Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

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Postby chiggerbit » Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:28 am

I'm no health expert, but I think it's possible that a mutation could occur in one person, but not another, so that those cases of Cancun vacationers who returned home with the less virulent form may have a different strain than those cases coming directly from, say for instance, Mexico City or Acapulco. Sure, this could and likely will fizzle out and look like it was over-hyped. So what? The hype is about the potential, not the probable. Use your common sense, take some precations, just in case.
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Postby Trifecta » Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:36 am

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the future is already here—it just got distributed to the wealthy first
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Postby slimmouse » Thu Apr 30, 2009 10:48 am

couple of "Swine flu snippets" that caught my eye;


U.S. Air Force Study Proposed 2009 Influenza Pandemic in 1996

'On June 17, 1996, the U.S. Air Force released Air Force 2025, "a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future." In the unclassified study, the College of Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama posed several "fictional representations of future situations/scenarios" likely to arise.

In Chapter five, the authors present a timeline figure representing "plausible history." In 2009, according to the figure, influenza will kill 30 million people. "A similar influenza pandemic occurred in the past," a footnote explains, making a reference to the influenza epidemic of 1918 and 1919, described as "one of the worst human catastrophes on record. It has been estimated that more than 20 million people around the world died during the epidemic, and of the 20 million people who suffered from the illness in the United States, approximately 850,000 died".'


Link ; http://www.infowars.com/us-air-force-st ... c-in-1996/

I obviously dont like the word "proposed" in the title, though I still find the sychronicity rather interesting. And then theres this;


"Swine Flu Was Cultured In A Laboratory", Dr. John Carlo, Dallas Co. Medical Director says


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LcKoiTEJKc


And just some speculation on my part. Im of the belief that the domesticated pig is quite conceivably the result of Genetic engineering going waaaaaaaay back. ( The pig has all its organs in exactly the same place as humans).

If this is indeed the case, then I suspect that swine flu may be infinitely more dangerous to humans than bird flu ever could have been, indeed was.

On Edit; Apparently the 1918 pandemic also contained strains of Swine flu. Never knew that before !
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Postby stickdog99 » Thu Apr 30, 2009 12:06 pm

slimmouse wrote:
"Swine Flu Was Cultured In A Laboratory", Dr. John Carlo, Dallas Co. Medical Director says


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LcKoiTEJKc



That video is title is misleading. The man is simply talking about culturing the virus for identification.
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu Apr 30, 2009 12:42 pm

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Postby chiggerbit » Thu Apr 30, 2009 12:50 pm

This Apr 24th article was updated, and the update indicated in blue, but that blue didn't come across in the posting, so see link.

http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/bios ... vents.html

April 24, 2009
Swine Flu in Mexico- Timeline of Events

Introduction

At Veratect, we operate two operations centers based in the United States (one in the Washington, DC area and one in Seattle, WA) that provide animal and human infectious disease event detection and tracking globally. Both operations centers are organizationally modeled after our National Weather Service using a distinct methodology inspired by the natural disaster and meteorology communities. Our analysts handle information in the native vernacular language and have been thoroughly trained in their discipline, which include cultural-specific interpretation of the information. We are currently partnered with 14 organizations that provide us with direct ground observations in 238 countries. We are a multi-source, near-real time event detection and tracking organization with years of experience in this discipline.

March 30

Veratect reported that a 47-year-old city attorney for Cornwall was hospitalized in a coma at Ottawa General Hospital following a recent trip to Mexico. Family members reported the individual voluntarily reported to the hospital after gradually feeling ill upon returning from his trip on 22 March. The source stated that the hospital did not know the cause of illness. The case was reportedly on a respirator and awaiting a blood transfusion, but sources did not provide symptoms or a suggested cause of illness. This information was available in our web portal to all clients, including CDC and multiple US state and local public health authorities, however no one had connected this man’s illness with a potential crisis in Mexico.

We have learned this case tested negative according to Canadian officials. The only value this event would have had would have been to tip someone to take a closer look at where this individual traveled in Mexico, possibly stumbling on reports of 'unusual respiratory disease- we have absolutely no indication anyone did this, or if they did they found anything to prompt closer scrutiny. We certainly didn't.

April 2

Local media source Imagen del Golfo reported that state health officials recorded a 15% increase in disease over an unspecified period in the highland areas of Veracruz, which includes La Gloria. The increase was primarily due to higher levels of upper respiratory disease and gastroenteritis. Specifically, officials noted an increase in pneumonia and bronchial pneumonia cases. Health officials attributed the increase to seasonal climate changes.

I would like to be clear here- we are aware local media sources apparently reported this on April 2nd, but we ourselves did not nor posted it on April 2nd.

April 6

Veratect reported local health officials declared a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in La Gloria, Perote Municipality, Veracruz State, Mexico. Sources characterized the event as a "strange" outbreak of acute respiratory infection, which led to bronchial pneumonia in some pediatric cases. According to a local resident, symptoms included fever, severe cough, and large amounts of phlegm. Health officials recorded 400 cases that sought medical treatment in the last week in La Gloria, which has a population of 3,000; officials indicated that 60% of the town’s population (approximately 1,800 cases) has been affected. No precise timeframe was provided, but sources reported that a local official had been seeking health assistance for the town since February.

Residents claimed that three pediatric cases, all under two years of age, died from the outbreak. However, health officials stated that there was no direct link between the pediatric deaths and the outbreak; they stated the three fatal cases were "isolated" and "not related" to each other.

Residents believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to "flu." However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.

And to be crystal clear, the way we used this information was to simply flag an event as worthy of closer scrutiny and higher awareness, as there was absolutely no proof of true involvement of this company in the outbreak- a proper epidemiological investigation is required to prove such links.

Local health officials had implemented several control measures in response to the outbreak. A health cordon was established around La Gloria. Officials launched a spraying and cleaning operation that targeted the fly suspected to be the disease vector. State health officials also implemented a vaccination campaign against influenza, although sources noted physicians ruled out influenza as the cause of the outbreak. Finally, officials announced an epidemiological investigation that focused on any cases exhibiting symptoms since 10 March.

This information was available in our web portal to all clients, including CDC and multiple US state and local public health authorities.

We do know, after checking our web site logs, that the Pan American Health Organization, the WHO Regional Office of the Americas, accessed this specific report in our system on April 10th and again on April 11th.

April 16

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) indicated that an unspecified number of atypical pneumonia cases were detected at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Reforma, Oaxaca State, Mexico. No information was provided about symptoms or treatment for the cases. NSS Oaxaca reported that rumors were circulating that human coronavirus was spreading at the hospital; sources did not provide any response to these statements from the hospital or health officials.

Laboratory samples were sent to Mexico City for analysis; results were expected to be released sometime next week. According to NSS Oaxaca, health officials had intensified preventive measures aimed at mitigating further spread of the disease. Sources reported that the SSO also implemented a sanitary cordon around the hospital.

This information was pushed to CDC in an email alert notification provided by Veratect on April 16 and April 17:

"16 Apr 2009 4:14 PM GMT Respiratory Disease Detailed Mexico (Reforma, Oaxaca) Reforma: Atypical Pneumonia Cases Reported at Hospital", sent at "April 16, 2009 10:08:06 AM PDT" and again at "April 17, 2009 10:08:06 AM PDT" to CDC and at "April 16, 2009 10:27:13 AM PDT" to the California State Department of Health.

April 20

Veratect was urgently asked to provide access to the VeraSight Global platform on 20 April by a client in the US public health community, and indicated they had received word from their counterparts in Canada that Mexican authorities had requested support. This client speculated whether notification of all southern U.S. border states’ public health authorities should be done and were confused as to why the CDC had not issued an advisory. Veratect contacted the CDC Emergency Operations Center to sensitize them about the situation in Mexico. CDC indicated they were already dealing with the crisis of recently detected H1N1 swine influenza in California and possibly Texas.

April 21

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) confirmed two adults died from atypical pneumonia at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico. One of the cases was a 39-year-old female; the other case was an adult male of unspecified age. After the deaths, the hospital established a quarantine in the emergency room due to initial concerns that avian influenza was responsible for the cases. However, the SSO subsequently stated that neither avian influenza nor coronaviruses, including that which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), were the source of infection. Additionally, the SSO denied the cases represented an epidemic. According to local sources, the SSO indicated that the atypical pneumonia cases were caused by an unspecified bacterial pathogen and were treatable with antibiotics. Sources indicated a total of 16 additional patients exhibited signs of respiratory infection; none of these patients exhibited complications.

Veratect sources indicated the 39-year-old female was treated at the hospital for five days before dying on 13 April. This case was reportedly immunocompromised; in addition to acute respiratory symptoms, she also had diabetes and diarrhea. The SSO contacted 300 people that had been in contact with the woman; sources stated that between 33-61 contacts exhibited symptoms of respiratory disease, but none showed severe complications. The SSO characterized the incident as an "isolated case;" they noted that over 5,000 cases of pneumonia occur annually in Oaxaca.

Another local source reported the SSO launched surveillance measures in the former residential areas of the two fatal cases and in other targeted geographic areas. No additional information was provided regarding the second fatal case at the hospital.

Veratect reported that the Oaxaca State Congress Permanent Committee on Health had undertaken an investigation into the cases. The committee inspected the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso on 20 April. The director of the medical school at the University Autónoma "Benito Juárez" de Oaxaca (UABJO), along with other medical academics, publicly requested that national health authorities investigate the cases of atypical pneumonia. No information was provided indicating that national health authorities plan to investigate the matter. The director of the medical school also requested the SSO furnish evidence showing that the cases were negative for avian influenza, SARS, and other severe pathogens; his request was echoed by readers commenting on an online user forum.

Veratect also reported the National Ministry of Health issued a health alert due to a significant increase in influenza cases during the spring season in Mexico. Officials indicated that there have been 14 influenza outbreaks throughout the country. The most heavily affected states are Baja California, Chihuahua, Distrito Federal (Mexico City), Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Veracruz. Local case counts were not provided.

Officials stated that 4,167 probable cases of influenza, 313 of which were confirmed, have been reported throughout the country in 2009. Case counts for suspected and confirmed influenza cases have tripled in 2009 as compared to the equivalent time period in 2008. The National Institute of Respiratory Diseases recorded two fatal cases of influenza in 2009, but specific dates and locations were not provided.

Health officials stated they were unsure precisely why the incidence of influenza had increased. However, they believed the increased presence of influenza B, in combination with influenza A, was a contributing factor. In response, officials advised anyone exhibiting influenza symptoms to avoid self-medication and seek medical care immediately. Officials had also enhanced epidemiological surveillance for influenza. Lastly, health officials had focused efforts on providing antiviral medications and influenza vaccinations to the most vulnerable segments of the population. According to the Mexican Ministry of Health, 44.3% of the national population was vaccinated against influenza in 2005-2006.

Veratect sensitized the International Federation of Red Cross who in turn requested broader access be provided to the Pan-American Disaster Response Unit (PADRU). Veratect moved to notify several US state and local public health authorities, providing the caveat the situation in Mexico remained unclear due to pending laboratory results. Veratect reached out to World Health Organization (WHO) operations, informing them the Veratect team was on an alert posture and available for situational awareness support. They indicated they and their subordinate, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) were now aware of the situation but had no further information. Veratect also extended contact to the British Columbia Center for Disease Control and offered assistance in tracking the events in Mexico. All contacts indicated laboratory results were pending.

April 22

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) indicated 16 employees at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico had contracted respiratory disease. However, the SSO denied these cases were connected to the recently identified cases of atypical pneumonia at the hospital. No information was provided indicating how many employees work at the hospital or whether the number of respiratory disease cases was higher than average. The source reported that "fear" persisted among hospital physicians concerning the possible presence of a deadly bacteria or virus circulating in the hospital. One anonymous hospital employee criticized hospital management as "unfair" for not providing clear information regarding the first fatal atypical pneumonia case.

An additional source reported the cause of the atypical pneumonia cases remained unknown; it stated that bacteria or virus could have caused the cases. In contrast, according to an 18 April report, the SSO indicated that the atypical pneumonia cases were caused by an unspecified bacterial pathogen and were treatable with antibiotics. The reason for this discrepancy was unclear at this time.

The Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), a national health entity, had now joined the SSO in responding to the cases; reports did not indicate the Mexican National Ministry of Health had joined in the response efforts. The IMSS extended the sanitary cordon surrounding the hospital. Patients exhibiting flu-like symptoms would be sent to the hospital’s epidemiology department for further study. IMSS instructed physicians to hospitalize respiratory disease patients immediately if they meet certain standards for severity of symptoms. Lastly, the hospital’s emergency room would remain closed for an additional 15 days so that cleaning and preventive disinfection could be carried out.

Veratect also reported the Mexican Ministry of Health indicated that an "unusual" outbreak of laboratory-confirmed influenza caused five deaths from 17-19 April 2009 in Mexico City, Mexico. The deaths occurred at the following three hospitals: el Hospital de la Secretaría de Salud (2), el Institute Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias (2), and el Hospital Ángeles del Pedregal (1). According to unofficial sources, the fatal case count was higher than that provided by officials. There were currently 120 influenza cases hospitalized throughout Mexico City. National health officials indicated that influenza vaccines were sold out in Mexico City and that they were attempting to acquire additional supplies of the vaccine.

At this point, the Mexican Health Secretary reportedly stated there was an influenza epidemic in Mexico City and throughout the rest of the county. In response to the cases, the official stated health authorities would launch a public awareness and vaccination campaigns. He stated that 400,000 vaccines would be administered, primarily to medical staff; it was unclear whether these efforts would be focused on Mexico City or any other geographic area. Health officials also ordered the provision of special masks, gloves, and gowns for medical personnel that were in contact with influenza cases.

A total of 13 fatal cases of influenza were reported in Mexico City in the past three weeks. However, several other media sources reported that the 13 deaths were recorded since 18 March 2009; the reason for this discrepancy was unclear. Sources reported a total of 20 fatal cases of influenza throughout Mexico over the disputed timeframe. The other cases were located in San Luis Potosí (4), Baja California (2), and Oaxaca (1). The Director of Epidemiology at the National Center for Epidemiological Surveillance and Disease Control characterized the outbreak as "quite unusual."

No information was provided indicating that the strain of influenza itself was unusual. Rather, several sources indicated that it was "unusual" to record this many fatal influenza cases during this time of year. Influenza cases normally peak from October to February, while these cases had occurred during Mexico’s spring season.

Canada announced a national alert for travelers returning from Mexico with respiratory disease, beginning a campaign of public media announcements. Potentially ill contacts were identified returning from Mexico and isolated in Canada. Internet blogs begin to spin up. CDC indicates concern about the events unfolding in Mexico. Veratect sensitizes the US community physician social network managed by Ozmosis.

April 23

Veratect reported the Secretary General of the Oaxaca Ministry of Health Workers Union confirmed that a doctor and a nurse from the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico were under observation for suspected "atypical" pneumonia. This contradicted statements made by the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) on 22 April that 16 hospital employees contracted respiratory disease, but none of the cases exhibited atypical pneumonia.

The union official stated that a review by the Oaxaca State Board of Medical Arbitration indicated that the hospital faced serious difficulties caused by overcrowding; he stated that overcrowded conditions created a "breeding ground" for the spread of various epidemics. According to the official, the hospital has 120 beds but the number of patients hospitalized had at times surpassed 240.

Other sources reported that the Department of Livestock, Fisheries, Rural Development, and Feed (SAGARPA) declared on 20 April that Oaxaca, Mexico was free of avian influenza. SAGARPA stated that authorities should remain vigilant in monitoring for the disease among birds.

Canadian local health officials stated that a Rouge Valley resident with influenza-like illness was being monitored at Scarborough Centenary Hospital in Scarborough, Ontario. The precaution was being taken in accordance with an alert issued by the Ministry of Health asking hospitals to watch for severe respiratory illnesses in travelers returning from Mexico. Despite the warning, the Ministry had indicated that evidence is not suggestive of a novel pathogen or influenza strain, according to the source. A representative for the Rouge Valley Health System stated that this case is being monitored related to the alert. The source did not specifically indicate symptoms or that the person had traveled to Mexico. No additional information regarding the case, including age or health status, was reported.

The source stated that hospital employees were asking any patients admitted to the hospital if they had recently traveled to Mexico, which according to the source was a popular tourist destination for Durham-region residents.

Additional Canadian sources indicated Southlake Regional Health Centre officials treated a patient with influenza-like illness (ILI) who recently returned from Mexico. The Ministry of Health recently notified Southlake, in addition to health units across the country, that an outbreak of severe respiratory disease was affecting areas of Mexico; ill travelers returning from that region with ILI symptoms were encouraged to be monitored. Sources did not provide any specific information about the case, including age or current treatment status. Information regarding the individual’s travel to Mexico was also not provided, including destinations and duration of time in country.

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) noted that an Ontario resident who returned from Mexico on 22 March experienced severe respiratory illness, but has fully recovered and was not considered connected to the current situation. Veratect recently reported on 30 March that a public official from Cornwall, Ontario was hospitalized with an unknown illness following a trip to Mexico; however, it is unclear if the cases are related, or if this was the case referenced by PHAC officials.

Veratect assesses the situation and notes the following:

Affected areas:

Oaxaca, Distrito Federal, San Luis Potosí, Baja California

Distance to nearest international airport:

• Oaxaca airport, located approximately 150 miles from Reforma, is connected via non-stop air traffic to Houston
• Mexico City (Distrito Federal) airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to many cities in the US, Canada, Europe and Latin America, with the most outbound traffic to Los Angeles, Frankfurt, Houston, Dallas, and Amsterdam
• San Luis Potosí airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to Dallas and Houston
• Mexicali airport in Baja California is connected via non-stop traffic to Los Angeles
• Veracruz airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to Houston

Large mass gatherings:

Semana Santa (April ~April 3 – 12, Palm Sunday to Easter Sunday), which is Mexico’s second largest holiday. Mexico’s population is approximately 90% Catholic, which results in substantial population migration patterns during this time period. For instance, in Ixtapalapa (in Mexico City), one million people visit for Semana Santa. Other well-known sites for the holiday include Pátzcuaro, San Cristobal de las Casas (Chiapas), and Taxco. Veratect notes substantial population migration has just occurred that could facilitate the spread of respiratory disease.

Civil Unrest:

The recent surge in organized crime and drug-related violence in Mexico, including homicides, kidnappings, extortion, and theft, has disproportionately impacted Mexican states along the Pacific Coast and U.S.-Mexico border. This factor may confound situational awareness of respiratory disease in Mexico and contribute to problems in epidemiological investigation and response measures. Baja California is one of five states within this region that currently accounts for more than 75 percent of Mexico's drug-related homicides, and has recorded high levels of drug seizures and police corruption cases. Veracruz, a state with high drug cartel activity in the Gulf of Mexico, has recorded little violence, while the state of Oaxaca to the southwest, recently recorded the assassination of a political party leader. Mexico City, in the center of the country, recently arrested a major drug cartel leader, and recorded few homicides this month. The levels of unrest in Hidalgo, San Luis Potosi, and Tlaxcala, however, are very low, and have not reported a single homicide related to organized crime in the past month.


Veratect issues notification to additional public health authorities in two states. Veratect reaches out to the Pan American Health Organization emergency operations team but is unable to establish contact. Veratect notes no publicly available English language reporting from ProMED, HealthMap, FluNET, CDC, ECDC, or WHO about the unfolding events in Mexico. Many of Veratect’s clients, including Canadian, ask why an alert has not been issued by the US to sensitize their healthcare community.

April 24

Veratect continues to process a dramatic increase in reporting on the situation in Mexico.

WHO requests access to the Veratect system. Veratect is aware of laboratory samples from Mexico are positive for “swine flu” H1N1, a novel virus. World media are now aware of the situation in Mexico. CDC issues a press statement, as does WHO.

Veratect notifies the private US clinical laboratory community and activates a Twitter feed (twitter.com/veratect) to enable more rapid updating of information.









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Have Mexican authorities issued a formal communication stating:
1. the number of confirmed cases and their location ?
2. number of deaths confirmed to have resulted from H1N1 ?
3. Dates of all of the above ?
4. Number of suspected cases and of suspected deaths related to the disease ?


Posted by: Alin | April 24, 2009 at 11:09 PM

They say there could be 70 related cases, and 20 confirmed deaths because of H1N1

Posted by: Eduardo | April 25, 2009 at 12:38 AM

Thank you for this timeline. I have been looking for one since yesterday. Have you heard anything about the 75 cases in Queens NY ?

Posted by: Maia | April 25, 2009 at 05:24 AM

Sounds like if the epi intel was interpreted more carefully in Mexico, many deaths may have been averted. The CDC seems to have been more pro-active in the US, but in view of the situation in Mexico, we may have several silent infections or undiagnosed cases right now. What is your opinion about what would need to be done to contain the spread?

Posted by: Maia | April 25, 2009 at 05:32 AM

Fascinating time line, Jim. I posted a link on the "green bar" at TrackerNews.net Also "tweeted" a direct link. It is stunning to see that as early as April 6, a pig operation was suspected, at least by locals.

Posted by: J A Ginsburg | April 25, 2009 at 09:41 AM

Hi everyone,

Yes, we are aware of the updates you've mentioned and have posted them in real time on our Twitter:
twitter.com/veratect

Hi Janet,
Yes, we were the first in the world to report this, despite claims to the contrary by CNN and Fox News.

Posted by: Jim | April 25, 2009 at 10:37 AM

Thank you for the time-line of events. It has been quite helpful & I will share with colleagues.
Susan Tydings Frushour
Emergency Manager
Commonwealth of Virginia-Ret
Red Cross DSHR & DAT
EMT-B Waynesboro Rescue Squad

Posted by: Susan Tydings Frushour | April 25, 2009 at 01:29 PM

No problem Susan. Glad to be of help.

Posted by: Jim | April 25, 2009 at 03:09 PM

hey dude thanks for the info....
as u can see it's kind of difficult to find this information as descriptive as you made

cheers from mexico

Posted by: Francisco | April 25, 2009 at 04:09 PM

Thanks for the time-line. I hope this doesn't escalate too far.

Posted by: Austin personal trainer | April 25, 2009 at 05:32 PM

Boy I couldn't agree with you more... but follow twitter.com/veratect
you'll see we are far from over on this one...

Posted by: Jim | April 25, 2009 at 05:43 PM

this getting worse....schools have been close until may 6....from kinder to university public and private....by te way it's been reported 1300 case and 80 deaths

Posted by: Francisco | April 25, 2009 at 07:46 PM

Thanks Francisco. Everyone up here is praying for you all in Mexico. Our hearts are with you.

Posted by: Jim | April 25, 2009 at 09:59 PM

Avian flu in the state of Veracruz?
http://www.elgolfo.info/web/lo-mas-nuev ... emia-.html
Agregó que también tiene conocimiento que en las Granjas de Bachoco, ubicadas cerca de Xalapa hay gripa aviar, situación que –dijo-, no se ha dado a conocer por la exportación que se tiene de las aves, “pero antes que eso primero está la salud del ser humano, situación de la que se enteró por los veterinarios que atienden los animales.

Posted by: Gerardo Horvilleur | April 25, 2009 at 10:03 PM

In many Mexican newspapers blogs and from several people I know in Mexico there are versions of the death toll being much higher than what they are oficially informing.Could this be true?

Posted by: Guille | April 25, 2009 at 11:24 PM

this is definitely scary stuff, sounds a lot more serious than the peanut butter salmonella scares at the very least

Posted by: Nomad | April 25, 2009 at 11:26 PM

http://interactivo.eluniversal.com.mx/c ... =22#140702
Scary indeed

Posted by: Guille | April 25, 2009 at 11:53 PM

There are now ten cases of this in New Zealand...all high school students who have been to Mexico and arrived back recently. See tv3.co.nz.

Posted by: B. | April 26, 2009 at 04:23 AM

Are they testing for barium poisoning. Barium can be inhaled and ingested with the source being the chemtrails disbursed by planes and ending up in water supply and in the air. Barium poisoning displays the exact same symptoms as flu but can be deadly. It would also elevated the blood pressure, possibly resulting in an increase in heart attacks in those same areas. People in the medical field need to pass this around as a possibility to rule out. Barium poisoning is treated with Potassium which helps break it down when ingested. If it's inhaled, I would imagine that the potential for cancer could be high, although there's no KNOWN tie to cancer. This stuff is very toxic and sprayed in those chemtrails. Why? Your guess is as good as mine.

Posted by: jt | April 26, 2009 at 06:14 AM

Xrays will not show the barium as it has very poor contrast without additives. http://www.springerlink.com/content/w327240746303007/

Posted by: jt | April 26, 2009 at 06:38 AM

There were also some suspect cases of the h1n1 flu at the IMSS hospital in Guadalajara last month but the actual cause of death was not revealed all the news media said was an unidentified virus, so now it makes you wonder how far the virus has gone or will spread.

Posted by: Jeff Patterson | April 26, 2009 at 08:45 AM

Some sources talk about many many more deaths in Mexico...could someone confirm it?

Posted by: Guille | April 26, 2009 at 10:42 AM

Hi, I´m from Mexico. Do any of you has a theory Why mexican population has a worse prognosis, in deed fatalities, that population in US or Canada? Do you consider we are missing something like coinfection with coronavirus or bacterias? How was the management of the patients in US and Canada?

Posted by: José Manuel | April 26, 2009 at 07:42 PM

Hi Jose,
My personal opinion is what we may be seeing is the mortality bias effect, where people tend to report very serious illness and death before reporting mild illness. So, it may mean there are many more cases in Mexico that we are truly aware of if we assume the case fatality rate is very low.

Posted by: Jim | April 26, 2009 at 09:16 PM

Hey! I, like many others, think a lot more people have died than the government wants us to know.

Posted by: P3epe | April 27, 2009 at 06:25 AM
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Postby Percival » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:09 pm

Not an AJ fan but this highlighted comment is interesting:

Texas Doctor Claims Swine Flu Cases Far Worse Than Reported



Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Thursday, April 30, 2009

Dr. Marcus Gitterle, an emergency medicine physician based out of New Braunfels, Texas, sent out an internal alert which contains several stunning claims about swine flu that, if true, officials have presumably sought to keep from the public.

Dr. Marcus Gitterle, an emergency medicine physician based out of New Braunfels, Texas, sent out an e mail alert to his patients which contains several stunning claims about swine flu that, if true, officials have presumably sought to keep from the public.
“After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County and Hays County, (name removed) suggested I send an update to my patients in the area, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is different from what you are hearing in the media,” writes Gitterle.
The doctor claims that the actual number of confirmed cases of swine flu is 10 to 25 times worse than has been reported, and that people are not recovering easily, as has been claimed, but that many Americans are in fact seriously ill.
“The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each “confirmed” case right now,” claims Gitterle.

“This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old in Houston is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life,” he writes.
Gitterle’s mention of a “23 month old in Houston” obviously refers to the Mexican toddler who died on Monday night and was announced as the first U.S. fatality on Tuesday morning.
Quick access to drugs like Tamiflu and Relenza, as well as ventilators, is preventing fatalities on the scale of Mexico, but Gitterle warns that “within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed”.
Gitterle warns, “ER’s south of here are becoming overwhelmed — and I mean that — already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.”

The doctor states that the severity of the situation has already crossed the threshold of the definition of a WHO phase 6 pandemic. “This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory,” he writes.
Gitterle claims that President Obama is being advised to declare a national emergency and that this could happen within the next 48 hours.
“This may not happen, but if it doesn’t, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days minimum,” writes the doctor.
Gitterle advises people to avoid all public gatherings, especially those held indoors, to avoid going to their ER if they feel ill, and to take the nutritional supplements N-Acetyl-Cysteine and Oscillococinum. He recommends Relenza as a more powerful drug than Tamiflu but warns that supplies of both drugs are running out fast.
The doctor states that swine flu is infectious for about two days prior to symptom onset and that the virus can spread for more than seven days after symptom onset. The symptoms are the same as normal flu, although it has been discovered that swine flu causes a distinctive “hoarseness” in many victims.
“Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no “herd immunity,” so the “attack rate” is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatic. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The “clinical attack rate” estimation from CDC and WHO may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this to those outside of the medical fields,” he writes.
http://www.infowars.com/texas-doctor...than-reported/
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Postby Avalon » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:20 pm

The map, from a social disruption perspective, is normally yellow

http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/bios ... cific.html

The biosurveillance map and explanatory text are not sourced, and comments are disabled, at least to passers-by. There is no key to the colors used, the assumption presumably that red is worse than orange.
As currently seen on the image, yellow is country borders, and the base color ranges of brown and tan.

I'm assuming that the yellow being discussed would be a uniform yellow background, indicating a midrange in the often-used threat level sequence.

It may seem like quibbling, but I'm more comfortable with analysis that actually is congruent with the visuals.

Came down from my mountains yesterday with younger child, and got to ride the New York subways for the first time in a while. Child flitting between poles of "How close is where we are going in Brooklyn to Queens? Are we going to die" and "I am a teenager, nothing can hurt me, other than dying from embarassment if I look like I am not a cool sophisticate."

I patiently go over my own protocols. Left hand holds onto subway pole if needed, right stays "clean." Use elbow, shoulder to push instead of hands, use back of knuckles to touch buttons, touchscreens etc rather than fingertips.
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Postby sunny » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:41 pm

This all seems so orchestrated, but I have to admit it has me nervous. Even if the "pandemic" is hyped they are up to something.
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:54 pm

Iowa State research also shows that pigs undergoing active infection with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome or porcine circovirus at the time of SIV vaccination may have a compromised ability to respond properly to the vaccine


Remember how the Smithfield facility in Veracruz stressed that it's animals get vaccinated?




http://tinyurl.com/ct5bew

SIV Gets More Complicated (Herd Health)
By Pork staff | Sunday, July 25, 2004




Swine influenza virus used to be a seasonal problem as pigs would get sick in the fall and winter and then get over it. Today’s mix of SIV strains has turned swine flu into a year-round problem for pork producers.

Kurt Rossow, Veterinary Diagnostic Medicine, University of Minnesota, says that SIV cases seen in the past 6 months have shown “different H1N1 viruses and changes in H3N2 viruses as well. While it’s still out there and needs to be considered, the classic H1N1 is no longer the predominant SIV type.”

Similar patterns surfaced in Iowa. “The SIV samples that we’ve looked at from 2002 and 2003, nearly all appear to be the new reassortant H1N1 rather than classic H1N1,” notes Bruce Janke, Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, Iowa State University.

According to Marie Gramer, Veterinary Diagnostic Medicine, University of Minnesota, the new reassortant H1N1 strains are adding to the confusion about SIV and contributing to problems surrounding its control.

Multiple strains active in a herd on a nearly continual basis make SIV testing more complicated,” says Gramer. “It’s difficult to identify strains definitively using only the basic testing procedures.”

It’s possible for one herd to carry multiple SIV strains including H1N1, rH1N1, H1N2 and H3N2, stresses Gramer. To identify multiple strains in a herd the diagnostic lab must do genetic sequencing of the virus in addition to performing serotyping.

“Today, SIV is a moving target,” says Gene Erickson, Rollins Laboratory, Raleigh, N.C., “with the emergence of H3N2, it has become clear that the virus has a broad ability to reassort with other strains of virus co-circulating in the herd, at the same time allowing it to create a new virus.

“We’re seeing documented cases in well-vaccinated pigs where the SIV vaccine hasn’t offered adequate protection,” acknowledges Gramer. “The vaccine didn’t necessarily fail, it just didn’t cover new strains circulating within the herd.”

Iowa State research also shows that pigs undergoing active infection with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome or porcine circovirus at the time of SIV vaccination may have a compromised ability to respond properly to the vaccine.

Many herds rely on pre-farrowing SIV vaccination programs to protect pigs through late nursery or early finishing stages, but then neglect to fully immunize incoming gilts.

“Replacement females need to be brought up to a similar immune status as the sows. Otherwise, the differing immune levels in sows and offspring will encourage the virus to maintain or even amplify itself, in the herd,” stresses Erickson.

An Evolutionary Virus

Since 1998, SIV has moved from a single, stable virus to a virus with the ability to reconfigure itself to the point where it may avoid control by existing vaccines.

The new H1N1 strain emerged from a process called genetic reassortment, which occurs when a single cell is infected by two different influenza viruses,
” explains Robyn Fleck, a technical service veterinarian at Schering-Plough Animal Health. “The result is a ‘progeny virus’ containing genetic material from both ‘parents’.”

“In other words,” she adds, “the outside of reassortment H1N1 looks like a classical H1N1, but its internal genes are derived from H3N2. Reassortant H1N1 also acts differently from the old classical H1N1. It picks up mutations at an increased rate, thereby evading the pig’s immune system.”

According to Bruce Janke, Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, Iowa State University, the positive identification of H3N2 in 1998 made SIV “a two-strain disease in many Midwest herds within 6 months, thus setting the stage for further variations.”


Edit to add from an article previously posted which mentioned the Smithfield facility in Veracruz:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/ap ... eak-source

"....Based on available recent information, Smithfield has no reason to believe that the virus is in any way connected to its operations in Mexico," it said in a statement. "The company also noted that its joint ventures in Mexico routinely administer influenza virus vaccination to their swine herds and conduct monthly tests for the presence of swine influenza......"
Last edited by chiggerbit on Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby ninakat » Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:08 pm

sunny wrote:This all seems so orchestrated, but I have to admit it has me nervous. Even if the "pandemic" is hyped they are up to something.


Agreed. But what it is ain't exactly clear. Hindsight will probably provide more clues.... was it (a) a distraction; (b) a distraction; or (c) a distraction?
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Postby ninakat » Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:15 pm

Then, of course, there's always (d):

Swine Flu?

A Panic Stoked in Order to Posture and Spend:

Despite the hysteria, the risk to Britons' health is tiny - but that news won't sell papers or drugs, or justify the WHO's budget

By Simon Jenkins

April 30, 2009 "The Guardian" -- -We have gone demented. Two Britons are or were (not very) ill from flu. "This could really explode," intones a reporter for BBC News. "London warned: it's here," cries the Evening Standard. Fear is said to be spreading "like a Mexican wave". It "could affect" three-quarters of a million Britons. It "could cost" three trillion dollars. The "danger", according to the radio, is that workers who are not ill will be "worried" (perhaps by the reporter) and fail to turn up at power stations and hospitals.

Appropriately panicked, on Monday ministers plunged into their Cobra bunker beneath Whitehall to prepare for the worst. Had Tony Blair been about they would have worn germ warfare suits. British government is barking mad.

What is swine flu? It is flu, a mutation of the H1N1 virus of the sort that often occurs. It is not a pandemic, despite the media prefix, not yet. The BBC calls it a "potentially terrible virus", but any viral infection is potentially terrible. Flu makes you feel ill. You should take medicine and rest. You will then get well again, unless you are very unlucky or have some complicating condition. It is best to avoid close contact with other people, as applies to a common cold.

In Mexico, 2,000 people have been diagnosed as suffering swine flu. Some 150 of them have died, though there is said to be no pathological indication of all these deaths being linked to the new flu strain. People die all the time after catching flu, especially if not medicated.

Nobody anywhere else in the world has died from this infection and only a handful have the new strain confirmed, most in America and almost all after returning from Mexico. A couple from Airdrie who caught the flu on holiday in Cancun are getting better. That tends to happen to people who get flu, however much it may disappoint editors.

We appear to have lost all ability to judge risk. The cause may lie in the national curriculum, the decline of "news" or the rise of blogs and concomitant, unmediated hysteria, but people seem helpless in navigating the gulf that separates public information from their daily round. They cannot set a statistic in context. They cannot relate bad news from Mexico to the risk that inevitably surrounds their lives. The risk of catching swine flu must be millions to one.

Health scares are like terrorist ones. Someone somewhere has an interest in it. We depend on others with specialist knowledge to advise and warn us and assume they offer advice on a dispassionate basis, using their expertise to assess danger and communicating it in measured English. Words such as possibly, potentially, could or might should be avoided. They are unspecific qualifiers and open to exaggeration.

The World Health Organisation, always eager to push itself into the spotlight, loves to talk of the world being "ready" for a flu pandemic, apparently on the grounds that none has occurred for some time. There is no obvious justification for this scaremongering. I suppose the world is "ready" for another atomic explosion or another 9/11.

Professional expertise is now overwhelmed by professional log-rolling. Risk aversion has trounced risk judgment. An obligation on public officials not to scare people or lead them to needless expense is overridden by the yearning for a higher budget or more profit. Health scares enable media-hungry doctors, public health officials and drugs companies to benefit by manipulating fright.

On Monday the EU health commissioner, Androulla Vassiliou, advised travellers not to go to north or central America "unless it's very urgent". The British Foreign Office warned against "all but essential" travel to Mexico because of the danger of catching flu. This was outrageous. It would make more sense to proffer such a warning against the American crime rate. Yet such health-and-safety hysteria wiped millions from travel company shares.

During the BSE scare of 1995-7, grown men with medical degrees predicted doom, terrifying ministers into mad politician disease. The scientists' hysteria, that BSE "has the potential to infect up to 10 million Britons", led to tens of thousands of cattle being fed into power stations and £5bn spent on farmers' compensation. A year later, the scientists tried to maintain that BSE "might" spread to sheep because, according to one government scientist, "the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence". The meat industry was wrecked and an absurd ongoing cost was imposed on stock farmers with the closure and concentration of abattoirs.

This science-based insanity was repeated during the Sars outbreak of 2003, asserted by Dr Patrick Dixon, formerly of the London Business School, to have "a 25% chance of killing tens of millions". The press duly headlined a plague "worse than Aids". Not one Briton died.

The same lunacy occurred in 2006 with avian flu, erupting after a scientist named John Oxford declared that "it will be the first pandemic of the 21st century". The WHO issued a statement that "one in four Britons could die".

Epidemiologists love the word "could" because it can always assure them of a headline. During the avian flu mania, Canada geese were treated like Goering's bombers. RSPB workers were issued with protective headgear.The media went berserk, with interviewers asking why the government did not close all schools "to prevent up to 50,000 deaths". The Today programme's John Humphrys became frantic when a dead goose flopped down on an isolated Scottish beach and a hapless local official refused to confirm the BBC's hysteria. The bird might pose no threat to Scotland, but how dare he deny London journalists a good panic?

Meanwhile a real pestilence, MRSA and C difficile, was taking hold in hospitals. It was suppressed by the medical profession because it appeared that they themselves might be to blame. These diseases have played a role in thousands of deaths in British hospitals - the former a reported 1,652 and the latter 8,324 in 2007 alone. Like deaths from alcoholism, we have come to regard hospital-induced infection as an accident of life, a hazard to which we have subconsciously adjusted.

MRSA and C difficile are not like swine flu, an opportunity for public figures to scare and posture and spend money. They are diseases for which the government is to blame. They claim no headlines and no Cobra priority. Their sufferers must crawl away and die in silence.

simon.jenkins@guardian.co.uk

link
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Postby ninakat » Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:21 pm

Meanwhile, back in the real world:

Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild
Genetic data indicate this outbreak won't be as deadly as that of 1918, or even the average winter.

By Karen Kaplan and Alan Zarembo
April 30, 2009

As the World Health Organization raised its infectious disease alert level Wednesday and health officials confirmed the first death linked to swine flu inside U.S. borders, scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza -- at least in its current form -- isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics.

In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.

continues
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:26 pm

The only way that I could see that this is a part of some big conspircay is if the conspiracists are deliberately trying to kick the last legs out from under a struggling economy. While it may be good for the medical and pharmaceutical industires, it is a disaster for most of the rest.
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Postby pepsified thinker » Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:30 pm

About that Dr. Gitterle

http://www.cardiosecret.com/

"I so believe in my New Ideal Cardio FormulaTM that I'll make this guarantee: Visit your doctor and have a complete set of cardiovascular labs done. Then, take the new Ideal Cardio Formula with the secret ingredient every day for 30 days and have your blood work checked again. If you and your doctor are not satisfied with the changes in your key parameters of cardiovascular function, we will refund your money."

– Dr. Marcus L. Gitterle, M.D.



---not exactly a sober-sounding, staid grey-haired Marcus Welby-type.
I don't want to be judgemental, but a guy with something to sell on the internet at 39.99 a bottle and long testimonials and so on--infomercial site, and all--doesn't have as much credibility as one could hope for.
"we must cultivate our garden"
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