Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

[monster]

What a coincidence that they just recently dug up and resurrected the 1918 virus to... umm study what made it so lethal. To learn from it to defend against new similar viruses of course.

Ya, totally - I don't think there's any doubt this came from a lab, just because it's such a crazy amalgam of viruses.

[mentalgongfu2]

from Reuters


Pandemic flu shows need for pharma incentives -WHO
Tue Jul 14, 2009 6:38am EDT
* Health threats such as H1N1 require new drugs, jabs -WHO

* Ideal H1N1 vaccine would include seasonal, other viruses



By Laura MacInnis and Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA, July 14 (Reuters) - Pharmaceutical firms need incentives, including lucrative patents, to keep creating drugs and vaccines against emergent threats such as the H1N1 influenza pandemic, the World Health Organisation's head said on Tuesday.

"Progress in public health depends on innovation. Some of the greatest strides forward for health have followed the development and introduction of new medicines and vaccines," said WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said.

Chan, who last month declared a full pandemic underway from the H1N1 virus, said that patents can help ensure that companies develop medicines to "stay ahead of the development of drug resistance" in diseases like malaria and tuberculosis.

The discovery of isolated H1N1 infections that resist the anti-viral Tamiflu, made by Roche (ROG.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Gilead (GILD.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), and the global scramble to secure flu vaccines have shown the importance of robust research and development, Chan said.

"Innovation is needed to keep pace with the emergence of new diseases, including pandemic influenza caused by the new H1N1 virus," she told a meeting on intellectual property and health, a contentious issue that has divided rich and poor nations.

In the speech, Chan said most drug access problems faced by developing countries could be remedied by tinkering with the existing patent system, which "operates as a stimulus for research and development for new products."

In May, at the WHO's annual assembly, rich and poor nations failed to reach consensus on how they should share virus samples of H1N1 and other flu strains with companies that use the biological material to make vaccines.

Indonesia has been especially vocal against this, arguing that developing countries would not be able to afford patented jabs made from their specimens.

PROBLEMS WITH PATENTS

Chan said those talks on "one of the most difficult, and divisive, issues ever negotiated by WHO" had identified problems with patents but said that the existing intellectual property regime did not need to be fully dismantled in pursuit of equity.

"R&D can indeed be needs-driven as well as profit driven," the former Hong Kong health director said. "International agreements that govern the global trading system can indeed be shaped in ways that favour health needs of the poor."

Chan described the global vaccine making capacity as "finite and woefully inadequate for a world of 6.8 billion people, nearly all of whom are susceptible to infection by this entirely new and highly contagious virus."

While acknowledging that "the lion's share of these limited vaccines will go to wealthy countries," she said the shortfall was "the result of limited global manufacturing capacity. It is not, in essence, a result of intellectual property issues."

The WHO has recommended that health workers, pregnant women and children should get priority access to H1N1 vaccines, and noted that every country worldwide will need them. [ID:nLD54719]

Chan said the ideal H1N1 shot would protect against seasonal strains as well as a range of candidate pandemic viruses.

"This innovation has not come about yet," she said. "This would be the best and most rational insurance policy for increasing supplies and encouraging more equitable access."

Top flu vaccine makers include Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Novartis (NOVN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Baxter (BAX.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Schering Plough's (SGP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Nobilon, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Solvay (SOLB.BR: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and AstraZeneca's (AZN.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) MedImmune. (Editing by Dominic Evans)

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSLE348710

[chiggerbit]

http://www.thetreeofliberty.com/vb/show ... hp?t=69033

Disease trackers have reported that children with asthma, diabetes, or neurological conditions such as muscular dystrophy are at greatest peril from complications of the viral illness. Nationwide, 22 children had died from swine flu as of July 4.

[lightningBugout]

Chigger I'm curious where you stand on the swine flu is a ploy thing these days?

[chiggerbit]

lbo, I started out thinking it was being blown out of proportion, didn't get involved until about page 8, at which time the hog confinement article about Smithfield Foods, and the La Gloria, Mexico people's complaints about the seriousness of the illness they were experiencing and their complaints about the amount of flies there started registering with me. So, I started digging deeper. I don't care what your opinion is, it needs to be backed up. Frankly, I'm not going to start an argument with anyone here unless they tell me they've read all of the links on this thread, just not willing to waste my time unless I have an assurance that they've taken the time to go through them. If they don't have the time to read, then I don't have the time to argue with them.

To tell the truth, I didn't see how flies could be all that important, until I saw the article--2004??-- about how the guts of flies can act as a sort of incubator. And the bit about how the construction worker in Canada passed this flu back to the hogs at the facility where he had done some work made me realize that this had passed a threshold--back and forth between hogs to humans, and from humans back to hogs. That's a really big threshold. Too many old articles whose timing didn't fit in with THE BIG SCARE. While this flu has been very transmissible, it hasn't been that deadly--SO FAR. But it has been deadly in a different way than the usual flus. Come back and ask me in two years what I think. Right now I'm kind of thinking it might have been best to have caught this the first time around. And if it comes around again, it would be best to have supplies stocked up, just in case, so people don't have to go expose any more people by going shopping for badly-needed supplies.

[lightningBugout]

lbo, I started out thinking it was being blown out of proportion, didn't get involved until about page 8, at which time the hog confinement article about Smithfield Foods, and the La Gloria, Mexico people's complaints about the seriousness of the illness they were experiencing and their complaints about the amount of flies there started registering with me. So, I started digging deeper. I don't care what your opinion is, it needs to be backed up. Frankly, I'm not going to start an argument with anyone here unless they tell me they've read all of the links on this thread, just not willing to waste my time unless I have an assurance that they've taken the time to go through them. If they don't have the time to read, then I don't have the time to argue with them.

To tell the truth, I didn't see how flies could be all that important, until I saw the article--2004??-- about how the guts of flies can act as a sort of incubator. And the bit about how the construction worker in Canada passed this flu back to the hogs at the facility where he had done some work made me realize that this had passed a threshold--back and forth between hogs to humans, and from humans back to hogs. That's a really big threshold. Too many old articles whose timing didn't fit in with THE BIG SCARE. While this flu has been very transmissible, it hasn't been that deadly--SO FAR. But it has been deadly in a different way than the usual flus. Come back and ask me in two years what I think. Right now I'm kind of thinking it might have been best to have caught this the first time around. And if it comes around again, it would be best to have supplies stocked up, just in case, so people don't have to go expose any more people by going shopping for badly-needed supplies.

Thanks for the reply and for keeping this thread going. Again - one of the best threads on this board.

I think one of the most interesting things about the "it's a scam" meme is that it essentially wholly ignores the reality and startling complexity of nature. For that matter it seems quite clear that we could stand to shine much more light on the risks inherent in industrial agriculture. Which of course doesn't happen if the whole thing is portrayed as an imaginary fear-mongering phantasm. I hate to say I wonder to what degree this represents simple laziness.

Anyways - thanks for the model of persistent research in understanding things. That oughta stand out far past this thread.

I think I had a mild case of the swine flu in May. I am so hoping so....

[LilyPatToo]

Here's an article on vaccine availability problems that do not bode well for this winter--at least not for people like me who are in their 60's and have asthma. I've read that this flu "goes to the lungs" and back when I got the bad batch of 1970's swine flu vaccine, it made me extremely ill....

LilyPat

[chiggerbit]

Yikes!

About 70 percent of the world's flu vaccines are made in Europe, and only a handful of countries are self-sufficient in vaccines. The U.S. has limited flu vaccine facilities, and because factories can't be built overnight, there is no quick fix to boost vaccine supplies.

I had a type A flu in early 1975, and it was a BITCH! And not even an epidemic year. I'd hate to think that it could be worse than that. Do you think it's possible that flu symptoms are getting less severe nowadays? You rarely hear of scarlet fever epidemics now, do you? And it's not like they vaccinate for it, like they do for other infectious diseases. Maybe that's what's happening with this flu. I hope so.

Regardless, I hope you have the means of staying out of circulation if need be, LilyPatToo. Stock up, stay prepared.

[chiggerbit]

Oh, yes, and stocking up, staying prepared applies to staying out of circulation to avoid catching the flu, but also to being ready in case you DO catch the flu, especially if you have no one to care for you in an emergency.

[chiggerbit]

Hmmmm....

http://www.dailyiowan.com/2009/07/08/Op ... 11969.html

Ongoing overreaction to flu virus could hurt Iowans in the long-run

BY DI EDITORIAL BOARD | JULY 08, 2009 7:21 AM

The worldwide total of confirmed cases of the latest strain of H1N1 influenza stands at more than 71,000, according to the World Health Organization. A pandemic now, the rapid spread of the disease has sent ripples of fear and uncertainty across the planet as well as close to home in Iowa. And the WHO’s use of the word “pandemic” has not helped this.

The United States has the highest number of confirmed cases — slightly more than 26,000 — and that’s a somewhat unsettling number. More unsettling is that many of the countries that report flu patients are less than financially and medically stable; there may be many more cases unnoticed by national polls. So yes, it’s a big deal, and steps need to be taken by health-care providers and the countries that have them to slow the spread of “swine flu” and aid those who have contracted it.

However, it is not the apocalypse. It is the flu, no different from seasonal sniffles and stuffed heads, and the only concern is this particular strain’s swift propagation.

Here in Iowa, we especially have a vested interest in making sure the ongoing fear surrounding the so-called “swine flu” doesn’t grow out of hand. When the story broke, more than three months ago, people around the world assumed pork would be unsafe to consume. Consequently, the market price for hogs slumped.


Pigs are, of course, a big part of our state’s agricultural industry. And, obviously, Iowa’s economy depends in some part on agriculture. Over a longer period of time, unrest over H1N1 flu stands to hurt Iowans.

Buzz around the flu has simmered to some extent (in part, no doubt, because of the string of celebrity deaths giving mainstream media something else to talk about). However, many are still scared, and H1N1 still makes headlines on a daily basis. The world, and the United States in particular, is still overreacting.

News reports surfaced last month that a couple in Chicago married in surgical masks and latex gloves after learning they had contracted the dreaded swine flu. Their doctor assured them that there was no great threat and the wedding could go forward, but the guests still kept a 10-foot perimeter from the newlyweds. It’s odd: Either the couple are keeping a light heart and treating the whole thing as a neat joke, or their fear and paranoia simply isn’t strong enough to overpower the occasion. Both instances suggest that fear is built into us and that we’ve adopted being scared for no reason as a normal mode of thought.

In 1918, a flu pandemic broke out, killing between 50 million to perhaps 100 million people, even in some of the most remote corners of the world. The virus at work then was also a strain of H1N1, and was especially aggressive. It is understandable that people would be afraid of such another outbreak. And those who’ve read some history may be more afraid still, knowing that before the full outbreak in November in France and Spain (earning it the name “Spanish flu”) there was a smaller, less virulent strain beginning in March. It does seem like history is repeating itself, and people do love parallelism, being able to track similarities through eras is absurdly comforting to us, but that is a fiction.

The thing is, it’s not at all the same disease. The Spanish flu attacked strong immune systems, turning them against the body — consequently, the disease killed healthy adults and spared the weak, young, and old. Our little bug is far more merciful. A chill. A headache. Running nose. And though some people seem to have realized this, the hubbub rages on as the numbers climb. The real pandemic is fear.

[chiggerbit]

This flu found in pigs in Brazil,

http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Swine_flu_ ... 72009.html

Swine flu sweeping world at 'unprecedented speed': WHO
Published: Friday July 17, 2009



Swine flu has swept the globe at "unprecedented speed," the World Health Organisation said Friday, as a study warned the pandemic could tip the world into deflation and delay the economic recovery.

The WHO said it would stop giving figures on the numbers infected by the A(H1N1) virus to allow countries to channel resources into close monitoring of unexpected developments and patterns in the spread of the disease.

Argentina, meanwhile, issued a nationwide alert after pigs were confirmed to have the swine flu virus, health authorities said.

"We have detected clinical cases of the A(H1N1) influenza in a pig farm in Buenos Aires province, they have been confirmed by laboratory tests," the national farm and food standards agency said.

In Brazil, the number of deaths from swine flu nearly tripled to 11, including the first person shown to have caught the virus spontaneously within the country.

The increased tally given by Health Minister Jose Gomes late Thursday added seven to the four fatalities previously given.

The WHO said in an information note on its website the influenza pandemic had "spread internationally with unprecedented speed."

"In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks."

The Geneva-based health agency said the counting of all individual cases was no longer essential to assess the risk from swine flu.

"WHO will continue to request that these countries report the first confirmed cases and, as far as feasible, provide weekly aggregated case numbers and descriptive epidemiology of the early cases," it added.

While it eased its overall reporting requirement, the WHO called on all countries to "closely monitor unusual events," such as possible clusters of severe or fatal infections, or unusual patterns that might be associated with worsening disease.

In Britain, a study by Oxford Economics -- a forecasting consultancy whose clients include multinational corporations and government -- said recovery could be delayed by a couple of years due to the swine flu pandemic.

"Although so far the social and economic impacts have been very small, if infection rates were to rise much further, significant costs could be expected," it said.

Comparing the outbreak to the 2003 SARS crisis, it said that outbreak had occurred at a time of strong economic growth. Both consumption and growth had returned as soon as the epidemic was considered under control.

"This time around, such a sharp rebound is unlikely," it said.

"There is a risk that swine flu tips the United Kingdom and the world economy into deflation. This is because the pandemic would hit at a time when businesses and banks are still reeling from the economic crisis."

On Thursday, England's chief medical officer Liam Donaldson said that in a worst case scenario, around one in three Britons could be infected and 65,000 could die.

The WHO policy shift was partly motivated by the "mildness of symptoms in the overwhelming majority of patients, who usually recover, even without medical treatment, within a week of the onset of symptoms."

In some countries, the investigation and laboratory testing of all cases had absorbed huge resources, leaving health systems with little capacity to monitor severe cases or exceptional events that might mark an increase in the virulence of swine flu.

In the last table released by the WHO on July 6, the health agency had recorded 94,512 laboratory-confirmed cases in 136 countries and territories since April, including 429 deaths.

[chiggerbit]

"In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks."

And here in the US, schools have been out for summer vacation for about 6 weeks, which surely would have slowed down transmission. But, I'm wondering if people travel more now than they did in past epidemics.

[chiggerbit]

Wow, this flu in a herd in Argentina, as well:

http://www.javno.com/en-world/argentina ... ncy_270981

FLU VIRUS FOUND IN PIG HERD
Argentina Declares Animal Health Emergency
Argentina is one of the world`s biggest exporters of beef and other farm goods but not a significant exporter of pork products.

Published: July 17, 2009 17:12h
Last modified: July 17, 2009 21:42h
Argentina's government launched emergency animal health measures on Friday following the discovery of the new H1N1 flu virus in two pig herds.

The flu strain has killed 137 people in the South American country during the Southern Hemisphere winter and the government has closed schools and urged Argentines to avoid crowded places to halt its spread.

"A state of alert doesn't mean there's high risk. It just means that the virus could appear in another farm," said Jorge Dillon, a director at the state Senasa agency, which is responsible for animal health and food safety.

"This virus has pretty mild symptoms in pigs, and of course, this poses no risk to public health," he told local television, adding that workers at a farm in Buenos Aires province were suspected of having infected the pigs with H1N1 flu.

Signs of an H1N1 outbreak have been found in a second Argentine pig herd, but Dillon said laboratory tests were still needed to confirm the infection.

He said it was logical to think the confirmed case in Argentina represented the second suspected case of human-to-pig transmission of the flu, referring to an outbreak at a pig farm in Canada that officials later stepped back from.

Canadian health officials said a traveler carried the new virus from Mexico to Canada, possibly infecting his family and a herd of swine in May, but tests later showed the man was not the source of infection.

However, they did not rule out the possibility the virus could still have been transmitted into the herd by a person.

The special measures imposed on Friday will allow officials to step up testing in pig farms and in slaughter houses in order to guarantee early detection, the government's official gazette said.

Argentina is one of the world's biggest exporters of beef and other farm goods but it exports very few pork products.

The deadly new flu strain appeared earlier this year in Mexico and the United States but has since spread across the globe and the World Health Organization declared a pandemic last month in a bid to halt its spread.

[chiggerbit]

Interesting regarding Britain:

http://www.thetreeofliberty.com/vb/show ... hp?t=69505

"....When the pandemic emerged in Mexico last April, spreading first to the US and then across the Atlantic to Britain and Europe, it was thought that, as we were entering our summer, the virus might spread only slowly, giving us a few months grace to prepare for a winter surge.

It has not turned out that way. The expected winter surge, which may still occur, has been preceded by a summer one. In the early weeks of the pandemic, last May, Britain and Spain had roughly equivalent numbers of cases. But as the weeks have passed, Britain has been much harder hit.

By 16 July, we had 9,718 confirmed cases and 14 deaths, nine times more than Spain with 1099 cases and two deaths. In Germany, France and Italy, the number of cases is still in the hundreds and there have been no recorded deaths......"

[Penguin]

German, for those who can read it - maybe there will be a translated one later.

http://tagesschau.sf.tv/nachrichten/arc ... _intercity

Unfall mit Schweinegrippen-Viren im Intercity
In einem Intercity-Zug zwischen Bern und Freiburg ist am Montag ein Behälter mit Schweinegrippe-Viren explodiert. Bei den Viren handelte es sich um eine für den Menschen ungefährliche Variante des Stamms H1N1. Zwei Personen wurden durch die Explosion leicht verletzt.

Für die Passagiere bestand aber keine Gefahr, mit dem gefährlichen Schweinegrippe-Virus angesteckt zu werden, wie die Polizei mitteilte. «Der Zwischenfall hat uns im ersten Moment beunruhigt, entpuppte sich dann aber als harmlos», sagte ein Sprecher der Waadtländer Kantonspolizei am Montagabend.

Die Explosion ereignete sich kurz vor dem Bahnhof Freiburg. Bei dem darauf folgenden Zwischenstopp konnten die Zugpassagiere noch ungehindert ein- und aussteigen.

Vor Lausanne wurde der Zug für mehrere Stunden auf ein Abstellgleis gestellt. Die 61 Passagiere, die sich im betroffenen Bahnwagen befanden, wurden während einer Stunde abgesondert, bis eine Ansteckung vollständig ausgeschlossen werden konnte.

Trockeneis falsch platziert

Die Viren waren für das Nationale Grippe-Zentrum in Genf bestimmt. Dort sollte im Auftrag des Bundesamts für Gesundheit (BAG) ein Test zur Diagnose der Schweinegrippe entwickelt werden.

Ein Genfer Angestellter hatte in Zürich acht Fläschchen abgeholt, um sie per Zug nach Genf zu transportieren. Fünf davon enthielten die Schweinegrippe-Viren, in drei weiteren befand sich Nukleinsäure. Diese Fläschchen waren luftdicht verpackt und mit Trockeneis - festem Kohlendioxid - gekühlt.

Die Viren seien nach den gängigen Regeln verpackt gewesen, sagte Laurent Kaiser, Leiter des Genfer Laboratoriums für Virologie vor den Medien. Allerdings war das Trockeneis irrtümlicherweise innerhalb statt ausserhalb des Vakuums platziert worden. Es taute auf, und im Innern der Verpackung entstand ein Überdruck. Schliesslich explodierte das Paket. Der Transporteur und eine Frau erlitten leichte Verletzungen.

Nicht das gefährliche Virus

Laut Kaiser handelte es sich bei den Proben zwar um Viren des Schweinegrippe-Stamms H1N1. Mit dem derzeit grassierenden aggressiven Schweinegrippe-Virus seien diese aber nicht identisch.

Auch der Transporteur wusste, dass er keine gefährlichen Viren beförderte. Er informierte umgehend das Zugpersonal. Nach vierzig Minuten wurden auch die SBB und die Behörden über den Zwischenfall informiert.

Die Polizei stoppte den Zug vor der Einfahrt in den Bahnhof Lausanne und entsandte Spezialisten zur Abklärung der Situation in den Zug. Dabei habe es sich um Vorsichtsmassnahmen gehandelt, teilte die Waadtländer Kantonspolizei mit.

Er bedaure den Vorfall, sagte Kaiser weiter. Er erinnerte aber daran, dass jeden Tag Viren mit dem Zug transportiert würden. Einige seien sogar per Post unterwegs.

Basically, shortly - they were transporting viruses in a container in a Intercity train, kept cold with dry ice, and the ice was packed wrong, and the container exploded spewing its contents all over the train.

They say it was H1N1, but not the pandemic version...

To the "Oopsie" category.