The Syria Thread 2011 - Present

[seemslikeadream]

Syria War Spills Across Borders into Turkey, Lebanon
Turkey Claims Deliberate Attack on Refugee Camp
by Jason Ditz, April 09, 2012

As Syrian rebel factions continue to lose ground to the military, fighting increasingly spills over to neighboring countries. This puts civilians on both sides of the border in the line of fire, resulting in deaths in both Turkey and Lebanon.

Two people were killed in Turkey, and four others wounded by Syrian military fire at the border near the Kilis refugee camp. Turkey’s government claims that the attack deliberately targeted the camp, but earlier reports suggested that it was simply fire that strayed across the border.

Meanwhile, Syrian troops attacked and killed a TV cameraman in neighboring Lebanon, firing across the border between the two nations. The incident occurred in Wadi Khaled, an area frequently used by Syrian rebels to hide from Assad’s forces and stage attacks into Syrian territory.

People with the camera crew said they explained to the Syrian troops that they weren’t fighters. Syrian state media reported that a nearby border post had come under attack shortly before the shooting.

Such incidents will surely embarrass the Syrian military, particularly coming just days before a scheduled ceasefire. But as fighting moves out of central cities and into the border regions, Turkey and Lebanon, too, could be dragged into the maelstrom.

[seemslikeadream]

US Pushing ‘Libya Model’ for Upcoming Syria War
Clinton Demands More Sanctions on Syria During Ceasefire
by Jason Ditz, April 19, 2012

One week in, the UN-brokered ceasefire in Syria seems to be holding. That doesn’t mean the Obama Administration can’t dream, however, of a day when the ceasefire collapses and they can use it as an excuse to attack.

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta says that the administration is looking to last year’s Libya war as a model for intervention in Syria, but that this depends on being able to secure international support for the attack.

This is likely to be much more difficult because of Libya, as many in the UN Security Council didn’t realize that an authorization for a no-fly zone in Libya would quickly snowball into a war of regime change. There is no illusion this time, and those opposed to the war have been careful to reject any nebulous language in UN resolutions specifically to prevent the US from starting this war.

Further complicating the “Libya model” is what a disaster Libya is actually turning into, with the rebel factions NATO installed at the end of the war engaging in wholesale human rights violations and fighting one another, seemingly on the verge of a new civil war at any given time.

In the meantime, US officials aren’t waiting for the ceasefire to actually end to escalate the rhetoric, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton demanding a new round of sanctions against the Assad regime and a full arms embargo to punish it for “non-compliance” with the ceasefire, even though by all accounts the ceasefire actually is still in effect. Clinton conceded that the resolution is almost certain to be vetoed but as usual didn’t appear to understand why.

[seemslikeadream]

Russia prepares army for Syrian deployment
By Clara Weiss (WSWS). Les Blough (Axis of Logic)
WSWS. Axis of Logic
Tuesday, Jun 12, 2012

Editor's Comment: In her analysis below, Clara Weiss reports that Russia is preparing its military for intervention against the US and NATO in Syria. On May 31 we commented on The War on the Syrian People:

"With this in mind [a new anti-war movement], an important question for us at the moment is whether Vladamir Putin in Russia and the Chinese government will take a stand. They will probably veto any attempt to justify war against the Syrian people at the UN. But what then? Regardless, the West will no doubt continue their march against Syria and ultimately Iran unless and until they are stopped. Will Russia and China stand by and allow the West to bomb their allies, so important to both countries and on Russia's front door? Will Putin be shooting down war jets over Syria? Will China become involved militarily? If Russia and China permit it - it will mean one of two things: Surrender or Complicity. If they defend Syria militarily .... Well, that is how close we may be to world conflagration.

12 days later we read the first hint of the possibility of Russian intervention and of President Putin's visit with Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing, "to jointly strengthen 'security in the Asia-Pacific region'." Who will act first - Russia/China against the US backed insurgents or a Libyanesque US/NATO bombing campaign?

If Russia and/or China defend Syria militarily will the US and NATO blink ... or will hell break loose? The latter possibility may sound alarmist and overly dramatic. But what can be more dramatic than the 11 year onslaught of the US/NATO military machine in North Africa, Asia and the Middle East? The aggressive and we would argue, psychotic behavior of the western imperialists shows no sign of abatement. Throw into the mix the religious freaks, Christian millenialists and Zionists itching for the ultimate showdown with Iran while resting their trigger finger on Israel's nuclear arsenal ... The alternatives appear to be some sort of political solution or Russia and China rolling over and letting the US, Israel and NATO have their way with them ... and us.

- Les Blough, Editor

12 June 2012
Russia prepares army for Syrian deployment
By Clara Weiss
WSWS

Given the worsening crisis in Syria, the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper reported that the Russian army is apparently being prepared for a mission in Syria. Citing anonymous sources in the military leadership, the newspaper said that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the general staff to work out a plan for military operations outside Russia, including in Syria.

The units being prepared for an intervention are the 76th Division of airborne forces (an especially experienced unit of the Russian army), the 15th Army Division, as well as special forces from a brigade of the Black Sea fleet, which has a base in the Syrian port of Tartus.

The details of the operational plan are being prepared by the working parties of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, to which most of the post-Soviet states belong, as well as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to which China and Russia belong.

According to the newspaper report, deployment depends on the decision of the Russian government and the UN. However, the plans also foresee that the troops might intervene without UN approval. The Russian government has so far not confirmed the report.

On Monday last week, three Russian warships were sighted off the Syrian coast. An anonymous source from the Russian government told the Iranian newspaper Tehran Times that Moscow wants to show NATO that it will not allow any military operation against Damascus under the guise of a humanitarian mission.

Earlier, the secretary-general of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Nikolai Bordjusha, had held out the possibility of using “peacekeepers” in Syria. “The task in Syria is likely to be to impose peace—primarily against the insurgents, who use weapons to solve political problems.”

Russia and China strongly oppose a military intervention by NATO in Syria, and have already blocked two UN resolutions on the issue. The US and its allies, especially Turkey, Saudi Arabia and France, have stoked up a civil war in Syria and are systematically arming the so-called rebels, who consist mainly of Islamists, ex-members of the government, or Al Qaeda terrorists. Turkey is increasingly leadership of the US proxy war in Syria.

See: Report: Rebels Responsible for Houla Massacre
In recent weeks calls for a military intervention in Syria have increased. After the massacre in Houla, French President Francois Hollande spoke out in favour of military intervention. The West blamed the government of Bashar al-Assad for this massacre without any clear evidence. The German elite is also openly discussing a possible military intervention; Berlin has tried unsuccessfully to push Russia to make concessions on the issue.

Russia has not excluded a “political solution”, i.e., the slow transition from the Assad regime to another government. At all costs, however, the Kremlin wants to avoid the violent overthrow of Assad by the West for several reasons, whether it is through direct military intervention by NATO or is brought about by the rebels armed by the West. Two weeks ago, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned that a military intervention in Syria could quickly escalate and lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

Since Soviet times, Moscow and Syria have maintained close ties, especially in military and economic matters. More importantly, however, a war against Syria means a ramping up of US aggression in the Middle East. The US has already significantly extended its influence in the region through the wars against Afghanistan and Iraq. They also have military bases in almost every country in the area: Pakistan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Turkmenistan, as well as some in other smaller states. Meanwhile, Syria and Iran, which are virtually surrounded by US military bases, have become the last bastions of Russia and China in the Middle East against the encroachment of the United States.

A regime change in Damascus would probably bring a Sunni government to power, which would work closely with Saudi Arabia and the United States against Russia and China. Moreover, an escalation of the civil war in Syria—which is already well underway—and a military intervention would set the entire Middle East ablaze. A NATO-led war against Syria would be an immediate prelude to a war against Iran. An attack on Iran would mean another step toward a military escalation of tensions between Washington and Beijing.

While China obtains a significant portion of its raw material imports from Iran, Tehran is Russia’s most important ally in the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea to counter the influence of the US and Israel. Both Moscow and Tehran oppose the construction of a trans-Caspian pipeline by the West. They also reject the massive military rearmament of Azerbaijan, which is promoted by the United States, Israel and Turkey. The Caspian region is of key geopolitical importance because it links resource-rich Central Asia with Europe, and because it also has extensive oil and gas reserves.

The growing threat of war in the Middle East—and the fact that the European countries, including Germany and France, are siding with the United States—is increasingly driving Russia into a military alliance with China.

It is significant that Vladimir Putin’s first foreign visit since taking office was to Belarus, and that he then only spent a few hours in Berlin and Paris before going on to Central Asia. The highlight of his visit abroad was in China, where he met with the Chinese president, and then took part at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on June 6 and 7. In addition to Russia and China, the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan also belong to this organization; Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India have “observer” status.

As was the case at the previous meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, discussion at the SCO summit centred on military and economic cooperation. The summit adopted a declaration on the “establishment of a region of lasting peace and common prosperity”. Military intervention against Syria or Iran was explicitly rejected.

The declaration also condemns the establishment of the NATO missile defence system in Europe, which is directed primarily against Russia and has led to severe tensions between Washington and both Europe and Moscow. In future, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is planning to cooperate militarily more closely on issues of “regional security”.

During his two-day visit to Beijing, Putin had previously agreed with Chinese President Hu Jintao to jointly strengthen “security in the Asia-Pacific region”. Both countries intend to hold frequent joint military exercises in the Pacific, after holding joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea in the spring. The United States is increasingly focussing its military build-up in the Asian Pacific region in preparation for a military confrontation with China.

[NeonLX]

^^^^
Yikes!

[seemslikeadream]

Israel wary of turmoil, calls for military action
June 11, 2012

TEL AVIV: A senior Israeli minister on Sunday made the state’s most explicit call yet for military intervention to topple president Bashar Al Assad and accused him of committing genocide to suppress the 15-month-old uprising against his rule.

Vice Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz urged world powers to oust Assad in the same way that last year’s Western-backed campaign in Libya overthrew former strongman Muammar Qadhafi. “A crime against humanity, genocide, is being conducted in Syria today. And the silence of the world powers is contrary to all human logic,” Mofaz told Israel’s Army Radio.

“Since in the not-distant past the powers chose military intervention in Libya, here the required conclusion would be immediate military intervention to bring down the Assad regime.” Israel had so far taken a cautious line on the uprising in its Arab neighbour.

But with Israeli public opinion appalled by media reports of mounting Syrian civilian deaths, some officials had begun to suggest privately that they would welcome foreign military intervention.

Comments by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, however, suggested that concerns about Iran may be starting to predominate in Israel’s calculations.

“This is a slaughter carried out not only by the Syrian government. It is being helped by Iran and Hezbollah,” he said in broadcast remarks to his cabinet.

Israel’s comments on Syria come at a time of intense frustration with the west’s failure to curb Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iran dismisses accusations it is secretly developing nuclear arms and has vowed wide-ranging reprisals if attacked, raising the spectre of a Middle East war in which Syria and Hezbollah would support Tehran against Israel.

Ehud Yaari, Middle East correspondent for Israel’s top-rated Channel Two television, described Syria as a test-case for international resolve in the Middle East.

“When you see the lassitude (by world powers) regarding goings-on in Syria, you cannot but draw discouraging conclusions about their readiness to act to stop Iran,” he said.

Israeli officials other than Mofaz have preferred to frame prospective foreign intervention in Syria in terms of humanitarian aid.

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon on Sunday offered Israeli relief to Syrian refugees - either in countries like Jordan and Turkey that recognise Israel, or in Israel itself.

[seemslikeadream]

US official: Russia sends troops to Syria as peace hopes fade

Days before President Barack Obama's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, there has been a war of words between the U.S. and Syria's longtime military supplier. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.
By Jim Miklaszewski, NBC News, and msnbc.com news services

Russia is sending armed troops to Syria amid escalating violence there, United States military officials told NBC News Friday, in a move certain to frustrate Western efforts to put pressure on the regime of President Bashir Assad.

Moscow has sent a ship carrying a small contingent of combat forces to guard Russia’s deep-water port and military base at the Syrian city of Tartus, the US officials said.

The U.S. officials also said Russia has not sent additional attack helicopters to the Syrian government, but replacement parts for the Russian helicopters the Syrians are already flying.

Follow @msnbc_world

It comes after the conflict was declared by France on Wednesday to be a full-blown civil war.

The head of the U.N. observers in Syria said Friday a recent spike in bloodshed is derailing the mission to monitor and defuse more than a year of violence and could prompt the unarmed force to pull out.

"Violence over the past 10 days has been intensifying willingly by the both parties, with losses on both sides and significant risks to our observers," Maj. Gen. Robert Mood told reporters in Damascus. "The escalating violence is now limiting our ability to observe, verify, report as well as assist in local dialogue and stability projects."

Tartus is one of Russia’s most strategically-important assets, giving it military access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Russia and China, both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council with veto power, frustrated attempts by key Western figures, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to enforce a United Nations peace plan brokered by special envoy Kofi Annan.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday repeated Moscow's strong opposition to external interference in Syria, said it was not discussing plans for a Syrian political transformation following the exit of Assad.

PhotoBlog: Inside Syria

At a news conference after talks with his Iraqi counterpart, Lavrov said he had seen reports saying U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland had suggested Washington and Moscow were discussing a post-Assad strategy in Syria.

"If that was really said then it's not true," Lavrov said. "Such discussions are not being held and cannot be held, because to decide for the Syrian people contradicts our position completely.

"We do not get involved in overthrowing regimes - neither through approval of unilateral actions by the U.N. Security Council nor by participation in any political plots."

Nuland was asked at a news conference on Thursday whether the United States and Russia were discussing a transition of power similar to that seen in Yemen last year, in which President Ali Abdullah Saleh was replaced by a deputy.

"We are continuing to talk about a post-Assad transition strategy in that context," she said.

Government forces in Syria have driven rebel fighters out of the town of Haffa near the Turkish border and are now allowing UN monitors to enter the area. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

Lavrov said any broad international talks on Syria must include Iran and must only address ways to create conditions for a political dialogue in Syria - not the content of that dialogue or preconditions such as Assad's exit.

Russia, which has come under increasing criticism from the West for arms deliveries to Syria, responded to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's allegations that attack helicopters were on the way from Russia to Syria.

In a statement on the Foreign Ministry website, Russia said it had made no new deliveries of military helicopters to Syria but under old contracts it had repaired helicopters sent to Syria "many years ago".

"There are no new deliveries of Russian military helicopters to Syria. All arms industry cooperation with Syria is limited to a transfer of defensive arms," the ministry said on its website.

"As regards helicopters, planned repairs of (helicopters) delivered to Syria many years ago were conducted earlier," it said. It did not say when they had been repaired or, if they were repaired in Russia, when they were returned to Syria.

Inside Syria: War-torn city of Homs scarred by violence, riddled with fear

Syria's ambassador to Russia said on Thursday Russia had not sent new attack helicopters to Syria.

Russia says it is fulfilling existing contracts for air defense systems against external attacks. President Vladimir Putin, due to meet U.S. President Barack Obama next week, said the weapons Russia sends could not be used in civil conflicts.

A source close to Russia's arms exporting monopoly Rosoboronexport said Clinton's comments may have referred to helicopters sent to Russia in 2009 for repairs and which may be on the way back to Syria.

The source said on Wednesday at least nine Mi-25 helicopters were sent to Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad to be repaired by Oboronservis, owned by the Defense Ministry.

Russia delivered three different missile systems including Bastion anti-ship missile units and another anti-aircraft system to Syria last year.

At least two ships carrying Russian weapons have reportedly travelled to Syria since the beginning of the year, though possibly not on behalf of state arms exporter Rosoboronexport.

[Simulist]

"Hail, Hail, the Gang's All Here."

[seemslikeadream]

Russia Sending Air and Sea Defenses to Syria
By ANDREW E. KRAMER
Published: June 15, 2012

MOSCOW — The chief of Russia’s state-controlled arms exporter said on Friday that his company was shipping advanced defensive missile systems to Syria that could be used to shoot down airplanes or sink ships if the United States or other Western nations try to intervene to halt the country’s spiral of violence.

“I would like to say these mechanisms are really a good means of defense, a reliable defense against attacks from the air or sea,” Anatoly P. Isaykin, the general director of the company, Rosoboronexport, said Friday in an interview. “This is not a threat, but whoever is planning an attack should think about this.”

His remarks come just days after Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton raised diplomatic pressure on Russia, Syria’s patron, by criticizing the Kremlin for sending attack helicopters to Damascus, and amid reports that Moscow was preparing to send an amphibious landing vessel and a small company of marines to the Syrian port of Tartus, to provide security for military installations and infrastructure, if it becomes necessary.

While the weapons systems are not considered cutting edge, the words and actions added to a cold war chill that has been settling over relations between Washington and Moscow since President Vladimir V. Putin took power from his more accommodative predecessor, Dmitri A. Medvedev.

Aleksander Golts, an independent military analyst in Moscow, said the Russians’ discussion of defensive weapons shipments “undoubtedly” serves as a warning to Western countries contemplating an intervention.

“Russia uses these statements as a form of deterrence in Syria,” he said. “They show other countries that they are more likely to suffer losses.”

Throughout the Syrian crisis, Russia has insisted that all its arms sales to the isolated government of Bashar al-Assad have been defensive in nature and that the weapons were not being used in the Syrian leader’s vicious campaign to suppress the opposition.

Mr. Isaykin underlined the point, but in a way that could also be interpreted as a warning to the West against undertaking military action of the sort that ousted Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi from power in Libya, something that Mr. Putin viewed as a breach of sovereignty that he does not want repeated.

Yet, as news reports of government massacres emerge almost daily from Syria, the prospect of the United States or NATO acting unilaterally has become a more frequently discussed option, particularly given Russia’s adamant refusal to authorize more aggressive United Nations action.

With President Obama coming under election-year pressure from Republicans to act to halt the violence in Syria, the topic is likely to be discussed by the president and Mr. Putin at a scheduled meeting next week on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in the Mexican resort of Los Cabos.

Mr. Isaykin, a powerful figure in Russia’s military industry, openly discussed the weapons now being shipped to Syria: the Pantsyr-S1, a radar-guided missile and artillery system capable of hitting warplanes at altitudes well above those typically flown during bombing sorties, and up to 12 miles away; Buk-M2 anti-aircraft missiles, capable of striking airplanes at even higher altitudes, up to 82,000 feet, and at longer ranges; and land-based Bastion anti-ship missiles that can fire at targets 180 miles from the coast.

Military analysts immediately questioned the effectiveness of the air defenses Russia has made available to the Middle East, including Syria, none of which have offered even token resistance to Western forces.

Ruslan Aliyev, an authority on military affairs at the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, said that statements by Mr. Isaykin and others were issued principally for political effect. Moscow has declined to supply Syria with its most lethal air defense, the S-300 long-range missile system.

“As far as I understand, Syria is not able to defend itself from NATO, just like it failed to defend its nuclear facility from Israel’s September 2007 airstrike,” Mr. Aliyev wrote in an e-mailed response to questions. “Russian armaments are unlikely to be significantly helpful, I’m afraid.”

Since Mrs. Clinton’s statement, both sides have sought to play down the helicopters’ significance, saying they were of marginal military utility. A State Department spokeswoman, Veronica Nuland, said Thursday that the secretary was referring to three helicopters that were returned recently to Syria after being refurbished in Russia.

In the interview, Mr. Isaykin said that the contract to overhaul the helicopters was signed in 2008, was never secret and had been reported to international organizations. “It was an absolutely routine contract,” he said.

Syria has spent about $500 million annually in recent years on Russian weaponry, Mr. Isaykin said in the interview, an order book that amounts to about 5 percent of Rosoboronexport’s business.

For nearly a decade, Mr. Isaykin said, Rosoboronexport had no Syrian orders for rifles, ammunition, ground-to-ground rockets, helicopters and their onboard weapons or armored vehicles — the basic tools of a conflict that is escalating into civil war.

The Middle East, he said, is “flooded” with Soviet-style small arms, often made in knock-off versions by the Chinese or Eastern Europeans, elbowing Russia out of this market.

The Russian arms trade business with Syria has depended in recent years on large and complex anti-aircraft systems. They violate no United Nations sanctions, he said, and cannot be used against civilians in a domestic conflict.

“We just send them to Syria,” he said. “Ask the Syrians where they put them.”

[8bitagent]

CNN: Pentagon completes planning for Syria if it ever comes to that
http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/1 ... for-syria/

[seemslikeadream]

Ship 'carrying Russian attack helicopters to Syria' halted off Scotland
Russian-made attack helicopter The ship was allegedly carrying Russian-made attack helicopters

The UK has made moves to stop a cargo vessel allegedly carrying refurbished Russian-made attack helicopters from completing its journey to Syria.

The MV Alaed had its insurance withdrawn by The Standard Club in London while it was about 50 miles (80.4km) off Scotland's north coast.

The insurer said it had sought more information on the boat's cargo.

Withdrawal of insurance prevents the MV Alaed from sailing until its owner can secure new cover.

It was thought that the vessel had stopped off the Western Isles.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) said it was unclear where the vessel would now go.

The Russian embassy in London has not yet commented.

The UK and US have raised concerns with Russia about shipments of weapons to Syria, which is subject to a European Union arms embargo.

In a statement, the FCO said: "We are aware of a ship carrying a consignment of refurbished Russian-made attack helicopters heading to Syria.

"The foreign secretary made clear to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov when they met on 14 June that all defence shipments to Syria must stop.

"We are working closely with international partners to ensure that we are doing all we can to stop the Syrian regime's ability to slaughter civilians being reinforced through assistance from other countries."
'Carrying weapons'

The Standard Club said it believed the MV Alaed had been off the coast of the Western Isles when insurance was withdrawn.

It said the cover was withdrawn because the owners of the ship had "broken internal rules" of the club - a mutual insurance association - and not on the instructions of the UK government.

In a statement, it said: "We were informed on Friday evening that the ship might be carrying weapons, in particular attack helicopters, missiles and non-specific munitions, and we are making inquiries to establish what their side of the story is.
HMS York and Admiral Kuznetsov. Pic: Reuters/Royal Navy/MoD HMS York tracked Russian vessels sheltering in the Moray Firth last year

"There are exclusion clauses in our cover and, for anyone involved in improper or unlawful trade, we can cancel cover.

"We are investigating whether or not to do so in this case."

In December last year, Russian warships and support vessels believed to have been headed for Syria took shelter in Scotland's Moray Firth during bad weather.

HMS York tracked aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, a destroyer, two frigates, an ocean-going tug and three oil tankers until the task group left and headed into the Atlantic.

[seemslikeadream]

Iran, Syria, Russia, China plan naval drill in Mediterranean

Countries' militaries to stage large-scale maritime maneuvers off Syrian coast. Drill to include 90,000 soldiers, submarines, aircraft, tanks and warships

Ynet
Published: 06.19.12, 12:37 / Israel News

Joint military drill amid violent crackdown – The armies of China, Russia, Iran and Syria are planning to hold naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean Sea over the next few weeks, Iranian news agency Fars reported Tuesday.

According to the report, 90,000 soldiers from the four countries will take part in the large-scale maritime war games, which will be held off the Syrian coastline.

The military maneuvers will include naval and anti-aircraft forces, as well as 400 aircraft, 900 tanks, Iranian submarines, minesweepers, warships and Russian destroyers.

The report also stated that Egypt has agreed to allow 12 Chinese warships to pass through the Suez Canal, adding that the military convoy is scheduled to dock in Syrian ports over the next two weeks.

Meanwhile, negotiations between the six powers and Iran are not yielding progress, and could end sooner than scheduled. Russian and Iranian diplomats speaking to the press hours after talks kicked off in Moscow said that the sides are grappling to iron out differences and that the atmosphere was "not positive."

The EU delegation spokesman told reporters that world powers were sticking by a previous demand for Iran to halt enriching uranium to 20% – a level approaching that needed to make an atomic bomb.

[DrVolin]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18561219

Syria confirms it shot down a Turkish F4. Things are heating up a bit.

[ninakat]

^^^ heating up indeed.

Escalation: Syria Says Turkish Jet Shot Down Was Over Syrian Territorial Waters
Zero Hedge, 6/22/12

The "Syrianna" story from this afternoon, which many were quick to label as merely a lot of diplomatic hot air and rhetoric, just turned uglier, after Syria not only did not officially apologize as Turkey PM Erdogan implied had happened previously for the shot down Turkish F-4 fighter jet, but instead turned the tables on Turkey, and gave itself an out for what is now a definitive military action.

(continues)

[Aldebaran]

Oh boy

C.I.A. Said to Aid in Steering Arms to Syrian Opposition
June 21, 2012
WASHINGTON — A small number of C.I.A. officers are operating secretly in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which Syrian opposition fighters across the border will receive arms to fight the Syrian government, according to American officials and Arab intelligence officers.

The weapons, including automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition and some antitank weapons, are being funneled mostly across the Turkish border by way of a shadowy network of intermediaries including Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood and paid for by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the officials said.

The C.I.A. officers have been in southern Turkey for several weeks, in part to help keep weapons out of the hands of fighters allied with Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups, one senior American official said. The Obama administration has said it is not providing arms to the rebels, but it has also acknowledged that Syria’s neighbors would do so.

The clandestine intelligence-gathering effort is the most detailed known instance of the limited American support for the military campaign against the Syrian government. It is also part of Washington’s attempt to increase the pressure on President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who has recently escalated his government’s deadly crackdown on civilians and the militias battling his rule. With Russia blocking more aggressive steps against the Assad government, the United States and its allies have instead turned to diplomacy and aiding allied efforts to arm the rebels to force Mr. Assad from power.

By helping to vet rebel groups, American intelligence operatives in Turkey hope to learn more about a growing, changing opposition network inside of Syria and to establish new ties. “C.I.A. officers are there and they are trying to make new sources and recruit people,” said one Arab intelligence official who is briefed regularly by American counterparts.

American officials and retired C.I.A. officials said the administration was also weighing additional assistance to rebels, like providing satellite imagery and other detailed intelligence on Syrian troop locations and movements. The administration is also considering whether to help the opposition set up a rudimentary intelligence service. But no decisions have been made on those measures or even more aggressive steps, like sending C.I.A. officers into Syria itself, they said.

The struggle inside Syria has the potential to intensify significantly in coming months as powerful new weapons are flowing to both the Syrian government and opposition fighters. President Obama and his top aides are seeking to pressure Russia to curb arms shipments like attack helicopters to Syria, its main ally in the Middle East.

“We’d like to see arms sales to the Assad regime come to an end, because we believe they’ve demonstrated that they will only use their military against their own civilian population,” Benjamin J. Rhodes, deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, said after Mr. Obama and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir V. Putin, met in Mexico on Monday.

Spokesmen for the White House, State Department and C.I.A. would not comment on any intelligence operations supporting the Syrian rebels, some details of which were reported last week by The Wall Street Journal.

Until now, the public face of the administration’s Syria policy has largely been diplomacy and humanitarian aid.

The State Department said Wednesday that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton would meet with her Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, on the sidelines of a meeting of Asia-Pacific foreign ministers in St. Petersburg, Russia, next Thursday. The private talks are likely to focus, at least in part, on the crisis in Syria.

The State Department has authorized $15 million in nonlethal aid, like medical supplies and communications equipment, to civilian opposition groups in Syria.

The Pentagon continues to fine-tune a range of military options, after a request from Mr. Obama in early March for such contingency planning. Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told senators at that time that the options under review included humanitarian airlifts, aerial surveillance of the Syrian military, and the establishment of a no-fly zone.

The military has also drawn up plans for how coalition troops would secure Syria’s sizable stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons if an all-out civil war threatened their security.

But senior administration officials have underscored in recent days that they are not actively considering military options. “Anything at this point vis-à-vis Syria would be hypothetical in the extreme,” General Dempsey told reporters this month.

What has changed since March is an influx of weapons and ammunition to the rebels. The increasingly fierce air and artillery assaults by the government are intended to counter improved coordination, tactics and weaponry among the opposition forces, according to members of the Syrian National Council and other activists.

Last month, these activists said, Turkish Army vehicles delivered antitank weaponry to the border, where it was then smuggled into Syria. Turkey has repeatedly denied it was extending anything other than humanitarian aid to the opposition, mostly via refugee camps near the border. The United States, these activists said, was consulted about these weapons transfers.

American military analysts offered mixed opinions on whether these arms have offset the advantages held by the militarily superior Syrian Army. “The rebels are starting to crack the code on how to take out tanks,” said Joseph Holliday, a former United States Army intelligence officer in Afghanistan who is now a researcher tracking the Free Syrian Army for the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.

But a senior American officer who receives classified intelligence reports from the region, compared the rebels’ arms to “peashooters” against the government’s heavy weaponry and attack helicopters.

The Syrian National Council, the main opposition group in exile, has recently begun trying to organize the scattered, localized units that all fight under the name of the Free Syrian Army into a more cohesive force.

About 10 military coordinating councils in provinces across the country are now sharing tactics and other information. The city of Homs is the notable exception. It lacks such a council because the three main military groups in the city do not get along, national council officials said.

Jeffrey White, a defense analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who tracks videos and announcements from self-described rebel battalions, said there were now about 100 rebel formations, up from roughly 70 two months ago, ranging in size from a handful of fighters to a couple of hundred combatants.

“When the regime wants to go someplace and puts the right package of forces together, it can do it,” Mr. White said. “But the opposition is raising the cost of those kinds of operations.”

Neil MacFarquhar contributed reporting from Beirut, Lebanon. Souad Mekhennet also contributed reporting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/21/world ... nted=print

[8bitagent]

Besides Sandusky verdict, the big story today was Saudi Arabia says it'll fund the Syrian militias. It feels like things are all too conveniently nesting around Syria...possible CIA involvement with the rebels, Saudi involvement, Israel weighing in, Russian and Chinese troops plus Russian equipment in tow. My gut feeling tells me that like most things, it'll blow over but remain developing story for awhile.