The 2012 "Election" thread

[barracuda]

We all agree that "Big Bird" means "the inner cities," right? Just checking.

I sort of thought "Big Bird" meant, "practically the only issue Obama can reasonably campaign about since the debate".

[Perelandra]

National Pew Poll: Romney Leads 49% to 45%

In a stunning reversal from a month ago, in Pew Research's poll of likely voters, Mitt Romney now leads President Obama by 4 points. In September, Obama led by 9 points. Other polls have shown that Romney got a bump from the first debate, but most of them showed Obama still holding a narrow lead. The poll was conducted Oct. 4-7, entirely after the debate.

However, a close look at the internals of the poll turns up something odd. In the October sample, 31% of the respondents self identified as Democrats (vs. 39% in September). Similar, there were 36% Republicans in October (vs. 29% in September). While many people believe Romney "won" the debate, it is extremely unlikely that 21% of the nation's Democrats changed parties as a result of one debate. So there is a fair chance that the Pew poll is an outlier that undersampled Democrats and oversampled Republicans.

For comparison purposes, two other national polls hav also been done entirely since the first debate. Rasmussen has it as a tie at 48% to 48% and Gallup has it at 47% to 47%.

Next Congress Will Be More Divided than This One

No matter which party controls the Senate and House, the next Congress will be far more partisan and less inclined to make deals than the current one due to the exit of centrists from both parties. The Democratic Blue Dog caucus, which was home to the most conservative Democrats in the House, has been decimated, moving the party as a whole further to the left. The trend is expected to continue, with Blue Dogs Jim Matheson (D-UT), John Barrow (D-GA), Mike McIntyre (D-NC), and Larry Kissell (D-NC) in tough fights. Heath Shuler (D-NC) and Dan Boren (D-OK) have given up altogether and are retiring. With the Republicans, centrists have either retired, been defeated in primaries, or are likely to lose in the general election, moving the Republican caucus further to the right.

The same pattern holds in the Senate. With the retirements of Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), there are not a lot of senators left who can form a bridge to the other party. The consequence of these shifts is that deal making in the new Congress is going to be even harder than in the current one, and that was no picnic.

In a sense, Congress is going to be more like the British Parliament, with two diametrically opposed parties and nearly all votes going along straight party lines. Of course, the British Prime Minister is always the leader of the majority party and there is no filibuster there, so the majority can actually get things done. The U.S. is likely to end up with the worst features of both systems: intense partisanship combined with the ability of the minority party to block the majority at every turn.
Active Duty and Retired Military Personnel Support Romney

A poll of active-duty, National Guard, and reserve members who subscribe to the Military Times shows that 66% want Romney as Commander-in-Chief and 26% want President Obama to fulfill that role. However, it is not clear how the email poll was conducted and how random the sample was, especially when 80% report having a college degree.

Biden V2.0 May Be Very Different from Biden V1.0

In 2008, Joe Biden handled his debate-mate, Sarah Palin, with kid gloves to avoid angering women, which could easily have happened had he lit into her. On Thursday, we are almost certain to see a very different Biden, who is going to be landing as many punches on Paul Ryan as he can.

In particular, Biden is studying the transcript of the first presidential debate to see where Obama could have hit Romney and didn't. He is likely to hit Ryan on those points. Ryan has never been on the national stage before, so it is hard to tell what his debut will be like.

Reuters made a list of things to watch for in the vice-presidential debate:

Fireworks. The candidates are likely to attack each other incessantly
Lie detection. Romney wasn't called on his lies. Ryan will certainly be
Medicare. Ryan is the author of the plan to convert Medicare to a voucher system
Foreign policy. Could Ryan, who is inexperienced in this area, goof?
Foreshadowing of 2016. Ryan and Biden could conceivably be the 2016 nominees

Another factor to consider in the vice-presidential debate is the age gap between Biden (70) and Ryan (42). When Ryan was born in 1970, Biden had already finished college and law school, married, become a father, and been elected to public office (the New Castle County Council). When the subject of Medicare comes up--which it will repeatedly--Biden can talk to seniors about it with an air of authority. Ryan has to be careful not to come over as a callous pipsqueak who wants to throw granny under the bus.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct09.html#item-4

[82_28]

Dude, that is the best bad lip reading yet! I think I've seen them all so far. But fuck that was fucking hilarious!

[Hammer of Los]

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There is Providence in the Fall of the Sparrowhawk.

Geddit?

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[seemslikeadream]

10/11/2012
What Biden Should Say Tonight 2012 (Rude Version):
At tonight's debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Republican nominee Paul Ryan, if moderator Martha Raddatz asks Biden about his opinion of Paul Ryan's budget plan, and he doesn't say, "Listen, everyone, before I get to that, I want us all to take a moment and look at Paul Ryan. Just look at him for a moment. He's young, handsome, a good-looking guy, strong jaw, deep blue eyes that I'm sure made all the girls in Wisconsin just swoon. Look at him. You are literally looking at everything that's wrong with the Congress. You are looking at the problem. You are looking at the reason why we can't get a jobs bill, the reason we can't get a rational tax plan done, the reason that we can't close Guantanamo, all of it, the fact that 'compromise' is a dirty word to Republicans, it's all right there, in one package.

"So, pardon me, Martha and everyone watching and listening, if I say nice things about how he looks - hell, he's probably a good man to his family - and if I don't spend a lot of time complimenting Representative Ryan's abilities as a member of Congress. Because what you see there, behind the pretty face and the baby blues, is a man who will take everything you love and fuck it to death in front of you before burning it down. Your grandmother, your babies, your wives, your friends. Paul Ryan will line 'em up and, one by one, he'll bend 'em over and fuck them, hard, until they just give out and expire. Ryan will invite all of his Republican friends in Congress, John Boehner, Eric Cantor, that crazy cracker - Louis Gomer, Gohmert, whatever the fuck that yahoo from Texas calls himself - and he'll give 'em all shish-ka-bobs of your balls to roast on the fire he'll make out of the bodies and your house. The country's gonna burn down and Paul Ryan will simply call for more wood.

"You asked me about his budget. The one that Mitt Romney is running away from like a scared bitch from a switch? Look, you know me. I'm a good Catholic boy. I listened to my nuns all the way through school. I was told to take care of the poor. That's our responsibility. Ryan slashes everything that helps people who need help. Medicaid, food stamps, housing, it's like he's taking the bodies of those in poverty and cutting extra holes in 'em because they ones they have aren't kinky enough for him to fuck. And then he shits on their faces by cutting taxes for the rich. And then he makes them eat shit by hiking defense spending. How is that visionary? It sounds like every Republican plan ever.

"Shut the fuck up, sonny. I know everyone in your party has lined up to suck your dick like it's made of candy and shoots ice cream on their tits. But shut the fuck up and listen. You and the rest of the GOP have hurt this country by refusing to compromise on anything. That's not what makes you a statesman. It ain't your ability to slam doors. It's the ability to go down the hall and make the deal. But you're such a little pussy that even when you vote for a deal, the sequester, you deny you did it. No, Congressman. You voted to cut defense if there's no compromises on spending and taxes. Be a man. It's easy as hell to take food out of the mouths of starving children. It's really hard to tell General Dynamics that their profit margin might decline by a percent or two.

"Martha, once again I find myself on stage with someone who I wouldn't let wash my balls after I workout at the White House gym, let alone be first in line to the presidency. I've walked the walk, son. I wrote the Violence Against Women Act. I stared down Slobodan Milosevic. What the fuck have you done, junior? Come up with a new way to do the same bullshit things that Ronald Reagan and the Bushes did to fuck over the working class? Put some new makeup on the voodoo economics? Go back to school, pretty boy, and come back when you get some manners and learn your history, you child, you pathetic tool of the rich, you overhyped bullshit machine" then the debate will be useless.

[Elvis]

True story. In third grade, age 8, I ran for classroom president (you know, the elementary classroom exercise in democracy, electing officers, making "laws" etc.). I was up against a popular guy. I promised "free candy for everybody!!"

I won.

Weeks later, a kid with a good memory says, "Hey, you promised free candy and we haven't gotten it!" Other kids were like, "Oh yeah! That's right! Where's the candy?!"

I gave some vague assurances, we moved on to other matters, and the subject was never mentioned again.

[Iamwhomiam]

You would have made a great politician, Elvis.

[seemslikeadream]

"Martha, once again I find myself on stage with someone who I wouldn't let wash my balls after I workout at the White House gym,

[Jeff]

Game changer: Lindsay Lohan has endorsed Mitt Romney

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This extremely important, election-altering news comes a month after Lohan tweeted to President Obama and asked him to cut taxes for “those that are listed on Forbes as millionaires” in addition to the middle class.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cel ... _blog.html

[Jeff]

Yoiks.

Latest Presidential Polls: Romney Opens Lead in Florida on the Heels of VP Debate

For Republicans, it's starting to look like "morning in America" again.

Last night's vice presidential debate is largely seems as a draw between Vice President Joe Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan. Two snapshot polls, one from CNN and one from CBS, found Ryan leading Biden (48% to 44%) and the vice president leading the Republican VP nominee (50% to 31%) respectively. Though both Biden and Ryan did probably fire up their respective party bases, last night's debate will do little to change independent voters' minds as well as to stop Mitt Romney's surge in the polls.

The Republican vice presidential nominee keeps receiving good news from pollsters nationwide and in the crucial swing states that will decide the election. Romney has now opened a 7-point lead over President Obama in Florida. The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%.

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http://www.policymic.com/articles/16411 ... -vp-debate

[compared2what?]

I think it's time someone told Sheldon Adelson that it doesn't matter who wins before he wastes another $36 million on buying Netanyahu a brand new Mitt Romney.

[DrVolin]

Florida and Ohio. That's how they'll do it.

[JackRiddler]

Spineless "Democrats" who capitulate on command is also essential.

[ninakat]

This says it all, as far as I'm concerned. Emphasis mine.

Under the Cloak of Liberalism
America on the Cusp of Fascism
Weekend Edition October 12-14, 2012, CounterPunch
by NORMAN POLLACK

I use “fascism” here not as a cliché, but as an historical-structural formation principally rooted in the mature stage of capitalism, in which business-government interpenetration (what the Japanese political scientist Masao Maryuma called the “close-embrace” system) has created hierarchical social classes of wide differences in wealth and power, the militarization of social values and geopolitical strategy, and a faux ideology of classlessness to instill loyalty for the social order among working people. In fact, each of these factors is already present to a high degree in America–superbly disguised however by the rhetoric of liberalism, as in Mr. Obama’s presidency.

This said, my provocative hypothesis (only slightly tongue-in-cheek) is that in the coming election Romney is preferable to Obama. Why? In broad terms, we see varying degrees of sophistication in the mad dash across the finish line (i.e., fascism proper, midway between nascent and full-blown), with Romney and Republicans representing plebeian fascism, and Obama and Democrats a sophisticated corporatist form. Everything charged against Romney may be true, from Social Darwinist beliefs and gut-militarism to cultural intolerance and xenophobia, and perhaps even more so for the party as a whole, though that is a moot point–an overt negation, on all grounds,of what we mean by democracy. (Not that America has honored or achieved that state of political-economic development through most of its history!) To pursue the candidacy of Romney involves one in a societal nightmare of unrestrained wealth (and the perks that go with it, from horribly skewed taxation policy to categorical setbacks to unions, wage rates, and an antilabor climate) and severe cuts in the social safety net. All this is known, predictable, transparent–part of my argument for viewing Romney as preferable to Obama. Clearly, Trotsky in popularized form is in the back of my mind.

By contrast, Obama is unassailable, enjoying the protective cloak of the state secrets doctrine (which, also as the National Security State, he invokes constantly), the liberal glossing on all policy matters, thanks to the extremely able spinmeisters Axelrod and Rhodes, and an adoring, submissive, uncritical base, in deep denial and for whatever reasons unwilling to examine the administration’s record. That record confirms the long-term political, economic, and moral bankruptcy of the Democratic party, whose differentiating character setting it apart from the Republicans lies in the magnitude of skilled evasion and/or deception surrounding policies which themselves replicate the central elements in those of their opponents.

Republicans sincerely criticize Obama because they are too ignorant to recognize, in their rush to antigovernment rhetoric, that he takes the same position as they smoothed out to please a base at best composed of pretend-radicalism and, equally, to ward off criticism from those who desperately want to believe his earlier promises. This comes down to political theater at its cruelest.

The list of actual betrayal is long and virtually covering his public policy without exception. (A good start can be found in the critical essays in Hopeless, a true icebreaker for the uninformed prepared to listen.) Let me select several obvious examples. 1) Health care, in which Obama savaged the single-payer system, thus preparing the way for the same on the public option, meanwhile silencing, or rather, delegitimating all dissident voices, at the same time as exempting health insurers from antitrust prosecution and favoring Big Pharma; 2) Civil liberties, a good litmus test of democratic governance, in which Obama’s Department of Justice argued against granting habeas corpus rights to detainees, invoked the Espionage Act against whistleblowers, carried surveillance beyond that of previous administrations, with the National Security Agency one of the culprits practicing the black magic of eavesdropping, while renditions and “black holes” continue and even agencies like FDA spy on its employees; 3) militarism, from which foreign policy, including trade policy, cannot be excluded, in which the drone–as Obama’s signature weapon–terrorizes whole populations reeking destruction from the skies, naval power displayed from the South China Sea to the Mediterranean, a whole new generation of nuclear weapons in the pipeline (exempt from potential budgetary sequestration), a military budget itself second to none, and what appears to be a permanent state of war; 4) the omissions, which by their absence speak volumes about the purposes and policies of his administration, in which job creation and foreclosures have not been addressed, climate change, wholly disappeared, gun control, nonexistent, poverty never, never mentioned, and business and banking regulation the compounding of phoniness on phoniness, not unexpected considering Obama’s belief in deregulation and bringing in the Clinton-Rubin crowd of free marketeers.

How much more or worse damage can Romney and the Republicans do? They might fuss about same-sex marriage and contraception, while Obama, in his Pacific-first geopolitical vision and concrete strategy, wants to encircle China, and press for an economic agenda promoting further corporate-wealth concentration.

If Republicans come across as Taliban on cultural issues, Democrats almost surreptitiously advance the financialization of the total economy, with the consequent distortions introduced–loss of manufacturing, increasing wealth concentration, and capitalism’s Achilles heel, underconsumption. Why Romney? Because his transparency as a Neanderthal may, just may, bring people into the streets, while under Obama passivity and false consciousness appear almost irreversible. I for one will stay home. The lesser-of-two-evils argument is morally obtuse, and dangerous, the first, because it means complicity with policies ultimately destructive, the second, because it induces an undeserved self-righteousness which next time around would yield further compromise. If the people are gulled and lulled into the acceptance of mock-democracy, courtesy of Goldman Sachs and waterboarding apologist Brennan, with Obama presiding over the bread-and-circuses routine, heaven help us.

Norman Pollack is a Harvard Ph.D. and the author of “The Populist Response to Industrial America” (Harvard) and “The Just Polity” (Illinois), Guggenheim Fellow, and professor of history emeritus, Michigan State University.

[Hammer of Los]

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How much more or worse damage can Romney and the Republicans do?

They can set off a dozen thermonuclear bunker busters in Iran, that's what they can do.

And maybe initiate further thermonuclear exchange.

I think Obama and a Democratic administration may just possibly be able to prevent that.

I'm just doin' my best to save the world.

Don't mind me.

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