G7 Views Trump’s US as Rogue State as France Threatens a G6

[seemslikeadream]

G7 Views Trump’s US as Rogue State, as France Threatens a “G6” Memo

Juan Cole 06/08/2018
Trump’s 17th century mercantilist trade policies are making the United States the skunk at the party at the G7 meet in Quebec on Friday. Trump will skip the session on climate change. Trump has been needling Justin Trudeau, the PM of Canada, and Emmanuel Macron, the French president. Macron is needling back:


From 1998 to 2014, the G7 became the G8, as Russia was included in the club of “industrialized democracies.” President Vladimir Putin’s occupation of parts of the Ukraine in 2014, his illiberal tactics of rule, his crushing of the independent media, and a fall in oil prices made Russia less and less likely as a member of a club of “industrialized democracies,” and Moscow’s membership was suspended in 2014. The G8 then became the G7 again.

What Macron is saying is that the G7 could become the G6 if the other members decided to exclude Trump. It is a breathtaking idea, that the US should be treated by the major industrialized democracies as a rogue state in the same category as Putin’s Russia.

When Trudeau complained to Trump about the new tariffs he slapped on Canadian goods, saying he was especially upset that the pretext Trump used was that Canada formed a “national security threat” to the US, Trump replied, “didn’t you guys burn down the White House?” He was referring to an 1814 incident during the War of 1812 between the US and Britain. Canada only came into existence as a country in 1867.

Trump also repeatedly insists that the US runs a large trade deficit with Canada, importing more goods from that country than it sells to its northern neighbor. Those in the US who make that argument are typically counting third party goods imported into the US through Canada, which Ottawa considers an unfair accounting. The fact is that the US-Canada trade is almost equal, and if you count both goods and services, it is the US that runs the surplus.

Time says that the Office of the United States trade representative concludes that in 2016 the US exported $320.1 bn. of goods and services to Canada but only imported $307.6 bn from Canada. But let’s face it, in a $628 billion mutual trade relationship a $12 bn surplus on either side is trivial and certainly not worth having a trade war about.

https://www.juancole.com/2018/06/macron ... ns-g6.html

[peartreed]

Now that Donald (J for Juvenile) Trump has left the G7 Summit in Canada early, the world has once again been reminded that he is the epitome of The Ugly American.

Before arriving he announced that Russia should be allowed back in to the G8, despite the evicting charges of occupation of Crimea and incursion into Ukraine.

While in Canada he insulted host Prime Minister Trudeau as dishonest, and refused to sign the communiqué he and the other countries had agreed to unanimously endorse. He also did not attend the Climate Change and Environmental discussions but left hours early to fly to Singapore in order to arrive early to meet Kim Jong Un.

Reaction by Canadians and other nations in attendance was universal – the U.S. President now personifies every ugly stereotype of the arrogant American visitor.

Trudeau has announced that Canada will be imposing countervailing tariffs on July 1st to offset the punitive tariffs Trump imposed on Canadian aluminum and steel, alleging Canada is a security threat. Trudeau now refuses to be pushed around.

These will only be the beginning of Trump’s Trade War against his allies while he courts Putin, Russia and the world’s most abusive tyrant, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. France has already proposed kicking the USA out of the G7 and make it the G6.

It is time American voters wake up to the fact your President is a complete disaster and an embarrassment to civilized international government protocols, peace and global relations. He can not be trusted by his own allies as he courts our enemies.

The egomaniac clown must be removed from the world stage and returned to the freak show of reality television where he can perform.

[seemslikeadream]

The Madness of King Trump on Full Display at the G7

The Group of Seven is a club that is supposed to represent shared values. But, um, Trump doesn’t share any of them. No wonder he wanted his buddy Putin back in.

PARIS—British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson thought he was speaking off the record about the bull rampaging through the china shop of the fragile international order.

“I am increasingly admiring of Donald Trump,” Johnson told a closed meeting with fellow Tories a few days ago, unaware his remarks would be recorded and leaked. “I have become more and more convinced that there is method in his madness.”

Johnson, who’s been known for his own farcical antics and rhetorical bombshells, wondered aloud what would happen if Trump was running the Brexit negotiations with the European Union: “He’d go in bloody hard… There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos. Everyone would think he’d gone mad. But actually you might get somewhere. It’s a very, very good thought.”

Almost 17 months into the Trump presidency, even among world leaders once appalled by his pathological narcissism and aggressive ignorance, a certain level of acceptance has taken hold. To be sure, they once hoped the madness could be managed, but those days clearly are over. The “adults” in the Trump administration have mostly been expelled. Those who remain are letting Trump be Trump. And he’s having a ball. So the questions that are posed in the wider world are about isolating his craziness, enduring it, or like Boris Johnson embracing the madness as if it were just a game, a shrewd negotiating ploy.

In a provocative and prescient article published only a couple of weeks after the inauguration last year, psychologist David B. Feldman asked in Psychology Today, “Will we all just get used to Trump?” And, yes, despite continued talk of “the resistance,” that is exactly what’s happening at all levels of society.

“One of the oldest and most predictable phenomena observed by psychologists is habituation,” Feldman wrote. It is “the tendency of almost all organisms—from amoebas to human beings—to cease to respond to a stimulus after it has been repeated over and over.” He noted that “unlike past administrations that took controversial actions occasionally, with enough time between for the public to recover, the current White House does so continuously, on a seemingly minute-to-minute basis. Such repeated events create the perfect conditions for habituation to occur.”

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Body language at #G7

Many in the public may simply tune out, but heads of state and senior policymakers cannot do that, so confusion continues to reign, and that’s what we saw at the G7 on Friday and Saturday. It’s very likely that’s what Trump intended, which is crazy like a fox, or just crazy. Or conceivably both.

It’s as if seven people went to a club to play poker, and one of them, the richest, threw the deck in the air and announced they would play 52 pick-up instead. Everybody else in the room knows that this is nuts. They also know that for better or worse, they have to live with it. But maybe they won’t invite him back.

Amid headlines about tariff disputes, a basic fact is lost. The so-called Group of Seven “most industrialized countries in the world” is not just a club for the rich, but for leaders who traditionally assumed they shared the same basic values: belief in empirical facts, fundamental human freedoms, sacrosanct democratic processes, and the rule of law. All of which is to say it’s a club where Trump doesn’t fit in. He has shown he shares none of those values. Indeed, from the question of climate change to his dealings with Russia, he’s unapologetically hostile to them.

When French President Emmanuel Macron talked regretfully about making the G7, in fact, G6 plus one, he was essentially recognizing the fact that Trump doesn’t belong.

“The American President may not mind being isolated, but neither do we mind signing a 6 country agreement if need be,” Macron tweeted going into the summit. “Because these 6 countries represent values, they represent an economic market which has the weight of history behind it and which is now a true international force.”

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Emmanuel Macron Retweeted Emmanuel Macron
The American President may not mind being isolated, but neither do we mind signing a 6 country agreement if need be. Because these 6 countries represent values, they represent an economic market which has the weight of history behind it and which is now a true international force

So, what does Trump do when he comes across a club that doesn’t want him as a member? He starts his own. (Ask people in Palm Beach.) That may be what he had in mind when, as he set off for his hit-and-split visit to the G7 in Canada, he shouted to the press the need to bring Russia back into the group as “the G8.”

In fact, Russia never had a place there. Its economy by comparison with the G7 countries is insignificant, on a par with Australia’s. It was brought into the “G8” in 1997 as a gesture in hopes post-Soviet Russia would embrace, yes, the values of the G7. By 2014, under Vladimir Putin, that clearly was not the case: Putin seized Crimea, annexed it, and launched a war in eastern Ukraine that has cost more than 10,000 lives, including hundreds of innocents killed on a Malaysian airliner shot down by one of Putin’s anti-aircraft missiles. That’s why Russia was expelled from the G8, and that’s why it won’t be invited back.

But Trump is comfortable with Putin. He has made that more than clear. And he is comfortable with China’s Xi Jinping, whom he likes to call “my good friend.” Perhaps coincidentally, Putin and Xi met in Beijing on the eve of the G7, acting like besties, and signing $3 billion worth of nuclear energy deals. Would Trump have preferred to be there rather than in Canada? Very likely.

As Trump checked out of the G7 early, ostensibly so he could head off to Singapore for his “hot date with Kim Jong Un” (in the words of World Politics Review’s Judah Grunstein), the impression lingered that he was much more at ease with the tyrants who are America’s adversaries than with the leaders of the countries that have been its closest allies for the last 70 years.

In a parting shot that was just as implausible as the suggestion Russia be brought in from the cold, Trump said the G7 should do away with all tariffs. As the Financial Times reported, that left the other leaders “flummoxed.” This especially at a time when Trump has been promising to tax all German cars off the streets of the United States, even though most are assembled there in plants that employ tens of thousands of people in South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama…

Here’s the thing, nobody expects Trump to be rational anymore. And few people really believe this madness will end any time soon. Crazy as it sounds, the world is just getting used to him, and while Trump’s counterparts scramble for answers, the rest of us are left searching for a way to be, in the classic line from Pink Floyd, “comfortably numb.”

Post Script: June 10, 2018, 4:00 AM EDT

Reporters, including those on Air Force One en route to the Kim Jong Un summit in Singapore, were told that the United States would sign the G7's anodyne joint declaration. But no. Trump went into a rage aboard the plane, apparently after watching a press conference held by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the conclusion of the summit, which Trump had not bothered to attend.

There are two basic issues here.

One is about Canada's dairy tariffs, which are definitely protective and have grown worse for U.S. farmers after Canadian regulators moved to close a huge loophole. The Globe and Mail published a very useful explainer a few weeks ago.

The other issue is the judgment — and indeed the sanity — of a President of the United States who would publicly rebuke one of his country's closest allies with tweets like this:

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Based on Justin’s false statements at his news conference, and the fact that Canada is charging massive Tariffs to our U.S. farmers, workers and companies, I have instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique as we look at Tariffs on automobiles flooding the U.S. Market!

and this ...

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PM Justin Trudeau of Canada acted so meek and mild during our @G7 meetings only to give a news conference after I left saying that, “US Tariffs were kind of insulting” and he “will not be pushed around.” Very dishonest & weak. Our Tariffs are in response to his of 270% on dairy!

At a dinner with journalists in early March, before the announcement that he would indeed meet with North Korea's leader, Trump addressed the question of what it would be like to negotiate with a person reputedly as crazy as Kim.

“As far as the risk of dealing with a madman is concerned, that’s his problem, not mine,” Trump said.

The line was reported as a joke.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-madne ... -at-the-g7

ON THE EVE OF THE JUNE 9 TRUMP TOWER MEETING ANNIVERSARY, PUTIN TELLS TRUMP TO KEEP HIS CAMPAIGN PROMISES

June 10, 2018/3 Comments/in 2016 Presidential Election, Foreign Policy /by emptywheel


I’ve long argued that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump engage in a kind of signaling, perhaps fueled by some kind of back channel.

With that in mind, I wanted to look at the last few days of public statements. First, in an interview recorded Thursday, Putin was asked whether he was beginning to prepare for a summit with Trump. Among other things, Putin said that Trump knows how to listen even in spite of what the reporter cued as “domestic pressure,” and fulfills his campaign promises. Putin said Trump promised to improve Russian-American relations but the ball was in the American court. (This WaPo story on the interview may have better translations of the Russian.)

Two short clarifications on the events of the last week, and I understand that there is very little time. Recently, on the air of “Vesti on Saturday”, information appeared with reference to The Wall Street Journal, which, in turn, referred to sources in the White House that the Americans had begun training – as they say, at an early stage – to Trump’s meeting with you . Have you started this training?

“This was discussed from the very beginning, after the election of Mr. Donald Trump as President of the United States.” And we from the very beginning responded to this, that we believe that such personal meetings are expedient, and not only possible. We met with the President of the United States at international venues. Of course, this does not give an opportunity to give due attention to Russian-American relations. In general, I think this meeting is useful. The only question is that the domestic political situation in the United States allows this.

– And how to deal with them, given that Trump is largely hostage to the domestic political process? Even if you meet and agree, they will let him carry out what you potentially negotiate?

“The experience I have with the President of the United States suggests that, despite the fact that his actions are often criticized, especially recently, including in the international arena and in the sphere of the economy, after all this experience tells me that he is a thoughtful man, he knows how to listen and responds to the arguments presented by the interlocutor. All this gives me reason to believe that dialogue can be constructive.

– Recently he received the closest allies: German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Macron. And the meetings, especially with Macron, were caress in the flesh, embraces, almost kisses and so on. And then it takes literally a week and a half, and it was worthwhile for the Europeans to raise their voice, including, I think, because of this, what you call sanctions, in particular, increased tariffs for aluminum and steel , is introduced . Are not you afraid of such “affectionate” embraces of Americans who now say: let’s prepare a meeting, and then you will meet with Trump, you will be exposed to such conditions. Or with you this will not work?

– The fact is that this does not pass with anyone. And the relationship between the leaders of states should be acceptable, civilized. But this does not preclude the adoption of decisions that this or that leader consider important and expedient for his country. It is possible to treat differently the decisions that are made in the United States, including the US president. You can criticize. Indeed, there is much that deserves criticism. But there is one circumstance about which I have already spoken: Trump fulfills his promises given to them during the election campaign.

– With one exception: to improve Russian-American relations.

– One of the promises is to improve Russian-American relations. I hope that this too will take place. In any case, we are ready for this. The ball, I believe, on the American side, on the American court.

On Friday, Trump said that Russia should be readmitted into the G-7, just before he premised leaving the G-7 early based on whether the other countries capitulate on tariffs.

Q (Inaudible) G6-plus-one?

THE PRESIDENT: It may be. You can call it anything you want. It doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter what you call it. It used to be the G8 because Russia was in it. And now Russia’s not in it.

Now, I love our country. I have been Russia’s worst nightmare. If Hillary got in, I’d think Putin is probably going, “Man, I wish Hillary won.” Because you see what I do. But, with that being said, Russia should be in this meeting. Why are we having a meeting without Russia being in the meeting? And I would recommend, and it’s up to them, but Russia should be in the meeting. They should be a part of it.

You know, whether you like it or not — and it may not be politically correct — but we have a world to run. And in the G7, which used to be the G8, they threw Russia out. They should let Russia come back in. Because we should have Russia at the negotiating table.

Q Mr. President, why did you decide to cut (inaudible) short?

THE PRESIDENT: Say it? What?

Q You’re leaving a little early from the summit. Why did you decide (inaudible)?

THE PRESIDENT: I may leave a little bit early. It depends on the timing. But I may leave a little bit early. And it depends what happens here.

Look, all of these countries have been taking advantage of the United States on trade. You saw where Canada charges our dairy farmers 270 percent tariffs. We don’t charge them, or if we do, it’s like a tiny percentage. So we have to straighten it out.

We have massive trade deficits with almost every country. We will straighten that out. And I’ll tell you what, it’s what I do. It won’t even be hard. And in the end, we’ll all get along.

But they understand. And you know, they’re trying to act like, “Well, we fought with you in the war.” They don’t mention the fact that they have trade barriers against our farmers. They don’t mention the fact that they’re charging almost 300 percent tariffs. When it all straightens out, we’ll all be in love again.

Trump acted like a sullen toddler throughout the G-7, agreed to the communique, then backed out, blaming Justin Trudeau, ostensibly for publicly saying Canada would adopt retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump’s steel tariffs. (Trudeau had spoken most forcefully against readmitting Russia). On leaving, he reiterated his support to readmit Russia, even in spite of their actions in Crimea.

Q Mr. President, David Herszenhorn with Politico Europe. Just to come back to Russia for a second. Something that happened that got them kicked out of the G8 was the invasion and annexation of Crimea. Do you think that Crimea should be recognized as Russian (inaudible)?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, you know, you have to ask President Obama, because he was the one that let Crimea get away. That was during his administration. And he was the one that let Russia go and spend a lot of money on Crimea, because they’ve spent a lot of money on rebuilding it. I guess they have their submarine port there and such. But Crimea was let go during the Obama administration. And, you know, Obama can say all he wants, but he allowed Russia to take Crimea. I may have had a much different attitude. So you’d really have to ask that question to President Obama — you know, why did he do that; why did he do that. But with that being said, it’s been done a long time.

Q But you would allow Russia back into the G8 with Crimea still (inaudible)?

THE PRESIDENT: I would rather see Russia in the G8 as opposed to the G7. I would say that the G8 is a more meaningful group than the G7, absolutely.

As Putin was leaving the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, after making comments about Trump’s trade wars hurting Europe, Putin again said he was ready to meet, though said it is important that the summit be “filled with specific content.”

Question: Mr President, there is real drama unfolding around the G7 summit in Quebec and inside the G7 itself: disagreements over Russia’s possible return, over tariffs, and more controversy. In this regard, how do you assess the proposal made by Trump and the Italian Prime Minister on Russia’s return to the format, given that the purchasing power parity in the SCO is actually higher than in the G7?

Vladimir Putin: As for Russia’s return to the G7, or G8 – we have never withdrawn from it. Our colleagues refused to come to Russia at some point for well-known reasons. We would be happy to see everyone in Moscow, they are welcome. That is first the first thing.

Second. As for the efficiency and volume of the economy, indeed, the purchasing power parity (this is IMF data) of the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is already higher than in the G7 countries. Yes, it is, the PPP is higher.

True, the seven are still richer in per capita income, as they say, but the SCO economies are larger, and their population is much larger, too – half the world’s population.

As for the various difficulties in the negotiation process within the G7, I need to take a look at this, I do not know the details. Of course, this is also of interest, these are the largest economies in the world.

We can see that there are internal problems there. Well, it happens. You know, when I look at our debates in the EAEU, we also have disputes and do not unanimously sign everything at the same time. I think this is common practice. It is necessary to deal with this calmly and without any irony.

I would draw attention to one more circumstance, which, in my opinion, is more significant than any emotional outbursts. What do I mean? As far as I know, the President of the United States said the US is considering the possibility of regulating the additional supply of automotive equipment in the US market.

This is a serious matter. This can really hurt the economic interests of so many countries, above all European, of course. Well, let us see how things will really unfold. This is of significant importance for the entire world economy.

[snip]

Question: There have been reports that Austria is ready to host the US-Russia summit between you and Donald Trump. Can you confirm this? Perhaps you discussed this when you were in Austria? And when will you meet with Trump? Everyone is looking forward to it. Many problems have accumulated.

Vladimir Putin: The President of the United States has repeatedly said that he considers this meeting expedient, and I agree that this is indeed the case. I can reiterate, in our last telephone conversation he expressed his concern about the threat of a new round of the arms race. I agree with him.

But to discuss this specifically, our respective foreign ministries need to work, and experts need to work very closely together. Personal meetings are certainly necessary as well. As soon as possible. As soon as the American side is ready, this meeting will be held immediately, depending on my work schedule.

About the location. We did not talk about this in detail, but many countries are willing to render such assistance to us, including several European countries, Austria among them. I have not heard anything else. But I think this is a technicality. What is important is that the meeting, if it takes place, is filled with specific content.

Given the way Trump blew up the G-7, I really wonder whether Putin has a greater threat over Trump than we know — something far, far greater than the goddamned pee tape. Trump has always seemed anxious to reassure Putin that he, himself, is not under investigation (indeed, that seemed to be one reason Trump raised the Comey firing at the May 10, 2017 meeting with Sergei Lavrov). It’s almost as if, as Robert Mueller gets closer and closer to Trump, Putin raises the stakes as well.

And this weekend, after Putin demanded that Trump keep his campaign promises, Trump made havoc of a key alliance.

Whatever Putin has over Trump, Trump appears more afraid of Putin than he is of Mueller.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/06/10/o ... -promises/