U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

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U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby Nordic » Tue Apr 13, 2010 6:37 pm

I'm sure there's a "Peak Oil" thread here somewhere, but I can't find it.

Anyway, what to make of this?


http://cryptogon.com/?p=14752

U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

April 13th, 2010
Via: Guardian:

The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: “While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.”

The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with “an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments.”

The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a distant threat to a more immediate risk.

The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met concerned industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on the seriousness of the issue.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some senior officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally about this upbeat stance.
Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. BP chief executive, Tony Hayward, said recently that there was little chance of crude from the carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands being banned in America because the US military like to have local supplies rather than rely on the politically unstable Middle East.

But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview with French newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama administration, admitted that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.

Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the American military moves the debate on.

“It’s surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the near-term. Now it could be interesting to know on which study the information is based on,” he said.
“The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy) has been saying for years that Peak Oil was “decades away”. In light of the report from the US Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still confident of its previous highly optimistic conclusions?”

The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. “One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest,” it points out.



I have to say, like any good addict, that although I'd love to see western civilization weaned off of crude oil, I dread seeing this coming. (and yes, I've seen it coming since 1979 when I first learned about it). Only the super-wealthy are going to skate through this without a lot of pain. The rest of us? Get ready for a $40 can of beans and a $50 loaf of bread.

Ironic that the Pentagon, one of the largest users of oil as ranked by country, is complaining about running out.
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby DoYouEverWonder » Tue Apr 13, 2010 6:50 pm

What they're really worried about is peak demand. We've hardly even touched the stuff under Iraq yet and that all light sweet crude, that's cheap to extract.

What's happening is that lot's of people are working on lot's of alternatives and demand for oil, with the global economic slowdown is actually going down at the moment.

We'll probably never stop using oil for lot's of different things, but we aren't going to need as much of it as they would like.
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby surfaceskimmer » Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:06 pm

There was an article recently at Wired/Defense which suggested that the Air Force is looking at how it can make its A-10 WartHogs corn-fed on ethanol. Perhaps the US Navy will figure out how to pipe the used oil from Freedom Fryers out to sea; unless the fleet goes entirely nuclear, you can say goodbye to the Empire. Can someone hook me up with low-cost Rosetta Stone tutorial systems? Or figure out how to "tunnel" me through time to a livable planet in the Alpha Centauri system? Maybe they were testing the prototype up near the Arctic Circle that day when Obama got his Peace Pipe...
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby No_Baseline » Tue Apr 13, 2010 8:03 pm

What they're really worried about is peak demand. We've hardly even touched the stuff under Iraq yet and that all light sweet crude, that's cheap to extract.

What's happening is that lot's of people are working on lot's of alternatives and demand for oil, with the global economic slowdown is actually going down at the moment.

We'll probably never stop using oil for lot's of different things, but we aren't going to need as much of it as they would like.
The oil companies never did like competition and if they ever legalize industrial hemp, they'll be in even bigger trouble.


A lot of the Peak Oilers, led by Mike Ruppert, believe the current "recession" was created to deliberately slow down the oil guzzling. I don't know about that, but I do find it interesting that the crazy summer of '08, when gas topped out in the US at $4.00 a gallon was immediately followed by the current global "recession". I've read on Ruppert's site and at least a dozen other sites that this was a test run, to see how the world would respond to double/triple-priced gas.

The military/US government has known since the '70's that this peak was coming...it's interesting that this news story is out now - where is it from - the Guardian UK? I think we are being prepped - for what, I can't say, either its going to be another spike with higher priced oil, or we are being primed to accept nuclear energy, or we're gonna invade Venezuela and take their oil, hell, let's make it all of the above.
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby swindled69 » Tue Apr 13, 2010 8:31 pm

Denial is not a river in egypt, it's the state that the world is living in.
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby surfaceskimmer » Tue Apr 13, 2010 9:19 pm

.. and Cryptogon pointed to its old story on how the US Navy had quietly confirmed the potential of cold fusion. What are the chances that this whole "we're running out of oil" gambit is 'a bunch of inflated rubber tanks sitting on a soccer field across the Channel from the fortified beaches' long-range ruse? If someone fishes a body out of the Chesapeake with a briefcase stuffed with old CIA estimates, make sure to get that story posted.
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby wintler2 » Tue Apr 13, 2010 9:24 pm

DoYouEverWonder wrote:What they're really worried about is peak demand.

No, Peak Demand is the cover story for peak of oil production. Admitting peak demand should itself be pretty tricky for growthists, but it will be better than trying to integrate the fact of oil decline.

DoYouEverWonder wrote:We've hardly even touched the stuff under Iraq yet and that all light sweet crude, that's cheap to extract.

Image

60 years of extraction does not = 'hardly touched'.

And 'cheap'?
Image

DoYouEverWonder wrote:What's happening is that lot's of people are working on lot's of alternatives

And the net energy of all of them is much much small than that for oil.

DoYouEverWonder wrote: and demand for oil, with the global economic slowdown is actually going down at the moment.

Peak demand may have happened in the US (indicated by), but theres certainly no peak in global demand, hence rising US inventories & rising price.

No_Baseline wrote:A lot of the Peak Oilers, led by Mike Ruppert, believe the current "recession" was created to deliberately slow down the oil guzzling.

Got any links for anyone other than Ruppert saying that?

No_Baseline wrote:I don't know about that, but I do find it interesting that the crazy summer of '08, when gas topped out in the US at $4.00 a gallon was immediately followed by the current global "recession".

Yes, the energy prices resulted in enormous transfer of wealth from big oil importers to exporters. Millions could no longer run their portable combustion shrines AND make repayments, so many more defaulted, presto GFC.

No_Baseline wrote:I've read on Ruppert's site and at least a dozen other sites that this was a test run, to see how the world would respond to double/triple-priced gas.
The military/US government has known since the '70's that this peak was coming...it's interesting that this news story is out now - where is it from - the Guardian UK? I think we are being prepped - for what, I can't say, either its going to be another spike with higher priced oil, or we are being primed to accept nuclear energy, or we're gonna invade Venezuela and take their oil, hell, let's make it all of the above.


You are being prepped for an approaching encounter with thermodynamic reality, via declining supply of fossil fuels.

If you assume a 'They' in total control how come the US airforce is still scrabbling around for a post-crude oil fuel, decades after they knew it was going to be a problem?
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby operator kos » Tue Apr 13, 2010 9:42 pm

The air force already has fully functional biofuel jets:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/03/air-force-debuts-biofuel-guzzling-warthog

I suspect, however, that they also already have vehicles that don't use combustion engines at all, so it may be a moot point.
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby justdrew » Tue Apr 13, 2010 10:50 pm

it seems the whole 'global economic crisis' has saved at best a few million bpd, maybe we'd be at 90 without it? Either way, that's a lotta millions of barrels per day. The relatively low levels of investment and work on new production sites is damning. How can that even be explained given the high profit levels? Where are the profits being invested if not into new development? wtf

World oil demand to hit record high this year: IEA
(Reuters) - Global oil demand will hit a record high this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, revising up consumption estimates as the world economy recovers from recession.

The Paris-based adviser to industrialized economies raised its forecast for world oil demand growth this year to 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd), up 100,000 bpd.

The agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report that world oil demand would reach an average of 86.60 million bpd this year, up from 84.93 million in 2009.

The previous record high for world oil demand was 86.5 million bpd in 2007 before the onset of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown.

"There are signs of oil demand picking up in North America and the Pacific, Asia and the Middle East although consumption in Europe still looks weak," David Fyfe, head of the IEA's Oil Industry and Markets Division, told Reuters.

But the extra demand will largely be met by production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The IEA raised its forecast for non-OPEC output in 2010 by 220,000 bpd to around 52.0 million bpd due to higher output by OECD countries. Overall, non-OPEC supply is expected to rise by around 500,000 bpd this year.

As a result, the IEA estimated demand this year for OPEC crude and stocks would fall by 200,000 bpd to 29.1 million bpd.

OPEC COMPLIANCE FALLS

Oil prices were largely steady after the IEA report, with benchmark U.S. crude oil futures for May trading around $83.63 per barrel, down 71 cents, by 6:06 a.m. ET.

The IEA noted that oil prices, which hit an 18-month high above $87 last week, had risen above the range of $60 to $80 per barrel that OPEC and many industrialized countries see as ideal for producers and consumers.

It said oil prices could stifle world economic growth if they were allowed to rise too far.

"Ultimately, things might turn messy for producers if $80-$100 per barrel is merely seen as the new $60-$80, stunting economic recovery while prompting resurgent non-oil and non-OPEC supply investment," the IEA report said.

Total OPEC production declined in March, the IEA said, but this was largely due to a fall in production by Iraq, which is not bound by OPEC output targets.

It said production by the 11 OPEC countries bound by OPEC output targets rose by 30,000 bpd, taking their compliance as a group with promised output cuts to around 55 percent at the end of March, down from its previous estimate of 56 percent at the end of February.

Oil stocks in industrialized countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) rose to around 60 days of forward demand at the end of February from about 59.5 days at the end of January, the IEA said.

The IEA said refineries around the world would process nearly 1 million bpd more oil in the second quarter than in the same period last year with China and Asian countries raising output most. This is up 300,000 bpd over the last estimate.

"The return of economic growth and hence oil demand growth is fuelling the increase," the report said.

China's refinery output will jump by 900,000 bpd from a year ago, helping to offset a fall of 440,000 bpd in OECD countries.
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby wintler2 » Wed Apr 14, 2010 5:52 am

operator kos wrote:The air force already has fully functional biofuel jets:
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/03/air-force-debuts-biofuel-guzzling-warthog

Not so fast.
Wired wrote:a fuel derived from camelina oil with conventional JP-8 jet fuel. ..
..The current fleet of aircraft consumes 2.4 billion gallons of jet fuel per year.

1:1 mix i believe. They will run trials with other aircraft .. next year. Only they would know if thats because of technology problems or lack of supply. Growing camelina is itself a highly mechanised process, send more diesel please. Good article on camelina [url="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2009/06/biofuel-could-lighten-jet-fuels-carbon-footprint-over-80-percent?cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-June24-2009"]here[/url].
operator kos wrote:I suspect, however, that they also already have vehicles that don't use combustion engines at all, so it may be a moot point.

And they're not using them to win the two wars they're currently losing because.. ?
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby wintler2 » Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:27 am

justdrew wrote:.. The relatively low levels of investment and work on new production sites is damning. How can that even be explained given the high profit levels? Where are the profits being invested if not into new development? wtf


If investment is low (is it?), the lack of discoveries might explain lack of new production sites.
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Or maybe the costs are outpacing inflation (v.likely as net energy declines).
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby Hugh Manatee Wins » Wed Apr 14, 2010 2:29 pm

Translation-

"U.S. Military Government Wants to Achieve Acquisition of Caspian Sea Oil and Gas
Within Two Election Cycles"

..so expect a serious ramp-up of anti-Iran militarization and 'coalition building' to get that obstacle out of the way, not a retreat.

General Stanley McCrystal's career path looks good!
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby Belligerent Savant » Wed Apr 14, 2010 3:46 pm

Peak Oil -- Bah.

Fiction.

There is no "finite" amount of oil. And, it is not a fossil fuel.

Abiotic oil, as it is more accurately named, is not "finite".

In sum, any "shortage" would be a falsehood, and serve to only benefit the select few --- invariably the same 'select few' behind many other manufactured events of the current or recent epoch...
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby operator kos » Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:36 pm

operator kos wrote:I suspect, however, that they also already have vehicles that don't use combustion engines at all, so it may be a moot point.

wintler2 wrote:And they're not using them to win the two wars they're currently losing because.. ?


Well...

A) The western elite have no desire to win the Global War on Terror. It is meant to be an indefinite conflict which, as Dick Cheney and others have assured us, "will not end in our lifetimes".

B) There would be no point in deploying Mach 10 Zero Point Antigravity Triangles, or whatever the fuck they have. The "enemy" doesn't even have an air force. As amply demonstrated by the recent wikileaks video, the military has more than enough capacity for mowing people down with miniguns in Apache helicopters. Why deploy ultra-secret next-gen technology which might then fall into the hands of the Chinese?

and

C) If you don't think this technology (or something like it) exists, come up with a better explanation for the triangles the Belgian Air Force tried to intercept in 1990.

As an aside, I'm not so rosy as people like Steven Greer, who think that cold fusion/zero point/whatever could miraculously solve the world's energy problems either. What if the machines to produce this "free" energy require an abundance of rare earth elements? Unless we also have extremely advanced nanotechnology secreted away somewhere, there are material limits to the problem as well.
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Re: U.S. Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Postby operator kos » Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:53 pm

Belligerent Savant wrote:Peak Oil -- Bah.

Fiction.

There is no "finite" amount of oil. And, it is not a fossil fuel.

Abiotic oil, as it is more accurately named, is not "finite".

In sum, any "shortage" would be a falsehood, and serve to only benefit the select few --- invariably the same 'select few' behind many other manufactured events of the current or recent epoch...


Right... as clearly proven by the noted petroleum geologists, Dr. Alex Jones and Dr. Jeff Rense.
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