Am I wrong about AIG?

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Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Sep 11, 2012 1:50 pm

Today's round of news on the "profit" generated by AIG offloading has me baffled. I'd like to think I've got a grip on the naked cynicism at work here, but I'm also keenly aware my track record for Being Wrong is, quantitatively, my greatest life achievement thus far.

1) How can anything involved with AIG be considered "profitable" when Maiden Lane II & III are still toxic disaster zones?

2) Is it just me, or is claiming "Taxpayers Profit from AIG" just utter horseshit? Or will US Treasury be cutting checks in 2013?

3) Why does Andrew Ross Sorkin cheerfully lay out the fraud and fakery behind something like the Facebook IPO, yet when the same players are selling off shares of AIG, he's treating it like a clear-cut free-market triumph that only the most partisan Tea Party loyalist could refuse to see? link in question

4) Am I mistaken, or are most of the counterparties "buying" this AIG stock just other zombie banks expanding their market cap entirely with funds they were given by US taxpayers in the first place? If so, isn't than Enron type "profits" ?
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Sep 11, 2012 1:53 pm

Via: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/09/11/ ... g-success/

What is helping the success of the issue is that AIG is buying roughly $5 billion in shares based on 153.8 million shares at the offering price. This also takes the U.S. Treasury down to a minority shareholder. The Treasury owns approximately 53.4% of AIG's common stock outstanding prior to the sale, and it will own approximately 21.5% after the offering. If the overallotment is exercised in full, then the Treasury will own only about 15.9%.

As you would expect in an offering of this size, the underwriting group is huge. Citigroup, Deutsche Bank Securities, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Securities are the joint global coordinators for the offering. BofA Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital Markets, UBS Securities, Wells Fargo Securities and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) are the joint book-runners for the offering.
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:51 pm

Via: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/busin ... wanted=all

A consumer complaint is ricocheting around the world: low interest rates are eating away at savings.

...

The fact that interest yields are so low in so many parts of the world is no coincidence. Rates are determined not only by markets, but also by government policy. And right now many governments say they have good reason to keep their own borrowing costs as low as they possibly can. Just last week, the government’s report on job growth in the United States showed continued weakness, and an international forecasting group warned that the European economic powerhouse, Germany, will fall into recession later this year.

Though bad for people trying to live off their savings, low interest rates happen to be quite good for anyone borrowing money, like governments themselves. Over time, interest rates below the inflation rate allow governments to refinance, erode or liquidate their debt, making it easier to live within their budgets without having to resort to more unpalatable spending cuts or tax increases.

Along with keeping rates low, governments are using a variety of tactics to encourage captive audiences, like pension funds and banks, to buy their debt. Consumers, in other words, are subtly subsidizing governments without even knowing it. Economists have compared this phenomenon to a hidden tax on people’s wealth.

“If you ask a central banker is that what you’re doing, and why you’re doing it, they’ll say ‘No, we’re just trying to get the economy going by making it easier for the private sector to borrow,’ ” said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse. “But I have a syllogism for you: The government makes the rules. The government needs the money. So why should it surprise if the rules encourage you to lend the government money?”

This is not the first time governments have benefited by depressing interest rates, something economists refer to by the ominous name of “financial repression.”
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:59 pm

According to propublica, they didn't so much as break even yet, unless I'm mis-understanding:

http://projects.propublica.org/bailout/entities/8-aig
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:05 pm

Well, Mr. WRex, your Pro Publica link relates:

"On January 11, 2011, AIG, the Treasury and Federal Reserve executed a plan to extricate AIG from government support. AIG paid off the Fed's loans. To extricate the Fed from its investment in two AIG subsidiaries, the plan called for AIG to draw down approximately $20 billion more from the Treasury (for a total investment of $68 billion). AIG used that money to buy the stakes in the subsidiaries, which it then immediately transferred to Treasury. The plan also called for the Treasury to convert its other investments in AIG into AIG common stock - bringing its holdings to 92.1 percent of the company. To recoup the $68 billion, the plan called for Treasury to sell off its stake in the AIG subsidiaries and its AIG common stock over time. The "Events" notes to the left show Treasury's remaining equity stake in AIG as it sells off those shares. The Federal Reserve ultimately realized a profit of about $17.7 billion from its role in AIG's bailout."

But I do not believe a $17.7B profit for the Federal Reserve is necessarily a profit to our taxpayers. (I'm rather ignorant about high finance and unsure of the actual nature of the Fed. Reserve/Treasury's relationship)

Worth noting, from the above "a plan" link:

"Citigroup, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Goldman, Sachs & Co., and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC have been retained as joint global coordinators. BofA Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital Inc., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, RBC Capital Markets, LLC, UBS Securities LLC, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) have been retained as joint bookrunners for the offering. Greenhill & Co. continues to serve as Treasury’s financial agent with respect to the management and disposition of Treasury’s investment in AIG."

However, Citi's gonna make a killing on Abu Dhabi's deal:

Thursday, Sep 6, 2012 1:45 PM UTC

Did Citigroup defraud billions from Abu Dhabi?
The U.S. ally learns firsthand how Wall Street does business. An investigative report into the company's dealings

By Pam Martens, Alternet

Wikileaks, the U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi sent a communication to the U.S. Secretary of State and U.S. Treasury on December 22, 2009, alerting them to the fact that the investment arm of a U.S. ally, Abu Dhabi, believed it had been defrauded of $4 billion by Citigroup (Wall Street’s serial miscreant and recent ward of the taxpayer). The cable relayed that William Brown, legal advisor to the Abu Dhabi investment arm, “unequivocally stated that Citi ‘lied’ and must be held accountable.”

Three years later, Abu Dhabi has likely figured out that in the U.S., gangsters have guns but banksters are far more dangerous – they have ivy league educated lawyers. One group of lawyers writes the prospectuses that defraud investors; another group writes the contracts that bar these cases from ever seeing sunshine in a public courtroom; and the third group provides skillful white color criminal defense, including a speed dial to their pals in Washington, ensuring that justice will be as elusive as a Wall Street CEO clad in orange.

A three month search of records, that have not yet been sealed or redacted, show that Abu Dhabi landed in the same plundered status as public pension funds and small time investors in Citigroup, while a very special Group of Six reaped a windfall.

It all started with a handshake from a former U.S. Treasury Secretary. On Monday, November 26, 2007, four days after Thanksgiving, Robert Rubin was standing in one of the most spectacular waterfront buildings in the Middle East – the headquarters of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. With two finger-like wings, the gleaming building showcases an atrium soaring 40 stories into the sky.

Rubin, a former Co-Chairman of Goldman Sachs, whose lavish pay at Citigroup since leaving Treasury in 1999 had reached $120 million for eight years of non-management work, had more than architecture on his mind that day. He had reluctantly agreed to serve as interim Chairman of Citigroup after the company had earlier that month forced out its Chairman and CEO, Chuck Prince, following spectacular losses and a sinking share price. Rubin was on a critical mission to secure a $7.5 billion lifeline for Citigroup.

The deal had been reviewed the prior week by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s Strategic Investments Team, headed by Sanjeev Doshi, a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania. Due to fog, the Abu Dhabi team could not fly to New York on November 20, and opted instead for a video conference to quiz the heads of Citigroup’s businesses on November 21. Robert Rubin was now on hand to shake hands with the Managing Director of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Sheikh Ahmed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and close the deal.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, universally known as ADIA, is a sovereign wealth fund that invests the kingdom’s surplus cash. It came through on its end, wiring $7.5 billion into a Citigroup bank account a few days later.

Citigroup is a publicly traded company, whose shares in 2007 were held in the largest public pension funds in America and in mutual funds held in rank and file employees’ 401(k) plans across the country. This $7.5 billion investment from ADIA was going to convert in a little over two years into approximately 235 million publicly traded common shares of Citigroup stock, diluting all other shareholders. Despite these facts which called for maximum transparency, Citigroup entered into multiple secret contracts involving this investment, including a November 24, 2007 Confidentiality Agreement and a November 26, 2007 Investment Agreement with ADIA.

All of the details of those secret agreements have not come to light, but what has emerged is that a core part of the agreements involved the fact that ADIA, like Citigroup’s own workers, would have no access to the public courts of the United States in the event of a dispute. All claims, including claims of securities fraud, would be forced into an arbitration system where Wall Street lawyers, whose firms had client relationships with Citigroup, would end up serving as judge and jury. An additional, mind-numbing requirement, was that ADIA would not be allowed to hedge its $7.5 billion investment, despite the fact that Citigroup had just reported massive losses, lost its Chairman and CEO, and was under regulatory scrutiny for off-balance sheet debt held in the Cayman Islands in Structured Investment Vehicles.

According to the portion of ADIA’s documents that are public in Federal Court, ADIA says it was induced into investing the $7.5 billion through representations by Citigroup that “it would not bring certain Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) onto its balance sheet, or raise significant additional capital after ADIA’s investment…Citigroup then promptly did exactly the opposite of what it had said. On December 13, merely ten days after obtaining ADIA’s critical investment, Citigroup announced that it would bring the SIVs onto its balance sheet. Within the next month, Citigroup wrote off $18.1 billion in subprime losses, and raised a further $20 billion in capital…All of these actions flatly contradicted what Citigroup had just told ADIA, diluted ADIA’s investment in Citigroup, drove down Citigroup’s stock price, and harmed ADIA.”

When the $7.5 billion investment was announced on November 26, 2007, business media was given the bare bone details by Citigroup, making it sound like a very simple deal. Citigroup’s press release explained where the $7.5 billion was going this way: “Each Equity Unit is mandatorily convertible into Citi shares at prices ranging from $31.83 to $37.24 per share. The Equity Units convert to Citi common shares on dates ranging from March 15, 2010, to September 15, 2011, subject to adjustment. Each Equity Unit will pay a fixed annual payment rate of 11%, payable quarterly.”

In reality, the deal was a Byzantine entanglement that took 38,000 words in an SEC filing and involved a forward purchase contract, four trusts held by the Bank of New York, junior debt, the ability to suspend the 11 percent interest payments, and multiple secret side contracts that now reside under seal in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

On January 15, 2008, less than two months after allegedly promising ADIA it would not raise additional capital, Citigroup announced it had arranged a $12.5 billion investment of convertible preferred securities that could convert into common stock. The deal included two billionaire investors. The reason this would outrage ADIA (and all other shareholders) is that a company’s earnings are spread over a given amount of common shares. Those earnings impact the share price as well as whether there will be funds to pay or increase dividends; the more shares outstanding, the more dilution of earnings to existing shareholders.

Matt Miller and Vipal Monga, writing for The Deal, reported the breakdown of that $12.5 billion investment as follows: Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) led with $6.88 billion; the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) kicked in $3 billion; Capital Group of Companies, owner of the popular American Funds, invested $1.75 billion; Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz al Saud, who had previously bailed out Citibank (predecessor to Citigroup) in the early 90s, added $450 million; the New Jersey Division of Investment put in $400 million; and former Citigroup chief Sandy Weill tossed in $20 million.

Both Prince Alwaleed and Sandy Weill are billionaires; Weill having made his fortune receiving obscene pay at Citigroup as its Chairman and CEO. In just one year, 2000, Weill cashed in $196.2 million in stock options and received a bonus of $18.4 million. His total take in just a five year period: $785 million. Weill is also the man most responsible for the repeal of the depression era Glass-Steagall Act, forcing Congress to bulldoze the legislation by illegally merging his Travelers Group with Citicorp in 1998, a combination of insurance, stock brokerage and insured deposit banking not allowed at the time under either Glass-Steagall or the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956. As Treasury Secretary, Rubin helped muscle through the repeal of Glass-Steagall and then took his high paid post at Citigroup shortly thereafter.

Weill stepped down as CEO in 2003 and as Chairman in 2006. But he continued to serve as an Advisor to Citigroup. According to a Fortune magazine interview, Weill was meeting with Prince Alwaleed in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in mid November 2007, just weeks before ADIA signed its deal. Whether Weill was attempting to raise additional capital is unknown. What is known is that Weill got in, for a very tiny stake, on what turned out to be the investment coup of the decade – a coup that left small investors, along with ADIA, suffering massive losses.

After the January 15, 2008 investment of $12.5 billion by the Group of Six, things got worse at Citigroup, with losses spiraling out of control. On October 28, 2008, the U.S. government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) extended capital assistance to 9 banks, with Citigroup receiving $25 billion.

But by the week of November 17, Citigroup was in full blown meltdown, with its stock losing 60 percent in five trading sessions. The stock closed the week at $3.77. The company’s market value had gone from $250 billion in 2006 to $20.5 billion by the close on Friday, November 21, 2008. That was $4.5 billion less than the U.S. government had invested less than a month before. At that point, the U.S. government could have bought the entire firm for $20.5 billion or at the very least received a majority stake, kicked out the derelict management, and ensured taxpayers safe passage on Wall Street’s Titanic.

Instead, according to the official report from the Special Inspector General for TARP, here’s what happened next. On the morning of Thursday, November 20, 2008, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and New York Fed President Timothy Geithner held a conference call with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, and Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan (a former bank lobbyist) to discuss Citigroup.

The next day, Friday, November 21, 2008, the New York Fed convened a conference call with Citigroup officials. During this conversation, the Fed reported that it became clear that liquidity pressures had reached crisis proportions (think Lehman Brothers). According to the report, the New York Fed “requested that Citigroup submit a proposal for additional Government assistance, without specifying the details of what Citigroup should include in the proposal.”

Late on Sunday evening, November 23, 2008, after four days of what the Fed and Treasury refer to as “Citi Weekend,” the monster funding package was announced. The government was going to guarantee a toxic asset pool at Citigroup up to $306 billion (later reduced to $301 billion). In addition, the government would provide another lump sum of $20 billion in capital. According to the Special Inspector General of TARP, he could find no “documentation of the decision-making process behind the $20 billion capital injection.”

In total, including TARP and other government lending programs, Citigroup received $45 billion in capital, $301 billion in asset guarantees, and $2.513 trillion in loans from the Federal Reserve between December 1, 2007 through July 21, 2010, according to the Government Accountability Office.

The stunner came on March 18, 2009. Citigroup announced that the Group of Six was going to be allowed to exchange their convertible preferred stock for 3.846 billion shares of common stock, massively diluting the value of ADIA’s shares and all other common shareholders. ADIA’s investment of $7.5 billion was 60 percent of the $12.5 billion the Group of Six had put up, but theGroup of Six was receiving 16 times more shares than ADIA.

It had the appearance of a shove-down. Not only were common shareholders taking a financial beating, but as Citigroup quietly noted in its SEC filing, they were not even being allowed to vote on the exchange offer. Citigroup applied for and received a waiver on the voting action from the New York Stock Exchange.

The math on this is as follows: When the deal with the Group of Six was announced on January 15, 2008, Citigroup closed the trading day at $26.94. When the new deal with the Group of Six was announced on March 18, 2009, the stock closed at $3.08 – a decline of 88.6 percent from January 15, 2008. But this Group of Six, unlike public pension funds, 401(k) accounts, IRAs, long-term small shareholders, did not take an 88.6 percent haircut. They were exchanged at only 5 percent less than their original investment. Here’s the math: 3.846 billion shares at $3.08 = $11,845,680,000 versus original investment of $12.5 billion = 5.2 percent.

To put the trade in even clearer perspective, there is one document that slipped through the seal-o-matic machine. Sandy Weill has a family trust and that’s the account in which he made the January 2008 deal. Because it’s a nonprofit, it has to file an IRS 990 tax return. That document is publicly available. Here’s how Weill made out on the deal: he invested $21,226,848. Between September 2009 through December 1, 2009, he sold out his position for a profit of $6,226,847. That’s a 29 percent profit in less than two years.

Today, Citigroup might look like it has recovered to a price in the double digits. Don’t be fooled. Last year, the company did a 1 for 10 reverse stock split. For every 10 shares that an investor previously owned, they now had just one. That allowed the stock price to increase by 10 to 1, making it appear to the unwary as if the company had made significant progress. In reality, long-term shareholders have lost over 90 percent of their value in Citigroup since 2007.

Requests to the U.S. Treasury office for an explanation as to why this lopsided deal was allowed to take place while the government was a major owner, were met with silence, despite being initially promised a response.

When Abu Dhabi was making its deliberations as to whether or not to invest in Citigroup, the SEC knew that Citigroup was not coming clean on its dangerous exposures to subprime debt. Kevin Vaughn, an SEC branch chief, had written to Citigroup on October 23, 2007 to put the firm on notice: “We note your response to our prior comment 2 in our letter dated July 3, 2007 in which you state that you did not disclose the amount of mortgage backed securities and residual interests collateralized by non-prime mortgages held by U.S. Consumer due to immateriality. From your disclosures in your Forms 8-K filed on October 15, 2007 and October 1, 2007, it appears that you do have a material exposure to non-prime instruments as these instruments caused you to record a $1.56 billion loss in the third quarter.”

Vaughn was grilling the firm about many other issues with its balance sheet but it is impossible to know exactly how much misstating was going on at Citigroup because the SEC has adopted the position that Citigroup can request, and receive, redaction of the material that it does not want to make public. Pages 23 through 36 of this document have been totally redacted – with the words “Confidential Treatment Requested by Citigroup,” – while much of the rest of the information requested by Vaughn earlier in the document is also redacted.

Situations such as this explain why the average investor has no confidence in Wall Street. Citigroup is a publicly traded company. It was engaging in fraudulent reporting. But we, the investing public, can’t know the details because Citigroup doesn’t want us to and its regulator, the SEC, doesn’t have a problem with that.

The balance sheet misstatements led to more redactions and sealed documents when a whistleblower from inside the SEC wrote an anonymous letter to the Inspector General of the SEC saying that the Enforcement Director, Robert Khuzami, backed off fraud charges against Citigroup executives because he got calls from his former lawyer pals who had been hired by Citigroup. The Inspector General hung out the dirty linen but did not make a finding of wrongdoing on the part of Khuzami.

The SEC settled the case of misreporting for a pittance compared to other Wall Street fines despite a finding that Citigroup was telling the public it had $13 billion in subprime exposure when it actually had in excess of $50 billion.

Tomorrow, in Part II, we’ll look at the kangaroo court Abu Dhabi Investment Authority entered in the U.S. in May 2011– a country that dares to boast “Equal Justice Under Law” on the front entrance to its highest court. Instead of a randomly appointed judge and a jury of one’s peers that have been voir dired to weed out conflicts of interest, ADIA’s claims were tried in a secret arbitration proceeding where two members of the three-member arbitration panel worked for law firms where Citigroup was a client. One arbitrator had even previously served as counsel to Citigroup.

Adding to those seemingly insurmountable headwinds, Sheikh Ahmed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Managing Director of ADIA, would not be able to give first hand testimony to the tribunal as to what Robert Rubin and other Citigroup executives had promised him. In the same month, March 2010, that ADIA was to make its first payment to buy Citigroup common stock at a price almost 10 times where it was trading, the Sheikh crashed to his death in a glider and wasn’t found for four days.

http://www.salon.com/2012/09/06/did_citigroup_defraud_billions_from_abu_dhabi/

For perspective, see this nearly 3 year old WSJ article:

December 3, 2009, 12:28 p.m. ET
Abu Dhabi's Citigroup Investment Turns Costly

By MARSHALL ECKBLAD

NEW YORK—Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is set to pay its first bill of misery to Citigroup Inc.

Because of an investment deal struck two years ago, early in the financial crisis, the United Arab Emirates' sovereign fund will soon start purchasing $7.5 billion in Citigroup shares at $31.83 apiece, even though the New York bank's stock closed at $4.10.

The value of Abu Dhabi's investment will ultimately be shaped by the price of Citigroup's stock come March. But it seems very likely that "one of the world's...most sophisticated equity investors," as Citi crowed of Abu Dhabi when it inked the complex deal, will soon overpay for the stock of a bank that has fallen into the arms of the U.S. government.

The news is the latest setback for the United Arab Emirates. Last week, Dubai World, a government-owned company, sought a standstill on debt payments, a move that shocked world markets.

The terms of the Citigroup deal looked lucrative for Abu Dhabi back in November 2007, when it raced to Citi's rescue as the New York bank crumbled under soaring investment losses tied to the depressed U.S. mortgage and housing markets. Abu Dhabi wrote a check for $7.5 billion in exchange for an 11% annual dividend.

The bad news for Abu Dhabi is it only demanded such dividend payments for a little more than two years—until March 15, 2010. Afterwards, Abu Dhabi would in essence exchange its original investment in four installments for Citigroup common stock, which was then worth nearly $31.

To pull off that exchange, Citigroup on Wednesday announced a coming public bond offer that will pay a much smaller yield of slightly more than 6%. The proceeds will go to Abu Dhabi, which is required to use the cash in March for its expensive purchase of Citigroup stock.

Abu Dhabi, by agreeing ahead of time to exchange cash for stock at a price of $31.83, figured to make money under the assumption that Citigroup's shares would rise modestly over more than 27 months. "This investment reflects our confidence in Citi's potential to build shareholder value," Sheikh Ahmed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi's managing director, said at the time.

But now it is Citi, not Abu Dhabi, that is seeing prospects for a winning deal. If Citi's stock price holds steady through March, the beleaguered New York bank will basically be able to raise new capital by selling stock at more than seven times its market price. The deal will also boost Citi's Tier 1 common equity and tangible common equity by $1.875 billion, according to Wednesday's statement.

As harsh as the deal's terms now seem for Abu Dhabi, they perhaps could have been worse. In early 2008, after Citigroup raised $12.5 billion, it reduced Abu Dhabi's conversion price to $31.83.

If the current deal holds, as expected, it will mark a rare win for Citigroup, which has been mauled by the financial crisis. The bank turned to the Treasury twice for infusions of capital, which ultimately left the U.S. government owning 34% of the bank. For a time in March, its stock traded below $1 a share.
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:25 pm

If the Fed can claim a profit of $17b when there's still $5b left to unwind, I think that just about says it all, in terms of their relationship with the American taxpayer.

That aside, reading over some Seeking Alpha indicates I was wrong about a lot -- I'll pick it apart later, though, Christ knows I have something resembling a life to attend to.
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:44 pm

Via: http://seekingalpha.com/article/540181- ... job-on-aig

An April piece, but a lot of good meat in terms of my OP.

Let’s address the “stealth bailout” gibberish. Treasury has made several statements on the tax situation including the following not mentioned above:

gov verbiage wrote:The Treasury earlier this month said the tax provision “originally was intended to prevent trafficking in tax losses” by private companies, and didn’t apply to companies in which the government ended up owning a majority stake as a result of a bailout. At one point, the Treasury owned more than 90% of AIG; it has since fallen to about 70% and the government plans to sell the rest of its stake over time to recoup roughly $37 billion in federal aid.

“It would have been counterproductive–and perhaps irresponsible–to undermine the stability of those same institutions, at the height of the financial crisis, by imposing a tax code provision that was never intended to apply in this context,” the Treasury said. The federal government “is not a taxpayer and has no interest in sheltering taxable income."


What is lost on Warren, Farzad et all is the concept of ownership. A stock certificate is a share of ownership in a company. When Treasury made the ruling in 2009, it in all reality owned AIG. In essence, what these folks are saying is that they wanted (and continue to want) AIG and by its near complete ownership stake the US Treasury, to then (and now) pay taxes to itself. To what point? To delay the exit from AIG longer? To further weaken the business and perhaps in the end force a loss on taxpayers? Think about the logic. They want AIG, now 70% owned by Treasury, to pay around $1B in taxes (estimating 30% of the approximately $3.7B profit excluding tax benefit). So then those funds come out of the profits and available cash that is being used to pay back the Treasury so they can then be paid to Treasury in the form of taxes. Brilliant!

...

The real joke of it is that AIG is using the money they are “saving” from not paying taxes to the US government, to buy shares from and to pay back….the US government. The worst part is everyone here knows that. Warren is just playing politics in her run for office; sad but true.


Re: Barofsky ==>

Let’s also not forget Barofsky was saying in ’10 that taxpayers were likely to lose $40B on the AIG bailout. Maybe the longer we can confuse the issue of the actual gain/loss the government will see the less wrong he will have looked in the past? I don’t know...

What I find even more odd is no one here is talking about the ML portfolios that the Fed is liquidating at a very healthy profit. William Dudley said just regarding the sale of part of ML III, “I am pleased with the level of interest and the results of this process, especially with the strength of the winning bid, which represents good value for the public and significantly exceeds the original price ML III paid for these assets…


Then again, bear in mind the bigger picture that's driving the interest behind toxic shit like Maiden Lane: nobody in equity is making any money, and that's the real "New Normal" -- the entire free market system shitting a brick at once.

Golem XVI hit on this just last week:
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/09/who-t ... -out-loud/

This morning a German government bond auction for €5 billion in 10 year bonds, failed. In normal times that would be pretty epic. They priced up their bonds, took them to market and no one was interested. They offered €5 billion’s worth and got bidders for only €3.61 billion. The German Government had to buy the rest.

So it seems that ‘super safe in times of volatility’ is just not the logic being used. The real logic is, I think, that low interest rates held down for so long now, to ‘save’ the banks from a swift death by insolvency, are instead killing them slowly, and everybody else with them. It’s not volatility that is killing the markets it’s not getting any return. So the only answer is to find something risky and buy it.


As always, Sorkin embraces cognitivie dissonance -- he gets it, just very selectively -- here he is laying out the same case as Golem:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/06/ ... computers/

Let’s stop with the excuses.

You’ve no doubt been reading a lot about a “crisis of confidence” on Wall Street in recent days after software problems at a big trading firm sent the stock market, briefly, into a tizzy.

Everyone is hyperventilating at the errant trades at the Knight Capital Group — suggesting, in the words of Arthur Levitt, that these malfunctions “have scared the hell out of investors.” The problems at the firm were immediately lumped together with Facebook’s glitch-filled initial public offering, the flash crash of 2010 and the rescinded public offering of BATS Global Markets, among others.

...

Let me offer a more straightforward explanation of why investors have left the stock market: it has been a losing proposition. An entire generation of investors hasn’t made a buck.

“The cult of equity is dying,” Bill Gross, the founder of Pimco, wrote in his monthly letter last week.


Here's a link to that Bill Gross letter, btw: http://pimco.com/EN/insights/pages/cult-figures.aspx
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:49 pm

I have to say, the scope of what Golem is describing with pension/institutional investors being squeezed out of equity -- with no viable alternatives whatsoever -- is probably the scariest economic nightmare vista I've seen since I initially grokked derivatives.

Derivatives, at least, could explode. This "New Normal" of total ownership, HFT dominance of everything, and endless fiat inflation cycles...it's sustainable. In the worst way.

This shit is exactly why I need to stick to history books and rap.
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby hanshan » Tue Sep 11, 2012 8:06 pm

...

Wombaticus Rex wrote:If the Fed can claim a profit of $17b when there's still $5b left to unwind, I think that just about says it all, in terms of their relationship with the American taxpayer.

That aside, reading over some Seeking Alpha indicates I was wrong about a lot -- I'll pick it apart later, though, Christ knows I have something resembling a life to attend to.


thanks for the info Rex & heh on the bold


...
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby StarmanSkye » Tue Sep 11, 2012 11:34 pm

I saw a classic gypsy 3-card monte set-up in a truck-stop once, complete with table, barker, fandango cup-player, 2 or 3 planted shills to give the action some dramatic 'can't lose!' huckster realism, and a half-dozen truckers milling around with everything from jaded scorn, amazement, authentic curiousity, credulity, surprise, amusement, skeptical optimism and mild irritation on their faces. I thought it funnier than anything else, like someone is really going to get sucked into this thinking they're gonna come out $20 or $50 ahead?

That's what this insider's game by the leading big-stakes Wall Street financial players looks like to me. Except it's less of an amusing and unexpected spectacle, and gives me a headache -- partly because of the serious-sounding jargon but mostly because it pisses me off, I know the public is who's gonna get it in wallet AND neck here.
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby Hammer of Los » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:31 am

...

Hello Starman.

Planet rock right now my fave song.

Well, one of them.

Pleased to meet you all.

Hey Starman, I reckon it's past time some minds were blown, don't you?

Keep up the good work!

The house of cards is wobbling.

The Iron Fist of Karma begins to clench.

Or is it the Dragon's breath?

Keep on huffin' and puffin'.

Over and out.

...
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby JackRiddler » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:31 am

I don't have time to examine these numbers closely, but right after AIG went under, the NY Fed under Geithner oversaw the payment of $130 billion in credit-default swap obligations to the big banks that AIG would have otherwise fully defaulted on. Geithner insisted on paying off 100 cents to the dollar, even when a couple of the banks wanted to negotiate slightly lower amounts and, of course, there was no obligation whatsoever for the government to cover AIG's previously undisclosed private contracts. Societe Generale and Goldman Sachs each got $13 billion. This did not involve acquisition of any assets, toxic or otherwise. So that money is gone, it can never produce any return for the public. Any accounting of the AIG costs that doesn't start with that is a lie. The Fed and government could have done anything they liked, but accepted the TBTF cover story as gospel. (And what if the banks had been allowed to fail? Bailout funds would have had a rational purpose, salvaging states and solvent institutions to restart after the disaster with the biggest parasites eliminated.) The fake numbers being presented as profit now are peanuts by comparison. When you're busy, "cynicism" - which here is merely the assumption that known liars who have lied many times are lying again - is an acceptable heuristic.
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby JackRiddler » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:43 am

Wombaticus Rex wrote:3) Why does Andrew Ross Sorkin cheerfully lay out the fraud and fakery behind something like the Facebook IPO, yet when the same players are selling off shares of AIG, he's treating it like a clear-cut free-market triumph that only the most partisan Tea Party loyalist could refuse to see? link in question


Because Facebook's actual significance is inversely proportionate to its hype, and thus it's an easy call for mockery so that analysts can show how smart they are without risking anything? The banksters are his sources, he needs them. Also, he's a boring whore.
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby barracuda » Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:12 pm

Wombaticus Rex wrote:Today's round of news on the "profit" generated by AIG offloading has me baffled. I'd like to think I've got a grip on the naked cynicism at work here, but I'm also keenly aware my track record for Being Wrong is, quantitatively, my greatest life achievement thus far.

1) How can anything involved with AIG be considered "profitable" when Maiden Lane II & III are still toxic disaster zones?

2) Is it just me, or is claiming "Taxpayers Profit from AIG" just utter horseshit? Or will US Treasury be cutting checks in 2013?

3) Why does Andrew Ross Sorkin cheerfully lay out the fraud and fakery behind something like the Facebook IPO, yet when the same players are selling off shares of AIG, he's treating it like a clear-cut free-market triumph that only the most partisan Tea Party loyalist could refuse to see? link in question

4) Am I mistaken, or are most of the counterparties "buying" this AIG stock just other zombie banks expanding their market cap entirely with funds they were given by US taxpayers in the first place? If so, isn't than Enron type "profits" ?


The first thing to keep in mind is that this company lost over 95% of it's market capitalization value, from a high of 213B to 139M during the course of their fall. This money was LOST by the shareholders - many of them pension funds, private companies and individuals - never to return. Gone. Bye-bye.

At the peak in 2007, AIG held over one trillion dollars worth of assets. Of course, vast swaths of these assets were poisoned by bad mortgages, which were included in over-valued tranches. These were the vehicles purchased by the Maiden Lane programs. The Maiden Lane assets (in particular the AIG portfolio in Maiden Lane III) were sold at a profit. How did this happen? Buy low, sell high, that's how. The Treasury purchased those assets and waited for the market to rally on free money.

AIG originally sold credit default swaps on senior tranches of CDOs ahead of the financial crisis. In 2008, as the value of mortgage debt plummeted and AIG was hit with credit rating downgrades, its counterparties on the CDS – large banks – demanded increasing amounts of collateral, eventually overwhelming the company.

In return for cancelling the CDS, Maiden Lane III, with a loan from the New York Fed and money from AIG, bought the CDO securities AIG had insured. Including the collateral AIG had already posted, the counterparties ultimately received 100 cents on the dollar for the CDO securities, rescue terms that critics still call unfair.

Some of these same counterparties, such as Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Bank of America, through its Merrill Lynch Pierce Fenner & Smith unit, now have the chance to buy back these securities at discounts and resell them to investors for a profit.


So these assets are still toxic, but, hey - they're high yield. So they're back to playing the same game as before. It worked once, right?

AIG payed off their bailout funds by a wide variety of transactions, stock sales, liquidations, subsidiary off-loadings, and IPOs that netted a huge amount of money. I think the Treasury did indeed make some profit, just as they say. It's pretty easy to make a profit when

- your company is backed by the full faith and credit off the US Treasury and Congress, and

- money is ZIRPy for high end investors.

So yeah, the "taxpayers" - aka, the Treasury - made a profit, except for all those people who lost the 213 billion dollars around 2009. And why wouldn't investors be interested in the new issuances of stocks coming straight from the US gov? As far as I can tell, AIG still holds over half a trillion dollars worth of assets, now laundered of the crap.
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Re: Am I wrong about AIG?

Postby barracuda » Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:14 pm

JackRiddler wrote:I don't have time to examine these numbers closely, but right after AIG went under, the NY Fed under Geithner oversaw the payment of $130 billion in credit-default swap obligations to the big banks that AIG would have otherwise fully defaulted on. Geithner insisted on paying off 100 cents to the dollar, even when a couple of the banks wanted to negotiate slightly lower amounts and, of course, there was no obligation whatsoever for the government to cover AIG's previously undisclosed private contracts. Societe Generale and Goldman Sachs each got $13 billion. This did not involve acquisition of any assets, toxic or otherwise. So that money is gone, it can never produce any return for the public. Any accounting of the AIG costs that doesn't start with that is a lie. The Fed and government could have done anything they liked, but accepted the TBTF cover story as gospel. (And what if the banks had been allowed to fail? Bailout funds would have had a rational purpose, salvaging states and solvent institutions to restart after the disaster with the biggest parasites eliminated.) The fake numbers being presented as profit now are peanuts by comparison. When you're busy, "cynicism" - which here is merely the assumption that known liars who have lied many times are lying again - is an acceptable heuristic.


My understanding is these payouts were part of the bailout funds which have now been repaid.
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