How Bad Is Global Warming?

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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:18 pm

The melting of Antarctica was already really bad. It just got worse.

A hundred years from now, humans may remember 2014 as the year that we first learned that we may have irreversibly destabilized the great ice sheet of West Antarctica, and thus set in motion more than 10 feet of sea level rise.

Meanwhile, 2015 could be the year of the double whammy — when we learned the same about one gigantic glacier of East Antarctica, which could set in motion roughly the same amount all over again. Northern Hemisphere residents and Americans in particular should take note — when the bottom of the world loses vast amounts of ice, those of us living closer to its top get more sea level rise than the rest of the planet, thanks to the law of gravity.

The findings about East Antarctica emerge from a new paper just out in Nature Geoscience by an international team of scientists representing the United States, Britain, France and Australia. They flew a number of research flights over the Totten Glacier of East Antarctica — the fastest-thinning sector of the world’s largest ice sheet — and took a variety of measurements to try to figure out the reasons behind its retreat. And the news wasn’t good: It appears that Totten, too, is losing ice because warm ocean water is getting underneath it.

“The idea of warm ocean water eroding the ice in West Antarctica, what we’re finding is that may well be applicable in East Antarctica as well,” says Martin Siegert, a co-author of the study and who is based at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.

The floating ice shelf of the Totten Glacier covers an area of 90 miles by 22 miles. It it is losing an amount of ice “equivalent to 100 times the volume of Sydney Harbour every year,” notes the Australian Antarctic Division.

That’s alarming, because the glacier holds back a much more vast catchment of ice that, were its vulnerable parts to flow into the ocean, could produce a sea level rise of more than 11 feet — which is comparable to the impact from a loss of the West Antarctica ice sheet. And that’s “a conservative lower limit,” says lead study author Jamin Greenbaum, a PhD candidate at the University of Texas at Austin.

Image

In its alignment with the land and the sea, the Totten Glacier is similar to the West Antarctic glaciers, which also feature ice shelves that slope out from the vast sheet of ice on land and extend into the water. These ice shelves are a key source of instability, because if ocean waters beneath them warm, they can lose ice rapidly, allowing the ice sheet behind them to flow more quickly into the sea.

The researchers used three separate types of measurements taken during their flights — gravitational measurements, radar and laser altimetry — to get a glimpse of what might be happening beneath the massive glacier, whose ice shelves are more than 1,600 feet thick in places. Using radar, they could measure the ice’s thickness. Meanwhile, by measuring the pull of the Earth’s gravity on the airplane in different places, the scientists were able to determine just how far below that ice the seafloor was.

The result was the discovery of two undersea troughs or valleys beneath the ice shelf — regions where the seafloor slopes downward, allowing a greater depth of water beneath the floating ice. These cavities or subsea valleys, the researchers suggest, may explain the glacier’s retreat — they could allow warmer deep waters to get underneath the ice shelf, accelerating its melting.

In this particular area of Antarctica, Greenbaum says, a warmer layer of ocean water offshore is actually deeper than the colder layers above it, because of the saltwater content of the warm water (which increases its density). And the canyons may allow that warm water access to the glacier base. “What we found here is that there are seafloor valleys deeper than the depth of the maximum temperature measured near the glacier,” Greenbaum says.

One of these canyons is three miles wide, in a region that was previously believed to simply hold ice lying atop solid earth. On the contrary, the new study suggests the ice is instead afloat.

The availability of warm water, and the observed melting, notes the study, “support the idea that the behaviour of Totten Glacier is an East Antarctic analogue to ocean-driven retreat underway in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The global sea level potential of 3.5 m flowing through Totten Glacier alone is of similar magnitude to the entire probable contribution of the WAIS.”

For Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University, the new research hints at a possible solution to a question that scientists have long had about the planet’s past — and in particular the Pliocene epoch, beginning 5.3 million years ago, when sea levels were dramatically higher, by as much as 40 meters.

“The sea-level indicators from the Pliocene have suggested that an important amount of ice came out of East Antarctica into the ocean,” says Alley. “Sedimentary records offshore pointed in the same way, and recent modeling…shows the strong potential for this to have happened. This new paper adds to the evidence — the pieces are fitting together.”

One limitation of the study is that the scientists were not able to directly measure the temperature of ocean water that is reaching the glacier itself. While this could be done with robotic underwater vehicles or other methods, that wasn’t part of the study at this time. Thus, the conclusions are more focused on inferring the vulnerability of the glacier based on a number of different pieces of evidence — topped off by the fact that the glacier is, indeed, retreating.

“What we need now is a confirmation of the findings of the paper from oceanographic data, because it is one thing to find potential pathways for warm water to intrude the cavity, it is another to show that this is actually happening,” observes Eric Rignot, an Antarctica expert at the University of California, Irvine. “This paper comes short of the latter, but other research efforts are underway to get critical oceanographic information near Totten.”

For residents of the United States — and indeed, the entire Northern Hemisphere — the impact of major ice loss from Antarctica could be dire. If Antarctica loses volumes of ice that would translate into major contributions to sea level rise, that rise would not be distributed evenly around the globe. The reason is the force of gravity. Antarctica is so massive that it pulls the ocean toward it, but if it loses ice, that gravitational pull will relax, and the ocean will slosh back toward the Northern Hemisphere — which will experience additional sea level rise.

For the United States, the amount of sea level rise could be 25 percent or more than the global average.

Much as with the ocean-abutting glaciers of West Antarctica, just because a retreat has been observed — and because the entirety of the region implies a sea level rise of 11 or more feet were all ice to end up in the ocean — does not mean that we’ll see anything near that much sea level rise in our lifetimes. These processes generally are expected to play out over hundreds of years or more. They would reshape the face of the Earth – but we may never see it.

The problem, then, is more the world we’re leaving to our children and grandchildren — because once such a gigantic geophysical process begins, it’s hard to see how it comes to a halt. “With warming oceans, it’s difficult to see how a process that starts now would be reversed, or reversible, in a warming world,” Siegert says.

Update: This article was updated to correct the size of the Totten Glacier. According to Greenbaum (but contrary to this press release), its floating portion (or ice shelf) is 90 miles by 22 miles in size.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Harvey » Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:24 pm

Guardian campaign to leave coal, oil and gas in the ground.

The first national newspaper to do so as far as I know.

Sign the petition here!
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:37 pm

This is some serious fucking shit:

Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences

By Chris Mooney March 23

Welcome to this week’s installment of “Don’t Mess with Geophysics.”

Last week, we learned about the possible destabilization of the Totten Glacier of East Antarctica, which could unleash over 11 feet of sea level rise in coming centuries.

And now this week brings news of another potential mega-scale perturbation. According to a new study just out in Nature Climate Change by Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a group of co-authors, we’re now seeing a slowdown of the great ocean circulation that, among other planetary roles, helps to partly drive the Gulf Stream off the U.S. east coast. The consequences could be dire – including significant extra sea level rise for coastal cities like New York and Boston.

A vast, powerful, and warm current, the Gulf Stream transports more water than “all the world’s rivers combined,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But it’s just one part of a larger regional ocean conveyor system – scientists technically call it the “Atlantic meridional overturning circulation” — which, in turn, is just one part of the larger global “thermohaline” circulation (“thermohaline” conjoins terms meaning “temperature” and “salty”).

For the whole system, a key driver occurs in the North Atlantic ocean. Here, the warm Gulf Stream flows northward into cooler waters and splits into what is called the North Atlantic Current. This stream flows still further toward northern latitudes — until it reaches points where colder, salty water sinks due to its greater density, and then travels back southward at depth.

This “overturning circulation” plays a major role in the climate because it brings warm water northward, thereby helping to warm Europe’s climate, and also sends cold water back towards the tropics. Here’s a helpful visualization, from Rahmstorf and the Potsdam Institute, of how it works:

Image
Graph of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Red colors are surface currents, blue colors are below the surface. “NADW” stands for North Atlantic Deep Water.

And here’s a wonderful video from NASA that visualizes the thermohaline circulation for the entire globe. Rahmstorf also has a blog post up at RealClimate.org explaining his research.

The system above has a key vulnerability. What keeps everything churning in the North Atlantic is the fact that cold salt water is more dense than warm water — so it sinks. However, if too much ice melts in the region — from, say Greenland — a freshening of the cold salt water could occur. If the water is less salty it will also be less dense, reducing its tendency to sink below the surface.

This could slow or even eventually shut down the circulation. In the scientifically panned 2004 blockbuster film “The Day After Tomorrow,” it is precisely such a shutdown that triggers a New Ice Age, and utter global disaster and chaos.

That’s not going to happen, say scientists. Not remotely.

Nonetheless, the new research finds that global warming does indeed seem to be slowing down the circulation. And while hardly catastrophic, that can’t be good news. Among the very real effects, notes the Potsdam Institute’s Rahmstorf, could be a possible increase in U.S. sea level if the whole circulation were to break down — which would be seriously bad news for cities like New York and Boston.

The study uses a reconstruction of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic to find that starting in around 1970 or 1975, the overturning circulation started to weaken — an event likely triggered by an unusual amount of sea ice traveling out of the Arctic ocean, melting, and causing freshening. The circulation then started to recover in the 1990s, but “it seems this was only a temporary recovery, and now it’s actually further weakened,” says Rahmstorf.

The hypothesized reason for further declines presented by the paper is that the massive Greenland ice sheet may now be losing enough freshwater due to melting to weaken the circulation. And indeed, it appears that a particular ocean region of the North Atlantic south of Greenland and between Canada and Britain is becoming colder — an indicator of less northward heat transport.

Rahmstorf points to a recent release by the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, finding that the winter of December 2014 through February 2015 was the warmest on record for the globe as a whole. However, there were several anomalies — not just a cold winter for the eastern U.S., but also record cold temperatures in the middle of the North Atlantic:

Image
According to the National Climatic Data Center, the world just saw its warmest winter ever…except for in one spot in the north Atlantic ocean (the deepest blue color above), which set a record for cold. Which is not good. (NCDC)

“These new NOAA data got me quite worried because they indicate that this partial recovery that we describe in the paper was only temporary, and the circulation is on the way down again,” says Rahmstorf.

So far, the study finds, we’re looking at a circulation that’s about 15 to 20 percent weaker. That may not sound like much, but the paper suggests a weakening this strong has not happened at any time since the year 900. Moreover, this is already more weakening than scientifically expected — and could be the beginning of a further slowdown that could have great consequences.

The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in 2013, said it was “very likely” that the Atlantic overturning circulation would weaken over the course of this century, but gave a gigantic range of from 1 to 54 percent, with best estimates at 11 and 34 percent. We’re already in that window, suggests the new study, and it’s only 2015. So what would happen if the circulation weakens even more substantially or even shuts down?

Why the U.S. suffers from a Gulf Stream system slowdown

One thing that will not happen from a shutdown of the circulation is a sudden, dramatic freezing of Europe. It will certainly cool, relative to a world in which the circulation remains robust — but that will be offset by rising average temperatures due to global warming, says Rahmstorf. The “Day After Tomorrow” scenario will not come to pass.

However, there are many other effects, ranging from dramatic impacts on fisheries to, perhaps most troubling of all, the potential for extra sea level rise in the North Atlantic region.

That may sound surprising, but here’s how it works. We’re starting out from a situation in which sea level is “anomalously low” off the U.S. east coast due to the motion of the Gulf Stream. This is for at least two reasons. First, explains Rahmstorf’s co-author Michael Mann of Penn State University, there’s the matter of temperature contrast: Waters to the right or east of the Gulf Stream, in the direction of Europe, are warmer than those on its left or west. Warm water expands and takes up more area than denser cold water, so sea level is also higher to the right side of the current, and lower off our coast.

“So if you weaken the ‘Gulf Stream’ and weaken that temperature contrast…sea level off the U.S. east coast will actually rise!” explains Mann by e-mail.

But there’s another factor, too, involving what is called the “geostrophic balance of forces” in the ocean. This gets wonky, but the bottom line result is that “sea surface slope perpendicular to any current flow, like the Gulf Stream, has a higher sea level on its right hand side, and the lower sea level on the left hand slide,” says Rahmstorf. (This would only be true in the northern hemisphere; in the southern it would be the opposite.)

We’re on the left hand side of the Gulf Stream. So weaken the flow, and you also raise the sea level. (For further explanation, see here, here, and here.)

Indeed, researchers recently found a sudden, 4-inch sea level rise of the U.S. East Coast in 2009 and 2010, which they attributed to a slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation. Rahmstorf says that “for a big breakdown of the circulation, [sea level rise] could amount to one meter, in addition to the global sea level rise that we’re expecting from global warming.”

Shutting down the circulation would also almost certainly have effects on global weather — changing around major planetary heat transport processes tends to do that — though scientists don’t know yet what those would look like.

So in sum: It appears that we’ve just seen yet another surprise from the climate system — and yet another process, like the melting of Antarctica, that seems to be happening faster than previously expected. And indeed, much like with that melting, the upshot if the trend continues is an especially bad sea level rise for the United States — the country more responsible than any other on Earth for the global warming that we’re currently experiencing.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:48 am

The Anthropocene Myth
Blaming all of humanity for climate change lets capitalism off the hook.
by Andreas Malm

Image

Last year was the hottest year ever recorded. And yet, the latest figures show that in 2013 the source that provided the most new energy to the world economy wasn’t solar, wind power, or even natural gas or oil, but coal.

The growth in global emissions — from 1 percent a year in the 1990s to 3 percent so far this millennium — is striking. It’s an increase that’s paralleled our growing knowledge of the terrible consequences of fossil fuel usage.

Who’s driving us toward disaster? A radical answer would be the reliance of capitalists on the extraction and use of fossil energy. Some, however, would rather identify other culprits.

The earth has now, we are told, entered “the Anthropocene”: the epoch of humanity. Enormously popular — and accepted even by many Marxist scholars — the Anthropocene concept suggests that humankind is the new geological force transforming the planet beyond recognition, chiefly by burning prodigious amounts of coal, oil, and natural gas.

According to these scholars, such degradation is the result of humans acting out their innate predispositions, the inescapable fate for a planet subjected to humanity’s “business-as-usual.” Indeed, the proponents cannot argue otherwise, for if the dynamics were of a more contingent character, the narrative of an entire species ascending to biospheric supremacy would be difficult to defend.

Their story centers on a classic element: fire. The human species alone can manipulate fire, and therefore it is the one that destroys the climate; when our ancestors learned how to set things ablaze, they lit the fuse of business-as-usual. Here, write prominent climate scientists Michael Raupach and Josep Canadell, was “the essential evolutionary trigger for the Anthropocene,” taking humanity straight to “the discovery that energy could be derived not only from detrital biotic carbon but also from detrital fossil carbon, at first from coal.”

The “primary reason” for current combustion of fossil fuels is that “long before the industrial era, a particular primate species learned how to tap the energy reserves stored in detrital carbon.” My learning to walk at the age of one is the reason for me dancing salsa today; when humanity ignited its first dead tree, it could only lead, one million years later, to burning a barrel of oil.

Or, in the words of Will Steffen, Paul J. Crutzen, and John R. McNeill: “The mastery of fire by our ancestors provided humankind with a powerful monopolistic tool unavailable to other species, that put us firmly on the long path towards the Anthropocene.” In this narrative, the fossil economy is the creation precisely of humankind, or “the fire-ape, Homo pyrophilus,” as in Mark Lynas’s popularization of Anthropocene thinking, aptly titled The God Species.

Now, the ability to manipulate fire was surely a necessary condition for the commencement of large-scale fossil fuel combustion in Britain in the early nineteenth century. Was it also the cause of it?

The important thing to note here is the logical structure of the Anthropocene narrative: some universal trait of the species must be driving the geological epoch that is its own, or else it would be a matter of some subset of the species. But the story of human nature can come in many forms, both in the Anthropocene genre and in other parts of climate change discourse.

In an essay in the anthology Engaging with Climate Change, psychoanalyst John Keene offers an original explanation for why humans pollute the planet and refuse to stop. In infancy, the human being discharges waste matter without limits and learns that the caring mother will take away the poo and the wee and clean up the crotch.

As a result, human beings are accustomed to the practice of spoiling their surroundings: “I believe that these repeated encounters contribute to the complementary belief that the planet is an unlimited ‘toilet-mother’, capable of absorbing our toxic products to infinity.”

But where is the evidence for any sort of causal connection between fossil fuel combustion and infant defecation? What about all those generations of people who, up to the nineteenth century, mastered both arts but never voided the carbon deposits of the earth and dumped them into the atmosphere: were they shitters and burners just waiting to realize their full potentials?

It’s easy to poke fun at certain forms of psychoanalysis, but attempts to attribute business-as-usual to the properties of the human species are doomed to vacuity. That which exists always and everywhere cannot explain why a society diverges from all others and develop something new – such as the fossil economy that only emerged some two centuries ago but now has become so entrenched that we recognize it as the only ways human can produce.

As it happens, however, mainstream climate discourse is positively drenched in references to humanity as such, human nature, the human enterprise, humankind as one big villain driving the train. In The God Species, we read: “God’s power is now increasingly being exercised by us. We are the creators of life, but we are also its destroyers.” This is one of the most common tropes in the discourse: we, all of us, you and I, have created this mess together and make it worse each day.

Enter Naomi Klein, who in This Changes Everything expertly lays bare the myriad ways in which capital accumulation, in general, and its neoliberal variant, in particular, pour fuel on the fire now consuming the earth system. Giving short shrift to all the talk of a universal human evildoer, she writes, “We are stuck because the actions that would give us the best chance of averting catastrophe — and would benefit the vast majority — are extremely threatening to an elite minority that has a stranglehold over our economy, our political process, and most of our major media outlets.”

So how do the critics respond? “Klein describes the climate crisis as a confrontation between capitalism and the planet,” philosopher John Gray counters in the Guardian. “It would be be more accurate to describe the crisis as a clash between the expanding demands of humankind and a finite world.”

Gray isn’t alone. This schism is emerging as the great ideological divide in the climate debate, and proponents of the mainstream consensus are fighting back.

In the London Review of Books, Paul Kingsnorth, a British writer who has long argued that the environmental movement should disband and accept total collapse as our destiny, retorts: “Climate change isn’t something that a small group of baddies has foisted on us”; “in the end, we are all implicated.” This, Kingsnorth argues, “is a less palatable message than one which sees a brutal 1 per cent screwing the planet and a noble 99 per cent opposing them, but it is closer to reality.”

Is it closer to reality? Six simple facts demonstrate the opposite.

First, the steam engine is widely, and correctly, seen as the original locomotive of business-as-usual, by which the combustion of coal was first linked to the ever-expanding spiral of capitalist commodity production.

While it is admittedly banal to point out, steam engines were not adopted by some natural-born deputies of the human species. The choice of a prime mover in commodity production could not possibly have been the prerogative of that species, since it presupposed, for a start, the institution of wage labor. It was the owners of the means of production who installed the novel prime mover. A tiny minority even in Britain — all-male, all-white — this class of people comprised an infinitesimal fraction of humanity in the early nineteenth century.

Second, when British imperialists penetrated into northern India around the same time, they stumbled on coal seams that were, to their great amazement, already known to the natives — indeed, the Indians had the basic knowledge of how to dig, burn, and generate heat from coal. And yet they cared nothing for the fuel.

The British, on the other hand, desperately wanted the coal out of the ground — to propel the steamboats by which they transported the treasure and raw materials extracted from the Indian peasants towards the metropolis, and their own surplus of cotton goods towards the inland markets. The problem was, no workers volunteered to step into the mines. Hence the British had to organize a system of indentured labor, forcing farmers into the pits so as to acquire the fuel for the exploitation of India.

Third, most of the twenty-first century emissions explosion originates from the People’s Republic of China. The driver of that explosion is apparent: it is not the growth of the Chinese population, nor its household consumption, nor its public expenditures, but the tremendous expansion of manufacturing industry, implanted in China by foreign capital to extract surplus value out of local labor, perceived around the turn of the millennium as extraordinarily cheap and disciplined.

That shift was part of a global assault on wages and working conditions — workers all over the world being weighed down by the threat of capital’s relocation to their Chinese substitutes, who could only be exploited by means of fossil energy as a necessary material substratum. The ensuing emissions explosion is the atmospheric legacy of class warfare.

Fourth, there is probably no other industry that encounters so much popular opposition wherever it wants to set up shop as the oil and gas industry. As Klein chronicles so well, local communities are in revolt against fracking and pipelines and exploration from Alaska to the Niger Delta, from Greece to Ecuador. But against them stands an interest recently expressed with exemplary clarity by Rex Tillerson, president and CEO of ExxonMobil: “My philosophy is to make money. If I can drill and make money, then that’s what I want to do.” This is the spirit of fossil capital incarnate.

Fifth, advanced capitalist states continue relentlessly to enlarge and deepen their fossil infrastructures — building new highways, new airports, new coal-fired power-plants — always attuned to the interests of capital, hardly ever consulting their people on these matters. Only the truly blind intellectual, of the Paul Kingsnorth-type, can believe that “we are all implicated” in such policies.

How many Americans are involved in the decisions to give coal a larger share in the electric power sector, so that the carbon intensity of the US economy rose in 2013? How many Swedes should be blamed for the ramming through of a new highway around Stockholm — the greatest infrastructure project in modern Swedish history — or their government’s assistance to coal power plants in South Africa?

The most extreme illusions about the perfect democracy of the market are required to maintain the notion of “us all” driving the train.

Sixth, and perhaps most obvious: few resources are so unequally consumed as energy. The 19 million inhabitants of New York State alone consume more energy than the 900 million inhabitants of sub-Saharan Africa. The difference in energy consumption between a subsistence pastoralist in the Sahel and an average Canadian may easily be larger than 1,000-fold — and that is an average Canadian, not the owner of five houses, three SUVs, and a private airplane.

A single average US citizen emits more than 500 citizens of Ethiopia, Chad, Afghanistan, Mali, or Burundi; how much an average US millionaire emits — and how much more than an average US or Cambodian worker — remains to be counted. But a person’s imprint on the atmosphere varies tremendously depending on where she is born. Humanity, as a result, is far too slender an abstraction to carry the burden of culpability.

Ours is the geological epoch not of humanity, but of capital. Of course, a fossil economy does not necessarily have to be capitalist: the Soviet Union and its satellite states had their own growth mechanisms connected to coal, oil, and gas. They were no less dirty, sooty, or emissions-intensive — perhaps rather more — than their Cold War adversaries. So why focus on capital? What reason is there to delve into the destructiveness of capital, when the Communist states performed at least as abysmally?

In medicine, a similar question would perhaps be, why concentrate research efforts on cancer rather than smallpox? Both can be fatal! But only one still exists. History has closed the parenthesis around the Soviet system, and so we are back at the beginning, where the fossil economy is coextensive with the capitalist mode of production — only now on a global scale.

The Stalinist version deserves its own investigations, and on its own terms (the mechanisms of growth being of their own kind). But we do not live in the Vorkuta coal-mining gulag of the 1930s. Our ecological reality, encompassing us all, is the world founded by steam-powered capital, and there are alternative courses that an environmentally responsible socialism could take. Hence capital, not humanity as such.

Naomi Klein’s success and recent street mobilizations notwithstanding, this remains a fringe view. Climate science, politics, and discourse are constantly couched in the Anthropocene narrative: species-thinking, humanity-bashing, undifferentiated collective self-flagellation, appeal to the general population of consumers to mend their ways and other ideological pirouettes that only serve to conceal the driver.

To portray certain social relations as the natural properties of the species is nothing new. Dehistoricizing, universalizing, eternalizing, and naturalizing a mode of production specific to a certain time and place — these are the classic strategies of ideological legitimation.

They block off any prospect for change. If business-as-usual is the outcome of human nature, how can we even imagine something different? It is perfectly logical that advocates of the Anthropocene and associated ways of thinking either champion false solutions that steer clear of challenging fossil capital — such as geoengineering in the case of Mark Lynas and Paul Crutzen, the inventor of the Anthropocene concept — or preach defeat and despair, as in the case of Kingsnorth.

According to the latter, “it is now clear that stopping climate change is impossible” — and, by the way, building a wind farm is just as bad as opening another coal mine, for both desecrate the landscape.

Without antagonism, there can never be any change in human societies. Species-thinking on climate change only induces paralysis. If everyone is to blame, then no one is.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:00 pm

As soon as I read the word "Anthropocene" I became irate that the nuclear age was a deciding factor for choosing the term. I believe if such a term to be applied more correctly, I would go back farther, to the invention of the steam engine. So I was somewhat delighted to see the author's using it as some point of reference in time.

But honestly, we would have to go back to the invention of cement to be more accurate for defining the beginning of the Anthropocene epoch, perhaps the shortest period humans will exist in. The manufacture of cement is perhaps the 'dirtiest' of all human activities. It always was the most polluting before the steam engine and still is.

Chemistry - that could also be a marker.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Nordic » Tue Apr 07, 2015 1:35 am

Posting this mainly for the pic at the top. Snowfall this year was disastrously low. The snowpack is almost nonexistent.

Frightening as to what this means. The entire sierras could go up in flames this summer and fall.

http://www.takepart.com/article/2015/04 ... california
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Tue Apr 07, 2015 2:39 pm

I've spent a lot of time over the past week contemplating what exactly is California's future. I just literally cannot fathom what's going to happen. Is there a precedent?
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Postby Perelandra » Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:57 pm

It's not just California. The Guv here has declared some areas already in drought. Several years ago, someone commented on some science modeling that suggested the PNW would become warmer and wetter, bad news. We depend on snowpack all over the West Coast. I fully expect major forest fires and skirmishes over rights this year. I used to think I needn't consider rainwater collection, but that was wrong.

Here's a perhaps helpful site.
http://www.cadrought.com/


Not too bad recent news from the excellent Cliff Mass, maps and links there:
Cliff Mass Weather Blog

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics
Sunday, April 5, 2015
Governor Jerry Brown Gets Nature's Cooperation
The front pages of the Seattle Times and the NY Times today have dealt at depth with the California drought. California Governor Jerry Brown has given a number of press conferences on the subject.

You HAD to know that the atmosphere would take notice of all this drought talk and the rain dancing of local and national politicians. Sort of the modern version of a Native American rain dance, a venerable tradition in our country.

There is a particular emphasis on rain dancing in the Southwest U.S., The Pueblo's are well known for their intricate dancers...and unlike some Native American rituals, both men and women were usually involved. Rain dancing is serious business that affects the entire community.

The latest model runs show a distinct change in atmospheric circulation this week, and appears fairly similar to typical El Nino patterns in which the SW U.S. get wets. The big change has been replacement of the West Coast high pressure ridge by a deep trough that is pushing down into California (see map at 500 hPa, around 18K feet):

Here is the precipitation forecast for the next 72 h. Northern California gets hit by up to 5 inches of liquid water.

But what is particularly impressive about this event is the forecast snow...here are the 72h totals: 1-2 feet at some of the higher elevations of the Sierra, southern Cascades, and Siskiyou Mountains.

Precipitation this time of the year is particularly prized...much more valuable than in December since April rain not only fills reservoirs, but moistens the soils as California enters the dry season.

The National Weather Service cumulative rainfall over the next 16 days shows a wet California:

And the NOAA Climate Prediction Center predicts above normal 6-10 days rainfall over California.
Don't get me wrong: California is in a serious drought. But although the snowpack is very poor, the reservoir levels are much better than last year and this event will help slow down the spring drying. One also has to note that Californian's are often wasteful with water, with green lawns and golf courses where native plants would be better choices. Many inappropriate, water-demanding crops are grown in the state.

You want to see something ironic? Here is the average per capita RESIDENTIAL water usage for some cities around the U.S. Sacramento, where Jerry Brown lives, is the highest, followed by tony Palo Alto, home of many environmentally minded folks. The lowest water usage? Seattle! So the folks who have the most water use the least. We are in a position to provide some tough love to our California brethren.

Here's a comment from the above post. No idea how accurate it is, but if so, damn. Bottled water is a scourge.
No one has a monopoly on irony like California does. The Swiss firm Nestlé drew 50 million gallons from Sacramento sources last year, just shy of how much water flows from home faucets in the United States, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In other words, Nestlé may be bottling more than locals drink from the tap.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Nordic » Tue Apr 07, 2015 9:58 pm

Nestle is one of those truly evil companies, like Monsanto and Halliburton.
"He who wounds the ecosphere literally wounds God" -- Philip K. Dick
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:53 pm

I believe we have now outdone Nero in fiddling as shit burns down around us. This headline should be carved as the epitaph for the human race.

The Arctic has lost so much ice that now people want to race yachts through it

By Chris Mooney April 8 at 10:58 AM

Image
Scattered ice floes in Larsen Sound, in the Northwest Passage, in October of 2006. Douglas Struck, The Washington Post

This year, we’ve seen yet another Arctic milestone — sea ice covering the top of the world reached the lowest maximum extent yet observed in winter, when ice is at its peak. That means that in the last four years, Arctic sea ice has seen a new low both for its seasonal winter peak (in 2015) and for its summer minimum (in 2012).

We often hear about how damaging this will be to Arctic ecosystems and cultures — but many people see new opportunities in a less icy Arctic. It’s not just shipping and industry, it’s also competitors and adventurers. One case in point: Sailing the Arctic Race, an “extreme yacht race” that is being proposed for the summer-fall of 2017, when crews would race 7,700 miles through the fabled Northwest Passage on a trip from New York to Victoria, British Columbia via the top of the world.

“The more ice that’s being melted, the more free water is there for us to be sailing,” says Robert Molnar, a lifelong sailor, entrepreneur, and the founder and CEO of the race. “Normally we should not be able to do that, but we can.”

The race lists, among its partners, Harken, a major U.S. based maker of sailboat gear. But it’s also drawn skepticism in sailing circles – Mark Pillsbury, the editor of the sailing magazine Cruising World, recently called the idea “ambitious and improbable.”

For now, then, Sailing the Arctic Race would seem to have a considerable burden of proof resting on its shoulders. Yet even if not this particular race in the particular year of 2017, the core premise — that the Arctic is changing rapidly, and that one principal effect of this change is to make it more easily navigable by boat — is tough to dispute.

To show as much, consider this visualization (click to enlarge) from the Post’s Kennedy Elliott:

Image

In the image above, blue and white combined shows Arctic ice conditions in September 1979, and white alone shows conditions in September 2014. Clearly, there is considerably less ice at the time of year when the race is being planned.

And now consider a map of the planned route, provided by Sailing the Arctic Race:

Image

The critical part of the proposed journey, the famous “Northwest Passage,” is the same route successfully sailed by the explorer Roald Amundsen in 1903-1906, says Mark Serreze, head of the Boulder, Colo.-based National Snow and Ice Data Center. Before Amundsen, some explorers died along this route, which is characterized both by stunning beauty — Molnar speaks of how the sea and the sky become almost the same color in the Arctic — but also unpredictable ice conditions.

So if yachts arrive here in 2017, will they really be able to get through?

“Although end-of-summer ice conditions in the Amundsen route of the Northwest Passage (the route they would take) have become milder over the past decade, ice conditions have been, and will remain, highly variable,” says Serreze by e-mail. “At the end of summer 2017 the route might be more-or-less completely ice free. It may be choked with ice. A great deal will depend on the summer weather patterns.”

Still, there’s little doubt that getting through the Northwest Passage in summer is getting easier and easier. Data from Environment Canada suggest that since 2000, the minimum level of ice cover in the passage (usually seen in August, September, or October) has been below 5 percent most years.

“From the 1980s on, voyages through the Passage have become an annual event,” adds the Department of Environment and Natural Resources of Canada’s Northwest Territories. “The number of transits increased from 4 per year in the 1980s to 20-30 per year in 2009-2013.” Thirty-two percent of the ships making transits, continues the agency, were “small vessels – adventurers,” a class that’s probably the closest to what ocean yacht racers would be.

According to a statement from the Canadian Coast Guard, “yachts and pleasure craft” transiting the waters in the Canadian Arctic do not have to tell authorities they’re there, but are “strongly” encouraged to do so nonetheless. “Vessels transiting through the Northwest Passage should be prepared for rapid changes in weather and ice conditions,” the statement noted. “Mariners may encounter extreme variability from year to year, and are responsible for navigational decisions and safety of their ships.”

So can this race really happen?

When I asked for a reference from the sailing world, Sailing the Arctic Race sent me to Guillaume Henry, who served in 2012-2013 as CEO of the Vendée Globe, a global ocean race that has been called the “pinnacle of ALL ocean racing” due to its requirement that a single sailor, alone, circle the globe. In a statement, Henry commented that “the loss of sea ice allows a short time window to cross this legendary Arctic area while it was absolutely impossible a few years ago.”

When I followed up and asked about if the race will really happen, Henry replied, “Many items need to be checked of course, mainly the real ability to cross the Northwest Passage by sailing. That’s the main job to do during the next two years.”

Katy Campbell, a spokesman for STAR, says that if conditions aren’t favorable, the race can shift its schedule — or the course of the race – for safety reasons. “Each year since 2007, several dozen private yachts sail the same route through the Arctic that we are taking,” she said by email.

The bottom line, then, seems to be that even if not this particular race in this particular year, people will surely be navigating more boats through the Arctic, for both business and for pleasure. And the idea of adding a little competition to that is probably to be expected. Adventuring and exploring are, after all, one of the things that allure us — it may even be genetic. If the world opens up a new challenge, some people will always stand up and say, “I accept.”

“Going to the Arctic is the first time ever, and that’s the great fascination to the sponsors and the people involved,” says Molnar. “There’s only once in your lifetime you can say, ‘I was there, I was part of the first.’”
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:15 am

This is from a few days ago, but it's regarding Nestle on Zero Hedge. Was this posted?

Californians Outraged As Oil Producers & Frackers Excluded From Emergency Water Restrictions

California's oil and gas industry is estimated (with official data due to be released in coming days) to use more than 2 million gallons of fresh water per day; so it is hardly surprising that, as Reuters reports, Californians are outraged after discovering that these firms are excluded from Governor Jerry Brown's mandatory water restrictions, "forcing ordinary Californians to shoulder the burden of the drought."

From Reuters,
California should require oil producers to cut their water usage as part of the administration’s efforts to conserve water in the drought-ravaged state, environmentalists said on Wednesday.

Governor Jerry Brown ordered the first statewide mandatory water restrictions on Wednesday, directing cities and communities to cut their consumption by 25 percent. But the order does not require oil producers to cut their usage nor does it place a temporary halt on the water intensive practice of hydraulic fracturing.

California’s oil and gas industry uses more than 2 million gallons of fresh water a day to produce oil through well stimulation practices including fracking, acidizing and steam injection, according to estimates by environmentalists. The state is expected to release official numbers on the industry’s water consumption in the coming days.

“Governor Brown is forcing ordinary Californians to shoulder the burden of the drought by cutting their personal water use while giving the oil industry a continuing license to break the law and poison our water,” said Zack Malitz of environmental group Credo.

“Fracking and toxic injection wells may not be the largest uses of water in California, but they are undoubtedly some of the stupidest,” he said.

The industry has received scrutiny for how it disposes of undrinkable water produced during oil drilling. Last month the state ordered the operators of 12 wells to halt injections of the water out of fear that it could contaminate fresh drinking water supplies.

...

In an interview with the PBS Newshour on Wednesday, Brown indicated that curbing oil industry water use would not help a state so dependent on petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel.

“If we don’t take it out of our ground, we’ll take it out of someone else’s,” Brown said.

Suck it up, or well don't as the case may be, serfs.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:32 pm

Oceans Facing Carbon Rates Which Spurred Mass Die-Off 250 Million Years Ago

University of Edinburgh researchers warn that the carbon emissions that drove a mass extinction event some 252 million years ago were released at a rate similar to today
by
Sarah Lazare, staff writer

Image

In case you weren't already worried about the current and rapid acidification of the world's oceans, a new report by leading scientists finds that this very phenomenon is to blame for the worst mass extinction event the planet earth has ever seen—approximately 252 million years ago.

The findings, published this week in the journal Science by University of Edinburgh researchers, raise serious concerns about the implications of present-day acidification, driven by human-made climate change.

"Scientists have long suspected that an ocean acidification event occurred during the greatest mass extinction of all time, but direct evidence has been lacking until now," said lead author Dr. Matthew Clarkson in a statement. "This is a worrying finding, considering that we can already see an increase in ocean acidity today that is the result of human carbon emissions."

The paper looks at the culprit behind the Permo-Triassic Boundary mass extinction, which wiped out more than 90 percent of marine species and two-thirds of land animals, making it even more severe than the die-off of the dinosaurs.

The scientists evaluated rocks in the United Arab Emirates that, 250 million years ago, were on the bottom of the ocean. Researchers then employed a climate model to determine what drove the extinction.

A summary of the researchers' findings explains the mass die-off "happened when Earth’s oceans absorbed huge amounts of carbon dioxide from volcanic eruptions. This changed the chemical composition of the oceans—making them more acidic—with catastrophic consequences for life on Earth."

The kicker? The carbon that drove this process during the Permian-Triassic Boundary extinction was "released at a rate similar to modern emissions," the report summary concludes. "This fast rate of release was a critical factor driving ocean acidification."

Over the past 200 years alone, international oceans have become dramatically more acidic, putting coral reefs and sea life at risk, and even, in some cases, causing snails' shells to dissolve.

As Dr. Rachel Wood of the University of Edinburgh told the Independent, "The important take-home message of this [report] is that the rate of increase of CO2 during the Permian mass extinction is about the same rate as the one to which we are exposing the ocean to today."
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby chump » Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:48 pm

https://soundcloud.com/guns-and-butter- ... vidson-312

Ben Davidson discusses both "sides" of the climate debate and which issues neither seem to address. He covers recent historical climatic events and the solar influences upon them along with other space weather factors.

Aired: November 5, 2014
www.suspicious0bservers.org/


The entire solar system is cooling according to this guy: Therefore, global cooling is much more likely. But we're in for volatile bad weather for next few decades as the sun transitions from a grand maximum to a grand minimum solar phase. Furthermore, the Earth's magnetic poles are overdue to suddenly reverse. These events are predictable. Somebody's gonna make big money!
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Tue Apr 14, 2015 6:22 pm

I'm unable to copy and paste this, but it's well worth reading:

Global Warming Is Already Clobbering The Amazon
http://www.wired.com/2015/04/global-war ... ng-amazon/
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:26 pm

Highly recommend stillrobertpaulson's Amazon article above.
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