Canada election watch

[JackRiddler]

If you're lucky the Liberals get busted down to 12 percent, Ignatieff will be beheaded by his own crew, and the rump party makes a better coalition partner for the NDP.

If you're really lucky, of course, the NDP gets 42 percent and a majority!

ON EDIT: In the interest of completeness, if you're really really really lucky, the means for low-cost household hydrogen fusion at zero risk are discovered tomorrow to already be in the public domain, and an unexpected multi-dimensional brane shift causes all heavy radioactive elements on earth to spontaneously turn into gold, with the resulting radiation release absorbed harmlessly in an outer-space zone of a parallel universe. Then it turns out Jesus is real and he's back and reigning and he's the really good Jesus a.k.a. Buddha a.k.a. Athena a.k.a. Name Yours and a spontaneous wave of enlightenment and love for all sweeps the planet and swords into ploughshares and suffer the little children and a total breakdown of traditional sex roles and we're all one big happy tribe with 6000 languages and one search engine at the beginning of an orgiastic and intellectually stimulating cosmic ride to immortality (as humans, without microchips in the brain) colonizing the whole galaxy in peaceful collaboration with the Vegan and Sirian sister-brother-its (they're trisexual) we meet along the way. And we do our best to provide reparations and a clean ocean to the cetaceans, whose languages will be studied in our universities and whose Ambassador Shamu Flipperius III will one day be unanimously acclaimed Secretary General of the United Nations of Sentient Earth Species. Amen.

In which case, an NDP win is bonus!

.

[Jeff]

A nice one for May Day from UPI. Count the s-words.

Canada on left-right election tightrope

TORONTO, May 1 (UPI) -- Canada's fourth federal election in seven years Monday pits the economically Conservative minority government against a surprise rally by socialists.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have led in all polls published since his government was brought down by an opposition coalition non-confidence vote in late March although there has been a surge in the past week away from Michael Ignatieff's Liberals in favor of the socialist New Democratic Party led by Jack Layton.

Traditionally, the NDP has ranked third in polls to the Conservatives and Liberals federally. However, Layton's populist campaign style has apparently won over many Liberal voters with various polls showing the NDP in second place, fewer than 10 points behind the Conservatives.

Harper, who has a master's degree in economics, has steadfastly campaigned on getting the country's economy out of deficit by 2014. Ignatieff and Layton targeted Harper's five years in power with criticisms of policies that include purchasing new fighter jets, building more prisons and seeking to abolish a national rifle registry.

...

Should polls published Friday prove accurate after Monday's election, Canada could again be led by a minority government faced with an unprecedented socialist opposition.

...

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/ ... 304240400/

BTW, the massage smear appears to have massively backfired. Layton's numbers on leadership have spiked 17 points since the story broke, and now leads Harper by 11. Two more big polls expected today, I believe promising good things, and then it's off to the local campaign office for a brief Jack splashdown.

[stoneonstone]

Another quick video that seems to be spiking lately.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEsXSb_JJSU

Peter Russell talks about parliamentary crimes.

(Almost a Bob Elliott character, but nicely done.....)

[Jeff]

A sign of suddenly how desperate the Dark Side may be.

Harper's last campaign stop is in BC, for a late-scheduled rally in Abbotsford riding, his first visit. The Conservatives carried it in 2008 with 63%; the NDP candidate claimed just 13%.

The visit is seen by some as a last ditch attempt to shore up the fortunes of incumbent Conservative candidate Ed Fast who is facing a large upsurge in popularity for the NDP in what has always been described as a ‘safe’ seat. NDP candidate Davide Murray told Today he is flattered by the attention his hard work in the riding has caused.

http://www.abbotsfordtoday.ca/?p=58551

[Canadian_watcher]

We just got back from the rally here! SO energized!
I'd say there were between 400-500 ppl there but I could be off - it could be a lot more since I couldn't get near going inside the building and there was a whole back lot, too. We were out front of the campaign office which is right on the main downtown street so it was just this really long line of people on both sides .. not a great set up.

I so wish they would have chosen a better venue but they might not have anticipated the numbers. Anyway, the crowd cheered madly during his speech and he looked great. Even the police were smiling.

!!!!!

[Jeff]

He's expected here 6:45.

"Let's be clear. A vote for the NDP is not a protest vote. A vote for the NDP is a vote for an NDP government."

I approve this message.

[Canadian_watcher]

He's expected here 6:45.

"Let's be clear. A vote for the NDP is not a protest vote. A vote for the NDP is a vote for an NDP government."

I approve this message.

that is great! aww, how cute.. he's on our side!

[Jeff]

The final EKOS poll:



Two points, still trending up.

HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS! CAMPAIGN 41 DRAWING TO A HEART STOPPING CONCLUSION - May 1, 2011

...

Using these numbers, and we will reserve the final forecast until later this evening, we would see a Conservative minority where the NDP were within 20 seats and the NDP and the Liberals combined would have a narrow majority between them. This means that if there was common will between the NDP and the Liberals, they would have both the legal (and according to our recent polling on the topic) the moral authority to swiftly dispatch Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party.

There are, however, some final movements which could alter the final configuration of the next parliament. At the top of the list are younger and women voters. Although these voters have moved dramatically to the NDP, they are still somewhat less committed to their choices. There is, however, little evidence that they are actually likely to move as their second choices (Liberals and Greens are fading). Ontario remains crucial and there may be evidence of a late strengthening of Conservative support (possibly due to the leak of the massage incident).

It is also the case that there is massive vote splitting which favours the Conservative Party. It is notable that the Conservatives are ticketed to do much better than they did in 2006 but with a significantly lower share of the popular vote.

Quebec is abandoning the Bloc Quebecois even further and the NDP could virtually sweep that province in a breathtaking development. Collectively, Quebeckers are most responsible for what will be a dramatically different Parliament. A key remaining question is whether the final vote will all show up. The Conservatives are certain to do so and the NDP voters say they are equally resolved. However, the resolve of the Conservative supporters is proven while the NDP vote a little less so. Offsetting that potential advantage, however, is that most of the remaining softer vote (i.e., women, younger voters, dispirited Liberal and Bloc supporters, and quite significantly the one million odd Green voters) is much more likely to turn NDP than to any other choice. The NDP ceiling is now 55 points, fully 11 points above the Conservative Party.

British Columbia shows a strong Conservative base but also a remarkable rise in NDP support and the party now leads insignificantly there. There have been no real changes in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but the NDP may well be on the rise in Manitoba. Ontario is showing the Conservative Party widening its lead slightly but mostly due to a saw off in the now tied NDP-Liberal race. Quebec is painting itself orange in a remarkable display of unanimity. The Atlantic provinces remain locked in a tight three-way struggle but the NDP are showing a late spurt there which has placed them in the lead.

We are going to take the unprecedented step of interviewing on the final day of the campaign. We are also going to apply a sophisticated multivariate commitment index to try and focus as accurately as possible on those who have or will actually vote. Coupling the latest data and these refinements to focusing on those most likely to vote, we will offer our final forecast tonight around 10 pm.

Right now, it appears as if Canadians are going to elect a conservative minority with the NDP close behind. At this stage, our best guess is that the combined opposition forces, without the Bloc Quebecois, would have a majority of seats in this new parliament which could ring a death knell for Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2 ... ay-1-2011/

[Canadian_watcher]

I cannot wait to mark my ballot!

[Jeff]

We can't let these NDP jokers have the keys to our country

Ezra Levant, Sunday, May 1, 2011

...

Take Dennis Perrier, the NDP candidate from Medicine Hat. He says he’s running hard because he wants to bring socialism to power — so the government can “pool tax money for the benefit of all.”

Got it? Everybody puts their money in a pot and the government divides it up. Animal Farm-style.

New kind of nutty

That’s just old-fashioned socialism. But the NDP has newfangled weirdness amongst their candidates, too. Dave Nickle, the party’s candidate in Peterborough, Ont., has a very special theory about what our Canadian peacekeepers are doing in Afghanistan. They’re not there to fight the Taliban or to protect Afghan girls who want to go to school. No, they’re there to help secure a pipeline that America wants to build. “I find I get more and more angry,” says Nickle. Okaaay.

Nickle isn’t the only conspiracy theorist at home in the NDP. So is David Laird in Burlington, Ont. He knows who the real terrorists are. The U.S. government. No — not the real U.S. government, not even George W. Bush. But a hidden hand. In response to a petition about secret government agencies, he said: “We all know that there is no greater terrorist threat … than the secret government operating in the U.S.A.”

Thank goodness a man with that kind of super-secret knowledge is going to be — well, what will he be if he’s elected? Foreign affairs minister? Maybe in charge of CSIS? Or the minister for UFOs?

...

Get to know these names. Soon we might be calling them “boss.”

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/04/29/we ... ur-country

[Feilan]

Ezra Levant wrote:

Dave Nickle, the party’s candidate in Peterborough, Ont., has a very special theory about what our Canadian peacekeepers are doing in Afghanistan. They’re not there to fight the Taliban or to protect Afghan girls who want to go to school. No, they’re there to help secure a pipeline that America wants to build. “I find I get more and more angry,” says Nickle. Okaaay.

yah. yah right, Ezra. That's just CRAZEE talk, eh?



... so ... Ezra Levant refers to the current raft of 'soft-serve' fascists driving the shitcar previously known as parliamentary democracy in Canada (maintenance, maintenance, maintenance, people!) as "boss" ...? O'rly?

... listening to Rex do his Sunday kitchen table thing ... he asks Donna - "Donna, why do you think people dislike Harper so intensely?", and Donna says "I don't knoooooooooow, Rex."

Honest to God. WTF? WHERE do these people come from? What the HELL is wrong with them? How the heck does Rex ask questions like that without choking on his own tongue?

I want to believe. I also don't want to set myself up for the absolute fucking despair that results *might* provoke, sending me screaming off to the too-convenient-convenience store for a pack of smokes. Like we're in some kind of Ground Hog Day -cum- federal election time loop: smoke 'em if you got 'em. Quitting wasn't easy and I feel itchy. I know this isn't anything like last week when the Hab's lost in game 7 ... but the feeeeee-ling is familiar...

To what extant can we really build a house of dreams on polling? When pollsters reported that Harper was leading just WHO were they talking to? That robot ass can't get more than less than a third of the support of eligible voters in a federal election and yet he's everybody's favourite sweater vest *most of the time*?? REALLY? Everytime I hear that kitten-molesting freak GET credit for Canada's narrow escape from the most dire economic consequences of Wall Street's recent fire-sale, my guts unravel. I throw up in my mouth - A LOT.

... if Cross-Country-Check-up can be thought of as an informal poll - I should feel somewhat reassured. Why don't I?

Maybe it's because my parents (72 years old...) will almost certainly toss Harper ANOTHER pair of 2$ bones just because - to paraphrase my mother on the phone t'other night - she just wishes "someone" would get a majority so we could forget about all this. SIGH

She's not alone. She's also not calling up Rex Murphy to shoot the shite on a Sunday. She boiled it all down - ALL of it - every last steaming pile the Harper government has dumped on the lot of us, and came up with the anti-analysis that the trouble is he hasn't had a majority with which to render non-confidence motions moot once and for all.

I love my mother, I do, BUT COME ON!

I'm sorry for littering this thread with my gloom and hard-wired dread... who could have imagined that Mulroney's perfidy and Gucci branded smug would one day smell like President's Choice Memories of a Simpler, Criminally Quaint Political Era. I still remember being 18 and really, really excited about voting for the first time.

The bloom is . off . the . rose.

[Canadian_watcher]

Ezra Levant wrote:

Dave Nickle, the party’s candidate in Peterborough, Ont., has a very special theory about what our Canadian peacekeepers are doing in Afghanistan. They’re not there to fight the Taliban or to protect Afghan girls who want to go to school. No, they’re there to help secure a pipeline that America wants to build. “I find I get more and more angry,” says Nickle. Okaaay.

yah. yah right, Ezra. That's just CRAZEE talk, eh?



... so ... Ezra Levant refers to the current raft of 'soft-serve' fascists driving the shitcar previously known as parliamentary democracy in Canada (maintenance, maintenance, maintenance, people!) as "boss" ...? O'rly?

... listening to Rex do his Sunday kitchen table thing ... he asks Donna - "Donna, why do you think people dislike Harper so intensely?", and Donna says "I don't knoooooooooow, Rex."

Honest to God. WTF? WHERE do these people come from? What the HELL is wrong with them? How the heck does Rex ask questions like that without choking on his own tongue?

I want to believe. I also don't want to set myself up for the absolute fucking despair that results *might* provoke, sending me screaming off to the too-convenient-convenience store for a pack of smokes. Like we're in some kind of Ground Hog Day -cum- federal election time loop: smoke 'em if you got 'em. Quitting wasn't easy and I feel itchy. I know this isn't anything like last week when the Hab's lost in game 7 ... but the feeeeee-ling is familiar...

To what extant can we really build a house of dreams on polling? When pollsters reported that Harper was leading just WHO were they talking to? That robot ass can't get more than less than a third of the support of eligible voters in a federal election and yet he's everybody's favourite sweater vest *most of the time*?? REALLY? Everytime I hear that kitten-molesting freak GET credit for Canada's narrow escape from the most dire economic consequences of Wall Street's recent fire-sale, my guts unravel. I throw up in my mouth - A LOT.

... if Cross-Country-Check-up can be thought of as an informal poll - I should feel somewhat reassured. Why don't I?

Maybe it's because my parents (72 years old...) will almost certainly toss Harper ANOTHER pair of 2$ bones just because - to paraphrase my mother on the phone t'other night - she just wishes "someone" would get a majority so we could forget about all this. SIGH

She's not alone. She's also not calling up Rex Murphy to shoot the shite on a Sunday. She boiled it all down - ALL of it - every last steaming pile the Harper government has dumped on the lot of us, and came up with the anti-analysis that the trouble is he hasn't had a majority with which to render non-confidence motions moot once and for all.

I love my mother, I do, BUT COME ON!

I'm sorry for littering this thread with my gloom and hard-wired dread... who could have imagined that Mulroney's perfidy and Gucci branded smug would one day smell like President's Choice Memories of a Simpler, Criminally Quaint Political Era. I still remember being 18 and really, really excited about voting for the first time.

The bloom is . off . the . rose.

no need to apologize - that was an excellent rant!

[JackRiddler]

.

Feilan, welcome.

You should stick around.

.

[Jeff]

Feilan, what my friends said.

Was just standing in a sweltering campaign office for an hour until we heard Jack's bus had just left Oshawa. Another hour, I don't think I can wait. My family's already indulging me enough. Still a huge crowd waiting, spilling into the street in the rain, a piper playing.

The BBC catches up:

Canada's 2 May general election may trigger a political earthquake: Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives could be thrown out by a left-wing party that once trailed in the polls, reports the BBC's Andrew North from Toronto.

"You're from the BBC? You mean the BBC?" the Canadian voters we met typically asked.

"Yes, the BBC," I said.

"So what are you doing here? You should be covering the royal wedding."

Hardly a vote of confidence in the importance of their own elections.

True, Canada's third elections in only five years were always going to struggle for attention, even if Prince William and his bride had not been walking down the aisle.

It is just possible, though, that Canada is on the verge of a political earthquake.

...

Out on the stump in the constituency of Brampton-Springdale, one of the key battlegrounds, one could feel the change in mood.

"I'm voting for this guy," says one elderly man, pointing to a campaign leaflet picture of the NDP leader, as the party's local candidate Manjit Grewal went door to door.

With disgust in his voice, he admits that he voted for the Conservative Party in the last election.

"They're only for the rich people, the Conservatives and Liberals," says Hazel Crawford, explaining why she intends to vote for the NDP.

Mr Grewal, a local taxi driver and first-time candidate, acknowledges his surprise at the response he has been getting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13246863

Brampton-Springdale, 2008 results:

LIB 18,577 (41%)
CON 17,804 (39.3%)
NDP 5,238 (11.6%)

[Feilan]

Thank you all. I just checked in with my ever fluxuating electoral emotions and discovered I'm suddenly wearing my *party*hat - it's purple, but that's only because I'm not down with matching hats. or t-shirts. I'm all orange on the inside

fwiw, Jack - your "if we're lucky" scenario:

... the Liberals get busted down to 12 percent, Ignatieff will be beheaded by his own crew, and the rump party makes a better coalition partner for the NDP.

is gonna get me through the night.

I will also be assiduous in my emotional crisis management efforts to follow buddhist/hindu advice about nonattachment to results...
I LOLed:

"You're from the BBC? You mean the BBC?" the Canadian voters we met typically asked.

"Yes, the BBC," I said.

"So what are you doing here? You should be covering the royal wedding."