What is the Climate Issue?•What are the physics of the atmosphere?
•What are the hypotheses & theories?
•What are the data sources?
•What predictions do the models make?
•What hypotheses do the data support or
disprove?
Hypotheses• Warmists: man-made CO2 is driving the thermal balance
• Skeptics: natural processes govern the thermal balance. Recent weather is not unusual
• Nature exhibits cyclic processes not well understood
• El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic
Decadal Oscillation (ADO), Eddy Cycle, De Vries/Suess solar cycle, etc.
• Except Milankovitch cycles are understood, but are very long term
....
Predictions• Warmists:
•
Based on computer models, temperatures will rise a
specific amount, storms will become more severe,
droughts will increase, sea level rise will accelerate, polar
ice caps will decrease and more
• Skeptics:
•
Some warming will occur, but nothing extraordinary,
and
not unprecedented in recent history
40 Years of Observation• The warmists are wrong.
• There has been no increase in observed water vapor
• There has been no observed “tropic hot spot”, necessary if the
increased water vapor hypothesis were correct
• All their forecasts have failed
• The observed temperature increase is in agreement with the
skeptics’ model
...
EDITS made to charts:
...
Weather is NOT getting more extreme
• Following charts are USHCN data, 1918 to 2018
• Blue lines are annual data
• Red lines are 5 yr averages
...
Model IssuesAs climate modeller Syukuro Manabe has said:
“The climate model is a very good tool for
understanding climate, but a very bad tool for
predicting climate”.
Most fields of science don’t accept a model unless it has
been rigorously validated against available data, but
climate science is different; the modelling process itself
frequently seems to be accepted as evidence that the
climate model is correct, a circular chain of reasoning
which leads to positions which outside of climate science
would be considered absurd.
•[C]limatologists tell the models there will
be strong CO2-driven warming; sure
enough, the models tell the climatologists
the same; and the climatologists cite the
outputs of the models as purported
justification for the article of faith that they
had built into the models in the first place.
IPCC’s Statement• As the IPCC itself said (AR4 WG1): “we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that the longterm prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of
Global Air Temperature ProjectionsFront. Earth Sci., 06 September 2019
• A directly relevant GCM calibration metric is the annual average ±12.1% error
in global annual average cloud fraction produced within CMIP5 climate
models. This error is strongly pair-wise correlated across models, implying a
source in deficient theory. The resulting long-wave cloud forcing (LWCF) error
introduces an annual average ±4 Wm–2 uncertainty into the simulated
tropospheric thermal energy flux.
• This annual ±4 Wm–2 simulation uncertainty is ±114 × larger than the annual
average ∼0.035 Wm–2 change in tropospheric thermal energy flux produced
by increasing GHG forcing since 1979
• Patrick Frank, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University,
Menlo Park, CA, United States
Science Mag: “Missed wind patterns are throwing off
climate forecasts of rain and storms”, July 29, 2020• Excerpts:
• For example, models predicted that the Horn of Africa,
which is heavily influenced by Indian Ocean winds, would
get wetter with climate change. But since the early
1990s, rains have plummeted, and the region has dried.
•
What’s not clear yet is why climate models get
circulation changes so wrong.• But until modelers figure out how to confidently forecast
changes in the winds, Smith says,
“We can’t take the
models at face value."----
• I believe the largest model errors are the result of a lack of knowledge of the temperature dependent changes in clouds and precipitation efficiency (thus freetropospheric vapor, thus water vapor “feedback”) that actually occur in response to a long-term forcing of the system from increasing carbon dioxide.
• My main complaint is that modelers are either deceptive about, or unaware of, the uncertainties in the myriad assumptions — both explicit and implicit — that have gone into those models.
-- September 11th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
---
•These flawed models are the ONLY support for the hypothesis that CO2 is driving “climate change”
•These models which have failed in EVERY measurable projection they have made are still relied on to justify a solution by eliminating CO2
---
Maldives Threat of Drowning• Former president Mohamed Nasheed has been highly
outspoken about this issue,
saying in 2012 that
"If carbon
emissions continue at the rate they are climbing today, my
country will be under water in seven years.“• "First of all, I want give you a bit of good news. The good news
is that the Maldives is not about to disappear," President
Waheed said countering the claims by his predecessor that the
Maldives would be be completely submerged in the near future
August 24, 2012
• “Egg on Their Faces:
The Maldives Still Above the Waves 30
Years After Environmentalist Prediction”•
Maldives to open five new airports in 2019Mann’s Hockey Stick• Global Warming Bombshell
“A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate
change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics.”
MIT Technology Review, October 15, 2004• McIntyre and McKitrick created some meaningless test data that
had, on average, no trends. This method of generating random data
is called Monte Carlo analysis, after the famous casino, and it is
widely used in statistical analysis to test procedures. When
McIntyre and McKitrick fed these random data into the Mann
procedure, out popped a hockey stick shape!
---
New paleoclimate records from Europe, Scandinavia-Russia,
China, and the northeastern USA indicate there has been no
unusual modern warming. Instead, these
newly published
reconstructions show warmer periods and more rapid
centennial-scale warming events occurred in past centuries, or
when CO2 concentrations were much lower than they are now.•
None of these Northern Hemisphere temperature
reconstructions indicate there has been any unusual modern
warming relative to the natural temperature variations of the
last few millennia.• Warmists still deny that the MWP was global or warmer than
now
---
News Clippings:
• Global coal-fired generation capacity saw a net decline of 2.9
gigawatts (GW) from January to June, the first drop on record
for a six-month period, thanks to plant retirements in Europe
and elsewhere, the U.S.-based think tank Global Energy
Monitor (GEM) said in the study.
• SHANGHAI:
China has nearly 250 gigawatts (GW) of
coal-fired power now under development, more than the
entire coal power capacity of the United States, a new
study said on Thursday, casting doubt on the country's
commitments to cutting fossil fuel use.
- Reuters, June 25, 2020, 08:28 IST
Forget Paris: Russia Boosts Coal Production: Will Be
World’s Top Exporter Within DecadeRussia Today, 2 May 2020
The world’s largest coal-producing country, Russia,
plans to increase its output and exports over the
next 15 years. Russia’s share of the global coal export
market is projected to expand to 25 percent from the
current 11 percent.
---
Warren Buffet on Wind Energy• "I will do anything that is basically covered
by the law to reduce Berkshire's tax rate,"
Buffet told an audience in Omaha, Nebraska
recently. "For example, on wind energy, we
get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms.
That's the only reason to build them.
They
don't make sense without the tax credit."
---
"One thing that has made California’s grid so
vulnerable to soaring demand is the state’s rapid
shift away from natural gas. About 9 gigawatts of
gas generation, enough to power 6.8 million
homes, have been retired over the past five years
as the state turns increasingly to renewables,
according to BloombergNEF. That leaves fewer
options when the sun sets and solar production
wanes."
Summary• The null hypothesis – “the observed climate is within normal
variations” – has not been disproved. It is well within
statistical bounds
•
The AGW hypothesis has been disproven, and in fact, there
is no scientific evidence of it.• All projections of this hypothesis have failed.
•
The only support of the hypothesis are the computer modelswhich are known to be in error
•
The Medieval Warm Period and the Roman Warm Period
demonstrate against the hypothesis that man-made CO2 is
causing unusual global warming
...
So What?• Massive mis-investment chasing unnecessary and ineffective
solutions regarding CO2
• Inefficient and ecologically harmful “green energy” solutions
• Restrictive regulations
• Carbon tax and subsides distorting market
• Distraction from ecological problems we could solve
• Wetland preservation
• Clean water issues
• Agricultural runoff control
• Chemical and pharma pollutions (Prozac, hormones, cocaine, etc.
in water)
Some Famous Skeptics:
•
Roy Spencer (born December 20, 1955) is a meteorologist, a principal research scientist at
the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced
Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite. He has served as senior
scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center.
•
John Christy is a Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center
at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). He has also been Alabama's State Climatologist
since November 2000.
•
Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace. PhD in Ecology
•
Don Easterbrook Geology Professor Emeritus, WWU
•
Ray Pielke, Jr. has been on the faculty of the University of Colorado since 2001
•
Richard Lindzen, emeritus professor of meteorology at MIT, Alfred P. Sloan Professor, beginning in
1983. Prior to that he was the Robert P. Burden Professor of Dynamic Meteorology at Harvard
University.
•
Judith Curry is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Her research interests include hurricanes, remote
sensing, atmospheric modeling, polar climates, air-sea interactions
•
Bob Carter (9 March 1942 – 19 January 2016) was an English palaeontologist, stratigrapher and
marine geologist. He was professor and head of the School of Earth Sciences at James Cook
University in Australia from 1981 to 1998
Warmists who have become Skeptics:
•
Claude Allegre, prominent French scientist and socialist
•
Ivar Giaever, former science advisor to Obama
•
James Lovelock, developer of the Gaia Principle
•
William Briggs, Statistician
•
Caleb Rossiter, Policy expert, Climate statistician
•
David Bodkin, former Chair Envio. Studies, UCalif.
•
Richard Tol, IPCC – had his name removed from IPCC report
•
Philip Stott, Univ. London
•
Denis Rancourt, Univ. Ottawa
•
John Theon, Sr. Atmospheric Scientist, NASA
•
Michael Schellenberger, Prominent Environmental Activist
Peer-reviewed Skeptical Papers Bibliography•
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/1 ... rting.html• This is a bibliographic resource for skeptics not a list of skeptics.
Lists of skeptical scientists can be found here:
• 31,487 Scientists Reject AGW Alarmism
•
https://shepherdgazette.com/49-nasa-sci ... -the-fact/• 1100 Climate Realists sign 'The Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change'
• 1000+ International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming
Claims
• 300+ Eminent Scientists Reject U.N. Climate Change Treaty
•
https://www.iceagenow.com/More_than_100 ... uke%20Obama.htm
“I would like to add something that’s not essential to the
science, but something I kind of believe, which is that you
should not fool the layman when you’re talking as a
scientist. I’m talking about a specific, extra type of integrity
that is not lying, but bending over backwards to show how
you’re maybe wrong, that you ought to do when acting as
a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists,
certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.”
• Richard Feynman, Cargo Cult ScienceTop Recommendations:• Restoring Scientific Debate on Climate
•
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/03/ ... onclimate/• Excellent extensive set of links to all climate issues, pro and con
•
https://sealevel.info/learnmore.html• Video on opening page of 1st link is a complete review of this topic. The link is
“Climate Curious” and the video is “Siegal Climate Movie 2”
•
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06ac0CuFevw• Many other good videos here
•
http://www.climatedepot.com/wp-content/ ... _FINAL.pdfWhen a politician says, concerning an issue involving
science, that the debate is over, you can be sure of two
things: The debate is raging, and he is losing.• This first link is a short discussion about the climate debate (you might read this short piece first):
•
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/the-dysfun ... te-debate/• The next is probably the most popular skeptic site and is usually updated daily.
•
https://wattsupwiththat.com/• This site concentrates on scientific published papers and has a large and detailed subject index
•
http://www.co2science.org/• GWPF is a UK organization that provides emails (if you sign up) with current worldwide articles
•
https://www.thegwpf.org/ Newsletter at Benny Peiser
peiser@thegwpf.com•
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Z5FdwWw_c and
•
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=pa ... 58&mid=90260FF6BD50034C725A90260FF6BD50034C725A&view=detail&FORM=VIRE Patrick Moore’s talks on CO2
•
https://realclimatescience.com/ https://judithcurry.com/ http://www.drroyspencer.com/• A site that explains CO2 and the benefits of (and necessity for) CO2
•
http://co2coalition.org/• Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT)
https://www.cfact.org/ 
) and pretend you've just disproved man-made climate change.
