Peak oil a hoax? Prove it.

[Joe Hillshoist]

Oil exploration is declining everywhere its not a 100%+ tax break, possibly something to do with fact oil discovery has been declining for nearly forty years.

I am not gonna start arguing with you about this Wintler, basically cos I agree with what you are saying and where you are coming from.

I have a mate who works doing seismic surveys looking for oil. He was in SA, but when he came back last time he had a promotion, so he now has his own crew in Libya.

I was just talking to him about this whole peak oil thing, not so much is it, but when, based on his opinion, looking for the stuff.

He told me the thing they were working on, surveying a deposit in Saudi, was looking bigger and bigger. They were looking at a deposit that had as much oil as had so far come out of saudi arabia. That sounded a bit far out to me, I was thinking bullshit, and said so, and he was adamant that it was a huge new untapped deposit, and I guess he's the bloke over there looking for it. He'll be back in march. Remind me then if you want some further details. btw I think he works for a German co. not sure tho.

ps never got to melb for chrissie this year, but I am hoping (foolishly?) to be there before the footy season starts, so I'll catch up for a beer then if you want (and we get it together to get there.)

[wintler2]

Cheers JoeH, i'll buy the beer if your mate does find a giant field (anyhting over a billion barrels isn't it?) i'll be that relieved. I knew Aramco had massively increased its exploration effort, some say its because Ghawars water cut is still rising and/or nobody wants/can refine any more of their sour heavy crude than at present.

By year-end, Saudi Arabia will have 120 rigs operating in the country, up from 85 last year and 54 in 2004. ..
http://www.energybulletin.net/22662.html (archiving Houston Chronicle article)

Chatter is that drillrig owners are shipping rigs from the declining North Sea and too-risky Gulf of Mexico to S.Arabia, no trivial matter when they rent out at hundreds of thousands of dollars per day. According to the USGS2000 SA should have found lots more oil already since 2000.. so why is their exploration effort increasing?

*edit - oops, i obviously imagined Libya into SA, sorry Joe, i know i'd been wanting to mention Aramco's burst of activity. I don't mind where yr friend finds it, and Libya is it seems safer these days than SA.

[5E6A]

The world has an abundant supply of oil, and high petrol prices are just the reality of a globally-traded commodity, ExxonMobil Australia chairman Mark Nolan says.

"Oil will peak - that is a geologic fact. "

-David J. O'Reilly, Chairman and CEO Chevron Corp
26th Annual Oil & Money Conference
London, England
September 20, 2005

http://www.chevron.com/news/speeches/20 ... reilly.asp

"I believe our industry is at a strategic inflection point, a unique place in our history."

"The most visible element of this new equation is that relative to demand, oil is no longer in plentiful supply. The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending."

"125 years to consume the first trillion barrels of oil, and we'll likely consume the next trillion within just 35."*

"Simply put, the era of easy access to energy is over."

-David J. O'Reilly, Chairman and CEO, ChevronTexaco Corporation

Keynote address to the 24th annual CERAWeek Conference
Houston, Texas
February 15, 2005

http://www.chevron.com/news/speeches/20 ... reilly.asp



*If you consider that the USGS numbers show with a 95% confidence rating that there are just over 2 Trillion total extractable in resource, this is in effect a statement that we have 35 years to convert everything that currently runs on oil to some other source of energy.

[Trifecta]

"Simply put, the era of easy access to energy is over." chaching!

Someone/s just made a fast buck on this. Keep the wool over the populaces eyes and make a mint, pure and simple.

Just have to watch the markets freefall when wigs and politicians shout oil problems, or storms, close of production, or a nice big fire etc etc. Bush/Blair/Howard et al farts and the money men break out the champagne...its not that hard to see.

[stickdog99]

Peak (Big) Oil (Profits)

[Joe Hillshoist]

Cheers JoeH, i'll buy the beer if your mate does find a giant field (anyhting over a billion barrels isn't it?) i'll be that relieved. I knew Aramco had massively increased its exploration effort, some say its because Ghawars water cut is still rising and/or nobody wants/can refine any more of their sour heavy crude than at present.
Quote:
By year-end, Saudi Arabia will have 120 rigs operating in the country, up from 85 last year and 54 in 2004. ..
http://www.energybulletin.net/22662.html (archiving Houston Chronicle article)
Chatter is that drillrig owners are shipping rigs from the declining North Sea and too-risky Gulf of Mexico to S.Arabia, no trivial matter when they rent out at hundreds of thousands of dollars per day. According to the USGS2000 SA should have found lots more oil already since 2000.. so why is their exploration effort increasing?

Yeah thats what ole matey said, rigs were moving in all the time, at the cost of 12 million each to set up.

Hes gone to libya now, dunno whats happening out there.

But he did say that the last 8 to 10 years has been non stop, and there is a lot of land left to do. they were in the empty quarter. Perhaps part of it was the technological improvements in actually mapping the geology of the area I think.

The truth is I usually see him at the local shop well after beer o clock, so most of our conversations are a bit ... well fuzzy.

But thinking about it the move en masse to the last bit of SA thats unexplored, from everywhere, indicates that things are drying up everywhere else doesn't it?

OT - for yourr amusement or whatever other of the weirdos from our local said something very odd one day. He said does the same thing to the earth that it does to car engines.

Thats why earthquakes are increasing in number and intensity.

I didn't actually think they were, but it makes you wonder about the foolishness of our energy use from a completely different perspective.

[wintler2]

"Simply put, the era of easy access to energy is over." chaching!

Someone/s just made a fast buck on this. Keep the wool over the populaces eyes and make a mint, pure and simple.

Just have to watch the markets freefall when wigs and politicians shout oil problems, or storms, close of production, or a nice big fire etc etc. Bush/Blair/Howard et al farts and the money men break out the champagne...its not that hard to see.

Peak (Big) Oil (Profits)

Like awesome, wow dudes, you two make such well researched and coherent arguments, i'm like, totally blown away, y'know?

[Trifecta]

Lets take cigaretes as an example of how it works. For year governments were in total collusion with the tobacco companies, they knew cancers and other related diseases were directly linked, but hey, great taxes ensued...then when the ground swell of research and scientific evidence proofed beyond doubt, it could no longer be denied...they have all started to switch to draconian measures of ban enforcement, which initself creates other revenue streams and adds to the collective of the nanny state/big bro....plus the added bonus of new drugs to cure the addicts and the impotent ones...coincendentally all these drugs are flouride based

The model is just one example of how they will rachet up the global warming and peak oil meme...problem-solution....i.e taxes up your arse and draconian enforcement

But the mere fact, that when anyone creates more of the oil/global warming fear, the stock prices rise and fall like a horses draws...follow the money.

Sure I could spend weeks populating this thread with evidence of the scam...but it is so obvious whats the point? it is juist another form of controlling the intocrinated.

[wintler2]

...
Sure I could spend weeks populating this thread with evidence of the scam...but it is so obvious whats the point? it is juist another form of controlling the intocrinated.

Hey who needs evidence anyway when you can just swap everything-is-a-conspiracy cliches with stickydog99. I can't even fake annoyance OI, you are such a joke.

-

Just like to point out that this thread is now at end of pg 3 and noone has yet posted any concrete suggestion on how this 'peak oil hoax' is being perpetrated. How is Big Oil reserve data faked? Why are some oil companies publicly blase and others publicly concerned? Why are the Saudis going crazy exploring if their production isn't weakening? Are Iran & Russia 'in on it', and how?

Not a single serious attempt to disprove that world oil extraction will peak or that will peak soon.
Dwell on that, and on the empty vessels that echo their own unproven cliches.

[stickdog99]

So let's say that Peak Oil is not a scam. So what? What's the big doomsday scenario? Oil prices steadily rise so people begin to seriously invest in alternatives. And?

Are you trying to convince us to give up our (nonexistent) SUVs or something? OK, I'm convinced. You want us to move to decentralized renewable technology? OK, I'm convinced.

If oil were about to go up to $150 to $200 a barrel with nothing to replace it in the energy sector, why WOULDN'T Big Oil be investing in all sorts of expensive exploration everywhere on the globe? And how could the Demopublicans hold out against Artic Refuge and offshore rig drilling?

The simple fact of the matter is that it's simply a far better "investment" for Big Oil to send the US military to secure the Middle East's huge and largely untapped resources that cost only $1 to $2 a dollar a barrel to extract and much less to refine than any other conceivable fossil fuel alternative. US tax payers and soldiers foot the bill, and Big Oil makes a killing.

It's not that I dismiss Peak Oil so much as that I don't understand the focus on it. The real problem is not that oil is running out -- it's that Big Oil is running things. The solution is breaking Big Oil's strangehold on energy distribution with decentralized renewable energy sources. Sounding the Chicken Little Peak Oil alarm -- even if true -- plays into Big Oil's hands by making the tacit assumption that Big Oil's interests are in some manner aligned with ours.

[Joe Hillshoist]

winter s op

I'm not at all trying to prove that PO will mean the end of civilisation or that its the one burning issue of the day, but the offhand dismissal of the issue by folk who obviously know sweet f.a. has gone beyond a joke. Put up or shut, friends.

I think the whole point of wintlers post is simply that he's over hearing peak oil is a scam.

It's not that I dismiss Peak Oil so much as that I don't understand the focus on it. The real problem is not that oil is running out -- it's that Big Oil is running things. The solution is breaking Big Oil's strangehold on energy distribution with decentralized renewable energy sources. Sounding the Chicken Little Peak Oil alarm -- even if true -- plays into Big Oil's hands by making the tacit assumption that Big Oil's interests are in some manner aligned with ours.

To be honest I was thinking this might be why wintler started this thread in the first place, and in the context of then being able to say something along the lines of:

The solution is breaking Big Oil's strangehold on energy distribution with decentralized renewable energy sources.

That seems to be one his concerns.

One thing the focus on peak oil might do that ignoring it won't, is bring the idea of renewablews into the publics mind a bit more prominently. The sort of public who don't really care about issues like renewable energy but will go with the idea if they have to face the reality that they don't have an option.

Unlike you stickydog, alot of people don't share the viewpoint that big oil is that bad. Don't ask me how, cos I don't understand why or how.

The fact that at some point oil will peak in production, and that there is a steady increase in energy demand and a steady nothing in the way of replenishing oil that is refined and then burnt or used for some industrial process, is the only thing that will force some people to face up to the fact that clean renewable eneregy is the only truly viable option for coping with the increasing energy demands that humans are making.

"Peak oil is a scam" IMO works against the idea that really we should, as a species be focussing on clean renewable energy, and possibly being a bit less wasteful.

[wintler2]

Ditto everything JoeH said. I'd happily burn 'Big Oil' to the ground today, if only i and at least two billion others (of the 6.5+ bil currently sharing this planet) weren't dependant upon it (and it wasn't a waste of energy). We don't have to be dependant, we could live without it, but not tomorrow and not if we want personal cars, cheap holidays, cheap year-round salads, and cheap widgets made by slave labour in China delivered to our doorstep.

Cheap & easy energy, for which oil is the exemplar, is what makes these and much else possible, and we do not have a replacement. You may not find current oil prices cheap (they have after all been rising for five years), but try pushing your car to the shop or carving a toothbrush out of wood to aid perspective. We have worse/harder/scarcer/more expensive substitutes, but no replacements, and its going to hurt even us white folks eventually (not assuming all readers white, just naming my privelidge - i'm not suffering the way commuters and cooks in Africa are at current oil prices).

It is tempting to launch into the debate between energy technologies, or between slow energy descent scenarios (eg. permaculturist David Holmgren or HT Odum) versus Jay Hansons dieoff and everything in between, but thats not my purpose here or i suspect even a very useful pasttime. Instead i have a romantic notion that basic knowledge of the fundamentally finite nature of oil (and arguably nearly all other resources) will help ground peoples decision making, or at least those who think rationally. Actually its an unshakeable conviction that finite-earth comprehension has that effect, i'm just not sure there is alot of rationality around.

Before i count my chickens, remember the thread was a challenge to 'its a hoax' parrots to say how, and i'm still interested if anyone has even a credible theory.

Whilst awaiting that, the eggs i'd like to offer are:
-oil reserves are finite and extraction will therefore peak (possibly more than once, as in USSR>Russia) and decline.
-timing of the global peak is uncertain, but there is real and compelling evidence that it will occur within 10 years, and may have already.
These are the bones of the peak oil argument, and i'm open to discussing them, but i reserve the right to defer to elsewhere, where they have been covered many, many, many times.

Stickydog99, your 'so what' scenario and 'simple fact of the matter' does not really follow, except in the ranks of hawkish lobbyists in the US & aligned deatheaters worldwide. If Volvo http://www.energybulletin.net/11759.html can see the writing on the wall and adapt then cashed-up energy companies can too. Unless of course they and their sugar daddies (thats us) are too too dumb, in which case natural selection will sort things out eventually- 'Nature bats last'.

[JoseFreitas]

To a large extent PO is not really about supply, but about demand. If the oil demand today were, say, around 60 million barrels/day, no one would be panicking, right? The fact of the matter (I believe) is that the problem is demand, and in the bacground the problem is a culture of economic growth at all costs that has become rampant in the globe, and underpins all of the economic system nowadays.

I would go so far as to say (this is an exaggeration, bear with me) that if someone discovered an even cheaper and far more abundant energy source than oil, it would be a disaster. Now, I am capable of agreeing that there might be scenarios where this would be false, but the point is that the system of growth at all costs that has come to dominate the world will destroy it if it continues. We can argue wether it will destroy it when we reach 8 billion people at half the living standards of the US, 25 billion people at 1/10 the living standards, or whatever, but it seems clear that there has to be an upper limit, and this upper limit is tied also to the resources this pop consumes. Therefore, the discussion of renewable energies is in fact a stupid one if it doesn't simultaneously discuss population control and living standards.

There is an upper limit to the amount of people the Earth can sustain with renewable resources and it is also tied to the living standards and energy consumption these people will have. I personally believe we are already way over that limit (and we are seeing the signs of the stress the environment is being put under all around us), which scares me since it means I tend to believe in more of the "crashtype" scenarios than the slow descent ones.

Also, how would you engineer the reduction in energy and resources (soil, water, minerals, wood, everything?!) without killing billions of people? This is the primery reason I think it would still be a better bet to find some new, cheap, energy source, not so that we could perpetuate growth ad infinitum, but to buy us time to bring down the population to the point where it can live with decent standards on totally renewable energy and resources.

To come back to the original more technical point of the thread: I attended the ASPO PO conference last year (in Lisbon, where I live) and talked to head of oil research at Petrobras, who is in charge of deep sea/far away from the shore drilling operations (something at which Brasilians are way ahead of most other countries). He basically said a remark that I think encapsulates the problem in a nutshell: "If PO weren't real, why the hell would we be searching for oil at this cost and at these difficult locations?".

PO is real, wether it comes today, in 10 years or 20. The issue is wether "we" will be able to do anything about it and take action to transition to a new form of organization not predicated on the paradigm of continuous, forever, growth.

Best

[Joe Hillshoist]

To a large extent PO is not really about supply, but about demand. If the oil demand today were, say, around 60 million barrels/day, no one would be panicking, right?

Thats part of the issue too, about inspiring people to look for other sources.

I would go so far as to say (this is an exaggeration, bear with me) that if someone discovered an even cheaper and far more abundant energy source than oil, it would be a disaster. Now, I am capable of agreeing that there might be scenarios where this would be false, but the point is that the system of growth at all costs that has come to dominate the world will destroy it if it continues.

This is a very good point btw.[/quote]

[stickdog99]

As long as replacement power sources are non-polluting, renewable, and highly localized and decentralized, what's the problem?

The sun still is still shining (just about everywhere) and the wind is still blowing (just about everywhere).

Imagine that cold fusion were true and everybody could heat and power their homes and run their clean transportation for about $1 a year. What would be the problem again? The fact that massive human depopulation would be harder to justify?