The Syria Thread 2011 - Present

[Ben D]

Patriot Missile Dispute Reveals Russian Suspicions About Ankara

The dispute over the deployment of Patriot missiles on the Turkish-Syrian border exposes Russia's fears.

By Amiel Ungar First Publish: 11/23/2012, 3:11 AM

Turkey shares a 900 km border with Syria and is a member of the NATO alliance, but asked her allies to supply her with advanced Patriot missiles.

The Turkish request brought in its wake a vigorous Russian protest accusing Turkey and NATO of trying to militarize the border with Syria. The Netherlands and Germany, who have advanced versions of the missile, have indicated that they would supply the missiles to Turkey although their deployment would take weeks.

Aware of Russians sensitivities and suspicions that the missiles could provide the makings of a no-fly zone within Syrian territory that could be exploited by the anti-Assad insurgency to create a secure base of operations, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen claimed that this was not the intention. The deployment of missiles was a purely defensive measure that would help stabilize the border. Turkey has opened fire across the border on Syria in response to Syrian shelling.

Alexander Lukashevich, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, was not buying this explanation, given Turkey's prominent role in the drive to oust the government of Bashar al-Assad. The Russian spokesperson recommended that instead of the positioning the missiles, Turkey should pressure its Syrian insurgent clients to begin a dialogue with the Syrian government.

The missiles would not promote stability, as NATO argued but would destabilize the area. The Russian sensitivity reflects fears in Russia that Turkey is competing with Russia for influence in Central Asia and worse exploiting Muslim fundamentalism in Russia itself.

Writing in the Voice of Russia on November 9 Sergey Duz in an article entitled "Turkey Revives the Idea of the Ottoman Empire" argues that Turkey has given up on EU membership and is therefore intensifying its ties with NATO to promote its objectives . NATO is happy to use Turkey against Russia

Erdogan has actually united the country around a new imperial project. Turkey’s support of the Syrian opposition could be considered one of the first steps on the way to fulfilling this project. Generally speaking, Ankara’s strategy is based on consistent attempts to weaken other candidates for regional leadership. Many people find it morally and ethically doubtful.

On November 7 Russia Beyond the Headlines published an article by Aleksander Sotnichenko entitled "Time to Sound the Alarm in Russo-Turkish Relations" which argued that Ankara was threatening to destabilize Russia itself.

The relationship between Russia and Turkey is now extremely complicated. There are, on both sides, a large number of opponents to the strategic alliance between Ankara and Moscow. Within Turkey, this primarily involves radicals who are striving for the disintegration of the Russian Federation, and who gained a lot of popularity against the background of the Arab Spring. If their political influence continues to strengthen, it will have a catastrophic result on relations between the two countries.

[seemslikeadream]

NBC report: Syrian leader prepares to use chemical weapons
MSNBC staff
9:42 pm on 12/05/2012
U.S. officials told NBC News that sarin gas has been loaded into bombs, awaiting President Assad’s order to use the weapons against his own people. (
U.S. officials told NBC News that as soon as Syrian President Bashar Assad gives the order, the country’s military will use chemical weapons against its own people.

Yesterday there seemed to be no firm evidence that the Syrians were mixing the “precursor” chemicals for the nerve gas sarin. The chemical weapon could be loaded into bombs that would be dropped from Syrian Air Force fighter-bombers. But on Wednesday, NBC News said, American officials came to believe the bombs had indeed been readied with the lethal agent. The sarin bombs were not yet loaded onto the fighter planes, however, and Assad has not issued the “go” order.
Secretary of State warned President Assad once again that he would be crossing “a red line” if he used nerve gas against the country’s rebels. But “there’s little the outside world can do to stop it,” one official told NBC News. Secretary Clinton, in NATO headquarters in Brussels, said the Assad government was “increasingly desperate” and on the verge of collapse. The 21-month civil war has cost 40,000 lives already.
“We believe their fall is inevitable,” Clinton said. “It is just a question of how many people have to die before that occurs.” Next week Clinton is expected to officially recognize the main opposition movement, the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, aides told NBC News, and the secretary will meet with them in Morocco. Britain, France, Turkey and some Arab leaders have already recognized the opposition. U.S. officials had long believed that the Syrian government was stockpiling the banned chemical weapons before it acknowledged possessing them this summer. NBC News reported in July that U.S. intelligence agencies believed Syria had access to sarin, tabun, a chemical nerve agent, as well as traditional chemical weapons like mustard gas and hydrogen cyanide.)
U.S. officials told NBC News that as soon as Syrian President Bashar Assad gives the order, the country’s military will use chemical weapons against its own people.

Yesterday there seemed to be no firm evidence that the Syrians were mixing the “precursor” chemicals for the nerve gas sarin. The chemical weapon could be loaded into bombs that would be dropped from Syrian Air Force fighter-bombers. But on Wednesday, NBC News said, American officials came to believe the bombs had indeed been readied with the lethal agent. The sarin bombs were not yet loaded onto the fighter planes, however, and Assad has not issued the “go” order.
Secretary of State warned President Assad once again that he would be crossing “a red line” if he used nerve gas against the country’s rebels. But “there’s little the outside world can do to stop it,” one official told NBC News. Secretary Clinton, in NATO headquarters in Brussels, said the Assad government was “increasingly desperate” and on the verge of collapse. The 21-month civil war has cost 40,000 lives already.
“We believe their fall is inevitable,” Clinton said. “It is just a question of how many people have to die before that occurs.”
Next week Clinton is expected to officially recognize the main opposition movement, the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, aides told NBC News, and the secretary will meet with them in Morocco. Britain, France, Turkey and some Arab leaders have already recognized the opposition.

U.S. officials had long believed that the Syrian government was stockpiling the banned chemical weapons before it acknowledged possessing them this summer.
NBC News reported in July that U.S. intelligence agencies believed Syria had access to sarin, tabun, a chemical nerve agent, as well as traditional chemical weapons like mustard gas and hydrogen cyanide.

[DrVolin]

Usually ABC is the current hummingbird of choice for this stuff. Interesting.

[seemslikeadream]

William Hague: Britain has evidence that Assad preparing chemical weapons for use in Syria
William Hague has warned that Britain has “evidence” that President Bashar al-Assad’s regime is preparing chemical weapons for use in Syria’s civil war.
The Foreign Secretary said on Saturay that he had seen intelligence reports that Damascus was assembling chemical and biological stockpiles as a last-ditch defence against the growing rebel onslaught.

Speaking at a conference in the Gulf, Mr Hague declined to give details of the intelligence, but said it had been specific enough for Britain and America to warn the regime directly not to use the weapons.

“We have seen enough evidence to know that they need a warning and they have received that warning,” he said. Use of such weapons could prompt the West into airstrikes, he hinted.

[seemslikeadream]

Barak: End of Syria's Assad would be 'a blessing for the Middle East'
Defense Minister Barak tells World Policy Conference Assad will be out in weeks; at least 18 killed in latest Syria violence Sunday, Arab League says will meet to discuss situation within ten days.

Speaking at the World Policy Conference in Vienna, Barak predicted that Assad and his clique would be forced out of power within weeks.
By The Associated Press, DPA and Reuters | Dec.11, 2011 | 6:45 PM |

maybe someone is tired of waiting

[seemslikeadream]

U.S. to send troops, Patriot missiles to Turkey
By Ben Brumfield, CNN
updated 7:58 AM EST, Fri December 14, 2012
A member of the Syrian opposition's Al-Buraq Brigade stands guard on a main road in the northern Syrian town of Ain Dakna near the Turkish border on Monday, December 10. Click through to view images of the fighting from December, or see photos of the conflict from November.

Move signals U.S. support for Turkey in the face of possible threats from Syria
(CNN) -- The United States gave the go-ahead Friday to deploy Patriot anti-ballistic missiles to Turkey along with enough troops to operate them as the heavily embattled government in neighboring Syria again vehemently denied firing ballistic missiles at rebels.
The United States has accused Damascus of launching Scud-type artillery from the capital at rebels in the country's north. One Washington official said missiles came close to the border of Turkey, a NATO member and staunch U.S. ally.
Syria's government called the accusations "untrue rumors" Friday, according to state news agency SANA. Damascus accused Turkey and its partners of instigating rumors to make the government look bad internationally.
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta signed the order while en route to Turkey to send two Patriot missile batteries and 400 U.S. troops to operate them. The surface-to-air interceptors will help in "dealing with threats that come out of Syria," Panetta said after landing at Incirlik Air Base, a U.S. Air Force installation about 80 miles from Syria's border.
Panetta was unconcerned about possible reactions from Damascus to the Patriot deployment. "We can't spend a lot of time worrying about whether that pisses off Syria," he said, adamant that helping Turkey was the priority.
Assad staying despite slide in power The soundtrack of life in a refugee camp Syrian, 17, risks life to rescue Signs of Syrian regime weakening
Panetta did say he was worried what Bashar al-Assad's government may do if it feels it is near collapse.
Descriptions provided to CNN by U.S. officials familiar with the latest intelligence suggest the Syrian leader's problems have accelerated internally as the opposition continues to capture more territory.
"It's at its lowest point yet," said one senior U.S. official with direct knowledge of the latest assessments. "The trend is moving more rapidly than it has in the past."
The officials agreed to talk on the condition their names not be used because they were not authorized to discuss the information with the media.
When asked what the response might be if Syria deployed chemical weapons, Panetta said that the U.S. military had "drawn up plans" but that "it's not easy" to defend against them.
Germany and the Netherlands have shown willingness to add two Patriot batteries each from their countries, NATO said Friday, to defend Turkey and "de-escalate the crisis on NATO's southeastern border."
NATO has also said it detected what appeared to be ballistic missile launches within Syria and condemned their possible use as "utter disregard for the lives of the Syrian people."
Turkey and NATO insist the Patriot system would be used only for defense.
Patriots are constructed to take out threats from warplanes and tactical ballistic missiles to unmanned aircraft by impacting with them in midair, according to Raytheon Co., which builds them. The U.S. military used to take out Scud missiles during the Iraq war.

[JackRiddler]

Strictly on a FWIW basis...

http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/01/07/ ... pera/print

January 07, 2013

Tipping Point or Turning Point?
Assad at the Opera House

by FRANKLIN LAMB


Damascus.


Easy walking distance from this observer’s hotel near the city center, the Damascus Opera House, the site of yesterday’s Presidential address, was inaugurated in May of 2004 by the President and his wife, completing a project of his late father, Hafez, who actually planned the opera house in detail, but which had been put on hold since the late 1970’s. Located off Umayyad Square, the multipurpose culture center complex, presented its most recent opera, Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s, The Marriage of Figaro, just months before the current crisis erupted.

The nearly 1,400 seating capacity Opera Theater was packed for yesterday’s presidential address, and as in the final scene of Mozart’s Opera, the conclusion of Bashar Assad’s performance was followed by, as Mozart wrote, “a night-long celebration” among many of his supporters here in Damascus. Basher Assad’s glory, as he tried to leave the stage last night and was swarmed by scores of admirers, may not have been that of Caesar’s, during the Gallic wars as the latter also portrayed a domestic crisis and challenge as a defensive struggle to save “Rome”. And granted, it is unlikely that Syria’s president will appear to his critics as posh as John Kennedy at Vienna’s Opera House. But the man connected with his audience (s) during his watershed speech. He excelled in delivery, content and, most critically, stating and advocating what he believes is his countryman’s case. While welcoming foreign advice on how to end the current crisis, he insisted that the Syrian people throughout their history of resistance to occupation and hegemony have rejected the orders from certain governments he referred to, in the current crisis, as the “masters of the puppets” who are every day causing death, destruction and deprivations across the Syrian Arab Republic. Admittedly sleep deprived, this observer, as he listened to Bashar Assad’s address was reminded of a Macbeth or Brutus soliloquy. I could not help but transpose in my mind Brutus’ plea in Act 3, Scene 2 of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar:

“Who is here so rude or unpatriotic that would not be a Syrian? Who is here so vile that will not love his country? If any, speak–for him

I have not intentionally or unjustly wronged. I pause for a reply.”



Following his presidential address to the nation, one local journalist, who is sometimes critical of the regime, elaborated–in answer to my question about Assad’s apparent enduring popularity during this tragic period for people of Syria: “It’s true. And it’s partly due to the fact that he is modest, even humble– and well-educated in contrast to some regional monarchs who are essentially illiterate and uninterested in the world outside their fiefdoms palaces.” She continued, “Before the crisis it was not unusual to spot him, without a security convoy, driving himself around downtown, his car full of kids- doing errands or taking them out to eat-sometimes collecting them from school. You saw his almost boyish charm yesterday as he entered the hall and made his way down the aisle to the podium as he greeted members of the audience. As he departed he did not appear in a hurry as he shook hands. Bashar Assad obviously enjoys being among people and is not at all a sullen remote type personality as some critics wrongly portray him.” Following the speech, when the lovely chamber maid who daily spruces up my hotel room dropped by in early evening to do something, I was reading and watching the news. They showed a clip of the president delivering his noontime speech. She lite up when she saw Bashar, spontaneously walked across the room, wrapped her arms around the TV set and hugged it while kissing the screen. I noticed that the lady’s hands were wet and became fearful that the dear woman might get electrocuted! One well known politically connected Sheik in Damascus offered his view last night to this observer that Assad’s message was to the Syrian people and to his country’s foreign friends and to those who are neutral–and not to his governments enemies. He also suggested that the President will deliver two more speeches in the near future, the next one perhaps having a “FDR fireside chat” format. The Sunni Sheik referred to yesterday’s speech as the first of three “victory” speeches he expected to be delivered. He also spoke about the UAE and Saudi Arabia in relation to what was happening in Syria and the fact that they are experiencing challenges of their own. In the case of the Saudi Kingdom, and against the backdrop of increased Iran-Saudi consultations regarding Syria, the ill health of King Abdullah and the evident succession power struggle which has intensified recently, with some of the royal family potentates reportedly being strongly opposed to the current campaign to undermine the Assad regime. The Syrian government, despite its detractors, is seen by many in the Gulf countries as being pedigree Arab nationalists with a history of mutual respect for other countries. The Sheik also sees signs of the Obama administration backing off from its covert war against Syria partly due to the fractured and often coherent message coming from various spokesman of the misnomered “coalition.” Mr. Assad, in what historians and Middle East analysts may well dub an historic speech, offered a new plan to his countrymen, friends and foes alike, and to the international community to immediately end the crisis

It includes, in sequential order:

* foreign countries to stop financing the rebels;

* Syria’s government putting down its arms and declaring an amnesty;

* a national conference and dialogue;

* the drafting of a constitution approved by referendum;

* a coalition government, presumably until the holding of elections scheduled for 2014.

One Congressional staffer on the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee emailed late today that the Obama administration may well be willing to accept Bashar Assad’s “Damascus Opera House” formula given the fast changing geopolitical reality the region and the military stalemate on the ground in Syria. Both facts suggesting that there is no realistic alternative to the current elected government or that there is much of a realistic prospect that the regime will throw in the towel or collapse anytime soon.

The Congressional staffer, who works on US-Middle East issues, also believes that the incoming Secretary of State, John Kerrey and the likely new Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, who will face a tough Senate confirmation fight, but will likely survive it, would go along. In contract to President Assad’s speech this morning, one of the leaders of the so-called opposition, George Sabra, did not appear capable of offering much to aid the process of ending the current crisis in Syria. Said Mr. Sabra, “No one could possibly think about dialogue or working with this regime in any way. It is not a possibility. It is out of the question.”

This may not be the evolving international view.

Franklin Lamb is doing research in Syria and can be reached c/o fplamb@gmail.com

[Ben D]

Turkey taking advantage imo....

Syrian Kurds seek end to violence

Sunday, January 20, 2013 » 06:31am

Syrian Kurds have urged the opposition to halt a siege against them by Islamist rebels, as the UN condemned the killing of dozens of children across the country over the past week.

The Kurdish National Council, a pro-opposition umbrella group of Syrian Kurdish parties, condemned what it said was an ongoing assault 'against unarmed civilians' by jihadist insurgents on the northern town of Ras al-Ain.

It said the rebels, who came across the border from Turkey, were shelling the town indiscriminately, and called on the main opposition National Coalition and the Free Syrian Army to 'pressure these militants to stop this criminal war which is detrimental to the Syrian revolution.'

On Saturday, one rebel was killed in shelling and fierce clashes that pitted the jihadist Al-Nusra Front against Kurdish fighters, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

A resident of Ras al-Ain told AFP both sides appeared to be preparing for a fierce battle, with Kurdish fighters building fortifications and digging trenches, and rebels bringing in reinforcements from across the border.

Turkey, which supports the revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, is home to a sizeable Kurdish minority whose demands for greater independence it has moved to suppress, notably in air strikes on Kurdish militants groups.

Activists say Turkey may be using jihadists in Syria to fight its own battle against the Kurds.

[cptmarginal]

Pepe Escobar - Syria: A jihadi paradise

So Bashar al-Assad hath martially spoken - for the first time in seven months - predictably blaming the Syrian civil war on "terrorists" and "Western puppets".

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, he of the former "zero problems with our neighbors" policy, commented that Assad only reads the reports of his secret services. C'mon, Ahmet; Bashar may be no Stephen Hawking, but he's certainly getting his black holes right.

Assad, moreover, has a plan: a national dialogue leading to a national charter - to be submitted to a referendum - and then an enlarged government and a general amnesty. The problem is who is going to share all this bottled happiness because Assad totally dismisses the new Syria opposition coalition as well as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), describing them as foreign-recruited gangs taking orders from foreign powers to implement one supreme agenda: the partition of Syria.

Still, Assad's got a plan. First stage: all foreign powers financing the "terrorists" - as in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization-Gulf Cooperation Council compound - must stop doing so. That's already a major no-no. Only in a second stage would the Syrian Army cease all its operations, but still reserve the right to respond to any - inevitable - "provocation".

Assad's plan does not mention what happens to Assad himself. The only thing the multiple strands of the opposition agree on is that "the dictator must go" before any negotiations take place. Yet he wants to be a candidate to his own succession in 2014.

As if this was not a humongous "detail" torpedoing the whole construct of current UN mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, there's still the crucial nagging point of Brahimi insisting on including the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in a Syrian transitional government. Brahimi should know better. It's as if the UN was praying for a Hail Mary pass - that is, Assad's voluntary abdication.

This ain't Tora Bora
If you want to know what's really going in Syria, look no further than Hezbollah secretary-general Sheikh Nasrallah. He does tell it like it is.

Then there's what Ammar al-Musawi, Hezbollah's number 3 - as in their de facto foreign minister - told my Italian colleaguem Ugo Tramballi. The most probable post-Assad scenario, if there is one, will be "not a unitary state, but a series of emirates near the Turkish border, and somebody proclaiming an Islamic state". Hezbollah's intelligence - the best available on Syria - is adamant: "one third of the combatants in the opposition are religious extremists, and two-thirds of the weapons are under their control." The bottom line - this is a Western proxy war, with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) acting as a "vanguard" for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Asia Times Online readers have already known this for eons, as much as they know about the tectonic-plates-on-the-move fallacy of GCC autocracies promoting "democracy" in Syria. While the geologically blessed House of Saud has bribed every grain of sand in sight to be immunized against any whiff of Arab Spring, at least in Kuwait the winds of change are forcing the Al-Sabah family to accept a prime minister who is not an emir's puppet. Yes, petromonarchs; sooner or later you're all going down.

As for those who ignore Musawi, they do it at their own peril; blowback is and will remain inevitable, "like in Afghanistan". Musawi adds, "Syria is not Tora Bora; it's on the Mediterranean coast, close to Europe". Syria in the 2010s is the 1980s Afghan remix - with exponential inbuilt blowback.

And for those who blindly follow the blind in repeating that Hezbollah is a "terrorist" organization, Hezbollah is closely cooperating with the UN - on the ground with over 10,000 blue helmets, under the command of Italian General Paolo Serra - to keep southern Lebanon free from Syrian civil war contamination.

The dictator has fallen - again
Not surprisingly, that motley crew branded as the "Syrian opposition" rejected Assad en bloc. For the Muslim Brotherhood - the self-styled power in waiting - he is a "war criminal" who should go on trial. For Georges Sabra, the vice-president of that American-Qatari concoction, the National Coalition, Assad's words were a "declaration of war against the Syrian people".

Predictably, the US State Department - not yet under John Kerry - said Assad was "detached from reality". London said it was all hypocrisy and immediately launched yet another "secret" two-day conference this week at Wilton Park in West Sussex mingling coalition members with the usual gaggle of "experts", academics, GCC officials and "multilateral agencies". The spectacularly pathetic UK Foreign Secretary William Hague twitted - for the umpteenth time - that "Assad's departure from power is inevitable".

Facts on the ground though spell that Assad is not going anywhere anytime soon.

As for British claims that "the international community can provide support to a future transitional authority", that doesn't cut much slack among war-weary informed Syrians - who know this civil war has been funded, supplied and amply coordinated by the West, as in the NATO component of the NATOGCC compound.

They smell a - Western - rat in the obsessive characterization of everything in Syria as a sectarian war, as they see how loads of influent Sunnis have remained loyal to the government.

They smell a - Western - rat when they look back and see this whole thing started just as the US$10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline (crucially bypassing NATO member Turkey) had a chance to be implemented. This would represent a major economic boost to an independent Syria, an absolute no-no as far as Western interests are concerned.

The Obama 2.0 administration - and Israel - would be more than comfortable with the MB in power in Syria, following the Egyptian modus operandi. The Brotherhood promotes the idea of a "civil state"; one just has to check the few "liberated areas" across Syria to detect rebel civility inbuilt in hardcore Sharia law and assorted beheadings.

Yet what the NATOGCC compound and Israel really want is a Yemeni model for Syria; a military dictatorship without the dictator. What they're getting instead, for the foreseeable future, is Jihadi Paradise.

Off with their heads
Almost a year ago, al-Qaeda number one Ayman al-Zawahiri called on every Sunni hardcore faithful from Iraq and Jordan to Lebanon, Turkey and beyond to take a trip to Syria and merrily crush Assad.

So they've kept coming, including - just like in Afghanistan - Chechens and Uyghurs and Southeast Asians, joining everything from the FSA to Jabhat al-Nusra, the number one killing militia, now with over 5,000 jihadis.

A report published this week by the London-based counterterrorism outfit Quilliam Foundation confirms Al-Nusra's role. The lead author of the report, Noman Benotman, happens to be a former Libyan jihadi very cosy with al-Zawahiri and the late "Geronimo", aka Osama bin Laden.

Al-Nusra is in fact the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the terrorist brand of late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, also known as Islamic State of Iraq after Zarqawi was incinerated by a US missile in 2006. Even the State Department knows that AQI emir Abu Du'a runs both AQI and al-Nusra, whose own emir is Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani.

It's AQI that facilitates the back-and-forth of Iraqi commanders - with plenty of fighting experience on the ground against the Americans - to sensitive areas in Syria, while the Syrians, Iraqis and Jordanians at al-Nusra also work the phones to extract funding from Gulf sources. Al-Nusra wants - what else - an Islamic State not only in Syria but all over the Levant. Favorite tactic: car and truck suicide bombings as well as remote-controlled car bombs. For the moment, they keep a tense collaboration/competition regime with the FSA.

What happens next? The new Syrian National Coalition is a joke. Those GCC bastions of democracy are now totally spooked by the jihadi tsunami. Russia drew the red line and NATO won't dare to bomb; Russians and Americans are now discussing details. And sooner or later Ankara will see the writing on the wall - and revert to a policy of at least minimizing trouble with the neighbors.
Assad saw The Big Picture - clearly, thus his "confident" speech. It's now Assad against the jihadis. Unless, or until, the new CIA under Terminator John Brennan drones itself into the (shadow war) picture with a vengeance.

I am frequently amazed that what's happening in Syria (and Libya before it) can even be real, that an "Afghan Arab" type situation is sort of happening again. Mercenary fighters coming in to take the charge in key battles and control the infrastructure and weapons, out of apparent religious motivations. The Western-allied states trying to give Egypt, Libya, Syria etc. to the fundamentalists on a silver platter for whatever ends. Aleppo in ruins is something I had never even considered I'd see, it's sickening. I read a post here recently talking about the past year, that nothing big has been happening in the world besides mass shootings and a few other things. My eyes just about popped out of my head, having watched what's going down in Syria.

It's seriously big news, maybe an even bigger watershed moment than the original funding of mujahideen in Af-Pak. That the amount of money being given is less may not matter, considering that it seems to be building off of that earlier preparation of "the base" of disparate militants. That preparation has likely been ongoing ever since anyway. The modern technical support available to these guys is at least as vital as the cash. Shit, they probably just pay for it from some defense contractors. Though I'm not at all convinced by assertions that the "Friends of Syria" are restricting their help to just Syrian civilians and army defectors.

Compare:

Syria crisis: al-Qaida fighters revealing their true colours, rebels say

"Money is flowing to al-Nusra. Members acknowledge that they receive cash from benefactors in the Sunni Arab world."

Arm Syrian rebels to contain jihadis, says Saudi royal

"Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former spy chief, issues call in Davos amid alarm at growing presence of extremists in Syrian opposition... Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former chief of Saudi intelligence and the brother of the kingdom's current foreign minister, said he was no longer in government and did not need to be diplomatic, but "assumed" weapons were being sent to the rebels. He said it would be a "terrible mistake" if they were not."


Hahaha

[Elihu]

I am frequently amazed that what's happening in Syria (and Libya before it) can even be real, that an "Afghan Arab" type situation is sort of happening again. Mercenary fighters coming in to take the charge in key battles and control the infrastructure and weapons, out of apparent religious motivations. The Western-allied states trying to give Egypt, Libya, Syria etc. to the fundamentalists on a silver platter for whatever ends. Aleppo in ruins is something I had never even considered I'd see, it's sickening. I read a post here recently talking about the past year, that nothing big has been happening in the world besides mass shootings and a few other things. My eyes just about popped out of my head, having watched what's going down in Syria.

It's seriously big news, maybe an even bigger watershed moment than the original funding of mujahideen in Af-Pak. That the amount of money being given is less may not matter, considering that it seems to be building off of that earlier preparation of "the base" of disparate militants. That preparation has likely been ongoing ever since anyway. The modern technical support available to these guys is at least as vital as the cash. Shit, they probably just pay for it from some defense contractors. Though I'm not at all convinced by assertions that the "Friends of Syria" are restricting their help to just Syrian civilians and army defectors.

Compare:

Syria crisis: al-Qaida fighters revealing their true colours, rebels say

"Money is flowing to al-Nusra. Members acknowledge that they receive cash from benefactors in the Sunni Arab world."

Arm Syrian rebels to contain jihadis, says Saudi royal

"Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former spy chief, issues call in Davos amid alarm at growing presence of extremists in Syrian opposition... Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former chief of Saudi intelligence and the brother of the kingdom's current foreign minister, said he was no longer in government and did not need to be diplomatic, but "assumed" weapons were being sent to the rebels. He said it would be a "terrible mistake" if they were not."


Hahaha

was treated to a propaganda bliptoid on my moving picture box this morning. NATO: PATRIOT MISSILE BATTERY NOW OPERATIONAL ON SYRIAN BORDER. glad my tax money could help out with that. sorry if anyone gets killed. we're making a better world here. it's hard work. i'm just glad barry got the peace prize. all legit you see....

[seemslikeadream]

Syria: Israel attacked military research center
Syria's military command says Israeli warplanes attacked military research center in Damascus province denying reports that jets hit weapons convoy; two killed, five injured. Residents, experts say site was chemical weapons facility
Ynet reporters
Latest Update: 01.31.13, 00:32 / Israel News

Israeli warplanes attacked a military research center in Damascus province at dawn on Wednesday, Syria's military command said, denying reports that the planes had struck a convoy carrying weapons from Syria to Lebanon.

Local residents and experts claim the target was a chemical weapons production center.

Two people were killed and five wounded in the attack on the site in Jamraya, which Syria described as one of a number of "scientific research centers aimed at raising the level of resistance and self-defense".

The building was destroyed, the military command said in a statement carried by state media.

It said the planes crossed into Syria below the radar level, just north of Mount Hermon, and returned the same way.


Area of attack according to Syrian statement (Photo: Google Maps)

The Jamraya area contains many military facilities as well as what is likely a chemical weapons production and storage site. The area also houses training camps for Hezbollah combatants who are learning to operate advanced Russian weapons systems.

It was further noted that the attack occurred after terrorist groups tried and failed to take control of the site several times.


SA-17 missiles

The Syrian army statement denied that the strike had targeted a convoy headed from Syria to Lebanon, instead portraying the strike as linked to the civil war pitting Bashar Assad's forces against rebels seeking to push him from power.

"This proves that Israel is the instigator, beneficiary and sometimes executor of the terrorist acts targeting Syria and its people," the statement said.

Residents near Damascus had previously told AFP that missiles had struck a military site for unconventional weapons on Tuesday at 11:30 pm.

According to them, the center, which is located in Al-Hameh, about fifteen kilometers north-west of Damascus, was hit by six missiles that were partially destroyed, causing a fire and killing at least two people.

Video posted by rebels allegedly showing blast

A Lebanese news website quoted a Syrian source as saying that the target of the alleged Israeli strike was a chemical weapons center. The Damascus source said that the attack took place at 1:30 am at a scientific research center in the Jamraya area.

He added that four security guards were killed in the attack and that the blast could be heard as far as Damascus.

Syrian rebels posted a video allegedly documenting a series of blasts at the center shortly after the attack had taken place. The video could not be authenticated. On Wednesday, several rebel leaders claimed that they had attacked the site with mortar shells.

Israel's intelligence community has been aware of the military research center for decades. Some of the center's studies have been presented as civilian in nature. Yiftah Shafir of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv said, "It is a secret governmental body that answers directly to Assad and aggregates all of Syria's military research institutes."

Earlier on Wednesday AP quoted US and regional officials as saying that Israel conducted an airstrike inside Lebanon, hitting a convoy of trucks.


The officials said Israel had been planning in the days leading up to the airstrike to hit a shipment of weapons bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon. They said the shipment included sophisticated, Russian-made SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles, which would be strategically "game-changing" in the hands of Hezbollah.

Lebanese sources also commented on the reports and stressed that there had been no strike inside Lebanese territory. An eye witness from a border town said that there had been no explosion.

A senior official with the Lebanese security forces told Turkey's Anatolia news agency that they were not aware of any attack on the Syria-Lebanon border area.

He did however say that an Israeli force had infiltrated the border strip in south Lebanon for several minutes on Tuesday night. Lebanese army sources said that the forces did not observe any Israeli activity overnight.

Arms Shipment Was Target as Israel Bombed Syria, U.S. Says
By ISABEL KERSHNER, MICHAEL R. GORDON and RICK GLADSTONE
Published: January 30, 2013 67 Comments

JERUSALEM — Israeli warplanes carried out a strike deep inside Syrian territory on Wednesday, American officials reported, saying they believed the target was a convoy carrying sophisticated antiaircraft weaponry on the outskirts of Damascus that was intended for the Hezbollah Shiite militia in Lebanon.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Israelis had notified the Americans about the attack, which the Syrian government called an act of “Israeli arrogance and aggression” that raised the risks that the two-year-old civil conflict in Syria could spread beyond the country’s borders.

In a statement, the Syrian military said a scientific research facility in the Damascus suburbs had been hit and denied that a convoy had been the target.

Israeli officials declined to comment on the airstrike. But they have been warning that they are monitoring the possible movement of weapons in the Syrian conflict, including chemical weapons, and would take action to thwart any possible transfers into Hezbollah’s possession.

It was the first time in more than five years that Israel’s air force had attacked a target in Syria, which has remained in a technical state of war with Israel although both sides have maintained an uneasy peace along their decades-old armistice line.

Hezbollah, which plays a decisive role in Lebanese politics, has long relied on Syria as both a source of weapons and a conduit for weapons flowing from Iran. Hezbollah has supported the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad throughout the uprising against him in part because it does not want to lose that weapons corridor, and some analysts say that Hezbollah may be trying to stock up on weapons now in case Mr. Assad falls. Other analysts say that Hezbollah would be cautious now about receiving arms from Syria because it does not want to risk drawing an Israeli attack or destabilizing its political position in Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, recently urged Lebanese citizens to welcome Syrian refugees regardless of their political affiliation, a move widely interpreted as aimed in part at preserving its relationship with Syria in the event of a rebel takeover, in addition to maintaining political calm in Lebanon.

Hezbollah is believed to have replenished and increased its weapons stocks after the 2006 war with Israel, in which Israeli bombardments destroyed some of its arms and other missiles were used to unleash a barrage that killed Israelis as far south as Haifa and drove residents of northern Israel into shelters.

The Syrian statement, carried by state television, said an unidentified number of Israeli jets flying below radar had hit the research facility, killing two people and causing “huge material damage.”

“Israeli warplanes violated our airspace at dawn, bombing directly one of the research scientific centers in the Jimraya district in rural Damascus,” the Syrian statement said, calling it a “breach of Syrian sovereignty.”

It cast the attack as “another addition to the history of Israeli occupation, aggression and criminality against Arabs and Muslims.”

“The Syrian government points out to the international community that this Israeli arrogance and aggression is dangerous for Syrian sovereignty and stresses that such criminal acts will not weaken Syria’s role nor will discourage Syrians from continuing to support resistance movements and just Arab causes, particularly the Palestinian issue,” the statement said.

Israelis have expressed increasing concern in recent days about what they called the threat of chemical or advanced conventional weapons leaking from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon or into the hands of extremist Islamic rebel groups as a result of the turmoil in Syria.

The Lebanese Army said in a statement on Wednesday that Israeli warplanes had carried out two sorties, circling over Lebanon for hours on Tuesday and before dawn on Wednesday, but made no mention of any attacks.

Jerusalem has long maintained a policy of silence on pre-emptive military strikes. It would not comment after Sudan accused the Israel military of carrying out an air attack that destroyed a weapons factory in Khartoum, the Sudanese capital, in October. Israel also never admitted to the bombing of a Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007, and Syria kept mum about that attack. The ambiguity allowed that event to pass without Syria feeling pressure to retaliate.

The heightened sense of alert in Israel this week had focused on the Syrian government’s precarious hold on its stockpiles of chemical weapons. But Israeli officials and experts have also voiced worry about the fate of what they describe as conventional “strategic weapons” in Syria, including advanced ground-to-air missiles, shore-to-sea missiles and anti-tank missiles. They say such weapons in the hands of Hezbollah could upset the current balance of forces in the region.

Amnon Sofrin, a retired brigadier general and former Israeli intelligence officer, told reporters in Jerusalem on Wednesday that Hezbollah, which is known to have been storing some of its more advanced weapons in Syria, was now eager to move everything it could to Lebanon. He said Israel was carefully watching for convoys transferring weapons systems from Syria to Lebanon.

Israel’s air force chief, Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel, said on Tuesday that Syria was a prime example of “the weakening governance in neighboring countries that heralds greater exposure to hostile activity.”

Speaking at an international space conference in Israel, General Eshel said: “We work every day in order to lessen the immediate threats, to create better conditions so that we will be victorious in future wars. This is a struggle in which the Air Force is a central player, from here to thousands of kilometers away.”

There have been reports in the last week of feverish security consultations between Israel’s political and security chiefs, and at least one Iron Dome anti-rocket missile defense battery was deployed in northern Israel. Israel’s national security adviser, Yaakov Amidror, was in Moscow for talks with Russian officials on Monday.

Israel has made it clear that if the Syrian government loses control over its chemical weapons or transfers them to Hezbollah, Israel will most likely be compelled to act. Avi Dichter, the minister for the home front, told Israel Radio on Tuesday that options to prevent Syria from using or transferring the weapons included deterrence and “attempts to hit the stockpiles.”

[seemslikeadream]

Syria and Iran threaten to retaliate against Israel for air raid near Damascus

By Associated Press, Published: January 30 | Updated: Thursday, January 31, 7:11 AM

BEIRUT — Syria and Iran have threatened to retaliate for an Israeli air raid near the capital Damascus.

Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul-Karim Ali says Damascus has “the option and the surprise to retaliate.” He said he cannot predict when the retaliation will be, saying it is up to relevant authorities to prepare for it.

In Iran, the semi-official Fars news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian on Thursday as saying the raid on Syria will have significant implications for the Israeli city of Tel Aviv.

U.S. officials said Israel launched a rare airstrike inside Syria on Wednesday, targeting a convoy believed to contain anti-aircraft weapons bound for Hezbollah. The Syrian military denied the existence of any such shipment and said a scientific research facility outside Damascus was hit.

King Abdullah: New Taliban likely to be in Syria
"Fareed Zakaria GPS," Sundays at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET on CNN
Fareed Zakaria speaks with King Abdullah II of Jordan about the future of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and radical Islamists in the region.
What would you like to see happen in Syria? You are facing an extraordinary crisis. And I think people need to remember you have now 300,000 refugees from Syria. You have just gone through a decade in which you took in hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees. The Iraqis have just started going back, and you now have this new influx. Do you think that the fall of al-Assad will, in some way, end this crisis? Or will that launch the beginning of a larger Syrian civil war?
Well, the challenge that we have with the longer this conflict goes on, the more the country will implode. And so for the first time, again, there’s talk of is there going to be a fragmentation of Syria? The breakup into different smaller states, which I think would be catastrophic and something that we would be reeling from for decades to come? But the longer it goes on, the nastier it gets, the more complicated it gets. But at the same time, anybody who’s saying that Bashar’s regime has got weeks to live, really doesn’t know the reality on the ground. They still have capability. So I give them a strong showing, at least for the first half of 2013.
Why is it that the army has not gone to al-Assad and said, you have to leave? In other words, there’s been relatively little defection at that highest level. Help us understand what the dynamic is that keeps the regime together.
Well, the regime was based on Alawite leadership that gives this a lot of its strength. And, again, part of the problem is with some of the minorities, especially if you look at the Christians and the Druze. Part of the issue that we’ve been tackling over the past several plus years and a half is seeing this influx of radical fighters coming into the country. So if you’re a Druze or you’re a Christian, who is sitting on the side of the fence…and even certain Alawites are not happy with the way Bashar is dictating the future of his country. But the other alternative, radical Islamist groups coming…is more frightening. So I think that’s what’s kept them on the sidelines.
How much jihadi penetration into Syria do you sense?
Well, al Qaeda is established in Syria. They’ve been there for about a year. They are getting certain supplies of materiel, weapons and financing, unfortunately, from certain sectors. So they are a force to contend with. And even if we get the best government into Damascus tomorrow, we have at least two or three years of securing our borders from them coming across, and to clean them up. So, you know, Jordan is today and has been committed since three weeks into the Afghan campaign. We've been there for many, many years. But today, when we look at Jordanian troops deploying to Afghanistan, we’ve got to really think, because I think the new Taliban that we’re going to have to deal with is actually going to be in Syria.

[NeonLX]

was treated to a propaganda bliptoid on my moving picture box this morning. NATO: PATRIOT MISSILE BATTERY NOW OPERATIONAL ON SYRIAN BORDER. glad my tax money could help out with that. sorry if anyone gets killed. we're making a better world here. it's hard work. i'm just glad barry got the peace prize. all legit you see....

Yeah...CBS "news" had a similar story this a.m. They also played a snippet of Obomber's peace prize acceptance speech. Tsk tsk, war is a really nasty bidness, but sometimes it's all ya got left to make things right, y'know.

[hava007]

anyone can rate the likelihood of all out conflict leading to rockets on Israel ?

[seemslikeadream]

Syria protests over Israel attack, warns of "surprise

By Dominic Evans and Khaled Yacoub Oweis
BEIRUT/AMMAN | Thu Jan 31, 2013 2:13pm EST
(Reuters) - Syria protested to the United Nations on Thursday over an Israeli air strike on its territory and warned of a possible "surprise" response.

The foreign ministry summoned the head of the U.N. force in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights to deliver the protest a day after Israel hit what Syria said was a military research centre and diplomats said was a weapons convoy heading for Lebanon.

"Syria holds Israel and those who protect it in the Security Council fully responsible for the results of this aggression and affirms its right to defend itself, its land and sovereignty," Syrian television quoted it as saying.

The ministry said it considered Wednesday's Israeli attack to be a violation of a 1974 military disengagement agreement which followed their last major war, and demanded the U.N. Security Council condemn it unequivocally.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed "grave concern". "The Secretary-General calls on all concerned to prevent tensions or their escalation," his office said, adding that international law and sovereignty should be respected.

Israel has maintained total silence over the attack, as it did in 2007 when it bombed a suspected Syrian nuclear site - an attack which passed without Syrian military retaliation.

In Beirut on Thursday Syria's ambassador said Damascus could take "a surprise decision to respond to the aggression of the Israeli warplanes". He gave no details but said Syria was "defending its sovereignty and its land".

Diplomats, Syrian rebels and security sources said Israeli jets bombed a convoy near the Lebanese border on Wednesday, apparently hitting weapons destined for Hezbollah. Syria denied the reports, saying the target was a military research centre northwest of Damascus and 8 miles from the border.

Hezbollah, which has supported Assad as he battles an armed uprising in which 60,000 people have been killed, said Israel was trying to thwart Arab military power and vowed to stand by its ally.

"Hezbollah expresses its full solidarity with Syria's leadership, army and people," said the group which fought an inconclusive 34-day war with Israel in 2006.

Russia, which has blocked Western efforts to put pressure on Syria at the United Nations, said any Israeli air strike would amount to unacceptable military interference.

"If this information is confirmed, we are dealing with unprovoked attacks on targets on the territory of a sovereign country, which blatantly violates the U.N. Charter and is unacceptable, no matter the motives," Russia's foreign ministry said.

Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian said the attack "demonstrates the shared goals of terrorists and the Zionist regime", Fars news agency reported. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad portrays the rebels fighting him as foreign-backed, Islamist terrorists, with the same agenda as Israel.

An aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday Iran would consider any attack on Syria as an attack on itself.

In battle-torn Damascus, residents doubted Syria would fight back. One mother of five said she had heard retaliation would come later. "They always say that. They'll retaliate, but later, not now. Always later," she said, and laughed.

"The last thing we need now is Israeli fighter jets to add to our daily routine. As if we don't have enough noise and firing keeping us awake at night."

BLASTS SHOOK DISTRICT

Details of Wednesday's strike remain sketchy and, in parts, contradictory. Syria said Israeli warplanes, flying low to avoid detection by radar, crossed into its airspace from Lebanon and struck the Jamraya military research centre.

But the diplomats and rebels said the jets hit a weapons convoy heading from Syria to Lebanon and the rebels said they - not Israel - attacked Jamraya with mortars.

One former Western envoy to Damascus said the discrepancy between the accounts might be explained by Jamraya's proximity to the border and the fact that Israeli jets hit vehicles inside the complex as well as a building.

The force of the dawn attack shook the ground, waking nearby residents from their slumber with up to a dozen blasts, two sources in the area said.

"We were sleeping. Then we started hearing rockets hitting the complex and the ground started shaking and we ran into the basement," said a woman who lives adjacent to the Jamraya site.

The resident, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity over the strike, said she could not tell whether the explosions which woke her were the result of an aerial attack.

Another source who has a relative working inside Jamraya said a building inside the complex had been cordoned off and flames were seen rising from the area after the attack.

"It appears that there were about a dozen rockets that appeared to hit one building in the complex," the source, who also asked not to be identified, told Reuters. "The facility is closed today."

Israeli newspapers quoted foreign media on Thursday for reports on the attack. Journalists in Israel are required to submit articles on security and military issues to the censor, which has the power to block any publication of material it deems could compromise state security.

Syrian state television said two people were killed in the raid on Jamraya, which lies in the 25-km (15-mile) strip between Damascus and the Lebanese border. It described it as a scientific research centre "aimed at raising the level of resistance and self-defense".

Diplomatic sources from three countries told Reuters that chemical weapons were believed to be stored at Jamraya, and that it was possible that the convoy was near the large site when it came under attack. However, there was no suggestion that the vehicles themselves had been carrying chemical weapons.

"The target was a truck loaded with weapons, heading from Syria to Lebanon," said one Western diplomat, echoing others who said the convoy's load may have included anti-aircraft missiles or long-range rockets.

The raid followed warnings from Israel that it was ready to act to prevent the revolt against Assad leading to Syria's chemical weapons and modern rockets reaching either his Hezbollah allies or his Islamist enemies.

A regional security source said Israel's target was weaponry given by Assad's military to fellow Iranian ally Hezbollah.

Such a strike or strikes would fit Israel's policy of pre-emptive covert and overt action to curb Hezbollah and does not necessarily indicate a major escalation of the war in Syria. It does, however, indicate how the erosion of the Assad family's rule after 42 years is seen by Israel as posing a threat.

Israel this week echoed concerns in the United States about Syrian chemical weapons, but its officials say a more immediate worry is that the civil war could see weapons that are capable of denting its massive superiority in airpower and tanks reaching Hezbollah; the group fought Israel in 2006 and remains a more pressing threat than its Syrian and Iranian sponsors.