How Bad Is Global Warming?

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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby jakell » Tue Apr 26, 2016 11:09 am

82_28 » Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:31 pm wrote:Here's what I don't get. Is why bother with RI in the first place? It's not as though anyone is going to have any form of influence on anything. No one is going to just switch to fascist or racist or any ist because we got all persuaded and shit. We come here and have come here over the years for a reason. We're fucking unique. And like a nesting doll we're unique in our own ways. Yet by being unique we all are very similar and also at this point familiar. The similarity is what makes this joint unique. I hold all members who have stuck around in very high esteem.

I really hate to say it yet again is that basically nothing pisses me off as long as it remains in opinion-land. I bartended for close to two decades blah blah blah. I'm of the type of if you wanna tell me, lay it on me. I am willing to listen and I do not judge. It's awesome being around 95 people plus and being concerned about them all and also having to be a hardass! Anyhow, carry on and be merry.


Wasn't going to comment here because it was all looking a bit shrill, however this sounds like the voice of reason and I would like to support it.

At times RI looks like it's veering ever closer to groupthink, which is a pretty dangerous thing, and piling onto one poster because they are slightly (in my estimation) to the right of the board's preference is an indication of that tendency. And what I'm seeing is piling on, or at the very least, pressurising.

One more observation.. Most of the posters here go wayback, and are pretty clannish, there's nothing really wrong with that and it's fairly natural, but it is quite evident that you aren't getting many/any new members. Possibly you don't want any, I don't know, but it does strike me that BTIA is fairly new and so this could be another (unconscious) factor in the members' attitude.

There, I've said it. (and so did Mulebone a while back)
" Orwell feared those who would deprive us of information. Huxley feared those who would give us so much that we would be reduced to passivity and egoism"
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby NeonLX » Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:24 pm

I've actually been trying to recruit new members for this place. Some of my friends (yes I have friends) have a decidedly RI outlook on the world--they don't take anything they see or hear at face value. I'm still working on them to join.

I'm with 82_28. Opinions don't piss me off. I routinely "argue" in a forum of atheists vs. Christians. That place can heat up very quickly. But I and others from the forum, on both sides of the fence, go there to have fun and maybe learn things.

OK, I'm a cracker and therefore I'm automatically race-insensitive. But my daughter is Indian. She was shopping with me one day when she was little. This white dude came walking up to us and asked, "Is that your kid?".
I replied "Yep''.
White dude: "Is she adopted?"
Me: "Yep."
White dude: "Why didn't you adopt one of your own kind?"'
Me: "Oh, you mean I should have adopted a balding, middle aged white guy with freckles and a big nose?"
America is a fucked society because there is no room for essential human dignity. Its all about what you have, not who you are.--Joe Hillshoist
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby jakell » Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:10 pm

NeonLX » Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:24 pm wrote:I've actually been trying to recruit new members for this place. Some of my friends (yes I have friends) have a decidedly RI outlook on the world--they don't take anything they see or hear at face value. I'm still working on them to join.

I'm with 82_28. Opinions don't piss me off. I routinely "argue" in a forum of atheists vs. Christians. That place can heat up very quickly. But I and others from the forum, on both sides of the fence, go there to have fun and maybe learn things.

OK, I'm a cracker and therefore I'm automatically race-insensitive. But my daughter is Indian. She was shopping with me one day when she was little. This white dude came walking up to us and asked, "Is that your kid?".
I replied "Yep''.
White dude: "Is she adopted?"
Me: "Yep."
White dude: "Why didn't you adopt one of your own kind?"'
Me: "Oh, you mean I should have adopted a balding, middle aged white guy with freckles and a big nose?"


My 'arena' for the last couple of years has also been the religious one (until my last forum closed anyway) and I've found it reliably evokes a broader scope of discussion than most other approaches, even amongst those who don't usually seem open to it.

This might seem unlikely to some, and view religious folks as being hopelessly dogmatic and backward.. implying that secular people are the opposite, which is definitely not the case. I've had some of my most fruitful (and simultaneously frustrating) conversations with religious folks, and I think that it's just nice to talk with people who actually believe in something, and don't cry off at the first sign of solid disagreement.
I don't think there's much chance of encountering such folks here though, or at least they will play their beliefs down (thinking of D&C)
" Orwell feared those who would deprive us of information. Huxley feared those who would give us so much that we would be reduced to passivity and egoism"
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby 82_28 » Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:59 pm

RE "groupthink" I think that as RI has become smaller we actually are a group. We all have opinions for sure. They do indeed vary but job number one is to always remain friends. Like I have said elsewhere, I do not troll anywhere. I guess I did once troll some idiot at focus on the family back in the 90s. But that was before forums and stuff but I was not "trolling" I was just telling him he was an idiot and that focus on the family is an evil enterprise. Well, whatever. I've gotten dozens of people to renounce their firmly held beliefs in life. Just question, freely inquire about everything and don't be afraid of the questions because there is no answer to anything. There are rote answers and proofs but one person's take will differ from the next. This is why acceptance and love are key. Not for you, but for everyone.

I used to completely destroy these fundie missionaries on campus. They would come around looking for recruits or whatever it is they were looking for. But people would gather around to listen to me destroy their fundamentalism! Nothing I would do today, but fond memories making fundamentalists that dare I say from the influence of Carl Sagan. Yet it was fun, I suppose, watching people so sure melt once I convinced them that the questioning is the path. They would say I was a "doubting Thomas" and I would say the fuck I am and basically walk off.
There is no me. There is no you. There is all. There is no you. There is no me. And that is all. A profound acceptance of an enormous pageantry. A haunting certainty that the unifying principle of this universe is love. -- Propagandhi
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Tue Apr 26, 2016 7:27 pm

Burnt Hill » Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:42 pm wrote:
82_28 » Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:30 pm wrote:Man, it seems like I'm always going to bat for someone or another here. I don't know quite what iam was getting at, but I know he is a good guy. He just gets "cranky" shall we say. He is very involved in environmental and peace causes. Everyone just drop it and let everything slide like water off a duck's back. :sun:


Sure, but you are not the one that gets repeatedly smeared 82.
I am cranky, I don't take it out on this board.
I am very involved in environmental and peace causes, so what does that have to do with how I treat other members here?
I have had personal tragedy, but I don't use it for mileage around here.
Yes he gets a free ride, we know.
Mod aint gonna do anything about it.
So fuck him.

Once again, I ask whom is smearing whom? Burnt Hill, you've been claiming I've repeatedly smeared you, which I deny ever doing. Please present us with evidence to support your charge or be honest enough to admit you have made the claim in error.

And this is the second time you've referred to my using the death of my son, a victim of a mass murder, to gain, as you so crudely put it this time, "mileage around here." Please do not do this again. It is an outrageous and despicable claim that history recorded here proves false, time and again. You have unwittingly provided us with a classic example of "victimizing the victim."

And then you end by writing, "So fuck him." I suppose this you feel is giving me a free pass.

I am very involved in environmental and peace causes, so what does that have to do with how I treat other members here?
Dude, you posted a photograph of Judge Judy, a childish thing for an adult to do in a serious discussion about a topic with devastating repercussions for humanity. Such nonsense hasn't any place in a discussion between adults. Besides, it wasn't even original!

And you go on...
Burnt Hill » Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:09 pm wrote:
82_28 » Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:48 pm wrote:No don't "fuck him" at all. He really is good peeps.

I didn't mean it literally. :ohwh
Iam may be Jesus Christ himself in real life, but he is a sanctimonious prick on the forum.
That's fine too, but he also likes to make things personal and smears people with contrived innuendo.
That and his poor logic- while calling out others for lack of rigor- really needs to be called out.
So in the gentle sense that you often use the term, fuck him.
No big deal, this too shall pass.

Another example of my getting a free pass, this time being called a sanctimonious prick and being told in the gentlest way to get fucked.

I have no ill will towards you, Burnt Hill.

Perhaps after you've pointed out for us a few of the slanderous comments you've claimed I've made and a few others that I was given a free pass on we'll be able to sort out the truth from the fiction.

When I see narrow minded people too blinded by their prejudices to realize their very own reality, folk who offer insipid off topic remarks that distract away from the serious matter being discussed, coping with our changing climate and our changing ecosystem: in essence, human survival, I tend to be a bit sanctimonious toward. I have three generations who will live on after I've died, so I do want to accomplish instituting as many protections from environmental hazards as I can, for everyone's benefit.

I tend to be cranky towards those who suggest I am the blind one or an alarmist - the worst kind of environmentalist one can be to those who see environmental regulation of pollutants as being burdensome to industry and free market enterprise. But I'd rather be seen as an informed environmentalist who has made a positive and lasting impact, because that history too is true and my success is widely known.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Tue Apr 26, 2016 7:36 pm

backtoiam » Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:58 am wrote:Attempting to have a civil discussion in the presence of a Soros globalist cheerleader is like wrestling a greased pig in the mud. And, the pig likes it!

This is an fine example of an insipid comment. It is totally off-topic and identifies no one and says more about its author than anyone else.

We could do with less of these momentarily distracting annoyances.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby zangtang » Tue Apr 26, 2016 7:52 pm

I think insipid might not mean what you think it means.

Not wholly devoid of flavour, mud-wrestling greasy pigs.

Thread would seem to have become derailed somewhat.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:32 pm

^^^^ My using "insipid" was intended as "lacking substance" or any of these synonyms: unimaginative, uninspired, uninspiring, characterless, flat, uninteresting, lackluster, dull, drab, boring, dry, humdrum, ho-hum, monochrome, tedious, uneventful, run-of-the-mill, commonplace, pedestrian, trite, tired, hackneyed, stale, lame, wishy-washy, colorless, anemic, lifeless.

The greased pigs gave me the slip.

:backtotopic:

This is a bit dated, but still of importance. I pulled it before I took some time away.

Pressure on Exxon Over Climate Change Intensifies With New Document

By JOHN SCHWARTZ APRIL 14, 2016

Image
An aerial view of Exxon Mobil’s refineries in Torrance, Calif. State attorneys general are inquiring the company over its climate claims. Credit Jeffrey Milstein/REX, via Associated Press

Pressure on Exxon Mobil and the energy industry increased on Wednesday with the release of a new cache of decades-old industry documents about climate change, even as Exxon pushed back against efforts to investigate the company over its climate claims through the years.

The new documents were released by an activist research organization, the Center for International Environmental Law, which published the project on its website.

The documents, according to the environmental law center’s director, Carroll Muffett, suggest that the industry had the underlying knowledge of climate change even 60 years ago.

“From 1957 onward, there is no doubt that Humble Oil, which is now Exxon, was clearly on notice” about rising CO2 in the atmosphere and the prospect that it was likely to cause global warming, he said.
What’s more, he said, the documents show the industry was beginning to organize against regulation of air pollution.

The American Petroleum Institute, energy companies and other organizations had created a group, the Smoke and Fumes Committee, to monitor and conduct pollution research, and to “use science and public skepticism to prevent environmental regulations they deemed hasty, costly and unnecessary,” according to the center’s description of the documents on its website.

Those actions, Mr. Muffett suggested, would be echoed in later efforts to undermine climate science.

The center’s work was first reported by Inside Climate News, which has published stories, as did The Los Angeles Times, suggesting that Exxon Mobil understood the risks of climate change from its own research, which it used to plan activities such as drilling in the Arctic, while it funded groups into the mid-2000s that denied serious climate risks.

Those earlier investigations led to a surge in activism against the company and the energy industry, using the hashtag #exxonknew. The investigations also have been cited by attorneys general, including Eric T. Schneiderman of New York, who have demanded information from Exxon about its internal research and its funding of climate denial.

Inside Climate News announced that Wednesday’s article is the first of a series based on the work of the environmental law center and documents it has amassed on its own.

Alan Jeffers, a spokesman for Exxon Mobil, called the new allegations absurd.

“To suggest that we had definitive knowledge about human-induced climate change before the world’s scientists is not a credible thesis,” he said.

Four attorneys general are investigating Exxon Mobil’s public statements and private scientific knowledge over the years, and the company struck back on Wednesday in a filing in Texas against Claude Earl Walker, the attorney general of the United States Virgin Islands, and a private law firm working with his office on the investigation.

The filing called Mr. Walker’s actions a “flagrant misuse of law enforcement power” that “violate Exxon Mobil’s constitutionally protected rights of freedom of speech, freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures, and due process of law and constitute the common law tort of abuse of process.”
The company, it noted, has no “physical presence” in the Virgin Islands, and its courts have no jurisdiction over the company.

In addition, the company stated, it has “widely and publicly confirmed” that it recognizes “that the risk of climate change and its potential impacts on society and ecosystems may prove to be significant.”
Kert Davies, the director of the Climate Investigations Center, a group funded by foundations seeking to limit the risks of climate change, said Mr. Muffett’s project “has pulled back the curtain on any plausible deniability that Big Oil might have pretended they had on the dangers of climate change.” And, he added, “the naked truth is pretty ugly.”

But Michael B. Gerrard, the director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School, said that the early stirrings of climate science have already been well documented.

“It has been known for years that scientists in that era were talking about climate change,” he said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/14/science/pressure-on-exxon-over-climate-change-intensifies-with-new-documents.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-3&action=click&contentCollection=Science&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

seemslikeadream posted about this at the time.

A Range of Opinions on Climate Change at Exxon Mobil

By THE NEW YORK TIMES NOV. 6, 2015

Image
An Exxon Mobil refinery in Baytown, Tex. Credit Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters

The New York attorney general’s investigation of Exxon Mobil will seek to determine whether the company lied to the public and investors about the risks of climate change. The investigation will focus on whether statements the company made to the public about climate risks were consistent with its own long-running scientific research. Here are some examples of statements made by the company – including executives and its own scientists – over the years.

1980
Internal Exxon Document


From a paper titled, “Exxon Research and Engineering Company’s Technological Forecast CO2 Effect,” by H. Shaw and P.P. McCall:

“Projections of scientists active in the area indicate that the contribution of deforestation, which may have been substantial in the past, will diminish in comparison to the expected rate of fossil fuel combustion in the future. A number of scientists have postulated that a doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could occur as early as 2035. Calculations recently completed at Exxon Research indicate that using the energy projections from the CONAES (Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems) study and the World Energy Conference, a doubling of atmospheric CO2 can occur at about 2060.

1989
Duane G. Levine, Exxon’s Manager of Science and Strategy Development


A year after the NASA climate scientist James Hansen warned Congress that global warming was already occurring, an Exxon scientist made a presentation on the topic to the company’s board of directors. His notes included the following language:

“In spite of the rush by some participants in the greenhouse debate to declare that the science has demonstrated the existence of [global warming] today, I do not believe such is the case. Enhanced greenhouse is still deeply imbedded in scientific uncertainty, and we will require substantial additional investigation to determine the degree to which its effects might be experienced in the future.”

1995
Lenny Bernstein, Exxon Mobil Chemical Engineer and Expert on Climate Change


An email by Mr. Bernstein to Ohio University’s Institute for Applied and Professional Ethics shows that Exxon (before its merger with Mobil) was aware of climate change science years before it became a political issue.

In his note, Mr. Bernstein refers to a giant natural gas field in Indonesia that Exxon did not ultimately develop:

“Exxon first got interested in climate change in 1981 because it was seeking to develop the Natuna gas field off Indonesia. ”

“When I first learned about the project in 1989, the projections were that if Natuna were developed and its CO2 vented to the atmosphere, it would be the largest point source of CO2 in the world and account for 1 percent of projected global CO2 emissions.”

1997
Lee Raymond, Exxon Chief Executive


Mr. Raymond, in a speech to the 15th World Petroleum Congress in Beijing, addressed the issue:

“It is highly unlikely that the temperature in the middle of the next century will be affected whether policies are enacted now or 20 years from now.”

2000
Exxon Mobil Newspaper Ad


In response to the Clinton Administration’s report on the potential effects of climate change on different regions and industries in the United States, the company took out a lengthy ad. Excerpts include:

“The report’s language and logic appear designed to emphasize selective results to convince people that climate change will adversely impact their lives.”

“The report is written as a political document, not an objective summary of the underlying science. Climate change is an important public issue. That is why we support emphasis on further climate research, the development and encouragement of promising technology, the promotion of more efficient use of energy, the removal of barriers to innovation, and cost-benefit assessments of proposed policies.”

2002
Bob B. Peterson, Chief Executive of Imperial Oil, Exxon Mobil’s Subsidiary in Canada


Mr. Peterson told the Canadian Press news service that “Kyoto is an economic entity,” referring to the Kyoto Protocol initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions:

“It has nothing to do with the environment. It has to do with world trade. This is a wealth-transfer scheme between developed and developing nations.”

2004
Exxon Mobil Newspaper Ad


“Scientific uncertainties continue to limit our ability to make objective, quantitative determinations regarding the human role in recent climate change or the degree and consequences of future change.”

2007
Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil’s Chief Executive


Mr. Tillerson changed course in a speech before a conference in Houston organized by the energy consulting firm Cambridge Energy Research Associates:

“The risks to society and ecosystems from climate change could prove to be significant. So, despite the uncertainties, it is prudent to develop and implement sensible strategies that address these risks.”

“A range implies a certain degree of uncertainty. Policy decisions need to accommodate that uncertainty.”

2008
J. Stephen Simon, an Exxon Mobil Senior Vice President


Testifying before a Senate Judiciary Committee on May 21, 2008, Mr. Simon was pressed by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Democrat of Rhode Island, who suggested that fringe views on climate change were being endorsed and espoused by oil companies. Mr. Simon responded:

“In other words, that we are supporting junk science and trying to make people think that this is not an issue. I think all of us recognize it is an issue. It is how we deal with it – and I think we are dealing with it, and we are doing so in a responsible fashion.”

2010
Exxon Mobil Annual Report


“Because we want to ensure that today’s progress does not come at the expense of future generations we need to manage the risks to our environment. This includes taking meaningful steps to curb global greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, while also utilizing local resources to help maintain secure supplies. Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions represent close to 60 percent of global GHG emissions attributed to human activities, and are expected to increase about 25 percent from 2005 to 2030. This increase is substantially lower than the projected growth in energy demand over the period, reflecting improved energy efficiency, as well as a shift to a significantly less carbon-intensive energy mix – mainly natural gas, nuclear and wind gaining share as fuels for power generation.”

2014
Exxon Mobil Annual Report


The company commented on various countries’ consideration of rules for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to control climate change:

“These requirements could make our products more expensive, lengthen project implementation times, and reduce demand for hydrocarbons, as well as shift hydrocarbon demand toward relatively lower-carbon sources such as natural gas.”

2015
Ken Cohen, Exxon Mobil Vice President for Public and Government Affairs


Mr. Cohen, in a blog post entitled “Exxon Mobil’s commitment to climate science,” wrote:

“What we have understood from the outset – and something which over-the-top activists fail to acknowledge — is that climate change is an enormously complicated subject.

“The climate and mankind’s connection to it are among the most complex topics scientists have ever studied, with a seemingly endless number of variables to consider over an incredibly long timespan.”

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/06/science/exxon-mobil-global-warming-statements-climate-change.html
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Wed Apr 27, 2016 5:21 am



Its ok. You can go fishing first thing in the morning and set the river on fire to keep warm.

This only happened the other day yeah? I know people who have found bubbling and set it on fire before on that river.

Gas seeping from Condamine River poses no threat, says CSIRO


THE methane gas emanating from the Condamine River in Queensland poses no environmental impact, according to the CSIRO.

This comes after NSW Greens MP Jeremy Buckingham’s video of lighting up gas seeps went viral.

Professor Damian Barrett, CSIRO’s research director of onshore gas and director of the Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance, said research teams had been working on the gas seeps from the Condamine River for the past two-and-a-half years and had been looking at the source of the gas, variation in flows of gas and the geological nature of the area.

Prof Barrett said “we have a pretty good idea of what’s going on, but it is hard to be completely definitive as the gas is emanating from underground”.

“The work has looked at the environmental impact in that area and it shows no impact whatsoever,” Prof Barrett said.

He said the research showed the gas, which can be seen bubbling out of the River, is coming from coal.

“In that part of the landscape coal is 70-80 metres below the surface and it is intercepted by the Condamine Alluvium, so it is not unusual in sedimentary basins for coal to come through fissures and cracks to the surface,” Prof Barrett said.

However, Prof Barrett said the amount of methane in the area that was filmed in the video has increased in the past 12 months and according to anecdotes from locals it has been increasing since people first noticed it a few years ago.

“One of the things that is different to 12 months ago is the sediments in the river have moved due to the flow,” he said.

“Methane is coming straight out to the surface instead of being affected by sediments.”

Another factor which Prof Barrett said was different is the fact the Chinchilla Weir is releasing water in stages for irrigation, so that could be contributing to sediment in the river moving.

“I can see the imagery in the video is very dramatic and it isn’t something that happens every day,” he said.

“The important thing is to look at the science.”

Prof Barrett also addressed the concerns raised by Mr Buckingham about the CSIRO’s independence.

“The CSIRO takes the independent aspect of its work seriously,” he said.

“We undertake research for the Australian people and industry in the national interest, as well as research specifically for the public good,” he said.

Prof Barrett said where they did work specifically for companies, such as research currently being undertaken for Origin Energy, it is declared and the reports go through internal peer reviews.

“The industry we might do work for is essentially purchasing our credible and independent view.”
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Burnt Hill » Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:00 am

Could global warming's top culprit help crops?

Many scientists fear that global warming will hit staple food crops hard, with heat stress, extreme weather events and water shortages. On the other hand, higher levels of carbon dioxide—the main cause of ongoing warming—is known to boost many plants' productivity, and reduce their use of water. So, if we keep pouring more CO2 into the air, will crops fail, or benefit? A new study tries to disentangle this complex question. It suggests that while greater warmth will reduce yields of some crops, higher CO2 could help mitigate the effects in some regions, unless other complications of global warming interfere.

The study, by 16 researchers from a half-dozen countries, uses newly available crop models and data from ongoing large-scale field experiments. It appears this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.

"Most of the discussion around climate impacts focuses only on changes in temperature and precipitation," said lead author Delphine Deryng, an environmental scientist at Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the University of Chicago's Computation Institute. "To adapt adequately, we need to understand all the factors involved." Deryng cautions that the study should not be interpreted to mean that increasing carbon dioxide is a friend to humanity—only that its direct effects must be included in any calculation of what the future holds.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-04-global-cul ... s.html#jCp
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:13 am

So now you're pushing the ridiculous, that the increased carbon dioxide that's killing life on earth can be somewhat beneficial to some unmentioned crop's health. How nice of you to share this wonderful news.

I wonder how well all that CO2 will make the rice grow in salinated waters and soils.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Burnt Hill » Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:18 am

From the ^^ article-
Deryng cautions that the study should not be interpreted to mean that increasing carbon dioxide is a friend to humanity—only that its direct effects must be included in any calculation of what the future holds.

*It may not conform to the existing groupthink and your desire for thread purity,
but it does acknowledge the science of climate change and is a start towards moving to how we will deal with it.
It would be helpful if you addressed the content of posts, rather than assuming the motivations behind the person that makes the post. Your constant attempts to derail threads with personal attacks is wearisome
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:36 am

Good to have you back on this thread Joe, how are things? How's the baby? Yeah I just saw that video posted this week, I think it's very recent.
The Rich and the Corporate remain in their hundred-year fever visions of Bolsheviks taking their stuff - JackRiddler
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Burnt Hill » Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:47 am

Climate change adaptation in global megacities protects wealth – not people

Cities across the world are increasingly at risk from climate change. People living in extreme poverty are especially vulnerable, both because global warming will tend to hit developing countries the hardest, and because they have less money to throw at the problem.

We used newly-available data to investigate how cities are responding to climate change and whether resources are being allocated efficiently or fairly. We expected there to be differences in spending between rich and poor. But we did not expect them to be so vast, with New York for instance spending more than £190 (US$260) per person to protect its people and infrastructure from the impact of climate change, while Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa spends less than £5 ($7).

It seems the amount spent on climate adaptation is driven more by the amount of wealth at risk rather than the number of vulnerable people.

Adaptation simply means any actions that anticipate the negative consequences of climate change – to human health, the economy or ecosystems – and attempt to minimise the damage. In big cities this might mean raising sea walls to tackle sea level rise or expanding drains to cope with bigger storm surges.

We need a comprehensive picture of how much is being spent on these adaptation measures across the world. The Millennium Development Goals, despite their shortcomings, have demonstrated that measuring a problem provides an invaluable baseline from which improvements can occur.


Addis Ababa’s preparations for climate change can’t compete with those in richer cities. Laika ac, CC BY-SA

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For this study, published in Nature Climate Change, we focused on spending in ten megacities. New adaptation spending figures were gathered and analysed using data triangulation, which draws on many different sources and types of data to arrive at more accurate estimates. Our work on this is part of a wider project on measuring the size of the green economy.

Where ever you look, this “adaptation economy” remains a small part of the overall economy – a maximum of 0.33% of a city’s gross domestic product. Yet there are real disparities between cities. As you might expect, developed cities spend significantly more per capita. After all, most things cost a lot more in the US than in Ethiopia, and new drainage systems, air conditioning and so on are no different.


Cities in richer countries spend more in total and per head (2014-15 data). Paris is an exception due to narrow definitions of its ‘city proper’. Georgeson et al/Nature Comms, Author provided

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But this same disparity also applies as a percentage of city GDP. The three rich cities we looked at spend nearly half as much again as the developing cities (around 0.22% of city GDP, compared to 0.15%), even though climate change is a far scarier prospect for low-lying, flood-prone Jakarta or already-hot Addis Ababa than it is for London or Paris.

Of course, cities in poorer countries have greater competing needs for their finances. Things Londoners or Parisians can take for granted such as clean water or basic healthcare are still pressing issues in Lagos or Mumbai.

Yet such disparity still has to end, particularly as between now and 2050 the major growth in urban populations will be in China, India, Indonesia and Nigeria. In these countries we need to think about how to boost cities’ resilience through far more adaptation funding.


Beijing tops the charts for adaptation as a percentage of GDP (2014/15 data). Georgeson et al / Nature Comms, Author provided

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It can be done. Just look at Beijing, which stands out because the proportion of its economy devoted to climate adaptation was significantly higher than any other city in the study. Almost half of this was spent on changes to the built environment such as water efficiency retrofitting – a much higher ratio than any other city – with less going towards health or agriculture.

The fact the Chinese capital is taking adaptation seriously is linked to strong central government policies, which encourage cities to face up to climate change. In China, all provinces have a comprehensive adaptation plan and a taskforce to deliver it. When governments offer leadership and policy certainty, things will happen.

Most cities at least show solid growth in adaptation spending over the past five years, beyond their average GDP growth for the period. But adaptation spending was more volatile in Addis Ababa and Lagos, the cities in the study that spent the least in real, proportional and per capita terms, and heavily-dependent on a few specific projects. This should be a cause for concern.

It is clear that insufficient funds are being spent to protect major population centres in developing and emerging economies. Our study is an early warning sign: we must remain focused on protecting people at risk, and not just the “capital”.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:49 am

Deryng says the study is sturdier than past research, because it uses new data from experiments done in actual farm fields, and a half-dozen global crop models, several of which only recently became available. Nevertheless, she says, the uncertainties remain large.


Science, which has been condemned by others posting here, being done by actual scientists is being used to show some imagined potential benefit from Anthropogenic Climate Change?

So mathematical models when used to show a supposed benefit from climate change are to be taken as valid, but models used to show potential harm from climate change are somehow invalid? :shrug:

Deryng cautions that the study should not be interpreted to mean that increasing carbon dioxide is a friend to humanity—only that its direct effects must be included in any calculation of what the future holds.


Kinda hard to determine "its direct effects," considering "the uncertainties remain large."
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