Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

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Postby chiggerbit » Sun May 03, 2009 1:25 pm

I can't help but think this bug still has the potential to grow some long legs. Check this out: it appears a traveler to Mexico has returned home to Canada and infected a herd of swine in Alberta with H1N1, rather than the other way around.

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRel ... MW20090502

" OTTAWA, ONTARIO, May 02 (MARKET WIRE) --
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) indicates that it has found
H1N1 flu virus in a swine herd in Alberta. The safety of the food supply
is not affected and Canadian pork continues to be safe to eat.

It is highly probable that the pigs were exposed to the virus from a
Canadian who had recently returned from Mexico and had been exhibiting
flu-like symptoms. Signs of illness were subsequently observed in the
pigs. The individual has recovered and all of the pigs are recovering or
have recovered.

While further testing is needed to more fully characterize the virus, the
CFIA is taking a precautionary approach. The herd has been placed under
quarantine, and the Agency is working with public health colleagues to
determine the most appropriate next steps to ensure that public and
animal health remain protected. The chance that these pigs could transfer
virus to a person is remote.........."



http://www.theprovince.com/Health/Canad ... story.html

"....It was the first time the Canadian Food Inspection Agency had reported a case of the virus being transmitted from a human to a pig in Canada.


"It's rare but we have said from the beginning of this flu outbreak that this might happen," Domenech said.


He said FAO was awaiting the results of tests conducted in at least two laboratories in the United States and Canada, where strains of the virus isolated in humans in Mexico had been inoculated into pigs.


The Canadian Food Inspection Agency said the infected herd was quarantined pending more testing and the chance the pigs could transfer the virus to humans was remote. It said all the infected pigs had recovered or were recovering.,,,,,"




The reason this is significant is that a very good many of the workers in hog confinements here in the USSA are from Mexico, and they do travel home to visit periodically. They also tend not to seek out help until the situation gets serious, fearing getting nabbed by immigration.

Iowa's governor has closed down the school district in Marshall County, Iowa due to 6 probable cases of swine flu there. I see in comments on the article about it in the Des Moines Register that he's getting a lot of criticism for "over-reacting", but my guess is that it's been the prompt actions of the fed and state health departments that have helped to avert an epidemic. This still has the potential to turn into something serious if people become too complacent. Of course, if it does become a pandemic, the government will be blamed for not acting quickly enough, probably by the same people who are accusing it of fear-mongering right now.
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Postby seemslikeadream » Sun May 03, 2009 6:32 pm

http://www.democraticunderground.com/di ... 89x5588971



Swine flu might be a conspiracy... video proof inside *fake masks*
Posted by TwixVoy on Sun May-03-09 05:19 PM

Guys before the reactionary "conspiracy theory" post please keep in mind that I generally do NOT support such ideas.... nor do I post that there is a conspiracy about anything.

I have been watching a person on Youtube for months. He always posts about the economy. He drives around the country documenting the part of the country that have been hit hard. He has been doing this for months. I have NEVER seen him make a video about a conspiracy, or make any videos that seem "far out there". His focus is entirely video documenting economic events. If you look at his video history you will see he is legit, and has only been going around the country recording places like Detroit from an economic stand point.

Anyway - recently he made a video saying he was interested in documenting the swine flu. So he went to Mexico with intent of doing a video recording of the sick people, etc to document it. His first videos were expecting to find people sick, he was worried about getting sick him self but he wanted to document this.

I was watching his videos earlier. Today he posted two which are VERY interesting. I will link all of his videos in Mexico in this post. I STRONGLY suggest you watch them in order, and then watch the last two. He could be completely wrong, and I would be interested in peoples opinions.... but please WATCH this footage before coming to conclusions. I don't THINK he would waste his time and money going from the Northern United States doing a video series on Detroit to traveling to Mexico just to make a bull shit series of videos.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7cFUwsU ... A6&index=0 *First video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaZveTjp ... A6&index=1 *Second video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AUyvouV ... A6&index=2 *Third video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vmcLJNv ... A6&index=3 *Fourth video (federal troops)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_gkYwBt_lA *Fifth video when he realizes something is off

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbHPjpgHwtY *Fake masks
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Postby Percival » Sun May 03, 2009 9:19 pm

Well it has officially hit home for me, literally, well almost...we now have one official case here in Sedona, Arizona where I live and I believe 13 confirmed cases now in the entire state of Arizona. The confirmed case here in Sedona is a man that I know very well and he lives 3 houses down from me, his wife called to tell us that he has been diagnosed with swine flu and they have no idea how he may have come in contact with it as they have done no traveling and are artists who work from home and rarely leave the house except to shop a few times a week.

Will report more as I get more information.
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Postby Percival » Sun May 03, 2009 9:21 pm

seemslikeadream wrote:http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5588971



Swine flu might be a conspiracy... video proof inside *fake masks*
Posted by TwixVoy on Sun May-03-09 05:19 PM

Guys before the reactionary "conspiracy theory" post please keep in mind that I generally do NOT support such ideas.... nor do I post that there is a conspiracy about anything.

I have been watching a person on Youtube for months. He always posts about the economy. He drives around the country documenting the part of the country that have been hit hard. He has been doing this for months. I have NEVER seen him make a video about a conspiracy, or make any videos that seem "far out there". His focus is entirely video documenting economic events. If you look at his video history you will see he is legit, and has only been going around the country recording places like Detroit from an economic stand point.

Anyway - recently he made a video saying he was interested in documenting the swine flu. So he went to Mexico with intent of doing a video recording of the sick people, etc to document it. His first videos were expecting to find people sick, he was worried about getting sick him self but he wanted to document this.

I was watching his videos earlier. Today he posted two which are VERY interesting. I will link all of his videos in Mexico in this post. I STRONGLY suggest you watch them in order, and then watch the last two. He could be completely wrong, and I would be interested in peoples opinions.... but please WATCH this footage before coming to conclusions. I don't THINK he would waste his time and money going from the Northern United States doing a video series on Detroit to traveling to Mexico just to make a bull shit series of videos.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7cFUwsU ... A6&index=0 *First video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaZveTjp ... A6&index=1 *Second video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AUyvouV ... A6&index=2 *Third video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vmcLJNv ... A6&index=3 *Fourth video (federal troops)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_gkYwBt_lA *Fifth video when he realizes something is off

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbHPjpgHwtY *Fake masks



Would anyone care to sum these videos up for me briefly, I dont have speakers on this computer and cant get to my home PC for a few more days as I am on the road right now. I would like to know what these videos say in light of my above post.
Last edited by Percival on Sun May 03, 2009 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby StarmanSkye » Sun May 03, 2009 10:05 pm

This is very odd -- He arrives on a national holiday Friday, and over the weekend, all he can really note is that schools and many businesses are closed? That all working people are 'required' to wear paper masks (like coffee filters, eh?) watching Federal Police dispensing masks and disinfectants, speculating that police are shutting down demonstrations?

And he stays up till 3am Saturday, without a room, running around the city breathing Mexico City's smog, getting frazzled.

Not very objective, or even halfway planned-out. Did he stoke-up on Vitamin C and D, or other immune boosters?

I'm not impressed. This 'report' IMHO is worse than useless -- It's greatly misleading and NOT objctive in the slightest. His not being fluent in Spanish is a HUGE obsticle to accurate analysis -- how can he possibly ask questions?

Fail ...
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Postby freemason9 » Sun May 03, 2009 10:06 pm

Percival wrote:
seemslikeadream wrote:http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5588971



Swine flu might be a conspiracy... video proof inside *fake masks*
Posted by TwixVoy on Sun May-03-09 05:19 PM

Guys before the reactionary "conspiracy theory" post please keep in mind that I generally do NOT support such ideas.... nor do I post that there is a conspiracy about anything.

I have been watching a person on Youtube for months. He always posts about the economy. He drives around the country documenting the part of the country that have been hit hard. He has been doing this for months. I have NEVER seen him make a video about a conspiracy, or make any videos that seem "far out there". His focus is entirely video documenting economic events. If you look at his video history you will see he is legit, and has only been going around the country recording places like Detroit from an economic stand point.

Anyway - recently he made a video saying he was interested in documenting the swine flu. So he went to Mexico with intent of doing a video recording of the sick people, etc to document it. His first videos were expecting to find people sick, he was worried about getting sick him self but he wanted to document this.

I was watching his videos earlier. Today he posted two which are VERY interesting. I will link all of his videos in Mexico in this post. I STRONGLY suggest you watch them in order, and then watch the last two. He could be completely wrong, and I would be interested in peoples opinions.... but please WATCH this footage before coming to conclusions. I don't THINK he would waste his time and money going from the Northern United States doing a video series on Detroit to traveling to Mexico just to make a bull shit series of videos.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7cFUwsU ... A6&index=0 *First video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaZveTjp ... A6&index=1 *Second video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AUyvouV ... A6&index=2 *Third video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vmcLJNv ... A6&index=3 *Fourth video (federal troops)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_gkYwBt_lA *Fifth video when he realizes something is off

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbHPjpgHwtY *Fake masks



Would anyone care to sum these videos up for me briefly, i dont have speakers on this computer and cant get to my home PC for a few more days as I am on the road right now. I would like to know what these videos say in light of my above post.


Here's a brief summary of the videos. It begins somewhat dramatically with one guy (too afraid to "go down there" to Mexico City) sending another brave guy (risking his very life) to go take some videos at Ground Zero in Mexico City.

He sees many federal troops; he didn't state, however that federal troops are a common sight in Mexico, especially now in light of the emergency status involving the drug wars.

However, not seeing bodies in the street or people coughing up blood, he decides that there is no epidemic after all, and that it is all a sham

Feel free, anyone, to correct this summarization if you see fit.
The real issue is that there is extremely low likelihood that the speculations of the untrained, on a topic almost pathologically riddled by dynamic considerations and feedback effects, will offer anything new.
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Postby chiggerbit » Sun May 03, 2009 10:25 pm

Cripes, I see that Jeff had already posted an article about the worker giving the herd of pigs the flu. Sorry about that. It's pretty significant, though.
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Postby Percival » Sun May 03, 2009 10:52 pm

freemason9 wrote:
Percival wrote:
seemslikeadream wrote:http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5588971



Swine flu might be a conspiracy... video proof inside *fake masks*
Posted by TwixVoy on Sun May-03-09 05:19 PM

Guys before the reactionary "conspiracy theory" post please keep in mind that I generally do NOT support such ideas.... nor do I post that there is a conspiracy about anything.

I have been watching a person on Youtube for months. He always posts about the economy. He drives around the country documenting the part of the country that have been hit hard. He has been doing this for months. I have NEVER seen him make a video about a conspiracy, or make any videos that seem "far out there". His focus is entirely video documenting economic events. If you look at his video history you will see he is legit, and has only been going around the country recording places like Detroit from an economic stand point.

Anyway - recently he made a video saying he was interested in documenting the swine flu. So he went to Mexico with intent of doing a video recording of the sick people, etc to document it. His first videos were expecting to find people sick, he was worried about getting sick him self but he wanted to document this.

I was watching his videos earlier. Today he posted two which are VERY interesting. I will link all of his videos in Mexico in this post. I STRONGLY suggest you watch them in order, and then watch the last two. He could be completely wrong, and I would be interested in peoples opinions.... but please WATCH this footage before coming to conclusions. I don't THINK he would waste his time and money going from the Northern United States doing a video series on Detroit to traveling to Mexico just to make a bull shit series of videos.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7cFUwsU ... A6&index=0 *First video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaZveTjp ... A6&index=1 *Second video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AUyvouV ... A6&index=2 *Third video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vmcLJNv ... A6&index=3 *Fourth video (federal troops)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_gkYwBt_lA *Fifth video when he realizes something is off

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbHPjpgHwtY *Fake masks



Would anyone care to sum these videos up for me briefly, i dont have speakers on this computer and cant get to my home PC for a few more days as I am on the road right now. I would like to know what these videos say in light of my above post.


Here's a brief summary of the videos. It begins somewhat dramatically with one guy (too afraid to "go down there" to Mexico City) sending another brave guy (risking his very life) to go take some videos at Ground Zero in Mexico City.

He sees many federal troops; he didn't state, however that federal troops are a common sight in Mexico, especially now in light of the emergency status involving the drug wars.

However, not seeing bodies in the street or people coughing up blood, he decides that there is no epidemic after all, and that it is all a sham

Feel free, anyone, to correct this summarization if you see fit.


Thanks for that my fellow traveler. Appreciate it!
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Postby Percival » Sun May 03, 2009 10:53 pm

chiggerbit wrote:Cripes, I see that Jeff had already posted an article about the worker giving the herd of pigs the flu. Sorry about that. It's pretty significant, though.


Are all the pigs bitching among themselves that there is a human flu epidemic threatening their lives?
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Postby chiggerbit » Sun May 03, 2009 11:09 pm

Are all the pigs bitching among themselves that there is a human flu epidemic threatening their lives?


There's some ominous oinking about a need for mass slaughter.
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Elderberry Extract

Postby Cosmic Cowbell » Sun May 03, 2009 11:37 pm

Just an FYI that I hope is found helpful...(Pardon if it's been posted earlier)

The effect of Sambucol, a black elderberry-based, natural product, on the production of human cytokines: I. Inflammatory cytokines.


Sambucus nigra L. products - Sambucol - are based on a standardized black elderberry extract. They are natural remedies with antiviral properties, especially against different strains of influenza virus. Sambucol was shown to be effective in vitro against 10 strains of influenza virus. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized study, Sambucol reduced the duration of flu symptoms to 3-4 days. Convalescent phase serum showed a higher antibody level to influenza virus in the Sambucol group, than in the control group. The present study aimed to assess the effect of Sambucol products on the healthy immune system - namely, its effect on cytokine production. The production of inflammatory cytokines was tested using blood - derived monocytes from 12 healthy human donors. Adherent monocytes were separated from PBL and incubated with different Sambucol preparations i.e., Sambucol Elderberry Extract, Sambucol Black Elderberry Syrup, Sambucol Immune System and Sambucol for Kids. Production of inflammatory cytokines (IL-1 beta, TNF-alpha, IL-6, IL-8 ) was significantly increased, mostly by the Sambucol Black Elderberry Extract (2-45 fold), as compared to LPS, a known monocyte activator (3.6-10.7 fold). The most striking increase was noted in TNF-alpha production (44.9 fold). We conclude from this study that, in addition to its antiviral properties, Sambucol Elderberry Extract and its formulations activate the healthy immune system by increasing inflammatory cytokine production. Sambucol might therefore be beneficial to the immune system activation and in the inflammatory process in healthy individuals or in patients with various diseases. Sambucol could also have an immunoprotective or immunostimulatory effect when administered to cancer or AIDS patients, in conjunction with chemotherapeutic or other treatments. In view of the increasing popularity of botanical supplements, such studies and investigations in vitro, in vivo and in clinical trials need to be developed.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11399518
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Re: Elderberry Extract

Postby monster » Sun May 03, 2009 11:52 pm

Cosmic Cowbell wrote:Sambucol Elderberry Extract and its formulations activate the healthy immune system by increasing inflammatory cytokine production.


This is okay for ordinary flus, but for viruses that kill by cytokine storm, this is actually a Bad Thing.

The reason pandemic flus kill healthy people preferentially, is because of their strong immune systems - the immune system goes into overdrive and it ends up killing them.
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Re: Elderberry Extract

Postby ninakat » Mon May 04, 2009 12:07 am

monster wrote:
Cosmic Cowbell wrote:Sambucol Elderberry Extract and its formulations activate the healthy immune system by increasing inflammatory cytokine production.


This is okay for ordinary flus, but for viruses that kill by cytokine storm, this is actually a Bad Thing.

The reason pandemic flus kill healthy people preferentially, is because of their strong immune systems - the immune system goes into overdrive and it ends up killing them.


I've read this elsewhere too. Question is, could Sambucol be helpful if only taken when symptoms first arise -- or, is that still going to be a Bad Thing?

I swear by that stuff. I rarely get colds anymore, and haven't had the flu since I don't know when -- probably when I was a child. The moment I start feeling the beginnings of a cold, I take two teaspoons of Sambucol and it never develops. At least, that's been the case for several years now.
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Postby AlicetheKurious » Mon May 04, 2009 4:01 am

FWIW, here's a quote from the 2008 Annual Report of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., of Japan:

FY 2009 Outlook
Increased Sales and Income Expected in FY 2009
Due to Higher Sales of Growth Drivers

In FY2009, we expect revenues of ¥400 billion, up 22.4%
year-on-year, driven by further growth of our major
products. We project a 7.6% increase in product sales
excluding Tamiflu to ¥337.3 billion.

For the year, we forecast sales of Tamiflu to reach ¥53.0
billion, up 531.0%
, due to expected resumption of government
stockpiling in FY2009 and the ongoing recovery
of the prescription rate for seasonal influenza. ...


http://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/pdf/annua ... _12_04.pdf

Hmmm..
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Postby justdrew » Mon May 04, 2009 4:12 am

AlicetheKurious wrote:FWIW, here's a quote from the 2008 Annual Report of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., of Japan:

FY 2009 Outlook
Increased Sales and Income Expected in FY 2009
Due to Higher Sales of Growth Drivers

In FY2009, we expect revenues of ¥400 billion, up 22.4%
year-on-year, driven by further growth of our major
products. We project a 7.6% increase in product sales
excluding Tamiflu to ¥337.3 billion.

For the year, we forecast sales of Tamiflu to reach ¥53.0
billion, up 531.0%
, due to expected resumption of government
stockpiling in FY2009 and the ongoing recovery
of the prescription rate for seasonal influenza. ...


http://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/pdf/annua ... _12_04.pdf

Hmmm..


It's been mentioned elsewhere that the last big batch of tamiflu bought during the bush years was three years ago. The self-life is three years, so they may have simply been assuming that the stockpile would be replenished. but now it looks like the old tamiflu won't have to just be junked, at least it'll get shipped around before it 'goes bad' - maybe even be used.
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