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From "Marketwatch"

Paul B. Farrell

Aug. 23, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT

A ‘no-growth’ boom will follow 2012 global crash
Commentary: 20 promising sectors for post-crash investors

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — There is a global economic boom coming, but unfortunately, that boom comes only after a systemic collapse of the global economy, markets and capitalism — a collapse that may well eliminate billions of people from the planet. Shocking? Cruel? Brutal? Yes.

But folks, that is the coded message in many recent warnings from environmental economists who finally realize that nothing will wake up the public. Nothing but a catastrophic system failure. Only then, a path to reform, recovery, a new boom.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-no-g ... genumber=1

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The text is too long to post the entire thing so I provided the link.
Years ago Jeff posted comments by Maurice Strong who said the only thing that would get the world back on track would be a total collapse.
Now major investors (it seems) realize a crash is imminent, and in the true nature of Disaster Capitalism they plan on how to deal with it.
One thing they are saying is that people will have to live simpler lifestyles but that things will get much better in the long run.

Curious what others think about the article...

^^^

Shocking? Cruel? Brutal? Yes.


Planned? YES

Fed Economists – “We see a 15 year Bear Market for Stocks”
Posted by: Bruce Krasting
Post date: 08/23/2011 - 10:03

The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings. This is an old argument, but I still found it interesting.

The authors, Zheng Liu and Mark M. Spiegel have attempted to quantify the implications. Their principal conclusions:

We find that the actual P/E ratio should decline from about 15 in 2010 to about 8.3 in 2025.

The model-generated path for real stock prices implied by demographic trends is quite bearish. Real stock prices follow a downward trend until 2021.

On the brighter side, as the M/O ratio rebounds in 2025 (BK: M/O = Baby Boomers die), we should expect a strong stock price recovery. By 2030, our calculations suggest that the real value of equities will be about 20% higher than in 2010.

These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!! I loved the “good news” from the report, that stocks might be 20% higher than 2010, but we have to wait 20 years to see that improvement.

Bloomberg interviewed Spiegel about this report. There was one comment that I thought was telling:

“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover.”

This is worst kind of "Fed Speak" in my opinion. These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing, it is reasonable to assume that stock price might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy.

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http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/fe ... s%E2%80%9D


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Consumer debt forgiveness needed for recovery

Published: Monday, 22 Aug 2011 | 1:05 PM ET
Special to CNBC.com

American consumers have too much debt, not enough savings and are afraid they will lose their jobs—if they haven't lost them already.

It might be time for something that hasn't been done since the 1930s to get Americans spending again: national debt forgiveness, Stephen Roach told CNBC Monday.

A stronger dollar or higher interest rates would encourage consumption and saving, Roach said, but he prefers the more "direct approach" of coming up with "ways to forgive the excesses of mortgage, installment and revolving credit, as what was done in the 1930s, that will help consumers get through the pain of deleveraging sooner rather than later."

The nonexecutive chairman at Morgan Stanley Asia and senior fellow at Yale's Jackson Institute said the American consumer makes up 71 percent of gross domestic product, but growth is up only 0.2 percent over the last 14 months.


"The American consumer...is going nowhere," he said. It’s a Japanese style balance sheet correction. If we don’t address that, all the public policy aimed at the fiscal and monetary stimuluses are going to be pushing on a string."

Debt forgiveness may hurt lenders, Roach said, but "they’re the ones who wrote the bad loans and they're the ones who had the free ride. There's no gain without some pain and we have to decide who in society has to bear the brunt of that."

At the same time, "politicians don’t want to inflict pain on any constituency," Roach said. "We have a leadership deficit. People are unwilling to take the tough choices and say, 'This is going to be painful for a while, but we’re going to come out the other side.' "

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http://www.cnbc.com/id/44229642

A ‘no-growth’ boom will follow 2012 global crash

Well, there's an undersatement if ever there was one.

seemslikeadream wrote:^^^

Shocking? Cruel? Brutal? Yes.


Planned? YES

Yep.

I love how Buffett is taking the position of "The rich need to pay their fair share." Like that is ever going to happen, AND HE KNOWS IT.

They do like to cover all the bases, though, don't they. Gives them just a little more time, because enough people will say, "Well, that guy gets it. He understands. And he's powerful. Just give him time, and he'll make sure it happens."

LMAO.

A new world focusing less on unlimited consumption, more on personal happiness. These policies may not be fashionable in today’s world. But in the post-crash New World, economic theory will change, because growth economics no longer works and the survival of civilization demands a fundamental rethinking of economic theory. So these 20 tips will be gold mines for savvy investors, entrepreneurs and financiers.

Does that even make sense?

seemslikeadream wrote:Shocking? Cruel? Brutal? Yes.

Planned? YES

What is planned? If the article is suggesting that our current economic collapse is due to the inevitable resource depletion and climate change that follow from economic policies of unlimited growth (that's what is happening to our economy right now, right?)...then what part of what is planned?

tazmic wrote:

A new world focusing less on unlimited consumption, more on personal happiness. These policies may not be fashionable in today’s world. But in the post-crash New World, economic theory will change, because growth economics no longer works and the survival of civilization demands a fundamental rethinking of economic theory. So these 20 tips will be gold mines for savvy investors, entrepreneurs and financiers.

Does that even make sense?

seemslikeadream wrote:Shocking? Cruel? Brutal? Yes.

Planned? YES

What is planned? If the article is suggesting that our current economic collapse is due to the inevitable resource depletion and climate change that follow from economic policies of unlimited growth (that's what is happening to our economy right now, right?)...then what part of what is planned?

inevitable resource depletion and climate change that follow from economic policies of unlimited growth

Planned obsolescence or built-in obsolescence[1] in industrial design is a policy of deliberately planning or designing a product with a limited useful life, so it will become obsolete or nonfunctional after a certain period of time.[1] Planned obsolescence has potential benefits for a producer because to obtain continuing use of the product the consumer is under pressure to purchase again, whether from the same manufacturer (a replacement part or a newer model), or from a competitor which might also rely on planned obsolescence.[1]

For an industry, planned obsolescence stimulates demand by encouraging purchasers to buy sooner if they still want a functioning product. Built-in obsolescence is used in many different products. There is, however, the potential backlash of consumers who learn that the manufacturer invested money to make the product obsolete faster; such consumers might turn to a producer (if any exists) that offers a more durable alternative.[citation needed]

Planned obsolescence was first developed in the 1920s and 1930s when mass production had opened every minute aspect of the production process to exacting analysis.[citation needed]

Estimates of planned obsolescence can influence a company's decisions about product engineering. Therefore the company can use the least expensive components that satisfy product lifetime projections. Such decisions are part of a broader discipline known as value engineering.

Capitalism (planned) requires unlimited growth by definition.

Sorry SLAD, I thought you meant the collapse was part of the plan, rather than just a consequence.

tazmic wrote:

A new world focusing less on unlimited consumption, more on personal happiness. These policies may not be fashionable in today’s world. But in the post-crash New World, economic theory will change, because growth economics no longer works and the survival of civilization demands a fundamental rethinking of economic theory. So these 20 tips will be gold mines for savvy investors, entrepreneurs and financiers.

Does that even make sense?

rotflmfao PersonalHappiness™ IS a gold mine 4 savvy investors!! FACT!!1!!!!

tazmic wrote:Sorry SLAD, I thought you meant the collapse was part of the plan, rather than just a consequence.

oh I believe the collapse was part of the plan or as Catherine Austin Fitts would say "planned economic re-engineering."

tazmic wrote:Sorry SLAD, I thought you meant the collapse was part of the plan, rather than just a consequence.

The economic collapse IS part of the plan. The economic system isn't from god. The Great Depression was a planned and executed collapse, and so wll this one be.

Are we depleting resources at an ungodly rate? Of course, but there is still enough for the rich countries to function for quite a long while after the economic collapse- which is right around the corner.

WHY is the economic collapse happening now, as opposed to say two (or ten) years from now? Who knows. Just because the stars are aligned and for "them" it's the right tim. The whole thing is pretend, and the stock market could go to a million and gold could go to a billion, and it would still be pretend.

I'll go with the tinfoil version of history: there is something far, FAR bigger than what our little eyes can see, or our little minds can comprehend that is going on. And it's been going on for a very, very , very long time.

No! I think the Capitalists are finishing up claiming everything!
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11224917/1/a-huge-housing-bargain--but-not-for-you.html

NEW YORK (RealMoney) -- The largest transfer of wealth from the public to private sector is about to begin. The federal government will be bulk-selling the massive portfolio of foreclosed homes now owned by HUD, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to private investors -- vulture funds.

These homes, which are now the property of the U.S. government, the U.S. taxpayer, U.S. citizens collectively, are going to be sold to private investor conglomerates at extraordinarily large discounts to real value.

You and I will not be allowed to participate. These investors will come from the private-equity and hedge-fund community, Goldman Sachs(GS) and its derivatives, as well as foreign sovereign wealth funds that can bring a billion dollars or more to each transaction.

In the process, these investors will instantaneously become the largest improved real estate owners and landlords in the world. The U.S. taxpayer will get pennies on the dollar for these homes and then be allowed to rent them back at market rates.

On Wednesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Treasury Department issued a Request for Information (RFI) concerning the disposition of the inventory of foreclosed homes owned by the federal government.

^^^I was working in the industry while they were laying out the tech for that. Once Bulk REO hit, everyone doing Short Sales and Foreclosures (with a brain, which was a small minority) realized there was no future for anyone without nine figure capitalization.

^^^^^^
HoLY F***!!!!!

Now, we're FINALLY seeing the fruition of their long-laid plans for the global international elites to make us all renters, as America gets sold for a pittance to absentee landlords.

I seem to recall this prospect being discussed in hushed-tones some 10 or more years ago, I have long-since forgotton abouty it until seeing this up-close in real-time, Now.

For Fux sakes, in an equitably just, decent world, prospective home-owners, especially recently-foreclosed homeowners and esp. esp. FIRST-TIME homeowners, would get first-dibs on these suddenly-vacant homes -- with liberal low-cost loans on same terms as any FED-subsidized institutional investor -- instead of selling these EXCLUSIVELY to mega-conglomerate entities.

What a Goddamn CROCK.

DAMN, this is so topsy-turvey screwed-up rotton.

Grrrrr ...

Planned equity 'conversion'.

The more I dwell on this the angrier I'll get, I need to change the subject and chill before I blow a gasket ...

>clik<

RobinDaHood wrote:No! I think the Capitalists are finishing up claiming everything!
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11224917/1/a-huge-housing-bargain--but-not-for-you.html

NEW YORK (RealMoney) -- The largest transfer of wealth from the public to private sector is about to begin. The federal government will be bulk-selling the massive portfolio of foreclosed homes now owned by HUD, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to private investors -- vulture funds.

These homes, which are now the property of the U.S. government, the U.S. taxpayer, U.S. citizens collectively, are going to be sold to private investor conglomerates at extraordinarily large discounts to real value.

You and I will not be allowed to participate. These investors will come from the private-equity and hedge-fund community, Goldman Sachs(GS) and its derivatives, as well as foreign sovereign wealth funds that can bring a billion dollars or more to each transaction.

In the process, these investors will instantaneously become the largest improved real estate owners and landlords in the world. The U.S. taxpayer will get pennies on the dollar for these homes and then be allowed to rent them back at market rates.

On Wednesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Treasury Department issued a Request for Information (RFI) concerning the disposition of the inventory of foreclosed homes owned by the federal government.

Sounds like a good ol' fashioned land grab. No wonder the banks were so happy to loan so much money, to so many people they knew could never repay the debt.