How Bad Is Global Warming?

[coffin_dodger]

When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job
Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can't really talk about it.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a36228/ballad-of-the-sad-climatologists-0815/

[Luther Blissett]

That's quite important, coffin_dodger, but I guess you were right to not include the full text. It won't help future us research anything. It's more like confirmation bias.

A few choice quotes though.

Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can't really talk about it.
…
But gloom is the one subject he doesn't want to discuss. "Crawling under a rock isn't an option," he responds, "so becoming overcome with PTSD-like symptoms is useless." He quotes a Norse proverb:

"The unwise man is awake all night, worries over and again. When morning rises he is restless still."

Most people don't have a proverb like that readily at hand.
…
At the darkest end of the spectrum are groups like Deep Green Resistance, which openly advocates sabotage to "industrial infrastructure," and the thousands who visit the Web site and attend the speeches of Guy McPherson, a biology professor at the University of Arizona who concluded that renewables would do no good, left his job, and moved to an off-grid homestead to prepare for abrupt climate change. "Civilization is a heat engine," he says. "There's no escaping the trap we've landed ourselves into."

The most influential is Paul Kingsnorth, a longtime climate activist and novelist who abandoned hope for political change in 2009. Retreating to the woods of western Ireland, he helped launch a group called Dark Mountain with a stirring, gloomy manifesto calling for "a network of writers, artists, and thinkers who have stopped believing the stories our civilization tells itself." Among those stories: progress, growth, and the superiority of man. The idea quickly spread, and there are now fifty Dark Mountain chapters around the world. Fans have written plays and songs and a Ph.D. thesis about them.
…
"Bad things are going to happen. What can you do as a person? You write stories. I do science. You don't run around saying, 'We're fucked! We're fucked! We're fucked!' It doesn't—it doesn't incentivize anybody to do anything."
…
"We should do our best to divorce ourselves from all of our typically human inclinations—emotion, empathy, concern." But even when he decided that detachment was a mistake in this case and began becoming publicly active, he was usually able to put the implication of all the hockey-stick trend lines out of his mind. "Part of being a scientist is you don't want to believe there is a problem you can't solve."

Might that be just another form of denial?

The question seems to affect him. He takes a deep breath and answers in the carefully measured words of a scientist. "It's hard to say," he says. "It's a denial of futility if there is futility. But I don't know that there is futility, so it would only be denial per se if there were unassailable evidence."
…
But he can't keep his anger in check for long and keeps obsessively returning to two topics:

"We need the deniers to get out of the way. They are risking everyone's future.... The Koch Brothers are criminals.... They should be charged with criminal activity because they're putting the profits of their business ahead of the livelihoods of millions of people, and even life on earth."

Like Parmesan, Box was hugely relieved to be out of the toxic atmosphere of the U. S. "I remember thinking, What a relief, I don't have to bother with this bullshit anymore." In Denmark, his research is supported through the efforts of conservative politicians. "But Danish conservatives are not climate-change deniers," he says.

The other topic he is obsessed with is the human suffering to come. Long before the rising waters from Greenland's glaciers displace the desperate millions, he says more than once, we will face drought-triggered agricultural failures and water-security issues—in fact, it's already happening. Think back to the 2010 Russian heat wave. Moscow halted grain exports. At the peak of the Australian drought, food prices spiked. The Arab Spring started with food protests, the self-immolation of the vegetable vendor in Tunisia. The Syrian conflict was preceded by four years of drought. Same with Darfur. The migrants are already starting to stream north across the sea—just yesterday, eight hundred of them died when their boat capsized—and the Europeans are arguing about what to do with them. "As the Pentagon says, climate change is a conflict multiplier."
…
But let's get real, he says, fossil fuels are the dominant industry on earth, and you can't expect meaningful political change with them in control. "There's a growing consensus that there must be a shock to the system."

So the darker hopes arise—maybe a particularly furious El Niño or a "carbon bubble" where the financial markets realize that renewables have become more scalable and economical, leading to a run on fossil-fuel assets and a "generational crash" of the global economy that, through great suffering, buys us more time and forces change.
…

[stillrobertpaulsen]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thanks, I thought the whole piece really cut to the bone on how this is affecting the messengers who are being shot left and right. I'm curious about Paul Kingsnorth and Dark Mountain; I've never heard of it so I'll be checking to see if there's a chapter in my area.

And yes, this quote was choice from Mr. Box:

"The Koch Brothers are criminals.... They should be charged with criminal activity because they're putting the profits of their business ahead of the livelihoods of millions of people, and even life on earth."

[Luther Blissett]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thanks, I thought the whole piece really cut to the bone on how this is affecting the messengers who are being shot left and right. I'm curious about Paul Kingsnorth and Dark Mountain; I've never heard of it so I'll be checking to see if there's a chapter in my area.

And yes, this quote was choice from Mr. Box:

"The Koch Brothers are criminals.... They should be charged with criminal activity because they're putting the profits of their business ahead of the livelihoods of millions of people, and even life on earth."

I did the same thing with Dark Mountain. I couldn't find any chapter information so I just did the bare minimum: liked their page on Facebook. Their most recent post The Green Cathedral is great though.

[Nordic]

http://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/fi ... stry-memos

""More than half of all industrial carbon emissions have been released since 1988 and there is still no comprehensive U.S. federal policy to address the problem."


http://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/fi ... stry-memos

The Climate Deception Dossiers

Internal fossil fuel industry memos reveal decades of disinformation—a deliberate campaign to deceive the public that continues even today.
DOWNLOAD
Full report
For nearly three decades, many of the world's largest fossil fuel companies have knowingly worked to deceive the public about the realities and risks of climate change.

Their deceptive tactics are now highlighted in this set of seven "deception dossiers"—collections of internal company and trade association documents that have either been leaked to the public, come to light through lawsuits, or been disclosed through Freedom of Information (FOIA) requests.

Each collection provides an illuminating inside look at this coordinated campaign of deception, an effort underwritten by ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Shell, Peabody Energy, and other members of the fossil fuel industry.

UPDATE (July 9, 2015): As this report went to press, a newly discovered email from a former Exxon employee revealed that the company was already factoring climate change into decisions about new fossil fuel extraction as early as 1981. Learn more.

he climate deception dossiers
Containing 85 internal memos totaling more than 330 pages, the seven dossiers reveal a range of deceptive tactics deployed by the fossil fuel industry. These include forged letters to Congress, secret funding of a supposedly independent scientist, the creation of fake grassroots organizations, multiple efforts to deliberately manufacture uncertainty about climate science, and more.

The documents clearly show that:

Fossil fuel companies have intentionally spread climate disinformation for decades.
Fossil fuel company leaders knew that their products were harmful to people and the planet but still chose to actively deceive the public and deny this harm.
The campaign of deception continues today.
Download the full report for in-depth information on each of the seven dossiers. The complete collection of documents is available in the sources and resources section below.

What fossil fuel companies knew and when they knew it
The fundamentals of global warming have been well established for generations. Fossil fuel companies have almost certainly been aware of the underlying climate science for decades.


By 1988, climate change was a well-established scientific fact and widely acknowledged in the public sphere, as exemplified by this front page story in the New York Times. Enlarge image.
As early as 1977, representatives from major fossil fuel companies attended dozens of congressional hearings in which the contribution of carbon emissions to the greenhouse effect was discussed. By 1981 at least one company (Exxon) was already considering the climate implications of a large fossil fuel extraction project.

In 1988, the issue moved beyond the scientific community and onto the national stage. James Hansen, a leading NASA climate scientist, testified before Congress that scientific data had confirmed that industrial activities were causing climate change. It was also in 1988 that the United Nations formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. Congress introduced the National Energy Policy Act in an effort to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases.

It is difficult to imagine that executives, lobbyists, and scientists at major fossil companies were by this time unaware of the robust scientific evidence of the risks associated with the continued burning of their products.


More than half of all industrial carbon emissions have been released since 1988—after major fossil fuel companies knew about the harm their products were causing. Enlarge image.
Indeed, one of the key documents highlighted in the deception dossiers is a 1995 internal memo written by a team headed by a Mobil Corporation scientist and distributed to many major fossil fuel companies. The internal report warned unequivocally that burning the companies' products was causing climate change and that the relevant science "is well established and cannot be denied."

How did fossil fuel companies respond? They embarked on a series of campaigns to deliberately deceive the public about the reality of climate change and block any actions that might curb carbon emissions.

The result? More than half of all industrial carbon emissions have been released since 1988 and there is still no comprehensive U.S. federal policy to address the problem.

Holding fossil fuel companies accountable
As the picture of fossil fuel companies' efforts to deceive the public comes into clear view, the time is ripe to hold these companies accountable for their actions and responsible for the harm they have caused.


TAKE ACTION: Join the call to stop climate deception by telling one or more of these companies that the decades of deception must stop.
So how should the American public expect fossil fuel companies to behave? At a minimum, society should expect them to:

Stop disseminating misinformation about climate change. It is unacceptable for fossil fuel companies to deny established climate science. It is also unacceptable for companies to publicly accept the science while funding climate contrarian scientists or front groups that distort or deny the science.
Support fair and cost-effective policies to reduce global warming emissions. It is time for the industry to identify and publicly support policies that will lead to the reduction of emissions at a scale needed to reduce the worst effects of global warming.
Reduce emissions from current operations and update their business models to prepare for future global limits on emissions. Companies should take immediate action to cut emissions from their current operations, update their business models to reflect the risks of unabated burning of fossil fuels, and map out the pathway they plan to take in the next 20 years to ensure we achieve a low-carbon energy future.
Pay for their share of the costs of climate damages and preparedness. Communities around the world are already facing and paying for damages from rising seas, extreme heat, more frequent droughts, and other climate-related impacts. Today and in the future, fossil fuel companies should pay a fair share of the costs.
Fully disclose the financial and physical risks of climate change to their business operations. As is required by law, fossil fuel companies are required to discuss risks—including climate change—that might materially affect their business in their annual SEC filings. Today, compliance with this requirement is not consistent.
Sources and resources


Source documents (PDFs) below:

[Lord Balto]

Meanwhile, back in the Reality Studio:

WARNING! BEWARE OF EXPLODING HEADS!

It looks like the center of climate gravity is shifting back to an impending new ice age:

A new model that predicts the solar cycles more accurately than ever before has suggested that solar activity will drop by 60 percent between 2030 and 2040, which means in just 15 years’ time, Earth could sink into what researchers are calling a mini ice age.

Such low solar activity has not been seen since the last mini ice age, called the Maunder Minimum, which plunged the northern hemisphere in particular into a series of bitterly cold winters between 1645 and 1715.

The prediction is based on what’s known as the Sun’s '11-year heartbeat'. The Sun’s activity is not the same year in year out, it fluctuates over a cycle that lasts between 10 and 12 years. Ever since this was discovered 172 years ago, scientists have struggled to predict what each cycle will look like.

But just last week at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, mathematics professor Valentina Zharkova from Northumbria University in the UK has presented a new model that can forecast what these solar cycles will look like based on the dynamo effects at play in two layers of the Sun. Zharkova says she can predict their influence with an accuracy of 97 percent.

What exactly are these so-called dynamo effects? They’re part of a geophysical theory that explains how the motion of Earth’s outer core moves conducting material, such as liquid iron, across a weak magnetic field to create an electric current. This electric current also interacts with the fluid motion below the surface of Earth to create two magnetic fields along the axis of its rotation.

When Zharkova’s model applied this theory to the Sun, it drew its predictions assuming that there are dynamo effects in two subterranean layers - one deep down in the convection zone, and another up near the surface, each fluctuating between the northern and southern hemispheres.

Zharkova explained her findings at the conference:

"We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent."

Looking at these magnetic wave patterns, the model predicted that there would be few sunspots over the next two 11-year heartbeats - called Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022, and Cycle 26, which runs from 2030 to 2040.

"In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other - peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova.

During the original Maunder Minimum, the entire River Thames froze over in England. So I guess time to get your skates ready?

This just shows the ridiculous nature of basing climate "science" on the last hundred years. Now if humanity could just get over the egotistical notion that they are the ultimate driver of climate on earth.

[Luther Blissett]

Pollution is still bad.

[brainpanhandler]

Meanwhile, back in the Reality Studio:

Indeed.

It looks like the center of climate gravity is shifting back to an impending new ice age:

Professor Zharkova made a presentation. They have not even published in a peer reviewed journal and you're already proclaiming a pendulum swing to a new ice age? Nice work Einstein.

A new model that predicts the solar cycles more accurately than ever before has suggested that solar activity will drop by 60 percent between 2030 and 2040, which means in just 15 years’ time, Earth could sink into what researchers are calling a mini ice age.

Such low solar activity has not been seen since the last mini ice age, called the Maunder Minimum, which plunged the northern hemisphere in particular into a series of bitterly cold winters between 1645 and 1715.

The prediction is based on what’s known as the Sun’s '11-year heartbeat'. The Sun’s activity is not the same year in year out, it fluctuates over a cycle that lasts between 10 and 12 years. Ever since this was discovered 172 years ago, scientists have struggled to predict what each cycle will look like.

But just last week at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, mathematics professor Valentina Zharkova from Northumbria University in the UK has presented a new model that can forecast what these solar cycles will look like based on the dynamo effects at play in two layers of the Sun. Zharkova says she can predict their influence with an accuracy of 97 percent.

What exactly are these so-called dynamo effects? They’re part of a geophysical theory that explains how the motion of Earth’s outer core moves conducting material, such as liquid iron, across a weak magnetic field to create an electric current. This electric current also interacts with the fluid motion below the surface of Earth to create two magnetic fields along the axis of its rotation.

When Zharkova’s model applied this theory to the Sun, it drew its predictions assuming that there are dynamo effects in two subterranean layers - one deep down in the convection zone, and another up near the surface, each fluctuating between the northern and southern hemispheres.

Zharkova explained her findings at the conference:

"We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent."

Looking at these magnetic wave patterns, the model predicted that there would be few sunspots over the next two 11-year heartbeats - called Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022, and Cycle 26, which runs from 2030 to 2040.

"In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other - peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova.

During the original Maunder Minimum, the entire River Thames froze over in England. So I guess time to get your skates ready?

This just shows the ridiculous nature of basing climate "science" on the last hundred years. Now if humanity could just get over the egotistical notion that they are the ultimate driver of climate on earth.

Professor Zharkova made a presentation. When they have published in a peer reviewed journal everyone can take a closer look at then potentially this new information can be assimilated into new models which will include anthropogenic warming factors, because those factors are well documented and supported with overwhelming evidence.

I don't think 'humanity' (whoever that is) believe they are the ultimate driver of climate on earth. I don't think climate scientists think humanity is the ultimate driver of climate on earth. I don't think anyone at all thinks humanity is the "ultimate driver of climate on earth". Do climate scientists believe humanity has emitted enough greenhouse gasses to trap enough of the sun's energy to raise the temperature of the planet sufficiently to catastrophically disrupt the earth's climatological/ecological balance? Why yes, yes they do. 97% of them do.

[zangtang]

i'll take any mini-ice age i can get.

[82_28]

i'll take any mini-ice age i can get.

No shit, right. I have never lived through a winter with no winter before. ZERO winter in the PNW for an entire year. Almost zero precipitation. Since nobody has no sprinklers here, everything is a vast brown wasteland. The trees for the most part are green because they were smart and have more vast root systems.

[brainpanhandler]

i'll take any mini-ice age i can get.

No shit, right. I have never lived through a winter with no winter before. ZERO winter in the PNW for an entire year. Almost zero precipitation. Since nobody has no sprinklers here, everything is a vast brown wasteland. The trees for the most part are green because they were smart and have more vast root systems.

UW researcher finds warm water ‘blob’ in Pacific Ocean, links to unusual West Coast climate

...

Nick Bond, Washington state climatologist and research professor at the UW, found the blob, which formed in 2013, and has been linked to odd weather patterns, including an unusually warm summer and mild winter on the West Coast.

...

http://www.dailyuw.com/science/article_ ... 4d328.html

Oh wait, right. Never mind. Bond is a climatologist and research professor or in other words a climate 'scientist'. I keep forgetting they're all just money hungry, establishment pricks out to bamboozle the taxpayer.

Maybe the sun went through a mini-uptick. That's it. Cause we all know the sun is the only factor worth considering.

[Lord Balto]

Meanwhile, back in the Reality Studio:

Indeed.

It looks like the center of climate gravity is shifting back to an impending new ice age:

Professor Zharkova made a presentation. They have not even published in a peer reviewed journal and you're already proclaiming a pendulum swing to a new ice age? Nice work Einstein.

A new model that predicts the solar cycles more accurately than ever before has suggested that solar activity will drop by 60 percent between 2030 and 2040, which means in just 15 years’ time, Earth could sink into what researchers are calling a mini ice age.

Such low solar activity has not been seen since the last mini ice age, called the Maunder Minimum, which plunged the northern hemisphere in particular into a series of bitterly cold winters between 1645 and 1715.

The prediction is based on what’s known as the Sun’s '11-year heartbeat'. The Sun’s activity is not the same year in year out, it fluctuates over a cycle that lasts between 10 and 12 years. Ever since this was discovered 172 years ago, scientists have struggled to predict what each cycle will look like.

But just last week at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, mathematics professor Valentina Zharkova from Northumbria University in the UK has presented a new model that can forecast what these solar cycles will look like based on the dynamo effects at play in two layers of the Sun. Zharkova says she can predict their influence with an accuracy of 97 percent.

What exactly are these so-called dynamo effects? They’re part of a geophysical theory that explains how the motion of Earth’s outer core moves conducting material, such as liquid iron, across a weak magnetic field to create an electric current. This electric current also interacts with the fluid motion below the surface of Earth to create two magnetic fields along the axis of its rotation.

When Zharkova’s model applied this theory to the Sun, it drew its predictions assuming that there are dynamo effects in two subterranean layers - one deep down in the convection zone, and another up near the surface, each fluctuating between the northern and southern hemispheres.

Zharkova explained her findings at the conference:

"We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent."

Looking at these magnetic wave patterns, the model predicted that there would be few sunspots over the next two 11-year heartbeats - called Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022, and Cycle 26, which runs from 2030 to 2040.

"In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other - peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova.

During the original Maunder Minimum, the entire River Thames froze over in England. So I guess time to get your skates ready?

This just shows the ridiculous nature of basing climate "science" on the last hundred years. Now if humanity could just get over the egotistical notion that they are the ultimate driver of climate on earth.

Professor Zharkova made a presentation. When they have published in a peer reviewed journal everyone can take a closer look at then potentially this new information can be assimilated into new models which will include anthropogenic warming factors, because those factors are well documented and supported with overwhelming evidence.

I don't think 'humanity' (whoever that is) believe they are the ultimate driver of climate on earth. I don't think climate scientists think humanity is the ultimate driver of climate on earth. I don't think anyone at all thinks humanity is the "ultimate driver of climate on earth". Do climate scientists believe humanity has emitted enough greenhouse gasses to trap enough of the sun's energy to raise the temperature of the planet sufficiently to catastrophically disrupt the earth's climatological/ecological balance? Why yes, yes they do. 97% of them do.

Scientific truth IS NOT determined by majority vote. If you think it is, you do not understand the very nature of scientific research. Go back and read the reactions to Lyell and Darwin if you want to understand the value of majority opinion. It is worthless and meaningless. And I would remind you that as recently as 50 years ago, the new ice age paradigm was the dominant theory among climate scientists. That's why I said "shifting BACK". Scientific orthodoxy is no more constant than women's fashions. Science is as narrow minded and bigoted as any religion ever was. And this entire debate is being used to push a political agenda. Hence the introduction of the 97% meme. I challenge anyone to present hard data substantiating that percentage. I suspect it is quite BO-O-gus. You can't even give me a list of all the climate scientists in the world and a definition of what exactly that term even means. Does it include everyone with a meteorology degree or is it confined to published authors with Ph.Ds? Tell a lie long enough and loud enough and it becomes the truth. I think Goebbels said that. Charles Fort also pointed out that you can't convince the hypnotized that a chair isn't a hippopotamus no matter how hard you try.

The findings are being presented by Professor Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

Presenting a paper at a scientific meeting is tantamount to publication, and normal procedure is to publish the papers after they are given. Do you not know this, or are you just making this up as you go along?

You don't think that humanity is the ultimate driver of climate on this planet? To listen to the current crop of end-of-the-world zealots, we are about to collectively turn the earth into an inferno. As I have pointed out above, the current temperate climate is a short-term interruption of a series of ice ages that go back millions of years. Stop complaining and be thankful it's not snowing in Miami.

[Lord Balto]

Pollution is still bad.

Not if it's 30 below and the pollution is coming from a wood fire that is keeping you from freezing your ass off.

[Lord Balto]

i'll take any mini-ice age i can get.

No shit, right. I have never lived through a winter with no winter before. ZERO winter in the PNW for an entire year. Almost zero precipitation. Since nobody has no sprinklers here, everything is a vast brown wasteland. The trees for the most part are green because they were smart and have more vast root systems.

UW researcher finds warm water ‘blob’ in Pacific Ocean, links to unusual West Coast climate

...

Nick Bond, Washington state climatologist and research professor at the UW, found the blob, which formed in 2013, and has been linked to odd weather patterns, including an unusually warm summer and mild winter on the West Coast.

...

http://www.dailyuw.com/science/article_ ... 4d328.html

Oh wait, right. Never mind. Bond is a climatologist and research professor or in other words a climate 'scientist'. I keep forgetting they're all just money hungry, establishment pricks out to bamboozle the taxpayer.

Maybe the sun went through a mini-uptick. That's it. Cause we all know the sun is the only factor worth considering.

Knock over many straw men? Do you really not know how to have a rational discussion free of political posturing? This really is a religion to you folks, isn't it? And the damned "climate scientists" are the bishops of that religion. And when it becomes painfully obvious that their end-of-the-world predictions are so much hot air, they will tell you that the old guys forgot to factor in the proper fudge factor, but that NOW they have the real skinny and there's no possibility of their being wrong, THIS TIME.

[Nordic]

British Columbia seems to be on fire at the moment. Literally.

This whole stupid argument shows exactly what pisses me off about the entire environmental community being manipulated into arguing about one thing -- global warming.

Listen, if Global Warming weren't even on the radar, humans are STILL DESTROYING our very ability to eat, breath, grow good and drink water. We would still be in the midst of a massive extinction event. There would still be Monsanto poisons in our drinking water and breast milk. Fracking would still be destroying our water supply. The rain forests would still be getting mowed down at a suicidal rate.

But no, it's all about this ONE issue now which they've nicely set up so that we can argue about the very existence of it. It's brilliant, really, in a planet destroying, ecodidal, diabolical way.