Moderators: Elvis, DrVolin, Jeff
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/ ... 8ZtVhih0t4
The 2020s are set to be an economic turning point, says global banking giant
By business reporter Michael Janda
Updated Tue at 10:09pm
[...]
In what it describes as "the decade of peak", Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) analysts say a range of economic and social challenges are "all heading to a boiling point" next decade.
[...]
It is forecasting peak globalisation, as governments seek to reassert sovereignty over trade and investment flows across borders, as already emerging through Donald Trump's trade war with China, the dispute between Korea and Japan and the rise of nationalist politicians in many countries.
[...]
"The 1981-2016 era of unchecked flow of goods, people and capital is coming to an end, catalysed by the widespread recognition that while globalisation has meant lower consumer prices, it has also meant slower growth, precarious employment and social disruption," BAML's analysts write.
Elvis » 11 Nov 2019 12:57 wrote:Just saw this exchange in a blog comment section:
Austrian: "The problem with Keynesians is that they want painless solutions."
MMT'er: "The problem with Austrians is that they want painful solutions."
DrEvil » Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:55 pm wrote:^^You're not wrong about that. If I remember correctly traders get it right about 50% of the time. You could literally have a chimp flipping a coin and get the same result.
I didn't have much economics on my way through school, so I'm using my chairmanship to become educated.
PufPuf93 » Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:39 am wrote:DrEvil » Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:55 pm wrote:^^You're not wrong about that. If I remember correctly traders get it right about 50% of the time. You could literally have a chimp flipping a coin and get the same result.
Perhaps MMMT?
Monkey's Machines Make Trades (as most trades are automated algorithms).
Are you of age to recall the book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_ ... all_Street
https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down ... 037&sr=8-1
One assumption to the random walk theory is that between periods changes of security values follow a random walk, that is the ratio of between period market values follow a log normal distribution. The problem is, as Benoit Mandelbrot pointed out so many years ago, that between period price ratios are not random but fractal; what appears to be log normal is actually still a bell-shaped curve but one with long tails on one or both sides subject to turbulence (chaos). To the best of my knowledge that random walk is an assumption in all models valuing options and decisions regards one-sided contracts in portfolio construction by institutional investors or investment and other banks in their own accounts. But I am 20 plus years out of date so don't pay too much attention to me.
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