The Coming War on China

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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby brekin » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:20 pm

dada wrote:
brekin » Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:17 pm wrote:
Maybe I misread the thread title. Is it The Coming War on China or dada's Upcoming Vacation to China? :jumping:

No, have your war, don't let me stop you:)
Maybe I'm working for China. One of those Art of War spies.

No judgement there. A man has got to eat.

norton ash wrote:An hour after I read The Art of War I was just hungry for power again.

Love it.

But allow me to recommend the War of Art.

Image ... 1936891026
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby SonicG » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:20 pm

Interesting that the map shows Vietnam as a Chinese ally...There is still no love lost between Vietnam and China although the hub-bub is that they are still very beholden to them. They recently opened up the real estate market to foreigners, and there are a ton of condos going up here in HCMC (where I actually reside) that are being bought up by the Chinese. They had to keep a rule though that only 50% or so of a single building could be bought up by foreigners...And, of course, on Obama's visit earlier this year, the arms sales embargo on Vietnam was lifted and various joint military operations are supposed to be carried out. Very curious as to the new president's policy regarding Vietnam, especially since it is certainly still not anything near a democratic form of government. Again, the death of the TPP figures here. Vietnam has been still experiencing high growth and is ripe for foreign investment. The economy is ready to move into more technologically advanced manufacturing....
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby Searcher08 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:33 pm

norton ash » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:40 am wrote:An hour after I read The Art of War I was just hungry for power again.

:lol2: That is even better when read aloud in a Leslie Nielsen acccent.
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby PufPuf93 » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:12 am

Searcher08 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:53 am wrote:
dada » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:26 am wrote:
SonicG » Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:51 pm wrote:NZ apparently has a massive housing bubble is probably a good time to start studying Chinese...

I think it would be pretty cool to live in a giant housing bubble. Like Atlantis, with the big transparent dome:)

But I like the idea of driving fast on the intercontinental highway. I had a recurring dream about it when I was a kid. In an eighteen wheeler on a wide highway through the middle of nowhere in Russia.

I used to think it was echoes from a past life, but maybe it was echoes of the future.

Quick thread swerve:
How BIZARRE! I had a very similar dream when I was a kid. My greatest ambition was to drive an 18-wheeler from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego and back. Damn the pesky Darien Gap!

Did anyone note (except JackRiddler) the dream(s) I had the night of November 7/8, 2016?

Were the dreams harbingers of what would occur in the POTUS election of November 8?

Were they harbingers indirectly of war?



Note I posted about the dreams long before any election results were reported.
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby SonicG » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:03 am

Carrot and stick??

Terry Branstad, Iowa Governor, Is Trump’s Pick as China Ambassador

WASHINGTON — Terry Branstad, the Iowa governor who has long embraced China as a market for his state’s pork and soybeans, was tapped Wednesday by President-elect Donald J. Trump to represent the United States in one of its most complex and increasingly contentious foreign relationships, as his ambassador to China.

In choosing Mr. Branstad, 70, an amiable politician who likes to describe President Xi Jinping of China as an “old friend,” Mr. Trump sounded a softer note alongside his unrelenting criticism of China’s economic relationship with the United States.

At an event on Wednesday morning at Cipriani restaurant in Manhattan to raise money for his inauguration, Mr. Trump told the audience that Mr. Branstad was a great choice. “He knows them all,” Mr. Trump said three separate times, according to an attendee. The selection was first reported by Bloomberg News.

China was quick to embrace the choice, even before Mr. Trump’s announcement. At a regular news briefing in Beijing on Wednesday, Lu Kang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, described Mr. Branstad as “an old friend of the Chinese people,” a phrase used to describe politicians trusted by Beijing. “We would welcome him playing a bigger role in promoting Sino-American relations,” Mr. Lu said of Mr. Branstad.

As ambassador, Mr. Branstad would find himself in the middle of an increasingly fraught relationship. Mr. Trump campaigned against China, repeatedly describing Chinese imports to the United States as a form of theft. He has proposed a steep tariff on those imports and promised to seek vigorous enforcement of trade rules, such as restrictions on state support for private companies.

The selection also comes just days after Mr. Trump spoke with Taiwan’s president by phone, prompting criticism from Beijing, which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province. Mr. Trump then defended the call in a pair of Twitter messages criticizing China for its trade practices and provocative moves in the South China Sea.

Mr. Branstad is unusual in that he would have personal relationships with the leaders of both countries. Like many of the president-elect’s choices for senior positions in his administration, the governor was an early and unwavering supporter of Mr. Trump’s candidacy. One of the governor’s sons, Eric, ran the Trump campaign in Iowa. Another son, Marcus, has gone hunting with Mr. Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr.

Robert Hormats, a former under secretary of state in the Obama administration and now a vice chairman of Kissinger Associates, praised the choice.

“It’s a good pick because he knows President Xi, he can represent the heartland of the United States, which I think is very positive, and the fact that President Xi has been in his state twice is a very positive thing,” Mr. Hormats said Wednesday in China. “It creates a personal relationship that is very hard to replicate.”

Mr. Branstad, an Iowa native, graduated from the University of Iowa and then served briefly in the Army — yielding a priceless story about his role in arresting Jane Fonda for trespassing at Fort Bragg.

A lawyer by training, he entered the Iowa Legislature in 1973 and won election as governor in 1983. He served until 1999, then returned to office in 2011. In between, he was president of Des Moines University.

Mr. Branstad first met Mr. Xi in 1985, when as the first-term governor of Iowa he hosted a Chinese delegation that came to study American agricultural practices. The delegation included a 31-year-old official from rural Hebei Province, Mr. Xi.

Mr. Xi has fondly recalled that visit. He stayed in Muscatine, a small city in the eastern part of the state, where he was hosted by a couple and slept in their boys’ vacated bedroom, filled with “Star Trek” action figures. In early 2012, Mr. Xi briefly revisited Muscatine as vice president while preparing for his promotion to Communist Party leader later that year. He became the president in 2013.

“You can’t even imagine what a deep impression I had from my visit 27 years ago to Muscatine, because you were the first group of Americans that I came into contact with,” he told a group that included Mr. Branstad during his visit there. “My impression of the country came from you. For me, you are America.”

During his second stay in the governor’s mansion, Mr. Branstad has aggressively courted China as a market for Iowa’s produce. He has said little in public about the tensions over territorial disputes, North Korea’s nuclear weapons, and human rights restrictions in China that have shaped relations at the national level.

He has visited China several times, most recently on a trade mission in November.

Iowa, like the rest of the United States, runs a trade deficit with China. The Chinese buy food from the United States, including Iowa’s corn and pork. But Americans buy far more from China — a range of goods that can be surveyed at Walmart.

The United States imported $483 billion in goods and services from China last year, while exporting $116 billion to China. The numbers are similar this year.

As governor, Mr. Branstad has sought to increase American exports without criticizing Chinese imports, the standard Republican Party line before Mr. Trump’s ascendence.

“I am excited to catch up with our old friend, Xi Jinping,” Mr. Branstad said during a trade mission to China in 2013, which included a meeting with the new Chinese president. “The value of this relationship cannot be overstated. As a result, Iowa is the preferred provider to feed China’s growing population and our agriculture exports to China continue to grow.”

Mr. Trump has taken a very different line on that relationship. He has said repeatedly that China is suppressing the value of its currency, an outdated accusation. In recent years, China has intervened in exchange markets to prop up the value of its currency, manipulation that tends to benefit American exporters.

If Mr. Branstad is confirmed by the Senate, Iowa would get its first female governor. Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, 57, would take Mr. Branstad’s place. ... .html?_r=0

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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby brekin » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:56 am

^^One wonders if there really is a transparent public side to politics at all? It seems that Trump could meet with China and say I'm going to slam you repeatedly and make a call to Taiwan and we will have a few fakey fakey military encounters over the years but we are going to make each other rich, well, our elites rich.
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby SonicG » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:10 am

Indeed...I was just musing, how best to understand what lies ahead in the sure to be shitstorm of 2017? What do the Chinese and Russian and American and European billionaires want? That must be a key question...
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby SonicG » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:44 pm

The supposed "death" of NAFTA will probably aid the Chinese also...

Trump isn’t even president yet and China is already moving in on Mexico

China and Mexico have been friends for a long time, but after Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections, both countries are looking for more in their relationship.
Over the weekend, Chinese ambassador to Mexico Qiu Xiaoqi promised Mexicans his country is standing by them through the uncertain times ahead. “We are very important strategic partners, and we are willing to increase our efforts together with our Mexican counterparts to inject new energy into these relations,” he said (link in Spanish.) “We are sure that cooperation is going to be much strengthened.”
His comments were made during a press conference to launch a year of cultural festivities to celebrate the two countries’ 45 years of diplomatic relations. A day later, the two countries signed an agreement (Spanish) to expand food shipments from Mexico to China. Separately, Chinese oil major CNOOC made two handsome bids for contracts to explore Mexico’s offshore oil fields, and won.
“This means that they see Mexico as a trustworthy country,” said a beaming Pedro Joaquín Coldwell, Mexico’s energy secretary.
As the two main targets of Trump’s anti-globalization tirades, China and Mexico have a lot to commiserate about. The president-elect’s talk of tearing up trade deals, starting trade wars and closing borders irks both countries, which have big stakes on international trade. Strengthening their ties is a symbolic snub to Trump’s vision of the world.
Plus, both countries could benefit economically. Latin America is already a big piece of China’s international expansion strategy, and Mexico is one of the region’s largest markets. In turn, Mexico could use some Chinese investment at a time when it desperately needs to diversify its US-heavy portfolio. Indeed, officials and business leaders (Spanish) in Mexico are looking to China to plug the hole that US business might leave, if Trump carries through with his promises.
But before they get carried away with the potential geopolitical and economic boon of closer cooperation, a few words of caution, via Enrique Dussel Peters, who runs the China-Mexico Studies Center at Mexico’s National Autonomous University. “Given the differences with Trump, today it’s popular to postulate that China is going to be a solution for Mexico,” he said. “That could be, but today there are no concrete conditions for that.”
China and Mexico have been talking about getting closer for years, yet the results have so far been modest. The Asian country has been Mexico’s second biggest trading partner for more than a decade, but it’s an extremely uneven exchange. While Mexico’s imports from China have ballooned, its exports to the Asian country have only grown by a trickle.
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby dada » Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:12 pm

SonicG » Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:10 am wrote:What do the Chinese and Russian and American and European billionaires want? That must be a key question...

Better robots:)

Until then, obedient servants. The basic system to stay the same. For the billionaires, change is not good.

I'm guessing most don't find the idea of living in an underground bunker through a nuclear winter or unpredictable man-made plague very appealing. That's more a fantasy of the hardcore military strangeloves. But fear for the masses helps keep the pyramid intact. It's a dangerous risk they take playing this game, but the alternatives are scarier for them. Restructuring of values, guillotines, etc.

The allure of status, fame and fortune is important for billionaires, too. Keep everyone consuming, buying into the promises of the system.

Financial relationships are like realpolitik, shifting and realigning. Where the pyramid faces serious challenges, those with a vested interest in maintaining it will band together.

It helps to think of the billionaires not as the actors in the system. They are beholden to market forces. Billionaires are carrot chasers. They may have less freedom to act than you or I.
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby seemslikeadream » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:21 pm

Pentagon: Chinese naval ship seized an unmanned U.S. underwater vehicle in South China Sea
By Missy Ryan and Dan Lamothe December 16 at 11:46 AM

This file aerial view taken on July 27, 2012 shows part of the city of Sansha on the island of Yongxing, also known as Woody island in the disputed Paracel chain, which China now considers part of Hainan province. (AFP/Getty)
A Chinese naval ship seized an underwater naval drone that was being used by the U.S. Navy to test water conditions in the South China Sea, the Pentagon said Friday.

Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman, said the incident occurred on Dec. 15 about 50 nautical miles northwest of Subic Bay, in international waters in the South China Sea.

The USNS Bowditch, an oceanographic survey vessel with a mostly civilian crew, was in the process of recovering two unmanned ocean gliders, which are used to collect information about water conditions that can help U.S. vessels operate. A Chinese ship, a Dalang-III class submarine rescue vessel, approached the area, coming within about 500 yards of the Bowditch before dropping a small boat in the water. It seized one of the gliders and brought it aboard, Davis said.

The Bowditch contacted the Chinese ship and asked for the glider to be returned. Officials aboard the Chinese ship acknowledged the radio communication, Davis said, but said they were returning to normal operations. The ship then left the area.

“We would like it back and we would like this not to happen again,” Davis said, referring to the underwater drone. The incident occurred around 1:45 p.m. local time, the Navy said.

A defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter on the record, said the United States has made an official diplomatic communication to the Chinese government, “demanding the return of our stuff.”

There was no immediate response from Beijing, the official said.

The incident comes amid mounting tensions over Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, which have alarmed U.S. allies in the region and prompted the U.S. military to conduct “freedom of navigation” operations intended as a show of force. This week, a U.S. think tank reported that China has placed antiaircraft weapons on artificial islands, threatening to intensify the debate over disputed areas.

Davis said ships such as the Bowditch routinely conduct operations in the South China Sea. The Navy said the drones are operated by the Naval Oceanographic Office, which states in its promotional materials that it maintains the largest glider fleet in the world, with more than 130 “littoral battlespace sensing” crafts.

The gliders are piloted by civilian employees of the oceanographic office from Stennis Space Center in Mississippi through the use of encrypted satellite communications. They typically travel just a few miles per hour and are tracked by oceanographic vessels such as the USNS Bowditch. The data the drones collect is unclassified.

Sen. John McCain, (R.-Ariz.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Friday afternoon that the seizure is a “flagrant violation” of the laws of the seas.

“China had no right to seize this vehicle,” McCain said. “And the United States must not stand for such outrageous conduct.”

McCain said the incident fits a pattern of increasingly destabilizing Chinese behavior.

“This behavior will continue until it is met with a strong and determined U.S. response, which until now the Obama administration has failed to provide,” McCain said. “Freedom of the seas and the principles of the rules-based order are not self-enforcing. American leadership is required in their defense.”

It’s not clear how President-elect Donald Trump, who has been the subject of Chinese government ire since his recent outreach to leadership of Taiwan, will approach those maritime disputes. But he has criticized Beijing for “building a massive fortress in the middle of the South China Sea,” in addition to his complaints about Chinese monetary and trade policies.

Patrick Cronin, an expert on Asia-Pacific security at the Center for a New American Security, called the seizure “a brazen, calculated act of coercive diplomacy” and said it was intended to send a message to Trump ahead of his inauguration.

“Rather than wait several weeks, Beijing is advancing a provocative action offshore from a U.S. ally that had recently kowtowed to China,” Cronin said, referring to the incident’s location near the Philippines. The signal China wishes to send is unambiguous, he said: “‘If you challenge our sovereignty we will challenge yours.’ The U.S. response needs to be equally clear: if anyone messes with with our Navy the response will not be limited to words.” ... d9d47ebeeb

China holds first live-fire drills with aircraft carrier, warships

A live-fire drill using an aircraft carrier is seen carried out in the Bohai sea, China, December 14, 2016. Picture taken December 14, 2016. REUTERS/Stringer

China's military has carried out its first ever live-fire drills using an aircraft carrier and fighters in the northeastern Bohai Sea close to Korea, state media said.

China's growing military presence in the disputed South China Sea has fueled concern, with the United States criticizing its militarization of maritime outposts and holding regular air and naval patrols to ensure freedom of navigation.

No other country has claims in China's busy waterway of the Bohai Sea, but the drills come amid new tension over self-ruled Taiwan, following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's recent telephone call with the island's president that upset Beijing.

Ten vessels and 10 aircraft engaged in air-to-air, air-to-sea and sea-to-air combat drills that featured guided missiles, state broadcaster Chinese Central Television reported late on Thursday.

"This is the first time an aircraft carrier squadron has performed drills with live ammunition and real troops," it said.

China's Soviet-built Liaoning aircraft carrier and a formation of warships carried out aerial interception, anti-aircraft and anti-missile drills, in which Shenyang J-15 fighter jets carrying live missiles also participated, CCTV said.

It broadcast images of fighter jets taking off from the carrier, firing missiles and destroying a target at sea.

The Liaoning has participated in previous military exercises, including some in the South China Sea, but the country is still years off from perfecting carrier operations similar to those the United States has practiced for decades.

On Wednesday, a U.S. think tank said China had been installing anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems on artificial islands in the South China Sea, prompting China to defend its right to install military hardware there.

China's exercises aim to test the equipment and troop training levels, an unidentified navy official told the official China News Service.

Last December the Defence Ministry confirmed China was building a second aircraft carrier to go with the existing vessel, but its launch date is unclear.

Beijing could build multiple aircraft carriers over the next 15 years, the Pentagon said in a report last year.

China's successful operation of the Liaoning is the first step in what state media and some military experts believe will be the deployment of domestically built carriers by 2020.

(Reporting by Christian Shepherd and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Clarence Fernandez) ... SKBN1450E7
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby seemslikeadream » Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:59 pm


Donald Trump Makes Absurd Spelling Error On Twitter — And The Internet Is ROASTING Him For It!


LOLz! Seriously?!
We can think of something "unpresidented," Donald…

Trump posted a corrected tweet quickly (below), but the damage was done:

Donald J. TrumpVerified account
China steals United States Navy research drone in international waters - rips it out of water and takes it to China in unprecedented act.

…because the Internet ROASTED him over the mistake!!
Ch-ch-check out some of the best reactions to Trump's absurd mistake (below):

Brian Klaas ✔@brianklaas
It's totally #unpresidented having a president so smart he doesn't need intelligence briefings but so dumb he doesn't know how to spell.
9:21 AM - 17 Dec 2016

Emily McDowellVerified account
Someone should let Trump know that when a word in your tweet is underlined in red, it doesn't mean "tremendous word choice" #unpresidented

Michael Blackman ‏@ParaComedian09 5h5 hours ago
New study says Donald Trump has the same grasp on grammar as a fifth grader. Fifth graders worldwide offended. #unpresidented
18 replies 206 retweets 465 likes
Reply 18 Retweet 206

Regi Brittain @RegiBrittain
I'm sorry that I doubted him when he said he had the best words.#unpresidented
8:02 AM - 17 Dec 2016
565 565 Retweets 1,226 1,226 likes

Joe Grisso
#unpresidented (verb): to make one not the president anymore
Ex: the Electoral College should unpresident @realDonaldTrump on Monday

Great job, Donald, really… that Freudian slip was REALLY something.
Ha!!! ... FW0i7GZNE6
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:23 pm

China Warns Donald Trump Not to ‘Escalate’ North Korea Situation With Erratic Tweets

Charlie Campbell
1/4/2017 12:53 AM ET

For the closeted and choreographed Chinese Communist Party, Trump’s impulsive accusations are a growing cause of consternation

China has hit back at Donald Trump’s claim that Beijing isn’t doing enough to rein in rogue state North Korea, cautioning the U.S. President-elect not to “escalate” an already tense situation on the Korean Peninsula through his liberal use of social media.

On Monday evening, Trump took to Twitter to deny North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s claim that his nation was in the “final stage” of developing a nuclear-armed ballistic missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland. Trump then followed up with another tweet to say China wasn’t doing enough to temper the young despot’s belligerence.

“China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U.S. in totally one-sided trade, but won’t help with North Korea. Nice!” read the tweet.

In response, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a press briefing on Tuesday that his government’s efforts were “widely recognized,” and that “we hope all sides will avoid remarks and actions to escalate the situation.”

The Korean Peninsula is the latest source of friction between the incoming Trump Administration and China to be aired via the President-elect’s Twitter account.

Last month, Trump revealed he accepted a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in a breach of almost four decades of diplomatic protocol. Beijing still claims sovereignty over the self-governing island despite its effective split from the mainland in 1949 following China’s civil war.

Trump has also frequently used Twitter to accuse China of underhand trade practices like currency manipulation that he claims have forced American jobs oversees. The real estate mogul has nominated at least two hard-line China trade critics — Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro — to top posts in his Administration.

Regarding North Korea, Trump has a point: China is Pyongyang’s only friendly nation of note and accounts for 90% of its trade. The continued existence of North Korea is of strategic advantage to Beijing if the alternative is a unified Korean Peninsula administered by Seoul that is a staunch U.S. ally.

However, a belligerent, nuclear-armed North Korea isn’t in Beijing’s interests. This raises the temperature in East Asia and prompted South Korea to accept deployment of American THAAD antimissile batteries. Japan may soon follow.

“China’s relations with North Korea are complex and difficult,” writes Evans J.R. Revere in a report for the Brookings Institution in October. “But Beijing’s bottom line is that it is better to keep a troublesome North Korean ally afloat than to risk what might result if we push Pyongyang too hard.”

Nevertheless, in a bid to temper Kim’s aggression Beijing signed up to unprecedented U.N. sanctions in March following Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test. North Korean exports of coal and minerals have dropped as a result, though a fifth nuclear and several missile tests still followed.

According to a U.S.-Korea Institute report last year, “China’s cooperation [is] essential but with increasing tensions in the South China Sea, the U.S. rebalance to Asia, and South Korea’s decision to deploy THAAD, this can no longer be taken for granted.”

To truly bridle the Kim regime, the incoming U.S. President will have to work hard to assure Beijing that its strategic interests are not compromised by coming down tougher on North Korea. The question is: Does Trump’s baiting of China on Twitter render a difficult sell now impossible?
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby seemslikeadream » Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:33 pm

“This was way more yuge than I expected,” he wrote on Twitter.

note the fingers :jumping: :jumping:

A giant rooster sculpture resembling President-elect Donald J. Trump outside a shopping mall in Taiyuan, China. The statue was built to celebrate the coming Year of the Rooster in the Chinese lunar calendar.

Meet the pheasant-elect :jumping: :jumping:
People's Daily,China ✔@PDChina
Meet the pheasant-elect: Bird sporting 'Donald Trump's hairstyle' soars to internet fame in China
3:58 PM - 14 Nov 2016
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby seemslikeadream » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:33 am

Will China Go To War With US? Bomber Flown In South China Sea Before Donald Trump Inauguration

Donald Trump tweets China should keep the seized US drone
Flexing its military might less than a week before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, China reportedly flew one of its bombers over the Spratly Islands in the hotly contested South China Sea over the weekend, an anonymous US official told Reuters Tuesday.

The unnamed official said the flight could be a symbol of “strategic force” by China and that the most recent flight was the second of the year, with another occurring on Jan. 1.

Both along the campaign trail and since winning the Oval Office two months ago, Trump has routinely poked and prodded China over its economic and foreign policies via Twitter, causing a ruckus within the diplomatic community and raising questions over how the president-elect intends to work with the Asian superpower.

A week ago China’s state-run media agency blasted Trump’s use of Twitter for foreign policy, showing the powerful nation is tired of the billionaire’s tactics over social media rather than typical diplomatic back channeling.

Pentagon spokesperson and Commander Gary Ross told Reuters that he had no direct comment about the bomber’s movement but said: “we continue to observe a range of ongoing Chinese military activity in the region.

China flew its H-6 strategic bomber, also called the Xian H-6, which is a “copy” of the former Soviet Union’s Tupolev Tu-16 Badger bomber, and also took flight over the so-called “nine-dash Line” that China considers the boundary of its territorial waters, according to

The Spratly Islands are an archipelago of 14 islands that together make up only 1.5 square miles of area, but their location in the South China Sea represents billions in trade and enterprise as well as military control. The islands are between major global shipping channels as well as the Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei with China to the north.

Though not reported as related, China also sent its sole aircraft carrier to the Taiwan Strait Wednesday. Trump’s call with Taiwan’s president infuriated Beijing and has increased already heightened diplomatic tensions between the president-elect and China. ... on-2473773
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Re: The Coming War on China

Postby seemslikeadream » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:29 pm

China expert: Tillerson's plan for the South China Sea would 'certainly end up in a shooting war with China'

Alex Lockie
President-elect Donald Trump's secretary of state nominee, Rex Tillerson, made waves internationally on Thursday by suggesting that the US should "send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops, and second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed."

Suggesting China stop its building of artificial islands and militarizing them doesn't sharply break with the policy of President Barack Obama's administration, but suggesting a blockade — or forcefully stopping China from sailing to its land features in the South China Sea — does.

China's response, at first muted, has come back strong, with Chinese media saying that "unless Washington plans to wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea, any other approaches to prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish."

"Tillerson had better bone up on nuclear power strategies if he wants to force a big nuclear power to withdraw from its own territories," the Global Times wrote in an editorial.

Bonnie Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also questioned Tillerson's depth of knowledge about the South China Sea.

"Some of the things Tillerson said were contradictory," Glaser told Business Insider.

map south china sea Reuters
"He was not speaking with notes in front of him, and this is not an issue I think he is very well versed in. He may know oil in the South China Sea, but I'm hearing from some people on the transition team that he misspoke," said Glaser, alluding to Tillerson's time as CEO of the energy giant Exxon Mobil.

Glaser pointed to the more measured statements on the South China Sea before the Senate Armed Services Committee from retired Gen. James Mattis, Trump's defense secretary nominee, as evidence that Tillerson went too far.

"The bottom line is the international waters are international waters, and we have got to figure out how do we deal with holding on to the kind of rules that we have made over many years," Mattis said on Thursday.

Tillerson seems to want to stop China from operating in international waters.

And his testimony contained a major contradiction, Glaser said.

"Tillerson did say that there would not be any change to the US position on recognizing China's sovereignty on land features in the South China Sea," Glaser told Business Insider. "If we don't object to China's land claims, do we have a legal right to deny China access to its sovereign territory?"

Furthermore, if the US tried to blockade China from the islands in the South China Sea, "that position would result in conflict," Glaser said.

If the US were to place "a cordon of ships around one or all of the islands, and the Chinese flew in aircraft to one of their new islands, what are we going to do? Shoot it down?" Glaser said. "We'd certainly end up in a shooting war with China."

China air force j-11
Short of shooting the planes and killing the pilots, what would stop Chinese aircraft from landing on Beijing's claimed islands in the South China Sea? Xinhuanet

However, some legal experts side with Tillerson. In a piece published Thursday in Lawfare, James Kraska of the Naval War College wrote this:

"China's interference with US warships and military aircraft in the South China Sea constitute a breach of its legal obligations under UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) and customary international law and are internationally wrongful acts within the law of state responsibility. In such law, injured states are entitled to take lawful countermeasures to induce compliance, such as withholding recognition of China's right to freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea to block access to its islands."

But both Glaser and outgoing US Secretary of State John Kerry believe the US will take a more peaceful approach than outlined by Tillerson.

Speaking at a university in Ho Chi Min, Vietnam, Reuters reported that Kerry said all countries should "refrain from acts that add to tensions, or might lead to greater militarization of the area. And as we oppose cohesion, or the threat of force by any state to assert it's claims over an other, we will, I am confident with the next administration, continue to adhere to the same good faith to the policy I just articulated."

So while some legal basis may justify a huge US naval presence in the South China Sea blocking Beijing from its claimed islands, experts on the US and Chinese sides agree that such a measure could mean war between advanced world powers with nuclear capabilities.

Business Insider reached out to the Trump transition team about Tillerson's comments on the South China Sea and will update this story with any response. ... war-2017-1
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