by Qutb » Mon Nov 07, 2005 6:36 pm
I'd like to comment further on the "flashes" reported by two eyewitnesses, Gregory Stephen and Karin Deshore, both because I find this interesting, and because it can serve as a lesson in evaluating "anecdotal" evidence, especially eyewitness reports. There are some people here who could benefit from such a lesson, I think. <br><br>st4 posted links to the interviews with Stephen and Deshore above, and links to some videos of controlled demolition. The unstated implication seems to be that 1) the two report the same phenomenon, and 2) this can be regarded as evidence of a controlled demolition of the WTC towers. I disagree with both of these assumptions.<br><br>In <!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://georgewashington.blogspot.com/2005/10/another-911-smoking-gun.html" target="top">this</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--> blog, linked to in one of the earlier posts in this thread, this question is asked, rhetorically: <!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>Does the above-described evidence tend to prove that controlled demolition explosives were used in the twin towers? Or could a series of orange and red flashes accompanied by popping sounds immediately prior to the collapse of the towers have been caused by something else?<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>The obvious answer, first: we know what caused the towers to collapse, as I've outlined above. There are photos that show the floors sagging like boiled spaghetti right where the collapses initiate, so any discussion about whether the fires were hot enough or whether UL had certified the steel or whatever, are of purely academic interest. The steel couldn't take the heat, and that's a proven fact. There are hundreds of videos showing both collapses from all possible angles, and they all show the same thing: both collapses initiate where the planes hit, where the fires were most extensive, where the floors sagged and the walls bowed inward. <br><br>But what about the flashes, then? Didn't I see the flashes in the videos of explosive demolition? Isn't that PROOF? <!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/nyregion/20050812_WTC_GRAPHIC/Gregory_Stephen.txt" target="top">Gregory Stephen</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--> also says that a colleague he talked to on the phone confirmed having seen flashes, so that's three independent eyewitnesses who have all seen these flashes, right? Well, maybe not. <br><br>First of all, Gregory is talking about WTC2, while Karin is talking about WTC1. Secondly, though they both use the word "flashes", are they describing the same thing? Here's Gregory:<br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>Q. Do you recall at any time, particularly when you were on West Street, any companies whose vehicles may have been parked near where you were?<br><br>A. No. I know I was with an officer from Ladder 146, a Lieutenant Evangelista, who ultimately called me up a couple of days later just to find out how I was. We both for whatever reason -- again, I don't know how valid this is with everything that was going on at that particular point in time, but <!--EZCODE BOLD START--><strong>for some reason I thought that when I looked in the direction of the Trade Center before it came down, before No. 2 came down, that I saw low-level flashes. In my conversation with Lieutenant Evangelista, never mentioning this to him, he questioned me and asked me if I saw low-level flashes in front of the building, and I agreed with him because I thought -- at that time I didn't know what it was. I mean, it could have been as a result of the building collapsing, things exploding, but I saw a flash flash flash and then it looked like the building came down</strong><!--EZCODE BOLD END-->.<br><br>Q. Was that on the lower level of the building or up where the fire was?<br><br>A. No, the lower level of the building. You know like when they demolish a building, how when they blow up a building, when it falls down? That's what I thought I saw. And I didn't broach the topic to him, but he asked me. He said I don't know if I'm crazy, but I just wanted to ask you because you were standing right next to me. He said did you see anything by the building? And I said what do you mean by see anything? He said did you see any flashes? I said, yes, well, I thought it was just me. He said no, I saw them, too.<br><br>I don't know if that means anything. I mean, I equate it to the building cowing down and pushing things down, it could have been electrical explosions, it could have been whatever. But it's just strange that two people sort of say the same thing and neither one of us talked to each other about it. I mean, I don't know this guy from a hole in the wall. I was just standing next to him. i never met the man before in my life. He knew who was I guess by my name on my coat and he called me up, you know, how are you doing? How's everything? And, oh, by the way did you... It was just a little strange.<br><br>Q. On the television pictures it appeared as well, before the first collapse, that there was an explosion up on the upper floors.<br><br>A. I know about the explosion on the upper floors. This was like eye level. I didn't have to go like this. Because I was looking this way. I'm not going to say it was on the first floor or the second floor, but somewhere in that area I saw to me what appeared to be flashes. I don't know how far down this was already. I mean, we had heard the noise but, you know, I don't know.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br>He doesn't say how many flashes there were, but from the quote "flash flash flash", let's assume there were at least three. They were all on the first or second floor. Needless to say, nothing that happened on the first or second floor did anything to cause a collapse which started with floor 82 and then progresed downward one floor at the time. If these flashes had been explosives meant to demolish the building, they would have had some kind of visible impact on the floor they were seen, like causing it to collapse (which would have been the purpose), but this is not reported. I haven't been able to find any videos that show the first few floors of WTC2 as it collapses, so this can't be verified by videographic evidence. But of the several hundred videos that exist of the collapse, none of them show any kind of "flashes" on the visible floors. Those who saw the videos st4 provided of controlled demolitions will have noted that those flashes not only had a physical impact on the floors where they were seen, but were also visible on the video clips.<br><br>But if they weren't explosives, what could they have been? I dunno, but as Gregory puts it himself, "it could have been electrical explosions, it could have been whatever". Like, say, <!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.g-m-tech.com/products/Iriss/nfpa-70e.cfm" target="top">arc flashes</a><!--EZCODE LINK END-->. This is what they look like:<br><br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.g-m-tech.com/web_images/arc_flash.jpg" style="border:0;"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>An arc flash is a discharge of current through the air. They happen all the time, dozens every day in America, 5-10 resulting in severe injury daily. They can happen in most electrical systems. "In an arc flash incident, an enormous amount of concentrated radiant energy explodes out wards from the electrical equipment (see video), creating pressure waves that can damage a persons hearing, a <!--EZCODE BOLD START--><strong>high-intensity flash that can damage their eyesight</strong><!--EZCODE BOLD END--> and a superheated ball of gas that can severely burn a workers body and melt metal. The pressure waves can also send loose material like pieces of damaged equipment, tools and other objects flying through the air."<br><br>So what can have caused arc flashes on the first or second floor of the WTC as it came down and what are the chances of three of them happening simultaneously at the same location? I have no idea. Apparently, "the vast majority of arc flash incidents occur when there is a change of state within the panel (opening the panel doors, removing covers, etc) or through operator error". Whether the unusual circumstances for some reason could have triggered such "electrical explosions", as Gregory suggests the flashes might have been, is not a question I can answer, but that's not the point.<br><br>I'm not trying to argue that the two firemen saw arc flashes, my point is that you have an eyewitness who has seen something (apparently corroborated by a colleague), but he isn't sure what it was and he doesn't seem to think it's very important. Like he says himself, it could have been whatever, and there's no reason to assume a radical and wildly unlikely interpretation which contradicts all other evidence. <br><br>This is a good rule of thumb when evaluating all such "anecdotal" evidence. For instance, explosion-like events and sounds and actual explosions are common during fires. In serious fires, heated gases can cause big explosions. Explosions can also be caused by short-circuits in the eletrical system, and if you have vaporized jet fuel in a building, as in the WTC, a spark is enough to set off an explosion. If someone in a burning building reports explosions, explosive charges or bombs are generally the least likely causes. <br><br>In addition, at the WTC, jet fuel which travelled down the elevator shafts caused explosions in the lobbies and basements, which was initially mistaken for bombs. That's why there were initial reports of a "secondary device" etc.<br><br>But back to the flashes. I still haven't discussed Karin Deshore's <!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://sfgate.com/gate/pictures/2005/09/10/ga_karin_deshore.pdf" target="top">account</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--> (p. 15):<br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>I went outside to see what I can do, then I saw the second building of the World Trade Centre [she means WTC1, because WTC2 had already collapsed], still unbeknown to me the first one had collapsed. <br><br><!--EZCODE BOLD START--><strong>Somewhere around the middle of the world trade center there was this orange and red flash coming out</strong><!--EZCODE BOLD END-->. Initially it was just one flash then this flash just kept popping all the way around the building and that building had started to explode. And with each popping sound it was initially an orange and then red flash came out of the building and then it would just go all around the building on both sides. As far as could see these popping sounds and the explosions were getting bigger going both up and down and then all around the building.<br><br>I went inside and I told everybody that the other building or there was an explosion occurring up there and I think we have another major explosion.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>The previous "major explosion" she's referring to is the collapse of WTC2, which she took to be an explosion (p. 10):<br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>All I know is I had to run because I thought there was an explosion. (...) I thought it was just a major explosion. I didn't know the building was collapsing.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br>She seems to have a penchant for describing things as "an explosion", as we shall see. But that's not the only peculiarity in how she expresses herself:<br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>I ran about 10, 12 feet up this little grassy hill, and by then this force and this sound caught up with me already. I threw myself behind the last support column of the pedestrian overpass. It became pitch dark. The sound got worse, the force just kept passing me. <!--EZCODE BOLD START--><strong>At times I thought it was like an orange light maybe, coming past me.</strong><!--EZCODE BOLD END--><hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br>What's with the orange lights? <br><br>There are some notable differences with what Gregory reported to have seen on the first or second floor of WTC2. First, the flashes Gregory saw were only visible just before or just after the collapse started. He didn't mention any sounds, nor any explosions or visible effects of the flashes. Karin, on the other hand, describes flashes popping all the way around the building, accompanied by "explosions", which were getting bigger and bigger and going up and down the building. It's clear from the account that she became aware of this long before the collapse, as she and the people she's with in the meantime pick up an injured fireman, other injured people, and some elderly ladies, and walk down to the water with them. After which "the explosions are getting bigger and louder and bigger and louder". So the "explosions" were still going on, and the building still hadn't collapsed (p. 16). She was worried that the building could "totally explode".<br><br>Still some time passes before the collapse, and Karin thought "here was another explosion coming".<br><br>What Karin Deshore is saying, if we are to take it literally, is that there were orange and red flashes all around the building, going up and down, long before the collapse, and that these were accompanied by popping sounds which became explosions which got progressively bigger and louder up until the collapse. Note that this goes on for what must be <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>at least</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> 15 minutes, before the collapse of WTC1.<br><br>This is, of course, nothing like what Gregory reported at WTC2.<br><br>Neither does it resemble any kind of controlled demolition.<br><br>But more importantly, none of the hundreds of videos that exist of WTC1 up until and during the collapse show anything like this going on. No one else have reported seeing these orange and red flashes, or any other kind of flashes at WTC1. Karin had another peculiar remark about "orange light" which it's hard to interpret but which doesn't sem to <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>literally</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> refer to orange light. <br><br>I'm not suggesting that she was hallucinating, though that's known to happen when people are under extreme stress. But her somewhat confused account of what was happening at WTC1 doesn't seem to agree with what any of the videos show, and with what any other eyewitnesses are saying. So, you know, maybe it's not a good idea to use her account as "proof" of anything, least of all of a controlled demolition.<br><br>Eyewitness accounts are notoriously unreliable, especially after traumatic and chaotic events like 9/11. And, I wasn't there, but I can't imagine anyone on site having the full picture of what was going on. For instance, Karin Deshore though the entire collpase of WTC2 was "an explosion". It's advisable to keep this in mind, before seizing on, say, a dispatch from that morning saying "we suspect a secondary device" or whatever, as proof of anything other than the chaos that reigned. <br><br>Similarly, if someone recalls that the collapse of one of the towers started at a lower floor than where hundreds of videos show it started, then that person's recollection is in error. It's really rather asinine to think that one person's obviously false recollection can negate all photographic and videographic evidence and the accounts of all other eyewitnesses.<br><br>Oh, and by the way - regarding the "molten steel" reported by American Free Press (that most unimpeachable of sources). If there really was molten metal there, it was in all likelyhood aluminum. <p></p><i></i>
