Supply Chains

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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:02 pm

The peak oil movement was before my time but I got a dose of it in Michael Ruppert's Crossing the Rubicon. As I remember he quite literally gave 2020 as the year things would start to collapse.

I actually tried to revive an old peak oil thread on here but there wasn't much interest. And if you had to reduce everything happening right now to one thing, an eneregy crisis masquerading as a climate crisis would be a pretty good bet in my view.

I think people forget what we are living in an industrial civilisation. Not a capitalist or socialist one. Or an authoritarian or free one. Those are all subcategories. And all things growing only grow towards death.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:39 am

One thing the last two years have demonstrated clearly is that people are indeed prepared to accept huge restrictions and make huge sacrifices when they believe there is a life-threatening global emergency. They want to help. They are weary of their bullshit jobs and dying to do something worth doing. The sickest thing is how their naive trust and willingness have been abused. Just imagine if Gates, Schwab, Biden, Trudeau and all the other wise Philosopher Kings who rule us, rob us, exploit us, terrorise us and lie to us routinely had instead condescended to tell us the truth about real threats such as peak oil, soil depletion, state terrorism, big pharma, mechanised medicine, and the CIA.

This really is a revolutionary moment. No compromise is possible with these liars. Everything must change. Whatever does or doesn't happen in the Ukraine, we are already deep into WW3, a depraved ruling class's war on humankind. It was launched in late 2019 but planned long beforehand, and truth was its first casualty.

(on edit: revised first few lines for clarity.)
Last edited by MacCruiskeen on Sun Feb 13, 2022 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Sun Feb 13, 2022 2:31 am

Casedemic, Testdemic...
Reuters, Sun 13 Feb 2022

... Hong Kong authorities said supplies of vegetables and chilled poultry to the global financial hub may be temporarily disrupted after some mainland goods vehicle drivers preliminarily tested positive for Covid-19.

Hong Kong imports 90% of its food ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... g-outbreak
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Sun Feb 13, 2022 3:16 am

You can see it all crescendo into something too convoluted to be understood by 99% of people.

Pandemic + Freedom Protests + Whatever happens with Russia & Ukraine = all the distractions needed to start some serious prolonged austerity measures as we enter into the post-pandemic debt and inflation hangover.

The right can blame the lockdowns. The left can blame the freedom protests. Markets can blame the Chinese or Russians.

All ideology driven emotive debates ignoring the fact that any one of them could read about the underlying issue in white papers periodically released that cover what is being done to them on the economic policy front.

The Western elites must be begging Putin to invade Ukraine and he's been holding out for a better deal.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:12 am

Low Oil Inventories Suggest Imminent Supply Deficit

The European gas crunch began when it emerged that the continent's gas inventories were running unseasonably low in the autumn. The whole world saw what this started.

Now, it's global inventories of crude oil that are running low.

Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley said it had calculated that observable crude oil inventories globally shed some 690 million barrels in 2021 and were now at the lowest in more than five years.

"However, with a constructive demand forecast and relatively cautious expectations for Opec+ supply, we expect inventories to end 2022 lower still," the investment bank said, as quoted in an Argus report from earlier this month.

Then, also this month, the International Energy Agency reported on a gap between its global inventory calculations and the actual inventory situation. According to the report, global crude oil inventories had declined by 200 million barrels more than the agency had estimated they would.

One reason for the mismatch was a substantial underestimation of crude demand. Another reason, according to a Bloomberg report, was the fact that the IEA tracks oil by satellite and excludes crude in pipelines and underground storage. Yet another reason was that the IEA tracks mostly OECD countries and ignores non-members.

What this means, however, is that there may very well be a lot less oil in the world at a time when demand is robust, still growing, and Covid restrictions are being lifted, stimulating yet more demand. It looks suspiciously like a repeat of the European gas situation from the past few months.

- https://sg.news.yahoo.com/low-oil-inven ... 00617.html
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby alloneword » Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:36 am

MacCruiskeen » Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:39 am wrote:..Just imagine if Gates, Schwab, Biden, Trudeau and all the other wise Philosopher Kings who rule us, rob us, exploit us, terrorise us and lie to us had instead condescended to tell us the truth about real threats such as peak oil, soil depletion, state terrorism, big pharma, mechanised medicine, and the CIA...


Yes. To do so would leave no alternative but to open the door to solutions which are fundamentally inimical to their interests - sustainable, simpler, decentralised, etc.

Heresy to their techno-cornucopian transhumanist dreams. For the rest, the death of our belief in 'progress'.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:44 am

Government Health Advice: Stay home, mask up, fear humans, use Amazon, isolate, atomise, vegetate, watch Netflix, call a pizza, have a wank, get pished, cultivate your screen-addiction, follow orders, get jabbed, await further instructions, we are the experts, trust us.

#Follow_TheScience™. (Do not try to think for yourself, you'll be crap at it.)
#ClapForCarers. (Do not venture to care for yourself or others, you don't know how.)

They've spent two years making their already radically de-skilled (and deeply indebted) populations even more passive & fearful & gullible & dependent & incompetent, and ever more hopelessly hooked on supplies. Now they're starting to cut off those supplies, slowly, slowly.

Imagine the improvement in public health and happiness if people had instead been permitted and encouraged to create community gardens, just for instance. Imagine adults and children had spent two years learning to become less dependent on "supplies", less like babies attached to the breast. Instead, our trusted Leaders have devoted all their energies to building Hikikomori Planet.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby alloneword » Sun Feb 13, 2022 10:04 am

MacCruiskeen » Sun Feb 13, 2022 11:44 am wrote:Imagine the improvement in public health and happiness if people had instead been permitted and encouraged to create community gardens, just for instance.


Here a thing, though. I'll relate this as it does deal with food security/supply chains and the human dynamics surrounding community gardens.

I spent the best part of 2005 to 2015 'coordinating' a community garden/food forest project (charity/volunteer run, on local authority owned land), big into skill-sharing / re-skilling. I honestly spent almost as much time and energy dealing with dickheads than working on the land itself. A large part was taken up defending the charity itself from dickheads who sought to use it to further their own private interests, the rest on dealing with 'volunteers' and their dickheaded sense of entitlement.

Someone (before my time) had the bright idea of setting aside a portion of the land as 'personal allotments' for volunteers to grow their own veg, in *exchange* for their volunteering time to work on the rest of the project (maintaining fruit trees, dealing with Japanese Knotweed, scything the meadow etc).

So it would usually go something like this: "I heard I can have a free allotment. Can I have a free allotment, then?"

Yes, and here's a contract that stipulates that you'll need to attend at least 4 volunteer days a year... "OK, great."

They might turn up a few days later with a spade. A frenzy of digging ensues. 3 or 4 hours later, they collapse due to exhaustion. Weeks pass without seeing them, and volunteer day arrives. I'd send out the emails, then follow up with phone calls a day or 2 before. "I won't be coming, I've done my back in..." etc. And these were the ones who *actually did something*. There was also the vocal periphery of 'lifestyle hippies' with their weirdly romanticised notions about, well, *everything*, who would dutifully attend every trustees meeting, but when it came to getting the secateurs out were generally nowhere to be seen.

But every week, often several times a week, I'd be down there with the one other committed volunteer - an acerbic septuagenarian (who frankly didn't give a shit, but loved wielding the brush cutter) - drinking tea under the cherry trees and bitching about the world, still getting more out of it than we'd ever put in.

So I'm not sure it's just a question of being 'permitted and encouraged'. There are opportunities, and if not, they can be made. I see a lack of will, perhaps motivation. Certainly not much of an awareness of what is involved, or how time operates in that domain. The cost/benefit analysis doesn't fit with the need for near-instant gratification, so struggles to compete with the invitation to suckle at the teat of 'Amazon Prime'.

If the collapse is sporadic or slow enough, there might be time to re-learn. But if the efforts to fend it off or delay it are too effective, it might well be that we go so far beyond the tipping point that it's sudden, catastrophic and absolute when it does eventually get beyond sustaining.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby Harvey » Sun Feb 13, 2022 10:43 am

alloneword » Sun Feb 13, 2022 3:04 pm wrote:So I'm not sure it's just a question of being 'permitted and encouraged'. There are opportunities, and if not, they can be made. I see a lack of will, perhaps motivation.


Possible solutions:

Creating/encouraging community is key to the success of anything.
Make the case for home-grown produce, literature graphics, talks, schools, libraries.
Organic cafe/restaurant with recipes created directly from the produce - where people can see taste and touch it.
Hold small music festivals, theatre, comedy etc
Provide cost comparison and information on differences between market and home-grown (everything from cost and shipping to pesticides/herbicides). Lectures, talks, discussions. Show the political, cultural and community benefits - carbon savings/environmental benefits.
Grocery - selling produce for local residents with an area set aside for participants to give away excess produce if they wish. Worker owned food markets (encourage local farmers to participate.)
Disseminate knowledge, training and information through creating a self sustaining community.
Organise film showings - wine evenings (local produce) - guest speakers and lectures - group walks (contact local ramblers associations, environmental and nature groups etc) exploring the local area/wildlife etc.
Local history groups (history of land use, farming, enclosures etc)
Organise tree planting days - encourage local landowners to give land for orchards and other trees and allow access for all who wish to use it, etc...

:shrug:
Last edited by Harvey on Sun Feb 13, 2022 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby alloneword » Sun Feb 13, 2022 11:56 am

Stop it, H... You're depressing me. :wink

We did the whole 'Transition Towns' thing... I mean, really did it. I can still smell the patchouli.

The events, film shows, 'local food initiatives', 'farmers' markets, composting toilet workshops, pretty much everything you list in one form or another.

It was weird... it was generally the same couple of people - locally regarded as freaks - who would actually turn out to a wet field one misty morning to help get a marquee up or set the chairs out. The people who would normally be considered as being outside the 'community'.

OK, so I'm somewhat jaded and cynical, but at the end of the day I feel like all we did was provide a way for (undoubtedly well meaning) middle class hippies to engage in 'cheap signalling' and making themselves feel a bit better about shopping at Tesco, that they were 'doing their bit'. Kind of like 'wokism', but with free apples.

I look at their websites now and see no activity for a couple of years. There was one project that sort of spun off which seems to be much doing better, but I suspect that's as much to do with it's core team being particularly adept at funding applications (for staffing) - there had been a sense that the project was a bit of a chameleon in that regard. But fair play to them, they're doing good work.

But really, I doubt all this 'raising awareness of the issues' does much good in the long run. What needs to be 'raised' is awareness of the amount of sustained hard work required to achieve any measure of 'food security', which is a pretty hard sell. The rewards for which are not immediately apparent, but are certainly worth it.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby alloneword » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:49 pm

Sorry, to finish that thought: I think part of the problem is that it's only the patchouli crowd who have the time to get involved in 'community initiatives', while the rest of the community are at work or looking after the kids, or slumped in front of the TV trying to recover from the week.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:50 pm

Someone needs to start a conspiracy gardening show. Something absolutely in your face like Alex Jones for about 30 mins followed by another 30 minutes of practical advice and instruction on how to start your own garden instead of hawking vitamins and canned foods. Target individuals instead of communities. Individuals with common hobbies find each other and start robust communities themselves. Target an urban audience. How to grow food indoors in limited space or balcony gardens.

Decentralised food production needs to get the kind of ideological spin to it fuelling bitcoin speculation. You know "Take it to Monsanto" as opposed to the "Come get in touch with nature" gimmick. Cultivate a warrior class of militant gardeners as opposed to a yuppie hobby workshop.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby alloneword » Sun Feb 13, 2022 1:05 pm

Hell, yeah.

It could be called 'Diggers With Attitude'.

& the first episode: 'Straight Outta Compost'?
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby Harvey » Sun Feb 13, 2022 2:24 pm

Thanks guys! Love it.
And while we spoke of many things, fools and kings
This he said to me
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You'll ever learn
Is just to love
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Sun Feb 13, 2022 2:43 pm

alloneword » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:05 pm wrote:Hell, yeah.

It could be called 'Diggers With Attitude'.

& the first episode: 'Straight Outta Compost'?


I laughed out loud, thank you.

Here's your host:

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https://i.discogs.com/IOn-IMyAsBSGfp3PUZehhLuutxFWrbNodecMya0m5rc/rs:fit/g:sm/q:90/h:500/w:500/czM6Ly9kaXNjb2dz/LWltYWdlcy9SLTQy/NTM5MzctMTM1OTgy/MjI4MC04Nzg3Lmpw/ZWc.jpeg
"Ich kann gar nicht so viel fressen, wie ich kotzen möchte." - Max Liebermann,, Berlin, 1933

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts." - Richard Feynman, NYC, 1966

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