How Bad Is Global Warming?

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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Nordic » Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:05 pm

It'll be the plants that exterminate us. They were here first, they started this whole thing, we only exist at their mercy. In fact we and the other critters in the Animal kingdom who live on Oxygen were created by them, for them. We serve them. They give themselves to us to survive. Food, air, everything. We distribute their seeds (usually unconsciously). Without them we die. But they sure don't need us to survive. It's almost like we're their pets.

Most people don't realize this.

Plants are sentient. They are quiet, and like to stand still and watch everything, but they rule the planet.

If they want to wipe us out, they will.
"He who wounds the ecosphere literally wounds God" -- Philip K. Dick
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:09 pm

I've never seen this image before, or really any of Male, the Maldives, but it's flabbergasting.
This is a broader news item backing up the philosophy behind my environmental justice project playing out on a local scale here.

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Why climate change is really, really unfair

With his 2015 encyclical “Laudato Si,” Pope Frances went further than perhaps anyone has before to reframe the entire debate around climate change by focusing on the world’s poor and the duty to protect them from environmental harms that they did not cause themselves.

Now, new research in the journal Scientific Reports has underscored the pope’s message by showing that when it comes to climate change, it is indeed the countries with the most to lose that tend to contribute to the problem least — and also the other way round. The countries that contribute most to the problem — such as China and the United States, the current top two emitters — tend to show less relative vulnerability to the impact compared with nations that have quite low levels of emissions, the research finds.

“The general rule is, at a global scale, if you’re a nation that is going to suffer from climate change, you’re very likely not contributing to the problem,” says James Watson, a professor in the school of geography at the University of Queensland in Australia who also works with the Wildlife Conservation Society on climate change. Watson conducted the study with two colleagues from the University of Queensland.

“That’s the general rule that we found,” Watson continues. “But it’s completely inequitable.”

Many have observed this — including small island nations, which successfully lobbied to have the extra-protective climate target of 1.5 degrees Celsius included in the Paris climate agreement in December — but the new research has done something else: quantified it.

To do so, Watson and his colleagues compared two datasets. The first is a dataset kept by the World Resources Institute of the present-day emissions of countries around the world. Clearly, the relative contributions to the problem are quite unbalanced. The study notes that just 10 countries currently contribute more than 60 percent of all emissions, and a single one, China, contributes more than 20 percent (or did in 2010, which was the year used for the study).

The second dataset is a “Climate Vulnerability Monitor” kept by the humanitarian group DARA, which ranks countries according to vulnerability based on measures such as exposure to sea-level rise and drought, health hazards, risks of extremes or disasters, and more. Here, 17 countries were rated as “acutely vulnerable,” and they tended to be either island nations such as Vanuatu or African nations such as Gambia.

And the result? Sure enough, the research found — based on 2010 emissions and 2010 vulnerability levels — widespread inequity. The study noted, “20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. … Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change.”

The research also looked toward the future, when the number of climate-vulnerable countries grows as climate change itself becomes worse. In 2030, there are expected to be 62 “acutely” vulnerable countries, rather than 17. Again, small island nations and African nations lead the way. And inequity, the study found, is expected to be even worse.

Climate equity concerns were a key factor in the decision in Paris late last year to include the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature target in a historic climate accord. The idea of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has long been championed by small island nations, as well as a growing body of climate-vulnerable nations, and for understandable reasons; it limits their impacts.

However, it is generally agreed upon that the world is well off course if we want to hold warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. (We are currently at about 1 degree warmer than the late 19th century.) Indeed, many scientists say it won’t be possible without overshooting the goal and then coming back down again thanks to future technologies that will be capable of removing carbon dioxide from the air on a vast scale.

Granted, although the effects of climate change may be very disproportionate, it’s also becoming clear that the major emitters are also going to see their share of problems. Recent research, for instance, points to a major warming of waters off the U.S. East Coast that could have large implications for fisheries, storms, and sea-level rise.

So it’s not that the major emitters won’t suffer any impacts — but that those impacts aren’t likely to be distributed across the globe in proportion to emissions. Watson likens the current research on climate inequity to prior findings about secondhand smoke: “The people suffering from the impacts of smoking aren’t the smokers themselves, it’s the people next door,” he says.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:45 pm

Most of the Maldives are beautiful and relatively untouched.

But Male.... wow. Its a wonder that its there, and a bit of a folly in many ways - building skyscrapers on the ocean. But like so many islands in tropical waters they are up against it. I've always wanted to go there just for the cognitive dissonance of it.

The effects aren't necessarily disproportionate tho. Australia cops it heaps from climate change these days and yet significant, well influential, proportions of the population still don't accept its real. It effects farming communities here but many of them are still in denial.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:08 pm

There is nothing we can do that will stop the warming and expanding seas. Even if we shut down ever source of carboniferous emissions, our atmosphere will continue warming for decades afterward.

We had our real first snowfall last evening - 4" (10cm), although Albany10 miles north of me, recorded only 1.6" (4cm)

This is what has fallen here this winter:

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We usually get 59" (151cm) per winter.

My region is supposed to be one of the relative wetter climes these days. Well, safer than the areas suffering widespread long term and growing drought.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Thu Feb 11, 2016 5:21 pm

The Rich and the Corporate remain in their hundred-year fever visions of Bolsheviks taking their stuff - JackRiddler
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:49 am

I really do not believe it could be, but rather that it will be..
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Sun Feb 14, 2016 2:33 am

Two-Thirds of the World Faces Severe Water Shortages

By NICHOLAS ST. FLEUR FEB. 12, 2016

Image
Researchers used a computer model to divide the world into grids measuring approximately 1,200 square miles each. They then analyzed the monthly water demand and availability in each grid to determine scarcity level. Credit Mesfin M. Mekonnen and Arjen Y. Hoekstra

About four billion people, or two-thirds of the world’s population, face severe water shortages during at least one month every year, far more than was previously thought, according to Arjen Y. Hoekstra, a professor of water management at the University of Twente in the Netherlands.

In a paper published Friday in the journal Science Advances, Dr. Hoekstra and his colleague Mesfin M. Mekonnen designed a computer model to create what they say is a more accurate picture of water scarcity around the world. Severe water scarcity can lead to crop failure and low crop yields, which could cause food price increases as well as famine and widespread starvation.

An area experiences severe water scarcity when its farms, industries and households consume double the amount of water available in that area.

“That means that groundwater levels are falling, lakes are drying up, less water is flowing in rivers, and water supplies for industry and farmers are threatened,” Dr. Hoekstra said in an email.

Not everyone would suffer equally. In more affluent countries, severe water scarcity could mean water rations for showering and gardening, while in very poor countries it could lead to shortages of drinking water.

Half of the four billion people who experience conditions of severe water scarcity at least one month of the year live in either China or India, Dr. Hoeskstra said. Of the remaining two billion, the majority live mostly in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico and the western and southern parts of the United States, such as California, Texas and Florida.

Previous studies had estimated that between 1.7 and 3.1 billion people were affected by extreme water shortages. But according to Dr. Hoekstra, those studies either used measurements that were too general in size or used yearly averages that were not as precise as monthly data.

“Freshwater scarcity is a major risk to the global economy, affecting four billion people directly,” Dr. Hoekstra said. “But since the remaining people in the world receive part of their food from the affected areas, it involves us all.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/13/science/two-thirds-of-the-world-faces-severe-water-shortages.html
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Nordic » Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:50 am

I can tell it already, this summer in the US, especially in the west, is gonna be a doozy. We had a few hot clear days last week of 90+. In February. You can just sense it here. The ocean has warmed up in a very weird way and you can feel it miles away. It's changing fast.

I don't want to be here.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:08 am

The El Nino is easing Nordic so it might be a bit mellower in a few months.

El Niño remains strong, but continues its gradual decline. Climate models suggest a return to neutral levels in the second quarter of 2016.

Close to the equator, the surface of the Pacific Ocean has now cooled by 0.5 °C since the El Niño peaked in late 2015. Below the ocean surface, cooler than average waters now extend into the central tropical Pacific Ocean. In the atmosphere, trade winds have recently returned to near-normal levels in the central and eastern Pacific, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been strongly negative in recent weeks. During Australia's northern wet season, it is not unusual to see big fluctuations in the SOI due to the passage of tropical systems, and hence its value may not be representative of the overall ENSO state.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Nordic » Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:14 am

Actually that's the problem. El Niño gave us a "normal" winter here! Now it's back to the Arizona-like heat, endless sun, and massive drought. Crops are going to fail. We'll have water for this year because of our normal winter, but unless there's another El Niño next year, were seriously fucked here in the western US. Look for weeks on end of 120 degree heat in the San Juaquin valley this summer.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:09 am

yeah sorry... I was thinking with my "this side of the ocean" head on...
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby backtoiam » Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:42 am

can we have an amen for a fucking sock puppet? no? evidently i was mistaken.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:43 am

backtoiam » 15 Feb 2016 18:42 wrote:can we have an amen for a fucking sock puppet? no? evidently i was mistaken.


Care to spell that out?
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:05 am

Nordic » Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:14 am wrote:Actually that's the problem. El Niño gave us a "normal" winter here! Now it's back to the Arizona-like heat, endless sun, and massive drought. Crops are going to fail. We'll have water for this year because of our normal winter, but unless there's another El Niño next year, were seriously fucked here in the western US. Look for weeks on end of 120 degree heat in the San Juaquin valley this summer.


Do you get the sense that you will have a good amount of water? That it didn't run off into the ocean or hit the wrong areas? I know that was the fear, coupled with mudslides, but luckily it doesn't seem like that happened as much as they predicted.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:17 pm

backtoiam » Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:42 am wrote:can we have an amen for a fucking sock puppet? no? evidently i was mistaken.


Please explain this off topic statement, backtoiam.
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