left Labour party to the ultra-orthodox religious Shas party. However, that will require satisfying Shas’ demand for a generous rise in child welfare payments and greater support for the religious schools frequented by the group’s voters.
While Ms Livni would also prefer to hold together the current coalition, she is expected to reject Shas’ demands, which are unpopular with Israel’s moderate mainstream.
Polls show in any case that Ms Livni has far less to fear from early elections than Mr Mofaz: the latest batch of surveys indicate that Kadima led by Ms Livni would draw level with the right-wing opposition Likud party under former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu – a striking reversal from the party’s fortunes under Mr Olmert.
On the diplomatic front, too, there is a clear distinction. Ms Livni, though born into a ultra-nationalist family, has emerged as one of the most determined advocates of a peace agreement with the Palestinians and the creation of an independent Palestinian state. She wants to continue the negotiations started by Mr Olmert, in which she took a crucial role from the outset.
Mr Mofaz has also pledged to hold talks with the Palestinians, though that message has been overshadowed by an effort to present himself as the hard-headed defender of Israeli security interests. The Iranian-born minister, whose biggest asset is his military experience, also courted controversy by warning earlier this year that an Israeli military strike against Iran was becoming ”unavoidable”.
Shlomo Avineri, a professor of political sciences at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University and former top official in Israel’s foreign ministry, says: ”[Mr Mofaz] starts from a very nationalistic, hawkish, right-wing position. Mofaz’ statements about Syria, Iran and the Palestinians send a very hawkish message.”
Wednesday’s vote, Israeli commentators agree, is Ms Livni’s to lose. Yet even if she triumphs, Ms Livni may find that beating Mr Mofaz was far easier than overcoming the fragmentation and bitter divisions of Israeli politics and establish a workable - and enduring - government.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a5c94b18-8401 ... 07658.html
