Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

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Postby professorpan » Sun Apr 26, 2009 10:30 pm

Cosmic Cowbell wrote:
Jeff wrote:As far as I know, all of the cases reported outside of Mexico have been relatively mild, with no known fatalities. I don't know what that might mean, but it's a curious aspect.


It appears that those whose age falls between the early twenties to about forty-five are at higher risk of death. One would think the very young and the elderly would be more so. Not sure if this helps explain the curiousness or not.


I believe the Spanish flu pandemic killed primarily young adults as well -- children and the elderly had higher survival rates than with most flu outbreaks.

When I was a kid, I interviewed my grandmother for a class project, and she spoke at length about the 1918 flu. Fucking horrible. She watched as her brothers and sisters were buried wrapped in sheets, because there were no coffins available.

A few years back I heard Gina Kolata discussing her book on the 1918 flu and it brought back the stories of my grandmother. Also very detailed and terrifying.
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Postby HMKGrey » Sun Apr 26, 2009 10:31 pm

Re: the age profile of sufferers, someone from Genentech explained it to me that the 18-44 incidence of this virus is what makes it so eligible for pandemic status. He said that typical flu viruses that attack 'babies and old people' are non-starters because these two groups don't travel and do very little mingling. What sets this strain apart from the get go is that it is clearly prevalent in the most sociable age groups - thus making its route to pandemic status very clear and likely.
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Postby monster » Sun Apr 26, 2009 10:44 pm

HMKGrey wrote:What sets this strain apart from the get go is that it is clearly prevalent in the most sociable age groups - thus making its route to pandemic status very clear and likely.


That explains why old/young people might not catch it in the first place, but it doesn't explain why, when they do catch it, they're more likely to recover than 25-44 year olds. That's the part I don't understand.
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Postby Cosmic Cowbell » Sun Apr 26, 2009 10:56 pm

professorpan wrote:When I was a kid, I interviewed my grandmother for a class project, and she spoke at length about the 1918 flu. Fucking horrible. She watched as her brothers and sisters were buried wrapped in sheets, because there were no coffins available.

A few years back I heard Gina Kolata discussing her book on the 1918 flu and it brought back the stories of my grandmother. Also very detailed and terrifying.


My Grandmother lost her Mother in that same epidemic. I have a photo of her and she was quite lovely. Truly hoping this passes quickly.
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Postby chlamor » Sun Apr 26, 2009 10:59 pm

Can we get a demographic breakdown of how the "swine flu dead." Can I call them that?

So tell me please how many of the swine flu victims are wealthy?

Hmm mebbe something else is at work here.

The swine flu hysteria is completely out of control and utterly insane.

Yeah, yeah I know but hey anyone wanting to put there money where their pig virus is and make some bets on this?

I'll give ya' good odds and take you out to dinner after you lose.

Keep or I might suggest get your eye on the ball folks.

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Postby professorpan » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:00 pm

Update Your Pandemic Plan NOW
April 26th, 2009 · No Comments

http://blogs.gartner.com/roberta_witty/ ... -plan-now/

The recent outbreaks of the Swine flu are highlighting the need for organizations to have pandemic plans that address workforce absenteeism rates of 40% or higher. There are 20 laboratory-confirmed human cases in California, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and New York. In fact, we’re in Chicago for the Gartner Business Continuity Management Summit and we’ve already been notified that at least one company planning to attend cannot because they have already initiated their crisis management plan to monitor the swine flu outbreak in their area. With luck, this will be a very minor event as according to the WHO “laboratory testing has found the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir.”

Immediate steps for organizations to take include:

• Go to www.pandemicflu.gov to find out the actions the US government recommends to ensure workforce safety and continuous business operations.

• Download and examine the FFIEC’s “Pandemic Flu Exercise of 2007 After Action Report” immediately, and disseminate their findings across your organization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the only large-scale testing of business pandemic plans ever conducted.

• Download Rick DeLotto’s research note “New U.S. Guidance on IT in Pandemics” dated March 3, 2008.

• Emphasize the urgency of performing personal hygiene disciplines that will inhibit the spread of the virus.

• Identify existing and projected critical skills shortages; and initiate staff cross-training, testing and certification. Make sure that cross-trained personnel are also given the appropriate access rights in your applications. This is the longest lead-time and most disruptive of the improvements.

• Determine which business operations are sustainable, at what level, and likely durations of downtime for normal business operations with staff absentee rates of 40%. Test for various combinations of leaders and skilled staff.

• Testing should start immediately to isolate and remediate problem areas. Testing should be rigorous, inventive, ongoing and documented.

Gartner has many research notes related to pandemic planning and we will continue to update you as to the severity of events and actions you should take as the situation evolves. Please go to www.gartner.com for more information.

Rick DeLotto and Roberta Witty
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Postby lightningBugout » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:04 pm

chlamor wrote:The swine flu hysteria is completely out of control and utterly insane.


How do you figure? The threat of a super-flu has been known for nearly a hundred years. It is entirely possible that within a matter of weeks we will see millions of cases worldwide, and possiby many deaths. If it does not happen this time, it *will* happen another.

Why do you deem it 1) hysteria, 2) out of control and 3) utterly insane?
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Postby professorpan » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:11 pm

Interesting document (PDF), found linked from the Gartner blog I just posted:

http://www.fbiic.gov/public/2008/jan/Pa ... _Jan08.pdf

From the document, published January 2008:

More than 100 individuals from the public and private sectors worked collaboratively to develop the exercise, a testament to the strength of the financial services sector’s public-private partnership. Additionally, we appreciate the input from the experts from outside the financial services sector on important issues such as health care, technology, energy, transportation, and telecommunications.

With more than 2,700 financial organizations voluntarily registering to participate, there was both a clear need and a great value for conducting an exercise on this scale within the United States. Factoring both the number of organizations and the teams they employed to test their plans, the exercise likely involved tens of thousands of individuals.

[snip]

We know that providing the opportunity for organizations to test their plans against a realistic scenario improved awareness of key issues across the sector, as nearly 99 percent of participants said the exercise helped to gauge their organization’s pandemic business continuity planning needs.

This report is an effort to help these organizations benchmark their plans. Using the exercise findings to enhance the financial services sector’s preparedness for a pandemic will be the greatest outcome.
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Postby professorpan » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:18 pm

From the fbiic.gov report listed above:

"On the whole, the exercise revealed that the
largest firms have planned extensively for a
possible pandemic. This work was a key contributor
to the sector’s overall ability to continue
to conduct critical functions and keep markets
viable for the short term even as the simulated
absenteeism rate moved up toward 49 percent.
In fact, the exercise showed that there was little
impact on some operations for short periods at
25 percent absenteeism and generally at 35
percent as well."
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Postby nathan28 » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:26 pm

professorpan wrote:From the fbiic.gov report listed above:

"On the whole, the exercise revealed that the
largest firms have planned extensively for a
possible pandemic. This work was a key contributor
to the sector’s overall ability to continue
to conduct critical functions and keep markets
viable for the short term even as the simulated
absenteeism rate moved up toward 49 percent.
In fact, the exercise showed that there was little
impact on some operations for short periods at
25 percent absenteeism and generally at 35
percent as well."


Quite true... My office was selling tamiflu at $75/week supply in 2007 for employees earning under $150k/year and at $150/week for anyone above. Quite strange, strange enough that I didn't ask re: how they were handling prescriptions, etc., I imagine there was an MD around kind of like those Morning After Vans they had on my college's campus every few months.

Yes, really.

But we haven't heard anything re this flu yet.
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Postby professorpan » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:29 pm

FYI, I'm not taking any position on this novelty spike yet, just posting stuff I find interesting.
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Postby Col. Quisp » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:38 pm

This blog post gives a possible explanation of why young and healthy people die from this new disease. Normally I'd be panicking but for some reason I believe all will be well (which, with my track record, probably means a pandemic is brewing!)

cytokine storm

identified [UPDATED--6 Canadian cases also confirmed] »
Swine flu and deaths in healthy adults--cytokine storm?

Posted on: April 26, 2009 9:00 AM, by Tara C. Smith

Over the last 24 hours, I've received a few comments and even more emails asking about or discussing the possibility of a "cytokine storm" triggered by the H1N1 swine flu reassortant. Is this what's happening in the cases from Mexico? Discussion after the jump...

Let me begin with a bit of background on what's meant by a "cytokine storm." In response to infection, the body has a number of ways to fight back against the invading microbe. Cytokines are one part of this defense. These are molecules produced by a number of different types of cells in response to infection that act as signals to other cells in the body--telling them to divide, or to produce certain proteins, or to cease their production. They assist, basically, in orchestrating portions of the immune response. A "cytokine storm" occurs when this regulation goes haywire--the very molecules that are supposed to be protecting the body end up causing it harm by responding too strongly to the infection. (Note that this is quite over-simplified; the cytokine response itself is incompletely understood, and other players in addition to cytokines are also involved).

This is where the "young and healthy" issue comes into play. Children have immune responses that are still developing, while the elderly tend to lose some immune function with the aging process. However, the middle age group--roughly age 15 to 50, give or take--tend to have an active, vigorous immune response upon invasion by a pathogen. Most of the time, this keeps us relatively free of disease from microbes, but some organisms tend to trigger this type of hyper-response that actually ends up harming the host--in some cases, fatally. This is what we've seen in some cases of H5N1 infection, and what's been induced in mouse models with the 1918 H1N1 strain.

So, are we seeing this with the reassortant swine H1N1 virus, or should we expect to find that it causes this? Is this why reportedly many of the deaths to date are in the "young and healthy"? Right now, we simply don't know. As I mentioned yesterday, the data from Mexico (from media reports, at least) are sparse, and only a handful of cases have been confirmed to be caused by the novel swine flu virus. This makes attempts to extrapolate to any larger trends a risky and imprecise endeavor, and the old adage certainly applies: garbage in, garbage out. So right now (again, from media-reported data), we don't know for sure that there really is a higher number of "young and healthy" dying from this virus than we would expect to see--so whether this trend even exists is a big question mark.

However, even if we do see an excess of deaths in that middle age group, there could be other reasons besides the "cytokine storm." Perhaps this group has exposures that have made them more likely to contract the virus than other age groups, so the greater number of deaths is simply a result of a greater number of exposed individuals. Perhaps they were less likely to have been vaccinated in recent years, meaning they had no cross-protective immunity. (This also is a big question mark, as we don't know, even in vaccinated individuals, that any immunity to human H1N1 viruses would confer any protection). Perhaps they've simply been more likely to be noticed in this outbreak, and thus their cases have received more attention and were more likely to have been worked up (as far as obtaining a culture, etc.) than those in the typical influenza risk groups. There are just too many unknowns right now to address these questions, but certainly they will be investigated as more surveillance data is collected.

Additionally, other clues may come from additional analyses of the virus itself. In H5N1 and the 1918 H1N1 strains, we know there are certain mutations in both of them that have been associated with increased virulence. When all the genes of the novel swine virus are sequenced, the presence or absence of these mutations can be determined, suggesting it may or may not be likely to induce the type of cytokine response that has been associated with the highly virulent strains. Expect an information overload when researchers have more of a chance to examine the virus itself in greater depth...
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Postby monster » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:58 pm

Col. Quisp wrote:This blog post gives a possible explanation of why young and healthy people die from this new disease. Normally I'd be panicking but for some reason I believe all will be well (which, with my track record, probably means a pandemic is brewing!)

cytokine storm


Excellent information Colonel, thanks.

From the comments on that article:

I realize that the best response to an infection is to get professional treatment. However, for academical purposes, I was also wondering: Is there a way to "self-medicate"? For example, can we slow down or weaken our immune system to avoid the hyper reaction? Eg. by drinking alcohol. Now alcohol is fairly toxic and may make matters worse. But how about Cannabis? I heard it may have cytokine storm inhibiting properties, but could find no substantiated info on that one. And then again smoking can also be dangerous. What's your opinion?
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Postby seemslikeadream » Mon Apr 27, 2009 12:46 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kir ... 91579.html

Mexican Lawmaker: Factory Farms Are "Breeding Grounds" of Swine Flu Pandemic

Large-scale swine producers in Mexico deny that their industry is the source of the deadly new influenza strain, saying the animals are all healthy, and that it is scientifically "not possible" for hogs to infect people with the illness. But lawmakers in the eastern state of Veracruz are now charging that large-scale hog and poultry operations are "breeding grounds" of infection that are making people sick and fueling the pandemic.

On Sunday, the state government of Veracruz confirmed swine influenza in a five-year-old girl in the village of La Gloria, located right next to a massive US-owned hog facility. The bodies of two other village children who died in February and March will be exhumed and tested for signs of the illness, local media reports said.

And in the western state of Guerrero, 500 pigs were just killed after becoming ill with swine flu.

The nation's hog industry says it is not to blame for any human illness. "We deny completely that the influenza virus affecting Mexico originated in pigs, because it has been scientifically demonstrated that this is not possible," said a statement issued by the National Organization of Pig Production and Producers and its president, Mario Humberto Quintanilla González.

The group said it had ordered a series of lab tests and sought technical support from the National Autonomous University of Mexico and others, "in order to demonstrate, once again, that pigs are not the cause of the flu that is affecting the country. It must remain clear that the flu problem is caused neither by the proximity to swine operations nor by the consumption of pork meat or pork products."

The statement went on to say, however, that pork producers, "will respect whatever scientific determination is made as to the actual causes that have provoked this health problem."

Meanwhile, one of Mexico's largest producers, Granjas Carroll, a subsidiary of US hog giant Smithfield Foods, issued its own statement saying there was no sign of swine flu at any of its operations in the states of Veracruz and Puebla. The company's huge facility near the town of La Gloria was first mentioned as a possible source of the new human-swine flu outbreak by Tom Philpott at www.grist.org.

According to El Universal newspaper, the company reported no signs of disease in any of its 907 workers, 60,000 breeding sows or 500,000 feeder pigs, all of whom were vaccinated against swine flu. "The press release stated that that the virus was found in people who were not near swine production facilities, and who did not have contact with pigs, and therefore, 'it has been concluded that the contagion has been between humans,'" El Universal reported.

But the industry statement that this disease was not transmitted from pigs to people contradicts virtually all Mexican government statements so far, including Mexico's Health Minister, Jose Angel Cordova, who said the virus, "mutated from pigs, and then at some point was transmitted to humans." Whether they were Mexican pigs or not remains a mystery, of course.

As Philpott pointed out in his post, Mexican newspapers have been reporting for weeks that residents living near Granjas Carroll's massive hog facility at La Gloria are falling ill with severe upper respiratory diseases. One five-year-old girl in the village just tested positive for swine flu - the bodies of two more children who died recently are being exhumed.

According to an April 5 article in La Jornada newspaper, "Clouds of flies emanate from the lagoons where Granjas Carroll discharges the fecal waste from its hog barns - as well as air pollution that has already caused an epidemic of respiratory infections in the town."

More than 400 people had already been treated for respiratory infections, and more than 60 percent of the town's 3,000 residents had reported getting sick, the paper said. State officials disputed that claim, and said the illnesses were caused by cold weather and dust in the air.

The problems began in early March, when many neighbors of the hog CAFO (confined animal feeding operation) became sick with colds and flu that quickly turned into lung infections, causing local health officials to impose a "sanitary cordon" around the area and begin a mass program of vaccination and home fumigation.

"According to state agents of the Mexican Social Security Institute, the vector of this outbreak are the clouds of flies that come out of the hog barns, and the waste lagoons into which the Mexican-US company spews tons of excrement," La Jornada reported. "Even so, state and federal authorities paid no attention to the residents, until today."

The state legislature of Veracruz has demanded that the Smithfield subsidiary turn over all documents and environmental certifications on its three massive waste lagoons, but so far, the company has only supplied information on one of them, news reports said today.

On Friday, the chairman of the state legislature's Committee on the Environment, Marco Antonio Núñez López, called on Veracruz's Secretary of Health to impose a "sanitary cordon" around all hog and poultry CAFOs in area - as well as bus terminals and airports - to prevent the spread of influenza among the population.

He said the factory farms should be considered "breeding grounds" (focos rojos - which might also translate as "hot spots") of potential infection for the cities of Veracruz, Boca del Río, Coatzacoalcos, Córdoba, Orizaba, Xalapa and Perote.

"I asked the Secretary to inform us about what was going on in La Gloria with Granjas Carroll, because avian flu is spreading from birds to pigs, and from there to humans, and that urgent measures are needed," Núñez López told reporters.

He was referring to another CAFO, this one containing poultry, called Granjas de Bachoco, located near the state capital of Xalapa. He said there was an epidemic of avian flu among the chickens being raised there, but that this was being kept quiet so as not to interfere with exports. Influenza-infected chickens raise the risk of cross-infection to pigs in the same area, scientists say.

Meanwhile, on the other side of Mexico, about halfway between Mexico City and Acapulco in the town of Cocula, Guerrero, health officials ordered the destruction of 500 pigs infected with swine flu, local newspapers reported. One hundred of the animals fell sick at the Rancho La Joya operation and were sacrificed last Wednesday. On Thursday, 400 more infected pigs were killed.

There is no proof that this illness emerged on a Mexican hog factory farm, or in Mexico, or even in hogs. But we do know that Mexican pigs with swine flu are being destroyed. And we know that Mexican lawmakers think that CAFOs are making people sick.

And now we know that a five-year-old girl in La Gloria has swine flu. I wonder if the CDC is going to go check on her, and see how she contracted that virus.





http://www.grist.org/article/2009-04-25 ... smithfield


The outbreak of a new flu strain—a nasty mash-up of swine, avian, and human viruses—has infected 1000 people in Mexico and the U.S., killing 68. The World Health Organization warned Saturday that the outbreak could reach global pandemic levels.

Is Smithfield Foods, the world’s largest pork packer and hog producer, linked to the outbreak? Smithfield operates massive hog-raising operations Perote, Mexico, in the state of Vera Cruz, where the outbreak originated. The operations, grouped under a Smithfield subsidiary called Granjas Carrol, raise 950,000 hogs per year, according to the company Web site—a level nearly equal to Smithfield’s total U.S. hog production.

On Friday, the U.S. disease-tracking blog Biosurveillance published a timeline of the outbreak containing this nugget, dated April 6 (major tip of the hat to Paula Hay, who alerted me to the Smithfield link on the Comfood listserv and has written about it on her blog, Peak Oil Entrepreneur):

Residents [of Perote] believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to “flu.” However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.
From what I can tell, the possible link to Smithfield has not been reported in the U.S. press. Searches of Google News and the websites of the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal all came up empty. The link is being made in the Mexican media, however. “Granjas Carroll, causa de epidemia en La Gloria,” declared a headline in the Vera Cruz-based paper La Marcha. No need to translate that, except to point out that La Gloria is the village where the outbreak seems to have started. Judging from the article, Mexican authorities treat hog CAFOs with just as much if not more indulgence than their peers north of the border, to the detriment of surrounding communities and the general public health. Get this:

De acuerdo con uno de los habitantes de la comunidad, Eli Ferrer Cortés, los desechos fecales y orgánicos que produce Granjas Carroll no son tratados adecuadamente, lo que genera contaminación del agua y del viento en la region.
My rough translation: According to one community resident, the organic and fecal waste produced by Granjas Carrol isn’t adequately treated, creating water and air pollution in the region. I witnessed—and smelled—the same thing in Hardin County, Iowa, a couple of years ago, another area marked by intensive industrial hog production. The article goes on to say that area residents have long complained of “fetid odors” in the air and water, and swarms of flies hovering around waste lagoons. Like their counterparts who live in CAFO-heavy U.S. areas, they also complain of respiratory ailments. Now, with 30 percent of the area’s residents now infected with the virulent flu bug, people are demanding that state and federal authorities inspect hog operations there. So far, reports La Marcha, the response has been: nada.

The Mexico City daily La Jornada has also made the link. According to the newspaper, the Mexican health agency IMSS has acknowledged that the orginal carrier for the flu could be the “clouds of flies” that multiply in the Smithfield subsidiary’s manure lagoons.

I’ll be in touch with contacts in Mexico as this story develops —and I’ll be curious to see whether the U.S. media explores the link with Smithfield’s Mexico operation.





http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/bios ... vents.html

Swine Flu in Mexico- Timeline of Events
Introduction

At Veratect, we operate two operations centers based in the United States (one in the Washington, DC area and one in Seattle, WA) that provide animal and human infectious disease event detection and tracking globally. Both operations centers are organizationally modeled after our National Weather Service using a distinct methodology inspired by the natural disaster and meteorology communities. Our analysts handle information in the native vernacular language and have been thoroughly trained in their discipline, which include cultural-specific interpretation of the information. We are currently partnered with 14 organizations that provide us with direct ground observations in 238 countries. We are a multi-source, near-real time event detection and tracking organization with years of experience in this discipline.

March 30

Veratect reported that a 47-year-old city attorney for Cornwall was hospitalized in a coma at Ottawa General Hospital following a recent trip to Mexico. Family members reported the individual voluntarily reported to the hospital after gradually feeling ill upon returning from his trip on 22 March. The source stated that the hospital did not know the cause of illness. The case was reportedly on a respirator and awaiting a blood transfusion, but sources did not provide symptoms or a suggested cause of illness. This information was available in our web portal to all clients, including CDC and multiple US state and local public health authorities, however no one had connected this man’s illness with a potential crisis in Mexico.

April 2

Local media source Imagen del Golfo reported that state health officials recorded a 15% increase in disease over an unspecified period in the highland areas of Veracruz, which includes La Gloria. The increase was primarily due to higher levels of upper respiratory disease and gastroenteritis. Specifically, officials noted an increase in pneumonia and bronchial pneumonia cases. Health officials attributed the increase to seasonal climate changes.

April 6

Veratect reported local health officials declared a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in La Gloria, Perote Municipality, Veracruz State, Mexico. Sources characterized the event as a "strange" outbreak of acute respiratory infection, which led to bronchial pneumonia in some pediatric cases. According to a local resident, symptoms included fever, severe cough, and large amounts of phlegm. Health officials recorded 400 cases that sought medical treatment in the last week in La Gloria, which has a population of 3,000; officials indicated that 60% of the town’s population (approximately 1,800 cases) has been affected. No precise timeframe was provided, but sources reported that a local official had been seeking health assistance for the town since February.

Residents claimed that three pediatric cases, all under two years of age, died from the outbreak. However, health officials stated that there was no direct link between the pediatric deaths and the outbreak; they stated the three fatal cases were "isolated" and "not related" to each other.

Residents believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to "flu." However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.

Local health officials had implemented several control measures in response to the outbreak. A health cordon was established around La Gloria. Officials launched a spraying and cleaning operation that targeted the fly suspected to be the disease vector. State health officials also implemented a vaccination campaign against influenza, although sources noted physicians ruled out influenza as the cause of the outbreak. Finally, officials announced an epidemiological investigation that focused on any cases exhibiting symptoms since 10 March.

This information was available in our web portal to all clients, including CDC and multiple US state and local public health authorities.

April 16

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) indicated that an unspecified number of atypical pneumonia cases were detected at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Reforma, Oaxaca State, Mexico. No information was provided about symptoms or treatment for the cases. NSS Oaxaca reported that rumors were circulating that human coronavirus was spreading at the hospital; sources did not provide any response to these statements from the hospital or health officials.

Laboratory samples were sent to Mexico City for analysis; results were expected to be released sometime next week. According to NSS Oaxaca, health officials had intensified preventive measures aimed at mitigating further spread of the disease. Sources reported that the SSO also implemented a sanitary cordon around the hospital.

This information was pushed to CDC and several US state and local public health authorities in an email alert notification provided by Veratect.

April 20

Veratect was urgently asked to provide access to the VeraSight Global platform on 20 April by a client in the US public health community, and indicated they had received word from their counterparts in Canada that Mexican authorities had requested support. This client speculated whether notification of all southern U.S. border states’ public health authorities should be done and were confused as to why the CDC had not issued an advisory. Veratect contacted the CDC Emergency Operations Center to sensitize them about the situation in Mexico. CDC indicated they were already dealing with the crisis of recently detected H1N1 swine influenza in California and possibly Texas.

April 21

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) confirmed two adults died from atypical pneumonia at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico. One of the cases was a 39-year-old female; the other case was an adult male of unspecified age. After the deaths, the hospital established a quarantine in the emergency room due to initial concerns that avian influenza was responsible for the cases. However, the SSO subsequently stated that neither avian influenza nor coronaviruses, including that which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), were the source of infection. Additionally, the SSO denied the cases represented an epidemic. According to local sources, the SSO indicated that the atypical pneumonia cases were caused by an unspecified bacterial pathogen and were treatable with antibiotics. Sources indicated a total of 16 additional patients exhibited signs of respiratory infection; none of these patients exhibited complications.

Veratect sources indicated the 39-year-old female was treated at the hospital for five days before dying on 13 April. This case was reportedly immunocompromised; in addition to acute respiratory symptoms, she also had diabetes and diarrhea. The SSO contacted 300 people that had been in contact with the woman; sources stated that between 33-61 contacts exhibited symptoms of respiratory disease, but none showed severe complications. The SSO characterized the incident as an "isolated case;" they noted that over 5,000 cases of pneumonia occur annually in Oaxaca.

Another local source reported the SSO launched surveillance measures in the former residential areas of the two fatal cases and in other targeted geographic areas. No additional information was provided regarding the second fatal case at the hospital.

Veratect reported that the Oaxaca State Congress Permanent Committee on Health had undertaken an investigation into the cases. The committee inspected the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso on 20 April. The director of the medical school at the University Autónoma "Benito Juárez" de Oaxaca (UABJO), along with other medical academics, publicly requested that national health authorities investigate the cases of atypical pneumonia. No information was provided indicating that national health authorities plan to investigate the matter. The director of the medical school also requested the SSO furnish evidence showing that the cases were negative for avian influenza, SARS, and other severe pathogens; his request was echoed by readers commenting on an online user forum.

Veratect also reported the National Ministry of Health issued a health alert due to a significant increase in influenza cases during the spring season in Mexico. Officials indicated that there have been 14 influenza outbreaks throughout the country. The most heavily affected states are Baja California, Chihuahua, Distrito Federal (Mexico City), Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Veracruz. Local case counts were not provided.

Officials stated that 4,167 probable cases of influenza, 313 of which were confirmed, have been reported throughout the country in 2009. Case counts for suspected and confirmed influenza cases have tripled in 2009 as compared to the equivalent time period in 2008. The National Institute of Respiratory Diseases recorded two fatal cases of influenza in 2009, but specific dates and locations were not provided.

Health officials stated they were unsure precisely why the incidence of influenza had increased. However, they believed the increased presence of influenza B, in combination with influenza A, was a contributing factor. In response, officials advised anyone exhibiting influenza symptoms to avoid self-medication and seek medical care immediately. Officials had also enhanced epidemiological surveillance for influenza. Lastly, health officials had focused efforts on providing antiviral medications and influenza vaccinations to the most vulnerable segments of the population. According to the Mexican Ministry of Health, 44.3% of the national population was vaccinated against influenza in 2005-2006.

Veratect sensitized the International Federation of Red Cross who in turn requested broader access be provided to the Pan-American Disaster Response Unit (PADRU). Veratect moved to notify several US state and local public health authorities, providing the caveat the situation in Mexico remained unclear due to pending laboratory results. Veratect reached out to World Health Organization (WHO) operations, informing them the Veratect team was on an alert posture and available for situational awareness support. They indicated they and their subordinate, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) were now aware of the situation but had no further information. Veratect also extended contact to the British Columbia Center for Disease Control and offered assistance in tracking the events in Mexico. All contacts indicated laboratory results were pending.

April 22

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) indicated 16 employees at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico had contracted respiratory disease. However, the SSO denied these cases were connected to the recently identified cases of atypical pneumonia at the hospital. No information was provided indicating how many employees work at the hospital or whether the number of respiratory disease cases was higher than average. The source reported that "fear" persisted among hospital physicians concerning the possible presence of a deadly bacteria or virus circulating in the hospital. One anonymous hospital employee criticized hospital management as "unfair" for not providing clear information regarding the first fatal atypical pneumonia case.

An additional source reported the cause of the atypical pneumonia cases remained unknown; it stated that bacteria or virus could have caused the cases. In contrast, according to an 18 April report, the SSO indicated that the atypical pneumonia cases were caused by an unspecified bacterial pathogen and were treatable with antibiotics. The reason for this discrepancy was unclear at this time.

The Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), a national health entity, had now joined the SSO in responding to the cases; reports did not indicate the Mexican National Ministry of Health had joined in the response efforts. The IMSS extended the sanitary cordon surrounding the hospital. Patients exhibiting flu-like symptoms would be sent to the hospital’s epidemiology department for further study. IMSS instructed physicians to hospitalize respiratory disease patients immediately if they meet certain standards for severity of symptoms. Lastly, the hospital’s emergency room would remain closed for an additional 15 days so that cleaning and preventive disinfection could be carried out.

Veratect also reported the Mexican Ministry of Health indicated that an "unusual" outbreak of laboratory-confirmed influenza caused five deaths from 17-19 April 2009 in Mexico City, Mexico. The deaths occurred at the following three hospitals: el Hospital de la Secretaría de Salud (2), el Institute Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias (2), and el Hospital Ángeles del Pedregal (1). According to unofficial sources, the fatal case count was higher than that provided by officials. There were currently 120 influenza cases hospitalized throughout Mexico City. National health officials indicated that influenza vaccines were sold out in Mexico City and that they were attempting to acquire additional supplies of the vaccine.

At this point, the Mexican Health Secretary reportedly stated there was an influenza epidemic in Mexico City and throughout the rest of the county. In response to the cases, the official stated health authorities would launch a public awareness and vaccination campaigns. He stated that 400,000 vaccines would be administered, primarily to medical staff; it was unclear whether these efforts would be focused on Mexico City or any other geographic area. Health officials also ordered the provision of special masks, gloves, and gowns for medical personnel that were in contact with influenza cases.

A total of 13 fatal cases of influenza were reported in Mexico City in the past three weeks. However, several other media sources reported that the 13 deaths were recorded since 18 March 2009; the reason for this discrepancy was unclear. Sources reported a total of 20 fatal cases of influenza throughout Mexico over the disputed timeframe. The other cases were located in San Luis Potosí (4), Baja California (2), and Oaxaca (1). The Director of Epidemiology at the National Center for Epidemiological Surveillance and Disease Control characterized the outbreak as "quite unusual."

No information was provided indicating that the strain of influenza itself was unusual. Rather, several sources indicated that it was "unusual" to record this many fatal influenza cases during this time of year. Influenza cases normally peak from October to February, while these cases had occurred during Mexico’s spring season.

Canada announced a national alert for travelers returning from Mexico with respiratory disease, beginning a campaign of public media announcements. Potentially ill contacts were identified returning from Mexico and isolated in Canada. Internet blogs begin to spin up. CDC indicates concern about the events unfolding in Mexico. Veratect sensitizes the US community physician social network managed by Ozmosis.

April 23

Veratect reported the Secretary General of the Oaxaca Ministry of Health Workers Union confirmed that a doctor and a nurse from the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico were under observation for suspected "atypical" pneumonia. This contradicted statements made by the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) on 22 April that 16 hospital employees contracted respiratory disease, but none of the cases exhibited atypical pneumonia.

The union official stated that a review by the Oaxaca State Board of Medical Arbitration indicated that the hospital faced serious difficulties caused by overcrowding; he stated that overcrowded conditions created a "breeding ground" for the spread of various epidemics. According to the official, the hospital has 120 beds but the number of patients hospitalized had at times surpassed 240.

Other sources reported that the Department of Livestock, Fisheries, Rural Development, and Feed (SAGARPA) declared on 20 April that Oaxaca, Mexico was free of avian influenza. SAGARPA stated that authorities should remain vigilant in monitoring for the disease among birds.

Canadian local health officials stated that a Rouge Valley resident with influenza-like illness was being monitored at Scarborough Centenary Hospital in Scarborough, Ontario. The precaution was being taken in accordance with an alert issued by the Ministry of Health asking hospitals to watch for severe respiratory illnesses in travelers returning from Mexico. Despite the warning, the Ministry had indicated that evidence is not suggestive of a novel pathogen or influenza strain, according to the source. A representative for the Rouge Valley Health System stated that this case is being monitored related to the alert. The source did not specifically indicate symptoms or that the person had traveled to Mexico. No additional information regarding the case, including age or health status, was reported.

The source stated that hospital employees were asking any patients admitted to the hospital if they had recently traveled to Mexico, which according to the source was a popular tourist destination for Durham-region residents.

Additional Canadian sources indicated Southlake Regional Health Centre officials treated a patient with influenza-like illness (ILI) who recently returned from Mexico. The Ministry of Health recently notified Southlake, in addition to health units across the country, that an outbreak of severe respiratory disease was affecting areas of Mexico; ill travelers returning from that region with ILI symptoms were encouraged to be monitored. Sources did not provide any specific information about the case, including age or current treatment status. Information regarding the individual’s travel to Mexico was also not provided, including destinations and duration of time in country.

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) noted that an Ontario resident who returned from Mexico on 22 March experienced severe respiratory illness, but has fully recovered and was not considered connected to the current situation. Veratect recently reported on 30 March that a public official from Cornwall, Ontario was hospitalized with an unknown illness following a trip to Mexico; however, it is unclear if the cases are related, or if this was the case referenced by PHAC officials.

Veratect assesses the situation and notes the following:

Affected areas:

Oaxaca, Distrito Federal, San Luis Potosí, Baja California

Distance to nearest international airport:

• Oaxaca airport, located approximately 150 miles from Reforma, is connected via non-stop air traffic to Houston
• Mexico City (Distrito Federal) airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to many cities in the US, Canada, Europe and Latin America, with the most outbound traffic to Los Angeles, Frankfurt, Houston, Dallas, and Amsterdam
• San Luis Potosí airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to Dallas and Houston
• Mexicali airport in Baja California is connected via non-stop traffic to Los Angeles
• Veracruz airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to Houston

Large mass gatherings:

Semana Santa (April ~April 3 – 12, Palm Sunday to Easter Sunday), which is Mexico’s second largest holiday. Mexico’s population is approximately 90% Catholic, which results in substantial population migration patterns during this time period. For instance, in Ixtapalapa (in Mexico City), one million people visit for Semana Santa. Other well-known sites for the holiday include Pátzcuaro, San Cristobal de las Casas (Chiapas), and Taxco. Veratect notes substantial population migration has just occurred that could facilitate the spread of respiratory disease.

Civil Unrest:

The recent surge in organized crime and drug-related violence in Mexico, including homicides, kidnappings, extortion, and theft, has disproportionately impacted Mexican states along the Pacific Coast and U.S.-Mexico border. This factor may confound situational awareness of respiratory disease in Mexico and contribute to problems in epidemiological investigation and response measures. Baja California is one of five states within this region that currently accounts for more than 75 percent of Mexico's drug-related homicides, and has recorded high levels of drug seizures and police corruption cases. Veracruz, a state with high drug cartel activity in the Gulf of Mexico, has recorded little violence, while the state of Oaxaca to the southwest, recently recorded the assassination of a political party leader. Mexico City, in the center of the country, recently arrested a major drug cartel leader, and recorded few homicides this month. The levels of unrest in Hidalgo, San Luis Potosi, and Tlaxcala, however, are very low, and have not reported a single homicide related to organized crime in the past month.


Veratect issues notification to additional public health authorities in two states. Veratect reaches out to the Pan American Health Organization emergency operations team but is unable to establish contact. Veratect notes no publicly available English language reporting from ProMED, HealthMap, FluNET, CDC, ECDC, or WHO about the unfolding events in Mexico. Many of Veratect’s clients, including Canadian, ask why an alert has not been issued by the US to sensitize their healthcare community.

April 24

Veratect continues to process a dramatic increase in reporting on the situation in Mexico.

WHO requests access to the Veratect system. Veratect is aware of laboratory samples from Mexico are positive for “swine flu” H1N1, a novel virus. World media are now aware of the situation in Mexico. CDC issues a press statement, as does WHO.

Veratect notifies the private US clinical laboratory community and activates a Twitter feed (twitter.com/veratect) to enable more rapid updating of information.
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Postby jingofever » Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:50 am

929 influenza Discharged, 929 patients who had influenza.

That is a Google translated link. The gist is that the influenza is no big deal.
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