Canada election watch

[Jeff]

On the other hand: they're scared and desperate.

Doesn't make them less dangerous of course. But it does give me a measure of satisfaction to know that.

[Jeff]

Addressing the crowd outside my candidate's office last night.

[Canadian_watcher]

I heart Jack Layton.

Just voted!!

I's going to be a long day.....

[Canadian_watcher]

odd little story:

I was just out at a shop and struck up a conversation with an older gentleman. I asked if he had voted and he said, "I sure did!" Then he came in closer and told me: "The girl.. she asked for my ID and took it and then said, 'Stephen Harper.'"
He was ticked.. mentioned that that is illegal.
I don't like stories like that.

[Project Willow]

I have election envy.

And that NDP jingo is constantly replaying itself in my head. Thanks Jeff!

Anyway, it's exciting.

[JackRiddler]

.

For kicks I started a Canada Election Watch thread at DU...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/di ... 39x1012762

After posting some material on the NDP, taken from Jeff here, yesterday.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/di ... 39x1000437

I've learned that in Canada 1) you can register to vote when you visit the polls on election day and 2) employers are legally bound to give you three consecutive hours off to vote. Of course I already knew that 3) it's all hand-counted paper ballots. I also learned that bloggers who reveal results ahead of the polls' close will be fined $25,000!

.

[hava1]

When do you get your official media prediction ?

[Perelandra]

I have election envy.

Me too. I did not know the facts Jack posted.

Wishing all the good Canadian folk the best possible luck.

[Jeff]

When do you get your official media prediction ?

Usually later rather than sooner unless it's a blowout, and there hasn't been one looking this close in decades. I expect first to hear the call that it will be a minority government, but that they can't yet say whose it will be.

National coverage begins at 9 Eastern.

[hava1]

If I calculate correct, then your coverage will begin 3 am our time, which means I will see the news tomorrow morning. What happens if in theory you get 2 of them or all 3 eqal votes, who gets to lead, if there is no coalition ? or can 2 parties decide to bloc a third, ? or is it decided by even a victory of 10 votes ?
last, how are your voting machines ??????not made in Florida I hope...

[Feilan]

If I calculate correct, then your coverage will begin 3 am our time, which means I will see the news tomorrow morning. What happens if in theory you get 2 of them or all 3 eqal votes, who gets to lead, if there is no coalition ? or can 2 parties decide to bloc a third, ? or is it decided by even a victory of 10 votes ?
last, how are your voting machines ??????not made in Florida I hope...

Our voting 'machines' consist of whatever bodily appendage/orifice will enable us to hold a pencil and mark a spot with an X.

2 or 3 parties with a perfectly equal distribution of controlling weight in the house is as likely as ... um ... as likely as that completely redonkulous national security massage we all are getting is straight up, but thought experiments are one of those really good things in life that happen to be free, sooooooooo imagining that the prime sinister's network of evil garners just as many as Uncle Jack and his band of merry, merry, it would indeed be up to those parties holding the rest of the vote to take sides. Coalition, but of course.

Harper's unabashed shitkicking of the very democratic tendancy toward coalition governance in our system is symptomatic of his most antidemocratic core. This sport has more recently been enjoined by the IGGsome one as well who never imagined he'd be such a big fat loser in this current round of musical chairs. Thank God life is still good for a surprise now and again - that's what I say.

*Due to Section 329 of Canada Elections Act, a blackout is in effect from 6:30 to 7 p.m. local time in British Columbia and Yukon.

http://www.cbc.ca/m/rich/canada/toronto/story/2011/04/29/cv-election-coverage-schedule.html

This was shrieking to be crossposted:



Since the minor league fascists we've let fester up here (including IGGsome-apologist-for-torture-natieff in that sweeping hyperbole) are more broadly thought to be the "sensible" lot (perish the spleen-shattering thought) - that leaves our Layton and his 'better late than ne'ers' to bear forth under the SILLY banner.

I'm voting for the Silly Party !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Who's with me??? ?

[hava1]

Feilan, pencil is good enough. (although in small ballots, the gang can throw out the "bad" votes", this is what happens here usually, coz we are also manual).

So, if I understand you correctly, even a 10 votes edge will decide who leads...that could be nerve wrenching...we had the same here, eventually , though, the party that led by a small edge, stayed out, because of...the coalition...

[Feilan]

Dear Hava, I quite agree , pencil is - supersweet. Sublime, even.

In the interests of ever greater clarity, permit me to expand my answer somewhat re:11th hour nailbiting ...(forgive me if this is all or mostly already familiar to you as I understand the Knesset system is not dissimilar regarding the mechanics of seat distribution...) - ahem:

There are five parties worth tracking in this horse race - NDP, Conservative, Liberal, Bloc and Green. Of those, the Green has certainly earned it's fair share of merit badges, but it is only the other four that rise to the surface in such numbers as may determine the nation's fate.

There are 308 seats up for grabs when the music stops. We can give the Greens 1 of them for the sake of argument which leaves us with 307. In order to claim a majority, one party must occupy a total of at least 155 seats - meaning all other parties combining their will could not defeat the government on the floor of the house. This is also known as 'the divine right of kings' ...

Any party across the floor from the governing party can introduce a motion of no-confidence, which, if it has 50%+1 support of voting members, dissolves parliament, triggering an election. Conversely, a minority government need only count on as many loose seats as give them the 50%+1 to hold them up.

Practically speaking, this math works just as well when going through the formal dance moves of 'forming the government' ... The first party past the post is called on by the Governor General to form a government and is considered first past the post with as little as 1 measely seat more than any other contender. It's easy to see how, given a radically different distribution of seats than we are used to in Canada, a minority could be held by considerably fewer members than is usually the case here. It just so happens that our house has been eternally dominated by one or the other or both of the allegedly "sensible" parties. This is also the conundrum that leads many of the more circumspect among us to conclude that we really ought to abandon this first past the post SHIT. It leads to wildly unrepresentative results.

In a minority situation (fewer than 50%+1 out of 308), the governing party will always be dependent to a greater or lesser extant on the favour of some portion of the remainder of the house whenever budgets and/or no-confidence motions are at issue. When a minority government fails to maintain the support of a majority of the house it is alternatively possible for a formal coalition agreement to be struck between two or more parties who then present it to the Governor General and request that he/she grant them the opportunity to form a government. This is the thing that IGGY swears he would never invite Uncle Jack to do. This is the thing that prime sinister Harper says will cause cancer and and boils, not to mention rain doom and blight down upon us all and whatnot. God bloody forbid any self proclaimed servants of democracy and the people's will and welfare ought to pledge to cooperate or anything. That would be unthinkable.

When Harper and his scabby minions were found in contempt by the speaker of the house, and parliament was dissolved, they set out on the campaign trail with 143 incumbents. He will most certainly come away with fewer than that many when the last ballot is counted. The burning question is HOW MANY fewer - and who will profit from his loss???

[hava1]

wow, that was a very good explanation,thanks ! I guess the notion of "minority gov" is hard for me to grasp, but now I understand. Most likely its going to be a minority gov now, but the qustion is who gets more votes, and also, whether the 2 other parties dont form some 'bloc" or for once form a coalition. fascinating and I am sure that can be annoying to wait for the results. You can try tarot, for relaxation. Place 1 card for each party, see what you get ))))))

Its quite similar to the Knesset, except, as I said, we always have a coalition gov, even if one party gets more then 50 percent. Usually the ruling party wants to cover corners ahead. and there are some traditional affiliations, but we have many many more parties and pieces in the puzzle. (which, I have to say, have recently all become identical, so I dont see why they need all those separate parties, except in terms of "clubs" and mafia clans to divide the loot respectively.).

[Jeff]

There's much useless presumption among pundits that the Liberals would junior-partner with the NDP if the numbers are there to take down the Conservatives. I dunno 'bout dat. Much depends upon what remains of the Liberal caucus. Many members by ideology and class would be a better fit with the Conservatives. (A Liberal elected in 2006 to "stop Harper" immediately joined the Conservative cabinet.) Canadian federal politics could be realigning to resemble those of BC, where Conservatives and Liberals tactically merge in order to stop the NDP.

One thing I quite like about our system is the serious regulating of political contributions and the financing of campaigns. The Conservatives were charged with electoral fraud by overspending the 2006 cap of $18.3 million. (Yes, that's the maximum for a national party.) That crime contributed to the Contempt of Parliament finding which triggered this election. The maximum an individual can contribute annually is a couple of thousand bucks. Corporations and unions cannot directly finance parties. And parties receive public financing of about $2 per vote annually based on their support received in the last election.

And yeah, Harper tried to abolish it. And will again given the chance.

And hey - what?

From Canadian Sports Broadcaster TSN:

As you make your way to the polling stations this afternoon, tune into TSN 1050 Radio at 5:00pm et as Prime Minister Stephen Harper joins Cybulski and Company.

The Conservative leader will sit down with James Cybulski to discuss sports and politics, following Sunday's news of Osama Bin Laden's death and it's crossover into the world of sports.

Christ, what a country.