Canada election watch

[Feilan]

^^^ re: the great public pension swindle - i'd say you put that right where it belongs - this is gonna be one mega marathon election watch (5 more years!) - the mill needs it's grist.

re: Saul - happy indeed to be of service. He is quite the rigorous intuitive if you ask me ... I first heard him think out loud some years ago when he delivered the Massey lectures in '95: The Unconscious Civilization. Most Canadians would know him as the guy married to Adrienne Clarkson, our 26th Governor General.

He is also known for wearing hats with a certain je ne sais quoi...

[Jeff]

A heartening interpretation of the results. Against my nature I may even dare to hope it's the correct one.

Canada's real electoral map: a surge for the left

...the NDP is the only party officially affiliated with labour and unofficially with the social movements. Over the past ten years the combined corporate vote has steadily declined and the NDP vote increased--not because of what happened inside Parliament but what happened outside.

The two biggest gains for the NDP in the past ten years happened in 2004 (after the anti-globalization and anti-war protests of 2001-2003, when the NDP gained 1 million votes and increased their popular vote by 4%) and in this past election (after the economic crisis, mass protests in Wisconsin and ongoing revolutions across North Africa and the Middle East, when the NDP gained 2 million votes and increased their popular vote by 12%). Over the past decade, these movements outside Parliament have depleted the combined corporate vote inside Parliament from 78% to 58%, a significant drop of 20%.

...

Moreover, if we compare the votes for the NDP with the combined corporate vote, there was a net shift to the NDP in 216 ridings, or 70%. Even in the Tory stronghold of Alberta there was a net shift towards the NDP in a quarter of the ridings (and an increase in vote in all but one riding). The resulting map is majority orange, not blue.

...

A decade of mobilizations have eroded the corporate vote, and inspiration from Cairo to Wisconsin have shifted people's consciousness to a left alternative--catapulting the NDP into Official Opposition. If we can continue building pan-Canadian mass movements and respect Quebec's right to self-determination, and if the NDP can unite with and help build these movements, we can expose how weak and unstable Harper's majority is, and bring the change we all want.

[Feilan]

^^^ on that note: http://nationaldayofaction.ca/

... I still think the math that brands a full 40% of Canadians in support of prime sinister Harper is a little too generous. That aside -

MAY 14 - NATIONAL DAY OF ACTION FOR ELECTORAL REFORM

Only 40 percent of Canadians supported our government in the May 2 election, and yet we wound up with a Conservative majority. The fact that Stephen Harper now controls Parliament after gaining only 1.8 percent more of the popular vote than in 2008 is a testament to the arbitrary and antiquated nature of Canada’s Parliamentary system.

We need an electoral process in which everybody’s vote counts. We need a government that represents us.

#dayofaction @dayofaction2011

All demonstrations to be held at 2pm local time.

Montreal — Berri Sq.
Ottawa — Parliament Hill
Vancouver — Vancouver Art Gallery
Toronto — Queen’s Park
Calgary — Harry Hays Building
Halifax — Province House
Charlottetown — Province House
Kelowna — The Sails, Central Park
Whitehorse — Elijah Smith Building

... we will need many of these, and a lot more action besides that. It's time to roll up our sleeves and get busier.

[Feilan]

In a few cases the time or venue has changed, so in case someone hanging around in here is planning to attend somewhere out there - I pass along the update. The email from Fair Vote Canada says that these rallies are being organized by students :

May 13, 2011...

http://nationaldayofaction.ca/

#dayofaction @dayofaction2011

All demonstrations to be held at 2:00 pm local time except Toronto at 3:00 pm CHANGE.

Montreal — Berri Sq.
Ottawa — Wellington & Elgin CHANGE
Vancouver — Vancouver Central Library CHANGE
Toronto — Queen’s Park
Calgary — Harry Hays Building
Halifax — Province House
Charlottetown — Province House
Kelowna — The Sails, Central Park
Whitehorse — Elijah Smith Building
St. John's — Colonial Building, Military Rd.

Fair Vote Canada (FVC) is participating in these events, and will supply speakers in Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Vancouver.

FVC, Canada’s national citizens’ movement for fair voting reform, is a broad, multi-partisan coalition that, through their online petition, the Declaration of Voters’ Rights, is calling upon the House of Commons to “immediately undertake a public consultation to amend the Canada Elections Act” and then to “quickly implement a suitable form of proportional representation.”

[Jeff]

Good to see the Fair Vote initiative.

It is discouraging, though, how electoral reform initiatives get trounced in referenda in Ontario (more than 60% opposed in 2007) and BC (more than 70% in 2009). I can't imagine a national referendum would provide a different result.

On the other hand, why should this subject, and virtually nothing else, be held hostage to referendum?

Other election news: one less Conservative seat thanks to a recount. Now 166/103.

[Jeff]

And so it begins...

Harper government moving to end party subsidies

By Althia Raj, Postmedia News May 20, 2011 2:49 PM

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government will move quickly to cut the financial legs out from under its political opponents by moving to end the per-vote party subsidy in its June budget, Postmedia News has learned.

"We want political parties to raise funds directly from their supporters and not the taxpayers. So as soon as we can get that passed, that process will begin," Democratic Reform Minister Tim Uppal told Postmedia news.

Uppal said he couldn't discuss whether the government plans a weaning-off process for political parties. He said ministers were "still finalizing all these things."

Sources say the subsidy, however, will be phased out over time.

Political parties receive a large part of their funding through a subsidy of $2 per year for every vote cast in their favour in the last federal election.

Last year, the Conservatives received $10,430,835 in subsidies, the Liberals $7,275,227, the NDP $5,036,707, the Bloc Quebecois $2,763,345 and the Green party $1,877,513.

NDP leader Jack Layton said his party supports government subsidies because it keeps "big money" out of politics.

"If it passes, we will adapt to the reality (and) we will reorganize accordingly but it does make it more difficult for the democratic process really to thrive and puts money at the forefront of politics, where it should not be," Layton said.

...

Some suggest the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois are in the toughest position now: they not only lost a large chunk of their per-vote funding because of their poor election showing, but they also lost the use of many taxpayer-funded staff due to their diminished numbers in the House of Commons.

...

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/decis ... story.html

[Jeff]

Despite an institutionally relentless anti-NDP media, it should be said.

Lack of buyer’s remorse over Tories and NDP bodes ill for Liberals and Bloc

Bruce Anderson
Globe and Mail Update
Posted on Monday, May 30, 2011 8:41AM EDT

Doubtless readers have had a bellyful of horse race numbers, so I write this with trepidation. But I was curious to see what would happen to voting intention polling once the May 2 election was behind us. Would we see buyer’s remorse about the Conservative majority? About the massive increase in NDP seats or the crushing setbacks dealt to the Liberal Party and Bloc Québécois?

The answers (no, no, no and no) are evident in Harris-Decima results for The Canadian Press since the election. Over the last two weeks (a total sample of 2,000, all data gathered before the Liberals chose Bob Rae as interim leader) here is what we see:

» The Conservative Party is polling at 38 per cent, down slightly from 39.6 per cent on Election Day.

» The NDP finds 33 per cent support, compared to 30.6 per cent on Election Day.

» The Liberal Party is at 15 per cent, down from an 18.9 per cent result.

» The Bloc is at 22 per cent in Quebec; 23.4 per cent was their total on May 2.

...

» In the latest week results, the NDP are running at a new high of 49 per cent in Quebec. If all the coverage of so-called Vegas MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau was going to rattle Quebec voters, there’s no evidence that happened. If anything, Quebeckers seem pretty enthused with the sense of freshness of their representation in Ottawa.

» In Ontario, the NDP is at 32 per cent, seven points behind the Conservative Party, with the Liberals dropping to 19 per cent, six points below their result on election night.

» Among female voters, the NDP leads at 37 per cent nationally, compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives, and a stunning 16 per cent for the Liberal Party.

» Among men, the Conservatives are at 42 per cent, the NDP at 30 per cent and the Liberals at a record low of 14%.

...

So far, if there is no honeymoon evident for the Conservatives, there's certainly no hangover. For the NDP, there is more romance than remorse in these latest numbers.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/pol ... rom=sec368

[Jeff]

Just getting underway now; live stream here.

Beyond the Ballot Box: Strategizing the next four years

A roundtable discussion with:

Rathika Sitsabaiesan, NDP MP Scarborough-Rouge River
Judy Rebick, Writer/Activist
Peggy Nash, NDP MP Parkdale-High Park
Pamela Palmater, Centre for Indigenous Governance, Ryerson University
Adam Shedletzky, Co-founder of leadnow.ca
Grace Edward Galabuzi, Dept of Political Science & Public Administration

The forum will be moderated by Winnie Ng, Gindin Chair and Rodney Diverlus, VP Equity RSU

co-sponsored by
CAW-Sam Gindin Chair in Social Justice & Democracy
Ryerson Students Union
rabble.ca

Purposes of the forum:
1.to debrief on the federal election,
2. to make sense of the new politial reality;
3. to strategize for transformative change.

[Jeff]

FWIW, and because this is probably the most relevant thread in which to dump the link, the new issue of Turn Left, published by the NDP Socialist Caucus, is online here.

‘To survive, the NDP has to turn left,’ diehards tell Layton

BILL CURRY
Globe and Mail Friday, June 3, 2011

After voters placed the NDP squarely in the mainstream of Canadian politics, Jack Layton must now face a convention where some party diehards are urging a sharp left turn.

...

Mr. Weisleder, the socialist caucus chair, rejects the idea that Mr. Layton’s electoral success shows more moderate policies are the path to victory.

“I think the election on May 2 sent a very clear message: the voters rejected the Liberal Party and the NDP should not strive to become a substitute Liberal Party. That’s the road to ruin,” he said in an interview. “To survive, the NDP has to turn left and offer Canadians and in particular working people, an alternative to the corporate agenda.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/pol ... le2045763/

[DrVolin]

There just aren't that many working people left. And they are mostly right.

[Jeff]

There just aren't that many working people left. And they are mostly right.

If only the dead could vote. Or the walking dead would.

The debate on extending the Libya mission comes up this week. The NDP needs to say No, if for no other reason than to sustain my enthusiasm for the Official Opposition. But there are also other reasons.

[Feilan]

Canada Post back-to-work bill heads to Senate

The Conservative bill ordering 48,000 postal employees back to work cleared the House of Commons on Saturday night after a 58-hour NDP filibuster and several failed opposition efforts to win changes.

The House gave third reading to the bill shortly after 8 p.m. by a vote of 158-113 and then adjourned for summer.

I wonder if the prime sinister and the governor of wisconsin are facebook friends? I bet they're putting their heads together on some new lyrics for that 'imagine' tune by that guy ...

"Imagine there's no unions -
We do it every day.
No more bullshit from the working class,
no labour rights getting in ourrrrrrrrrrrrrr way!

Imagine all the people -
Locked down when we sayyyyyyyyyyy -
You-who-whoooo-oo-ooo,
You may sayyyy I'm a fascist,
But I'm not the only one.
We hope someday you'll join us,
If not - we've got shock troops and we've got guns!" ..............

(deepest apologies to the Lennon - I blame the cold meds and today's reality tunnel for such dark and putrid satire...)