http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/158425/electoral-college-update-bad-news-for-romney-on-eve-of-debates/Electoral College Update: Bad news for Romney on eve of debatesPosted on October 1, 2012 at 10:54 am by Richard Dunham in 2012, 2012 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, President Obama
RICK DUNHAM'S ELECTORAL MAP -- October 1, 2012
Welcome to our weekly Electoral College update. Every Monday morning between now and Election Day, Nov. 6, we will analyze the latest poll results from the 12 most competitive states and let you know which ones are more Republican than the national average and which are more Democratic. We’ll also give you an update on any major shifts in the battleground states in the preceding week.
The big picture:On the eve of the first presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, polls show the Democratic incumbent leading in every battleground state. For the first time since we began our Electoral College Update, Obama has a clear lead in states (and the District of Columbia) with more than 270 electoral votes. He now stands at 271, one more than the magic number needed to claim victory.
There’s been a lot of kvetching among Republican loyalists over polling methodology. My thought: Rick’s Rule #1 of polling is that any individual poll can be wrong but they can’t all be wrong. Even Fox News’ polling shows Obama ahead.
The best way for Romney to redraw the map in a hurry is to perform well in the three upcoming debates. The national average over the past week stood at an Obama lead of 4.0 percentage points, almost unchanged from 3.9 a week ago and 3.1 a week two weeks ago.
Advantage: Obama.
Trend: None(I'm unable to embed this and the lower placed graphic. Please visit link at top of posting to view.)The battlegrounds: ColoradoLead: Obama +2.9
Compared to national average: Romney +1.1
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
FloridaLead: Obama +3.2
Compared to national average: Romney +0.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
IowaLead: Obama +3.7
Compared to national average: Romney +0.3
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama
MichiganLead: Obama +8.8
Compared to national average: Obama +4.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored
NevadaLead: Obama +3.8
Compared to national average: Romney +0.2
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
New HampshireLead: Obama +3.0
Compared to national average: Romney +1.0
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
New MexicoLead: Obama +10.0
Compared to national average: Obama +6.0
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored
North CarolinaLead: Obama +1.1
Compared to national average: Romney +2.9
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
OhioLead: Obama +5.9
Compared to national average: Obama +1.9
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama
PennsylvaniaLead: Obama +8.0
Compared to national average: Obama +4.0
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored
VirginiaLead: Obama +3.7
Compared to national average: Romney +0.3
Momentum over past week: Romney
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
WisconsinLead: Obama +7.8
Compared to national average: Obama +3.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama
Spotlight state: Iowa ( unable to embed graphic. Please visit link at top of posting to view. )<script type="text/javascript" src="http://charts.realclearpolitics.com/widget_embed.js?id=1922&width=450&height=338&key=iowa_romney_vs_obama"></script>
Numbers based on RealClearPolitics poll data compiled by Max Kranl of the Hearst Newspapers Washington bureau and analyzed by Rick Dunham. Our thanks to RealClearPolitics for the timelines.