Trump's Big Win Was Predicted by This Professor: Now Hear His Shocking New Omen
According to election predictor Allan Lichtman, Trump will soon be impeached.
By Alexandra Rosenmann / AlterNet November 11, 2016
Very few pollsters predicted Donald Trump even clinching the nomination and it took months for some to accept his run as anything other than a publicity stunt. Still, when he did win the nomination, Trump's chances of becoming president never hovered above 30% according to Nate Silver, until approximately 8:30pm on election night.
However, Washington, D.C.-based professor Allan Lichtman explained why Trump would win in September 2016.
"Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory," he told the Washington Post.
Lichtman's system of "keys" is detailed in his new book, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016. In short, it was the political climate surrounding President Obama's second term that laid fertile ground for an upset from the Republican side.
While 90% of Republicans voted for Trump, Lichtman insisted that this marriage between establishment Republicans and Donald Trump is doomed.
“I'm going to make another prediction,” Lichtman said. “This one is not based on a system; it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable."
Lichtman then explained what he believes the House is planning.
"They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
And he's not the only one making this prediction.
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/t ... g-new-omen
The View From Trump Tower
NOV. 11, 2016
Protesters marching to Trump Tower in Manhattan the night after the election. Credit Yana Paskova for The New York Times
If your social circles are like mine, you spent Tuesday night swapping miserable texts. Not all, but many of my friends and family members were outraged, stunned, disgusted and devastated. This is victory for white supremacy, people wrote, for misogyny, nativism and authoritarianism. Fascism is descending.
I was on PBS trying to make sense of what was happening while trying to text various people off the ledge. At one point I was opining about the results while a disbelieving text flashed across my phone: “Change It! Change It! CHAAAANGE IT!”
Those emotional reactions were a fitting first-night response to the greatest political shock of our lifetimes. Still, this is probably not the best mentality for the coming era.
In the first place, emotions like disgust don’t do justice to the complexity of Donald Trump’s supporters. The disgusted posture risks turning politics into a Manichaean civil war between the alleged children of light and the alleged children of darkness — between us enlightened, college-educated tolerant people and the supposed primitive horde driven by dark fears and prejudices. That crude and ignorant condescension is what feeds the Trump phenomenon in the first place.
Second, we simply don’t yet know how much racism or misogyny motivated Trump voters. It is true that those voters are willing to tolerate a lot more bigotry in their candidate than I’d be willing to tolerate. But if you were stuck in a jobless town, watching your friends OD on opiates, scrambling every month to pay the electric bill, and then along came a guy who seemed able to fix your problems and hear your voice, maybe you would stomach some ugliness, too.
Third, outrage and disgust impede learning. This century is still being formed and none of us understand it yet. The century really began on 9/11, and so far it has been marked by strong reactions against globalism and cosmopolitanism — by terrorism, tribalism and authoritarianism.
Populism of the Trump/Le Pen/Brexit variety has always been a warning sign, a warning sign that there is some deeper dysfunction in our economic, social and cultural systems. If you want to take that warning sign and dismiss it as simple bigotry, you’re never going to pause to understand what’s going on and you will never know how to constructively respond.
Finally, it seems important to be humbled and taught by this horrific election result. Trump’s main problem in governing is not going to be some fascistic ideology; his main problem is going to be his own attention span, ignorance and incompetence. If he’s left to bloviate while others are left to run the country and push through infrastructure plans, maybe things won’t be disastrous.
The job for the rest of us is to rebind the fabric of society, community by community, and to construct a political movement for the post-Trump era. I suspect the coming political movements will be identified on two axes: open and closed and individual and social.
Those who believe in open trade, relatively open immigration, an active foreign policy and racial integration. Those who believe in closed believe in protective trade, closed borders, a withdrawn foreign policy and ethnic separatism.
Those who favor individual believe in individual initiative, designing programs to incentivize enterprise and removing regulatory barriers. Those who believe in social believe that social mobility happens within rich communities — that people can undertake daring adventures when they have a secure social and emotional base.
Donald Trump is probably going to make the G.O.P. the party of individual/closed. He’s going to start with the traditional Republican agenda of getting government out of the way, and he’s going to add walls, protectionism and xenophobia. That will leave people isolated in the face of the challenges of the information age economy, and it will close off the dynamism and diversity that always marked this crossroads of the nation.
The Democrats are probably going to be the party of social/closed. The coming Sanders-Warren party will advocate proposals that help communities with early education programs and the like, but that party will close off trade, withdraw from the world, close off integration with hyper-race-conscious categories and close off debate with political correctness.
Which is why I’ve been thinking we need a third party that is social/open. This compassionate globalist party would support the free trade and skilled immigration that fuel growth. But it would also flood the zone for those challenged in the high-skill global economy — offering programs to rebuild community, foster economic security and boost mobility. It would integrate the white working class and minority groups by emphasizing that we are all part of a single American idea.
Trump’s bigotry, dishonesty and promise-breaking will have to be denounced. We can’t go morally numb. But he needs to be replaced with a program that addresses the problems that fueled his ascent.
After all, the guy will probably resign or be impeached within a year. The future is closer than you think.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/opini ... tower.html
U RESEARCHER: TRUMP UNIVERSITY LAWSUITS PRESENT POTENTIAL IMPEACHMENT CASE
NEW ANALYSIS UNVEILED TODAY BY UNIVERSITY OF UTAH S.J. QUINNEY COLLEGE OF LAW PROFESSOR CHRISTOPHER L. PETERSON OUTLINES WHY THERE IS A LEGALLY SUFFICIENT CASE TO IMPEACH DONALD TRUMP UNDER THE U.S. CONSTITUTION ON CHARGES RELATED TO FRAUD AND RACKETEERING FOR PRIOR CONDUCT IF HE IS ELECTED PRESIDENT.
Sep 20, 2016
As the presidential race continues to heat up, a new legal analysis released today by University of Utah S.J. Quinney College of Law professor Christopher L. Peterson outlines why there is a legally sufficient case to impeach Republican nominee Donald Trump under the U.S. Constitution on charges related to fraud and racketeering for prior conduct if he is elected in November.
In an analysis titled “Trump University and Presidential Impeachment,” Peterson explores Trump’s actions as the leader of Trump University, a for-profit business founded in 2005 where students spent upwards of $30,000 to learn real estate development skills. Trump University advertised curriculum and instructors chosen by Trump, promising students a high-caliber and selective experience. In fact, according to Peterson, Trump University was an unaccredited and unlicensed series of get-rich-quick seminars provided by traveling salesmen. The school closed in 2010 and lawsuits—including one filed by the state of New York alleging Trump tricked students out of $40 million—are ongoing. (Two class action cases in California are also pending). Peterson asserts that Trump’s pending consumer protection lawsuits for fraud and racketeering will cast a shadow over his presidency if Trump wins the election and possibly be legally permissible grounds for impeachment should he be elected to the White House.
Peterson explains that under the U.S. Constitution, presidents can be impeached for bribery, treason or other high crimes and misdemeanors. He argues that fraud and racketeering—both of which are alleged as civil claims against Trump in the pending lawsuits—may qualify as impeachable high crimes or misdemeanors under the U.S. Constitution.
“In the United States, it is illegal for businesses to use false statements to convince consumers to purchase their services,” explains Peterson. “The evidence indicates that Trump University used a systemic pattern of fraudulent representations to trick thousands of families into investing in a program that can be argued was a sham.”
“Fraud and racketeering are serious crimes that legally rise to the level of impeachable acts,” Peterson adds.
Among points raised in Peterson’s analysis:
Fraud and racketeering are serious crimes. Both fraud and racketeering are considered felonies under state and federal law. First-degree fraud is punishable by up to four years in prison in Trump’s home state of New York. Racketeering is punishable by up to 20 years in prison under federal law.
Civil cases can legally inform Congress on whether impeachment is justified. The U.S. Constitution has never required criminal conviction prior to impeachment proceedings.
Impeachment for pre-incumbency conduct is legally permissible under the U.S. Constitution. Nothing in the Constitution’s text requires impeachable conduct to have occurred while the president is in office. The framers rejected alternative formulations of impeachable offenses that included limitations to incumbent activity.
Peterson’s analysis is among the first from a legal scholar offering an objective and professional analysis of these issues. Unlike other political issues currently subject to debate, the legal claims of fraud and racketeering in the Trump University cases have survived early judicial scrutiny and are likely to proceed to trial. Peterson’s research focuses on the Trump University cases—and not on the background of other presidential candidates—because the legal issues facing Trump align with his academic expertise.
A recognized authority on consumer protection cases, Peterson has frequently testified in Congressional hearings and has presented his research to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve Board of Governors and at the White House in both Democratic and Republican administrations.
Peterson’s books include the Thompson/West casebook Consumer Law: Cases and Materials and Taming the Sharks: Towards a Cure for the High Cost Credit Market which won the American College of Consumer Financial Services Lawyers’ outstanding book of the year prize. He is a consumer fellow of the American Bar Association’s Consumer Financial Services Committee. He is a recipient of the National Association of Consumer Agency Administrators’ Consumer Advocate of the Year award and the Department of Defense’s Office of the Secretary of Defense Award for Excellence—both bestowed in recognition of his role in promoting an Act of Congress and subsequently implementing regulations that protect military service members from predatory lending practices.
Peterson is currently the John J. Flynn Endowed Professor of Law at the University of Utah’s S.J. Quinney College of Law where he teaches contracts, commercial law and consumer protection courses. From 2012 to 2016, he served as a special advisor in the Office of the Director at the United States Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, in the Office of Legal Policy for Personnel and Readiness in the United States Department of Defense and as Senior Counsel for Enforcement Policy and Strategy in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Office of Enforcement.
He is available for media interviews about his latest research on Trump. Peterson’s research is available here.
http://unews.utah.edu/university-of-uta ... ald-trump/
Trump University and Presidential Impeachment
Christopher Lewis Peterson
University of Utah - S.J. Quinney College of Law
September 20, 2016
In the final weeks of the 2016 Presidential campaign Donald J. Trump faces three lawsuits accusing him of fraud and racketeering. These ongoing cases focus on a series of wealth seminars called “Trump University” which collected over $40 million from consumers seeking to learn Trump’s real estate investing strategies. Although these consumer protection cases are civil proceedings, the underlying legal elements in several counts that plaintiffs seek to prove run parallel to the legal elements of serious crimes under both state and federal law. This essay provides a legal analysis of whether Trump’s alleged behavior would, if proven, rise to the level of impeachable offenses under the presidential impeachment clause of the United States Constitution. This essay begins with a summary of the evidence assembled in the three pending Trump University civil lawsuits. Next, it describes the legal claims involved in each matter. Then, this essay summarizes the applicable law of presidential impeachment under the United States Constitution and analyzes whether Trump’s actions in connection with Trump University are impeachable offenses. Finally, I offer concluding thoughts, considering in particular the policy implications of a major presidential campaign with simultaneously pending legal complaints of fraud and racketeering.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 22
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2841306.
Michael Moore Wants to Lead an Anti-Donald Trump Resistance 'That Will Dwarf Occupy Wall Street'
Trump, he argued, "doesn't have any ideology; the only thing he believes in is Donald Trump."
By Brendan Gauthier / Salon November 12, 2016
In an interview with the Los Angeles Times, documentary filmmaker Michael Moore suggested the left form a resistance movement against President-elect Donald Trump.
“That doesn’t make me feel good, the fact that I was right. I never wanted to be more wrong,” Moore told the Times. “I just don’t live in the bubble of New York and L.A. and I was worried with what I was witnessing in the Midwest, the Rust Belt, what I call the ‘Brexit’ states.”
“I’m going to be one of the people leading the opposition to him, that’s going to stop him. It will be a mass movement of millions that will dwarf Occupy Wall Street,” he added. “I don’t believe anyone in the media who says we’re going to have four years of Trump. This is a man who doesn’t have any ideology; the only thing he believes in is Donald Trump. And that’s usually a one-way ticket out of office.”
Moore said that as a consequence of Trump’s victory, “The DNC has to resign. They all have to resign.”
“We’re not going to fix the Democratic Party — we’re going to take it over,” he warned. “The Democratic Party doesn’t seem to get it. Working people that are both African American and white — don’t make it a racial thing — have suffered at the hands of both Republicans and Democrats.”
Describing his involvement with the #NotMyPresident protests going on around country, Moore told CNN’s Don Lemon Thursday that Trump’s “presidency has to be opposed right now.”
“Republicans were ready to start the impeachment hearings on day one against Hillary Clinton,” he said. “The other side needs to be ready to roll right now to do whatever needs to be done.”
http://www.alternet.org/activism/michae ... all-street
Michael Moore Predicts Donald Trump Won’t Last The Full 4 Years
“He will break laws because he’s only thinking about what’s best for him.”
11/11/2016 03:50 pm ET
Associate Editor, HuffPost Hawaii
Trump will be impeached or resign, Moore argues.
Documentary filmmaker Michael Moore, who in July correctly predicted Donald Trump would win the White House, now says the president-elect’s first term will end in either his resignation or impeachment.
“Here’s what’s going to happen, this is why we’re not going to have to suffer through four years of Donald J. Trump, because he has no ideology except the ideology of Donald J. Trump,” Moore said Friday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “And when you have a narcissist like that, who’s so narcissistic where it’s all about him, he will, maybe unintentionally, break laws. He will break laws because he’s only thinking about what’s best for him.”
When host Mika Brzezinski asked Moore if he were now wishing ill on Trump, Moore replied, “He is ill.”
“He is racist,” Moore said. “He is a misogynist. He is an authoritarian.”
Like Moore, political historian Allan Lichtman predicted Trump would be president. But he also forecast that the next president would be impeached.
“This one is not based on a system; it’s just my gut,” Lichtman told The Washington Post in September. “[Republicans] don’t want Trump as president, because they can’t control him. He’s unpredictable. They’d love to have [Vice President-elect Mike] Pence — an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
Moore participated in a massive anti-Trump protest in Manhattan on Wednesday and has urged relentless resistance.
“We are going to resist, we are going to oppose,” he told MSNBC. “This is going to continue, tonight and the next night and the next night. And all he has to do is start nominating Rudy Giuliani as attorney general, and things like that ― or his Supreme Court. This is going to be a massive resistance. Women are calling for a million woman march on the Inauguration Day, and there is going to be the largest demonstration ever on Inauguration Day.”
Earlier this week in New York, Moore called for demonstrations to continue until Trump is out of office.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mic ... b63b0c6dee