Qatar

[BenDhyan]

What is behind the sudden outing of Qatar as a terrorist haven by the US and Sunni Arab states?

Clearly some anii-american propaganda in this article, but at least here is a perspective that has possibly nailed some of the reasons..

Terrorism Supporters in Washington and Riyadh Close Ranks Against Qatar

The real Saudi-US (and Israeli) grievances are Qatar's patronage of Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and al-Jazeera

Tue, Jun 13, 2017

The United States has been using lies to go to war since 1846, when Americans who believed in manifest destiny sought to expand to the Pacific Ocean at the expense of Mexico, acquiring by force of arms California and what were to become the southwestern states.

In 1898 the U.S. picked up the pieces of a dying Spanish Empire in a war that was driven by American imperialists and the yellow dog reporting of the Hearst Newspaper chain. And then came World War 1, World War 2, and Korea, all avoidable and all enabled by deliberate lying coming out of Washington.

More recently, we have seen Vietnam with its Gulf of Tonkin fabrication, Granada and Panama with palpably ridiculous pretexts for war, Iraq with its nonexistent weapons of mass destruction, Afghanistan with its lies about bin Laden, Libya and its false claims about Gaddafi, and most recently Syria and Iran with allegations of an Iranian threat to the United States and lies about Syrian use of barrel bombs and chemical weapons.

And if one adds in the warnings to Russia over Ukraine, a conflict generated by Washington when it brought about regime change in Kiev, you have a tissue of lies that span the globe and bring with them never-ending conflict to advance the American imperium.

So lies go with the American Way of War, but the latest twist and turns in the Middle East are bizarre even by Washington’s admittedly low standards of rectitude.

On the 5th of June, Saudi Arabia led a gaggle of Arab and Muslim nations that included the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain to cut off all diplomatic, commercial and transport links with Qatar, effectively blockading it.

Qatar is currently isolated from its neighbors, subject to sanctions, and there have even been Saudi threats of going to war against its tiny neighbor. Salman al-Ansari, the president of the Saudi American Public Relation Affairs Committee, even tweeted:

“To the emir of Qatar, regarding your alignment with the extremist government of Iran and your abuse of the Custodian of the two sacred mosques, I would like to remind you that Mohammed Morsi [of Egypt] did exactly the same and was then toppled and imprisoned.”

It is the second time the Saudis have moved against Qatar. Two years ago, there was a break in diplomatic relations, but they were eventually restored. This time, the principal allegation being directed against Qatar by Riyadh is that it supports terrorism.

The terrorist groups that it allegedly embraces are Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood, Morsi’s affiliation. Hezbollah and Hamas are close to Iran which is perhaps the real reason for their being singled out as many would call them resistance movements or even legitimate political parties rather than terrorists.

And the Iran connection is critical as Qatar has been under fire for allegedly saying nice things about trying to respect and get along with Tehran, undoubtedly somewhat motivated by its joint exploitation with Iran of a vast gas field in the Persian Gulf.

Qatar’s ownership of al-Jazeera also has been a sore point with the Saudis and other Gulf states as its reporting has often been critical of developments in the region, criticisms that have often rankled the Saudi monarchy and the Egyptians. It has been accused of spreading propaganda for “militant groups.”

One of the Saudi demands to permit Qatar to again become a “normal” Arab Gulf state would be to close down the network.

The terrorism claims by the Saudis are, of course, hypocritical. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are well known as sponsors of Salafist terrorism, including the funding and arming of groups like ISIS and the various al-Qaeda franchises, to include al-Nusra.

Much of the money admittedly comes from private individuals and is often channeled through Islamic charities, but both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been extremely lax in their enforcement of anti-terror and money laundering regulations. In a 2009 State Department memo signed off on by Hillary Clinton it was stated that “donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide.” Qatar, meanwhile, has been described as a “permissive environment for terrorist financing.”

The Saudis also have considerable blood on their hands by way of their genocidal assault on neighboring Yemen. In addition, the Saudi Royal House has served as the principal propagator of Wahhabism, the virulently fundamentalist version of Islam that provides a form of religious legitimacy to terror while also motivating many young Muslims to join radical groups.

The falling out of two Gulf Arab regimes might be a matter of relatively little importance but for the unnecessary intervention of President Donald Trump in the quarrel. He has taken credit for the burgeoning conflict, implying that his recent visit to the region set the stage for the ostracizing of Qatar.

His twitter on the affair, posted on June 6th, read “So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off. They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!” And he again came down on Qatar on June 9th during a press conference.

Trump’s tweets might well be regarded as simply maladroit, driven by ignorance, but they could also provide a glimpse of a broader agenda.

While in the Middle East, Trump was bombarded with anti-Iranian propaganda coming from both Israel and the Saudis. An escalation of hostilities with the intention of starting an actual war involving the United States to take down Iran is not unimaginable, particularly as the Israelis, who have already endorsed the Saudi moves, have been arguing that option and lying about the threat posed by Tehran for a number of years.

A war against Iran would be very popular both with the U.S. congress and the mainstream media, so it would be easy to sell to the American public.

The terrorist attack in Tehran on June 6th that killed 17 is being blamed in some Iranian circles on the Saudis, a not unreasonable assumption. ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack but it must also be observed that both the Saudis and Israelis have good connections with the terrorist group.

But if the possibility of a possible Saudi hand is true or even plausibly so, it guarantees a rise in tension and an incident at sea could easily be contrived by either side to escalate into a shooting war. The United States would almost inevitably be drawn in, particularly in light of Trump’s ridiculous comment on the tragedy, tweeting that Iran is“falling victim to the evil they promote.”

There is also other considerable collateral damage to be reckoned with as a consequence of the Trump intervention even if war can be avoided. Qatar hosts the al-Udeid airbase, the largest in the Middle East, which is home to 10,000 U.S. servicemen and serves as the Combined Air and Space Operations Center for Washington and its allies in the region and beyond.

Now the United States finds itself squarely in the middle of a fight between two alleged friends that it doesn’t have to involve itself in, an intervention that will produce nothing but bad results.

Backing Saudi Arabia in this quarrel serves no conceivable American interest, particularly if the ultimate objective is to strike at a non-threatening Iran. So the fallback position is to lie about what the support for the aggressive Saudi posturing really means – it is alleged to be about terrorism, which is always a popular excuse for government overreach.

And the ultimate irony is that when it comes to terrorism the United States itself does not emerge without fault. As early as 2011, the U.S. was arming Syrian dissidents from the arsenals in Libya, flying in weapons to Turkey to hand over to the rebels.

Many of the weapons, as well as those provided to Iraqi forces, have wound up in the hands of ISIS and al-Nusrah. U.S. advisers training rebels have conceded that it is impossible to determine the politics of many of those receiving instruction and weapons, an observation that has also been made by the Obama White House and by his State Department.

So watch the lies if you want to know when the next war is coming. If the House of Saud, the Israelis and Donald Trump are talking trash and seem to agree about something then it is time to head for the bomb shelter. Will it be Iran or an escalating catastrophe in Syria? Anything is possible.

The terrorist groups that it allegedly embraces are Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood, Morsi’s affiliation. Hezbollah and Hamas are close to Iran which is perhaps the real reason for their being singled out as many would call them resistance movements or even legitimate political parties rather than terrorists.

And the Iran connection is critical as Qatar has been under fire for allegedly saying nice things about trying to respect and get along with Tehran, undoubtedly somewhat motivated by its joint exploitation with Iran of a vast gas field in the Persian Gulf.

Qatar’s ownership of al-Jazeera also has been a sore point with the Saudis and other Gulf states as its reporting has often been critical of developments in the region, criticisms that have often rankled the Saudi monarchy and the Egyptians. It has been accused of spreading propaganda for “militant groups.”

One of the Saudi demands to permit Qatar to again become a “normal” Arab Gulf state would be to close down the network.

The terrorism claims by the Saudis are, of course, hypocritical. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are well known as sponsors of Salafist terrorism, including the funding and arming of groups like ISIS and the various al-Qaeda franchises, to include al-Nusra.

Much of the money admittedly comes from private individuals and is often channeled through Islamic charities, but both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been extremely lax in their enforcement of anti-terror and money laundering regulations. In a 2009 State Department memo signed off on by Hillary Clinton it was stated that “donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide.” Qatar, meanwhile, has been described as a “permissive environment for terrorist financing.”

The Saudis also have considerable blood on their hands by way of their genocidal assault on neighboring Yemen. In addition, the Saudi Royal House has served as the principal propagator of Wahhabism, the virulently fundamentalist version of Islam that provides a form of religious legitimacy to terror while also motivating many young Muslims to join radical groups.

The falling out of two Gulf Arab regimes might be a matter of relatively little importance but for the unnecessary intervention of President Donald Trump in the quarrel. He has taken credit for the burgeoning conflict, implying that his recent visit to the region set the stage for the ostracizing of Qatar.

His twitter on the affair, posted on June 6th, read “So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off. They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!” And he again came down on Qatar on June 9th during a press conference.

Trump’s tweets might well be regarded as simply maladroit, driven by ignorance, but they could also provide a glimpse of a broader agenda.

While in the Middle East, Trump was bombarded with anti-Iranian propaganda coming from both Israel and the Saudis. An escalation of hostilities with the intention of starting an actual war involving the United States to take down Iran is not unimaginable, particularly as the Israelis, who have already endorsed the Saudi moves, have been arguing that option and lying about the threat posed by Tehran for a number of years.

A war against Iran would be very popular both with the U.S. congress and the mainstream media, so it would be easy to sell to the American public.

The terrorist attack in Tehran on June 6th that killed 17 is being blamed in some Iranian circles on the Saudis, a not unreasonable assumption. ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack but it must also be observed that both the Saudis and Israelis have good connections with the terrorist group.

But if the possibility of a possible Saudi hand is true or even plausibly so, it guarantees a rise in tension and an incident at sea could easily be contrived by either side to escalate into a shooting war. The United States would almost inevitably be drawn in, particularly in light of Trump’s ridiculous comment on the tragedy, tweeting that Iran is“falling victim to the evil they promote.”

There is also other considerable collateral damage to be reckoned with as a consequence of the Trump intervention even if war can be avoided. Qatar hosts the al-Udeid airbase, the largest in the Middle East, which is home to 10,000 U.S. servicemen and serves as the Combined Air and Space Operations Center for Washington and its allies in the region and beyond.

Now the United States finds itself squarely in the middle of a fight between two alleged friends that it doesn’t have to involve itself in, an intervention that will produce nothing but bad results.

Backing Saudi Arabia in this quarrel serves no conceivable American interest, particularly if the ultimate objective is to strike at a non-threatening Iran. So the fallback position is to lie about what the support for the aggressive Saudi posturing really means – it is alleged to be about terrorism, which is always a popular excuse for government overreach.

And the ultimate irony is that when it comes to terrorism the United States itself does not emerge without fault. As early as 2011, the U.S. was arming Syrian dissidents from the arsenals in Libya, flying in weapons to Turkey to hand over to the rebels.

Many of the weapons, as well as those provided to Iraqi forces, have wound up in the hands of ISIS and al-Nusrah. U.S. advisers training rebels have conceded that it is impossible to determine the politics of many of those receiving instruction and weapons, an observation that has also been made by the Obama White House and by his State Department.

So watch the lies if you want to know when the next war is coming. If the House of Saud, the Israelis and Donald Trump are talking trash and seem to agree about something then it is time to head for the bomb shelter. Will it be Iran or an escalating catastrophe in Syria? Anything is possible.

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/terrorism-supporters-washington-and-riyadh-close-ranks-against-qatar/ri20089?utm_campaign=related-articles&utm_source=/en/politics/terrorism-supporters-washington-and-riyadh-close-ranks-against-qatar/ri20089

[seemslikeadream]

This is the real story behind the economic crisis unfolding in Qatar
Only Shakespeare’s plays could come close to describing such treachery – the comedies, of course

Robert Fisk @indyvoices 5 hours ago


Doha, Qatar. The nation is now embroiled in a diplomatic and economic crisis – but what part is Saudi Arabia playing in stoking that crisis? Reuters
The Qatar crisis proves two things: the continued infantilisation of the Arab states, and the total collapse of the Sunni Muslim unity supposedly created by Donald Trump’s preposterous attendance at the Saudi Muslim summit two weeks ago.

After promising to fight to the death against Shia Iranian “terror”, Saudi Arabia and its closest chums have now ganged up on one of the wealthiest of their neighbours, Qatar, for being a fountainhead of “terror”. Only Shakespeare’s plays could come close to describing such treachery. Shakespeare’s comedies, of course.

For, truly, there is something vastly fantastical about this charade. Qatar’s citizens have certainly contributed to Isis. But so have Saudi Arabia’s citizens. No Qataris flew the 9/11 planes into New York and Washington. All but four of the 19 killers were Saudi. Bin Laden was not a Qatari. He was a Saudi. But Bin Laden favoured Qatar’s al-Jazeera channel with his personal broadcasts, and it was al-Jazeera who tried to give spurious morality to the al-Qaeda/Jabhat al-Nusrah desperadoes of Syria by allowing their leader hours of free airtime to explain what a moderate, peace-loving group they all were.

Saudi Arabia cuts ties with Qatar over terror links
First, let’s just get rid of the hysterically funny bits of this story. I see that Yemen is breaking air links with Qatar. Quite a shock for the poor Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, since Yemen – under constant bombardment by his former Saudi and Emirati chums – doesn’t have a single serviceable airliner left with which to create, let alone break, an air link.

The Maldives have also broken relations with Qatar. Be sure this has nothing to do with the recent promise of a Saudi five-year loan facility of $300m to the Maldives, the proposal of a Saudi property company to invest $100m in a family resort in the Maldives and a promise by Saudi Islamic scholars to spend $100,000 on 10 “world class” mosques in the Maldives. And let us not mention the rather large number of Isis and other Islamist cultists who arrived to fight for Isis in Iraq and Syria from – well, the Maldives.

Now the Qatari emir hasn’t enough troops to defend his little country should the Saudis decide to request him to ask their army to enter Qatar to restore stability – as the Saudis persuaded the King of Bahrain to do back in 2011. But Sheikh Tamim no doubt hopes that the massive US military air base in Qatar will deter such Saudi generosity. When I asked his father, Sheikh Hamad (later uncharitably deposed by Tamim) why he didn’t kick the Americans out of Qatar, he replied: “Because if I did, my Arab brothers would invade me.”

Like father, like son, I suppose. God Bless America.


All this started – so we are supposed to believe – with an alleged hacking of the Qatar News Agency, which produced some uncomplimentary but distressingly truthful remarks by Qatar’s emir about the need to maintain a relationship with Iran.

Qatar denied the veracity of the story. The Saudis decided it was true and broadcast the contents on their own normally staid (and immensely boring) state television network. The upstart emir, so went the message, had gone too far this time. The Saudis decided policy in the Gulf, not miniscule Qatar. Wasn’t that what Donald Trump’s visit proved?

But the Saudis had other problems to worry about. Kuwait, far from cutting relations with Qatar, is now acting as a peacemaker between Qatar and the Saudis and Emiratis. The emirate of Dubai is quite close to Iran and has tens of thousands of Iranian expatriates, and is hardly following Abu Dhabi’s example of anti-Qatari wrath. Oman was even staging joint naval manoeuvres with Iran a couple of months ago. Pakistan long ago declined to send its army to help the Saudis in Yemen because the Saudis asked for only Sunni soldiers and no Shia soldiers; the Pakistani army was understandably outraged to realise that Saudi Arabia was trying to sectarianise its military personnel. Pakistan’s former army commander, General Raheel Sharif, is rumoured to be about to resign as head of the Saudi-sponsored Muslim alliance to fight “terror”.

President-Field Marshal al-Sissi of Egypt has been roaring against Qatar for its support of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood – and Qatar does indeed support the now banned group which Sissi is falsely claiming to be part of Isis – but significantly Egypt too, though the recipient of Saudi millions, does not intend to supply its own troops to bolster the Saudis in its catastrophic Yemen war. Besides, Sissi needs his Egyptian soldiers at home to fight off Isis attacks and maintain, along with Israel, the siege of the Palestinian Gaza Strip.

But if we look a bit further down the road, it’s not difficult to see what really worries the Saudis. For Qatar also maintains quiet links with the Assad regime. It helped secure the release of Syrian Christian nuns in Jabhat al-Nusrah hands and has helped release Lebanese soldiers from Isis hands in western Syria. When the nuns emerged from captivity, they thanked both Bashar al-Assad and Qatar. And there are growing suspicions in the Gulf that Qatar has much larger ambitions: to fund the rebuilding of post-war Syria. Even if Assad remained as president, Syria’s debt to Qatar would place the nation under Qatari economic control.

And this would give tiny Qatar two golden rewards. It would give it a land empire to match its al-Jazeera media empire. And it would extend its largesse to the Syrian territories which many oil companies would like to use as a pipeline route from the Gulf to Europe via Turkey or via tankers from the Syrian port of Lattakia. For Europeans, such a route would reduce the chances of Russian oil blackmail, and make sea-going oil routes less vulnerable if vessels did not have to move through the Gulf of Hormuz.

So rich pickings for Qatar – or for Saudi Arabia, of course, if the assumptions on US power of the two emirs, Hamad and Tamim, prove worthless. A Saudi military force in Qatar would allow Riyadh to gobble up all the liquid gas in the emirate. But surely the peace-loving “anti-terror” Saudis – let’s forget the head-chopping for a moment – would never contemplate such a fate for an Arab brother.

So let’s hope that for the moment, the routes of Qatar Airways are the only parts of the Qatari body politic to get chopped off.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/qat ... 78616.html

Qatar to Sign Deal for U.S. F-15s, Sources Say as Gulf Crisis Continues
by Anthony Capaccio
June 14, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... -continues

What’s Happening in the Persian Gulf

by Derek Davison

Early Monday morning, five Arab states—Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen—along with the Maldives, broke all diplomatic and physical ties with the Persian Gulf emirate of Qatar. All six countries say they are withdrawing their diplomats from Qatar within 48 hours and expect Qatari diplomats to reciprocate within the same time frame, and other Qatari nationals in those countries have two weeks to leave. Those countries have also cut all land, sea, and air contact with Qatar—meaning, among other things, that Qatar’s land border with Saudi Arabia is now closed, airlines from those six countries will no longer fly into Qatar, and Qatar Airways flights have been barred from their airspace.

In its official statement explaining this move, Riyadh noted Qatar’s “grave violations” against Saudi Arabia and Bahrain:

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has taken this decisive decision as a result of grave violations being committed by the authorities in Doha over the past years in secret and public aiming at dividing internal Saudi ranks, instigating against the State, infringing on its sovereignty, adopting various terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at destabilising the region including the Muslim Brotherhood Group, Daesh (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda, promoting the ethics and plans of these groups through its media permanently, supporting the activities of Iranian-backed terrorist groups in the governorate of Qatif of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom of Bahrain, financing, adopting and sheltering extremists who seek to undermine the stability and unity of the homeland at home and abroad, and using the media that seek to fuel the strife internally; and it was clear to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia the support and backing from the authorities in Doha for coup Al-Houthi militias even after the announcement of the Coalition to Support the Legitimacy in Yemen.
The Kingdom has also taken this decision in solidarity with the Kingdom of Bahrain being subjected to terrorist campaigns and operations supported by the authorities in Doha.
The statement offered no evidence in support of these charges, only one of which (Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood) is well documented. The charge that Doha has been aiding Houthi militants in Yemen is particularly interesting given that Qatari soldiers have been participating in, and reportedly suffering on behalf of, the Saudi-led, anti-Houthi military coalition. In response, Qatar’s government declared that there was “no legitimate justification” for this move and argued that it was an effort to “impose guardianship” on Qatar and thus was a “violation of its sovereignty.”

This is a fast-developing story, but certain core elements of it appear to have taken shape.

A History of Shaky Relations

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have had a love-hate relationship for over two decades—a fact acknowledged in Monday’s statement from Riyadh: “Since 1995, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its brothers have made strenuous and continued efforts to urge the authorities in Doha to abide by its commitments and agreements.” The Saudis didn’t select that date at random. In 1995, the former Emir of Qatar, Hamad b. Khalifa Al Thani, overthrew his father, Khalifa b. Hamad Al Thani, in a bloodless coup. Sheikh Hamad abdicated in 2013 in favor of his son, Tamim, who is the current Qatari ruler. Hamad’s decision to maintain friendly relations with Israel (Qatar broke off those relations over the 2009 Gaza War) was a source of tension with the Saudis. For several years the two countries also disputed the precise location of their land border, before finally reaching an agreement on its location in 2008. Monday’s events come out of this years-long tension.

The immediate cause of the diplomatic break can be traced back to the 2011 Arab Spring. Unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which quickly opposed any revolutionary movements that threatened established Arab autocracies, Qatar decided to bet on the revolutionaries and used some of its vast fossil-fuel wealth to support them. In particular, Sheikh Hamad decided to throw its weight behind Muslim Brotherhood movements in Egypt, Libya, and elsewhere, building off of his long-standing support for Brotherhood branches around the Arab world, including Hamas. This represented a radical shift from Hamad’s previous “no problems” foreign policy, which presumably reflected Hamad’s desire to increase Qatar’s prominence on the geopolitical stage commensurate with its financial clout. Under Hamad, and then Tamim, Qatar has adopted a number of foreign policies that have at times, placed it at odds with its fellow Gulf states:

Qatar was an early supporter of Egypt’s Arab Spring uprising and the elected Muslim Brotherhood-led government that succeeded former dictator Hosni Mubarak. Doha pumped an estimated $10 billion into Mohamed Morsi’s government and lined up deals to sell natural gas to Egypt and help rebuild the Suez Canal. In contrast, Riyadh, which loathes the Muslim Brotherhood, has poured at least $12 billion into Egyptian coffers since the military coup that overthrew Morsi and brought Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to power in 2013. Qatar’s support for Morsi explains why the Saudis initiated this boycott and why Egypt joined it.
Qatar supported the now-defunct General National Congress in Libya. The Islamist GNC, based in Tripoli was one of two competing governments, alongside the House of Representatives based in Tobruk, that contested control of Libya after the Arab Spring-driven fall of Muammar Gaddafi. It has since been driven mostly out of the picture by the country’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord, also based in Tripoli. The UAE, in contrast, supported and continues to support the secularist Tobruk government (which has also announced that it has broken off ties with Qatar, but since it’s not a recognized government the impact of that decision is minimal). For a time the two Gulf states were effectively fighting a proxy war in Libya that helped destabilize that country and contributed to tensions in the Gulf.
Qatar has also played an active role supporting and arming Syrian rebel groups, including—allegedly—extremist groups like the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front (also known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and even the Islamic State (ISIS or IS). It’s possible that this has contributed to inter-Gulf tensions. But as the Saudis have allegedly been supporting these same rebel groups it’s hard to see what the problem would have been. However, in April, Qatar was reportedly behind a negotiated settlement to evacuate four besieged Syrian towns, a deal Doha reportedly reached through negotiations with Iran. Qatar’s cordial relationship with Iran, in addition to its support for the Muslim Brotherhood, is one of Riyadh’s chief grievances.
Qatar has also long supported Hamas, whose biggest foreign patron has consistently been Iran. And with the Saudis coming together with Israel over their shared hostility toward Iran, Riyadh would certainly not have viewed that support for Hamas favorably.
There’s one other elephant in this room, which is Qatar’s support of the Al Jazeera network. The Saudis and Emiratis in particular have long criticized the news channel for promoting Muslim Brotherhood voices and for criticizing the policies of other Gulf states. After announcing the diplomatic cut off on Monday, Riyadh shut down Al Jazeera’s local offices.

This is not the first time these tensions have come to a boiling point. In March 2014, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE cut diplomatic ties with Qatar over Doha’s support for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. They did not sever land, sea, and air contacts with Qatar, but it did take eight months for relations to finally be restored. More recently, the Saudis and Emiratis objected to alleged remarks given by Sheikh Tamim at a commencement ceremony, in which the Qatari Emir was said to have spoken favorably of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas while denigrating Saudi and American foreign policy. Although the Qatar News Agency reported this speech, the Qataris insist that QNA was hacked and that the speech never took place. Nonetheless, both Saudi and Emirati state media have reported on the speech and expressed anger over its contents, apparently refusing to believe Qatar’s hacking explanation.

The Washington Factor

Monday’s diplomatic crisis also has roots in President Donald Trump’s recent visit to Riyadh. During his trip, Trump fully embraced the Saudis’ anti-Iran, anti-political Islamist view of the region, and that support has emboldened the Saudis to take a harder line against Arab states that deviate from their foreign policy aims:

“You have a shift in the balance of power in the Gulf now because of the new presidency: Trump is strongly opposed to political Islam and Iran,” said Jean-Marc Rickli, head of global risk and resilience at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.
“He is totally aligned with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, who also want no compromise with either Iran or the political Islam promoted by the Muslim Brotherhood.”
The Trump administration has had little to say about the dispute apart from calling for dialogue and offering to mediate between the Saudis and Qataris. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that this diplomatic rupture shouldn’t have “any significant impact” on U.S. counter-terrorism efforts, but it’s difficult to know how he can determine that at this point. The centerpiece of Trump’s Riyadh visit was supposed to be the creation of a broad coalition of Islamic states working together to combat extremism and terrorism. That coalition is already falling apart a scant two weeks after Trump’s trip. The U.S. military said Monday that it has no plans to change its posture in Qatar, where the al-Udeid air base is one of U.S. Central Command’s primary forward operating bases.

Additionally, it’s hard to avoid connecting Monday’s events with revelations over the weekend about the hacking of Yousef al-Otaiba’s personal email. Emails leaked to The Intercept and Huffington Post show that Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the U.S., who was once profiled by Huffington for his “extraordinary influence” in Washington, has been lobbying the Trump administration to break America’s long-standing alliance with Qatar. From Huffington’s report on the leak:

In private correspondence, Otaiba ? an extremely powerful figure in Washington, D.C., who is reportedly in “in almost constant phone and email contact,” with Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s adviser and son-in-law ? is seen pushing for the U.S. to close down its military base in Qatar and otherwise poking at issues that could drive a wedge between the U.S. and that Arab nation. He also says that his country’s de facto ruler is supportive of a wave of anti-Qatar criticism in the U.S. that the Gulf state last month called a smear campaign and that has prompted behind-the-scenes alarm inside the U.S. government.
The leaked emails also suggest that Otaiba has had a close, ongoing relationship with the pro-Israel think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), including collaboration on anti-Qatar policymaking:

The emails detail the proposed agenda of an upcoming meeting between FDD and UAE government officials that is scheduled for June 11-14. Dubowitz and Hannah are listed as attending, as well as Jonathan Schanzer, FDD vice president for research. UAE officials requested for meetings include Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince who commands the armed forces.
The agenda includes extensive discussion between the two on Qatar. They are scheduled to discuss, for instance, “Al Jazeera as an instrument of regional instability.” (Al Jazeera is based in Qatar.)
On Monday afternoon, Buzzfeed’s Borzhou Daragahi tweeted that “two separate sources” had told him that Monday’s diplomatic moves were “driven by” that upcoming FDD/UAE conference. Given FDD’s staunchly pro-Israel orientation and Qatar’s ties to Hamas, this collaboration over mutual antipathy toward Doha is unsurprising.

What Happens Now

As noted above, the last time a diplomatic rupture with Qatar occurred it took eight months to repair relations. But this rupture seems more serious—for one thing, more countries are involved, and for another the countries in question have also cut off all physical contact with Qatar in addition to diplomatic contact. In the near term, it may be difficult for the Qataris to move around, to export their natural gas, and even to obtain food, since much of Qatar’s imported food comes overland via the Saudi border. Indeed, there are already stories of people making runs on Qatari grocery stores.

In the longer term, it will be difficult for the Saudis and others to completely isolate Qatar internationally. The Qataris have good relations with several international and regional powers, including the U.S., but also Russia, the European Union, and Turkey, with which it has a defense agreement. And if things really get rough, Doha has a diplomatic “nuclear option,” which is to place itself under Iranian protection. Tehran has already called for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and has offered to send food to Qatar if needed. Qatar’s enormous fossil fuel wealth is another factor that would make it hard to isolate the emirate for very long. It’s already not clear whether any other nations will join the six that have already severed ties with Qatar. It’s doubtful that even the two remaining Gulf Cooperation Council members, Kuwait and Oman, will join in.

The ultimate Saudi goal here is as yet unknown. Riyadh may want Qatar to sever its relations with Iran altogether and/or take tangible steps to divest itself of any ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. It may want Qatar to shut down Al Jazeera. Or it may want something more drastic. Last week, Salman al-Ansari, president of the Saudi American Public Relation Affairs Committee in Washington, seemed to warn Sheikh Tamim via Twitter that he could wind up like ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi over Qatar’s relations with Iran and the Saudis.

And, again, the official Saudi statement and its mention of “1995” as the year Riyadh’s troubles with Doha began was not random. The Saudis are quite clearly identifying Qatar’s current emir and his predecessor as the problem, and there’s an unsubtle message there for others in Qatar who might be interested in finding a solution. The Saudis allegedly attempted to interfere in Qatari dynastic politics once before. In 1996, there was an attempt to place Khalifa b. Hamad Al Thani back on the Qatari throne allegedly with some level of Saudi and Emirati support. It could be that Riyadh is attempting once more to engineer a political change in Doha.

Photo: Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar
http://lobelog.com/whats-happening-in-the-persian-gulf/

Qatar-Gulf Crisis: Geoeconomic Implications

by Jim Lobe

In light of the fast-moving events in the Gulf over the past couple of days, LobeLog interviewed Sara Vakhshouri, a Gulf expert who specializes in the region’s energy markets. A long-time contributor to LobeLog, Vakhshouri is president of SVB Energy International, a Washington-based strategic energy consulting firm that provides critical advice on the global energy market to private companies, governments, think tanks, investment banks, and media organizations.

Jim Lobe: You indicated in a tweet on Tuesday that Iran stands to gain a lot from the Saudi-led actions against Qatar. In what ways is it likely that Iran can or will take advantage of this turn of events?

Sara Vakhshouri: Even though historically there have been differences and disagreements between Qatar and Saudi Arabia particularly with regard to their foreign policy and approach toward the conflicted areas in the region, the current diplomatic rift between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is unprecedented. Any rift between the GCC members weakens the Arab nations particularly Saudi Arabia’s policy and approach toward/against Iran.

The current conflict between Saudi and Qatar also drags other Arab countries in to this game; UAE, Egypt and Bahrain have supported the Qatari isolation. This again weakens the ties between the Arab nations and GCC members, which again reduces the influence and effectiveness of GCC policies, especially those against Iran.

While I don’t think that Iran sees this as an opportunity to poke or provoke Saudi Arabia, the current situation creates a strategic opportunity for Iran to weaken the ties among GCC members and to have an impact on Saudi Arab alliances against Iran and Iran’s interest in the region.

The current situation could also offers economic profits for Iran. Saudi Arabia revoked Qatar Airways license to fly over or land in Saudi Arabia. Iranian officials estimate that this could increase Qatar Airways’ use of Iranian airspace up to 20%, which means higher air transit income for Iran. In addition, the 40% of Qatar’s food supplies that come from Saudi Arabia could be replaced by Iran. It’s the closest and most available logistic partner Qatar could chose for supplying its immediate needs.

JL: But is there some risk undertaken by Qatar if it does move closer or become more dependent on Iran as a result of this crisis?

SV: Even though there has been a close relation between Qatar and Iran and, on the other side, historical disagreement with Saudi and its Arab allies, most of Qatar’s strategic depth is located alongside the Saudi Arabia and UAE borders. Also, the historical, cultural, economic, trade and energy ties between Qatar and other GCC members make it hard to imagine that the current status quo would last long. With the help of other Arab nations this conflict would most likely be resolved soon. Qataris realize that the price of choosing Iran could well be the loss if its Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia. The largest US military base in Middle East is located in Qatar. By getting very close to Iran and directly defying Saudi Arabia, Qatar will damage its relation with US especially under the Trump administration.

This mostly looks like a strong message from Saudi Arabia to anyone who wants to have close ties with and benefit from its relation with the Kingdom. The Saudi government has invested significantly in its relations and alliances with different Arab and non-Arab countries. Qatar’s isolation is a strong message that any country that chooses to go against Saudi interests in the region will pay a heavy price—the complete disconnect from any relations or any commercial and political ties with Saudi and its Arab allies.

The current Saudi attitude is very much like the US approach toward those countries that are threatening its national interest. It seems that the new leadership in Saudi Arabia has put an end to one-sided investments in its relations with other countries and is very keen to make sure they receive a return on every dime they invest outside their borders. The kingdom’s new approach to pursuing its national interest is to form and invest in alliances and determine whether their allies comply with their conditions.

In this case, even though they support Saudi policy, the UAE and Egypt are heavily reliant on gas imports from Qatar. Yet, they are still backing Saudi Arabia in isolating Qatar. One-third of Egyptian LNG imports used to meet the country’s electricity demands, for example, is imported from Qatar.

JL: What geo-economic implications are there to this crisis, particularly with respect to the regional and global energy perspective?

SV: We do not expect that Qatar’s LNG supply to non-Arab consumers will be interrupted, but the change of trade flow and replacement of natural gas exports to UAE could have an impact on LNG prices. UAE imports about 1.8 billion cubic feet/day of gas from Qatar via the Dolphin pipeline. This is a significant volume. Even though there is no shortage of supplies in the LNG market, which is bearish at the moment, replacing the amount that Qatar supplies with non-Qatari LNG could have an impact on global prices.

Egypt’s story is different, even though this country is heavily dependent on its LNG imports from Qatar. Egypt has no direct deals with Qatar, as traders like Glencore, Vitol, and Trafigura not only deliver the Qatari LNG to Egypt but also have legal ownership of the cargo from the time it is onloaded at Qatar’s port until its delivery. These traders can also replace Qatar’s LNG with non-Qatari LNG in deliveries to Egypt, if necessary.

JL: Given the fact that Iran and Qatar share a hugely productive gas field, Tehran presumably considers Qatar’s fate much more important to its national interest than Bahrain, for example. Do you think that Tehran would react more aggressively if the Saudis actually intervene militarily or support a coup in Qatar in order to make it much more responsive to Saudi interests?

SV: Iran and Qatar have historically had good relations even though Iranian officials on many occasions complained that Qatar is extracting more natural gas from their shared gas field. At the same time, however, Iran knows very well that it suffers technical disadvantages in exploiting its side of the field (South Pars) and that exploration and development of the Qatari side began decades before and are thus far more advanced. It is thus entirely understandable for Qatar to be way ahead of Iran in total extraction of natural gas from this reservoir. At the same time, Qatar is not alone among the GCC nations in maintaining good relations with Iran. Kuwait and Oman have also enjoyed generally good ties with Tehran. In some cases, they either supported Iran’s policies or, in any event, didn’t oppose them.

Obviously, if there is any Saudi intervention or pro-Saudi coup in Qatar, it is not hard to imagine that Iran would react immediately either directly or indirectly through its proxy groups. Moreover, today’s twin Islamic State attacks against Iran’s parliament and the late Leader’s shrine in Tehran — two key and well-guarded targets that may been chosen precisely to undermine confidence in the regime’s ability to maintain security — could possibly radicalize Iran’s discourse and approach toward what it perceives as extremism and any threat to its domestic security and broader national interest in the region, especially regarding Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. That possibility takes on added force given last month’s declaration by Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman that effectively closed the door to any possibility of negotiations or dialogue with Iran. “We are a primary target for the Iranian regime,” he was quoted as saying. “We won’t wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia. Instead, we’ll work so that the battle is for them in Iran.”

Given the context, it’s not difficult to imagine that Iran will take extreme measures both internally and externally to secure its borders and fight against the Islamic State and whoever it believes are its supporters. We must wait and see.
http://lobelog.com/qatar-gulf-crisis-ge ... lications/

MSNBC reporting White House sources says Trump "may not have known" the US has troops based in Qatar.

FIRST ON CNN: US suspects Russian hackers planted fake news behind Qatar crisis
Shimon Prokupecz
By Evan Perez and Shimon Prokupecz, CNN
Updated 6:34 PM ET, Tue June 6, 2017
Sources: Russia planted fake Qatar crisis news

Washington (CNN)US investigators believe Russian hackers breached Qatar's state news agency and planted a fake news report that contributed to a crisis among the US' closest Gulf allies, according to US officials briefed on the investigation.

The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say.
Intelligence gathered by the US security agencies indicates that Russian hackers were behind the intrusion first reported by the Qatari government two weeks ago, US officials say. Qatar hosts one of the largest US military bases in the region.
The alleged involvement of Russian hackers intensifies concerns by US intelligence and law enforcement agencies that Russia continues to try some of the same cyber-hacking measures on US allies that intelligence agencies believe it used to meddle in the 2016 elections.
US officials say the Russian goal appears to be to cause rifts among the US and its allies. In recent months, suspected Russian cyber activities, including the use of fake news stories, have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries.
It's not yet clear whether the US has tracked the hackers in the Qatar incident to Russian criminal organizations or to the Russian security services blamed for the US election hacks. One official noted that based on past intelligence, "not much happens in that country without the blessing of the government."
The FBI and CIA declined to comment. A spokeswoman for the Qatari embassy in Washington said the investigation is ongoing and its results would be released publicly soon.
The Qatari government has said a May 23 news report on its Qatar News Agency attributed false remarks to the nation's ruler that appeared friendly to Iran and Israel and questioned whether President Donald Trump would last in office.
Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani told CNN the FBI has confirmed the hack and the planting of fake news.
"Whatever has been thrown as an accusation is all based on misinformation and we think that the entire crisis being based on misinformation," the foreign minister told CNN's Becky Anderson. "Because it was started based on fabricated news, being wedged and being inserted in our national news agency which was hacked and proved by the FBI."
Sheikh Saif Bin Ahmed Al-Thani, director of the Qatari Government Communications Office, confirmed that Qatar's Ministry of Interior is working with the FBI and the United Kingdom's National Crime Agency on the ongoing hacking investigation of the Qatar News Agency.
"The Ministry of Interior will reveal the findings of the investigation when completed," he told CNN.
Partly in reaction to the false news report, Qatar's neighbors, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have cut off economic and political ties, causing a broader crisis.
The report came at a time of escalating tension over accusations Qatar was financing terrorism.
On Tuesday, Trump tweeted criticism of Qatar that mirrors that of the Saudis and others in the region who have long objected to Qatar's foreign policy. He did not address the false news report.
"So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off," Trump said in a series of tweets. "They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!"
In his tweet, Trump voiced support for the regional blockade of Qatar and cited Qatar's funding of terrorist groups. The Qataris have rejected the terror-funding accusations.
Hours after Trump's tweets, the US State Department said Qatar had made progress on stemming the funding of terrorists but that there was more work to be done.
US and European authorities have complained for years about funding for extremists from Saudi Arabia and other nations in the Gulf region. Fifteen of the 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi citizens.
Last year during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Obama administration officials raised the issue of Saudi funding to build mosques in Europe and Africa that are helping to spread an ultra-conservative strain of Islam.
US intelligence has long been concerned with what they say is the Russian government's ability to plant fake news in otherwise credible streams, according to US officials.
That concern has surfaced in recent months in congressional briefings by former FBI Director James Comey.
Comey told lawmakers that one reason he decided to bypass his Justice Department bosses in announcing no charges in the probe of Hillary Clinton's private email server was the concern about an apparent fake piece of Russian intelligence. The intelligence suggested the Russians had an email that indicated former Attorney General Loretta Lynch had assured Democrats she wouldn't let the Clinton probe lead to charges.
The FBI came to believe the email was fake, but still feared the Russians could release it to undermine the Justice Department's role in the probe.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/06/politics/ ... index.html

[SonicG]

The $1bn hostage deal that enraged Qatar’s Gulf rivals

Doha reportedly paid al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win release of royal hunting party

Qatar paid up to $1bn to release members of its royal family who were kidnapped in Iraq while on a hunting trip, according to people involved in the hostage deal — one of the triggers behind Arab states’ dramatic decision to cut ties with the government in Doha.

Commanders of militant groups and government officials in the region told the Financial Times that Doha spent the money in a transaction that secured the release of 26 members of a Qatari falconry party in southern Iraq and about 50 militants captured by jihadis in Syria. By their telling, Qatar paid off two of the most frequently blacklisted forces of the Middle East in one fell swoop: an al-Qaeda affiliate fighting in Syria and Iranian security officials.

The deal, which was concluded in April, heightened concerns among Qatar’s neighbours about the small gas-rich state’s role in a region plagued by conflict and bitter rivalries. And on Monday, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain took the extraordinary step of cutting off diplomatic ties and transport links to Qatar, alleging the country fuels extremism and terrorism.

“The ransom payments are the straw that broke the camel’s back,” said one Gulf observer.

Doha denies it backs terrorist groups and dismissed the blockade by its neighbours as “founded on allegations that have no basis in fact”. It said it could not immediately respond to a request for comment on the hostage deal. But a person close to the Qatari government acknowledged that “payments” were made. The person was unaware of the amounts or where the money went.

more at:
https://www.ft.com/content/dd033082-49e ... 42b9791d43

[PufPuf93]

Now this is bizarre and a sign of the incompetence of Trump.

Qatar Agrees to $12 Billion Deal for U.S. F-15 Jets Amid Gulf Crisis

Qatar will sign a deal to buy as many as 36 F-15 jets from the U.S. as the two countries navigate tensions over President Donald Trump’s backing for a Saudi-led coalition’s move to isolate the country for supporting terrorism.

Qatari Defense Minister Khalid Al-Attiyah and his U.S. counterpart, Jim Mattis, completed the $12 billion agreement on Wednesday in Washington, according to the Pentagon.

The sale “will give Qatar a state of the art capability and increase security cooperation and interoperability between the United States and Qatar,” the Defense Department said in a statement.

Congress last year approved a sale of as many as 72 F-15s in an agreement valued at as much as $21 billion, providing authorization for the deal completed Wednesday. But that was before Qatar’s neighbors, including Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, severed diplomatic, trade and transport links last week in a move they said was aimed at isolating the country for its support of terrorist groups and Iran.
The F-15 sale highlights the complex position the Trump administration finds itself in, forced to balance its focus on fighting terrorism against regional rivalries between key allies. Qatar hosts the regional headquarters for U.S. Central Command, which includes a state-of-the-art air base the U.S. depends on to target Islamic State.

Decision ‘confusing’

“It is confusing, and the worst thing you want to do in a heated, delicate situation like this is to give mixed messages,” Paul Sullivan, a Middle East specialist at Georgetown University in Washington, said of the Pentagon announcement.

Qatar’s Defense Ministry said the deal would create 60,000 jobs in 42 U.S. states while reducing the burden on U.S. forces. The F-15 accord will lead to “closer strategic collaboration in our fight to counter violent extremism and promote peace and stability in our region and beyond,” the ministry said Wednesday in a statement.
After the Gulf countries moved against Qatar, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson initially declined to take sides in the crisis, but his cautious stance was overshadowed almost immediately by Trump, who sent a series of tweets that appeared to take credit for and praise the decision.

The U.S. position was further muddied last Friday, when Tillerson called on Saudi Arabia to ease the blockade, only to have Trump, at a White House news conference hours later, say the move had been the right one.

“The nation of Qatar, unfortunately, has historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level,” Trump said in a speech at the White House last week. “We ask Qatar, and other nations in the region to do more and do it faster."

Tillerson has since sought to mediate the dispute from Washington, meeting with Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister on Monday. He was scheduled to meet the foreign minister of the U.A.E. -- another member of the Saudi coalition -- for dinner Wednesday night.

“I would characterize the mood and the approach to that as being one that is hopeful, that believes that the worst is behind us,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said on Tuesday.

U.S. presence

While Trump appeared to back Saudi Arabia and Tillerson took a more neutral tone, the Defense Department underscored its relations with Qatar, saying the U.S. was grateful to the country for its support of the U.S. presence there.

“We encourage all our partners in the region to work towards common solutions that enable regional security,” Lieutenant Colonel Damien Pickart, a spokesman for U.S. Air Forces Central Command, said in a statement when the crisis began.

Last year, after the State Department approved the jet sale, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency issued a report saying that the proposed sale “enhances the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a friendly country and strengthening our strategically important relationship.”

“Qatar is an important force for political stability and economic progress in the Persian Gulf region,” the agency said.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/qat ... spartanntp

[JackRiddler]

Indeed, it's a sign of "incompetence" from the perspective of a system that is functioning as always, e.g. to profit by riling up and arming both sides in a potential war. Everything that has been done more quietly and smoothly is made all too obvious by Trump's childish execution and ADD pacing.

This stuff is only supposed to be this obvious in retrospect.

Reagan Armed Iraq and Iran in 1980s War That Killed Over 1 Million
https://www.democracynow.org/2004/6/9/r ... armed_iraq

[PufPuf93]

Indeed, it's a sign of "incompetence" from the perspective of a system that is functioning as always, e.g. to profit by riling up and arming both sides in a potential war. Everything that has been done more quietly and smoothly is made all too obvious by Trump's childish execution and ADD pacing.

This stuff is only supposed to be this obvious in retrospect.

Reagan Armed Iraq and Iran in 1980s War That Killed Over 1 Million
https://www.democracynow.org/2004/6/9/r ... armed_iraq

Of course you are correct JackR and I agree with you.

With Trump the audacity plays out in two or three days but is lost in the general confusion. Trump is not adept at his role.

[norton ash]

I'm beginning to think that maybe war is a racket.

[Grizzly]

I'm beginning to think that maybe war is a racket.

No, that's not it at all, at all.... /s Whatever gave you that idea!!???

[Wombaticus Rex]

The most interesting takeaway for me was that pretty much nobody writing essays in English had a fucking clue what had happened or why. The panic levels and crisis stance in DC was quite something, especially laid against the constant low-level FUD of TrumpAdmin. It was a genuine pivot. Diplomatic and intelligence channels were both caught flat-footed by this.

The contradictory and deep market responses to the news were also telling. I don't think very many people had any inkling.

I suspect one short-term effect of this will be further weakening OPEC, but the situation is still so fluid it's hard to imagine what "normal relations" will be in MENA come September.

[Iamwhomiam]

The most interesting takeaway for me was that pretty much nobody writing essays in English had a fucking clue what had happened or why. The panic levels and crisis stance in DC was quite something, especially laid against the constant low-level FUD of TrumpAdmin. It was a genuine pivot. Diplomatic and intelligence channels were both caught flat-footed by this.

The contradictory and deep market responses to the news were also telling. I don't think very many people had any inkling.

I suspect one short-term effect of this will be further weakening OPEC, but the situation is still so fluid it's hard to imagine what "normal relations" will be in MENA come September.

I read only one report that related the complaints against Qatar and those were this pay-off was the last straw, as Qatar had been warned against paying ransoms because doing so would endanger a great many more if seen, and how couldn't it be, as a successful tactic to raise funding. This last publicized kidnapping and pay-off was only the most recent of many that have occurred.

However, it is a huge policy reversal for the US.

The Saudis get F-35s for their fist of several purchases that will total to more than $300B and Qatar get F-15s for their $12B. Some stockholders get wealthier and Halliburton is champing at the bit to bid for reconstruction contracts that eventually will be awarded to the Chinese and Indian firms. And the beat-down goes on.

[JackRiddler]

It doesn't surprise me, it's been obvious for many years that the U.S. policy establishment has altogether lost the script on the Middle East. And Trump's first move was to remove whatever expertise there might have been in the State Department (benign, malignant or otherwise) and replace it with emanations of his own beautiful mind and crew of blind privateers. Leaving aside how the policy makers and pundits don't know shit about the region or even their own direct allies, generally don't speak the languages, etc., and neither do we here (generally), what we have discussed here over the years should leave no surprise that responses are contradictory. On the American side there is no unifying vision and a host of separate interests involved that are often not even aware of each other sufficiently to be called competing. They're more like autistically pursuing narrow interests in a crowded field.

[KUAN]

It doesn't surprise me, it's been obvious for many years that the U.S. policy establishment has altogether lost the script on the Middle East. And Trump's first move was to remove whatever expertise there might have been in the State Department (benign, malignant or otherwise) and replace it with emanations of his own beautiful mind and crew of blind privateers. Leaving aside how the policy makers and pundits don't know shit about the region or even their own direct allies, generally don't speak the languages, etc., and neither do we here (generally), what we have discussed here over the years should leave no surprise that responses are contradictory. On the American side there is no unifying vision and a host of separate interests involved that are often not even aware of each other sufficiently to be called competing. They're more like autistically pursuing narrow interests in a crowded field.

Would you care to post a Youtube video that best sums it up?

[8bitagent]

Thank you, BenDhyan for posting this thread. As everyone salivates and zombifies over the Russia-Trump stuff, it was weird that all the sudden Qatar has been ostracized on the world stage by the Gulf Arab elites.
Just hilarious Donald "Maybe Saudi Arabia was behind 9/11" Trump suddenly is doing billions of dollars of business and bowing before the Saudis, the country who helped orchestrate 9/11 and is behind virtually
all modern Wahhabist terrorist groups...and yet Qatar is singled out and Saudi Arabia are cast in a good guy light.

As much as I make fun of the endless "Trump Russia" stuff, I read Russian hackers planted fake news about Qatar, which got the ball rolling on the Arab gulf states isolating the country? With Trumps tweets, and OPEC kicking them to the curb?

[BenDhyan]

^^^ You're welcome 8bit. Yes, that's an amusng piece from CNN fake news that Russians planted fake news...

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/06/politics/russian-hackers-planted-fake-news-qatar-crisis/index.html

[JackRiddler]

As much as I make fun of the endless "Trump Russia" stuff, I read Russian hackers planted fake news about Qatar, which got the ball rolling on the Arab gulf states isolating the country?

No no no. Preposterous. The Saudi-Qatar conflict has been going on forever. They didn't do this because of a single story, whether it was fake, Russian-placement or no. (No more than the presence of Podesta's e-mails on the Internet swung Wisconsin!) They did do this because Trump said, go ahead and attack those terrorists, probably not fully knowing or caring what it signified when he said it.