Third White Buffalo

[JD]

This is pretty interesting:<br><br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/09/14/D8K4PNBO0.html" target="top">www.breitbart.com/news/2006/09/14/D8K4PNBO0.html</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>One farm births 3 white buffalo; each a 1 in a million shot. What's the odds of that? Answer is 1 x 10e18 if they are independant events.<br><br>All this while the red heifer crowd <!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.antiwar.com/justin/j041502.html" target="top">www.antiwar.com/justin/j041502.html</a><!--EZCODE LINK END-->, even employing advanced genetic engineering isn't having a lot of luck in getting the animal to fulfill their prophecies.<br><br>I wonder who's got the stronger medicine? <!--EZCODE EMOTICON START :rollin --><img src=http://www.ezboard.com/images/emoticons/roll.gif ALT=":rollin"><!--EZCODE EMOTICON END--> <br><br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.rense.com/1.imagesH/hmsec.jpg" style="border:0;"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>In all seriousness; I can't recommend enough the merits of spending time with indiginous people and learning about their cultures. The modern world is missing out on incredible age old gifts by ignoring them. <p></p><i></i>

[slomo]

They aren't independent events, if they're from the same farm. <p></p><i></i>

[greencrow0]

When are US going to call their aboriginals 'First Nations'.<br><br>Calling them 'Indians' is insulting and a misnomer.<br><br>gc <p></p><i></i>

[Sepka]

slomo said:<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>They aren't independent events, if they're from the same farm.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>It depends on what factors you'd consider as having a bearing on the colour of the calf. For my own part, I wouldn't grant that the ownership or geographic location of the animals has anything to do with birth colour. I think in terms of genetics, and possible factors like chemicals in the feed, etc. If they're all from the same genetic stock, then I'd not consider the births independent events.<br><br>The indian they interviewed plainly considered all of the births to be related events, but he's working from a much different frame of reference. To him, this is plainly a sign from God, and the births seem to be all part of a single event.<br><br>I have to wonder as well how large of a baseline the fellow from the breeding association is using when he characterizes white calves as one in a million. They haven't been bred domestically for that many years outside of zoos. It may not be so rare of a colour as he thinks. <br> <p>-Sepka the Space Weasel</p><i></i>

[woochisilence]

All three are from different lines. The only apparent relation is that they are all part of the same herd. <p></p><i></i>

[slomo]

I don't doubt this is a sign from (the)[G/g]_d(s). But, since they all appeared on the same farm, I would hesitate to classify them as independent events. If I did so in my daily life as a statistician, I would be professionally crucified.<br><br>I realize I'm being pedantic. I would tend to think that there is meaning behind these three white buffalo. But I hate it when people are sloppy with science, and call people on it when I have the expertise. <p></p><i></i>

[Sepka]

I'm sorry if you're offended, but I have to stand by my answer. The events are connected only if they share a common cause. Otherwise they're coincidence, however improbable. Being from that particular farm doesn't strike me as a reasonable explanation of <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>why</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> they're white. I'd certainly need some way (that makes sense within my frame of reference) to link the three events causally before I'd be prepared to declare them related.<br> <p>-Sepka the Space Weasel</p><i></i>

[slomo]

First of all, correlation and causation are not the same thing. [Unless you're prepared to cite the relevant passages of Pearl (2000), or the articles upon which the book is based, I would stick with the heuristic that events can be correlated without being causally linked.] All sorts of unmeasured variables can link the two events: genetic (even if the buffalo are from different "lines", if the "lines" themselves are genetically correlated relative to other buffalo, which given the geographic proximity I would not rule out) or environmental (food, water, etc.). Though I'd doubt that such environmental factors are in play. Still, if the "lines" (however they're defined) have common ancestors even several generations back, I would not presume the events to be uncorrelated.<br><br>I don't want to get into a big argument about this. I should have kept silent, since I usually do when I see all kinds of mathematical nonsense on this board.<br><br>I'll agree that white buffalo are rare and known to be a sign of coming apocalypse among native Americans of certain tribes. I'm willing to leave it at that, without trying to attach exact probabilities to the event. <p></p><i></i>

[slomo]

By the way, I am not ruling out the possibility that the events might be independent. But it would be erroneous to assume that they were. Such an assumption would simply not be made in statistical practice. Ever. <p></p><i></i>

[JD]

<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>Answer is 1 x 10e18 if they are independant events.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>Note the two letter word "IF"<br><br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>I see all kinds of mathematical nonsense on this board.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>In a sincere effort to minimize such nonsense, I qualified the statement with "IF". That is clarifying the assumption to which the calculation is made, right? Sorry but I can't make any other caluclation as I don't have any data set to make the assessment IF the events are independant or not, and certainly don't have data to adjust if they are non independant. Sorry.<br><br>Enough of silly arguing.<br><br>What is the common sense answer and meaning? OBVIOUSLY they CAN'T be independant or this never would have happened!! Like duh.... That is actually why I posted the number; to give a sense of the improbability of the event without some casual effect.<br><br>So the interesting thing is: why did it happen? What is the casual event?<br><br>Some comments have emerged - different moms and dads. That's interesting. As also noted; how far seperated? Don't know.<br><br>If they are widely genetically seperated this is very anomolous and merits a closer look.<br><br>Oh well, back to the sweat lodge.<br> <p></p><i></i>

[slomo]

Well, an attempt to attach a probability suggests the statistical formalism of a P value, with the null hypothesis being that the appearance of a white buffalo is just due to chance.<br><br>But really, if I understand buffalo breeding correctly (and in full disclosure that is very very far from my field of expertise) even one white buffalo is an extremely rare event. So much so that it qualifies as an alarming anomaly all by itself. Add to this the allah fish and a few other similarly weird events.<br><br>All that aside... JD, thanks for bringing this to the board's attention. Do you have any specifics on the meaning of three white buffalo in native american folklore (as opposed to one or two)? Is there a significance attached to numbers? I find that question much more interesting! <p></p><i></i>

[professorpan]

<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>Calling them 'Indians' is insulting and a misnomer.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>Not according to may Indians I've spoken to. Many prefer to be called Indians, and dislike "Native American." <p></p><i></i>

[dude h homeslice ix]

how.<br><br><br><br>i live within 100 miles of two or three of the biggest reservations in the united states, at least three nations with holdings larger than some states in the US.<br><br>you know what they call themselves? indians. "leave us out of your pc bullshit, pale face." thats what they say.<br><br><br><br>honest injun!<!--EZCODE EMOTICON START :lol --><img src=http://www.ezboard.com/images/emoticons/laugh.gif ALT=":lol"><!--EZCODE EMOTICON END--> <p></p><i></i>

[JD]

On the topic of Buffalo genetics, did any of you know that Buffalo Bill was only 1/4 buffalo?<br><br>I don't know about Grizzly Adams; maybe some readers know about his lineage.<br><br>OK back on thread now.......<br><br>There is a bunch 'o white buffalo links on the internet. I don't know first hand their veracity. <br><br>This is from a newspaper clip and describes the first (?) recored white buffalo birth in 1994:<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.kstrom.net/isk/arvol/whitbuff.html" target="top">www.kstrom.net/isk/arvol/whitbuff.html</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>This describes the legend and significance.<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://impurplehawk.com/legend.html" target="top">impurplehawk.com/legend.html</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>This 2001 link describes the <!--EZCODE UNDERLINE START--><span style="text-decoration:underline"><!--EZCODE BOLD START--><strong>9th</strong><!--EZCODE BOLD END--></span><!--EZCODE UNDERLINE END--> white buffalo calf since 1994. Quite a white buffalo explosion going on, hey?<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.ewebtribe.com/NACulture/articles/9thwhitebuffalo.htm" target="top">www.ewebtribe.com/NACulture/articles/9thwhitebuffalo.htm</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br> <p></p><i></i>

[dude h homeslice ix]

it really is interesting. there could be an explosion of bisonary augury a-burgeoning.<br><br>and again--no blood-red heifer to be found, despite the best efforts of the dna alchemists...<br><br><br><!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>when the thrasher comes i'll be stuck in the sun<br>like the dinosaurs and shrines<br>but ill know the time has come<br>to give whats mine...</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> <p></p><i></i>