US Presidential Election 2020

[Harvey]

Four more years of 'Russiagate,' then...

[coffin_dodger]

If you want to know who the next US Prez will be, take a look at bookmaker's odds.

[Iamwhomiam]

I took a quick look at Ladbrokes Sports Betting in the UK. Biden is at 2/3, meaning a £10 bet will return £16.66. Trump is at 6/5, meaning a £10 bet will return £22.00.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/international/us-elections/2020-us-presidential-election/224912471/all-markets

[Belligerent Savant]

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Much of this is nothing more than reporting of current polling data (unreliable as we know it to be). The current sentiment depicted by recent polling, if we are to take the reporting at face value, shouldn't be surprising.

A Pew Research Center poll that’s already a month old (and a lot happened since) concluded that violent crime is a major issue according to 59% of voters (almost as much as coronavirus): 74% of Republicans and 46% of Democrats. But during the DNC, held after the poll was already out, the issue wasn’t addressed at all. Democrats talked about police violence, but not riot violence.

At this week’s RNC, this situation is -of course- very different. The DNC pushes the GOP into the role of the party of law and order, and they’re all too willing to take up that role. But I was wondering about something else, or “bigger”, this morning. That is, Joe Biden et al are very light on policies, because in their view their most important issue is to get people to vote *against* Donald Trump, rather than *for* Biden.

And I’m thinking maybe that’s starting to boomerang, to blow up in their faces, whether perhaps people are beginning to lean towards NOT voting for Joe Biden, instead of NOT voting for Donald Trump, “at any cost”. In that context, it appears telling that according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden saw no “convention poll bounce” in his numbers after the DNC, while ironically, Trump did.

Whereas according to a Zogby Analytics poll, Trump’s job approval numbers are now at record high levels. And I know polls -and pollsters- can be biased, and so can the press quoting them, but to see three in a row, Reuters/Ipsos, Rasmussen, Zogby, all reporting similar movement, may still be significant.

Trump Job Approval Rating Hits Record At 52%

Buoyed by blacks and independent voters, as well as urban dwellers shocked by the Black Lives Matter protest violence raging in some cities, President Trump’s approval rating has hit a new high, according to a survey heavy with minority voters. The latest Zogby Analytics poll just shared with Secrets had Trump’s approval at 52%. “The president has recorded his best job approval rating on record,” said pollster Jonathan Zogby.


What’s more, his approval rating among minorities was solid and, in the case of African Americans, shockingly high. Zogby said 36% of blacks approve of the president, as do 37% of Hispanics and 35% of Asians. Approval among independent voters is also up, to 44%. And “intriguingly,” said Zogby, 23% of Democrats approve of Trump.

t was the latest to show that Trump’s approval went up during the Democratic National Convention. Rasmussen Reports had it at 51% at the end of the convention. In a shock from past election years, Joe Biden got no convention poll bounce, according to a newly released Reuters/Ipsos poll. [..] Zogby, in his analysis, took a stab at the reasoning. First, he said, his and other polls are confirming that the nation is nearly evenly divided politically and that despite some showing a big Biden lead, the race is extremely close.


He suggested that the battle is for the “10%-20%” who haven’t made their minds up on whom to vote for and who likely won’t make up their minds until Election Day, just like in 2016. “We are as polarized a nation, on a level not seen since the Civil War,” said Zogby. He also said that the violence playing out in cities such as Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Portland, Oregon, are pushing urban voters to Trump.

A fresh Rasmussen poll about Biden’s lead in the polls (which reached double digits not long ago), indicates that there’s not much left of that lead. That, but the way, is similar to a CNN poll a number of weeks ago. Significantly, Rasmussen suggests that: Even if Biden’s now-slim lead in the polls were to remain frozen as of today, Trump would still have a clear path to an electoral college victory.

Biden’s Polling Lead Has Collapsed

Just a month and a half ago, Rasmussen Reports had Joe Biden 10-points ahead of President Donald Trump in the polls. Now he’s only ahead by one point, within the margin of error. Even if Biden’s now-slim lead in the polls were to remain frozen as of today, Trump would still have a clear path to an electoral college victory, as Hillary Clinton lead Trump in the popular vote by just over two points in the 2016 election. While it is impossible to know the exact reason (or reasons) for Biden’s polling collapse, it comes as the economy continues to rebound from the coronavirus, riots continue to ravage liberal run cities longer than anyone expected (to no condemnation from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris)..


[..] Rasmussen was among the closest mainstream pollster in approximating the popular vote in the 2016 election. Rasmussen had Hillary Clinton up 1.7 points over Trump on election day 2016, while she ended up winning the popular vote by 2.1 points above him (48.2% vs. 46.1%). The Real Clear Politics average of polls had Hillary up for six points. Unlike the other polls, Rasmussen correctly saw Trump had a path to victory in the electoral college.

And of course Don Lemon warned yesterday on CNN that Biden has to start addressing the riots, because by remaining silent he’s letting Trump run away with the issue. But it’s not entirely clear how Biden would do that: the Democrats have supported BLM and protesters -as well as rioters- in general for most of the year, and now they would have to turn against them?

The sports boycotts that yesterday came seemingly out of nowhere all at the same time, look like they’re well intentioned but too late. There is too much news, and there are too many videos, out there to keep portraying what’s happening in the streets of Kenosha and Minneapolis and many other cities, as a one-sided problem. There is violence on both, or even many, sides.

Tonight, Thursday August 27, it’s Donald Trump’s turn to address the RNC, and the entire press, the entire nation, will pay attention. Nobody feels they can afford not to. Almost half the country will already have their minds made up about what a terrible person he is, while the other almost half will think he’s doing great. It’s the “10%-20%” who haven’t made their minds up that he must reach, and given how the country feels about violence in the streets, he may well succeed in reaching quite a few.

For which he can thank the DNC. “Orange Man Bad” may have once looked to be a winning strategy, but by now it feels mostly a limiting one.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/ ... g-to-turn/

[Elvis]

For polling, maybe fivethirtyeight has overall most/best info.

You get the average of 50 polls here — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

—and the polls are graded for historical accuracy (Rassmussen gets a "C") and methodology.

Also fun to look at past presidents' approval graphs.

Every day we hear, "You can't believe polls!—just look at the 2016 election!" but no one bothers to consider that vote counts are manipulated.

[Belligerent Savant]

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Indeed, manipulations abound. Perhaps since the onset of U.S. National elections.

The voter is subject to manipulation every day. To the point that, by the time we arrive at Election Day, vote rigging needn't be nearly as dramatic, more often than not. Conditioning/'suggestive' mechanisms do much of the legwork leading up to the big event.

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Perhaps weirdest of all is how we in the US spend two fucking years choosing an executive.

"choosing an executive" should be replaced with the suggested long-winded clarification "being subjected to blatant propaganda/disinfo campaigns -- conditioning programs -- designed to offer the illusion of self-directed selection of the next appointed figurehead".

Yup.

At least out of all this, national health insurance has been dished onto the policy plate. Most of the energy has gone into trying to scrape it back off.

[Belligerent Savant]

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[Grizzly]

https://streamable.com/3dqww3
Queen Nance...


Nancy Pelosi Challenger Shahid Buttar Responds to Allegations | Useful Idiots
timestamp: 35:27 for Shahid Buttar

California Congressional candidate Shahid Buttar, running to unseat Nancy Pelosi, shares his perspective on recent allegations of sexual and workplace misconduct. Matt and Katie break down the Massachusetts primary returns and Trump's Fox News interview with Laura Ingraham

"Buttar vs Pelosi is the most important race in 2020."

"So, Shahid is guilty of the mortal DNC sin of not using professional consultants? No doubt he will end up in Democratic hell."

[Iamwhomiam]

Talk about fear mongering! I listened to this nearly 50 minute long FiveThirtyEight interview and came away with one thing that wiped out all else I thought important that had been mentioned ~ "90%."

Biden would need to win the popular vote by 90% to assure the electoral college will not elect Trump. (If the election was held on the day of the interview (sometime before September 4th. Biden had been ahead in the polls by 7.5 points that day.) Biden winning the popular vote by 8%, a virtual landslide, would not guarantee him victory in the electoral college. Worth listening to it from the beginning, but for the 90% figure only, go to 17 minutes, 16 seconds, to hear the question asked and its answer given.

Trump Has An Electoral College Advantage Again This Cycle

By Galen Druke and Nate Silver Filed under Politics Podcast
Published Sep. 4, 2020

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/trump-has-an-electoral-college-advantage-again-this-cycle/

[Cordelia]

Less than 10 days to go until we (maybe) get to watch two dirty old men debate our fate.

Everything you need to know about the 2020 presidential debates

The first presidential debate between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden is scheduled to take place Sept. 29, and there are two more set for Oct. 15 and 22.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election ... l-debates/

(But who knows because as we now know anything can happen between now and then.)

[Grizzly]

Down with the duopoly. To early? Gold Health care for the guy, nuff said.

[Grizzly]

https://twitter.com/MeanProgress/status/1313652882122641409
This motherfucker ought to be in prison or shot and hung for treason.

GIVE US THE RING!"Biden is a good man. Donald Trump is not." "my precious", "precious"-- General Michael Hayden Sméagol, USAF

[Grizzly]

Late Friday, they’re going to announce that Pence tested positive for COVID ...

[SonicG]

Plague...Insects...Repressed homosexual demons...Say "Hello" to President Fancy Ice Cream...

[Grizzly]

Everybody knows Cheney put that fly in Mikes booth.