Supply Chains

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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:07 am

It's a death cult, a full-scale ruling-class war on life. They've pricked the planet, and now they are determined to see billions starve and freeze. If all else fails, they won't stop at nuclear war. They have their ratlines, their bunkers, and their bunkered wealth.

Ukraine conflict: Oil price soars to highest level since 2008

By Peter Hoskins, Business reporter. Published 3 hours ago

... Brent crude - the global oil benchmark - spiked to above $139 a barrel, before easing to around $130.

Energy markets have been rocked in recent days over supply fears triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine....

... "The House is currently exploring strong legislation that will further isolate Russia from the global economy," Ms Pelosi said in a letter. ...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60642786


^^Straight from the horse's lipsticked mouth. They are not going to stop. They are going to accelerate. They are playing for keeps.

Ukraine war 'catastrophic for global food'

By Emma Simpson. Business correspondent, BBC News. Published 10 hours ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60623941


Does anyone seriously imagine that the Pentagon & State Dept were underinformed about the importance of Russia & Eastern Europe to global food and fuel security?

The bastards know exactly what they are doing. They have been planning this for years.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby alloneword » Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:22 am

IAF has been consistently on it:

The food crisis is escalating: more countries are halting exports, but even as the EU converges a food crisis meeting, they refuse to relax restrictions on farmers. Similarly, the US is not waiving biofuel mandates even as grain prices explode. Christian explains that this crisis is needed to advance the agenda, and reiterates the priorities for your victory garden to insulate your family and community from this worldwide food crisis. Start growing today.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F6ilTV3rpY
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:34 am

^^ He's very good, his bluntness is admirable. I can only urge that people listen closely to what he's saying and act on it immediately. It's necessary for personal survival, but it won't be nearly sufficient unless and until millions more people wake up from the spell cast on them by the media machine and start cooperating independently in the real world.

Faith in ruling-class benevolence is still widespread, but it's sounding increasingly hysterical, it's just not sustainable, and it's going to get a lot of naive people killed..Not for no reason have the bastards spent two years isolating everyone, immobilising them, scaring them with phantoms, and addicting them to screens. It's been a softening-up operation. They are at war with us.

Hanlon's (so-called) Razor is a deadly weapon. We're ruled by slashers, wreckers and liars.

Enough.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOEqdDbpsBA
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:22 am

Here's a masterclass on Hanlon's Razor:

Fed’s Powell Says Ukraine War Creates Risks of Higher Inflation

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was likely to push up inflation, a setback to central bank expectations that price pressures would diminish in the coming months.

Because of Russia’s role in global energy and other commodity markets, “we’re going to see upward pressure on inflation at least for a while,” Mr. Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

The war, escalating sanctions by the West and other steps businesses are taking on their own to withdraw from Russia could also lead to declines in financial risk-taking that could reduce investment, he said. “We need to be alert and nimble as we make decisions in what is quite a difficult environment,” he said.

Mr. Powell, who is awaiting a Senate confirmation vote for a second four-year term, also indicated that the central bank wouldn’t tolerate a significant interval of higher inflation, even if that required interest rates to rise to levels that choked off economic growth.

Sen. Richard Shelby (R., Ala.) pushed Mr. Powell to say whether he would follow the example set in the 1980s by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who raised rates high enough to tame inflation, even though it caused a recession. “I would hope history will record that the answer to your question is yes,” said Mr. Powell.

Before a House panel on Wednesday, Mr. Powell offered an unusually explicit preview of anticipated policy action when he said he would propose a quarter-percentage-point interest-rate increase at the central bank’s meeting in two weeks amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market.

That effectively ended speculation over whether the central bank might begin raising rates with a larger, half-percentage-point increase. At the same time, he laid the groundwork for the possibility of half-point increases this summer, pushing back against the idea that more traditional quarter-point increases represent a speed limit for the Fed.

Consumer prices in January rose 6.1% from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge. Excluding volatile food and energy categories, so-called core inflation rose 5.2%, close to a 40-year high.

On Thursday, Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.), the top Republican on the banking panel, told Mr. Powell that he was concerned that the war in Ukraine would drive inflation higher. “I fully acknowledge nobody knows how this is going to play out, but I think it’s fair to say that this war has changed the risk profile a little bit with respect to inflation,” he said.

Mr. Powell concurred. He repeated his view that before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week, he expected the central bank would raise rates by a quarter percentage point at its March 15-16 meeting and to follow that initial rate rise with a series of increases this year.

“I do think it’s going to be appropriate for us to proceed along the lines we had in mind before the Ukraine invasion happened,” Mr. Powell said. “In this very sensitive time at the moment, it’s important for us to be careful in the way we conduct policy simply because things are so uncertain and we don’t want to add to that uncertainty.”

Mr. Powell said that a steep rise in oil prices over the past two weeks, if sustained, would lead to higher prices at the gas pump. While traditionally, textbooks would dictate the Fed should look past a one-time increase in prices, that could be harder right now because inflation is high.

Fed officials have grown anxious because of signs labor markets are overheating, with wage gains well above their pre-pandemic highs, and the risk that consumers and businesses will expect larger price increases in the future, which could foster persistently higher inflation.

“There’s already a lot of upward inflation pressure and additional pressure does probably raise the risk that inflation expectations will start to react in a way that is negative for controlling inflation,” Mr. Powell said.

Mr. Powell also said the Ukraine war had made him more pessimistic about the prospect for any near-term improvement in disrupted supply chains. “We’ve been waiting for that to happen, and it hasn’t happened,” he said.

Fed officials last spring and summer attributed most of the rise in inflation to supply-chain bottlenecks, which wouldn’t necessarily demand a policy response if those kinks were expected to resolve themselves in a few months. Fed officials began taking steps to withdraw stimulus last fall, and accelerated that process in December, as inflation pressures remained strong and labor markets healed rapidly. “Hindsight says we should have moved earlier…but there really is no precedent for this,” Mr. Powell said.

- https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-powel ... 1646303401

Currency reset.

Image

:thumbsup
Last edited by drstrangelove on Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:24 am

jesus, that graph...
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:29 am

Don't be alarmed. They discontinued the graph. Everything is fine. This is the new one: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:22 am

Weird trade war. Apple, Netflix, Visa and Pornhub vs Oil, Gas, Grain and Fertilizer. I wonder who'll win?

https://twitter.com/JeffWellsRigInt/sta ... 4801640454
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Tue Mar 08, 2022 7:49 pm

Biden Bans Imports of Russian Oil, Natural Gas
President Biden banned imported oil and other energy sources from Russia to punish the country as it intensified its military campaign in Ukraine, a move that will add pressure to already record U.S. gasoline prices and the economic recovery.

The U.S. immediately prohibited new Russian shipments of oil, certain petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal under an executive order Mr. Biden signed Tuesday. Washington will give companies 45 days to wind down existing contracts for Russian energy supplies, a senior Biden administration official said. The order also bars new U.S. investment in Russia’s energy sector and blocks Americans from financing foreign companies that invest in the sector.

European governments, which are far more reliant on Russian energy, took their own actions on Tuesday, though they weren’t as stringent as what the U.S. imposed. About 8% of U.S. imports of oil and refined products, or about 672,000 barrels a day, came from Russia last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Mr. Biden, who had previously resisted cutting off Russian oil, suggested the ban would likely push up gasoline prices further but said it was an important part of his campaign to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his assault in Ukraine. Russia is among the world’s biggest energy producers, and the move—on top of a host of other sanctions from the U.S. and other Western nations—is meant to cripple the country’s economy.

“This is a step that we’re taking to inflict further pain on Putin,” Mr. Biden said at the White House. “But there will be costs as well here in the United States.”

The ban primes gasoline prices to soar even higher and will likely pinch American households already being tested by the highest inflation in four decades. Economists estimate the government will on Thursday report a February inflation rate of nearly 8%, an acceleration from the prior month that would only partially capture the recent run-up in energy prices.

A wide majority of Americans, 79%, said they favored a ban on Russian oil imports even if the prohibition increased energy prices in the U.S., according to data from a new Wall Street Journal poll, while 13% said they opposed it. Though the U.S. is the world’s biggest oil producer, it still imports millions of barrels each day from other parts of the world.

Some administration advisers and allies worried privately that gasoline-price increases from the ban could be a political liability, people familiar with the matter said. But the administration began looking at the issue more seriously in recent days, as Russia continued its assault and pressure mounted from senior Ukrainian officials and members of Congress, the people said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said she would push forward Tuesday with a vote on legislation to ban the U.S. import of Russian oil and energy products, review Russia’s access to the World Trade Organization and renew the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act so that the U.S. can impose further sanctions on Russia.

Western allies also acted. The European Union said it planned to cut its imports of Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of this year, while the U.K. said it would end Russian oil imports, currently 8% of the nation’s demand, by the end of the year. The U.K. government is also exploring options to end Russian gas imports altogether.

The U.S. typically relies on Russia for only a sliver of its energy sources, and American companies had already sharply curtailed imports from the country in recent days. But the prospect of tighter global supplies further drove up prices for crude, extending a monthslong run-up caused by the geopolitical crisis and strengthening demand as countries recover from the pandemic. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose to nearly $133 a barrel on Tuesday before easing to around $128 a barrel later in the day.

Higher oil prices are already hitting consumers in their pocketbooks, particularly at the pump, as oil is the main ingredient of gasoline. The average price of a gallon of regular gas soared 55 cents over the past week to $4.17 as of Tuesday, a nominal—though not inflation-adjusted—record, AAA announced. That eclipsed the previous high of $4.11 set in summer 2008, during the severe recession caused by the housing crash.

In California, the average price of gasoline rose to $5.44. Prices are particularly high in the state because of higher gasoline taxes and environmental standards that require additional steps in the refining process, said Devin Gladden, an AAA spokesman.

Mr. Gladden said prices are bound to rise further across the U.S.

“Typically it would take a few days to ripple through the gasoline processing and manufacturing supply chain,” Mr. Gladden said. “But given how quickly we’ve seen these price increases happen and that they’ve been so steady in the past few weeks, we could see those price increases much more rapidly.”

Gasoline prices have risen 51% from a year ago, when a gallon cost an average $2.77. Under one estimate, households would spend $850 more this year, on average, compared with last year, if gasoline prices remain above $4 a gallon for most of 2022, according to Diane Swonk, chief economist at the consulting firm Grant Thornton LLP. Last year, such costs rose $940 from 2020, she said.

The higher costs could further embolden the Federal Reserve as it moves to raise interest rates, starting at its policy meeting next week, to tamp down inflation.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis and the related run-up in oil prices will slow the U.S. economic recovery this year, several economists said.

“The risk of a policy error, and therefore a U.S. recession, is rising quickly,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis, said in a note to clients.

Most economists said the economy can withstand the hit of higher energy costs without tipping into a recession.

The world’s largest economy has momentum because households have built up savings during the pandemic, Covid-19 cases have declined sharply since January, businesses are hiring aggressively and families are resuming travel and leisure activities that they had long put off.

Still, the higher energy costs will surely cause pain, particularly for the poorest households and workers that have little access to public transit and must drive to work, economists said.

At the Venice Super Petrol station on Venice Boulevard in Los Angeles, unleaded gasoline cost $5.29 for a gallon on Tuesday, slightly below the $5.51 average for the region. Troy Litke said he paid $60 for about half the gas that his Toyota Tacoma can hold.

“To fill this up would be like $120,” said Mr. Litke, who is trying to manage fuel costs by not filling the truck’s large tank every time he goes to a station.

Luana Zagami also paid for far less than a complete fill-up, spending $25.57 for 4.8 gallons in her Ford Focus.

“I was just complaining about gas prices,” she said. She added that she has to drive 26 miles every day to drop off her son at daycare and then head to the University of Southern California, where she is a Ph.D. candidate.


President Biden banned imported oil and other energy sources from Russia to punish the country as it intensified its military campaign in Ukraine, a move that will add pressure to already record U.S. gasoline prices and the economic recovery.

The U.S. immediately prohibited new Russian shipments of oil, certain petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal under an executive order Mr. Biden signed Tuesday. Washington will give companies 45 days to wind down existing contracts for Russian energy supplies, a senior Biden administration official said. The order also bars new U.S. investment in Russia’s energy sector and blocks Americans from financing foreign companies that invest in the sector.

European governments, which are far more reliant on Russian energy, took their own actions on Tuesday, though they weren’t as stringent as what the U.S. imposed. About 8% of U.S. imports of oil and refined products, or about 672,000 barrels a day, came from Russia last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Mr. Biden, who had previously resisted cutting off Russian oil, suggested the ban would likely push up gasoline prices further but said it was an important part of his campaign to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his assault in Ukraine. Russia is among the world’s biggest energy producers, and the move—on top of a host of other sanctions from the U.S. and other Western nations—is meant to cripple the country’s economy.

“This is a step that we’re taking to inflict further pain on Putin,” Mr. Biden said at the White House. “But there will be costs as well here in the United States.”

The ban primes gasoline prices to soar even higher and will likely pinch American households already being tested by the highest inflation in four decades. Economists estimate the government will on Thursday report a February inflation rate of nearly 8%, an acceleration from the prior month that would only partially capture the recent run-up in energy prices.

A wide majority of Americans, 79%, said they favored a ban on Russian oil imports even if the prohibition increased energy prices in the U.S., according to data from a new Wall Street Journal poll, while 13% said they opposed it. Though the U.S. is the world’s biggest oil producer, it still imports millions of barrels each day from other parts of the world.

Some administration advisers and allies worried privately that gasoline-price increases from the ban could be a political liability, people familiar with the matter said. But the administration began looking at the issue more seriously in recent days, as Russia continued its assault and pressure mounted from senior Ukrainian officials and members of Congress, the people said.
The price for gasoline in the U.S. hit a record high, tracking a surge in global energy markets.
Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said she would push forward Tuesday with a vote on legislation to ban the U.S. import of Russian oil and energy products, review Russia’s access to the World Trade Organization and renew the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act so that the U.S. can impose further sanctions on Russia.

Western allies also acted. The European Union said it planned to cut its imports of Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of this year, while the U.K. said it would end Russian oil imports, currently 8% of the nation’s demand, by the end of the year. The U.K. government is also exploring options to end Russian gas imports altogether.
Read live updates on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The U.S. typically relies on Russia for only a sliver of its energy sources, and American companies had already sharply curtailed imports from the country in recent days. But the prospect of tighter global supplies further drove up prices for crude, extending a monthslong run-up caused by the geopolitical crisis and strengthening demand as countries recover from the pandemic. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose to nearly $133 a barrel on Tuesday before easing to around $128 a barrel later in the day.

Higher oil prices are already hitting consumers in their pocketbooks, particularly at the pump, as oil is the main ingredient of gasoline. The average price of a gallon of regular gas soared 55 cents over the past week to $4.17 as of Tuesday, a nominal—though not inflation-adjusted—record, AAA announced. That eclipsed the previous high of $4.11 set in summer 2008, during the severe recession caused by the housing crash.

In California, the average price of gasoline rose to $5.44. Prices are particularly high in the state because of higher gasoline taxes and environmental standards that require additional steps in the refining process, said Devin Gladden, an AAA spokesman.

Mr. Gladden said prices are bound to rise further across the U.S.

“Typically it would take a few days to ripple through the gasoline processing and manufacturing supply chain,” Mr. Gladden said. “But given how quickly we’ve seen these price increases happen and that they’ve been so steady in the past few weeks, we could see those price increases much more rapidly.”

Gasoline prices have risen 51% from a year ago, when a gallon cost an average $2.77. Under one estimate, households would spend $850 more this year, on average, compared with last year, if gasoline prices remain above $4 a gallon for most of 2022, according to Diane Swonk, chief economist at the consulting firm Grant Thornton LLP. Last year, such costs rose $940 from 2020, she said.

The higher costs could further embolden the Federal Reserve as it moves to raise interest rates, starting at its policy meeting next week, to tamp down inflation.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis and the related run-up in oil prices will slow the U.S. economic recovery this year, several economists said.

“The risk of a policy error, and therefore a U.S. recession, is rising quickly,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis, said in a note to clients.

Most economists said the economy can withstand the hit of higher energy costs without tipping into a recession.

The world’s largest economy has momentum because households have built up savings during the pandemic, Covid-19 cases have declined sharply since January, businesses are hiring aggressively and families are resuming travel and leisure activities that they had long put off.

Still, the higher energy costs will surely cause pain, particularly for the poorest households and workers that have little access to public transit and must drive to work, economists said.

At the Venice Super Petrol station on Venice Boulevard in Los Angeles, unleaded gasoline cost $5.29 for a gallon on Tuesday, slightly below the $5.51 average for the region. Troy Litke said he paid $60 for about half the gas that his Toyota Tacoma can hold.

“To fill this up would be like $120,” said Mr. Litke, who is trying to manage fuel costs by not filling the truck’s large tank every time he goes to a station.

Luana Zagami also paid for far less than a complete fill-up, spending $25.57 for 4.8 gallons in her Ford Focus.

“I was just complaining about gas prices,” she said. She added that she has to drive 26 miles every day to drop off her son at daycare and then head to the University of Southern California, where she is a Ph.D. candidate.

Lawmakers and advocacy groups in numerous states, including New York, California, Ohio, Illinois and Rhode Island have proposed the suspension of some or all gas taxes or the delay of planned increases. In California, which has the highest gas tax in the nation at about 51 cents a gallon, Republicans have proposed lifting the levy for six months while Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in January proposed putting off an increase in the tax planned for July.

Consumer spending provides roughly two-thirds of economic output in the U.S. Households could cut back on shopping, travel and other discretionary spending as a result, economists said. Ms. Swonk believes output will expand at just a 1% annual rate in the second half of 2022, a sharp slowdown driven by the rise in oil.

U.S. output rose 5.6% in the final quarter of 2022 compared with the same period a year earlier, marking the strongest calendar year of growth since 1984.

Oil analysts have said that sanctions previously imposed on Russia have already discouraged banks and oil companies from buying the country’s crude, and the sharp increase in oil prices in recent days is a sign the market expects further disruptions.

Exxon Mobil Corp. , BP PLC and Shell PLC all announced plans to exit Russian operations last week. Shell went further on Tuesday, saying it would halt all spot purchase of crude from the country and phase out its other trading and business dealings.

- https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-planni ... 1646746787
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:50 pm

U.S. Moves to Deny Russia ‘Most Favored’ Trade Status
. . .

The proposed legislation would end the U.S. policy of treating Russia as a most-favored nation, a key principle of the World Trade Organization that requires member countries to guarantee equal tariff and regulatory treatment to other members.

. . .

The Group of Seven affluent democracies pledged to work toward curtailing the West’s trade with Russia and to curb its access to funding from international financial organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would prohibit the import of key goods in the iron and steel sector from Russia, which she said would deprive the Kremlin of billions of euros of export revenue.

The EU is by far the most important destination for Russia’s exports, purchasing 41% of the total value in 2019, followed by China with 13.4%, according to the WTO.

Ms. von der Leyen said the EU would also ban the export of luxury goods to Russia.

“Those who sustain Putin’s war machine should no longer be able to enjoy their lavish lifestyle while bombs fall on innocent people in Ukraine,” she said.

The U.S. action will deny Russia more than $1 billion in export revenues, a White House policy statement said, adding that the U.S. “retains the authority to impose additional import bans as appropriate.”

The U.S. also on Friday imposed restrictions on exports of luxury goods, such as watches, vehicles and jewelry, to Russia and Belarus. The U.S. export value of the products covered by the restrictions is nearly $550 million a year, the White House said.

- https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-says ... 1647013389
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby alloneword » Sat Mar 12, 2022 6:01 am

DUESSELDORF, March 10 (Reuters) - A spike in electricity prices has forced small German steelmaker Lech-Stahlwerke to halt production at its plant in Bavaria, the German state's only steel works, a company spokesperson said on Thursday.

"We are shutting down production on a daily basis," the spokesperson said, adding that power price developments would be closely watched to make short-term adjustments. "Production is not economically viable."

Lech-Stahlwerke's plant in Meitlingen produces about 1 million tonnes of steel per year and its electricity consumption is equivalent to that of a city with a population of roughly 300,000.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/steelma ... rices-soar
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby MacCruiskeen » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:04 pm

"Ich kann gar nicht so viel fressen, wie ich kotzen möchte." - Max Liebermann,, Berlin, 1933

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts." - Richard Feynman, NYC, 1966

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Re: Supply Chains

Postby Elvis » Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:11 pm

https://economics.stackexchange.com/que ... february-2

Has there really been a 170% increase in M1 money supply in the US in February 2021?

There actually was change in methodology from April to May, as FRED explains:

Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.


However, the change in methodology does not actually fully or even mainly explains the increase. Actually FRED itself released an explainer of what is behind this increase. As they state:

This increase is shown in the FRED graph above (red line), where we measure M1’s opportunity cost as the one-year U.S. Treasury yield (green line). In late February and early March of 2020, the Fed cut its policy interest rate dramatically to help ease credit conditions during the COVID-19 crisis. The resulting acceleration in the supply of M1 can be understood largely as banks accommodating an increase in people’s demand for money. However, the opportunity cost of money has remained more or less constant throughout 2020, over which time M1 growth has accelerated. What might account for this behavior?

To help answer this question, we’ll need to talk a bit about banking regulations…

One factor responsible for this behavior may be related to a change earlier this year to Regulation D: The Federal Reserve requires banks to hold reserves against checkable deposits. But the regulation does not require banks to hold reserves against savings and money market accounts, which restrict depositors to no more than six transfers or withdrawals per month. These latter accounts are highly liquid (and in the case of some money market funds, even checkable). But because they’re not as convenient as checkable deposits, they typically compensate depositors with a more attractive interest rate.

Another measure of the money supply adds these savings deposits and checkable money funds to M1: It’s known as, you guessed it, M2. From the graph, we see that the growth rate of M2 has remained relatively stable since May 2020. This suggests that the rapid acceleration in M1 since May 2020 is mainly from money moving out of the non-M1 components of M2 into M1, rather than reflecting any acceleration in the demand for transaction balances.


Indeed as you can see from the graph below (FRED), M2 (which is far more relevant economically - this is typically what economists refer to when they talk about money supply without qualification), increased much more slowly and not as much (there was about 15% increase between February 2020 and May 2020, this was because Fed decided to monetize part of the Covid stimulus see this Yale explainer or this Brookings explainer):

Image


FYI I have contacted Trading Economics and they have updated the data, mentioning that there actually was a change in methodology from April to May (I guess they refer to 2020, not 2021). –
bluenote10
Jul 23, 2021 at 20:47

@bluenote10 as I mentioned in my answer there was change in methodology that is not disputed but as the explainer from fed states this was also because banks changed some of the M2 money into M1 money, if you look at the new update in trading economics there is still jump in M1, but it is jump only in M1 (M1 is not really the money supply, it just shows few very specific components of money supply). If you care about economy-wide money supply you need to go to M2 or even broader measures (e.g. M3) –
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Jul 23, 2021 at 20:52

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Re: Supply Chains

Postby drstrangelove » Sun Mar 13, 2022 3:13 am

They discontinued M2 as well: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2

:lol:
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby Elvis » Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:33 am

“The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.” ― Joan Robinson
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Re: Supply Chains

Postby alloneword » Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:17 am

Here's an interesting post I picked up on a Russian TG chan (machine translated), that maybe gives a glimpse into how the shit-show is developing for them:

Moment of truth

Today is the time when everyone needs to realize their responsibility for the fate of our country.

The moment of truth for everyone.

Situations like this test people.

Our soldiers and officers are fighting, giving their lives for the security of Russia, for the opportunity to have a future. They save our citizens, compatriots living on the territory of the DPR, LPR and Ukraine, from nationalists.

In this difficult time, we need to be more attentive to each other. To help.

As for the challenges, united, we will overcome any.

Panic and tension in society is what Washington and NATO are waiting for, having unleashed an unprecedented economic war against us.

Many remember the 90s, stocking up on food, creating increased demand. But today is a different time. No one will be left alone with problems. Food security is assured. The excitement plays into the hands of speculators.

Let's remember: two years ago, at the beginning of the pandemic, this also happened, then everything returned to normal.

Someone gives the last, collecting humanitarian aid for the refugees of Donbass, and someone goes to wait out a difficult time abroad or, staying here, raises prices for their fellow citizens.

In no case should business profit from people, it is necessary to reconsider approaches, initiate solutions on their own that will remove problems, albeit at the cost of personal profit.

Today information is being received from the regions about the reduction in prices for diesel fuel, fertilizers, this is extremely important for the villagers, for those who are preparing for spring field work. For all of us.

This means that we will be with the necessary food products not only this year, but also for the future.

The deputies support the work of the Ministry of Industry and Trade to reduce metal prices. Foreign markets that stimulate price growth have shrunk, so the cost inside the country should decrease not only for metal, but also for other goods.

I want to emphasize once again: those who used to think about profit, in the current situation, should think about people and our country. About the preservation of jobs, the expansion of production, given the flight from the Russian market of foreign companies.

As life has shown, no one is waiting abroad. "Dust swallow" our fellow businessmen in full, trying to return the capital from abroad.

We all have a chance to make the country stronger, the economy more efficient, and life more fair.


I (unsurprisingly) can't find anything in the anglophone media regarding fuel price reductions in Russia, but a Tass article reporting the words of State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin echoes the sentiments above and reports that:

Sunday’s latest reports from the regions say the prices of diesel fuel and fertilizers have been going down.
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