Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

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Postby chiggerbit » Thu May 14, 2009 3:10 pm

Aha, this is interesting:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent ... 87599.html

Suit filed over swine flu death

12:00 AM CDT on Thursday, May 14, 2009


San Antonio Express-News


BROWNSVILLE – The husband of the first U.S. resident to die from the global swine flu outbreak has filed a lawsuit against Smithfield Foods, the U.S. owner of the Mexican pig farm where some believe the virus originated.

Judy Trunnell, 33, did not have underlying ailments that contributed to her May 5 death, despite state health officials' reports of a "chronic" respiratory condition, husband Steven Trunnell said Tuesday.

"She was in perfect health," attorney Marc Rosenthal said.

A petition filed this week in state district court in Cameron County seeks permission to conduct depositions for a possible wrongful death claim against the $12 billion company.

Trunnell, who taught special education at an elementary school, was eight months pregnant when she was admitted to a hospital with flu symptoms. Doctors were able to save her baby daughter after she slipped into a coma, but not her.

Her death came about a week after that of a Mexico City toddler who became the first person to die in the United States from the flu strain. A Washington state man with reported heart problems and viral pneumonia last week became the third.

News reports traced the first cases to the Mexican town of La Gloria in the state of Veracruz, where Smithfield is part owner of the world's largest pig farm.

"We believe that the evidence may show that [the pig farm] was ground zero for swine flu," Rosenthal said.

Smithfield Foods had no comment on the lawsuit, spokeswoman Keira Ullrich said.
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu May 14, 2009 5:40 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/healt ... ml?_r=1&em

Many Swine Flu Cases Have No Fever



By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN
Published: May 12, 2009

Many people suffering from swine influenza, even those who are severely ill, do not have fever, an odd feature of the new virus that could increase the difficulty of controlling the epidemic, said a leading American infectious-disease expert who examined cases in Mexico last week.
Enlarge This Image

Nicky Loh/Reuters

In April, medical workers at Taoyuan Airport, in northern Taiwan, checked passengers for fever.

Fever is a hallmark of influenza, often rising abruptly to 104 degrees at the onset of illness. Because many infectious-disease experts consider fever the most important sign of the disease, the presence of fever is a critical part of screening patients.

But about a third of the patients at two hospitals in Mexico City where the American expert, Dr. Richard P. Wenzel, consulted for four days last week had no fever when screened, he said.

“It surprised me and my Mexican colleagues, because the textbooks say that in an influenza outbreak the predictive value of fever and cough is 90 percent,” Dr. Wenzel said by telephone from Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, where he is chairman of the department of internal medicine.

While many people with severe cases went on to develop fever after they were admitted, about half of the milder cases did not; nearly all patients had coughing and malaise, Dr. Wenzel said.

Also, about 12 percent of patients at the two Mexican hospitals had severe diarrhea in addition to respiratory symptoms like coughing and breathing difficulty, said Dr. Wenzel, who is also a former president of the International Society for Infectious Diseases. He said many such patients had six bowel movements a day for three days.

Dr. Wenzel said he had urged his Mexican colleagues to test the stools for the presence of the swine virus, named A(H1N1). “If the A(H1N1) virus goes from person to person and there is virus in the stool, infection control will be much more difficult,” particularly if it spreads in poor countries, he said.

The doctor said he had also urged his Mexican colleagues to perform tests to determine whether some people without symptoms still carried the virus.

He also said he had examined patients and data at the invitation of Dr. Samuel Ponce de León, who directs Mexico’s national vaccination program.

Dr. Wenzel said that an unusual feature of the Mexican epidemic, which complicates the understanding of it, was that “in recent months five different influenza viruses have been circulating in Mexico simultaneously.”

Pneumonia rates at one of the hospitals Dr. Wenzel visited, the National Institute for Respiratory Diseases, reached 120 per week recently compared with 20 per week during the past two years, suggesting a possible relation to the swine flu.

The pneumonias that the flu patients developed did not resemble the staphylococcal lung infections that were believed to be a common complication in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, Dr. Wenzel said.

He said the two Mexican hospitals were well prepared for an outbreak of respiratory disease. Mexican doctors activated a program to allay anxiety among staff members, offering the staff information, a hot line, psychological support and medical examinations.

“This aspect of epidemic response is not well appreciated in the United States in my estimation, yet is critical for success,” Dr. Wenzel said. “We haven’t put nearly enough into managing fear among health workers.”
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Postby vigilant » Thu May 14, 2009 7:43 pm

This entire flu business is nothing more than a huge scam. Testing supplies are short, not because they cannot be provided, but because the business interests behind it all do not want masses of people tested.

Were all these people tested it would be proven beyond question that they do not have this particular flu, which would hurt sales of prevenative measures, such as Tamiflu and vaccines, which is what this is all about in the first place.

Roughly 60 people have died, which is a far cry from a pandemic. These same people, in my opinion, have also been 'dubiously' associated with this flu. Not to mention that this flu, scientifically speaking, is not at all what it was first claimed to be.

Governments across the world are buying Tamiflu, etc...as planned and expected. The scam is a success, and this whole business will fade away just as the bird flu hoax did. Reports to the contrary will be bogus, just as most of these staged events are right now.

At practically every turn, this story has turned out 'not' to be what is was reported and claimed to be, and it will continue to be so, in spite of the staged media events for profit and sales.
The whole world is a stage...will somebody turn the lights on please?....I have to go bang my head against the wall for a while and assimilate....
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Postby §ê¢rꆧ » Thu May 14, 2009 7:59 pm

I hope so vigilant. I've been following this thread with interest. There's a lot good info here. I've had what feels like the flu for a weeks now. I'm thinking I've been cross infected with more than one flu, because it should not be lasting so long. It hasn't been pleasant. I have no idea and doubt it is 'swine flu' afflicting me, but it's not fun to read about H1N1 and speculate.
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Postby pepsified thinker » Thu May 14, 2009 10:13 pm

§ê¢rꆧ wrote: I've had what feels like the flu for a weeks now.


Us too.

We've (so far) had what sounds like the milder version: coughing and malaise [cue: Carter jokes].

But then again, we had our youngest checked after he ran a fever and he has strep throat--so maybe we're just thinking 'flu', while other bugs are infecting us.

Still--I've been seeing kids miss a day then back, then out again, then back, then out, for a while now. And that's my pattern too (one of the beautiful things about a unionized teaching job: calling in sick/getting a sub). And there are a LOT of kids absent--a fellow teacher sent out an email saying she'd had 17 kids out sick. That's from a high school situation, so she probably sees 125 or so kids a day, but still. And coming back to my own household--we had 4 of the 5 of us sick a few days ago. Now it's just 3 of the 5. We've never had anything like that before.

What you're saying about a hoax to sell tamiflu--I don't doubt that those who'd profit from such would do such, but I don't think this is such.

--for one thing, unless you want to add a further twist of govt./some other agency starting 'fake' flu-like germs in circulation, there're too many people somehow involved--too many testing sites, and the flu is so widely studied/understood that I'd guess there are a lot of people who could spot bogus info, if such was being posted.
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu May 14, 2009 10:24 pm

If it's a hoax in order to sell Tamiflu, then why are doctors in Marshall County, iowa being told to not give the med unless absolutely necessary, due to concerns that the bug will become resistant? It doesn't make sense.

I'd be interested in hearing if anyone reading here has blood tests done which indicate a very low (too low)white cell count and a (sorry, don't know the language) high blood clotting count (?). I know someone with this condition, probably not related to this, but not sure.
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Postby monster » Thu May 14, 2009 10:40 pm

Linda Moulton Howe podcast:

Is 2009A/H1N1 Outbreak A Herald Wave?
"I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline."
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu May 14, 2009 10:58 pm

"I would expect the infection rate to be more intense". Huh, infection rate is already very intense in Marshall County.
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu May 14, 2009 11:13 pm

It's an area that climate-wise is drier and cooler than here....


From an earlier link:

However, this seasonal difference in flu incidence is related to humidity contrasts between summer and winter, rather than temperature differences. This was demonstrated in a recent study by Oregon State University researchers1, who showed that the low humidity of wintertime air, both indoors and outdoors, explains the higher incidence of flu in the winter.


EXCEPT that this virus is spreading at incredible infection rates here in Iowa at a time which is VERY humid. I just don't see how it could be the humidity. Vitamin D, yes, but not humidity.
Not that I know what I'm talking about. But it just isn't adding up.
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu May 14, 2009 11:33 pm

I wonder if NYC has dry humidity at this time of year. Not that I know the first thing about NY's climate at any time of the year.


http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/ ... TE=DEFAULT

NYC closing schools for another swine flu outbreak

By SARA KUGLER and ADAM GOLDMAN

Associated Press Writers





NEW YORK (AP) -- New York City has closed three schools in response to a swine flu outbreak that has left an assistant principal in critical condition and sent hundreds of kids home with flu symptoms, in a flare-up of the virus that sent shock waves through the world last month.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg said that four students and the assistant principal have documented cases of swine flu at a Queens middle school. More than 50 students have gone home sick with flulike symptoms at the school, he said. At another middle school in Queens, 241 students were absent Thursday. Dozens more were sick at an elementary school.

The Health Department said the assistant principal from the Susan B. Anthony middle school is on a ventilator, marking the most severe illness in the city from swine flu to date. The students who have fallen ill in this latest surge of illness appear to be experiencing mild symptoms, similar to routine flu.

The assistant principal, identified by colleagues as Mitch Weiner, may have had pre-existing health problems, the mayor said. In many other swine flu cases that turned critical, patients had pre-existing conditions.

The mayor said that the sick assistant principal may have had pre-existing health problems. In many other swine flu cases that turned critical, patients had pre-existing conditions.

Bloomberg said that three schools - with more than 4,000 students altogether - would be closed for at least a week because "there are an unusually high level of flulike illnesses at those schools."

"There are documented cases of H1N1 flu at one of them," the mayor said, using the formal name for swine flu.

New York City's first known cases of swine flu appeared in late April, when hundreds of teenagers at a Roman Catholic high school in Queens began falling ill following the return of several students from vacations in Mexico, where the outbreak began.

At first, the virus appeared to be moving at breakneck speed. An estimated 1,000 students, their relatives and staff at the St. Francis Preparatory School fell ill in a matter of days. A limited number of kids had confirmed cases of swine flu because the Health Department tested only a small amount of students.

City health officials became aware of the outbreak on April 24. The school closed and health officials began bracing for more illnesses throughout the city.

But the outbreak then seemed to subside. Additional sporadic cases continued to be diagnosed, but the symptoms were nearly all mild. The sick children recovered in short order. St. Francis reopened after being closed for a week.

The middle school with the confirmed cases is two miles from St. Francis.

People at the school said students started going home sick on Tuesday and Wednesday, alarming parents.

"I'm worried," said Dino Dilchande, whose sixth-grade son goes to the school. "The city should have taken more precautions. We should have been notified earlier."

At the Susan B. Anthony, administrators posted a sign on the door from the Health Department informing students and teachers that the school would be closed for a week. The school is in the Hollis section of Queens, a neighborhood known for producing several rappers including the group Run-DMC.

A knock on the door of an address for a Mitch Weiner in the neighborhood of the school went unanswered.

Dr. Isaac Weisfuse, a deputy commissioner of the health department, said investigators are trying to learn more about why the disease has spread erratically, moving quickly through a few schools but slowly everywhere else.

"We're trying to answer some of those questions," he said.

Schools are a good incubator for illness in general, he said, because space is tight and youngsters often don't practice the best hygiene.

Across the country, most of the people getting the illness have been young. Some experts have speculated that older people might have some immunity to the virus because of genetic similarities to more common types of flu.

At the start of the flu outbreak in the United States, government health officials recommended that schools shut down for two weeks if there were students with swine flu. But when the virus turned out to be milder than initially feared, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention dropped that advice but urged parents to keep children with flu symptoms home for a week.

So far, the virus has not proved to be more infectious or deadly than the seasonal flu.

CDC officials said schools may decide to close if there is a cluster that's affecting attendance and staffing.

---
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Postby chiggerbit » Thu May 14, 2009 11:56 pm

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Postby stickdog99 » Fri May 15, 2009 2:48 am

My newest burning question is this:

Assuming you wished to rid the world of a certain percentage of its population, would you

a) foment a false panic and distribute a death inducing "cure" to those who dutifully line up to get their inoculations

or

b) promote and distribute an actual preventative and then release a bug to kill those who refused the state sanctioned cure?



In case you are wondering, yes, it's great being me.
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Postby lightningBugout » Sun May 17, 2009 11:20 pm

First NYC swine flu death 55yo Asst. Principal of a Junior High. Otherwise healthy, got aggressive treatment, still died fast.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/05162009/ne ... 169754.htm
"What's robbing a bank compared with founding a bank?" Bertolt Brecht
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Postby chiggerbit » Mon May 18, 2009 10:06 am

Came across this site while looking for updates on the flu situatiopn. After the discussion here about the immune over-reaction being believed to be part of the danger with this particular flu, I wondered what you all thought about the advertized products..


http://www.wellnessresources.com/health ... DAodIFNVsg


Ok, edt to say I see that at least one article addresses this issue.
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Postby chiggerbit » Mon May 18, 2009 10:50 am

In February of this year, a 3-year-old boy in Iowa caught a flu from sick pigs. Iit turned out not to be contageous from human to human.


http://www.cnsnews.com/PUBLIC/Content/A ... rcid=47394

CDC: Iowa Boy Caught Swine Flu from Pigs in February--But Not Same Dangerous Strain That's Come from Mexico
Thursday, April 30, 2009
By Pete Winn, Senior Writer/Editor



Not every case of swine flu is related to the recent outbreak in Mexico.

Sometimes swine flu is just swine flu.

Case in point -- the April 17 issue of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report” contains the following entry:

“A case of human infection with a novel swine influenza A virus was reported by the Iowa Department of Public Health during the week ending February 28, 2009.

The official federal health publication goes on to report: “A male aged 3 years was infected with a swine influenza A (H1N1) virus. An investigation revealed that the child had close contact with ill pigs. The child has fully recovered from the illness, and no additional cases were identified among the child’s contacts or other persons exposed to the ill pigs. This is the third human infection with swine influenza virus identified in the United States this influenza season.”

Is this Iowa case, then, part of the same swine flu outbreak that is affecting Mexico and elsewhere?

No, it’s not, according to the CDC.

“It does sound, on the surface, exactly like the swine virus we’re talking about now (in the Mexican outbreak), but it isn’t,” CDC spokesman Dave Daigle told CNSNews.com Wednesday.

“That case involved what we call the U.S. strain of swine influenza,” Daigle told CNSNews.com. “Those cases are rare. We’ve had about 12 cases over the last few years. Of those 12, 11 had direct or indirect contact with swine. The other one -- we just don’t have enough information about it to know for sure.”

Daigle underscored the fact that “we don’t see a lot of humans catching swine flu” from sick pigs.

“It is very rare in the U.S., but we do see some cases that circulate -- two to three a year -- and we usually can document contact with swine,” Daigle added.

Dr. Patricia Quinlisk, state epidemiologist and medical director of the Iowa Department of Public Health, said the case involving the 3-year-old isn’t even special, though the state did report it to the CDC.

“The one that the (child) had this year was a routine swine influenza strain that we’ve known about for a long time and we’ve seen somewhat regularly pop up in the United States,” Quinlisk said. “There was nothing unique about it.”

How do we know for sure that cases like the one in Iowa aren’t part of the Mexico strain? It was easy to determine, according to the CDC’s Daigle.

“We do a genetic sequencing on the isolates, and so the (strain) we’re seeing now (in the Mexico outbreak) does not have the U.S. strain of swine flu inside of it,” the CDC’s Daigle told CNSNews.com. “That’s what makes it so easy for us. (The Mexico strain) has European- and Asian-lineage swine flu in it. That’s the first time we’ve seen that in the U.S.”

The deadly strain in Mexico is unlike any other strain, he said.

“It has what we call ‘a genetic footprint’ from an avian, from a human and from European-and Asian-lineage swine,” Daigle added.

At the beginning of the Mexican outbreak, though, labs couldn’t even test for the type associated with the Mexican strain.

He explained: “Typically, you go to your doctor, and he gives you a rapid influenza test. If you have flu, it will come up A or B. That test then goes to a state health laboratory, and the state health laboratory will pin it down further. They can test for a whole range of influenza viruses.”

With the Mexico-associated outbreak, only one lab – a CDC-affiliated lab in Canada – was able to identify the current strain.

“In this case, when it was coming back to the state health labs, it was coming back as ‘Untypeable’ because it was something we haven’t seen,” Daigle said.

Labs have since been given the proper “reagents” to enable them to test for the Mexican strain.

In the case of the 3-year-old Iowa boy, Quinlist said health officials discovered his swine flu only because the state was testing for other reasons.

“The only way we picked up this one is that we have a special surveillance system, where when we get a certain percentage of people in Iowa that get the flu, we test them to see whether the virus and the vaccine match,” she told CNSNews.com.

“It’s not that we were looking for swine flu, it’s just that we happened to pick up this one, because we were testing the virus itself.”

The Iowa health officer said the incidence of people getting swine flu from infected pigs is somewhat rare – but it’s also routinue.

“To be honest, most of the time we never find them,” Quinlisk said. “Most the time people aren’t very sick, so they don’t go to the doctor, and even if they do go to the doctor, they say, ‘Oh you’ve got the flu.”

Moreover, most of the time, she said, avian flu really occurs only in birds, human flu only in people and swine flu only in swine.

“Every once in awhile, a person can get a swine flu, or a person can get an avian flu, but it usually doesn’t go very far because we are not the right host for it – it’s not meant for us. Maybe one person, or two people get sick, but it just stops, because it can’t replicate itself in humans.”

What makes the Mexican strain so dangerous, Daigle said, is that it is being transmitted from person to person – not pig to person.

“There’s the potential for a pandemic, because now we’re seeing a strain that we have not seen before, that has obviously gone – well, we have more to learn, but it is likely to have gone -- from swine to human, and now it is going from human to human,” he said. “That makes us very concerned.”

Ironically, Quinlisk announced Wednesday afternoon that Iowa now has two bona fide reported cases of the Mexican strain of swine flu A(H1N1) in the state.
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