Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

[chiggerbit]

Aha, now I get it--it's a vegetarian conspiracy. Those damned vegetarians have deliberately given us mad cow, then avian (chicken and turkey) flu, and now pork flu. It IS a conspiracy. Annie, what do you have to say for yourself, you shameless woman?

[Percival]

Meanwhile, back in the real world:

Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild
Genetic data indicate this outbreak won't be as deadly as that of 1918, or even the average winter.

By Karen Kaplan and Alan Zarembo
April 30, 2009

As the World Health Organization raised its infectious disease alert level Wednesday and health officials confirmed the first death linked to swine flu inside U.S. borders, scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza -- at least in its current form -- isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics.

In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.

continues

Yes it is another fucking distraction. It is ridiculous, really.

[pepsified thinker]

I honestly don't know what to think, so in devil's advocate-mode, I ask:

Why is Mexico destroying it's economy if there's not mortality?

I'm trying to talk myself out of a creeping sense of fear, but the BBC site with emailed posts and comments, many supposedly from Mexico, about more deaths than have been publicly/officially acknowledged, taken with the actions of the Mexican govt. (and of the U.S. and other govt.s), which seem unprecedented except when compared to the 1918 flu, all of it adds up--well, the occam's razor explanation for me is, this is real. And it's really bad.

Or--those calling the shots think it's really bad.

Now, I'd be grateful for arguments/comments that show similar quasi-hysterical, extreme steps having been taken for no particular reason.

[Pele'sDaughter]

You don't think those friggin investors who're losing on everything else don't want to load up on pharma stock and run with it? WHO doesn't need to continually justify its existence with health emergencies? All govts don't need a distraction right now? I don't know what to think.

[pepsified thinker]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/30/obama-security-member-has_n_193832.html

WASHINGTON — A security aide helping with arrangements during President Barack Obama's recent trip to Mexico became sick with flu-like symptoms and three members of his family later contracted probable swine flu, the White House said Thursday.

The disclosure from press secretary Robert Gibbs comes days after the White House played down risks to the U.S. delegation on the two-day trip that started April 16. Gibbs remained steadfast that the president was never at risk of contracting the flu, which has quickly spread across the globe.

The employee, who was not named by the White House, is an aide to Energy Secretary Steven Chu and helped plan the Mexico trip.

"This individual never flew on Air Force One," Gibbs said. "He was asked specifically if he ever came within 6 feet of the president and the answer to that was no."

The aide arrived in Mexico on April 13, Gibbs said, and became ill on April 16. He developed a fever on April 17, the day Obama left Mexico for the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago. The person in question flew back commercially to Dulles on a United flight on April 18; Gibbs had no details yet on whether people on that flight have been notified.

"Obviously we'll do everything in our power to ensure that what can be done to alert them will be done," he said.

The man visited his brother on April 19 and his nephew became ill. In the next two days, the aide's wife and son also became ill, Gibbs said.

Gibbs said the three members of the aide's family are being tested to see if they had the same strain of swine flu that is threatening to become a pandemic. They have since recovered.

Gibbs said the aide is listed as suspected as having had the virus, but that the virus has run its course and the employee is back at work.

The aide worked on Chu's security detail and went ahead to prepare for the trip. He attended a dinner with Obama on April 16 but Gibbs said the aide never was close enough to Obama to put the president at risk.

Obama has had no symptoms of the virus and doctors see no need to conduct any tests on his health, Gibbs said.

He also said the energy secretary hasn't experienced any symptoms.

Asked about others involved in the U.S. delegation to Mexico City, Gibbs said no one else has gotten sick.

[Hilda Martinez]

A photo for the faithful....
http://viewmorepics.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewImage&friendID=282258112&albumID=372994&imageID=16340097

[AlicetheKurious]

Hilda, it's about freaking time you showed up! I've been wondering where you were.

[Hilda Martinez]

I didn't know anyone noticed I was gone, so thanks for noticing. I haven't been able to access a computer lately and I have been DOWN SOUTH for some of the time I have been away. I'm at work using the boss' laptop and might have some computer availability tonight. Needless to say as an "ampersand American" - I'm Mexican & American, not Mexican-American - I might have a different perspective than most on this whole flu thing. I'll say now that this is not pretty.

More later...

[Percival]

What the fuck is wrong with Biden, one gaffe after another with this guy:



http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/04/ ... c-threats/


Officials were quick to correct a gaffe by Vice President Joe Biden this morning warning about travel amid swine flu fears, but the comments underscore the biggest economic threat of a pandemic.

On the Today Show Biden was asked what he would say to a member of his family thinking of traveling on a commercial airline to Mexico. “I would tell members of my family — and I have — I wouldn’t go anywhere in confined places now,” the vice president said. “You’re in confined aircraft. When one person sneezes it goes all the way through the aircraft. I would not be — at this point, if they had another way of transportation — suggesting they ride the subway. From my perspective what it relates to is mitigation. If you’re out in the middle of a field and someone sneezes, that’s one thing. If you’re in a closed aircraft or a closed container, a closed car, a closed classroom, it’s a different thing.” (Watch the appearance here.)

The White House released a clarification, indicating that Biden meant people should only avoid confined places if they are sick. Later, CDC acting director Richard Besser responded to the comments. “I think flying is safe. Going on the subway is safe. People should go out and live their lives,” he said.

While government officials are doing their best to stem the risks of a spreading pandemic, they must walk a fine line so as not to inspire panic. If the public becomes unnecessarily cautious, it could have a severe impact on a weakened economy that is just beginning to show signs of stabilization. A recent report by the World Bank suggested that the largest economic impact from a pandemic comes not from mortality or work absenteeism, but in efforts to avoid infection.

“The relative magnitude of these three factors differs considerably: people’s efforts to avoid infection are 5 times more important than mortality and more than twice as important as illness,” the World Bank said. That same report put the global cost of a moderately severe pandemic at around $2 trillion.

Biden’s comments look unnecessarily alarmist as long as the mortality and infection rates are relatively low. However, as Ezra Klein, who looks at the study “The Effectiveness of Policies to Control a Human Influenza Pandemic” by Arin Dutta, points out if the pandemic becomes more severe, “Biden’s warning will come to be seen as, if anything, insufficiently alarmist.”

[seemslikeadream]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/67283.html


Company warned officials of flu 18 days before alert was issued

By Les Blumenthal | McClatchy Newspapers


WASHINGTON — A Washington state biosurveillance firm raised the first warning about a possible outbreak of swine flu in Mexico more than two weeks before the World Health Organization offered its initial alert about a public health emergency of international concern.

Both federal and international health officials had access to the warning from Veratect Corp. Later e-mails calling attention to the company's subsequent report that the disease was possibly spreading in Mexico were sent to 10 officials of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Robert Hart, the company's chief executive.

Hart said he wasn't sure why health officials didn't act sooner.

"They have a lot of other responsibilities," Hart said on Thursday. "But every day makes a difference."

CDC officials in Atlanta said they were aware of Veratect's claims and hadn't been working with the company.

"We have nothing to add about their claims," said CDC spokesman Llelwyn Grant, adding that the CDC and other public health agencies had plans in place to deal with a flu pandemic and responded rapidly once they became aware of the Mexican outbreak.

[justdrew]

WASHINGTON — A Washington state biosurveillance firm raised the first warning about a possible outbreak of swine flu in Mexico more than two weeks before the World Health Organization offered its initial alert about a public health emergency of international concern.

now I'm wondering HOW a private American "bio-surveillance" company CONDUCTS bio-surveillance in Mexico. Did send send any emails to the Mexican government?

They:

use a technique known as "data mining" to automatically search tens of thousands of Web sites daily for early signs of looming medical problems or civil unrest anywhere in the world. Anything of interest is turned over to a team of 35 analysts to determine its significance and to post on the company's Web site. The company markets access to its Web site to government agencies, businesses and others

...

On April 6, 18 days before the WHO issued its alert, Veratect reported on its Web site a strange outbreak of respiratory disease in La Gloria, Mexico, noting that local residents thought the outbreak was linked to contamination from pig breeding farms nearby.

so in effect they read a lot of web sites and scrape the info to process. Such a technique only worked in Mexico because these small local newspapers have internet sites that carry apparently most of the reporting text from the papers. But seriously, what papers in America have a reporter working the hospital desk? The fact of numerous atypical pneumonia cases would never be reported on in the US and so there would be nothing to "data mine"

We NEED open information sources. We can't depend on glorified ad fliers with a little news in them to sucker the eyeballs into seeing the ads. There needs to be thousands of people all over the world face to face talking with responsible persons on a regular basis and feeding in reports to an open information system. Similar to Wiki but with people actually pounding the pavement gathering "facts" not "newz"

[chiggerbit]

I was told tonight that the local nursing home has a sign up that says they have a flu going around the facility.

[pepsified thinker]

I don't know about you, but seems like we're not hearing much from Mexico lately: the BBC's comment board hasn't posted anything from inside Mexico today, and not much from Mexican people for the last few days. , and not much in the way of updates about the infection rate/death rate there in the U.S. news either.

As I said earlier, the fact of shutting down the country seems so dramatic that I read it as a sign of big problems. I realize I'm 'assuming', but...

So to check things out I poked around a bit for blogs from Mexico.

Here are a few. Anyone know of any others?

Ruminations of an Expatriate
http://www.expatriateruminations.com/Blog/

The Mex Files
http://mexfiles.net/2009/04/26/flu-fear-factor/

Isla Mujeres: Gringo in Paradise--note: this one includes pictures, and one is taken from a local newspaper and might be something to avoid: a guy who drowned is shown before the body was recovered from the water. But the post dealing with the swine flu is before it as you scroll down, and there's plenty of warning so you shouldn't be surprised by it.
http://bnwisla.blogspot.com/



http://www.thetruthaboutmexico.com/

[justdrew]

http://www.narconews.com/Issue57/article3512.html


if there's more bad news I'd guess we'll be seeing it turning up in late Friday newsdumps.

[8bitagent]

I find it pretty much the consensus that this whole thing reaks of a hoax, or at the very least another one of the "Islamic terrorism", "SARS", "bird flu"
overblown reactions to scaremonger people.