Football World Cup, 2014

[stefano]

Shall we do this again? It was fun last time. Also lots of politics for those inclined to take their sport seriously. That arsehole Blatter looks on his way out at FIFA, not a decade too soon.

I didn't watch last night's game, from reports it was poorly refereed, with Brazil winning the penalty that allowed them to take the lead thanks to a dive.



Pity. I'll be having to pick the games I watch more carefully this year, having become a dad since last time, but am looking forward to Mexico-Cameroon this evening.

[jingofever]

Yay. Go USA. I did not watch the game but I see that there was a USA goal in the first minute followed by a Ghana goal at the eighty-second minute and another USA goal four minutes later. Start strong, end strong, the rest is filler, like a good screenplay. The USA probably will not win of course but after our pasting in Iraq and Afghanistan I will take any boost. In a few centuries I predict we will field a winning men's team. Our women are good now though, thanks to no WMLB or WNFL. Well, there is the Lingerie Football League but that unfortunately does not seem to be catching on.

Now for the conspiracy talk. Craig Murray says:

A Brazilian defeat would have been a disaster for FIFA, sharpening the Brazilian anti-corruption, anti-FIFA protest movement. A conspiracy theorist might say that explains the appalling refereeing decisions. Others might say that is nonsense and the referee was just honestly incompetent. As a complete neutral who loves football, my evening’s enjoyment was ruined either way. If the officials are going to behave like this, why not skip the next month and just give the cup to Brazil now?

A Daily Kos diary says:

Just like Italy needed to win in 2006, Brazil needs to win this year, and FIFA will make sure it happens.

The system works through undeserved penalty kicks.

In 2006, Italy was facing a massive corruption scandal. Italy was nearly eliminated by Australia but FIFA gave the game to Italy with an undeserved penalty kick, which is a near guarantee of a goal. This video tells the soccer story from 2006.

[stefano]

I saw that bit by Craig Murray last week... he's probably onto something. Although last night when Brazil faced Mexico, Raul Jimenez brought Marcelo down in the penalty area and the referee didn't give a penalty he could quite uncontroversially have blown. Maybe it's a good little experiment about how conspiracies work - they can't do exactly what they want openly, and they can't get everyone in on the plot, but they can use pressure points to make their desired outcome more likely.

It was a good game, even though it ended in a draw. Brazil looked good in the midfield but seem to have only one striker (Neymar), while Mexico looked sharper on the finishes (too many high and wide shots though) and defended beautifully. Their keeper had a terrific game.

As for this:

In 2006, Italy was facing a massive corruption scandal. Italy was nearly eliminated by Australia but FIFA gave the game to Italy with an undeserved penalty kick, which is a near guarantee of a goal. This video tells the soccer story from 2006.

That didn't give Italy the cup though, did it? That match was only in the second round, Italy won three more matches to win the tournament. France were looking to win the final, but then Zidane couldn't keep his cool... I'm pretty sure if he had stayed on France would have won. That was my impression at the time at least. But it's clearly true that FIFA wants to keep the sexy teams in until the playoffs for reasons of viewership, just like they couldn't allow Ireland to qualify instead of France in 2010.

[stefano]

[Penalty] Shoot-outs—the first of which, in the World Cup in Brazil, could be on June 28th—demand qualities rarely needed by footballers. The match proper is a team game, but a penalty kick is a lone endeavour. It allows time for agonised thinking, not least on the long walk from the team’s huddle towards the goal. It looks simple, yet the stakes are agonisingly high. A shoot-out, in other words, is a test less of athleticism or skill than of nerve.

Some nations are more jittery than others. A shoot-out was first used as a World Cup tie-breaker in 1982, and a clear pattern is visible. The English are at the bottom, with six losses out of seven shoot-outs in World Cup or European Championship tournaments (see chart). The Dutch, with four losses out of five, are also fairly dire. Conversely, the Germans have won all their four World Cup shoot-outs (in Britain, the notion that the Germans are invincible at penalties is among the few still-respectable national stereotypes). The Czechs are even more proficient: they have never missed a single kick in a penalty shoot-out.



What explains the national teams’ varying records? One theory is that defeat is habit-forming. The record suggests that players are more likely to miss if they—or even their team—have failed at penalties before. They become fatalistic, attribute the outcome to chance and neglect to prepare properly. As T.S. Eliot might have put it, between the penalty spot and the net falls the shadow.

Another explanation focuses on national cultures. Jon Billsberry of Deakin University in Australia argues that “countries that are collectivist in nature tend to do much better in penalty shoot-outs than those that are individualistic.” Mindful of their public images and anticipating recrimination from a merciless media, English players often buckle: they “contrive completely new ways to miss”, Mr Billsberry notes, such as falling over or hitting the ball with a shin. Research by Geir Jordet of the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences supports this ego-based theory: star players, he finds, are more likely to miss than less feted ones.

Statistical analysis offers insights into winning habits as well. Players are far more likely to fluff a kick that could have prevented them losing the match (by levelling the score) than one that will secure victory. Mr Jordet has also detected an “emotional contagion” among penalty-takers: when a player celebrates a successful kick by raising his arms in triumph, he makes his teammates more likely to score too—and his opponents less likely. Greg Wood of Liverpool Hope University finds that effective players tend to kick according to a plan, without regard for the goalkeeper’s movement. Most of the time, the team that shoots first in the alternating contest ends up winning—because playing catch-up makes their opponents’ task extra stressful.
__________
More football nerdiness from the Economist at this link: all 2,200 goals scored in World Cup finals, by minute of the match in which they were scored. If you hover over a goal the thing shows you all the goals scored in that game and the outcome.

I've only watched two games so far and really get the impression this year's cup isn't very popular. FIFA is widely hated, the Brazilians did well to show their unhappiness with the cost of the tournament there... and maybe people just have too much other stuff to think about. I'll make an effort for Germany-Ghana tomorrow night. Spain are out, as are England (barring some unlikely outcomes in Italy's next two games). Only Ivory Coast are still in with a shot of the African teams, and I don't really fancy any of the top-tier teams. I used to be a France supporter but not since their low-class fiasco in the 2010 cup under Raymond Domenech, of whom my lasting memory is that he refused to shake the SA coach's hand after France's loss in that game. Looks like I'll end up half-heartedly cheering for Mexico, but it is hard to care much this time.

[Belligerent Savant]

As for this:

In 2006, Italy was facing a massive corruption scandal. Italy was nearly eliminated by Australia but FIFA gave the game to Italy with an undeserved penalty kick, which is a near guarantee of a goal. This video tells the soccer story from 2006.

That didn't give Italy the cup though, did it? That match was only in the second round, Italy won three more matches to win the tournament. France were looking to win the final, but then Zidane couldn't keep his cool... I'm pretty sure if he had stayed on France would have won. That was my impression at the time at least. But it's clearly true that FIFA wants to keep the sexy teams in until the playoffs for reasons of viewership, just like they couldn't allow Ireland to qualify instead of France in 2010.

After Australia, Italy had to play against a very strong German team in the semi-final to make it to the final against France. That Italy-Germany game was a classic and no suspicious calls interfered with the outcome.



One can argue that the refs plausibly provided an 'assist' to Italy during that Australia game, but surely that wouldn't have been the first time in that tournament alone. Numerous games in each tournament are likely aided -- at least in part -- by either suspicious or simply faulty (due to human error) refereeing.

(though given how corrupt FIFA is, surely there's been manipulation over the years by 'paid' Refs, etc)

In any event, let's see how Italy fares against Costa Rica, kicking off in 20 minutes...

(on edit -- early returns aren't too good for the Italians... Costa Rica is outplaying them so far...)

[JackRiddler]

Costa Rica, wow!!!

Spain & England out, Italy to follow? Uruguay pressed hard yesterday against England, two really beautiful goals. Chile also very exciting. Although I like both Germany and Holland, hoping for a non-European year. I doubt it will be Brazil, though.

[conniption]

RT

Best fans at World Cup? Japanese clean up stadium after team’s matches (PHOTOS)

Published time: June 20, 2014


Japanese fan clean the tribune after a Group C football match between Japan and Greece at the Dunas Arena in Natal during the 2014 FIFA World Cup on June 19, 2014. (AFP Photo / Toshifumi Kitamura)

The football showdown between Japan and Greece ended in a scoreless draw, but the Japanese fans scored top points from the clean-up crew after leaving the stands of the stadium and its bathroom unblemished.

continued..

[JackRiddler]

[bks]

Am also reveling in the miserable results for Spain and England. Love what Cosa Rica has done, and I'd've really loved Ghana to beat Germany. Great game that was.

[JackRiddler]

Italy out! Along with Spain, England and almost surely Portugal.

In are Holland, France, Belgium and Germany (sure thing: they'd have to lose by six goals or something to the U.S.). Switzerland might. Greece not dead, only needs a convergence of miracles in the next few hours equivalent to a spontaneous levitation of Mt. Olympus. (Had to say that.)

In other words, four, maybe five, that's got to be the lowest number of European teams ever in the round of 16.

For the Latins, Brazil, Mexico, Chile (crazy bastards!), Uruguay, Costa Rica (!!!), Argentina are certain, and Ecuador has a shot. Six or seven! Let's for fun imagine Costa Rica wins it all. Ha!

[Laodicean]

Italy out!

Suarez bites again!

[JackRiddler]

Is Suarez a serial biter?

If they have to make a sort-of dodgy penalty call to take from Africa and give to Europe in minute No. 93, as is often the case, then at least it should be for Greece. The guy did not dive, however, he clearly tripped over himself while under pressure from behind. And now Greece won't play Italy or England, thanks to the giant-killer and next opponent, Costa Rica. One of these two is going to be in the final eight: Mindblowing! (As will Colombia or Uruguay, not quite as mindblowing.)

[JackRiddler]

HOW LOUD IS ASTORIA?

Surprising results!

1) Colombia (!) - very loud.
2) Brazil
3) United States
4) Greece
5) Mexico, Ecuador, Argentina, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Croatia... and Belgium (!)
6) Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, Germany.
7) Japan, Nigeria, Honduras (technically measurable volumes).
Everywhere else.

Analysis: This is without precedent, meaning the relative positions of Colombia and Greece. Sample area is not in the Greek heartland, however, but east of Steinway (low 40s) and at the borderlands to what's considered L.I.C. (Note: From a historical perspective, it's all L.I.C.) But damn, Colombia's entry into the knock-outs is very loud! Brazil's was not, despite massive popular support (biggest Brazilian population in New York). Greece's is not. Perhaps Italy was never loud because they sucked? Also, Portugal will probably do better when they're not playing United States. The latter's all-time high for loudness indicates a threshold has been crossed wherein almost as many here-borns are into this as immigrants.

[stefano]

If they have to make a sort-of dodgy penalty call to take from Africa and give to Europe in minute No. 93, as is often the case, then at least it should be for Greece. The guy did not dive, however, he clearly tripped over himself while under pressure from behind.

Yeah I don't think that was deliberate on the part of either the ref or the Greek dude. Still annoying though. Some good action in that game, but the Ivoirians always looked panicky and rushed when they were attacking, they wasted too much good ball, while the Greeks shut Drogba and Yaya Toure down very effectively. Well done Greece.

I'll try to watch Portugal-Ghana tomorrow, Portugal have been in miserable form so maybe there'll be a joyful upset there.

[Belligerent Savant]

.
Suarez is truly a spectacle to behold. And no card! The game simply continued with nominal delay.

They simply CAN'T suspend him in this tournament -- he'd draw too much of an audience to keep him out! The masses will be transfixed! What will Suarez do next?!
FIFA cares not for ethics.

Italy deserved to lose that game (and Prandelli -- rightfully -- promptly resigned post-game) as they were simply less than mediocre throughout.

Good for Greece! well-earned. I have relatives and friends in Astoria as well -- and grew up not far from Roosevelt Avenue -- so the chaos in both those locations cheering for Greece and Colombia can not be underscored. If either (or both) teams win their next games, either or both of those locales will be the primary destination for unbridled celebration.

Colombia looks good so far. France may be a dark horse, but we'll see if they can keep up their pace.

Holland seems to be a front-runner to go deep into this tournament.... and who can't root for Costa Rica? Gotta love the underdogs.