rigorousintuition.ca

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 10:35 am**

Less than two hours, I think, before the polls close. The Telegraph is live blogging it here.

My prediction is a result similar to the last: New Democracy wins, but with a narrower margin over Syriza. (And Golden Dawn falls bellow the three percent threshold for representation in parliament.)

Some representative ads for New Democracy and Syriza:

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:45 am**

Jeff wrote:My prediction is a result similar to the last: New Democracy wins, but with a narrower margin over Syriza.

Twenty minutes now. I think New Democracy will win by a somewhat larger margin than last time. Tsipras is personally popular, and seems to be campaigning more on that than on his party's positions. Because the rules in a Greek runoff require the voter to mark for the party rather than for the candidate (why, I do not know) I'm expecting a great many spoiled ballots with Tsipiras' name checked when the party name should have been checked instead.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:01 pm**

Former European Central Bank executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi poses during a portrait session in the garden at his home in Rome June 15, 2012. An orderly Greek exit from the euro zone is impossible and its departure would have devastating consequences, Smaghi said on the eve of a Greek election that could determine whether it remains part of the single currency. Picture taken June 15, 2012.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:25 pm**

Sepka wrote:
Jeff wrote:My prediction is a result similar to the last: New Democracy wins, but with a narrower margin over Syriza.

Twenty minutes now. I think New Democracy will win by a somewhat larger margin than last time. Tsipras is personally popular, and seems to be campaigning more on that than on his party's positions. Because the rules in a Greek runoff require the voter to mark for the party rather than for the candidate (why, I do not know) I'm expecting a great many spoiled ballots with Tsipiras' name checked when the party name should have been checked instead.

Yes, because if what you are describing were even possible, Greeks are total morons who have never voted in an election before and don't know their own rules.

You know nothing about Greece and are pulling an impossible fantasy scenario out of your ass.

In a Greek election, the voter is given a small stack of papers, one for each party. You choose one, put it in an envelope, deposit the envelope in the box. The country has very high voter participation and everyone understands how this works. Practically the only spoiled ballots are intentionally spoiled as a protest vote against the entire election.

This is also 100 percent out-of-your-ass reporting displaying total ignorance about Greece: "Tsipras is personally popular, and seems to be campaigning more on that than on his party's positions."

Now kindly die.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:33 pm**

JackRiddler wrote:Now kindly die.

That was a bit strong.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:36 pm**

JackRiddler wrote:The country has very high voter participation and everyone understands how this works.

In a few more hours, we'll find out. I'm betting on rather many accidentally spoiled ballots from voters who support Tspiras personally, but don't really understand how a runoff works. We'll see.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:59 pm**

Sepka wrote:
JackRiddler wrote:The country has very high voter participation and everyone understands how this works.

In a few more hours, we'll find out. I'm betting on rather many accidentally spoiled ballots from voters who support Tspiras personally, but don't really understand how a runoff works. We'll see.

It's not a runoff.

I'd love to bet against your scenario of super-stupid Greeks doing something that is actually impossible for whatever you're worth, plus all of your future income, forever. Please wire the 19 drachmas to my account.

DrVolin wrote:
JackRiddler wrote:Now kindly die.

That was a bit strong.

Only a bit.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:09 pm**

Motherfucker, I shouldn't have turned on the TV. They have ND by a half-percent and the Nazis still at 7. Screw CIA-CNN exit polls, I'm going to the End Stop and Frisk march in the City and getting actual results later tonight from Greek sites.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:15 pm**

Telegraph reports first exit poll indicates ND winning between 27.5% to 30.5%, Syriza 27% to 30%. Don't know how this is being tabulated, but a final exit poll is still expected, including a final fifth of voters, before the final results.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:48 pm**

Telegraph:

Greek state TV estimates that on those exit numbers New Democracy and Pasok could form a coalition. The 300 seats would be distributed thus:

New Democracy 127 (including the bonus 50 for winning), Syriza 72, Pasok 32, Independent Greeks 21, Golden Dawn 19, Democratic Left 16, Communist Party of Greece 13.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 2:02 pm**

Jeff wrote:Telegraph reports first exit poll indicates ND winning between 27.5% to 30.5%, Syriza 27% to 30%. Don't know how this is being tabulated, but a final exit poll is still expected, including a final fifth of voters, before the final results.

In other words, nothing is known, let's have another hour of hope! But I'm all cleaned up now and off to the aforementioned march:

http://silentmarchnyc.org/

(How the hell am I going to keep quiet?)

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 2:12 pm**

Greek TV network NET is calling for about 159 combined seats between New Democracy and PASOK.

Official results (16% of stations): ND 31.1%, Syriza 25.3%, PASOK 13.6%, IndGreeks 7.2%, GoldenDawn 6.8%, DemLeft 5.9%, KKE 4.3%

Merkel can leave for Mexico now.

The markets will like it

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 3:05 pm**

Latest from BBC:

Breaking News

Official projection of result: New Democracy - 29.5%, Syriza - 27.1%. That is from the Greek interior ministry, based on 18% of votes counted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18463543

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 7:45 pm**

Greek News headline:

Fear Wins Over Rage

Sorry, also: stupidity. We've got our own Republicans, who can't figure out which of the political parties is most responsible for the very ills that ail them, but pull for their team against the people they don't like.

.

Posted: **Sun Jun 17, 2012 8:05 pm**

On the other hand, Greece at least will have an authentic party of opposition sitting across from the government. I can only too well imagine how discouraging it is when both major parties sign off on the same neoliberal austerity. PASOK earned its place in the dustbin and I hope it stays there. (Though naturally it'll help the right fill out the ranks in the forthcoming government of "national salvation.")

rigorousintuition.ca

Greek election thread (June 17)

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Conservatives likely to win

Re: Greek election thread (June 17)

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Re: Greek election thread (June 17)