by Dreams End » Mon Aug 14, 2006 1:54 am
Hubbert will discuss his work? I'd be interested in attending that lecture.<br><br>This thread, of course, is about Ruppert...so strictly speaking of Ruppert, wintler is on the same side as I am. One could argue that Ruppert is to legitimate peak oil as hologram plane theorists are to 9/11...allegedly on the same side, but discrediting the whole field by association...at least in the popular view. <br><br>We won't solve peak oil here...for one simple reason....economically speaking, as I've mentioned, true scarcity and the illusion of true scarcity will have the exact same impact on prices (and profits.) <br><br>This thread, of course, is about Ruppert...so strictly speaking of Ruppert, wintler is on the same side as I am. One could argue that Ruppert is to legitimate peak oil as hologram plane theorists are to 9/11...allegedly on the same side, but discrediting the whole field by association...at least in the popular view. <br><br>We won't solve peak oil here...for one simple reason....economically speaking, as I've mentioned, true scarcity and the illusion of true scarcity will have the exact same impact on prices (and profits.) Actually, I suppose that may not be true. Profits would be eaten by the accelerating costs of drilling post peak. However, the oilcos seem quite fat and happy at the moment.<br><br>But another useful distinction is no-hope peak oil vs. better act now peak oil. Ever read Rense? There are just a lot of people who are hungry for the latest truth that the world is about to end. Sure, they'll embrace peak oil, but also bird flu, Sars, asteroids...whatever. Spend a (short) time at Rense and see the breathless orgy of cataclysmic prophecies.<br><br>If there is no hope, then I'm really not sure why this debate matters at all. Maybe, just maybe, if you are completely off the grid and have a farm somewhere and are armed to the teeth you might survive the worst case scenarios as envisioned by sites such as the charmingly named "die-off.com"<br><br>So, those of you who embrace the end is near view...do tell us how you've planned to survive it. Or why this discussion even matters.<br><br>Others argue that we are near peak but we can mitigate the impact if we all act now. I can respect this position and even if it is wrong, it could have some very good effects, such as reducing the impact of fossil fuels on the environment. <br><br>But it can do harm as well. Recently, someone posted on a local peace group list here in Nashville about how the recent record profits of oil companies were not the oil company's fault. Just the fault of world events causing speculators to bid up the price. Which, as I've mentioned, ignored the very real possibilities that a. oil companies play a role in speculating or manipulating speculation about their industry since it does tend to help boost profits and b. oil companies might...just might....play a role in the same world events that leadActually, I suppose that may not be true. Profits would be eaten by the accelerating costs of drilling post peak. However, the oilcos seem quite fat and happy at the moment.<br><br>But another useful distinction is no-hope peak oil vs. better act now peak oil. Ever read Rense? There are just a lot of people who are hungry for the latest truth that the world is about to end. Sure, they'll embrace peak oil, but also bird flu, Sars, asteroids...whatever. Spend a (short) time at Rense and see the breathless orgy of cataclysmic prophecies.<br><br>If there is no hope, then I'm really not sure why this debate matters at all. Maybe, just maybe, if you are completely off the grid and have a farm somewhere and are armed to the teeth you might survive the worst case scenarios as envisioned by sites such as the charmingly named "die-off.com"<br><br>So, those of you who embrace the end is near view...do tell us how you've planned to survive it. Or why this discussion even matters.<br><br>Others argue that we are near peak but we can mitigate the impact if we all act now. I can respect this position and even if it is wrong, it could have some very good effects, such as reducing the impact of fossil fuels on the environment. <br><br>But it can do harm as well. Recently, someone posted on a local peace group list here in Nashville about how the recent record profits of oil companies were not the oil company's fault. Just the fault of world events causing speculators to bid up the price. Which, as I've mentioned, ignored the very real possibilities that a. oil companies play a role in speculating or manipulating speculation about their industry since it does tend to help boost profits and b. oil companies might...just might....play a role in the same world events that lead speculators to bid up the price. <br><br>War in the Middle East is great for oil profits...make more money on oil already extracted based on the fear that something might happen to disrupt the flow of future oil. <br><br>Disruptions in supply is great for the oil profits as the recent and "sudden" discovery, despite a decade of warnings, that the Alaskan pipeline might need a little maintenance. <br><br><br><br>The tough part is that the oil execs get the same benefit whether peak oil or any other oil disrupting calamity is real or not. So oil companies can make a huge profit when peak is coming or make a huge profit with the expectation of peak is coming. Matt Simmons, for example, makes his money by advising people who invest in the oil business. So if he knows that peak is coming...they make a killing. Or, if he and others can sell the idea of peak...they make a killing (though less of one until and unless the idea of peak starts to go mainstream...woops, guess it has.)<br><br>Meanwhile, I give up debating the actual merits of peak oil theory. I see contradictory data all the time...even in non peak related articles. Chavez said recently, for example, that they have lots of oil as long as the price stays at or above the curren level per barrel, making it feasible to extract this oil. I assume that the best data is very confidential. If there is suspicion that Dodgers stadium is on top of the biggest oil field ever found, I doubt we'd hear about it till all the games were played to keep the excess supply from driving down profits. I don't know much about the oil bidness, but if world events unfold to drastically LOWER the price of oil, and the price on current oil is set by speculating on oil not yet extracted, then it would be disastrous for news of major finds to leak out. That's not even conspiracy theory, that's just economics.<br><br>But I would challenge the peakers to do what I've not seen much of and that's let us know if there is anything that can be done. Those who say "no" should answer then why should we even worry. <br><br>It is convenient, isn't it, that if people think that all the world's ills are based on geology and not the deliberate choices by heardhearted corporate execs, they will give those execs a pass. <br><br>Last I heard, the current prices were based on limited REFINING capacity...which reminded me of Enron and the taking of various plants off the grid for repairs in order to gouge grandma. <br><br>Generally, governments act for the good of a fairly slender sector of the economy...the well off, of course. But they need many of the rest of us to do the work (just not as MANY of us as there are at the moment) so real doomsday scenarios with some substance behind them would be met by scrambling in various ways to head off doomsday. <br><br>Don't be too hard on this post...I just took two benadryl and they kicked in part way through so I'm pretty loopy. <p></p><i>Edited by: <A HREF=http://p216.ezboard.com/brigorousintuition.showUserPublicProfile?gid=dreamsend@rigorousintuition>Dreams End</A> at: 8/14/06 12:10 am<br></i>