Canada election watch

[Canadian_watcher]

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Damn Jeff I should look it up but I'm lazy.

What's the NDP stand on Afghanistan? Libya? NAFTA? Shale oil? GWOT? Bush prosecutions? What are their tendencies to turn into their opposite once elected, a la UK Liberals?

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Their positions are pretty much all-good across the board. They are a true socialist party. As to flip-flopping, nobody really knows because they never get any serious power.

I agree. But I do note the utter SILENCE from all parties and the media WRT Libya. It's shameful.

And I'm not into the NDP's position on cap and trade, either.

Since none of us are going to get everything we want though, I'm much more encouraged by the overall direction that the NDP seems to want to take us than any other party.

EDIT: By the way - those NUMBERS!!! they are amazing! fingers crossed!

[Jeff]

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Damn Jeff I should look it up but I'm lazy.

What's the NDP stand on Afghanistan? Libya? NAFTA? Shale oil? GWOT? Bush prosecutions? What are their tendencies to turn into their opposite once elected, a la UK Liberals?.

I don't see Layton pulling a Clegg. The federal NDP have had influence in minority parliaments, but have never been this close to governing, and so have attracted a fairly quixotic brand of politician; moreso than some of its provincial counterparts. It's more like a caucus of Kuciniches and Sanders.

Layton's political philosophy, from 2003:

Leo: What about the question of language? Is the old language of socialism still relevant or is there a new language; or is socialism not necessary for your vision? Do you still see yourself as a socialist, Jack?

Jack: When I ran for city hall I found that the language I was accustomed to using on campus is not the language people are using on the Danforth in Toronto. To tell you the truth, I think the old language is alien to most people. They don’t know what it means and we have to spend too much of our time explaining it to them. That’s not productive. I find that the language of story telling is more effective. Like “Let’s get this housing project built.” Or “Let’s stop our garbage from going up north - We’re up against the biggest waste company in the world - We’ll take them down with grass roots action in favour of composting.” People share our concerns and they can identify with that type of language about very concrete things. I doubt I’ll ever use words like capitalism or imperialism though maybe there will be an occasion. Socialist? I’m proud to call myself a socialist. I prefer it by far to democratic socialist. But I don’t go around shouting it out.

http://canadiandimension.com/articles/2009

The NDP's always been against Afghanistan, and is very much "troops home now." (See Urban Dictionary entry, "Taliban Jack.")

Libya was a disappointment, and the NDP joined a parliamentary consensus for a no-fly zone. Though with some caveats:

NDP Leader Jack Layton said he has been concerned since the start of the Libyan conflict about the possibility of "mission creep."

"We insisted on parliamentary review and three months after [the Canadian involvement began], there will have to be a further review by Parliarment," Layton said in Esquimalt, B.C.

"We will be insisting on the government to produce an exit strategy and an end game at that point."

Tar Sands:


NAFTA and Globalization:


Global War on Terror:

The leader of the NDP has cast the global war on terrorism as a George W. Bush pet project and says Canada should be looking elsewhere for international challenges to tackle.

Jack Layton noted that AIDS, poverty and climate change are killing far more people than terrorism and he accused the federal government of ignoring those scourges.

"All of the focus has been on the issues and the world view as identified by George Bush, and what he regards to be the greatest threat," Layton told a news conference Friday during an NDP convention.

"There has been such a totally disproportionate investment of the world's energy, time and money on the issues that George Bush has defined as the threat to human security.

"(That is) as opposed to the real threats to human security."

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/200609 ... an_060908/

And, FWIW, "9/11 Truth":

[Jeff]

NDP surge is an opening for Canada's left

By Fred Wilson | April 25, 2011


The NDP surge means that there is now a chance to advance progressive politics in Canada by a generation. If the potential electoral breakthrough for the NDP can be realized, it would shift the centre of debate and social consensus to the left, after moving steadily in the other direction for the last generation. The NDP may be even be positioned as a real option for a new government of the centre-left: perhaps later or perhaps sooner.

No wonder that old political institutions and the media thought masters who have never considered the left to have a legitimate role in the mainstream of the nation are now lining up to stop or deflect the change that could be at hand.

The Liberal Party is attacking the NDP with a fury. “Not so fast, Jack,” it is saying as it accuses the NDP of inexperience and spendthrift economics. But I doubt the old LPC attacks will work very well this time because they have advanced a platform which is not very different in its economic fundamentals. In spite of their platform, the Liberals have an enormous credibility gap on the left, and their panic stricken attacks on Jack Layton only widen that gap.

There is a similar refrain echoing from media commentators who are suddenly arguing that NDP policies must now be given a new and closer scrutiny. It’s a bit much from many of these same voices who for years ignored anyone who refused to drink the Kool-Aid of neo-Liberal economics and the “Washington consensus” of globalization, privatization and deregulation. I have yet to hear any of the 5 pm TV analysts suggest that the shift towards the NDP may in part be the result of the global financial crisis and the ensuing brutal recession that deepened social inequality.

...

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/fwilson ... nadas-left

[Jeff]

Even if I didn't have a vested interest in the outcome, it would still be fascinating, observing the other parties go off script so late in the campaign to beat back the NDP.

Conservative and Liberal attack ads:

Layton unveils own form of 'attack'

Acknowledging he is now the target of his opponents, the NDP leader said he was running to be prime minister not to attack the other parties, but to attack "health-care wait times with more doctors and nurses."

Layton also said he would attack unemployment, seniors poverty with increased benefits, and women's inequality.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadav ... e-ad.html#



"Imagine" cleverly resonates, as earlier this month Yoko Ono used her copyright to remove Harper's cover of the song from Youtube.

[Jeff]

[JackRiddler]

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Crossing this threshold in public perception could set off a rapid collapse of the Liberals. This Ignatieff character is just the right mix of piously repulsive and politically neocon to preside over that. The more they now insist on a "don't waste your vote" message, the more they invite people to make the obvious choice for the alternative now "officially" ahead of them. Their best hope might be to announce their preferred coalition partner in advance, which, knowing how parties with the pretension of being legitimate ruling parties are independently of country, they could never do. If the Liberals dropped half of what they currently show, how would it likely split between NDP & Conservative?

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[Peregrine]

Heading down to my local office today. I missed the chance for an early vote, but will be doing so on the 2nd. I think this time around I feel the need to vote strategically. I really do not want to see Harper in for another term, the man is a snake. Layton, at the moment, is very appealing.

[Jeff]

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Crossing this threshold in public perception could set off a rapid collapse of the Liberals. This Ignatieff character is just the right mix of piously repulsive and politically neocon to preside over that. The more they now insist on a "don't waste your vote" message, the more they invite people to make the obvious choice for the alternative now "officially" ahead of them. Their best hope might be to announce their preferred coalition partner in advance, which, knowing how parties with the pretension of being legitimate ruling parties are independently of country, they could never do. If the Liberals dropped half of what they currently show, how would it likely split between NDP & Conservative?

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The EKOS poll also asked for second choices, and the NDP is the second choice of 51.6% of Liberal voters. (The balance split between Conservative, Green and no second choice.) The NDP is actually the first second choice of every other party, making its potential ceiling of votes the highest of all:



At this time in a campaign the Liberals are usually hugging socialists, telling us not to "split the left." Ignatieff's hobbled that effort, for haughty, honest snorts like "I don’t think of the Liberal Party of Canada as a party of the left. I never have." A realignment, with the NDP eclipsing the Liberals federally, has been spoken of for years. (Ed Broadbent spoke it aloud in the 1988 campaign, when it looked early on like it could happen, which helped to ensure that it didn't.) I'm not daring to count on it, but, it's more possible now than it's ever been.

[justdrew]

but do the actual electoral mechanics take second choice into account?

[Jeff]

NDP surge teaches useful lesson on low-engagement voters

Bruce Anderson
Globe and Mail Update
Posted on Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Lots of people who are deeply involved in party politics have very strong opinions about their own and other parties. For them, party brands are like sports-team brands: well defined and hardly ever changing. Whenever I need to be reminded of how this works, I talk to my pals who glorify the Toronto Maple Leafs for reasons not apparent to the rest of the world.

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That brings me to the New Democrats. For those in other parties who are deeply immersed in politics, the NDP is the radical fringe of Canadian politics, the not-so-distant intellectual cousins of Soviet-era communists. The folks who campaign on “make the rich pay,” “nationalize the banks,” abandon free trade, etc. People who may or may not mean well, but are dangerously naïve.

Being very close to politics, especially when other people are moving further away, can occasionally cause a blind spot to develop: You can think that everybody else sees things just the way you do, even if they don't.

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So, in my view a lot of people who aren't normally consumed with politics are looking at the NDP with fresh eyes, as it occupies centre stage in the last days of this election campaign. What do they perceive?

First, a leader with a passionate, friendly, easy manner. A guy who knows his way around a Tim Hortons and looks like he would draw a crowd to his table over a double-double.

They’d hear him say politics has too much mud-slinging and not enough progress on things that count for average folks. They’d listen to him go on about wanting to work with other people and parties, about hiring more doctors and nurses, “rewarding job creators,” “strengthening your pension” and “making your life a little more affordable.” The language is not that of class warfare, and the goals don’t sound weirdly utopian. These voters might compare Mr. Layton’s pitch with the urgings of Stephen Harper to avoid a coalition, to cut taxes, to strengthen law and order. Or the entreaties of Michael Ignatieff to rise up in defense of our democracy. The NDP themes might well compare favourably, as far as themes go.

I’m making no judgment here about the merits of voting one way or another. Nor am I suggesting that voters who take a deeper look at the NDP platform will conclude that it makes sense for them. My point is that strategists in other parties, as the clock winds down on one of the more fascinating electoral contests I can remember, must challenge themselves to be clear-eyed about what some of today's lightly engaged voters see when they see the NDP. To succeed in beating back this new threat requires a no-nonsense understanding of what it's about.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/pol ... le1999334/

[Jeff]

but do the actual electoral mechanics take second choice into account?

No. (Though having a preferential ballot is, not surprisingly, on the NDP's agenda.) It just means that voters who see the chances of their first choice fade may be more likely to vote instead for the NDP than for any other party.

[justdrew]

but do the actual electoral mechanics take second choice into account?

No. (Though having a preferential ballot is, not surprisingly, on the NDP's agenda.) It just means that voters who see the chances of their first choice fade may be more likely to vote instead for the NDP than for any other party.

so it may all amount to having a "new number 2" - but I'd say it looks to me like the race is conservative vs NDP at this point. Looks like they have a chance

[Jeff]

New national numbers from Angus Reid just tweeted by Robert Fife, CTV News Ottawa bureau chief:

CON: 35
NDP: 30
LIB: 22

[Canadian_watcher]

New national numbers from Angus Reid just tweeted by Robert Fife, CTV News Ottawa bureau chief:

CON: 35
NDP: 30
LIB: 22

yahoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DrVolin]

I am worried that the NDP were caught unawares. I think many Canadians seeing the numbers, being part of the pent-up left demand, thinking that the NDP finally has a chance nationally, are looking at their local candidate and seeing... not much. That's why the NDP effort is so focused on Layton. I hope that doesn't deter too many Liberals with a substantial local candidate from switching at that last solitary moment of reflection over the ballot.