Black Box OBL

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Black Box OBL

Postby JackRiddler » Fri May 06, 2011 8:53 pm

Image
Yeah, I wish this was me.

Pakistan -- is the hostility real or kabuki? Is the OBL death a propaganda collaboration by elements of both states, or, as currently given, a raid by the US in violation of the Pakistani authorities' will? Is it the beginning of drawdown for the empire, or, as many here seem to think, the prelude to a new false flag atrocity and a World War III scenario? Was Black Box OBL successfully hiding from everyone, protected by a deal with the ISI, under house arrest, or already dead? Was his location known to elements in either state prior to the US claim of discovering him, and if so, when?

I keep saying it: developments will show likely answers to at least some of these questions. You won't get the direct indisputable details, but you will see outlines of the truth in what the various actors say and do in the weeks to come. A great deal of that will be kabuki and/or clueless noise. Different Pakistani officials will (and already have) say Pakistan tipped off the Americans; Pakistan didn't know but doesn't mind the operation; Pakistan didn't know and is outraged by the operation. All may be true, depending on the speaker and understanding of what constitutes "Pakistan." American officials and media will offer up (and already have provided) a similarly confusing mix of statements, including that "Pakistan" knew nothing, knew where OBL was, left him unmolested, was taken by surprise when the raid came, would have tipped him off if they knew, etc. etc.

If aid to Pakistan continues and a hostile confrontation does not occur, I will take that as support or consistent with (hardly proof) for the hypotheses I currently prefer:

My own current reading of the shadows is that OBL passed from relative autonomy in Afghanistan into either death or the hands of handlers at the Pakistani ISI in 2001. Either they kept him under house arrest, or, knowing he was dead, they effectively gained spook rights to construction of his legend, which they could sell to American collaborators. Assuming the man or the body is in the right hands and no one who could or would ruin the game can show it, his real status and fate go into a black box and his legend can be controlled by his sponsor-captors-freezer-handlers.

Starting already in 2001 or at some point since, an understanding with a relevant box within the American national security state is obtained (Alec Station would be an obvious candidate, though it has blinked in and out of existence). Dead or alive, the OBL brand will be a joint propaganda production. Videos and audio to maintain the legend and boost the Bush agenda are put out for discovery by SITE and the like. (One weakness in my ideas may be the incredibly botched production values of these videos, especially the laughable "still image" video of 2007.) Again, it doesn't matter who is in the videos as long as the real man or the body is in the black box. Also likely put out by the same handlers are many of the "Al Qaeda" statements, e.g. the ones by the "al-Amriki" characters and the silly English language mag. This isn't to say that Islamist extremist cells are all staged, far from it, but since these cells are autonomous and not centrally commanded and controlled, the power of constructing the legend goes to anyone who has the real OBL in hand or knows he's dead. (It's not unlike the vulnerability of Anonymous, which we are now seeing, to outsiders claiming that they are Anonymous.)

Once joint legend production begins, neither side can afford to burn the other and both derive their benefits in profit or aid, as do the other parts of the parapolitical realm involved in the AfPak operations and other windfalls derived from constructed terror. The Americans finally exercise their option to stage an OBL killing when it best suits them. The old administration loved the production to pieces and didn't contemplate ending it. The new administration decided it could do better by cashing it in. Administration figures don't all need to know what is real, they get what they want delivered and need not question it if they like it. Pakistani officials can't be seen collaborating on the strike, and need deniability on both claims, that they harbored Bin Ladin and that they forked him over. So they get to make contradictory statements, all of which will be treated as forgotten in two months.


So here are a whole bunch of interesting and mixed signals:


http://www.businessinsider.com/pakistan ... -us-2011-5

Pakistan Can Still Count On U.S. Aid

Merrill Goozner, The Fiscal Times | May 3, 2011, 4:41 PM | 298 |

See Also:
Pakistan Says It Had No Idea Where Osama Bin Laden Was Hiding
CIA Chief: U.S. Feared Pakistan Would Tip Off Bin Laden

Gallup: Public Gives Military, CIA High Marks For Bin Laden Raid


The White House on Monday defended continuing U.S. aid to Pakistan in the wake of revelations that Osama bin Laden was hiding out in a million-dollar walled compound near Islamabad before he was slain by U.S. forces on Sunday.

Doubts about whether Pakistan has been a trusted partner in the effort against al-Qaida surfaced again after learning that the residence was located in an area surrounded by Pakistan military.

Even as John Brennan, the White House advisor on homeland security, contradicted Pakistan’s claims that the government was given advance warning by U.S. intelligence officials about the raid that led to the death of the 9/11 mastermind, he praised Pakistan’s efforts in the long-running war on terror. Brennan pledged continued military and foreign aid, which has totaled $18 billion since 2002, two-thirds of it security-related.

“That partnership is critically important to breaking the back of al-Qaida,” Brennan said during a White House press briefing. Bracing for what is certain to be heightened scrutiny of foreign military assistance to Pakistan, especially in the current tight fiscal environment; he called questions about aid to Pakistan “legitimate.” Bin Laden’s “location there raises questions,” Brennan said. “They [Pakistani government officials] seemed as surprised as we were that he was holding out” so close to the capital of Pakistan.

Leaders on Capitol Hill stopped short of calling for cutbacks in aid, but pledged heightened scrutiny of both civilian and military programs, which have come under fire in recent months. The Government Accountability Office recently released a critical analysis of the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009, which pledged $7.5 billion in civilian aid to the world’s second largest Muslim country over the next five years.

Just $180 million of the first year’s appropriation was spent, GAO said, because Pakistani organizations “lack the capacity to efficiently and effectively implement and monitor U.S.-funded projects.” By contrast, U.S. military support in the last few years has flowed freely, including $500 million for maritime patrol aircraft, $476 million for updating Pakistan’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets, and over $200 million for anti-tank missiles.


Yet the heightened military hardware apparently hasn’t won their loyalty, at least not entirely. Two weeks ago, the top U.S. military officer, Admiral Michael Mullen, accused Pakistan's intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), of maintaining ties to militants targeting U.S. troops in neighboring Afghanistan. “Their bureaucratic structures are fragmented and their loyalties are fragmented,” said Jack Jacobs, a former military officer who monitors events in the Middle East and South Asia. “A majority, in the military, in the ISI, have been hostile to American efforts to get rid of terrorism.”

That issue may finally be ripe for scrutiny on Capitol Hill in the wake of Sunday’s successful raid. “I think the Pakistani army and intelligence have a lot of questions to answer – the location, the length of time and the apparent fact that this facility was actually built for bin Laden and it’s close to the central location of the Pakistani army,” Senate Armed Services Committee chairman Carl Levin, D-Mich., told reporters on Capitol Hill. “I think the army and the intelligence of Pakistan – there are plenty of questions that they should be answering.

But Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., chairman of the House Intelligence committee, cautioned that “we have to remember this: there are still some counter-terrorism needs that we have that are mutually beneficial between Pakistan and the United States. . . I would be very careful about saying that we’re going to throw them overboard given how many other targets that are really critical for us to go after,” he said in an interview on MSNBC.

The U.S. embrace of Pakistan’s military and intelligence establishment to help fight the war on terror has exacted a commercial price, too. Last week, India’s government rejected a Boeing bid to sell an older version of its F-16s to that fast-growing economy. It would have been the largest U.S. foreign jet sale in nearly two decades.

India, which is now negotiating the deal with European manufacturers, who are willing to sell their latest jets, needs to replace its 1970s-era air force comprised of MIG-21s, which were produced by the former Soviet Union. “We weren’t able to offer our most advanced fighters to India because of our relationship with Pakistan,” said Heather Hurlburt, executive director of the National Security Network, a Washington-based think tank. “We told them we wouldn’t sell them anything more advanced than what we sell the Pakistanis.”

Pakistan officials have done little to help their own cause. Two weeks ago, Pakistan finance minister Hafiz Shaikh lashed out at U.S. critics, claiming it was “largely a myth” that U.S. aid to his country had totaled tens of billions since 9/11. However, the Congressional Research Service reported that since 2001 Congress has approved about $20 billion in direct grants for Pakistan, about half of it in unrestricted funds to combat terrorism, which isn’t counted as foreign aid.

The Pakistani official apparently was referring to the 2009 law, sponsored by Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Richard Lugar, R-Ind., which was designed to shift the focus of Pakistani aid from military support to civilian projects. That money must be appropriated every year, and as the GAO report pointed out, is slow in arriving because of poor financial controls in Pakistan’s underdeveloped civilian sector.

Some analysts suggested the death of bin Laden could trigger a long overdue reevaluation of U.S. policy in the region, which has emphasized nation-building in Afghanistan to prevent that country from becoming a safe haven for terrorists. U.S. troops are slated to begin leaving Afghanistan this summer. The analysts suggest the time has come to shift the focus of attention to impoverished Pakistan, which has received guns but not much else from the U.S.

“We spend way too much time thinking about Afghanistan,” said Hurlburt, “Pakistan, which will become the largest Muslim population in the world in five years, almost defaulted during the economic meltdown.”

This post originally appeared at The Fiscal Times.






http://www.english.rfi.fr/americas/2011 ... ter-claims

Article published the Wednesday 04 May 2011 - Latest update : Wednesday 04 May 2011

Pakistan tipped off US about bin Laden compound, minister claims


Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani called for the world's help in fighting "terrorism and extremism", during a visit to Paris which followed the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Pakistani Foreign Minister Salman Bashir has claimed that his country’s secret services, the ISI, told the US in 2009 that bin Laden’s compound was suspicious.


The ISI had tipped off the Americans but the resources of the US’s CIA were needed to determine whether the villa in Abottabad was an Al-Qaeda hideout, said Bashir.
[Because it's in outer space and Pakistan lacks the rockets?] He angrily rejected claims by CIA chief Leon Panetta working with Islamabad “could have jeopardised the mission”.

US officials have criticised Pakistan and questioned whether elements in Pakistan’s military and intelligence had known about the compound for five years and were providing a “support system” to the world’s most wanted man.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office called the raid an “unauthorised unilateral action” on Tuesday.

France may withdraw its troops from Afghanistan before 2014, Foreign Minister Alain Juppé told RFI’s sister TV station, France 24, after meeting Gilani on Tuesday. He also insisted that there must be cooperation with Pakistan, adding that Gilani had admitted that the operation showed a failure on the part of Pakistani security services.

The rest of the world shares the blame for the intelligence failure, Gilani said Wednesday.

"There is intelligence failure of the whole world, not Pakistan alone," he told reporters in Paris.

France could suffer reprisals for bin Laden’s death, Interior Minister Claude Guéant told RTL radio Thursday.

“Al Qaeda is a very decentralised organisation,” Guéant pointed out, warning that groups linked to it could take action against any country linked to the US-led presence in Afghanistan.

Over 300 armed police, as well as a smaller number of soldiers, are reported to have clamped a security cordon around the bin Laden compound Wednesday, subjecting residents to ID checks and body searches.






http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... eader.html

Osama bin Laden dead: Pakistan played 'pivotal role' in operation to kill al-Qaeda leader

Pakistan played a 'pivotal role' in the death of Osama Bin Laden, the country's foreign secretary Salman Bashir has said.


Image
Pakistan Foreign Secretary, Salman Bashir (R), Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister, Jaweed Ludin (C) and US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Marc Grossman join hands during a press conference in Islamabad Photo: AFP

7:29AM BST 04 May 2011


Salman Bashir told the BBC that US statements suggesting they were not trusted with details of raid was 'disquietening.'

CIA chief Leon Panetta has said no intelligence was shared with Pakistan for fear the raid would be jeopardised.

"He is entitled to his views but I know for sure that we have extended every cooperation to the US including the CIA, and to other countries as far as the campaign against terror is concerned, said Mr Bashir.

"All the significant al-Qaeda people who have been picked up, it was done by the ISI (Pakistan's Intelligence Service), from Pakistan towns and cities.

"Therefore this whole context that seems to have surfaced about the lack of trust is, in my view, sort of misplaced."
Related Articles

Pakistan 'shared information since 2009' 03 May 2011

Mr Bashir said Pakistan had indicated as far back as 2009 that the compound was a place that Osama bin Laden may have been hiding. [Yeah, and they couldn't just surround it, watch it, knock on the door and see.]

"The fact is on this particular occasion it was pointed out by our intelligence quite some time ago to the US intelligence.

"Of course they have a much more sophisticated viewpoint to evaluate and assess but it's a fact that most of these things that have happened in terms of success against the global anti terror, Pakistan has a pivitol role.

"We had indicated as far back as 2009 (it was) a possible place. This whole issue of locating Osama bin Laden had been a priority for everyone in the world.

"Pakistan does not have to go over and over again its credentials in these matters."

But Mr Bashir admitted there were 'millions' of other places that Osama bin Laden might have been and said they had been primarily concentrating on the 'caves and hideouts.'

Lieutenant General Asad Durrani, former head of Pakistan's Intelligence Service also told the BBC it was "more likely" the Pakistani government did know about the raid.

"It is more likely that they did know as far as ISI concerned they had some idea about the presence and of course as far as the operation itself is concerned it is not conceivable that it was done without the involvement of Pakistani security forces at some stage maybe late enough but the indications are that they were involved and they were told they were in position," said Lieutenant General Durrani who was director general of the ISI in the 90s.

"The army chief was in his office, the cordons were turned around that particular place police as well as the military.

"The pakistani helicopters were also in the air so that indicates that they were involved but as far as the knowledge is concerned it is possible that the one would not know about him all the time, but small part of it did know the idea was that."

Bin Laden was shot dead by US special forces in Abbottabad on Sunday.

On Tuesday the White House clarified the details of how the raid took place, saying bin Laden was unarmed when he was killed after resisting capture.

Dramatic description of bin Laden using his wife as a “human shield” and forcing her to sacrifice her life also proved to be false. The woman was still alive and was taken into custody with several of the terrorist’s children.

In an embarrassing climb-down, Barack Obama’s press secretary, Jay Carney, admitted that the previous version of events — which came mostly from the chief US counter-terrorism adviser, John Brennan — had been put out “with great haste”.

US officials have said they are considering when to make public their photographs of his corpse.

Mr Carney said the "gruesome" image could inflame sensitivities, but Mr Panetta said there was no question it would at some point be shown to the public.

He also appeared to cast doubt on suggestions that the US filmed bin Laden’s burial at sea by refusing to confirm that the video existed.






http://www.democraticunderground.com/di ... 35#4838298

Pakistan tipped off US about bin Laden compound, minister claims

Latest update : Wednesday May 04 2011

By Radio France International

Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani called for the world's help in fighting "terrorism and extremism", during a visit to Paris which followed the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Pakistani Foreign Minister Salman Bashir has claimed that his country’s secret services, the ISI, told the US in 2009 that bin Laden’s compound was suspicious.

The ISI had tipped off the Americans but the resources of the US’s CIA were needed to determine wether the villa in Abottabad was an Al-Qaeda hideout, said Bashir. He angrily rejected claims by CIA chief Leon Panetta working with Islamabad “could have jeopardised the mission”.

=snip=

France may withdraw its troops from Afghanistan before 2014, Foreign Minister Alain Juppé told RFI’s sister TV station, France 24, after meeting Gilani on Tuesday. He also insisted that there must be cooperation with Pakistan, adding that Gilani had admitted that the operation showed a failure on the part of Pakistani security services.

The rest of the world shares the blame for the intelligence failure, Gilani said Wednesday.

Full article: http://www.english.rfi.fr/americas/2011 ... ter-claims





http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/world ... nted=print

May 5, 2011
Pakistani Army Chief Warns U.S. on Another Raid
By JANE PERLEZ

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The head of Pakistan’s army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, said Thursday that he would not tolerate a repeat of the American covert operation that killed Osama bin Laden, warning that any similar action would lead to a reconsideration of the relationship with the United States.

In his first public reaction to the American raid early Monday that left many Pakistanis questioning the capacities of the nation’s army, General Kayani did not appear in person, choosing instead to convey his angry message through a statement by his press office and in a closed meeting with Pakistani reporters.

The statement by the army’s press office said, “Any similar action violating the sovereignty of Pakistan will warrant a review on the level of military/intelligence cooperation with the United States.”

General Kayani had decided that the number of American troops in Pakistan was to be reduced “to the minimum essential,” the statement said.

He did not specify the exact number of American troops asked to leave Pakistan, and it was not clear that the level was below what Pakistan had previously demanded after a C.I.A. contractor shot and killed two Pakistanis in January.

Then, the Americans were told that the number of Special Operations soldiers involved in a training program would have to be reduced to 39 from 120, that C.I.A. contractors would no longer be allowed to stay in Pakistan, and that other American officials who appeared to be working for the C.I.A., but whose jobs were not clearly defined, would have to leave, too.

Clearly, the Bin Laden raid has compounded Pakistani anger, and further worsened relations.

Calling the American raid a “misadventure,” General Kayani told the Pakistani reporters that another, similar, raid would be responded to swiftly, a promise that seemed intended to tell the Pakistani public that the army was indeed capable of stopping the Americans’ trying to capture other senior figures from Al Qaeda.

General Kayani’s blunt warnings came after he met with his top commanders at their monthly conference at army headquarters at Rawalpindi, a gathering of the top 11 generals. The meeting was devoted to the consequences of the raid, which has severely embarrassed the Pakistani military, leaving the nation’s most prestigious institution looking poorly prepared and distrusted by its most important ally.

The official statement acknowledged “shortcomings” in developing intelligence on the presence of Bin Laden in Pakistan, a reference to the fact that the Qaeda leader was hiding in a compound in Abbottabad, a midsize city that is home to a top military academy and is about two hours from Islamabad, the capital.

The C.I.A. had developed intelligence on Bin Laden with the Pakistanis in the early going when the Pakistani spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, had provided “initial information.”

But the C.I.A. did not share further development of intelligence on the case with ISI, “contrary to the existing practice between the two services,” an account that generally conformed with what American officials said in the aftermath of the Bin Laden raid.

Pakistani officials and Western diplomats have described General Kayani and Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the head of ISI, as seething with anger at the American go-it-alone action.

In an earlier account on Thursday, the foreign secretary, Salman Bashir, sought to dispel domestic criticism of Pakistan’s lack of response to the raid, saying that two Pakistani F-16 fighter jets were airborne as soon as the Pakistani military knew about the operation. But, by that time, he said, the American helicopters were on their way back to Afghanistan.

Mr. Bashir, speaking at a news conference, said that the Americans had used technology to evade Pakistani radar.

Alternately combative and defensive, Mr. Bashir said Washington should abandon the idea that Pakistan was complicit in helping Bin Laden hide. But he did not elaborate, saying only that the ISI had a “brilliant” record in counterterrorism.

Defending the Pakistani Army, the fifth largest in the world, Mr. Bashir said, “Pakistani security forces are neither incompetent or negligent about the sacred duty to the nation to protect Pakistan.”

But after withering criticism at home and abroad about how and why the Pakistani security forces could allow Bin Laden to be in Pakistan, the initial reaction here to Mr. Bashir’s appearance was mixed.

One of Pakistan’s best-known television journalists, Kamran Khan, who is regarded as a supporter of the military, dismissed the performance. “They have no answer,” Mr. Khan said. “We have become the biggest haven of terrorism in the world and we have failed to stop it.”

A retired ambassador and newspaper columnist, Zafar Hilaly, who has called for a public inquiry into Pakistan’s military, said that Mr. Bashir had erred in seeming to ask for the world’s sympathy by saying 30,000 Pakistani civilians and more than 3,000 soldiers had lost their lives in the fight against terrorism.

“The world wants to know whether we are effective,” Mr. Hilaly said.

Apparently in response to comments by American officials that the United States decided not to share details in advance with Pakistan because of a lack of trust, Mr. Bashir said, “All we expect is some decency and civility, especially in the public domain.”

The Pakistani authorities first learned of the operation when one of the American helicopters involved in the raid crashed at the Bin Laden compound.

“Immediately our armed forces were asked to check whether it was a Pakistani helicopter,” Mr. Bashir said. Although Abbottabad is home to a major military academy and three military regiments, he said, none of these institutions required sophisticated defenses that could have detected the impending raid.

The authorities learned that Bin Laden had been killed in the raid from surviving members of his family, he said.

Pakistan received the first official word from the United States about the covert operation when the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, called General Kayani about 3 a.m. Monday local time, Mr. Bashir said.

That call took some time to arrange, he said, because “secure sets” were needed. Mr. Bashir said Admiral Mullen had been the first to raise the issue of Pakistan’s sovereignty in the call, but he did not specify exactly what the admiral said. Later, President Obama telephoned the Pakistani president, Asif Ali Zardari.

The relationship between the United States and Pakistan will endure, the foreign secretary said, because “we share strategic convergence.”

In Washington, American aid to Pakistan faced new criticism. The top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Thursday expressed “deep and ongoing concerns” about the United States providing Pakistan more than $1 billion a year in security assistance in light of the discovery of Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad and other recent evidence that Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies are aiding militants.

The lawmaker, Representative Howard L. Berman of California, wrote in a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton that “Pakistan’s continued resistance to cooperate with the United States in counterterrorism bespeaks an overall regression in the relationship.”





Israel Shamir has been highly problematic as we've discussed on this board. But I see no reason to reject out of hand his recent articles on the Wikileaks files published in Counterpunch.


http://www.counterpunch.org/shamir05042011.html

May 4, 2011

CounterPunch Exclusive
Cross and Double Cross With Gitmo Files
US Knew Where Osama Was Since 2005


By ISRAEL SHAMIR

The unredacted Guantanamo files show clearly that the trail to Abbottabad was known to the US intelligence services at least since 2005, when al-Libi, another Abbottabad dweller, was captured.

Timing is everything. The US President announced killing of Osama bin Laden just as Wikileaks completed its publication of Guantanamo files. Was it coincidence? If not, what was the connection?

An answer to this question is directly connected with the cross and double cross accusations exchanged in the murky world where the intelligence services meet mainstream media.

Publication of the US secret papers, the Guantanamo Files, was done almost simultaneously by two competing media groups.
One was the Wikileaks of Julian Assange and their partners The Washington Post, The Daily Telegraph, the French Le Monde.

Another one was The New York Times, The Guardian, the Israeli Haaretz.

The Guardian said of the files: “They were obtained by the New York Times, who shared them with the Guardian, which is publishing extracts today, having redacted information which might identify informants. The New York Times says the files were made available to it not by Wikileaks, but "by another source on the condition of anonymity".

Haaretz made more of it: “A few media outlets, including The New York Times, the Guardian and Haaretz, obtained the documents from an independent source without the help of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who is under house arrest in Britain awaiting his appeal not to be extradited to Sweden, where he faces charges of rape and sexual assault.” The Guardian’s David Leigh twitted “double-crossing Assange!”

Now we’ll give you the story behind the story: who crossed and double crossed whom, which information was redacted and how did it lead to OBL?

In the beginning, the source was one; allegedly Private First Class Manning or whoever it was who got it and transferred to the Wikileaks of Julian Assange. The entire file is still far from being published – a big part of it was encrypted and uploaded as Julian Assange’s Insurance file. Assange published two tranches of that: the War Diary: Afghanistan War Logs and War Diary: Iraq War Logs. He prepared publication of the third tranche: a huge collection of the State Department cables (Cablegate: 250,000 US Embassy Diplomatic Cables) in the Guardian.

At that point, the data river forked. The treasure trove was copied by a Wikileaks German employee,Daniel Domscheit-Berg, who went AWOL after this appropriation. Domscheit-Bergmade a deal with David Leigh of the Guardian which then cold-shouldered Assange, declared the deal 'void', and shared the data with Bill Keller, editor of the NY Times. They published the cables after redacting them, or should we say "censoring" – removing everything the secret services demanded to remove. We wrote about it at length here in CounterPunch.

Julian Assange succeeded in regaining some lost ground: he established new partnerships, with the Daily Telegraph and others. The cables were being published all the time. And then Assange learned that the Guardian and theNew York Times planned to publish the Guantanamo files. There was no time to lose: in a few days, the Wikileaks team prepared the files and began to upload. So did the competitors, possessing the Domscheit-Berg appropriated copy. This was the double-cross.

Julian Assange succeeded in regaining some lost ground: he established new partnerships, with the Daily Telegraph and others. The cables were being published all the time. And then Assange learned that the Guardian and the New York Times planned to publish the Guantanamo files. There was no time to lose: in a few days, the Wikileaks team prepared the files and began to upload. So did the competitors, possessing the Domscheit-Berg appropriated copy. This was the double-cross per Leigh.

The Guardian and the New York Times have a big and skilful staff, a lot of research, rich archives. But they decided to play ball with the secret services of their countries, redacting information which might identify informants. What a hutzpah! Sometimes, the identity of “informants” is more important than the information.

For instance in the file of Adil Hadi al Jaz’iri Leigh and Keller removed the name of the informant
Image
from http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/guantan ... G-001452DP

To their misfortune and to our advantage, at this time the Wikileaks and the Guardian/NY Times were not a loving couple but two competing enterprises. And the Wikileaks published this file in full, warts and all.
Here is the name in full:

Image
http://www.andyworthington.co.uk/2010/0 ... r-nothing/

Abu Zubaydah the informer was the subject of intensive research, available here that makes clear: this unfortunate man was tortured by the CIA, with permission of US medics and Bush administration, to the point of the total collapse of his personality. He was one of the High Value Detainees; all of them suffered tortures beyond our ability to comprehend. Information they provided was not only unacceptable in court, it was of nil value because they said everything their tormentors wanted in order to gain a moment of peace.

Andy Worthington wrote: Since then, more and more compelling evidence has emerged to demonstrate that Abu Zubaydah was indeed nothing more than a “safehouse keeper” with mental health problems, who “claimed to know more about al-Qaeda and its inner workings than he really did”… “The United States would torture a mentally disturbed man and then leap, screaming, at every word he uttered.” Further confirmation was also provided that his torture yielded no significant information and led only to vast amounts of the intelligence agencies’ time being wasted on false leads. A year ago, summing up the results of Zubaydah’s torture, a former intelligence official stated, bluntly, “We spent millions of dollars chasing false alarms.”

Removal of his name by the Leigh-Keller gang was not “caring about informers”, it was caring about the torturers.

However the most important redactions by Leigh and Keller were directly dictated by the US intelligence services. The name of Nashwan Abd Al Razzaq Abd Al Baqi, or by another name, Abd al Hadi al Iraqi or by his number IZ-10026 was edited away from the file of Abu al-Libi (US9LY-010017DP) and elsewhere. This file is available in a redacted version of the Guardian and in the uncut version of Wikileaks. Comparison shows to what extent all the traces of al Iraqi were removed. It was not connected to “caring about informers”, for al Libi was dead, having allegedly committed suicide in a Libyan jail just before the arrival of the US Ambassador in Tripoli. The file of al Iraqi is missing in all databases; he was captured in 2005 and kept in various secret prisons, until transferred to Guantanamo where he is detained now.

Careful reading of the file shows that al-Libi was connected with al Iraqi since October 2002. In 2003, OBL stated al Libi would be the official messenger between OBL and others in Pakistan. In mid-2003, al Libi moved his family to Abbottabad, Pakistan and worked between Abbottabad and Peshawar. He maintained contact with al Iraqi.

And we know that OBL was found and killed in Abbottabad – just as this publication hit the pages of the newspapers. So the trail to Abbottabad was known to the American services at least since 2005, when al-Libi, another Abbottabad dweller, was captured.

What we do not know is the nature of the contacts between the US authorities and OBL.

What we do know is that David Leigh and Bill Keller tried to hid it from their readers. Their redacting of the Guantanamo files, like their redacting of the Cablegate, had nothing to do with “saving informers”.

David Leigh claimed that Assange "double-crossed" the paper by distributing the Gitmo files to various "right-wing" news organisations, meaning the conservative Daily Telegraph. This is rich. “Left” and “right” has very little meaning nowadays, after Blair and Clinton. What is important is the position on wars and overseas interventions, susceptibility to Secret Service meddling, subservience to the priorities of the state.

In France, right-wing Marine Le Pen stands against foreign interventions in Libya and Côte d'Ivoire , against payments to bankers, against the president, while left-wing Bernard Henri Levy supports wars and interventions, loves bankers, is a friend of the right-wing president Sarkozy.

In England, the Guardian is the leading newspaper for calls to war. Libya, Syria – the Guardian wants them bombed. Afghanistan, Serbia, Iraq, - the Guardian wanted them to be invaded. It is just the package is different: instead of right-wing jingoism, the Guardian served the neo-colonialist adventurism under delicate sauce of humanitarian intervention. The Guardian leads on hypocrisy. The Guardian is not the newspaper of the left; it is the problem of the left. The case of Guantanamo files proves that the Guardian redacted the most vital information as told by the CIA.

And Osama? What about Osama bin Laden? Now we know that the US knew of his whereabouts; they knew of the trail, they asked Leigh and Keller to remove relevant references. Why didn’t they capture him or kill him earlier?

OBL’s organisation did what the US authorities wanted to be done. They fought the Russians and ruined Afghanistan. They conspired and fought against Hezbollah, slaughtered Shias in Iraq, undermined Qaddafi, hated Hamas and Iran. They supported ethnic cleansing of ‘infidels’ in Chechnya and in the Balkans. They never ever attacked Israel: they preserved their vigor for Sayyed Nasrallah. Like a dreadful beast nurtured in the CIA secret labs, only once they reportedly rebelled against their merciless creator - on 9/11. Osama was greater than, but similar to such American friends as Jonas Savimbi of Angola or Shamil Basayev of Chechnya, and hopefully after his death his organization will vanish like Unita and Basayev did.

The Guantanamo files reveal utter wretchedness of Osama’s unlucky followers. With exception of a few dozen close associates, the rest of the prisoners made a wrong choice ever listening to him. They (especially foreigners) were idealists, who wanted to establish the Kingdom of God upon the earth; they were encouraged by the US to flock to Afghanistan to fight the Commies. The majority of them never even had a chance to hold the gun. They, the foreigners in Afghanistan and Pakistan were sold for bounty to the Americans as fast as possible. They paid for this by years of torture. And now they are about to learn that their supreme chief was safeguarded by the same Americans who tortured them!

But in the mind of the Muslim masses OBL will be remembered (justly or not) as the architect of the only successful response of the oppressed to the Empire on its own soil. And that ensured him greatness of his own and a place in history.

Israel Shamir can be reached at adam@israelshamir.net

World copyright CounterPunch





http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4840123

George Bush angry at Obama's Ground Zero 'victory lap'

Source: Daily Mail

By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
Last updated at 2:32 PM on 5th May 2011

Former president George Bush is angry at Barack Obama for not giving him or his administration credit in the discovery and killing of Osama Bin Laden, it was reported today.

Bush, who arguably set up the intelligence infrastructure that led to Bin Laden's bloody assassination, was 'rubbed the wrong way' after the President failed to acknowledge
his predecessor in the aftermath of Sunday's kill operation.

The spat comes as the President prepares to tour Ground Zero later today, meeting victim's families in private before laying a wreath at the disaster site.

snip

'Obama gave no credit whatsoever to the intelligence infrastructure the Bush administration set up that is being hailed from the left and right as setting in motion the operation that got Bin Laden. 'It rubbed Bush the wrong way.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ds-newsxml





http://missoulian.com/news/local/article_a463f892-7506-11e0-adf3-001cc4c03286.html

Schweitzer: With bin Laden dead, U.S. should leave Afghanistan

By GWEN FLORIO of the Missoulian | Posted: Monday, May 2, 2011 11:45 pm


The United States must take one more step to make things right following the killing of Osama bin Laden, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer said Monday.

Bin Laden's death "ought to put us in helicopters leaving Afghanistan," he said. "...There's no reason to stay. He's now dead. He's gone."

Schweitzer spoke with members of the Missoulian's editorial board Monday, a meeting originally scheduled to discuss the just-ended 2011 legislative session, which until Sunday night was the biggest news in Montana.

That news quickly was eclipsed by President Barack Obama's announcement that the U.S. military had killed bin Laden, who directed the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Along with millions of others, Schweitzer watched the coverage of reaction to the momentous event. The raucous celebrations around the country troubled him.

After all, he said, the nearly 3,000 deaths on Sept. 11 that launched the hunt for bin Laden are an unthinkable tragedy, perhaps best marked by somber reflection.

"I don't believe we ought to be dancing in the streets and waving American flags," he said. "... This is not like winning a hockey game," he said. "We killed an evil individual."

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that stemmed from the 9/11 attacks have claimed the lives of about 5,500 members of the U.S. military. But the conflict in Afghanistan quickly ceased to have anything to do with bin Laden, Schweitzer said.

"We went to Afghanistan for one reason and one only. We were going to shut down Al Qaeda and find and kill Osama bin Laden. There was no mention of the Taliban."

Yet Al Qaeda is largely gone from Afghanistan and U.S. troops are now focused on the Taliban, he said.

"We're a great country, but we weren't fighting one man. This is a clash of cultures, a clash of identities and it didn't end [Sunday] night when Osama bin Laden was killed. There's still something we need to resolve, but it doesn't mean we need to stay in Afghanistan or Iraq."

Schweitzer quoted his friend, the late Walter Breuning of Great Falls, who was the world's oldest man when he died last month at age 114.

The last time he saw Breuning - "a hell of an American" - the two joshed about running for president, the governor said. Breuning, said Schweitzer, straightened his tie and allowed as to how he might consider the idea. As president, Schweitzer asked him, what would he do?

"He said we had no business going in there and that we should leave," Schweitzer said.

And Schweitzer heartily concurred.

"A pox on all their houses," he said. "Load up. Leave. There's nothing to win. I don't even know what winning is there."

Missoulian reporter Gwen Florio can be reached at 523-5268, gwen.florio@missoulian.com, or CopsAndCourts.com.





Source: Daily Kos

WED MAY 04, 2011 AT 06:40 PM PDT

Pelosi on Afghanistan: 'very impressed for the first time with the intention to leave'

byChris BowersforDaily Kos

On a conference call today with progressive new media types, Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi indicated that, for the first time, she believes the United States military is prepared to withdraw from Afghanistan.

During the call, I asked Leader Pelosi "do you think the killing of Osama bin Laden will increase support in the House of Representatives for a more rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan?" While she said that she did not know the answer to that question at this time, she did relay some important information about a recent trip she took to Afghanistan.

On that trip, which took place over St. Patrick's Day weekend, Pelosi said "I was very impressed for the first time with the intention to leave." She indicated that in all conversations she had during her trip, from the highest echelons of the military and diplomatic corps to the rank and file soldiers in the field, "everything was about preparations to leave."

Pelosi added that "we will be on the President's timetable to begin the withdrawal of troops and go from there." This latter remark echoes what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters earlier in the week, that the killing of bin Laden will not result in an accelerated withdrawal timeline.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/0 ... iontoleave

Last edited by JackRiddler on Fri May 06, 2011 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby JackRiddler » Fri May 06, 2011 9:16 pm


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... s-children

Bin Laden's will says his children must not join al-Qaida

Newspaper prints will that says wives should not remarry and states his regret at neglect of children due to 'devotion to jihad'

Ian Black, Middle East editor
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 3 May 2011 11.57 BST

Osama bin Laden regretted not spending more time with his children and doesn't want them to follow in his footsteps.
Image
Photograph: Anonymous/AP

Osama Bin Laden's last wish, according to a document purported to be his will, was that his wives not remarry after his death and his children not join al-Qaida.

Al-Anbaa, a Kuwaiti newspaper, reported on Tuesday that the will, marked "private and confidential" was dated 14 December 2001, three months after the 9/11 attacks, when US forces were hunting him in Afghanistan.

The four-page document, written on a computer and signed by "your brother Abu Abdullah Osama Muhammad Bin Laden," predicts that he would die by the "treachery" of those around him. Al-Anbaa does not reveal how or when it obtained the will or whether it was able to authenticate it. Al-Majallah, a Saudi-owned Arabic magazine, published a similar document in 2002 but it was dismissed as a fraud by a pro-jihadi website.

In the document, Bin Laden lists the assault on New York's twin towers in a sequence beginning with the suicide bomb attack on US marines in Lebanon in 1983, the killing of 19 US marines serving as UN peacekeepers in Somalia in 1993 and the bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi in 1998.

But its most striking feature is that he orders his wives not to remarry and urges his children not to join al-Qaida or go to "the front", citing the example of the seventh century Muslim Caliph Omar bin Khattab to his son Abdullah. Bin Laden also asked his children to forgive him for not having spent enough time with them.

"I have chosen a path fraught with dangers and endured hardships, disappointment and betrayal. If it wasn't for betrayal, things would be different today.

"As for you, my sons, forgive me if I failed to devote more of my time to you since I answered the call to Jihad."

He ends his will by advising "the mujahideen wherever they are" to suspend "the fight against the Jews and the Crusaders and start to purge your ranks of agents and defeatists."



Alleged will in Arabic
http://www.alanba.com.kw/AbsoluteNMNEW/ ... &zoneid=13


http://www.kdvr.com/news/kdvr-sen-gary- ... 1754.story

Former Sen. Hart predicts another attack, despite bin Laden's death

Dave Young

dave.young@kdvr.com

6:12 PM MDT, May 3, 2011


DENVER -- Former Colorado US Senator Gary Hart famously warned that Osama bin Laden might be planning a major attack on US soil -- a statement he made several months before 9/11.

Hart, a co-chair of the bi-partisan Commission on National Security, predicted domestic terrorism could become the next big threat of the 21st Century as far back as the 1980s.

Hart and the Commission warned that "Americans will likely die on American soil, possibly in large numbers" seven months before the September 11 attacks and recommended an urgent review of activities of terrorists like bin Laden.

But now, Hart says Osama bin Laden's death really won't impact the threat of terrorism.

"We have treated the bin Laden death as a military victory, and it isn't," said Hart, now a Scholar in Residence at the University of Colorado at Denver.

Hart famously warned the Bush Administration as late as Sept. 5, 2001, about the possibility of an attack.

"The purpose of terrorism isn't to kill people. It's to frighten them, to change their behavior... by 9/11, look at how much behavior's changed (and) I don't just mean airports," Hart said.

The former Colorado Senator says the terrorist's goal is to destroy the US economy, and he believes the next attacks will come in the heartland, to cities like Denver, with something like a biological weapon.

"If you can make people frightened of a highly contagious virus, people won't go to sporting events, they won't go to shopping centers… you change cultural behavior," Hart says.

He criticized the US for launching a ground war against terrorism, and he doubts Osama bin Laden's death will change any balance of power. He also doubts there will be an immediate retaliation because of bin Laden's death, but he says another attack is likely at some point.

"Most of the experts I know believe we will be attacked in some form or another again, and it's just a question of when," he says.


Copyright © 2011, KDVR-TV


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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby JackRiddler » Fri May 06, 2011 9:23 pm


http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World- ... and_In_Abb

Pakistan 'Told US About Osama Home In 2009'


10:28pm UK, Wednesday May 04, 2011

Alex Crawford, special correspondent, in Abbottabad

Pakistan government and intelligence services have insisted they shared key information about Osama bin Laden's compound up to two years ago with their American counterparts.

Although the intelligence agency ISI transferred information about the residence, it denies knowledge of bin Laden being there.

A senior ISI source told me they got information that the terror leader's wife and sons were living at the compound in Abbottabad in the north-west of Pakistan, six months ago.

He insisted they shared this information with the CIA.

"It is as a result of the information we shared that they got Osama bin Laden," he told me.

[phew! where there enough different stories in those few sentences?]

Protesters in Pakistan demonstrate against the bin Laden killing

The episode has strained an already fraught relationship between the two agencies.

The CIA and the US administration have long held suspicions that there are elements within the ISI who are supporting militant groups, including al Qaeda.

They believe an exchange of critical information before the US Navy Seal operation would have jeopardised their chances of success, that is, bin Laden would have been tipped off and escaped.

Pakistan's prime minister defended his country's failure to spot that bin Laden was hiding out near the capital Islamabad, saying that fighting terrorism was the whole world's responsibility.

"There is an intelligence failure of the whole world, not just Pakistan alone," Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani said.

"Certainly we have intelligence sharing with the rest of the world, including the United States, so if somebody points out that there are ... lapses from the Pakistan side, that means there are lapses from the whole world," he said.


Police have reinstalled check points near the compound

The ISI sources I spoke to said this had only embarrassed the agency and undermined their relationship.

"The ISI has captured so many terrorists in operations we have organised and they should not be forgotten," he said.

"Our relationship will be affected because of the manner this was conducted.

"The Americans have always talked of leakage on our side," he went on, "they always say this without any basis."

See pictures of the compound Osama bin Laden was hiding in for up to six years

The Pakistan foreign office has said it has "deep concerns and reservations" about the US operation which ended in the death of an unarmed bin Laden.

The government warned that the controversial raid should not set a precedent and may sometimes "constitute a threat to international peace and security".

Meanwhile, the compound has once again been sealed off for inspection and examination by a senior intelligence team and the head of the ISI, General Pasha, is believed to be intending to personally visit the site.

On Tuesday, the police opened up the compound and hundreds of residents gathered to see the home where bin Laden had apparently lived and died.

Image
The prominent compound was built near a leading military academy


But now, check points have been re-imposed, with searches being undertaken of residents in the town.

The renewed security comes after the man who purchased the land in Pakistan where bin Laden's compound was built, was arrested.

It is believe that Gul Mohammed was taken into custody by police and will be interrogated by intelligence agents about the property.



Read more on the death of Osama bin Laden:

:: 'Osama Hid Under Pakistani Noses For Years'

:: Bin Laden Mission Reworked As Joint Effort


:: How Bin Laden's Trusted Aide Sealed His Fate

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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby 8bitagent » Fri May 06, 2011 9:30 pm

As I said in 2008, Obama only wanted to drawdown Iraq to put em in Afghanistan. So ten years on, the next war will come.
Excellent summary by the way. I wish I knew people in real life that knew 1/50th what you know, but not a single person I know knows anything about even basic 9/11 or modern Middle Eastern history.

I think you touch on a few key excellent points. While the "blame Pakistan" angle is touted and out there, at the end of the day "US and Pakistan are BFF"...for now

What could unhinge everything is another Lashkar(or LET looking attack) on India. Right now that's my concern.

Between you and me, as much I'm in the "show us evidence" crowd, I think I was right all along. The ISI, on behest of their globalist masters, snuck bin Laden out with the rest of the taliban and al Qaeda in late 2001. I mean Sy Hersh reported all this in 2002. "The Get Away".

I do feel bad for that woman, allegedly forced to stay in that room for 5 years. I think bin Laden got caught off the Arab and Saudi money tree because he's no long of any use. Probably under ISI protection, but at the behest of the CIA.

I do have some questions:

1. If an "al Qaeda attack" from al Qaeda central in Abbotabad had occured, wouldnt it have been somewhat the fault of the CIA if they had been monitoring him since August?

2. Is there ANYWHERE in the house that resembles the bin Laden videos, like the bizarre one from 2007? If not, than it's probably a fake. And why have all the bin Laden fakes been so bad?
Yet the Zawahiri videos look crisp, higher production? Where is that mansion book study Zawahiri is in?

3. If wikileaks had the name of the courier for ages, proving the US did: why move in now? Also, what would have happened if plucky online researchers or conspiracy theorists had published
details of the courier or even the abbotabad safehouse area online ahead of time?

4. Whats with the post Raymond Davis growing rift? Steamvalve? Short lived tiff?

5. As you said, time will tell what the real agenda is. So far it seems to be "al Qaeda is even more of a threat than we thought, they want revenge". But the government talks out of both side

"we can start drawing down/no we need to double down our efforts"

Truth is so subjective. Did the towers collapse or implode? If Ramzi Yousef dreamed up the 9/11 plot on his laptop, than is "al Qaeda" truly responsible or is this a lie too?
What if the neocons aren't aware they were involved as truthers say, and in some odd way really were paranoid about Islamists as much as they ran the 9/11 tragedy for all its worth?
Why hasnt the US gone after the people who financed bin Laden?

And the biggest one: If the US CIA is saying Pakistan helps the Taliban, and the US keeps giving them billions annually...doesnt that mean the US knows theyre paying for all the IEDs killing soldiers?
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby barracuda » Fri May 06, 2011 9:31 pm

Bin Laden was being held in a superposition like a virtual Schrödinger's jihadist, then they had to go and peek in the box, only to find that when the wave-form collapsed, the black cat was dead, and now everyone has to deal with the consequences of the new lack of indeterminacy.
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby 8bitagent » Fri May 06, 2011 9:37 pm

CIA house monitoring from nearby, Obama knew since August, ISI told of bin laden house in 2009...why is this all coming out now?

Now, Mr. Hart. Alex Jones always bragged how see saw delightful evil in the eyes of Hart months before 9/11 on some MSNBC program, bragging he had a feeling a major terror attack would happen.

On 9/12/2001 Hart said this tragedy should be used to start a new world order

Now, he's saying a big new attack is coming. I don't care if we start hearing this is the "summer of jellyfish attacks", malls start flooding with Israeli kids selling artwork, and ISI officials start meeting regularly in DC...Hart saying he senses a new attack is the most worrisome canary in the coal mine considering his words ten years ago.

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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby JackRiddler » Fri May 06, 2011 9:38 pm


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... -us-troops

Osama bin Laden killing sparks calls for early Afghanistan withdrawal

The killing of Osama bin Laden has opened up divisions inside Barack Obama's administration over whether the withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan, which is scheduled to begin this summer, should be bigger and faster than planned.

Politicians, soldiers and analysts from the US to Afghanistan have debated whether the removal of the al-Qaida leader will shorten the war and open the way for reconciliation with the Taliban.

The Pentagon, braced for a Taliban onslaught in the spring, wants only a token cut of about 2,000 of the 100,000 US troops in Afghanistan. But members of Congress called for significant cuts given that Bin Laden had been the reason for going into Afghanistan, a view shared by some in the White House who are thinking about Obama's re-election chances next year.

Obama is due to announce in July the scale of the troop drawdown.

Bin Laden's death is also having a continuing impact on US-Pakistan relations and members of Congress called publicly for the billions of dollars in US aid to Pakistan to be suspended.

The CIA director, Leon Panetta, contributed to the deteriorating relationship between the two countries when he told Time magazine that Pakistan could not be trusted with news of the mission.

"It was decided that any effort to work with the Pakistanis could jeopardise the mission. They might alert the targets," Panetta said.

The White House spokesman, Jay Carney, when asked about the US relationship with Pakistan, opted for a diplomatic approach. "It is a complicated but important relationship," he said.

SNIP

Barney Frank, a Democratic congressman who was until this year chairman of the House finance committee, told the ThinkProgress website: "We went there to get Osama bin Laden. And we have now gotten Osama bin Laden. So yes, I think this does strengthen the case." He added: "We just killed Osama bin Laden, and I think that takes a lot of the pressure away – a lot of the punch away from the argument that 'Ooh, it will look like we walked away'."

Richard Lugar, the most senior Republican on the Senate foreign affairs committee, speaking at a hearing on Afghanistan, referred to the $100bn (£61bn) the US planned to spend in Afghanistan next year. "It is exceedingly difficult to conclude that our vast expenditures in Afghanistan represent a rational allocation of our military and financial assets," he said.

Larry Sabato, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia, predicted: "One of the unintended consequences of Bin Laden's death will be American soldiers coming back faster.Listen to the man in the street. I can't count the number of times I have heard people say 'We can get out off Afghanistan faster'.

"People think the peace dividend is getting out of Afghanistan. By the summer, it will be unavoidable. We will have to get out faster."

The Pentagon, resisting major troop withdrawals, is arguing that big gains made by the US and its allies in Afghanistan over the winter would be put at risk if there was a significant cut in troops.

A Taliban commander, among those who escaped from Kandahar prison last week, agreed with the Pentagon assessment, predicting Bin Laden's death would not shorten the war. He told the Guardian: "The Afghans are fighting the foreigners, so killing Bin Laden won't affect anything. The fighting will not stop. We will be just as strong."

A western source in Kabul suggested the short-term impact of the killing could be to fuel the fighting: "They have killed the person of Bin Laden but not the reason why he exists and what he is for. They have destroyed his body, not his cause.

"In fact, they have created another martyr without addressing the fundamental reason why Osama and the movement behind him exists. America is still occupying two Muslim countries and bombarding another."

Michael Semple, who has held extensive talks with the Taliban as a European representative in Kabul and still maintains contacts, said the removal of Bin Laden might open the way for reconciliation with the Taliban.

"There is an interesting conversation going on now. One side says this shows that the Americans will be preparing to leave and we can ride it out. There is another pro-talks and pragmatic point of view that this could be helpful for a settlement, as it gets Osama off the agenda and makes the al-Qaida issue much easier to deal with," Semple said.

In western eyes, the killing of Bin Laden makes it easier to cut the tie because it ends the personal bond between him and the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar. But that only becomes relevant if serious peace talks start.

David Cameron joined the US in questioning Pakistan on how Bin Laden had a "support network" there.

The prime minister told MPs: "The fact that Bin Laden was living in a large house in a populated area suggests that he must have had a support network in Pakistan. We don't currently know the extent of that network, so it is right that we ask searching questions about it. And we will."

Adding to Pakistan's embarrassment, it has emerged that its intelligence service had raided the compound where Bin Laden was found in 2003 while it was under construction. The intelligence agents had been looking for an al-Qaida suspect, raising further questions why they failed to put the compound under surveillance in later years.

Cameron, who last year accused Pakistan of looking "both ways" on terrorism, declined to explain which elements in Pakistan may have assisted Bin Laden.

The prime minister warned that the killing could lead to a "lone wolf" attack. He said: "Clearly there is a risk that al-Qaida and its affiliates in places like Yemen and the Maghreb will want to demonstrate they are able to operate effectively. And, of course, there is always the risk of a radicalised individual acting alone, a so-called lone-wolf attack. So we must be more vigilant than ever– and we must maintain that vigilance for some time to come."






http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World- ... 5115984702

Bin Laden Mission Reworked As Joint Effort


6:22am UK, Wednesday May 04, 2011

Stuart Ramsay, chief correspondent, in Kabul


The mission to get Osama bin Laden is now being none too subtly recast as a shared achievement between the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The operation is being portrayed as reiterating the three countries' common commitment to the so-called 'war on terror'.

The fact is that the security services in Pakistan knew nothing and did even less to assist in the raid, because the country's secret service, the ISI, cannot be trusted.

It is the same reason that, time and again, the Afghan military and police are excluded from high-level security meetings.

There maybe a joint strategic effort between the three countries to destroy al Qaeda and degrade the Taliban. But not everyone involved is exactly on message.

Pakistani security services knew nothing about the raid

For a long time the ISI has been more than willing to turn a blind eye to Taliban movement across the border with Afghanistan and even actively assist members of al Qaeda and the Taliban.

An investigation will likely clear the ISI of officially assisting bin Laden, but that does not mean that senior members of the organisation were blissfully unaware that the most wanted man in the world was sitting in a house down the road from one of their main bases, which is what we are being told.

However, it may not be in the US' interest to pursue this point to the bitter end.

Relations between Pakistan and the US are at best strained when it comes to their strategic view of Afghanistan when the fighting stops, even if that looks to be a long way off.

But the White House calculations still have to include Pakistan as a main contributor ally in taking on this region's militancy.



It is thought bin Laden may have lived in the compound for up to six years


Pakistan wants to become the pre-eminent player in the region and is obsessed with growing Indian influence and downright furious over President Obama's ever closening relationship with their arch enemy.

The Kashmir factor is never far from the surface.

Some of Pakistan's top military leaders remain unconvinced about the future being mapped out by the US and resistant to implementing major changes to their own strategy of controlling Islamic militants.

The US and Afghanistan, for example, would like the border areas locked down. Ten years after 9/11, it still has not happened.

But Pakistan and the US are bedfellows, so they will try to muddle through.

Osama's Hideout From Air And Ground
See pictures of the compound Osama bin Laden was hiding in for up to six years


For the political elite in Pakistan there are some more tangible reasons to keep working relations on track; namely the billion or so dollars a year it gets in assistance from the US to fight terrorism.

That is not to mention the many millions of dollars worth of actual financial aid to help develop the country's infrastructure.

For President Zadari, the financial lifeline is an imperative to his own political ambition.

To remain in power and to develop his political powerbase the president must juggle the need for the cash and the need to appease a large number of people in Pakistan.

These people do not support militancy, but are equally unhappy at the West in general and the US in particular, meddling in their internal and near-foreign policies - especially when India is mentioned, yet again.


It's clear that a pretty significant side effect of killing bin Laden could be a guaranteed second term in the White House.
Sky's US correspondent Greg Milam


Afghanistan has an opinion as well, of course, and that must never be forgotten.

President Karzai has often-difficult relations with both the US and Pakistan.

The president has his own view of the future and being subjugated by another foreign power, any foreign power, is not something he or the Afghan people could stomach.

The death of Osama bin Laden may yet become a hugely significant development; not so much for a military or terror related reasons, but more because it has exposed how complex this whole region has become and how the main partners are often not reading from the same page.





A Cockburn never entertains doubts!


http://counterpunch.org/patrick05032011.html

Osama's Legacy
The Most Successful Terrorist Organization in History

By PATRICK COCKBURN

Al Qaeda is the most successful terrorist organization in history. By destroying the World Trade Centre in New York on 9/11 it provoked the US into launching wars damaging to itself in Afghanistan and Iraq. Al Qaeda aimed to destroy the status quo in the Middle East and it succeeded beyond its wildest dreams.

Its success has not been all its own doing. Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s number two and chief strategist, wrote at the time of 9/11 that the aim of the group was to lure the US into an over-reaction in which it would “wage battle against the Muslims.” Once the US was committed to a ground war, and no longer exercised its power primarily through local surrogates, the way would be open for Muslims to launch a jihad against America. By over-reacting, President Bush, aided by Tony Blair, responded to 9/11 very much as al-Qaeda would have wished.

In the decade since the attack on the Twin Towers “terrorist experts” and governments have frequently portrayed al-Qaeda as a tightly organized group located in north-west Pakistan. From some secret headquarters its tentacles reach out across the world, feeding recruits, expertise and money to different battlefronts.

Al-Qaeda has never operated like that. The closest it ever came to being a sort of Islamic Comintern was when it had several hundred militants based in the Tora Bora mountains of Afghanistan in 1996-2001. Even at that time, when it could operate more or less freely in the Afghan mountains, its numbers were so small that it would hire local tribesmen by the day to be filmed for al-Qaeda propaganda videos, showing its men marching and training.

Many of the most important al-Qaeda leaders from that era have since been detained or killed. But al-Qaeda has proved so hard to eradicate because it exists primarily as a set of ideas and methods for fighting holy war. Osama bin Laden’s target was primarily the US and its western allies, though this has not always been true of local franchises. Civilians were fair game because they had chosen or tolerated evil rulers. In its fundamentalist religious beliefs al-Qaeda is little different from Wahhabism, the puritanical and intolerant version of Sunni Islam that is dominant in Saudi Arabia.

Suicide bombing became the preferred method for al-Qaeda to wage war. It was tactically effective because it meant that untrained but fanatical recruits willing to die could be deployed as a lethal weapon capable of killing many enemies. Moreover, the public-self sacrifice of the bomber as a demonstration of Islamic faith was an important part of a successful operation.

The CIA and other intelligence agencies were criticized after 9/11 for failing to pick up on the threat posed by al-Qaeda early in the 1990s. But in practice it barely existed before 1996 when bin Laden moved to Afghanistan from Sudan and, even then, he was only one among several players leading Islamic Jihadi groups.

Since 2001 al-Qaeda has continued to exist organizationally mainly as a series of local franchises. In Iraq, for instance, al –Qaeda in Mesopotamia was led by a Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi who had previously opposed Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. Expanding rapidly among the defeated Iraqi Sunni after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, it launched a ferocious war of suicide bombings, though these were primarily directed against the newly dominant Shia Iraqis rather than Americans.

The US itself played a role in the expansion of al-Qaeda. In Iraq the US army spokesman in Baghdad attributed all armed attacks to al-Qaeda regardless of who carried them out. He hoped thereby to discredit the insurgents in the eyes of Shia Iraqis and the outside world. But within Iraq this only added to the high profile of the organization among those hostile to the new order of things, while abroad it made it much easier for al-Qaeda to raise money. The wave of anti-Americanism that swept the Muslim world after the invasion of Iraq also benefited the group.

One vicious aspect of al-Qaeda activities is always under-reported in the western media: It has always killed more Shia Muslims than it ever did Americans. The US occupation of Iraq benefited the group, but it was sectarian before it was nationalist. The Shia were seen as heretics as worthy of death as an American or British soldier. Again and again its suicide bombers would target Shia day laborers as they waited for work in public squares in the early morning in Baghdad or massive bombs would be detonated as Shia worshippers left their mosques. Likewise in Pakistan the Pakistan Taliban, ideologically linked to al- Qaeda, has shown equal enthusiasm for slaughtering Shia where ever they can be targeted.

Al-Qaeda had the advantage post 9/11 that it did not have to do much to have an impact in the US. It had entered US demonology to a degree that any action by it, however ineffectual or trivial, had an effect out of all proportion to its size or success: a Nigerian student, who had received training from al-Qaeda in Yemen, failed to blow up a plane over Detroit using explosives hidden in his underpants; a Pakistani man living in the US was unable to detonate explosives in a car in Times Square in New York. But as al-Qaeda in Yemen gleefully pointed out in a statement such failures had almost the same effect as a successful bombing in terms of the disruption and dismay caused.

No US government can afford to have another 9/11 take place without devastating retaliation from the voters. Washington had to be seen to be doing something successful to restore American confidence in its own strength. One of the reasons why George Bush’s administration had invaded Afghanistan and Iraq rather than devoting all efforts to hunting down bin Laden, was that the first two options seemed easy and the third was not.

Saddam Hussein was easy to puff up as a threat and eliminate in a way that was not true of the leader of al-Qaeda.

Bush set up a special cell to find bin Laden and Zawahiri. At his morning briefings during his final months in office he would ask plaintively: “How are you getting on getting number one and number two?” In the presidential election of 2008 the Democrats made the damaging, though somewhat spurious charge, that the White House had taken its eye off the ball in the pursuit of bin Laden in Afghanistan in order to invade Iraq.

Some US foreign policy specialists argued that bin Laden no longer mattered and, if he was alive, was cut off in a cave somewhere in the mountains on Pakistan’s north-west frontier. The argument was always dubious since it was not known where he was or how far, if at all, he was in operational control. In the event it turned out that bin Laden, at least in recent years, had moved far into the interior of Pakistan and was living in a house in Abbottabad, an hour’s drive north of the capital Islamabad.

The claim that bin Laden was operationally ineffective also missed the point that he remained a potent symbol. This had been true ever since 9/11 and all he had to do was to go on surviving for his survival to be a further sign that the US will could be frustrated. This is why bin Laden’s killing by US forces has importance, regardless of how far he master-minded different plots or was behind more recent attacks on the US.

His demise will have some impact on al-Qaeda itself, in so far as it exists as an organization but its main impact will be on American self-confidence. Of course, there will be Jihadi groups who will want to restore the balance of terror by making new attacks, but none are likely to have the same impact as 9/11. The psychological effect was so great not just because so many were killed but because of the uniquely public nature of the attack: the planes crashing into the World Trade Centre and the crumbling of the two towers.

Will al-Qaeda attacks be easier to carry out this year than in the past because of the fall or disruption of so many police states such as Egypt, Tunisia and Libya? The “strongmen” in the Arab world, like Hosni Mubarak or Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, had post 9/11 been swift to manipulate Washington to support their despotic regimes in return for them clamping down on Islamic fundamentalists. Sometimes the repression, as in Yemen, was less effective than it looked, but in Pakistan the authorities were prepared to locate and hand-over al-Qaeda members to the US while being careful to shield the Afghan Taliban.

But the collapse of the old order in the Arab world may play against al-Qaeda: it will no longer be the beneficiary to the extent it was in the past of the hatred felt towards local dictators allied to or tolerated by the US. Other ways of ending an intolerable political and social status quo have been demonstrated. Mr Mubarak effectively allied himself with Israel and the US during Israel’s war in Lebanon in 2006 and in Gaza in 2006. This created anger among many Egyptians which benefited fundamentalist Islamic groups but it is difficult to envisage future more democratic Egyptian governments being on such friendly terms with Israel. Al-Qaeda’s appeal will be diluted. But already its significance was mainly confined to the world of perceptions rather than real threats. This is why it is of such real importance that bin Laden, the symbol of so many American fears, is dead.


Patrick Cockburn is the author of "Muqtada: Muqtada Al-Sadr, the Shia Revival, and the Struggle for Iraq





http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/ma ... en-hideout

US troops were yards from Osama bin Laden house in 2008 – WikiLeaks files

US embassy cables show soldiers were due to perform a routine posting 'training the trainers' of Pakistan's federal military unit



James Ball
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 3 May 2011 17.50 BST


WikiLeaks reveals that US forces were stationed yards from Osama bin Laden's compound. Photograph: Faisal Mahmood/Reuters

US forces were stationed just a few hundred yards from Osama Bin Laden's Abbottabad compound in October 2008, according to reports within the WikiLeaks embassy cables.

The revelation that US forces were so close to the world's most wanted man in 2008 comes after material from the Guantánamo files suggested the US may have received the intelligence that led them to Bin Laden as early as 2008.

The US soldiers were due to perform a routine posting "training the trainers" of Pakistan's 70,000-strong federal military unit, the Frontier Corps.

Abbottabad is home to the Pakistan Military Academy, the country's version of Sandhurst in Britain, and trains officers from across the nation. The academy is streets away from where Bin Laden was tracked down and killed.

The information about the US troops is contained in the account of a meeting in Washington between the-then US deputy secretary of state, John Negroponte, and Pakistan's foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, discussing security co-operation and concerns across the country.

After both parties agreed the security plans lacked resources, Pakistan's national security advisor, Mahmud Ali Durrani, referred to the training co-operation.

"Durrani pledged Pakistan's support for the US Training-of-Trainers for the Frontier Corps starting in Abbottabad in October," the report read.

US forces may have visited the town for a second time, months later, according to the cable. "Due to the slow pace of construction, Durrani added he was doubtful that the more permanent training site at Warsak would be ready for the next iteration of training, scheduled in early 2009.

"Durrani thanked the US for its support of Pakistan's special forces, but requested more training and equipment to improve Pakistan's capacity, specifically citing lift capability and intelligence sharing."

Abbottabad is only infrequently mentioned in the 250,000 leaked embassy cables. The cables show the town, 35 miles north of Islamabad, also served as a distribution hub for US and UN aid in the wake of Pakistan's 2005 earthquake.

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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby Nordic » Fri May 06, 2011 9:41 pm

It seems that Bin Laden, a guy who needed insulin and dialysis daily, was holed up in that compound for a good long time, under the noses of his handlers, the ISI and the CIA.

The ISI were down the street and all around, the CIA were living next door.

His health has been failing, and they knew he was terminal, the question is what do they do about his imminent death?

So they concocted this piece of theater.

They dropped the "stealth" helicopter there and blew up half of it in order to give cover to the Pakistan military, so they could save face. "IT was the America's amazing technology that let them slip in!"

Bin Laden was buried somewhere, privately, family and friends, blah blah.

The "wife" was paid a ton of money to sing her song, and she will now live happily ever after in what will basically be a witness protection program.

What happens beyond that is anybody's guess, but I'm pretty sure the script was written before the death.

So we're just gonna have to sit back and watch the movie play out.
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby Nordic » Fri May 06, 2011 9:43 pm

ISI told of bin laden house in 2009...why is this all coming out now?


Dude, don't believe that bullshit. . That's from Rupert Murdoch. That's all about keeping the "we hate Obama" thing going and going and going ...

The CIA has known where he was since day one, along with the ISI. At least, the CIA people we're talking about, the inside guys, the ones who do all the "black" stuff, which is what all of this is, after all.
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby thatsmystory » Fri May 06, 2011 9:47 pm

8bitagent wrote:Truth is so subjective. Did the towers collapse or implode? If Ramzi Yousef dreamed up the 9/11 plot on his laptop, than is "al Qaeda" truly responsible or is this a lie too?
What if the neocons aren't aware they were involved as truthers say, and in some odd way really were paranoid about Islamists as much as they ran the 9/11 tragedy for all its worth?
Why hasnt the US gone after the people who financed bin Laden?


All the major al Qaeda attacks appear to have been facilitated by intelligence agencies. US government officials protected the hijackers. Peter Lance finds it odd the '98 embassy attacks weren't prevented. US intelligence was on to the Yemen hub before the Cole attack or 9/11.
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby JackRiddler » Fri May 06, 2011 9:49 pm

.

Not to turn this into a competing thread, but I did wish for one that was a bit more pedestrian-skeptical, not so much NWO, numerology, and guaranteed nuclear war coming right up. So I'm stealing Hallinan from the other thread again and re-re-re-posting here:

http://www.counterpunch.org/hallinan05062011.html

Bin Laden and the Great Game

By CONN HALLINAN



According to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Leon Panetta, the U.S. never informed Pakistan about the operation to assassinate al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Ladin because it thought the Pakistanis could "jeopardize the mission" by tipping off the target.

Maybe, and maybe not. This is, after all, the ground over which the 19th century "Great Game" was played, the essence of which was obfuscation. What you thought you saw or knew was not necessarily what was.

The "official" story is that three CIA helicopters—one for backup—took off from Jalalabad, Afghanistan and flew almost 200 miles to Abbottabad, most of it through Pakistani airspace. Pakistan scrambled jets, but the choppers still managed to land, spend 40 minutes on the ground, and get away.

Is it possible the helicopters really did dodge Pakistani radar? During the Cold War a West German pilot flew undetected through the teeth of the Soviet air defense system and landed his plane in Red Square, so yes. Choppers are slow, but these were stealth varieties and fairly quiet. But at top speed, the Blackhawks would have needed about an hour each way, plus the 40 minutes on the ground. That is a long time to remain undetected, particularly in a town hosting three regiments of the Pakistani Army, plus the Kakul Military Academy, the country's equivalent of West Point. Abbottabad is also 35 miles from the capital, Islamabad, and the region is ringed with anti-aircraft sites.

Still, it is possible, except there is an alternative scenario that not only avoids magical thinking about what choppers can do, but better fits the politics of the moment: that Pakistan's Directorate of Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) knew where Bin Ladin was and fingered him, estimating that his death would accelerate negotiations with the Taliban. Why now? Because for the first time in this long war, U.S. and Pakistani interests coincide.

Gen. Hammad Gul, former head of the ISI, told the Financial Times on May 3 that the ISI knew where he was, but regarded him as "inactive." Writing in the May 5 Guardian (UK), author Tariq Ali says that a "senior" ISI official told him back in 2006 that the spy organization knew where bin Ladin was, but had no intention of arresting him because he was "The goose that laid the golden egg." In short, the hunt for the al-Qaeda leader helped keep the U.S. aid spigot open.

Indeed, bin Ladin may have been under house arrest, which would explain the absence of trained bodyguards. By not allowing the al-Qaeda leader a private militia, the ISI forced him to rely on it for protection. And if they then dropped a dime on him, they knew he would be an easy target. As to why he was killed, not captured, neither the U.S. nor Pakistan wanted him alive, the former because of the judicial nightmare his incarceration would involve, the latter because dead men tell no tales.

As for the denials: the last thing the ISI wants is to be associated with the hit, since it could end up making the organization a target for Pakistan's home-grown Taliban. If the ISI knew, so did the Army, though not necessarily at all levels. Did the Army turn a blind eye to the U.S. choppers? Who knows?

What we do know for certain is that there is a shift in Pakistan and the U.S. with regards to the Afghan war.

On the U.S. side, the war is going badly, and American military and intelligence agencies are openly warring with one another. In December the U.S. intelligence community released a study indicating that progress was minimal and that the 2009 surge of 30,000 troops had produced only tactical successes: "There remains no clear path toward defeating the insurgency." The Pentagon counter-attacked in late April with a report that the surge had been "a strategic defeat for the Taliban," and that the military was making "tangible progress in some really key areas."

It is not an analysis agreed with by our NATO allies, most of which are desperate to get their troops out of what they view as a deepening quagmire. A recent WikiLeak cable quotes Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Union, saying "No one believes in Afghanistan anymore. But we will give it 2010 to see results." He went on to say Europe was only going along "out of deference to the United States." Translation: NATO support is falling apart.

Recent shifts by the Administration seem to signal that the White House is backing away from the surge and looking for ways to wind down the war. The shift of Gen. David Petraeus to the CIA removes the major U.S. booster of the current counterinsurgency strategy, and moving Panetta to the Defense Department puts a savvy political infighter with strong Democratic Party credentials into the heart of Pentagon. Democrats are overwhelmingly opposed to the war but could never get a hearing from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, a Republican.

The last major civilian supporter of the war is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but Gates, her main ally, will soon be gone, as will Admiral Mike Mullen, head of the Joints Chiefs of Staff. The shuffle at the top is hardly a "night of the long knives," but the White House has essentially eliminated or sidelined those in the administration who pushed for a robust war and long-term occupation.

A surge of sanity? Well, at least some careful poll reading. According to the Associated Press, six in 10 Americans want out of the war. Among Democrats 73 percent want to be out in a year, and a USA Today/Gallup Poll found that 72 percent of Americans want Congress to address an accelerated withdrawal. With the war now costing $8 billion a month, these numbers are hardly a surprise.

Pakistan has long been frustrated with the U.S.'s reluctance to talk to the Taliban, and, from Islamabad's perspective, the war is largely being carried out at their expense. Pakistan has suffered tens of thousands of civilian and military casualties in what most Pakistanis see as an American war, and the country is literally up in arms over the drone attacks.

The Pakistani Army has been deployed in Swat, South Waziristan, and Bajaur, and the U.S. is pressing it to invade North Waziristan. One Pakistani grumbled to the Guardian (UK), "What do they [the U.S.] want us to do? Declare war on our whole country?" For the 30 million Pashtuns in the northwest regions, the Pakistani Army is foreign in language and culture, and Islamabad knows that it will eventually be seen as an outside occupier.

A poll by the New America Foundation and Terror Free Tomorrow of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas in Pakistan's northwest—home and refuge to many of the insurgents fighting in Afghanistan—found some 80 percent oppose the U.S. war on terror, almost nine in every 10 people oppose U.S. attacks on the Taliban, and three quarters oppose the drone attacks.

The bottom line is that Pakistan simply cannot afford to continue the war, particularly as they are still trying to dig themselves out from under last year's massive floods.

In April, Pakistan's top military, intelligence and political leadership decamped to Kabul to meet with the government of Harmid Karzai. The outcome of the talks is secret, but they appear to have emboldened the parties to press the U.S. to start talking. According to Ahmed Rashid, author of "Taliban" and "Descent into Chaos," the White House is moving "the fledgling peace process forward" and will "push to broker an end to the war." This includes dropping "its preconditions that the Taliban sever links with al-Qaeda and accept the Afghan constitution before holding face-to-face talks."

Given that in 2008 the Taliban agreed to not allow any "outside" forces in the country and pledged not to pose a danger to any other country, including those in the West, this demand has already been met. As for the constitution, since it excluded the Taliban it will have to be re-negotiated in any case.

While there appears to be a convergence of interests among the major parties, negotiations promise to be a thorny business.

The Pentagon will resist a major troop drawdown. There is also opposition in Afghanistan, where Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara minorities are deeply suspicious of the Taliban. The Karzai government also appears split on the talks, although recent cabinet shuffles have removed some of the more anti-Pakistan leaders.

Then there is the Taliban, which is hardly a centralized organization, especially since U.S. drone attacks and night raids have effectively removed more experienced Taliban leaders, leaving younger and more radical fighters in charge. Can Taliban leader Mullah Omar deliver his troops? That is not a given.

Both other insurgent groups—the Haqqani Group and Hizb-i-Islami—have indicated they are open to negotiations, but the Americans will have a hard time sitting down with the Haqqanis. The group has been implicated in the deaths of numerous U.S. and coalition forces. To leave the Haqqani Group out, however, will derail the whole process.

The U.S. would like to exclude Iran, but as Rashid points out, "No peace process in Afghanistan can succeed without Iran's full participation." And then there is India. Pakistan sees Indian involvement in Afghanistan as part of New Delhi's strategy to surround Pakistan, and India accuses Pakistan of harboring terrorists who attack Indian-controlled Kashmir and launched the horrendous 2008 attack on Mumbai that killed 166 people.

Murphy's Law suggests that things are more likely to end in chaos than reasoned diplomacy. But self-interest is a powerful motivator, and all parties, including India, stands to gain something by ending the war. India very much wants to see the 1,050-mile TAPI pipeline built, as it will carry gas from Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan and Pakistan, to Fazilka, India.

A lot is at stake, and if getting the peace process going involved taking out Osama bin Ladin. Well, in the cynical world of the "Great Game," to make an omelet, you have to break eggs.

Back in the Victorian era the British Army marched off singing a song:

We don't want to fight but by jingo if we do
We've got the ships, we've got the men, and we've got the money too


But in the 21st century most our allies' armies don't want to fight, ships are useless in Afghanistan, there aren't enough men, and everyone is broke.



Conn Hallinan can be reached at: ringoanne@sbcglobal.net
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby JackRiddler » Fri May 06, 2011 9:59 pm

8bitagent wrote:2. Is there ANYWHERE in the house that resembles the bin Laden videos, like the bizarre one from 2007? If not, than it's probably a fake. And why have all the bin Laden fakes been so bad?
Yet the Zawahiri videos look crisp, higher production? Where is that mansion book study Zawahiri is in?


I'll try that one. I'll say Z is for real and cares about his production values. Who says Zawahiri has talked to Bin Ladin in the last 10 years? Would he announce it if he hadn't, and discredit his movement? AQ is a decentralized phenomenon, where any spook center can walk in and set up a phony franchise and the rest will never know. The OBL videos may look so fake as part of the routine: hairy ugly crazy man with bad lighting talks about bad corporations like Michael Moore and says, Death to America, read Chomsky, vote for Kerry!

And the biggest one: If the US CIA is saying Pakistan helps the Taliban, and the US keeps giving them billions annually...doesnt that mean the US knows theyre paying for all the IEDs killing soldiers?


Yeah, well that's sort of what I'm arguing. They're financing the other side in their own war.

Think of it like this: the main war is on Afghanistan, except thanks to the British and the Durand Line drawn after the Afghan wars in the 1880s, Afghanistan is on both sides of the border to Pakistan.

.
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby barracuda » Fri May 06, 2011 11:06 pm

8bitagent wrote:2. Is there ANYWHERE in the house that resembles the bin Laden videos, like the bizarre one from 2007? If not, than it's probably a fake. And why have all the bin Laden fakes been so bad?
Yet the Zawahiri videos look crisp, higher production? Where is that mansion book study Zawahiri is in?


You mean this one?

Image

Check the background here:

Image

Found here.

Phoney multi-volume sets of fancy-bound gilt-edged display books meant to evoke the cultured evidence of a traditional classical educational setting in the background are SOP for Al-Qaeda photo-ops.

Image
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby Project Willow » Fri May 06, 2011 11:34 pm

JackRiddler wrote:Pakistan -- is the hostility real or kabuki? Is the OBL death a propaganda collaboration by elements of both states, or, as currently given, a raid by the US in violation of the Pakistani authorities' will?


Big dog n' pony show. Violations of law matter naught considering our financial backing of Pakistani military and ISI.

JackRiddler wrote:Is it the beginning of drawdown for the empire, or, as many here seem to think, the prelude to a new false flag atrocity and a World War III scenario? Was Black Box OBL successfully hiding from everyone, protected by a deal with the ISI, under house arrest, or already dead? Was his location known to elements in either state prior to the US claim of discovering him, and if so, when?


Already dead, almost a decade, that's why Big dog n' pony show. C'mon, c'mon, c'mon people, how many folks survive in hiding on dialysis for a fucking decade? Hmm? Hmm?


JackRiddler wrote:I keep saying it: developments will show likely answers to at least some of these questions. You won't get the direct indisputable details, but you will see outlines of the truth in what the various actors say and do in the weeks to come. A great deal of that will be kabuki and/or clueless noise. Different Pakistani officials will (and already have) say Pakistan tipped off the Americans; Pakistan didn't know but doesn't mind the operation; Pakistan didn't know and is outraged by the operation. All may be true, depending on the speaker and understanding of what constitutes "Pakistan." American officials and media will offer up (and already have provided) a similarly confusing mix of statements, including that "Pakistan" knew nothing, knew where OBL was, left him unmolested, was taken by surprise when the raid came, would have tipped him off if they knew, etc. etc.


The most viable and legitimate coverage I've seen is from that guy who lived there who said he'd never seen OBL in his neighborhood.


JackRiddler wrote:If aid to Pakistan continues and a hostile confrontation does not occur, I will take that as support or consistent with (hardly proof) for the hypotheses I currently prefer:

My own current reading of the shadows is that OBL passed from relative autonomy in Afghanistan into either death or the hands of handlers at the Pakistani ISI in 2001. Either they kept him under house arrest, or, knowing he was dead, they effectively gained spook rights to construction of his legend, which they could sell to American collaborators. Assuming the man or the body is in the right hands and no one who could or would ruin the game can show it, his real status and fate go into a black box and his legend can be controlled by his sponsor-captors-freezer-handlers.


PW- of course he was dead Jack

JackRiddler wrote:Starting already in 2001 or at some point since, an understanding with a relevant box within the American national security state is obtained (Alec Station would be an obvious candidate, though it has blinked in and out of existence). Dead or alive, the OBL brand will be a joint propaganda production. Videos and audio to maintain the legend and boost the Bush agenda are put out for discovery by SITE and the like. (One weakness in my ideas may be the incredibly botched production values of these videos, especially the laughable "still image" video of 2007.) Again, it doesn't matter who is in the videos as long as the real man or the body is in the black box. Also likely put out by the same handlers are many of the "Al Qaeda" statements, e.g. the ones by the "al-Amriki" characters and the silly English language mag. This isn't to say that Islamist extremist cells are all staged, far from it, but since these cells are autonomous and not centrally commanded and controlled, the power of constructing the legend goes to anyone who has the real OBL in hand or knows he's dead. (It's not unlike the vulnerability of Anonymous, which we are now seeing, to outsiders claiming that they are Anonymous.)


Very astute.

JackRiddler wrote:Once joint legend production begins, neither side can afford to burn the other and both derive their benefits in profit or aid, as do the other parts of the parapolitical realm involved in the AfPak operations and other windfalls derived from constructed terror. The Americans finally exercise their option to stage an OBL killing when it best suits them. The old administration loved the production to pieces and didn't contemplate ending it. The new administration decided it could do better by cashing it in. Administration figures don't all need to know what is real, they get what they want delivered and need not question it if they like it. Pakistani officials can't be seen collaborating on the strike, and need deniability on both claims, that they harbored Bin Ladin and that they forked him over. So they get to make contradictory statements, all of which will be treated as forgotten in two months.


Not quite, administrations are not in control of these decisions, administrations are being lead, as well as Pakistani Intelligence and Admin, by PTB. Big, big show everybody, hello, pay attention! No, they went in and killed some quasi-revolutionary types in Pakistan, had nothing to do with Al Qaeda of course, as that group was a creation of the US and was obliterated subsequent 911.

That's where I stop and I hope others sift the remaining, I don't have the resources to do so. I just hope this post signifies that at least one US citizen does not believe the propaganda.
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Re: Black Box OBL

Postby bks » Sat May 07, 2011 12:09 am

8bit wrote:
And the biggest one: If the US CIA is saying Pakistan helps the Taliban, and the US keeps giving them billions annually...doesnt that mean the US knows theyre paying for all the IEDs killing soldiers?


JR wrote:

Yeah, well that's sort of what I'm arguing. They're financing the other side in their own war.

Think of it like this: the main war is on Afghanistan, except thanks to the British and the Durand Line drawn after the Afghan wars in the 1880s, Afghanistan is on both sides of the border to Pakistan.


Nice to see we all agree on this. But I still think the big story is the fact that the media, while reporting on it, just refuse to follow the implications of US's funding both sides and turn it into the big story it deserves to be. This is hardly the first time we've been presented with strong evidence that the US is playing both sides [or all sides], and that prolonging hostilities in Afghanistan provides the needed justification for the continued military presence. It just doesn't seem to fucking matter. From last year:

http://www.alternet.org/news/147217/the ... age=entire



JR wrote:

If aid to Pakistan continues and a hostile confrontation does not occur, I will take that as support or consistent with (hardly proof) for the hypotheses I currently prefer:

My own current reading of the shadows is that OBL passed from relative autonomy in Afghanistan into either death or the hands of handlers at the Pakistani ISI in 2001. Either they kept him under house arrest, or, knowing he was dead, they effectively gained spook rights to construction of his legend, which they could sell to American collaborators. Assuming the man or the body is in the right hands and no one who could or would ruin the game can show it, his real status and fate go into a black box and his legend can be controlled by his sponsor-captors-freezer-handlers.


Per our discussion today, I still think a US decision not to attack Pakistan can't be counted as evidence for your 'kabuki' hypothesis. There's too much to risk in a US attack even if it were clear [which it ain't] that Bin Laden was being shielded by ISI without US knowledge of same.

The real cherry on the sundae here is the propaganda victory that the US will seek in selectively leaking the contents of that 'treasure trove' of documents that supposedly turned up. Like the rest of us, the Obama Administration was reminded of the power of the information drip from the success of Wikileaks' media strategy. I would expect more nuggets to come out over the next several weeks to keep the story alive.

Starting already in 2001 or at some point since, an understanding with a relevant box within the American national security state is obtained (Alec Station would be an obvious candidate, though it has blinked in and out of existence). Dead or alive, the OBL brand will be a joint propaganda production. Videos and audio to maintain the legend and boost the Bush agenda are put out for discovery by SITE and the like. (One weakness in my ideas may be the incredibly botched production values of these videos, especially the laughable "still image" video of 2007.) Again, it doesn't matter who is in the videos as long as the real man or the body is in the black box. Also likely put out by the same handlers are many of the "Al Qaeda" statements, e.g. the ones by the "al-Amriki" characters and the silly English language mag. This isn't to say that Islamist extremist cells are all staged, far from it, but since these cells are autonomous and not centrally commanded and controlled, the power of constructing the legend goes to anyone who has the real OBL in hand or knows he's dead. (It's not unlike the vulnerability of Anonymous, which we are now seeing, to outsiders claiming that they are Anonymous.)

Once joint legend production begins, neither side can afford to burn the other and both derive their benefits in profit or aid, as do the other parts of the parapolitical realm involved in the AfPak operations and other windfalls derived from constructed terror. The Americans finally exercise their option to stage an OBL killing when it best suits them. The old administration loved the production to pieces and didn't contemplate ending it. The new administration decided it could do better by cashing it in. Administration figures don't all need to know what is real, they get what they want delivered and need not question it if they like it. Pakistani officials can't be seen collaborating on the strike, and need deniability on both claims, that they harbored Bin Ladin and that they forked him over. So they get to make contradictory statements, all of which will be treated as forgotten in two months.


I'm curious as to why do you think now the right time to cash in these chips? We're 18 months away from an election, and any short-term, mojo-fueled gains in the dollar or equity markets will probably dry up in a couple of weeks.
bks
 
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