Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Moderators: Elvis, DrVolin, Jeff

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Grizzly » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:06 am

r/notmyjob


COVID-19: Infectious diseases specialist shares dire conditions inside the Diamond Princess

Diamond Princess is COVID-19 mill. How I got in the ship and was removed from it within one day.



Diamond Princess has completely inadequate infection control, and there is no professional ID person in charge. Passengeres, crews, health care professionals working inside are at risk of infection, and the practice is even worse than what I saw in Africa. Immediate action is needed to save people inside.


---
Comments
https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/f636jz/covid19_infectious_diseases_specialist_shares/
The bureaucrats are running the show, and hamstringing the doctors and nurses that know how to control the spread of infection, and will not allow infectious disease specialists on the ship. I will bet a Coke to anyone that PM Abe is behind this, as he is scared of losing money from tourism and The Olympics visitors this summer. Yet, the officials are making it worse for everyone, and they either don't care, or are being paid enough to not care.
If Barthes can forgive me, “What the public wants is the image of passion Justice, not passion Justice itself.”
User avatar
Grizzly
 
Posts: 3120
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:15 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby 8bitagent » Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:12 am

I feel it's a ruse for pundits to compare COVID-19/Corona Virus to the "seasonal Flu". If China and WHO are telling the truth about 2000 people dying of Covid with 75,000 infected, that's 2.67 fatality rate%.
If 2.67% of everyone who got the seasonal flu died in any given year? That would be Spanish Flu/Middle Ages level horrific.

It's been surreal to see the largest country in the world and 2nd largest economy under almost total military quarantine. COVID-19/Corona is one of those rare news situations where even the most lurid hyperbole pales to what seems to actually be happening. A sick part of me of me for a second delighted with glee at seeing news reports that Apple would see a big financial hit(I freaking HATE Apple) from their virtual slave factories/stores shut down for months in China...til I realized the sheer human toll happening is something that hasn't even begun to sink in. I remember 90's Ebola, SARS, MERS, Avian, H1N1, 2010's Ebola re-emergence, etc and the hyperbole. COVID, at the very least financially, seems like the apocalypse.
"Do you know who I am? I am the arm, and I sound like this..."-man from another place, twin peaks fire walk with me
User avatar
8bitagent
 
Posts: 12193
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 6:49 am
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby mentalgongfu2 » Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:00 am

I think the most under-appreciated story so far is still the impact this outbreak and response is going to have on global economics, and particularly on China at a time that the presidential administration has been pursuing a trade war. Even if it ends tomorrow, it is going to have a lasting impact on all businesses that rely on Chinese manufacturing, coming as it did right at the end of the Lunar New Year. One wonders if it was indeed a manufactured contagion, who benefits from disrupting the manufacturing hub of the modern world, and how?
"When I'm done ranting about elite power that rules the planet under a totalitarian government that uses the media in order to keep people stupid, my throat gets parched. That's why I drink Orange Drink!"
User avatar
mentalgongfu2
 
Posts: 1771
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 6:02 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:19 am

mentalgongfu2 » Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:00 am wrote:who benefits from disrupting the manufacturing hub of the modern world, and how?


I'd start with the country that is running a half-trillion dollar trade deficit with China, myself, but there is no shortage of suspect beneficiaries. (Not only is China ranked #2 in the global King Of The Hill game, they're also the biggest, most dangerous polluter on Earth. It's not a close margin, either.)

But of course, it's absurd to even imply that, say -- Vietnam, or Taiwan, or Indonesia did this. They might be eager competitors looking to hoover up any & all available contracts they can, but they certainly don't have the force projection or infrastructure or manufacture this contagion, nor seed it.

And as much as I roll my fucking eyes to the cathedral ceiling of the world when people do deep dives into speculation about nCoV's origin story, there's already a remarkably clear chain of events that outline how this scenario could have come to pass. It starts in Canada and it involves a prominent Harvard professor who is already under arrest.

Yet nCoV is likely only the first shockwave of a long, disorienting decade. If bioweapon it be, then that sets a pretty dangerous precedent because there are about a dozen other actors developing bioweapons, and genetically targeted bioweapons, besides. On top of that, we're plummeting into a Solar Minimum phase (and who knows, maybe a fuckin' geomagnetic reversal, too) so that will likely mean more massive disease outbreaks. Then you slather on the mystery prize of melting permafrost unlocking who knows what...

...so it's not just "how does the global economy cope with the effects of a Chinese pandemic," but how will these supply chains (and the insurance companies who undergird every link of those chains) adapt to an era of absolutely perpetual disruption? How is that going to change the nature and duration of manufacturing contracts? Shipping contracts? Retail and wholesale?

In an era of secular stagnation and decline, where GDP numbers were trending down long before Trump started a trade war with China, where the FIRE industry has been reduced to fracking their own economies just to make quarterly quotas, I'd propose that everyone wins from this scenario, because everything is going to be re-calibrated and re-negotiated, and the usual parasites will be extracting huge fees every step of the way. It's a new day in London, a new day on Wall Street. Things are looking up!
User avatar
Wombaticus Rex
 
Posts: 10614
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:33 pm
Location: Vermontistan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Belligerent Savant » Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:19 pm

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Belligerent Savant
 
Posts: 2679
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:58 pm
Location: North Atlantic.
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Belligerent Savant » Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:51 pm

.

Wombaticus Rex » Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:19 am wrote:...

...so it's not just "how does the global economy cope with the effects of a Chinese pandemic," but how will these supply chains (and the insurance companies who undergird every link of those chains) adapt to an era of absolutely perpetual disruption? How is that going to change the nature and duration of manufacturing contracts? Shipping contracts? Retail and wholesale?

In an era of secular stagnation and decline, where GDP numbers were trending down long before Trump started a trade war with China, where the FIRE industry has been reduced to fracking their own economies just to make quarterly quotas, I'd propose that everyone wins from this scenario, because everything is going to be re-calibrated and re-negotiated, and the usual parasites will be extracting huge fees every step of the way. It's a new day in London, a new day on Wall Street. Things are looking up!


An astute take.


Perhaps it'll be used as the catalyst for the next 'industrial' revolution: speeding up the onslaught of automation and 'AI' to offset perpetual volatility. Algos, quants, smart-dumb applications and related platforms that will require recurring advice, consultation and management by the McKinseys of a given 'vertical'.

Revolutions start with a series of trigger points.
Sometimes it's largely a function of capitalizing on trending events, other times the events themselves are concocted to help push the agenda(s) along.

The Market observers will be keenly interested in the extent/breadth of the near-term (economic) downturn. Therein lies opportunity.
User avatar
Belligerent Savant
 
Posts: 2679
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:58 pm
Location: North Atlantic.
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby identity » Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 pm

If/when a vaccine is developed and ready to be administered (no exemptions!), facial recognition technology will no doubt come in handy to identify those who have not had the jab.

Moscow deploys facial recognition technology for coronavirus quarantine
Reuters

MOSCOW (Feb 21): Moscow is using facial recognition technology to ensure people ordered to remain at home or at their hotels under the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) quarantine, do so, the mayor of the Russian capital said on Friday.

Russia has temporarily barred Chinese nationals from entering the country to curb the spread of the virus, but has welcomed Russians who return home with an order to spend two weeks at home, even in the absence of symptoms.

Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, said some 2,500 people who had landed in the city from China had been ordered to go into quarantine. To prevent them leaving their apartments, the authorities are using facial recognition technology in the city to catch any offenders, he said.

"Compliance with the regime is constantly monitored, including with the help of facial recognition systems and other technical measures," he wrote on his website.

In one case described by Sobyanin, surveillance footage showed a woman who had returned from China leaving her apartment and meeting friends outside. The authorities were able to track down the taxi driver who had taken her home from the airport, thanks to video footage, Sobyanin said.

Sobyanin said the city was also forced to carry out raids against possible carriers of the virus, something he said was "unpleasant but necessary".

The Moscow mayor's office did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Sobyanin said last month that the city had begun using facial recognition as part of its city security surveillance programme.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he had not seen details of the actions being taken in Moscow, but that measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus should not be discriminatory.

The clamp down on quarantine rules comes after a woman in St. Petersburg staged an elaborate escape from a hospital where she said she was being kept against her will.

The incident, which resulted in a court ordering her to return to the quarantine facility, raised questions about the robustness of Russia's Covid-19 quarantine measures.

Russia has reported two cases of the illness — two Chinese nationals who have since recovered and been released from hospital, according to the authorities.
identity
 
Posts: 705
Joined: Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:00 am
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:30 pm

Via: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-threa ... c6d01.html

About 150 prescription drugs — including antibiotics, generics and some branded drugs without alternatives — are at risk of shortage if the coronavirus outbreak in China worsens, according to two sources familiar with a list of at-risk drugs compiled by the Food and Drug Administration.

Why it matters: China is a huge supplier of the ingredients used to make drugs that are sold in the U.S. If the virus decreases China's production capability, Americans who rely on the drugs made from these ingredients could be in trouble.

What they're saying: The FDA declined to comment on the list, but said in a statement that it's "keenly aware that the outbreak could impact the medical product supply chain," and has devoted additional resources toward identifying potential vulnerabilities to U.S. medical products stemming specifically from the outbreak.

The agency has been in contact with hundreds of drug and medical device manufacturers, and it's also coordinating with global regulators like the European Medicines Agency.
It pointed out that there aren't any vaccines, gene therapies or blood derivatives licensed by the FDA that are manufactured in China, although raw materials for many products do come from China and other southeastern Asian countries. The agency is in contact with biologics manufacturers to monitor supply concerns.
"If a potential shortage or disruption of medical products is identified by the FDA, we will use all available tools to react swiftly and mitigate the impact to U.S. patients and health care professionals," said an FDA spokesperson.

The intrigue: FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn is not a member of the task force that the administration has assembled to handle the coronavirus. Only two of the dozen members of the task force are physician-scientists, BioCentury noted on Friday.

Politico reported Friday night that the White House is worried about how the coronavirus outbreak could shape President Trump's re-election prospects, and some administration officials are concerned that the virus is already spreading within the U.S., undetected.

The bottom line: Whether or not the coronavirus spreads within the U.S., any potential drug shortages would be felt acutely by the American patients that rely on them.


Bonus Bottom Line: it's already spreading within the U.S., so...
User avatar
Wombaticus Rex
 
Posts: 10614
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:33 pm
Location: Vermontistan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Grizzly » Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:18 am

https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/#comments
Past Time to Tell the Public: “It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now”

List of experts and relevant institutions in the recent Corona virus outbreak
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/lists/1221496399386365952
If Barthes can forgive me, “What the public wants is the image of passion Justice, not passion Justice itself.”
User avatar
Grizzly
 
Posts: 3120
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:15 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:25 pm

Things have rather exploded in the past 72 hours, I'll have to take some time this evening to synthesize all the threads. A lot of dubious leads and suspect narratives, as expected. This, however, was quite even-handed and perhaps even accurate.

Via: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/02/41667 ... -be-enough

How the New Coronavirus Spreads and Progresses – And Why One Test May Not Be Enough

By Nina Bai

A novel coronavirus that first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December continues to sicken tens of thousands of people around the world – and scientists are working round the clock to better understand the virus, contain the outbreak, and treat the disease.

In the weeks since the outbreak, the disease has been named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. (The virus itself has been named SARS-CoV-2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses).

UC San Francisco infectious disease expert Charles Chiu, MD, PhD, has been following the disease since its outbreak and provided the latest updates on what science has revealed about how the coronavirus is transmitted, what happens to someone who’s infected, and why a single diagnostic test may not be enough.
The new coronavirus is spread through droplets and surfaces.

The principal mode of transmission is still thought to be respiratory droplets, which may travel up to six feet from someone who is sneezing or coughing. The new coronavirus isn’t believed to be an airborne virus, like measles or smallpox, that can circulate through the air. “If you have an infected person in the front of the plane, for instance, and you’re in the back of the plane, your risk is close to zero simply because the area of exposure is thought to be roughly six feet from the infected person,” said Chiu.

Close contact with an infectious person, such as shaking hands, or touching a doorknob, tabletop or other surfaces touched by an infectious person, and then touching your nose, eyes, or mouth can also transmit the virus.

Chiu stresses that we do not yet have definitive data on how long the new coronavirus can survive on surfaces, but based on data from other coronaviruses such as SARS, it may be for up to two days at room temperatures.

New reports raised the possibility that the virus may be spread by fecal contamination of the environment, such as through leaky sewage pipes. Infections across multiple floors of a building due to contaminated bathroom pipes was previously demonstrated for SARS coronavirus.
It’s probably less deadly than SARS, more deadly than the flu.

The latest estimates based on the reported number of cases and deaths suggests the death rate is about 2 percent. For comparison, SARS had a death rate of about 10 percent and seasonal influenza has a death rate of 0.1 percent.

However, according to Chiu, the actual death rate of the new coronavirus very well may be lower than 2 percent because the total number of cases likely has been underreported. Not all cases are promptly identified, especially in Wuhan, where medical services are stretched thin, and there have been documented cases of asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic transmission, which are harder to identify and track.

“I believe that the actual calculated death rates will go down over time, perhaps to less than 1 percent” said Chiu.
This is how the disease progresses: (Day 7 is the worst.)

“From published reports, we do now have a better sense of the overall time course for the disease,” said Chiu. Once a person is exposed and becomes infected, the incubation period before the onset of symptoms is about five days, although this can vary from two to 11 days. Flu-like symptoms are often mild at first and some patients recover without the symptoms becoming more serious. But for a subset who get worse, day four after the onset of symptoms is usually when they seek medical care because they develop shortness of breath and early pneumonia, said Chiu, and they may become critically ill by day seven. After day 11, most patients who survive are on their way to recovery.

Treatments are still experimental and unproven.

No drugs or vaccines yet have been proven effective against the virus, but some experimental treatments are being tried. These include Remdesivir, an antiviral drug that was originally developed for Ebola, which was given to the patient in Washington State and is being given to some patients in China, said Chiu. Other groups are trying various combinations of antivirals, including anti-HIV drugs. In the absence of a proven drug therapy, patients receive supportive care, such as supplementary oxygen, fluids, and antibiotics to guard against secondary bacterial infections.
Even those who recover from COVID-19 might not be immune forever.

“Unfortunately, we don’t know yet whether or not the body’s immune response would protect you from subsequent infection,” said Chiu. It is known that exposure to the four seasonal human coronaviruses (that cause the common cold) does produce immunity to those particular viruses. In those cases, the immunity lasts longer than that of seasonal influenza, but is probably not permanent, said Chiu.
A single negative test may not rule out infection.

The currently available diagnostic test is a PCR test developed by the CDC, which looks for RNA from the virus. However, hospitalized patients infected with the new coronavirus can have test results that vary from day to day because the amount of virus produced by the body can change throughout the course of the illness, said Chiu.

Repeat testing may be necessary to determine if a suspected person has been infected or when a patient is no longer infectious. “The take home message is that a test that looks at a single time point is not sufficient to rule out infection,” said Chiu.

Evidence from the case in Washington State also suggests that the severity of the illness does not necessarily correlate with levels of the virus in the body – meaning someone can be very infectious without seeming very sick. “That’s why there’s concern that patients who are minimally symptomatic may be fueling the outbreak simply because they don’t feel sick enough to go to the hospital,” said Chiu.

Chiu’s lab, in collaboration with the startup Mammoth Biosciences, is developing a rapid diagnostic test that could more quickly and widely monitor for the disease. The new test is a color-changing test strip that uses CRISPR to detect viral RNA and can be run in 30 minutes to an hour. “We’ve been able to run this rapid test on both control samples and patient samples and it appears to be working,” said Chiu. He hopes to optimize the test so that it can be run by anyone and deployed in low-resource areas.
Health care workers are taking maximal precautions when treating COVID-19 patients.

To protect against infection by the new coronavirus, health care workers wear personal protective equipment such as gowns, gloves, face shields, and N95 respirator masks when they are in the same room as a patient who is in isolation. “All health care personnel get regular fittings of N95 masks to ensure that they are worn properly,” said Chiu. These precautions are meant to protect against contact, droplet and airborne transmission. The additional airborne precautions are taken in the health care setting because some medical procedures, such as endotracheal intubation, may cause secretions to be aerosolized. Chiu said that, per CDC recommendations, items brought into the room are preferably disposable, or if not, are disinfected before being removed from the room, and after the patient is discharged from the hospital, the entire room is disinfected.
User avatar
Wombaticus Rex
 
Posts: 10614
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:33 pm
Location: Vermontistan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:09 pm

So I assumed the rumbling about a Korean cult spreading nCoV was a QAnon-grade turd, yet that turns out to be true. You'll see a lot of headlines about "KOREAN DEATH CULTS" or "Doomsday Cults," but it's just a basic-ass Korean Prot splinter cell -- so basic-ass, in fact, it's just a schism of the original Korean Cult, Park Tae Son's Olive Tree.

Via: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... s-outbreak

"If authorities fail to contain the spread of the COVID-19 in Daegu, there is a high possibility that COVID-19 could spread nationwide," Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told reporters on Monday.

Most of South Korea's 833 cases, as of Monday, are in Daegu. And most are connected to an obscure religious group called the Shincheonji Church of Jesus.


For a purported "death cult," Shincheonji (I've seen this explained as both "New World" and, more colorfully, "New Heaven and New Earth") shows a mighty keen interest in recruiting living followers and expanding both their reach and income -- trawling SERPs gives you no shortage of articles from outraged Christians discovering that Shincheonji operatives are trying to poach their flock.

So as the Republic of Korea rocketed into second place with 800+ confimed cases, Italy also witnessed an explosion of cases, and reacted by closing down the affected areas. This dynamic is going to absolutely define the months to come: no matter what, ahem, "system of government" any given nation has, you can absolutely depend on them to over-react when it's too late to make a difference.

Another dynamic that's occuring over and over again: once a nation starts finding cases, they undertake a serious effort to look for more. And then they find a whole lot more.

A lot has been made of Johns Hopkins guru Amesh Adalja stating that nCoV most likely cannot be contained, especially in light of his involvement with the Gates Foundation / World Economic Forum exercise "Event 201" -- which war-gamed a simulation that is, undeniably, a 1:1 outline of the current situation. However, Adalja has been calling this tune for a long time now, it's his career, his life work, his beat. (ie, his 2018 assertion that "the next global pandemic will be respiratory related" is either damning or inevitable, depending on your reading comprehension skillset.) Further, it's a pretty fucking obvious point. He's talking about how the world system works, not making some insider prophecy about the nature of this new virus outbreak.

Related: Does the World System Actually Work?

There's going to be a lot of flailing around to find a narrative in the next two weeks as the "Wuhan animal market" story continues to fall apart under scrutiny (and epidemiology). Finding a proper Patient Zero may well be completely impossible at this late point in the game, especially as the origins of the COVID-19 outbreak keeps getting post-dated.

Interestingly, it's looking like one of the major vectors for a lot of international seeding isn't Wuhan in the Hubei province, but Wenzhou, over in the Zhejiang province. Why is Italy having an outbreak? 90% of their Chinese population are textile workers from Wenzou. (Really.) Why is Iran having an outbreak? There's actually a high speed freight rail line running from nearby Wiwu to Tehran. (Really.) Nothing conclusive, but interesting.

Meanwhile, the United States has been fucking up to a worrying degree. The Diamond Princess evacuation was a shit-show of a rush job, but the domestic situation might be even worse. After fucking up the initial shipments of testing kits, the CDC states they've only tested 426 people -- up from 414 on Feb. 21st. For perspective, there are 325 people under observation in Michigan alone.

The bottleneck is the fact only three states have any capacity for testing, so everyone is waiting on the CDC. The cynic in me wonders if that's a deliberate bid to give them a monopoly on declaring "official" cases in the month to come. (Worse yet, one of those three states is California, a burning herpes crater.)

The CDC is claiming there are 14 confirmed cases, in addition to 53 from the Princess airlift. The story from Costa Mesa, California, where their city government is strenuously objecting to the tranfer of up to 50 patients to a facility in their jurisdiction, is most likely related to those Princess cases. The CDC, like anyone else paying attention, expects that number to keep growing.

(However, it's also possible that the extent of the outbreak in the US is being kept secret and Costa Mesa is one of dozens of facilities that will be seeing transfers in the weeks to come.)

Speaking of Event 201, it's interesting one of the core participants was Matthew Harrington, a PR hack from Edelman. There is a lot of institutional and NGO interest in fighting/regulating "misinformation" regarding health issues. This is of course a bid for more online censorship, and a likely long-term outcome of the nCoV / COVID-19 phenomenon. It's a classic story: leaders fuck up, take zero accountability, and get expanded powers over their serfs in exchange for their catastrophic failure.

Without question, leaders have to lie. The problem is, the elites we get stuck with tend to only exercise this sovereign power in the service of covering their own incompetent asses.
Last edited by Wombaticus Rex on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Wombaticus Rex
 
Posts: 10614
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:33 pm
Location: Vermontistan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:12 pm

This is shaping up to be an existential threat to the social contract -- any version of purported relationship between the rulers and the ruled.

The shift I've been waiting for happened definitively over the last few news cycles: the inflection point where nCoV starts to threaten lives instead of just reputations, among our noble elites. Here in the United States, leader of the free world, king of the hill, when things get really bad, we've got a plan for that. It's called "Continuity of Government," and it is a system for keeping our leaders alive even after their subjects are all mostly deceased. It's a naked admission of what the real social contract is, even when the fat of the land is enough lard to feed half the world. Our solemn pledge to our citizens: Fuck You, Little Man.

So with that in mind, it's an important shift to see world leaders catching the lung AIDS now, too. I wish I could believe those kinds of stakes would mean that world leaders would redouble their efforts to knuckle down and get serious, but the reality is, this is just going to divert critical resources in order to further insulate world leaders from the real world. That's the only plan they had.

The victims are small fry so far -- the top dog in Slovakia, the health minister of Iran, several prominent Japanese health authorities -- but the panic is already burbling through Brussels, London and DC.

There has also been a notable shift in global PR messaging this week: a bifurcation, as Xi's orbit steps up "We're Winning The War" bullshit and English language media is increasingly moving into the next phase of Preparation, and even explicitly expressing doubts about the reality of China's numbers. Not just columnists with snarky opinions, either, proper news stories. And oh yeah, The Atlantic just yesterday: "You Will Likely Get Coronavirus." Not only is it a pandemic, it's a permanent pandemic as well:

Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”


The economic effects are continuing to spread far out of proportion to the impact of the actual virus, and that is poised to expand, dramatically, to Europe this week, as their industrial centers start to float long-term, emergency factory closures as a response. That would be disruptive enough if it weren't landing on top of the ongoing closures in China, which are due to continue for some time despite Xi's (suicidal but impressively audacious) insistence that China get the fuck back to work. Basic logistics (transportation, financing and raw supplies) make that all but impossible for at least another month, and that is assuming China's numbers are actually going down.

It seems inevitable that, no matter when China does manage to re-start, we'll see an initial bump in cases again due to public transportation and factory floors amplifying aerosol transmission all over again.

The real problem with global media diverging into two separate narratives, though, is the fact that will politicize everything even further, which deadlock the international institutions who need to coordinate the response. They were pretty fucked already, between a calcified bureaucracy and their limited charters, but making things even worse seems ... well, bad. That's a prediction I'm comfortable making.

Not that things are much better here. Once you really dig into CDC's guidelines for dealing with this, they don't even get serious about their "recommendations" per school closures and cancelling mass events until there are millions of casualties. Not cases; casualties. Commerce Uber Alles.

Wombaticus Rex » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:09 pm wrote:Interestingly, it's looking like one of the major vectors for a lot of international seeding isn't Wuhan in the Hubei province, but Wenzhou, over in the Zhejiang province. Why is Italy having an outbreak? 90% of their Chinese population are textile workers from Wenzou. (Really.) Why is Iran having an outbreak? There's actually a high speed freight rail line running from nearby Wiwu to Tehran. (Really.) Nothing conclusive, but interesting.


Based on the diaspora distribution from Wenzhou: expect cases in Spain, France, and the Netherlands Industrial Complex. They're already there.
User avatar
Wombaticus Rex
 
Posts: 10614
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:33 pm
Location: Vermontistan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Belligerent Savant » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:14 pm

.
These contributions are greatly appreciated. I'm sure I'm not alone in this sentiment.
User avatar
Belligerent Savant
 
Posts: 2679
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:58 pm
Location: North Atlantic.
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby norton ash » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:39 pm

Yep, me too. Excellent work, Rex.
Zen horse
User avatar
norton ash
 
Posts: 3978
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:46 pm
Location: Canada
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby LolaB » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:23 pm

I've really been appreciating Dr. John Campbell's daily updates and input on this:


:hrumph
User avatar
LolaB
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2005 12:20 am
Location: Topanga CA
Blog: View Blog (0)

PreviousNext

Return to General Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests