by Sokolova » Sun Aug 28, 2005 1:17 pm
Since 911 we’ve had a steady run of <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>doomsday-bug </em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END-->scenarios offered up by the media haven't we? We’ve had the smallpox scare(remember that?), the anthrax scare, the SARS scare, and now the Bird Flu scare. <br><br>They all have certain things in common too. They are all persistently plugged in the media, while simultaneously, the same media is telling us the government wants to keep the whole thing quiet and wants to avoid ‘panic’. This sounds the first false note to me. In my experience when the government wants something to be kept quiet – it <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>is</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END-->. It doesn’t get headlines in the mainstream press, it doesn’t get extensive coverage on tv. <br><br>Another other thing that they all (at least to date) have in common is that the ‘threat’ seems to suddenly and almost magically vanish after a certain period of time, never to appear again in the public consciousness. What happened to the threat of terrorists using smallpox to kill us all? Or anthrax? What happened to SARS? <br><br>The third thing that many of them seem to have in common (maybe all of them for I know, but I’m being cautious) is that they are either exceedingly exaggerated or seem bogus in some way, and tend to depend for the validation on irrational thinking or extreme projections of highly improbable odds.<br><br>The ‘smallpox’ scare for example. Any MD who had bothered to stop and think, and certainly any virologist, could have told the policy-makers and journalists who were marketing the panic, that either strain of smallpox (there are two, one serious, one not) is one of the lousiest candidates for germ-warfare imaginable. It has a very low sustainability outside a host – meaning it would die fairly quickly if just floating about in the atmosphere. To get infected you’d actually need to be coughed on by an infected person, which makes mass-infection a pretty cumbersome process, and we might notice a lot of Arab-types going about coughing on people. <br><br> The other problem with it as a warfare agent is it becomes infectious person-to-person only after the sores have developed when the carrier is extremely noticeable and easy to identify, and also feeling pretty lousy, so probably not up to a lot of strolling about and coughing on people. There are, in short, numerous viruses that would be far better suited to germ-warfare than smallpox.<br><br>SARS again offered a similar scenario of exaggeration. It was presented as a potential world wide killer, but based on what? Around 8000 suspected cases and around 650 deaths. And the keyword there is ‘<!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>suspected</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END-->’ It’s actually not too easy to know what particular virus is causing a disease. Doctors are human, they are susceptible to panic and to lazy assumption-making. If they know (or have been told) SARS is a danger then any case of viral pneumonia coming into the ER can become SARS overnight. The highest estimated mortality rate of around 9% is therefore largely a guess, as I don’t believe the virus will have been isolated in each of these cases. The lower mortality rate estimate of around 2% is not much higher than a bad flu season. <br><br>To really understand the impact of SARS would take a lot more distance in time and a lot more research than has presently been done. It’s possible there’s something serious, but equally possible there isn’t. The story as sold by the media is extreme, simplistic an desperately alarmist. <br><br>And now we have ‘Bird Flu’; the Independent today carries a huge double-page spread on the disease, claiming it as the potential killer of ‘2 million’ people in Britain, and that mortuaries are 'secretly' (the kind of secretly that makes a center-page of a national paper) being asked to make plans for an extra 750,000 deaths.<br><br>But wait a minute. To date this flu has infected just over a hundred people in Asia. Okay around half of them have died, and it is not a disease we would wish to get – but at the moment it is not even transmittable from human to human - you have to catch it from a<!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em> bird.</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> The ‘potential’ for 2 million deaths in the UK is based on the virus mutating into a state that can be transmitted person-to-person. This may happen of course – and if it does then there'd be some basis for all the prophesies of coming doom. Currently there isn't much.<br><br>So, what is going on? I can’t help noticing both SARS and bird flu seem to have originated in China. No idea what that means but still seems worth observing.<br><br>All that talk of the government wanting to ‘calm things down’, while simultaneously various spokes-people for various public organizations are making extreme claims for the coming death-rate suggest to me this is to some extent orchestrated. The idea that mortuaries are really being prompted to prepare for extra deaths on the basis of a possible future mutation of a virus that has still not even migrated beyond Asia seems unlikely to me. That claim sounds like a deliberate plant to manipulate public understanding.<br><br>So, are we being slowly psyched into accepting the new pandemic and the deaths of millions? Has each successive false alarm (smallpox, anthrax, SARS) been a gradual softening up for the coming big one? Or is it simpler than that? Are the predictions of disaster and the climate of suppressed hysteria the end product in themselves? Are we just being scared into submission? <br><br>Ellie <p></p><i>Edited by: <A HREF=http://p216.ezboard.com/brigorousintuition.showUserPublicProfile?gid=sokolova>Sokolova</A> at: 8/28/05 1:06 pm<br></i>