identity » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:53 pm wrote:
Nevertheless, it's still useful to share information, as in some areas of life it's still possible to make decisions for oneself that will (hopefully!) minimize the losses/suffering.
I think a lot of the vitriol around this issue is related to the nagging issue of how little agency most of us have, once things go south. It seems irrational to stock up on a room full of toilet paper, sure, but it's something,
right? Same is true for the hall monitor types who get irritated by speculation, paranoia and conspiracy theories -- why don't you get your information from reputable sources like the CDC?
Something to hold onto.
Meanwhile we're all just parsing smoke signals and trying to gather enough context to catch up.
CIDRAP updates from Saturday
Since late yesterday afternoon, the following states have reported their first cases:
South Carolina: two unlinked cases, one of them in an elderly woman and another in a person who had traveled to Europe
Utah: Grand Princess cruise ship passenger
Oklahoma: Italy traveler
Kentucky: exposure not specified in a Lexington resident
Nebraska: United Kingdom travel
Hawaii: Grand Princess cruise ship passenger
Kansas: Travel related
Most new cases, however, were reported from affected states on the West and East coasts.
..and from earlier this evening (Sunday)
Italy's health ministry today reported 1,492 new cases today, along with 133 more deaths, bringing its respective overall totals to 7,375 cases and 366 deaths. The new development pushes Italy ahead of South Korea as the country with the highest number of cases behind China.
The country also finalized a lockdown affecting all of Lombardy region, where 4,189 cases have been reported so far. It also affects 14 provinces in other regions, and taken together, the measures put about 16 million people—about one quarter of Italy's population—under quarantine. The measures are in effect until Apr 3 and also prohibit weddings and funerals and shutter movie theaters, nightclubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums, and ski resorts. Restaurants can remain open limited hours, but customers must sit 3 feet apart.
At least four more states have reported their first cases: Vermont, Missouri, Virginia, and Connecticut. Vermont's case involves an adult with unspecified exposure, Missouri's patient is a resident who traveled to Italy.
Virginia's first case, announced yesterday, is a US Marine from Fort Belvoir, and a second case announced today is a Fairfax resident who was on the same Nile River cruise linked to other US cases. Connecticut's first case is a state resident who was likely exposed in California.
US numbers will be, technically speaking, going hog wild this week. Now that the system can actually manage testing at scale, we will see new confirmed cases at scale, with multiple hot zones on both coasts sustaining community spread.
All of the testing will be prioritized towards likely cases, so be wary of people trying to glean "infection rates" from those figures -- obviously hugely, profoundly skewed by that most classic of fuck-ups, selection bias
. The best method to work around that is "serosurveys," where you take randomized populations and subject them to regular blood tests. Obviously, that's not going to happen under the current circumstances, with everyone on the state and federal level failing to keep pace with incoming reports & requests.Oil prices are heading towards a record crash this morning, bond yields are cratering,
so clearly recent "market turbulence" was a prelude for the actual massacre to come this week. (And next week will likely be worse.) The real source of elite panic, though, will be the news that dropped over the weekend about CPAC
attendees having confirmed cases -- reminiscent of Jamie Dimon's weird riff about his Davos nightmare
"I had this nightmare that somehow in Davos, all of us who went there got it, and then we all left and spread it," Dimon said Tuesday at the bank's annual investor meeting. "The only good news from that is that it might have just killed the elite."
Attendees laughed after he made the comment. Prior to his joke, Dimon noted that that he hopes the virus gets contained and "feels terrible" about it.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) didn't immediately return our request for comment.
That was about five years ago, on February 25th, 2020. Congress is scared and we may well see regular session suspended -- no matter how much they want to put on a brave face for the sake of appearances, they're simply not brave people.