Live: Al Jazeera coverage of Egypt’s growing revolution

[gnosticheresy_2]

Quick question for Alice or anybody else: would it be ok, if you're ok with it Alice, if I block quoted your post anonymously on another completely unrelated forum I frequent? or would this be:

a. bad (from a security point of view as a simple google search could bring up the post and from there the forum, poster, id etc)

b. rude (as I'm just copying your post verbatim)

c. ok as it's an awesome summary and people need to know this stuff.

or any combination of the above.

[Searcher08]

This is from the forum over at OpenMesh

hi, i'd like to apologize in advance for rambling if i do, it's been a really tough week and i have not slept well, and if i sound paranoid, excuse me but you have not been shot at by rouge police units/random maniacs as they were trying to rob your home.
i'm an Egyptian 34yrold geek/engineer/advertiser, i just managed to get get online yesterday, even through there were ways to get online through out last week that i could not use, either because it a) was too expensive (money is a huge problem since no one got paid this month and the banks are out) or b) too dangerous to go to a location where i could maintain connectivity (the streets might not be a war zone but you just can't hang around in the street anymore)
anyway,
what i think is important for you guys right now if you are actually trying to offer a solution is knowing what kind of resources we have available, what kind of hardware the guy in the street owns, and what restrictions apply for usage,

first restriction i can think of, is that the solutions we thought of around here just were too complicated for the average joe, who is already under intense pressure to keep his mother/wife/sister/kids safe, almost all males are out on the streets at night tense and busy enough securing our areas,
so anything that needs more than a simple one step install just wont cut it,
i'm pretty sure no one would mind blowing away their current firmwares (for anymobile/router device) as long that there's a sure way to back it up,
almost every house will have a wireless router available the Broadcom BRCM963xx is probably the most common (since it was mass distributed by the major internet providers)
windows7 or winXP sp2 will be everywhere,
computer hardware will almost always be a gamers config as in good rams, lots of storage, and a good vidCard, the rest of the components are probably anything that was cheapest,
Blackberrys are Everywhere, not that many androids around, but those who have them have usually bought a samsung or an HTC(most HTCs i saw ran windows not android though) and hardly know anything about how they can be flashed or anyof that, i'm one of the minority who bought an Experia X8, the most common mobiles are Nokias and SonyEricsons, and theres like a ton of iphones of all versions and all jail broken i haven't seen a single user who didn't jailbreak it just because everyone else did :/
a good number of ipads and mac minis are available too,
psp2 and psp3 are almost everywhere, since they are used as public entertainment as well as private,
...
also there is a real need to encrypt data, since security is a real issue, and you cannot trust anyone (the current attacks in Tahrir Square are proof of this), i've been trying to mix QR codes with PGP encryption but i'm no programmer, and the process i use is a bit lengthy, it would be very useful if a single software could be used,
i imagine there can be a wireless relay between all these smart phones out there with all these routers in every house that would at least give us internal connectivity, but again i'm no Network engineer, i'm just a geekish sort of guy who likes techy stuff,
the ability to spoof GPS is a bit important since no one whats to be pinpointed, but still has need of it (at least while the internet is still up)
very few linux boxes around, mostly Ubuntu (newbies) or Fedora and mandrake, a few slackers around (myself included)
and many ppl have more than one machine at home collecting dust,

thats all i can think of right now,
and i need to go get supplies :/

thanks for reading this if you did.

[Joe Hillshoist]

Hi guys, been real busy.

Can anyone using twitter here please do me a favour, text into #egypt that following the arrest of blogger Sandmonkey a couple of hours ago tweeting your location isn't safe, and any protesters using Bambuser have their location shown on google maps. I dunno if its real time or not but if it is it ain't safe. if you're a "leader" you can be targeted and tracked if you reveal where you are going on twitter.

I know one blogger using it (bB)- alice first introduced me to him i think - and I'd hate to see him get done. Hossam el-H tweeting @ 3 arab awy (all one word). I can't access my account right now (have a never used twitter account but no mobile and till now no desire to use it), its 2 am and I've had an intense day and can't be fucked figuring it out.

cheers

Ok done. Checked the account of the guy you mentioned, he's still tweeting so appears to be ok



thugs r now approaching the square from champlion st. We r regrouping. #jan25
39 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply


this is people's power. This democracy from below. This is the most beautiful thing i have ever seen in my life.
43 minutes ago


the shabab who were exhausted in the confrontation retreat. Hundreds come in to replace them. Thugs r still retreating.
46 minutes ago


there is now replacement for the front teams that finished defending the frontline.
48 minutes ago


Barricades - LIVE at http://bambuser.com/v/1380337
1 hour ago

Cheers.

I may have been panicking a bit. But it was a late night and a long day. Those guys are great and when they don't update twitter for about 20 hrs I start to worry.

I spun out seeing than Banbuser thing tho. That just makes it too easy if someones tracking you.

[nathan28]

A huge supermarket near where I live was set on fire today, shortly after my husband had left it this afternoon.

Stay safe, Alice, and good luck.

[vanlose kid]

latest set of tweets from AJ's Dan Nolan. i was wondering where he was yesterday.

*

nolanjazeera
And I told the protestors holding on for dear life in Tahrir last nite that there's10,000's on twitter who wish they were Egyptian right now
24 minutes ago via web

Once again, a big thank you for all the msg's of support & concern over past few days!!! Really appreciated by all jazeera staff
27 minutes ago via web

Don't worry Aljazeera will be covering/recording/documenting whatever happens in Tahrir on Fri #Egypt #jan25
35 minutes ago via web

Say a prayer that Fri doesn't turn as ugly as many fear it might. Cairo is fairly calm at mo but I fear a storm is coming. Hope I'm wrong
45 minutes ago via web

the Aljazeera live shot of Tahrir Sq had to be pulled as it was putting our lives at risk. Will be back up as soon as its safe to do so
about 1 hour ago via web

Protestors w me were pharmacists, lecturers & students- nicest people u'd ever meet. One cried because I had to see his nation like this
about 3 hours ago via web

Struggle for freedom is etched in their faces. Last nite u could also see fear - maybe the taste of freedom on tue is all they're gonna get?
about 3 hours ago via web

my life was pretty much in hands of those protestors defending the square last nite. If pro-Mubarak thugs found me inside, well u know...
about 3 hours ago via web

the faces of the guys defending square last nite are images I'll never forget. Freedom really is a struggle people, don't ever forget that!!
about 3 hours ago via web

2 AJE journos went missing for 6hrs today- now been found altho beaten up. Jazeera won't stop reporting story but re-assessing safety for us
about 3 hours ago via web

Got bak to hotel today but its now far too dangerous as jazeera journos r being hunted down. Shifted to "safer" hotel now but situ not great
about 3 hours ago via web

Got stranded in Tahrir Square last nite & had to sleep the night. Pretty terrifying night, protestors gave shelter as they defended all nite
about 3 hours ago via web

Thanks to a state media campaign blaming aljazeera for trying to spark a revolution, those pro-mubarak thugs are now hunting jazeera staff!
about 8 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone

Sorry for the radio silence guys but situation has become much worse in past 24hrs esp for media even more so for aljazeera! #Egypt #cairo
about 8 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone

Protestors say mubarak's plan was to send in goons turn it violent then crack it down.The world saw how peaceful yest was can see thru plan!
February 2, 2011 8:09:35 PM via Twitter for iPhone

2 sides faced off for 15mins, no violence just war of chants then kaboom! Don't know what exactly ignited it but boy did it turn ugly fast!
February 2, 2011 8:02:42 PM via Twitter for iPhone

Some anti-gov protestors had been collecting sticks/bars as pro-gov arrived, told by others to put em down keep it peaceful
February 2, 2011 8:01:43 PM via Twitter for iPhone

To recap - i was in the middle of Tahrir square when clashes started today. Army made no attempt to stop pro-mubarak guys flooding in
February 2, 2011 8:01:11 PM via Twitter for iPhone

Cant wait to see Pres Obama's response to events today in #cairo. Yest 1mil people cried out for peaceful democracy n look at what they got!
February 2, 2011 7:43:33 PM via Twitter for iPhone

I have taken shelter. SO much anti-jazeera sentiment among mubarak supporters its not safe to be outside. Say a prayer for #cairo tonight
February 2, 2011 6:51:04 PM via Twitter for iPhone

http://twitter.com/nolanjazeera

*

[Elvis]

Several links in article

Mubarak Regime Forces Cell Phone Companies to Text Its Messages

Feb 3, 2011 – 4:16 PM
Theunis Bates
Contributor

LONDON -- Anti-government protesters in Egypt used their cell phones to organize and broadcast their uprising to the world. Now the embattled regime of President Hosni Mubarak has realized that it can also use the same technology to fight its opponents.

Over the past five days, Egyptians have been hit with a steady stream of pro-Mubarak text messages.

"Youth of Egypt, beware rumors and listen to the sound of reason -- Egypt is above all so preserve it," read one text, according to a photograph and translation posted on this Flickr account. Another, received Sunday by an Associated Press reporter in the country, called on "honest and loyal men to confront the traitors and criminals and protect our people and honor."

In both cases, the sender of the text was only identified as Vodafone. The Guardian reports that a further mass message, sent by a group called "Egypt Lovers," encouraged Mubarak supporters to gather Wednesday in Cairo's Tahrir Square. When the regime's backers arrived at the central plaza, they attacked anti-government demonstrators.

U.K.-based Vodafone owns a 55 percent stake in Egypt's largest mobile carrier, Vodafone Egypt, and today admitted that the regime had forced it to transmit propaganda.

"Under the emergency powers provisions of the Telecoms Act, the Egyptian authorities can instruct the mobile networks of Mobinil, Etisalat and Vodafone to send messages to the people of Egypt," the company said in a statement. "These messages are not scripted by any of the mobile network operators and we do not have the ability to respond to the authorities on their content."

Vodafone isn't the only telecom hijacked by the authorities. Mobinil, which is 71 percent owned by France Telecom, told AOL News that it had "been required by the Egyptian army to send text messages to its customers" but that only messages "concerning national security and general safety" were processed. The Paris-headquartered company added that it "strongly disapproves" of "any message of a political nature" that runs counter to the firm's "neutrality principle."

Meanwhile on Wednesday, Etisalat Egypt -- a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Telecommunications Corp. -- sent out a message in Arabic reading, "To every mother, father, brother and sister, to every honorable citizen, take care of this country for this nation lasts forever," according to The Wall Street Journal. Etisalat Egypt wasn't immediately available to comment on the text messaging issue.

This spam propaganda is fueling local anger with the telecom giants, who were already under attack for shutting down their networks Friday at the request of the government. Mai Barakat, a London-based analyst with research firm Informa Telecoms and Media, told AOL News that Vodafone and other firms risk losing customers if Egyptians start to view them as tools of the regime.

"A lot of people will quit their provider if they think they're taking the government's side," she said

That's something the networks are desperate to avoid, as Egypt is a major source of revenue. The country is home to some 75 million cell phone subscribers, Bloomberg reports, and has one of the most developed telecom markets in the Middle East and North Africa.

However, Jack Gold -- president of U.S.-based tech consultancy J. Gold Associates -- told AOL News that firms like Vodafone simply aren't in a position to stand up to the authorities. "The truth is that all carriers and all operators are licensed by the country they're working in," he says. "If the government decides they need you to do something and you don't do it, they'll pull your license and you'll be shut down."

In countries like the U.S., U.K. and France, telecom firms have the option of taking the government to court if they disagree with an executive order. "But in authoritarian nations, if the top guy decides you're off the air, you're off the air," Gold says. "In this case, I don't think we can hold operators liable for doing what the government told them to do. They had no option."

http://www.aolnews.com/2011/02/03/mubarak-regime-forces-vodaphone-other-cell-phone-companies-to-t/?icid=main%7Chtmlws-main-n%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk3%7C199094


Alice, so happy to hear you and your family are safe!
Have you received any of the text messages described in the article?

[vanlose kid]

10.22pm: An attempt to crowd-source the names of those who have died in the protests has been launched using a spreadsheet on Google Docs.

"We are attempting to name all of the brave Egyptians who have been killed during the peaceful fight for freedom," the organisers write. And the details are telling, including this entry for a man named Ahmed Ahab Mostafa:

Shot on Friday 28 Jan, died 3 Feb at Al Azhar University hospital in Hussein. Hospital refuses to give the body to his family unless they sign a statement that he died in a car accident.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/201 ... #block-118

*

[justdrew]

for what it's worth...

Shorter Egyptian Government: #Jan25 Is Over
By Spencer Ackerman Email Author

It doesn’t make much sense, at first glance, for the Egyptian government to launch its huge crackdown against dissidents right as it turns Internet and cellular communications back on. But the propaganda that’s rapidly emerging from the regime of Hosni Mubarak actually has a clear message, one that other Mideast dictators can embrace and that’s ready for broadcast: this revolution is already snuffed out.

Sherif Mansour, a senior program officer with the human rights group Freedom House, sees an underlying message beneath everything the Mubarak regime is saying and doing: “old-line thuggery,” as he tells Danger Room. Yesterday the regime sent plainclothes goons into Cairo’s Nisour Square to hurl rocks, fling Molotovs and trample people underneath Camel hoofs. Today it continued its violent clashes, but added a new twist: beating and detaining dozens of foreign reporters. All this has worked for Mubarak in the past.

But while he harassed independent foreign journalists, his subordinates made Thursday their most talkative day since the protests began last week. And that hints at a propaganda strategy: convincing Egypt, and the world, that Mubarak has broken the back of the protest movement.

Part of that message was a superficial reconciliation. In a press conference, Ahmed Shafik, the new prime minister, praised the “youth” and vowed to investigate just how Tahrir Square erupted into violence yesterday. And in a very rare interview with state TV, Omar Suleiman, the former spymaster turned vice president, told the youth of Egypt, “we thank you for what you did. You were the spark” for the “reform” Mubarak promised.

But there was a much harder edge to Suleiman’s comments, the first he gave in his new job: he declared the revolt over. Mubarak “has responded to all lawful demands,” Suleiman said, by agreeing not to run for another presidential term. The legitimate youth movement has been “infiltrated” by shadowy figures with “foreign agendas,” who will be “held accountable and penalized.” There is nothing left for protesters to do but “please disperse and go home.”

The alternative is also clear: a military confrontation. The Army “has a new mandate,” Suleiman said, “to protect citizens from thugs.” On Al Jazeera, an activist in Tahrir Square, Salma Eltarzi, called that threat “a crime of war.”

It’s also a classic act of thuggery. For decades, Mubarak has predicated his repression on protecting Egypt from internal subversion and foreign-directed chaos, so today’s messages indicate he’s going back to the well. If images of the brutal beatings are broadcast around the world — most foreign journalists have been released, after all — it underscores his willingness to reject his Western allies’ demands to stop the violence, and it gives other Mideast regimes facing their own internal unrest a chance to “learn some of the repressive techniques,” Mansour says. Once again, Egypt returns to a place atop the Arab world — in spite of the millions demanding democracy in the region.

Mubarak was happy to make these points himself. Speaking for his first interview since the crisis began, Mubarak told ABC’s Christiane Amanpour that he can’t step down from office, because it would mean chaos. He says he told President Obama, “you don’t understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now.” Another dictatorial classic: L’etat, c’est moi.

Tomorrow is going to be another big day in Egypt. Anti-government demonstrators have demanded that tomorrow be Mubarak’s “Day of Departure.” Suleiman’s implicit threat hangs in the air. The Committee to Protect Journalists and the International Crisis Group are just a few of the human rights and civil society organizations denouncing the regime. It seems fair to say that Mubarak and the protesters are each waiting for the other to blink.

Mansour thinks Mubarak will crack first. The brutality “was a tactical error for them in the first place.” The regime has made several: shutting down the Internet just “gave people a reason not to be at home, or watching things from their computer,” giving the decentralized protests “the advantage of being unpredictable.” Now, it’s inviting greater internal opposition and international condemnation.

The regime’s propaganda indicates that it’s confident — or at least wants to look confident. But the longer that protests rage across Egypt, the weaker it ultimately appears. And Mubarak fears looking weak worst of all.

[elpuma]

I'm deeply ashamed to say that I have made no contribution at all to the heroic Egyptian uprising (some are calling it a revolution, but that, unfortunately, remains premature). My husband was in Germany when it all went down (nobody believed it could be this big or last this long) and I was alone with the kids until yesterday afternoon, when he was finally able to make it back home.

Hang in there Alice, and God be with you and your family. You've already proven your courage on this board.

[justdrew]

well, moving forward, everyone is going to have to think about hiding people for months, because absent the ability to overwhelm the military/police/thug apparatus - there's going to be a few tens of thousands idealists running for their lives in the coming days.

fucking violence. EVERY FUCKING TIME.

time to stop pretending "peaceful" is even an option, you want change, you kill the motherfucker standing in your way, he knew the risk when he got in your way, and you knew the risk when you decided to walk that path. It's him or you. Peace is bullshit, a lie designed to make easy targets for the monsters to shoot.

yes, I'm now in full-on pissed and cynical mode.

[nathan28]

Ben Rhodes and Samantha Power[] Egypt Policy: Another Obama failure
I remember well Liberal friends that praised Powers work…. not so Just it seems when it comes to NORTH Africa?…. A very effective policy response guys… You both are obviously well qualified to continue to lead the strategy on Egypt. Hopefully the Egypt lobbyist Wisner is still with Mubarak in Sharm plotting the next moves…. Very effective for US interests in the region.

http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/ben-rhodes-and-samantha-powers-egypt-policy-another-obama-failure/

For those that don't know, Samantha Power, Cass Sunstein's current domestic partner, is a Harvard goon who is in close with the B-rock admin and who advocated armed intervention to prevent mass killings (except if the US is responsible), uphold human rights, spread democracy etc., prevent conflict preemptively, etc. Except, apparently, when it's George Bush's idea or it might threaten brutal dictatorships the United States likes.

Here's Power on Egypt, who was so full of moral outrage and necessities only a few years ago:

“In giving us guidance as we develop our policies in the region, the president was adamant that we take stock of the brittleness and hidden risks of the status quo,” said Samantha Power, a senior director at the National Security Council who handles human rights issues.

Here's White House Press Sec'y Gibbs:

...the time for the transition in Egypt is now, and it is important that we all begin to see meaningful steps toward that transition and that negotiations take place between the government and a broadly based group of members of the opposition as we work through, as I said, the transition toward free and fair elections.

"guidance" "take stock" "hidden risks" "status quo" "meaningful steps" "negotiations" "transition toward"

Not exactly the muscular language you'd expect from the advocates of armed intervention and intensified conflict. Not only that, but it's the language of plodding, technocratic management in the face of really-existing violence. These people wouldn't know a tear gas canister if it hit them in the face. What part of "loyalists firing on largely unarmed democratic activists" and "targetted killings of people using twitter" needs so much effort to "take stock" of?



Gosh, look what I found in my "Other Celebrated Revolutions That Would Have Failed Without Foreign Assistance" File

[vanlose kid]

AJ doc from 2007, even more poignant now. very good.



*

[Joe Hillshoist]

Ok done. Checked the account of the guy you mentioned, he's still tweeting so appears to be ok

He's not using anything that links to his position via google maps now anyway. I'm sure mobile can be tracked by coppers and spooks, but not necessarily in Egypt now, by thugs on the ground. Thats why that gps based stuff might be dangerous.

Thanks for that, I have a bit of a soft spot for that fella. Every time someone in Aussie goes on about how the MB are starting a revolution I direct them to his blog. Some of the music he linked to on his website is ok too.

This is great tweet:

Dudes!!! I feel like throwing the ashtray at the TV screen each time this army spokesman opens his mouth with his stupid statements.

Dudes!!!

[vanlose kid]

An Exit Plan for Mubarak
By TAREK MASOUD
Published: February 3, 2011

HOSNI MUBARAK’S promise this week to initiate constitutional reform in Egypt and then step down at the end of his presidential term in September did little to mollify the anger of the demonstrators protesting his rule. Many protesters seemed to agree with the assessment of the opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei that it was “a trick” intended to buy time. With the regime-sponsored ugliness now engulfing Tahrir Square, demands for Mr. Mubarak’s immediate resignation have grown only more urgent, and the risk of a violent conclusion appears to have grown.

But there may still be a chance to effect the “orderly transition” that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has called for. Paradoxically, it requires that Mr. Mubarak stay on, but only for a short time, to initiate the election of an entirely new Parliament that could then amend all the power out of the presidency or even abolish it.

This would no doubt disappoint those who want to put Mr. Mubarak on the next plane to Saudi Arabia, but there are two risks associated with his leaving so abruptly. The first is that the demonstrations might diminish or dissipate, leaving Mr. ElBaradei and his coalition trying to negotiate with the military or Vice President Omar Suleiman without the force of the crowds behind them.

The second risk stems from the Egyptian Constitution, which gives the power to dissolve Parliament and call new elections only to an elected president. Mr. Mubarak’s successor, as an acting president, would be specifically prohibited from getting the parliamentary elections under way. A new Parliament is crucial to democratic reform, because only Parliament has the power to defang the Egyptian presidency, stripping it of its dictatorial powers through constitutional amendment. The current Parliament — bought and paid for by Mr. Mubarak’s National Democratic Party — is not fit for that task.

Egypt’s next scheduled presidential election is only months away. If the Constitution isn’t amended before it is held, the notorious Article 76, which makes it difficult for independents like Mr. ElBaradei to get on the ballot, will still be in place. More important, the new president would have the same imperial powers Mr. Mubarak has had — the very powers that the Egyptian public wants taken away.

The constitutionally sanctioned timeline would be this: Mr. Mubarak dissolves Parliament, forcing a new election within 60 days (international observers would be required to make sure the election is fair). Once the new Parliament is seated, Mr. Mubarak resigns, and an acting president, probably the new Parliament’s speaker, takes charge until a new president is elected. The new Parliament would work around the clock to amend the Constitution in ways that would put Mr. Suleiman or any would-be strongman out of a job. The final step is a national referendum on the amendments.

For American policymakers, the most frightening possibility is that the Muslim Brotherhood would sweep the parliamentary elections and institute a constitution based on Islamic holy law. This is unlikely. The political momentum in Egypt is not with the Islamists. Moreover, the Brotherhood’s members have never sought to compete for a majority of seats in Parliament, and during the current protests have impressed people across the Egyptian political spectrum with their self-effacement. Brotherhood adherents know that a victory for them could be used by the military as an excuse to short-circuit the birth of democracy in Egypt.

A likelier outcome is that the Islamists would join a coalition slate of candidates, becoming part of an ideologically diverse Parliament. The greater danger now is that Mr. Mubarak would corrupt the electoral process by unleashing the same thugs who are now attacking the peaceful protesters of Tahrir Square.

One might wonder why, at this moment of change and tumult, anyone would talk about amending a constitution that everyone recognizes as a deformed confection of a corrupt regime. But by working with even a flawed constitution, the opposition would be helping to entrench and deepen a constitutionalist principle that has been steadily eroded. And with its built-in deadlines, the constitutional route also makes it harder for the military to draw out the transition and consolidate its hold.

For any of this to happen, Mr. Mubarak must remain briefly in office, and he must agree to the changes as an answer to his people’s legitimate cry for democracy. The demand that can make him comply must come from President Obama.

It has often been said in recent days that the United States can do nothing to affect the progress of democracy in Egypt, but the military’s dependence on American money and matériel suggests that this is untrue. The more the United States can make clear that continued military support depends on how the Egyptian Army conducts itself during this transition, the more likely the military is to play midwife to democracy.

Much could go wrong, but finding an orderly way to get not just Mr. Mubarak but also the armed forces out of political life should be a more important priority than ensuring that Islamists don’t hijack the revolution. All that is required of us is to remind ourselves that democracy in Egypt, or any other part of the world, is not something we should fear.

Tarek Masoud is an assistant professor of public policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04masoud.html

*

[vanlose kid]

White House, Egypt Discuss Plan for Mubarak’s Exit
By HELENE COOPER and MARK LANDLER

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately, turning over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats said Thursday.

Even though Mr. Mubarak has balked, so far, at leaving now, officials from both governments are continuing talks about a plan in which Mr. Suleiman, backed by Lt. Gen. Sami Enan, chief of the Egyptian armed forces, and Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, the defense minister, would immediately begin a process of constitutional reform.

The proposal also calls for the transitional government to invite members from a broad range of opposition groups, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood, to begin work to open up the country’s electoral system in an effort to bring about free and fair elections in September, the officials said.

Senior administration officials said that the proposal was one of several options under discussion with high-level Egyptian officials around Mr. Mubarak in an effort to persuade the president to step down now.

They cautioned that the outcome depended on several factors, not least Egypt’s own constitutional protocols and the mood of the protesters on the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities.

Some officials said there was not yet any indication that either Mr. Suleiman or the Egyptian military was willing to abandon Mr. Mubarak.

Even as the Obama administration is coalescing around a Mubarak-must-go-now posture in private conversations with Egyptian officials, Mr. Mubarak himself remains determined to stay until the election in September, American and Egyptian officials said. His backers forcibly pushed back on Thursday against what they viewed as American interference in Egypt’s internal affairs.

“What they’re asking cannot be done,” one senior Egyptian official said, citing clauses in the Egyptian Constitution that bar the vice president from assuming power. Under the Constitution, the speaker of Parliament would succeed the president. “That’s my technical answer,” the official added. “My political answer is they should mind their own business.”

Mr. Mubarak’s insistence on staying will again be tested by large street protests on Friday, which the demonstrators are calling his “day of departure,” when they plan to march on the presidential palace. The military’s pledge not to fire on the Egyptian people will be tested as well.

The discussions about finding a way out of the crisis in Cairo take place as new questions are being raised about whether American intelligence agencies, after the collapse of the Tunisian government, adequately warned the White House and top lawmakers about the prospects of an uprising in Egypt.

During a Senate hearing on Thursday, both Democrats and Republicans pressed a senior Central Intelligence Agency official about when the C.I.A. and other agencies notified President Obama of the looming crisis, and whether intelligence officers even monitored social networking sites and Internet forums to gauge popular sentiment in Egypt.

“At some point it had to have been obvious that there was going to be a huge demonstration,” said Senator Dianne Feinstein, the California Democrat who is chairwoman of the Senate’s Select Committee on Intelligence.

She said that intelligence agencies never sent a notice to her committee about the growing uprising in Egypt, as is customary in the case of significant global events.

Stephanie O’Sullivan, the C.I.A. official, responded that the agency had been tracking instability in Egypt for some time and had concluded that the government in Cairo was in an “untenable” situation. But, Ms. O’Sullivan said, “we didn’t know what the triggering mechanism would be.”

Because of the fervor now unleashed in Egypt, one Obama administration official said, Mr. Mubarak’s close aides expressed concern that they were not convinced that Mr. Mubarak’s resignation would satisfy the protesters.

In an interview with Christiane Amanpour of ABC News, Mr. Mubarak said that he was “fed up” with being president but that he could not step down for fear of sowing chaos in the country.

“The worry on Mubarak’s part is that if he says yes to this, there will be more demands,” said Leslie H. Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. “And since he’s not dealing with a legal entity, but a mob, how does he know there won’t be more demands tomorrow?”

A number of high-level American officials have reached out to the Egyptians in recent days. While administration officials would not offer details of the alternatives that were being discussed, they made it clear that their preferred outcome would be for Mr. Suleiman to take power as a transitional figure.

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. spoke by phone to Mr. Suleiman on Thursday, the White House said in a statement, urging that “credible, inclusive negotiations begin immediately in order for Egypt to transition to a democratic government that addresses the aspirations of the Egyptian people.”

Mr. Biden’s phone call came after a mission by Mr. Obama’s private emissary, Frank G. Wisner, was abruptly ended when Mr. Mubarak, angry at Mr. Obama’s toughly worded speech on Tuesday night, declined to meet with the envoy a second time, officials said.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has made three calls since the weekend to Egypt’s powerful defense minister, Field Marshal Tantawi, who served on the coalition’s side in the Persian Gulf war of 1991.

Pentagon officials declined on Thursday to describe the specifics of the calls but indicated that Mr. Gates’s messages were focused on more than urging the Egyptian military to exercise restraint.

Officials familiar with the dialogue between the Obama administration and Cairo say that American officials have told their Egyptian counterparts that if they support another strong man to replace Mr. Mubarak — but without a specific plan and timetable for moving toward democratic elections — Congress might react by freezing military aid to Egypt.

On Thursday, the Senate passed a resolution calling on Mr. Mubarak to begin the transfer of power to an “inclusive, interim caretaker government.”

Anthony H. Cordesman, an expert on the Egyptian military at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that a transition government led by Mr. Suleiman and the military, with pledges to move toward democratic elections, was in his mind “the most probable case.” But he said the administration had to proceed with extreme caution.

“Everybody working this issue knows that this is a military extremely sensitive to outside pressure,” Mr. Cordesman said.

Even as the Obama administration has ratcheted up the pressure on Egypt, it has reaffirmed its support for other Arab allies facing popular unrest.

The White House released a statement saying that Mr. Obama called President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen on Wednesday to welcome Mr. Saleh’s recent “reform measures” — the Yemeni President promised not to run again in 2013.

And on Thursday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called King Abdullah II of Jordan to say that the United States looked forward to working with his new cabinet — recently announced — and to underline the importance of the relationship between Jordan and the United States.

Philip J. Crowley, the State Department spokesman, declined to say whether Mrs. Clinton had enlisted King Abdullah in an effort to ease out Mr. Mubarak. But Mr. Crowley praised the king for responding to the unrest in Jordan.

“He’s doing his best to respond to this growing aspiration,” Mr. Crowley said. “And we appreciate the leadership he’s shown.”

Elisabeth Bumiller, Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker contributed reporting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world ... nted=print

*