Whether it 'scarcity engineered by design', or 'peak oil' is correct per say, doesn't change the consequences of the last 130 years of petrochemical based industry that underpins contermpory society. Those being that we, collectively exist (and for a large part) subsist/prosper due to petrochemicals: our race's destiny is locked into a cycle of dependence.
I'm fully down with the idea that, as others have proposed; the major elite powers are operating to an occult agenda based around keeping major supply sources of oil under wraps/under debilitating warfare, to drive price hikes and prevent an increase in growth of consumption (prolonging any downward curve on a Hubbard model of EROEI vs Supply).
Let’s assume for sure that they are: Oil will still run out eventually as present rates of consumption continue or grow slowly. Prices will rise as extraction cost go up.
Let’s assume that they don't (drill baby drill): Oil will still run out as present rates of consumption continue or grow. Prices will rise as extraction cost go up.
For those that believe that the above will not occur in either scenario... I don't know what to say. Good luck with your though processes I guess.
Secondly: The problem we face (assuming the above is true either way) is that there is no technological solution to either problem. Solar panels, roof top gardens (how much roof area, is necessary to provide full, year round subsistence + work calories for one adult human btw?), communal living, Thorium, liquid salt reactors, magic free-energy beans, etc.. aren't going to solve the central problem of population growth. Sorry. Is a nice thought but won't work.
Example: Magic energy beans are discovered and distributed to every household in the world. Non-polluting and infinite energy output. Drives cars and widescreen tvs - everything. Population keeps growing. Boom - we 'Easter Island' the world even more quickly than we're doing currently.
We are a swarm of locusts - as a race, so far, incapable of reversing our growing consumption of finite (or consuming faster than they can self replenish) resources.
Yes we should cast off oil immediately for many reasons but one of them (the ugliest truth but perhaps the most pertinent, long term) is that it would halt and maybe reverse population growth - cheep energy supply, particularly petrochemicals, is a catalyst for growth. I don't mean to come all Rockefeller, Kissinger or Prince Phillip but, is we continue to keep growing as a race, in size then we will doom everyone.
And if not, it will be a less beautiful, fauna/flora diverse, less hospitable, happy place to be. Sorry.
For reading in support of this idea:
See Professor Bartlett lecture on Aritmatic, population and Growth.
Transcript:
http://www.albartlett.org/presentations ... glish.htmlIn the summer of 1986, the news reports indicated that the world population had reached the number of five billion people growing at the rate of 1.7% per year. Well, your reaction to 1.7% might be to say “Well, that's so small, nothing bad could ever happen at 1.7% per year.” So you calculate the doubling time, you find it’s only 41 years. Now, that was back in 1986; more recently in 1999, we read that the world population had grown from five billion to six billion . The good news is that the growth rate had dropped from 1.7% to 1.3% per year. The bad news is that in spite of the drop in the growth rate, the world population today is increasing by about 75 million additional people every year.
Now, if this current modest 1.3% per year could continue, the world population would grow to a density of one person per square meter on the dry land surface of the earth in just 780 years, and the mass of people would equal the mass of the earth in just 2400 years
Bacteria grow by doubling. One bacterium divides to become two, the two divide to become 4, the 4 become 8, 16 and so on. Suppose we had bacteria that doubled in number this way every minute. Suppose we put one of these bacteria into an empty bottle at 11:00 in the morning, and then observe that the bottle is full at 12:00 noon. There's our case of just ordinary steady growth: it has a doubling time of one minute, it’s in the finite environment of one bottle.
I want to ask you three questions. Number one: at what time was the bottle half full? Well, would you believe 11:59, one minute before 12:00? Because they double in number every minute.
Well, every once in awhile we run into somebody who says we shouldn’t worry about the problem, we can solve it. In this case, we can solve it by growing corn, distilling it into ethanol, and run all the vehicles in the US on ethanol. Lets just look what he says, he says today ethanol production displaces over 43 ½million barrels of imported oil annually. That sounds pretty good doesn't it, until you think. First question you’ve got to ask: 43 ½million barrels, what fraction is that of US vehicle consumption in a year? The answer is, it’s 1%.
You would have to multiply corn production devoted to ethanol by a factor of 100 just to make the numbers look right. There isn't that much total agricultural land in the United States. There’s a bigger problem. It takes diesel fuel to plough the ground to plant the corn, to make the fertiliser to make the corn grow, to tend the corn, to harvest the corn. It takes more energy to distill it. You finally get a gallon of ethanol, you will be lucky if there’s as much energy in the gallon as it took to produce it. In general, it's a loser.
Chief amongst these optimists was the late Dr Julian Simon, formerly professor of economics and business administration at the University of Illinois, and later at the University of Maryland. With regard to copper, Simon has written that we will never run out of copper because “copper can be made from other metals.” The letters to the editor jumped all over him, told him about chemistry. He just brushed it off: “Don’t worry,” he said, “if it’s ever important, we can make copper out of other metals.”
Now, Simon had a book that was published by the Princeton University Press. In that book, he’s writing about oil from many sources, including biomass, and he says, “Clearly there is no meaningful limit to this source except for the sun’s energy.” He goes on to note, “But even if our sun was not so vast as it is, there may well be other suns elsewhere.” Well, Simon’s right; there are other suns elsewhere, but the question is, would you base public policy on the belief that if we need another sun, we will figure out how to go get it and haul it back into our solar system? (audience laughter)
Video:
http://old.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461(edited for interweb deleting part of the post during submission)