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82_28 » Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:26 pm wrote:You got a link to that Searcher? I assume the Onion.
82_28 » Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:24 pm wrote:Yeah, I read that too iam. It seems like the whole "mission" of this is the mystery it overlays upon the "status-quo". The story is the mystery. It's being done for an occluded end. Also, correct me if I am wrong, many nations are taking part in this wild goose chase. Russia does not seem to be taking part (that I know of). Perhaps this is some kind of ploy that works in two directions, possibly multiple. It allows fleets of US or NATO craft to be in the area for a "good reason". As long as the mystery is amped up and kept at by the really all-powerful media it opens free a window in which much propaganda can come and go.
Is Russia taking part? I don't think so -- at least from the "news" we get in our necks of the woods. Correct me. However, in these "tenuous" times having Russian and American and Chinese warships floating around together would seem absurd. So thus you create a mystery straight out of whole cloth. Make it seem real when in fact it is not -- at least at the gravity of the situation. Something more is afoot insofar as maintaining the mystery.
The MYSTERY is the story and the reason for all of this.
justdrew » Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:29 pm wrote:aww, come on... probably the transponder cut out for the same reason there was no radio contact. A (battery) fire ruined the wiring to/from the radio/antenna. They tooled around low and slow trying to find a place to land with no radio contact or help from air traffic control and eventually ditched.
How long was the flight supposed to be? There's not usually much 'extra' fuel on board. Four hours of the engines pinging satellites gives us a fairly clear time of when it ditched. IS that time likely to be when it would have run out of fuel? Probably.
Lord Balto » 13 Mar 2014 17:48 wrote:justdrew » Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:29 pm wrote:aww, come on... probably the transponder cut out for the same reason there was no radio contact. A (battery) fire ruined the wiring to/from the radio/antenna. They tooled around low and slow trying to find a place to land with no radio contact or help from air traffic control and eventually ditched.
How long was the flight supposed to be? There's not usually much 'extra' fuel on board. Four hours of the engines pinging satellites gives us a fairly clear time of when it ditched. IS that time likely to be when it would have run out of fuel? Probably.
These guys couldn't find Kuala Lumpur without a map, so they had to "tool around"? Really? As for "extra fuel," this plane had enough fuel to get to Beijing. Worst case, it could have continued on to there, or landed any place else in eastern China. Guongdong has an airport. Hong Kong has an airport. Even Hanoi has an airport. This isn't Amelia Earhart flying back and forth looking for a tropical island in the middle of the Pacific.
justdrew » Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:09 pm wrote:Lord Balto » 13 Mar 2014 17:48 wrote:justdrew » Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:29 pm wrote:aww, come on... probably the transponder cut out for the same reason there was no radio contact. A (battery) fire ruined the wiring to/from the radio/antenna. They tooled around low and slow trying to find a place to land with no radio contact or help from air traffic control and eventually ditched.
How long was the flight supposed to be? There's not usually much 'extra' fuel on board. Four hours of the engines pinging satellites gives us a fairly clear time of when it ditched. IS that time likely to be when it would have run out of fuel? Probably.
These guys couldn't find Kuala Lumpur without a map, so they had to "tool around"? Really? As for "extra fuel," this plane had enough fuel to get to Beijing. Worst case, it could have continued on to there, or landed any place else in eastern China. Guongdong has an airport. Hong Kong has an airport. Even Hanoi has an airport. This isn't Amelia Earhart flying back and forth looking for a tropical island in the middle of the Pacific.
they cold have been scared of flying into busy airspace with no radio
barracuda wrote:The path from RI moderator to True Blood fangirl to Jehovah's Witness seems pretty straightforward to me. Perhaps even inevitable.
omnipotentpoobah
(embedded links)
Where’s Waldo: Malaysia Airlines MH370
Posted on March 12, 2014
The world is playing a huge game of Where’s Waldo trying to find Malaysia Airlines flight 370 (MH370). That’s pretty hard when the search area expands to the size of Montana. Families are frustrated. Everyone wants to fill in the blanks. And, much of the filling comes from incomplete answers and goofy theories while the public’s idea is that flying airplanes is analogous to driving to the local Safeway.
If you have questions or want to join the discussion, leave a comment and I’ll get back to you.
MH370 Causes
I was once an aircraft mechanic on dozens of airplanes from Navy F-14s to 19-seat commuters. I logged several hundred hours on the flight deck as a flying mechanic in the Air Force and trained as an air traffic controller. I also worked as a technical writer for jet engines and aircraft systems installed on everything from transport aircraft to the Space Shuttle. I’ve held an FAA mechanic’s license for almost 40 years. In other words, I know my way around airplanes. So here are some theories and information to help you understand why nobody has a clue about what happened and why we may never know.
MH370 Was Just There a Minute Ago
What happened: MH370′s flight track appears normal for the first part of the flight from Kuala Lumpur to Bejing. You can see the moment the flight track disappeared from radar at about 20 seconds in this video. Notice MH370 is just beginning a left turn, the opposite of what Malaysia’s military claims.
Flight track information comes not only from radar, but also a device called a transponder. Transponders send the airplane’s ID, speed, and altitude to air traffic control. Without it, the airplane is just an unidentified speck on the radar.
Radar signals disappear for several common reasons and aren’t unusual. For example, there are gaps in coverage over water or an aircraft is too low to see. Transponder information either disappears from electrical failure or being intentionally turned off by the pilot. Malaysian military radar may have seen the transponder information after it disappeared because commercial and military radar differ.
A total electrical failure happens when both engines shut down or a major electrical panel fails. The chances of a twin-engine or electrical failure are astronomically low, especially since B777s also have a backup ram air generator independent of the engine electrical system. Triple redundancy.
The most likely scenario is that the pilot intentionally turned off the transponder, a never happens event and extremely hard to do accidentally. There are also backup rules to follow in case the transponders or radios fail. The plane followed neither.
Probability: The pilots probably shut down the transponder under duress. That may indicate a hijacker aboard, especially since the transponder can send a special code to alert authorities of bad guys on the plane. Many people fly on bad passports so even if authorities cleared the infamous fake passport holders, it’s very possible that a hijacker could travel on a valid or very well-faked passport. Remember this is how the 9/11 hijackers got into the U.S.
What’s Up With the Search Area
What happened: A multi-national armada searched the suspected crash zone for several days while the Malaysian military sporadically claimed the plane turned in a different direction. Officials more than doubled the search area over more open and deeper water and thick jungle. The military continues to waffle on the their story, denying some details as late as today.
The military now claims it doesn’t have radar data showing the exact course or where they lost the MH370 radar contact. In other words, they are as clueless as everyone else.
Ineptitude is the only plausible explanation for why the story persists and keeps changing. Even without transponder information the radar contact alone should have strengthened as it approached shore and allegedly passed close by military installations. If the military really does know the flight path (remember the transponder shows a right turn while the military claims a left turn) the search area would be much smaller than now.
Probability: For some in explicable reason the Malaysians don’t really know about the turn or course and they have no clear reason to keep changing their minds. That is cause enough to seriously question their information. Finding a crash site over water may never yield MH370.
Maybe It Just Blew Up
What happened: Absent actually finding wreckage, this is the most unlikely scenario. Planes almost never just blow up, even in terror acts. Fires caused most of the few known catastrophic failures. Exploding engines, oddball explosions like TWA flight 800, or the top of Aloha flight 243′s fuselage cracking off are among the rarest accidents on Earth.
Catastrophic failures at cruise altitude don’t pulverize a fuselage they leave fairly large pieces of debris and generally allow enough time to send a signal, even if the pilots are busy trying to control the plane. The radio transmitter switches are literally under the pilots’ thumbs on the steering yoke. It is click and talk, that fast and simple.
This theory also dovetails with the flight track details. If officials actually knew MH370′s location they probably would have found some debris by now. Even massive explosions leave fairly large chunks over a wide area like the terrorist destruction of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland.
Even with wreckage, it’s extremely difficult to find crash causes. Investigators confirmed terrorist action on flight 103 from a single transistor smaller than a thumbnail from a circuit board hidden in a baggage container from a debris field scattered over an 81 mile long path. That won’t happen dredging up pieces of sunken airliner.
Probability: It is almost impossible.
Give Me a Little Air
Explosive decompression is nothing like the movies. Small holes, like a bullet or leaking pressure seal, almost never have any effect on large planes. When they do there is plenty of time for oxygen masks to drop and the crew to put theirs on. The hole is just too small to let all that air to quickly escape.
Examples of oxygen malfunction from small holes or system failures, like golfer Payne Stewart’s crash, usually happen to small aircraft without advanced oxygen warning systems and small interiors. When they do happen the pilot falls asleep and the airplane typically flies the last heading until it runs out of fuel. MH370 didn’t do that.
True explosive decompression can come from a moderate-sized hole like a broken window to something as large as Aloha’s missing roof or door failures like United flight 811s.
I’ve experienced explosive decompression and Harrison Ford doesn’t fly down the aisle and hang from the edge of a door for 30 seconds. That only happens when a huge hole opens and then the passenger falls out they’re not sucked out.
Explosive decompression, except at very high altitude, is more discombobulating than eminently dangerous. There is a pop, the cabin fills with an impenetrable mist for a few seconds, and the air quickly rushes out of your lungs and ears. You almost always have a few seconds to put on the oxygen mask. Even if that isn’t possible, passengers simply go to sleep until they airplane reaches a lower altitude where they can easily breathe.
Probability: Very unlikely at best, though it is possible.
Just Where is Waldo’s Airplane?
The “mystery” of MH370 is probably no mystery at all, though we don’t know the cause now. Barring dumb luck, searchers probably won’t find the plane in a search area this large. No plane, no way to pinpoint a cause. At this point all we know is that airplanes disappearing like this are astronomically rare and the truly probable causes are limited.
In the unlikely event searchers do find MH370 it will be extremely hard to reconstruct the problem. Water and debris fields scattering for hundreds of miles in the ocean current precludes getting enough debris to learn a lot, Pan Am 103′s transistor notwithstanding.
If an “expert” contends they have answers at this point they are lying. Without vital information everything, including my comments here, are speculation. People are frustrated and the most likely event is that will continue.
There will be few answers anytime soon. I’m pretty confident MH370 wasn’t stolen and hidden on a remote island or that aliens haven’t picked it up.
But, that is purely speculation.
_______
Related articles
Why would it stop sending signals? (cnn.com)
MH370′s Locating Device Went Silent Before Disappearance (rss.nytimes.com)
MH370 ‘Phantom call’ theory dismissed by experts (CNN)
Travellers will ‘shun’ Malaysia Airlines over disappearance of flight MH370 (Daily Mail)
Missing Malaysia Airlines plane co-pilot ‘smoked with two blondes in cockpit’ years ago (Daily Express)
MH 370 – An alien abduction maybe? (turcopolier.typepad.com)
Last words heard from the crew of MH370 (theage.com.au)
Malaysia Flight MH370 – Note I Already Said On Sunday That It Could Have Landed Somewhere Remote. Plus Transponders. (nhlife.wordpress.com)
Malaysian Airlines flight MH370: authorities accused of ‘chaotic’ response (telegraph.co.uk)
I haven't trolled through all the other posts, so apologies if this point has been covered before.
Having flown that route many times myself, (and in a 777, not that that has anything to do with it), I'd be very surprised to find there were not quite a large number of eye (or at least ear) witnesses to the aircraft hitting the sea. The number of fishing boats in those waters beggars belief. Overflying that area at night, there are so many fishing boats, each with a light, you could be forgiven for thinking you were overflying a huge city.
If I'm correct, it will probably be a day or two before any such eye/ear witnesses return to port.
Flight Radar24 is a compilation of unofficial personal receivers out in the world placed into one website in Russia for us all to watch. Whilst I love the App and use it frequently It doesn't cover all of the planet and is unreliable.
Remember ADS-B transmit receive data is "line of sight" and maybe, just maybe the data you are watching comes to an end because MH 370 moved out of sight of the receiver Flight Radar24 use in that part of the World.
"Not to be used for navigation" or proof of...
I occasionally run an adsb receiver in South Vietnam, I never hooked it up to publicly transmit anything to the global internets, but I can confirm that "enthusiast" coverage over large parts of SE asia is spotty and random. Most of these gadgets are not online 24/7, not redundant in any way, and a lot of airspace isnt covered. Central Europe is different, but believe me, That the track disappeared but others were tracked says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
(And for those here who might be interested in looking at the ongoing search operation by tracking ships: publicly accessible martitime transponder - AIS - coverage is much worse. Last time I checked, there was a french electrical engineer working for a shipyard who set up a very capable yagi out of Saigon, but that's about it).
Well I will throw this out there. Thursday we were flying from HKG to Hano late morningi. While in HK airspace a ANA cargo flight reported a TCAS contact 3 miles, at 8 o clock, 1,000 feet below. HK atc called in the blind to the "unidentified" a/c, whih was squawking 1400 to initially identify itself, and when that did not work, to press ident, to which she got a "reply". She was able to verify their level. This went on till we transfered to Sanya, but the ANA guys were able to see the a/c and it was clearly "shadowing" them. I know the Chinese and Americans have being shadow boxing in the region of late, but this is the first time I have heard of a civilian a/c being caught up... At the time it was unnerving. Now,.... Just saying...
At the two hour + mark, they would have been abeam VVTS or a bit north talking to HCM control. The route runs up to the coast past Hainan then they would crossed into China through VHHH.
Just as an aside, on a course in the '80s about dealing with major incidents with numerous fatalities, one of the lectures was by Kentons, who at that time, and perhaps now, undertook the task of identifying victims from whatever remains were available at most of not all such events in the UK.
One of the many memorable things we learnt was the fact that in every such event, about 5% of the victims will be travelling under false identities, or secretly under their own identities, or otherwise are not quite what they appear to be. The speaker cited an amazing dance troupe of young girls, who turned out to be entirely male. Others were travelling on false passports, and on every flight, it seems, there is at least one gent with a lady not his wife/partner, who was supposed to be somewhere else entirely (the gent, not the lady).
So I wouldn't be too troubled or puzzled by this (I'm puzzled about why you are "troubled"); it's pretty much normal and doesn't mean anything.
This reminded me of the recent EY B777 that diverted into CGK with toilet fires. Could there be a reason why the B777 was/is being selected? I have noticed that on other aircraft types the toilets are normally located at the front and back, but vary rarely directly over the wing spar or centre tank. On other aircraft a device detonated at the rear toilets might be manageable especially considering it is so close to the LRBL.
Could the toilets in the mid cabin of the B777 somehow allow access to the centre fuel tanks through the floor, and if so could some crazy individuals have set this alight without need for anything more than an ignition source?
(For you who don't want to click: Ramzi Yousef checks in, using a fake ID, on a one-stop flight to Japan, A -> B -> Japan. From point A to point B he arranges a bomb to explode the centre fuel tank. He departs at point B. During the flight to Japan the bomb explodes but doesn't penetrate the fuel tank [different model of aircraft]. Philippine police finds out the fake ID is really Mr Bomber and raids his appartment. Damning evidence of foul play, and Mr Bomber ends up in US prison. Plan was to blow up about 12 US airliners simultaneously.)
Now, this has to do with the terrorist angle of this missing mystery as this COULD have been a repeat of the above. Some people questioned why terrorists would choose a Malaysian airline... simple answer is "convenience". IF terrorists did this (AND WE DO NOT KNOW THAT YET) they might just have chosen this flight for plain convenience. Nothing to do with Malaysia or even China for that matter. Just as in the case with the Philippine airline.
Malaysian Customs and Immigration takes photos of each departing passenger's face as well as electronically scanned fingerprints.
Stand by for the images of the four suspect passengers - if they are 'interesting'
If I turn off my phone and am international, it sounds like you are connecting to it when you dial the number so it still rings to the caller.
Was wondering if the recent spate of toilet fires on the flight from OZ to Mideast were a testing ground for something else that didn't work then, but it did this time. Both Muslim carriers, good airlines, and was wondering if any false passports were on the Etihad flight as well?? I'm just thinking out aloud......
If it was terrorists ,here is what they did:
Entered the flight-deck by force or for a visit by invitation of the crew at top of climb pluss a few minutes ,when coffe i provided .
Then incapasitated the crew and did 3 things that takes 2 seconds:
Firehandel 1 and 2 ,release and pull. Battery off.!
This will shut down any and all transmissions from the aircraft in less then 10 secunds.
As reported by many irritated professionals, this thread is unusual on this site for the sheer amount of amateur and extraneous speculation clogging it. However ; there's a reason for that. I've been lurking on this site for many years, only contributing to areas open to aviation enthusiasts, and never wanting to get in the way, and have watched carefully the reactions of professionals to many previous threads. The disproportionate non-expert response here seems to be precisely because of a spectacularly unusual lack of technical information for those with expertise to process in this timeframe.
Please can we put this recurrent theory to bed.
Short version - the ringing tone returned to the caller is bogus.
Why it happens -
Cellular phone systems first try to route a call to the last cell which was in contact with the phone. If this fails the system tries to locate the phone to other cells and then tries to divert to voicemail.
All of this searching takes time, during which a caller hearing silence would probably hang up before the call can be connected so the system returns a ringing tone to the caller. In most cases this is a successful strategy but it does mean that if the phone is not eventually found the caller is misled into believing that it is working OK but not being answered.
Well what do you know - we now have admission from officials at last that they tracked MH370 to the Strait of Malacca!! So why has everyone been searching Between Malaysia & Vietnam? If you were one of those searchers you'd be feeling rather PO wouldn't you? I mean how long have they known this - surely it just didn't come to light as of now. Raises the questions now that there is much more yet to be told that is obviously being held back. So much for SAR co-operation in the future. Politics/borders etc - first casualty is always the truth which we may never know.
barracuda wrote:The path from RI moderator to True Blood fangirl to Jehovah's Witness seems pretty straightforward to me. Perhaps even inevitable.
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