Peak oil a hoax? Prove it.

[wintler2]

..Working on nothing but a pinch of federal grant, university tenure and VC money, solar technology ..

BP Solar logo

timeline of over 150years research on photovoltaics

Care to explain your point?

It seemed to me you were implying PV was some sort of new and short-of-cash industry.

The BP Solar logo illustrates that PV has been big business for decades, unsurprising considering v.high tech v.high energy intensity of manufacture.

The timeline illustrates that alot of people have been working on PVs for a long time.

[wintler2]

http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/imag ... MATION.gif

[Stephen Morgan]

^^^this is a real jet. It determines the shape of the oil market.

It is fiendishly clever of the genocidal bastards if you think about it. If low EROEI sources like deep sea and tar sands are the long term future, you would want to create this kind of short term artificial scarcity in order to make your long term prospects viable during the transition. This kind of artificial manipulation would definitely extend the bumpy plateau as well as ease the backside of the curve ... and make your remaining high EROEI sources extremely profitable. I'm going to chew on that a while.

On edit: Iraq is the ultimate strategic reserve.

Iraq is the volcanic-co2 of peak oil denial.

Sure Iraqs exports have been lower than if Saddam hadn't suffered war with Iran, Kuwait/US&allies, UN sanctions, and again US&allies. But its exports haven't been nothing,

They've been consciously suppressed, go and look further back in this thread, ever since oil was first discovered there. The big oil companies took control of Iraq's oil and stopped production growth. Production in Iraq was denied investment, information was suppressed, exploration prevented, nationalist governments overthrown to keep control of the oil and to keep production in Iraq down, all before Saddam was put in charge. Saddam who started as a CIA agent hired to kill Qasim.

and how much oil is there supposed to be there?

113bil. according to BPs 2009 statistical review. (theres a good summary of OPECs 1980s reserve revisions controversy at that link too, one among many reasons to think oil exporting nations and corporations over-estimate their reserves).

To this day Iraq's oil fields haven't been properly explored.

Okay, but 113bil.barrels, big number. How many days global supply is that, at 85million barrels a day consumption? 3.6 years. Whoop de do.

Okay, lets follow their pipedream. Assume there is some vast lake of secret oil under Iraq, enough to make up for declines in production from North Sea, Vietnam, Australia, Indonesia, US, Columbia, Nigeria, etc and stop the peak being now.

1. does that mean oil will never peak?

2. what mysterious breed of businessman has appeared that it can put off its greed far into the future? Never before have i seen its like, the rule i observe is 'get it now, get it cheap, leave nothing'. Yet for the Iraq=strategic reserve theory to stand up, the responsible elites must be deferring reward decades into the future at the cost of political capital, blod and gold that if nothing else has an opportunity cost. For a reward decades in the future? I know of no precedent.

This, from the man who thinks oil companies pump flat out to lower the price of their sole product and viciously compete with each other at the expense of profits. So what's more likely: planning for long term profits or just reducing your profits immediately and permanently?

[wintler2]

iraq iraq iraq

and how much oil is there supposed to be there?

And are you currently pro or anti peak?

To this day Iraq's oil fields haven't been properly explored.

So maybe there is less there than you think. Your source is.. ?

..So what's more likely: planning for [someone elses] long term profits or [profiting here and now]?

I'm sure you just accidentally misrepresented me, so i fixed that for you.

[stickdog99]

what mysterious breed of businessman has appeared that it can put off its greed far into the future? Never before have i seen its like, the rule i observe is 'get it now, get it cheap, leave nothing'. Yet for the Iraq=strategic reserve theory to stand up, the responsible elites must be deferring reward decades into the future at the cost of political capital, blod and gold that if nothing else has an opportunity cost. For a reward decades in the future? I know of no precedent.

Iraq is the precedent. Iraq has sat there, never achieving oil production higher than 2.5 million barrels but for three incredibly short periods in its history each all followed by US-caused or stoked warfare.

You still don't seem to appreciate the difference between distribution and production. What do the distributors, who control the end market while rigging prices to whatever prices the local markets will bear, care about the cost of production?

[wintler2]

A quick thankyou to all yous deniers, especially loopystickdogmorganooknows, i've been trying to get a high-stat thread going for years

[wintler2]

what mysterious breed of businessman has appeared that it can put off its greed far into the future? Never before have i seen its like, the rule i observe is 'get it now, get it cheap, leave nothing'. Yet for the Iraq=strategic reserve theory to stand up, the responsible elites must be deferring reward decades into the future at the cost of political capital, blod and gold that if nothing else has an opportunity cost. For a reward decades in the future? I know of no precedent.

Iraq is the precedent. Iraq has sat there, never achieving oil production higher than 2.5 million barrels but for three incredibly short periods in its history each all followed by US-caused or stoked warfare. ..

So how much oil do you think is there? More than Saudi Arabia? More than Vanuatu? how much oil, how does it affect global depletion rate?

[stickdog99]

..Working on nothing but a pinch of federal grant, university tenure and VC money, solar technology ..

BP Solar logo

timeline of over 150years research on photovoltaics

Care to explain your point?

It seemed to me you were implying PV was some sort of new and short-of-cash industry.

The BP Solar logo illustrates that PV has been big business for decades, unsurprising considering v.high tech v.high energy intensity of manufacture.

The timeline illustrates that alot of people have been working on PVs for a long time.

What I meant to imply is that most of the individuals making the recent breakthroughs have been working on shoestring budgets.

If and when oil actually runs out, Big Oil will do everything in its power to replace oil with another resource whose distribution can controlled just as utterly.

Until then, Big Oil needs to perpetuate the myth that Big Oil is our only possible salvation while keeping any viable, decentralized renewable options that emerge from reaching critical mass. Big Oil thanks you for working so diligently on its behalf.

[wintler2]

Until then, Big Oil needs to perpetuate the myth that Big Oil is our only possible salvation while keeping any viable, decentralized renewable options that emerge from reaching critical mass. Big Oil thanks you for working so diligently on its behalf.

Strawman, b-o-r-i-n-g.

So how much oil do you think is there [in iraq]? More than Saudi Arabia? More than Vanuatu? how much oil, how does it affect global depletion rate?

[stickdog99]

http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/imag ... MATION.gif

If an official US graphic says it ...

[wintler2]

iraq iraq iraq iraq iraq ...

So how much oil do you think is there [in iraq]? More than Saudi Arabia? More than Vanuatu? how much oil, how does it affect global depletion rate?

[/quote]

[stickdog99]

So how much oil do you think is there?

A shitload of literally cheaper than dirt oil.

How much energy do you think shines on the earth from the sun, blows around the earth in the form of wind, flows over the earth in the form of water, and radiates from the earth in the form of geothermal energy?

[wintler2]

So how much oil do you think is there?

A shitload of literally cheaper than dirt oil.

WTF, this isn't primary school, surely you've heard of numbers? Surely you've got sources of information on which you've based your pages and pages of insistent blathering about Iraq ... ?

Look, go google one now, any one at all, and post it, and we'll take it from there .. okay?

If you have trouble with that google thing, pm stephen morgan, he seem stuck at the same hurdle (see top of page).

So how much oil do you think is there in Iraq?

[stickdog99]

So how much oil do you think is there?

A shitload of literally cheaper than dirt oil.

WTF, this isn't primary school, surely you've heard of numbers? Surely you've got sources of information on which you've based your pages and pages of insistent blathering about Iraq ... ?

Look, go google one now, any one at all, and post it, and we'll take it from there .. okay?

If you have trouble with that google thing, pm stephen morgan, he seem stuck at the same hurdle (see top of page).

While I'm busy learning google, maybe you could learn about this new cool thing called hypertext linking?

[Stephen Morgan]

Ooh: flashy.

Or, wintler could go back to the link I posted to the history of Iraqi oil extraction, which contains estimates of Iraqi oil up to 400bb, a bit higher than in the flashy link, and an explanation of the lack of exploration on which to base comprehensive figures.