'Not for public': the oil spill may be getting much worse

[82_28]

Just heard this on the radio on the way home. AT LEAST TEN TIMES WORSE THAN THOUGHT!

Gulf Spill Could Be Much Worse Than Believed

The volume of oil pouring into the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig may be at least 10 times higher than previously estimated, NPR has learned.

The U.S. Coast Guard has estimated that oil was gushing from a broken pipe on the Gulf floor at the rate of 5,000 barrels a day.

But sophisticated scientific analysis of sea floor video made available Wednesday by the oil company BP shows that the true figure is closer to 70,000 barrels a day, NPR's Richard Harris reports.

That means the oil spilling into the Gulf has already far exceeded the equivalent of the 1989 Exxon Valdez tanker accident in Alaska, which spilled at least 250,000 barrels of oil.

The analysis was conducted by Steve Werely, an associate professor at Purdue University, using a technique called particle image velocimetry. Harris tells Michele Norris that the method is accurate to about 20 percent. That means the flow could range between 56,000 barrels a day and 84,000 barrels a day.

Another analysis by Eugene Chiang, a professor of astrophysics at the University of California Berkeley, calculated the rate of flow to be between 20,000 barrels a day and 100,000 barrels a day — both higher than the Coast Guard's estimate.

But the pipe is spewing both oil and gas and the BP does not make it clear how much is oil and how much gas.

"BP has always said there is no way to measure the amount spilling from the pipe," Harris said.

But, he said, the uncertainty could be reduced if BP would share more information with the scientists.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... =126809525

They said "a Valdez spill every 3 or 4 days" and has been going on for 3 weeks now and no end in sight.

[ninakat]

82_28, I just saw that NPR piece as well -- it's linked from the huge headline currently on RawStory.

EXPERTS: GULF OIL GUSHER TEN TIMES WORSE THAN ESTIMATED

I guess if NPR is weighing in, the propaganda matrix has blown a leak. Or something.

And, mathematically speaking, it's not TEN TIMES worse, it's FOURTEEN FUCKING TIMES worse. Sickening, either way.

[Hugo Farnsworth]

Just heard this on the radio on the way home. AT LEAST TEN TIMES WORSE THAN THOUGHT!

Gulf Spill Could Be Much Worse Than Believed

The volume of oil pouring into the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig may be at least 10 times higher than previously estimated, NPR has learned.

The U.S. Coast Guard has estimated that oil was gushing from a broken pipe on the Gulf floor at the rate of 5,000 barrels a day.

But sophisticated scientific analysis of sea floor video made available Wednesday by the oil company BP shows that the true figure is closer to 70,000 barrels a day, NPR's Richard Harris reports.

That means the oil spilling into the Gulf has already far exceeded the equivalent of the 1989 Exxon Valdez tanker accident in Alaska, which spilled at least 250,000 barrels of oil.

The analysis was conducted by Steve Werely, an associate professor at Purdue University, using a technique called particle image velocimetry. Harris tells Michele Norris that the method is accurate to about 20 percent. That means the flow could range between 56,000 barrels a day and 84,000 barrels a day.

Another analysis by Eugene Chiang, a professor of astrophysics at the University of California Berkeley, calculated the rate of flow to be between 20,000 barrels a day and 100,000 barrels a day — both higher than the Coast Guard's estimate.

But the pipe is spewing both oil and gas and the BP does not make it clear how much is oil and how much gas.

"BP has always said there is no way to measure the amount spilling from the pipe," Harris said.

But, he said, the uncertainty could be reduced if BP would share more information with the scientists.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... =126809525

They said "a Valdez spill every 3 or 4 days" and has been going on for 3 weeks now and no end in sight.

I doubt these figures. One of the Mars wells (Shell) produced 15,000 bpd, and that was a record breaker for the GoM. The total production from the GoM is around 1.5 Mbpd. Nonetheless, the Macondo discovery is an unknown, but several things are certain: It is an unintended casing completion, which means the only choking on it is the riser and BOP stack (and that's not much) and any debris in the well bore (if any). That has also prevented it from collapsing or bridging over, unfortunately. I am going out on a limb here and say it's probably 20,000 to 30,000 bpd. That's awful enough. Please note that they are saying that the amount of gas being produced is unknown, but it is probably quite a lot, GoM wells generally produce copious amounts of gas with oil from oil-bearing formations. If this were taking place in shallow water, no boats would be able to approach the area safely--there would be the possibility of their sinking due to the reduction in the density of the water. At 5,000 feet of water depth and the pressure associated with it and the low water temperatures, most of the gas is hydrating.

From what I have read, lost circulation was a problem with this well, and I feel now more than ever that BP rushed the liner job to finish and cap the well, which setup conditions for the accident to occur. I believe a lack of patience and a plethora of cheapness caused the accident. Keeping the Horizon on location with mud in the riser until the well was known to be fully stabilized before setting plugs would have taken time, perhaps as much as three or four more days. This would have added 2.5 to 3 million dollars to the total cost of the well, something BP would not continence.

[2012 Countdown]

Get a load of this...

Transocean tries to limit liability to $27 million for sunken rig
Thursday, 13 May 2010

Associated Press / WWL First News Reporting
The company that owns the sunken Deepwater Horizon rig said Thursday it will petition a federal court in Houston to cap its overall liability from the incident at less than $27 million.
A Transocean spokesman said it will cite an 1851 law that makes the owner of a sunken vessel liable only for its value after the accident. The $27 million figure reflects the value of oil the rig was holding when it exploded.

If successful, Transocean Ltd. would be left with as much as $533 million in insurance money from the failed venture. That's almost enough to cover the revenue the company was expecting from a three-year contract with BP PLC. However, it has also estimated additional expenses from insurance deductibles, higher insurance premiums and legal fees at about $200 million.
BP, the rig operator who leased the oil platform from Transocean, has repeatedly said that BP will not hide behind a $75 million cap on liability possibly available under federal law.
BP maintains that it will pay all costs of containment and cleanup, as well as any "legitimate" economic damages caused by the spill.

The move comes as lawsuits pile up against Transocean and BP, which leased the rig and is trying to shut off a well that's spewing 210,000 gallons of crude into the Gulf of Mexico each day. In addition, hearings by congressional and administration panels this week have raised questions about safety procedures and equipment employed at the drill site.

Karen McCarthy, a New Orleans lawyer who represents a group of Louisiana crab fishermen in one lawsuit, said she'll oppose the liability cap.
Transocean "will point fingers at BP, but they will also pursue every avenue available to them to limit the loss," she said.

Tim Howard, a Northeastern University law professor who has filed potential class-action lawsuits on behalf of numerous interests in the gulf, predicted Transocean's petition will ultimately fail, and the matter would eventually be merged along with dozens of other lawsuits.
Trying to cap liability is a smart thing to do "if you're Transocean," Howard said. "Because the evidence so far shows a tremendous amount of culpability on their part."
Transocean seeks to cap the amount it would be forced to pay if it loses any of the numerous lawsuits related to the Deepwater Horizon explosion. The company could also delay other proceedings for years while a judge determines the size of Transocean's liability, said Keith Hall, a New Orleans lawyer who represents oil and gas companies.
Transocean has been named in more than 100 class-action, personal injury and wrongful death lawsuits. The plaintiffs, who are seeking billions of dollars, include commercial fishermen, seafood companies, property owners and charter boat captains.

Company CEO Steven Newman told investors earlier this month that its contract with BP holds the oil giant responsible for all damages and liability from the spill.
"There is a long history of contract sanctity in our industry, and we expect that BP will honor that contract," Newman said.
But if investigators find that Transocean failed to meet federal safety guidelines, a judge could throw out any liability limits, Hall said.

http://www.wwl.com/Transocean-tries-to- ... on/7042312

[Jeff]

An Exxon Valdez every four days, nevertheless BP's CEO is a cup half-full kinda guy: "The amount of volume of oil and dispersant we are putting into [the ocean] is tiny in relation to the total water volume."

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0514/gulf-o ... y-bp-boss/

[norton ash]

Ohhh, right. The oceans are very big! Thanks, BP, I feel better now.

[brekin]

Found this fact interesting:

What a spill can do as a huge incident, all of us do incrementally. Daily gasoline runoff from streets, driveways, and other domestic leaks pour nearly 11 million gallons—equal once again to an Exxon Valdez spill—into American waterways every eight months, according to the National Academy of Sciences. The damage from all these spills—from very slight to very Exxon Valdez—lasts years longer than scientists originally thought. The food chain and the world’s waters are being progressively poisoned, as are the coastlines; the damage is outstripping nature’s ability to repair itself.

http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2010 ... 77448.html

[Bruce Dazzling]

White House Allowed BP to Keep Video of Gushing Pipe from Public for Three Weeks
By: Michael Whitney Friday May 14, 2010 6:51 am

The White House allowed BP to hide its video feed of a gushing oil pipe in the Gulf of Mexico from the public for three weeks, all the while that same video played live in the White House Situation Room, ABC reports.

This startling revelation comes just as Obama prepares to get really angry in public about the spill – just in time to cover up his administration’s collusion with BP to hide the true extent of the massive disaster in the Gulf.

Brian Ross and John Soloman of the Center for Public Integrity discussed ABC’s quest to obtain the video of the oil pipe and revealed that the White House consented to the release of a 30 second clip of the pipe.

"At the end of the day, the White House finally acquiesced to the 30 second piece because they understood the political and media pressure," said CPI’s John Soloman. "Why not sooner? It’s been going on for three weeks. People have seen this internally within government almost every day. Why can’t the American people see it?"

The release of even the 30 second video clip showing the oil spewing uninhibited into the ocean immediately led outside observers to conclude the disaster was far worse than the 210,000 gallon estimate of the NOAA and Coast Guard. One scientist predicted to NPR that the rate is more in the range of almost 3 million gallons a day based on an analysis of the video released by BP.

The revelation that the White House and BP kept the true extent of the oil disaster from the public coincides nicely with last night’s news that Obama plans to get "angry" in front of the White House press corps tomorrow about BP’s role in the disaster and its clean up. Don’t be fooled, though. The evidence is mounting that the White House is working in concert with industry to hide the truth about the extent and cause of the spill.

http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/47660

[seemslikeadream]

The evidence is mounting that the White House is working in concert with industry to hide the truth about the extent and cause of the spill

georgie and dick could get away with that, not barry

[justdrew]

"Here's a listing of several scientific and economic guides for estimating the volume of flow of the leak in the Gulf of Mexico erupting at a rate of somewhere around 1 million barrels per day. A new video released shows the largest hole spewing oil and natural gas from an aperture 5 feet in diameter at a rate of approximately 4 barrels per second. The oil coming up through 5,000 feet of pressurized salt water acts like a fractionating column. What you see on the surface is just around 20% of what is actually underneath the approximate 9,000 square miles of slick on the surface. The natural gas doesn't bubble to the top but gets suspended in the water, depleting the oxygen from the water. BP would not have been celebrating with execs on the rig just prior to the explosion if it had not been capable producing at least 500,000 barrels per day — under control. If the rock gave way due to the out-of-control gushing (or due to a nuke being detonated to contain the leak), it could become a Yellowstone Caldera type event, except from below a mile of sea, with a 1/4-mile opening, with up to 150,000 psi of oil and natural gas behind it, from a reserve nearly as large as the Gulf of Mexico containing trillions of barrels of oil. That would be an Earth extinction event."

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-8199-Breakthrough-Energy-Examiner~y2010m5d13-A-volcano-of-oil-erupting

[Bruce Dazzling]

The evidence is mounting that the White House is working in concert with industry to hide the truth about the extent and cause of the spill

georgie and dick could get away with that, not barry

Are you suggesting that progressive journalists ever let Bush and Cheney off the hook for, well, anything?

After all, the article I posted is from firedoglake...

What's your angle here, slad?

[Hugo Farnsworth]

"Here's a listing of several scientific and economic guides for estimating the volume of flow of the leak in the Gulf of Mexico erupting at a rate of somewhere around 1 million barrels per day. A new video released shows the largest hole spewing oil and natural gas from an aperture 5 feet in diameter at a rate of approximately 4 barrels per second. The oil coming up through 5,000 feet of pressurized salt water acts like a fractionating column. What you see on the surface is just around 20% of what is actually underneath the approximate 9,000 square miles of slick on the surface. The natural gas doesn't bubble to the top but gets suspended in the water, depleting the oxygen from the water. BP would not have been celebrating with execs on the rig just prior to the explosion if it had not been capable producing at least 500,000 barrels per day — under control. If the rock gave way due to the out-of-control gushing (or due to a nuke being detonated to contain the leak), it could become a Yellowstone Caldera type event, except from below a mile of sea, with a 1/4-mile opening, with up to 150,000 psi of oil and natural gas behind it, from a reserve nearly as large as the Gulf of Mexico containing trillions of barrels of oil. That would be an Earth extinction event."

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-8199-Breakthrough-Energy-Examiner~y2010m5d13-A-volcano-of-oil-erupting

This is nonsense. The total production from the entire Gulf of Mexico offshore is about 1.5 Mbpd. 150,000 psi? Trillions of barrels of oil? WTF. Where do they get these numbers? Never mind, they just make them up. Batshit WOO stuff like this just hurts the cause.

[justdrew]

"Here's a listing of several scientific and economic guides for estimating the volume of flow of the leak in the Gulf of Mexico erupting at a rate of somewhere around 1 million barrels per day. A new video released shows the largest hole spewing oil and natural gas from an aperture 5 feet in diameter at a rate of approximately 4 barrels per second. The oil coming up through 5,000 feet of pressurized salt water acts like a fractionating column. What you see on the surface is just around 20% of what is actually underneath the approximate 9,000 square miles of slick on the surface. The natural gas doesn't bubble to the top but gets suspended in the water, depleting the oxygen from the water. BP would not have been celebrating with execs on the rig just prior to the explosion if it had not been capable producing at least 500,000 barrels per day — under control. If the rock gave way due to the out-of-control gushing (or due to a nuke being detonated to contain the leak), it could become a Yellowstone Caldera type event, except from below a mile of sea, with a 1/4-mile opening, with up to 150,000 psi of oil and natural gas behind it, from a reserve nearly as large as the Gulf of Mexico containing trillions of barrels of oil. That would be an Earth extinction event."

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-8199-Breakthrough-Energy-Examiner~y2010m5d13-A-volcano-of-oil-erupting

This is nonsense. The total production from the entire Gulf of Mexico offshore is about 1.5 Mbpd. 150,000 psi? Trillions of barrels of oil? WTF. Where do they get these numbers? Never mind, they just make them up. Batshit WOO stuff like this just hurts the cause.

yeah, it does look like total BS. Here's the bio on the author:

Paul Noel, 52, works as Software Engineer (as Contractor) for the US Army at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama. He has a vast experience base including education across a wide area of technical skills and sciences. He supplies technical expertise in all areas required for new products development associated with the US Army office he works in. He supplies extensive expertise in understanding the Oil and Gas industry as well.

While not an "expert" in the field, he knows nearly as much as most industry experts. The difference? He's not afraid to talk.

Born in Lynnwood Washington, he came to Huntsville Alabama, when his father moved to be part of NASA’s effort to put men on the moon. Neil Armstrong may have gotten the ride, but his father’s computers did the driving.

Paul is also a founding member of the New Energy Congress.

However, while the numbers above and in the article I linked to must be wrong, I do think there is a risk here not unlike what is presented in the section I posted, though different in magnitude.

The well is not drilled through solid hard rock all the way down... if the oil/gas flow breaks out of the casing and cemented areas into the soft seabed...

[Bruce Dazzling]

This is from the same cat justdrew just quoted above.

Paul Noel, a software engineer currently working for the U.S. Army at Redstone Arsenal, AL, who has expertise in the oil and gas industry, writes in Pure Energy Systems News:

I...think that the situation is getting further and further out of hand. The nature of the crude had changed, indicating that the spill was collapsing the rock structures. If it is collapsing the rock structures, the least that can be said is that the rock is fragmenting and blowing up the tube with the oil. With that going on you have a high pressure abrasive sand blaster working on the kinks in the pipe eroding it causing the very real risk of increasing the leaks.

More than that is the very real risk of causing the casing to become unstable and literally blowing it up the well bringing the hole to totally open condition. Another risk arises because according to reports the crew was cementing the exterior of the casing when this happens. As a result, the well, if this was not properly completed, could begin to blow outside the casing. Another possible scenario is a sea floor collapse. If that happens Katie bar the door.

The above is from this Boston Examiner article:

http://www.examiner.com/x-38220-Orlando ... L-imminent

[Nordic]

Oil spill could go on for years, experts say

The retired chairman of an energy investment banking firm told National Geographic in little-noticed comments Thursday that efforts to stop the oil leak under the Gulf of Mexico could prove fruitless and than oil could gush into the ocean for years.

Matthew Simmons, retired chair of the energy-industry investment bank Simmons & Company, said that BP and the US military's engineers are more or less clueless about cutting off the flow.

"We don't have any idea how to stop this," Simmons said. The former banker mocked a proposal to try and plug the leak with trash, saying it was a "joke."

Simmons noted that the pressure at 5,000 feet undersea -- where the well site is located -- is so high, that containment efforts are likely often to fail. At 5,000 feet underwater, blocking elements have to be able to hold even with pressures off 40,000 pounds per square inch.

Incoming American Association of Petroleum Geologists chief David Resink says the oil reservoir that is feeding the spill is colossal.

Story continues below...


"You're talking about a reservoir that could have tens of millions of barrels in it," Resink said. At the current spill rate, it "would take years to deplete," he added.

According to a scientific analysis of footage from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico showing the leak, National Public Radio claimed Thursday that the growing ecological disaster is actually ten times worse than previously estimated, saying the rushing torrent of oil pouring into the ocean is equivalent to one Exxon-Valdez spill every four days.

That's more than 70,000 barrels a day -- when the U.S. Coast Guard had placed the figure at a seemingly modest 5,000 barrels a day.

Until this point in human history, the Exxon-Valdez disaster was just one of the worst oil spills ever, with nearly 11 million gallons of crude lost to the murky depths.

The Deepwater Horizon well has been jetting oil unabated for just short of one month at time of this writing. Already, the pollution exceeds a scale which most individual humans can fully grasp.

As far as those other articles, they are at examiner.com, which is a place where amateurs are paid pennies to write "articles". Take with large grain of salt.