Market Crash Watch Party

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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:58 pm

Wombaticus Rex » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:23 pm wrote:
Perhaps the most important longer-term negative of these three bubbles, compressed into 25 years, has been a sustained pressure increasing inequality

Why does he imply the current asset bubble dates back to 1997? That cycle went bust between 2007-2009 for both residential and commercial real estate as far as I understand. The assets where recycled back onto the market to begin the cycle we are currently in.

The savings & loans crisis of the 80s rolled over into 90s, and some of the left over commercial real estate held by the RTC and FDIC, which the government couldn't even pay private equity to take off their books, was bundled into REITs by firms like BlackRock starting in the mid 90s(1997 was when they actually started using REITs for fund-raising instead off just offloading). Then I read some stuff suggesting that these commercial mortgage backed securities, derived from commercial real estate mortgages made all the way back in the mid 80s, finally matured(?) in 2009. But this went unnoticed because all eyes were on the residential market which collapsed the year before.

Late 90s is an odd place to begin things, because the beginning of what we are experiencing was the departure from Bretton woods and the beginning of a kind of classical conditioning of the economy with stimuli induced action-response cycles through control of key positions within the US Fed and Treasury. And since that was an economic foreign policy epoch, you could even take it back to the JFK assassination after which all the new dealers were purged in the LBJ admin and replaced with pure bred Rockefeller apparatchik's like Peter Peterson, Kissinger, Volcker etc.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:56 am

drstrangelove » Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:58 pm wrote:
Wombaticus Rex » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:23 pm wrote:
Perhaps the most important longer-term negative of these three bubbles, compressed into 25 years, has been a sustained pressure increasing inequality

Why does he imply the current asset bubble dates back to 1997? That cycle went bust between 2007-2009 for both residential and commercial real estate as far as I understand. The assets where recycled back onto the market to begin the cycle we are currently in.


Because neither the dot com nor the GFC bubbles were actually unwound. In Buffett folksism, that great tide which reveals who was swimming naked never came: Fed stimulus kept zombie firms shuffling along. Ortho-econ heads object to this strenuously, pointing to the token implosions that get associated with both crashes, but those were small fry, especially considering an environment where everyone was sitting on a balance sheet of worthless assets and exponentially leveraged debt.

All that said, of course, market history is matter opinion and Grantham just has a different opinion. Given the nested holarchy of policy, personnel and regulatory capture at play here, though, the man has a solid point. It really has been one continuous clusterfuck since the salad days of Bill Clinton sax solos.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Belligerent Savant » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:44 pm

Belligerent Savant » Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:01 am wrote:

...

I think you are right that all the actions and mandates being taken over the past couple years are having a “crash now, late, you chumps” effect. I wouldn’t be shocked if this was on purpose.

I also would not be surprised if the financial decisions that have been made post ‘08 were made to make people lose faith in fiat (and physical) currency, the better to prep minds for CBDCs. Almost like they are trying to crash finance on purpose. The choices various central banks and major economic players have made feel exactly like the choices the medical establishment has made, which almost uniformly enhanced the covid crisis. One oops is an accident. Every choice being an oops is not.

...


https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/167351 ... mt25035703
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:39 pm



Tesla -11.5%

See, this will be your job in the future. You'll dress up in a robot suit for a social credit score so technocrats can pretend to live in the world they failed to build.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:55 am

When Dec 31st 2021 ticked over into Jan 1st 2022 the method used to calculate interests rates on mortgages(LIBOR) was replaced with a new method(SOFR).

What Does the Transition Mean for Mortgages and Other Securitized Products?

Different securitized products reference LIBOR in underlying loans, the bonds themselves, swaps within deals, and any combination thereof.

Legacy non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) are the most exposed, since most reference LIBOR. However, this group represents a small and shrinking share of the market. At its peak, the non-agency RMBS market was valued at more than $2 trillion. Today, that market has a rough outstanding value of $400 billion—less than $250 billion of which still references LIBOR.

- https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/lib ... on-to-sofr

Non-agency RMBS issuance is on track for a new post-2008 record. Year-to-date, new issue has reached $119 billion, surpassing 2020’s full-year volume and just 12% below 2019’s record year($135.4 billion).

- https://structuredfinance.org/wp-conten ... -RMBS-.pdf

Since Jan 1st 2022, REITS and REIT-ETFS have fallen 10-15% in stock price.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Fri Feb 18, 2022 8:35 pm

One by one, over the past few weeks, tech companies have been going through a controlled demolition. One day one takes a 20% hit. Then the next day another takes a 20% hit.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:22 am

November Sets New Record for Emergency Rental Assistance Disbursed—$2.9 Billion to Aid 665,000 Households—As Eviction Filings Remain Below Pre-Pandemic Levels Nationally
- https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0551

the treasury spent $3 billion last November in propping up the housing market.

this rent relief program is being over seen by former BlackRock staffer and personal assistant to Larry Fink, Wally Adeyemo.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:38 am

Australian stock market has been live and reacting to this for the last few hours, at close our indexes are down about 2.5-3%. Oil prices are up around $96.

You will take your austerity with a side of national pride. While your savings dwindle find solace in your two minutes of hate for Vladimir Putin each and every day.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:56 am

Oil up to $110 now. Unsure how long this will take to trickle down through the economy. Probably don't need to say this here, but now would be a good time to start food Prep if you haven't done so already. They are going to bleed us, and when people complain they will tell us to shut the fuck up and be glad we aren't Ukraine.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Fri Mar 11, 2022 8:21 pm

Stocks Turn Lower to Finish the Week
Technology stocks extended their declines Friday, dragging broader indexes to weekly losses, as volatility reigned and inflation fears heightened.

Stocks opened the day higher, as traders bought stocks after Russian President Vladimir Putin said in televised remarks that there had been positive developments during talks with Ukraine, even as Russian forces continue to pound Ukrainian cities. By the afternoon, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite had all turned lower, as investors weighed the risk of heading into the weekend holding stocks.

All three indexes finished the week in the red after Friday’s selloff. The Dow industrials closed down about 2% for the period, its fifth consecutive weekly loss. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively, for the week, capping the fourth weekly loss in the past five weeks for both indexes. Of the three major indexes, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down the most so far this year, falling 18% through Friday’s close.

Big swings are now commonplace for major stock indexes, but even by current standards this week’s jumps and falls were extreme, some investors and traders said. On Monday, soaring oil prices sent stocks tumbling, with the S&P 500 posting its worst day in over a year. Two days later, the benchmark index jumped 2.6%, its biggest gain since 2020.

- https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-sto ... 1646987861

All the big tech firms have been splitting their stock so it can be offloaded easier to retail investors. Stock split = if you had 1 stock worth $1000, you now have 2 stocks worth $500, so can sell it to people who are poorer.

Massive pump and dumps on the way down aswell.

Many technology stocks are going to be worthless as we trend from an economy of desires into one of needs. Marketing budgets will be slashed in all industries as surplus household cash is sucked up into food, energy, and rents. No matter how good your marketing is, if your product is non-addictive it can't compete with basic human needs. Tech platforms reliant on advertising dollars will lose revenue and come to rely on subscription services, which they've realized for a while now. But subscription services will be the first to go when household budgets get tightened even further. Why pay $15 a month for Netflix/Prime etc. when you can pirate it for free? And the one positive thing poverty creates are closer interpersonal relationships between people. People huddle together for comfort and support within communities, build stronger interpersonal relationships which replace the cosmetic human contact they had sought through their TV screen.

Not to mention most US tech stocks don't pay dividends while most beneficial owners of them don't vote them. A stock which does not pay a dividend(rent) to its owner or voted by its owner is for all effective purposes no different than an NFT. Though technically as long as stock maintains voting rights regardless of who options it, then there is still intrinsic value through control of the underlying asset.

Everyone is waiting for technology stocks to hit bottom. I know I am. But the bottom I feel is six feet below ground level and most won't resurrect from the dead. The near-future of markets appears to be in food, security, and energy. I leave out shelter because the real estate market is compromised.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Grizzly » Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:58 pm

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buffett-berkshire-hathaway-occidental-51647481982
Berkshire Hathaway Again Boosts Its Stake in Occidental Petroleum - MarketWatch
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:22 am

5-Count Felon JPMorgan Is at the Center of a New, Multi-Billion Dollar Trading Scandal

Traders who feel they were robbed of their profits trading nickel last week at the London Metal Exchange (LME) have taken to Twitter to verbally accuse the LME of favoring their “cronies” and behaving like “slime balls.”

Lining up as crony suspect Number 1 are units of JPMorgan Chase who, together, hold the largest number of Class B shares in the London Metal Exchange than any other member. Those units are J.P. Morgan Markets Limited with 25,000 shares; J.P. Morgan Metals Limited with 19,100 shares; and J.P. Morgan Securities with 25,000 shares for a total of 69,100 Class B shares, according to a listing of shareholders on the LME’s website.

In addition, the CEO of the Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX), which bought the LME in 2012, is Nicolas Aguzin. He joined the HKEX last May after spending 31 years at JPMorgan. Aguzin also serves as a Board Member of the LME, where his bio notes that “from 2013 to 2020, Mr. Aguzin was CEO, J.P. Morgan, Asia Pacific where he was responsible for all the firm’s business across 17 markets.”

The reason that both the LME and JPMorgan are taking the heat from traders who say they were “robbed” of their profits, is that one of JPMorgan’s clients – the Chinese nickel and steel producer Tsingshan Holding Group – had secretly built up a massive short position in nickel, using both contracts at the LME and also over-the-counter derivative contracts with JPMorgan and other banks. When the price of nickel began to spike dramatically higher last Tuesday, the banks scurried to try to close out their short positions in nickel by buying back the contracts. That heavy buying pushed the price of nickel to a record $100,000 a metric ton and the banks could no longer afford to keep buying to close their short positions.

Bloomberg News has named JPMorgan as the largest counterparty to the Tsingshan trades while the Wall Street Journal has indicated that Standard Chartered and BNP Paribas are also involved.

It is believed that at some point last Tuesday the banks came clean with the LME as to what their total derivative exposure was and to the massive losses they would experience if the trading that occurred last Tuesday was allowed to stand. What is not in dispute is that the LME suspended trading in nickel last Tuesday and cancelled all of the thousands of trades that had occurred last Tuesday prior to the suspension of trading. The cancelled trades benefited the short positions but left other traders with profitable long positions out in the cold. (You can read all of the LME’s pronouncements about cancelled nickel trades and the like at this official link.)

In addition, to give JPMorgan and the other banks involved time to figure out a solution to their self-made mess, the LME has suspended trading in nickel since last Tuesday. Yesterday, the LME posted a notice stating that “trading in LME Nickel Contracts will resume at 08:00 [a.m.] London time on Wednesday 16 March 2022.”

As our readers might recall, it was secret derivative contracts in concentrated positions of certain stocks held by the big banks on behalf of the Archegos hedge fund last March that cost major global banks over $10 billion in losses. And yet, here we are again talking about secret derivative contracts and potentially heavy losses for banks.

Tsingshan’s controlling shareholder is Xiang Guangda, who is believed to have been behind the idea of going short billions of dollars in nickel. Yesterday, Bloomberg News reported that Guangda had “reached a deal with his banks for a standstill agreement to avoid further margin calls. During the standstill period, Xiang Guangda’s Tsingshan Group Holding Co. and its banks will continue discussions about a secured credit facility to cover the company’s nickel margin and settlement requirements….”

As we pointed out in our past reporting on Archegos, margin loans are supposed to be federally-regulated so that systemically-important banks like JPMorgan Chase don’t blow themselves up and leave the taxpayer on the hook for a bailout. We emailed the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the U.K., which oversees the LME, as well as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that oversees commodity trading at JPMorgan, to see if they were involved in providing oversight to this dangerous mess. The FCA responded promptly, and in a typical fashion, the CFTC remained silent.

The FCA said this:

“As a regulated investment exchange, the London Metal Exchange (LME) is responsible for the maintenance of fair and orderly markets. Together with the Bank of England, we have been engaging with LME’s exchange and clearing house, as well as other market participants, on an orderly resumption of the market in nickel.”

The FCA statement might give us some comfort were it not for the fact that the biggest bank involved in this mess – JPMorgan Chase – has admitted to five criminal felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice since 2014. The man at the helm of the bank as its Chairman and CEO throughout that crime spree, Jamie Dimon, was not only allowed to keep his job but was handed a $50 million bonus by the bank’s Board of Directors.

Three of the felony counts involved the rigging of markets: one felony count the bank admitted to in 2015 was for its role in rigging foreign exchange trading. On September 29, 2020, the Justice Department charged JPMorgan Chase with two more felony counts involving rigged trading, to which it admitted, and fined the bank $920 million of shareholders’ money. One count was for rigging the precious metals market and the other was for rigging trading in U.S. Treasury securities.

And this is not the first time that megabanks on Wall Street have come under scrutiny for crony conduct at the London Metal Exchange and playing an improper role in physical commodity markets. The U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations conducted a two-year investigation and released a stunning 396-page bipartisan report in 2014.

Findings from the report include the following regarding JPMorgan:

“The Subcommittee report details how JPMorgan amassed physical commodity holdings equal to nearly 12 percent of its Tier 1 capital, while telling regulators its holdings were far smaller; and that at one point it owned an amount equal to more than half the aluminum used in North America in a year.”

That JPMorgan is at the center of yet another trading scandal is an indictment of Congress and federal regulators to meaningfully reform Wall Street.


I had no idea the LME was ultimately under Chinese control; quite a coup to land the title to some key City infrastructure.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Belligerent Savant » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:25 am

.

Related:

@RudyHavenstein
·
Mar 18

Great example of how @federalreserve mandarins are completely out of touch with the real world.

And they seemingly WANT to be completely out of touch with the real world.

From "The Lords of Easy Money" #ZIRP

Image

https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/stat ... R7t1pluRxQ

ZIRP = Zero Interest Rate Policy
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Grizzly » Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:22 pm

Meanwhile...

Read this story while remembering Joe Biden wants them to sacrifice for Ukraine.

"The death spiral of an American family"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/03/20/intergenerational-wealth-middle-class-spiral/
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby drstrangelove » Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:04 pm

Evergrande Delays Results as Banks Seize $2 Billion at Unit
China Evergrande Group said Tuesday that it was working to raise fresh funds after it disclosed that banks had taken control of more than $2 billion held by one of its key subsidiaries.

The surprise announcement comes two months after Evergrande first kicked off restructuring talks with creditors, who had previously threatened to sue the company for failing to disclose adequate information to them after the company defaulted on its offshore debts in December.

During its second official call with offshore creditors, Evergrande warned Tuesday that there may be additional pledges and guarantees made from the company’s offshore subsidiaries to onshore entities, which may ultimately erode how much creditors will recover from their investments in Evergrande.

Still, the company urged foreign creditors to hold tight as it finalizes a global restructuring plan, which it said is on track to be delivered by July.

“The company is compiling information for its contingent liabilities and will continue to maintain communication with investors,” said Liang Senlin, a recently appointed Evergrande executive who also works for Chinese bad-debt manager China Cinda Asset Management Co. , in translated remarks during a pre-scripted Q&A session on Tuesday’s call with creditors.

The move by banks to seize the $2 billion adds fresh uncertainty to Evergrande’s restructuring. Global bondholders view its two big Hong Kong-listed subsidiaries, which focus on property management and car making, as important sources of potential value for international creditors.

Evergrande said this was a “major incident” that came to light during a review of the property-services subsidiary’s annual financial report, and it would be probed by independent committees at both companies. The sum is close to the entire 14 billion yuan of total bank deposits and cash that the subsidiary reported as of the end of June 2021.

On the call, Evergrande attempted to convey an upbeat tone about the rest of its business lines. The company had resumed construction on about 80% of its projects as of February and had announced 353 new projects since the beginning of 2022, executives said. It also had reached agreements with around 70% of its contractors to keep working on existing and new real-estate projects.

Evergrande also noted it was working to bring in third-party investors to buttress the finances of the property-management group, even though it reported the basic operations of the subsidiary were “generally stable.”

It also said it was seeking third-party financing to support its electric-vehicle unit, which is planning to start mass production of its Hengchi 5 SUV in late June.

Hidden debt has proved a problem for China’s property sector. Investors have been caught out by off-balance-sheet liabilities that weren’t previously disclosed to investors or credit-rating companies, such as guarantees on wealth-management products or private loans.

A $2.6 billion deal to sell a majority stake in Evergrande Property Services to a rival developer fell apart in October.

Evergrande, Evergrande Property Services and China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd. all said Tuesday that “a large number of additional audit procedures” and the pandemic meant they couldn’t publish annual audited results by March 31, as required in Hong Kong.

All three companies had halted trading in their shares before the market opened on Monday. Exchange rules meant their stock would likely remain suspended until the results were published, the trio said Tuesday. Evergrande executives said on Tuesday’s call that the company’s auditors need more time “to confirm the financial situation at the three firms” following news about the guarantees at the property-management arm.

Evergrande is China’s most-indebted property developer, with the equivalent of more than $300 billion in liabilities as of June 2021.

With the broader property industry in crisis, other developers have also delayed the release of financial information. Ronshine China Holdings Ltd. said Monday the audit work for its annual results wouldn’t be completed on time after its auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers resigned.

Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. said Monday it expects a delay because of disruptions caused by Covid-19 and slowness in obtaining third-party confirmations for its audit.

Auditors have become more cautious because they might be held responsible if property companies default after releasing audited annual results, said an analyst at a Singapore-based brokerage. They could be questioned by authorities if debt disclosures prove inaccurate or incomplete, he said.

PricewaterhouseCoopers is also Evergrande’s auditor. In October, Hong Kong’s Financial Reporting Council said it had begun an investigation of PwC’s audit and an inquiry into Evergrande’s recent accounts.

Separately Tuesday, Evergrande said it had hired the law firm King & Wood Mallesons to bolster its advisory team. It is already working with institutions including Houlihan Lokey Inc., Hong Kong-based Admiralty Harbour Capital Ltd., China International Capital Corp. , BOCI Asia Ltd. and Zhong Lun Law Firm LLP.

“The company fully understands concerns about the property-management business,” said Xiao En, executive director at China Evergrande Group. “We sincerely request creditors’ support…not to take any aggressive actions in the near term, so the company can have [the] necessary time to progress our holistic debt restructuring plan.”

- https://www.wsj.com/articles/evergrande ... 1647932131



This scale of superfluous construction hasn't been seen since ancient Egypt
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